Let's Talk rookie picks in the 2nd round (12 team league) (1 Viewer)

[bigreese82]

I have a couple of picks in the second round of a rookie draft(Non-IDP). I was trying to find out where I could find the consensus rookie picks for the last 3-4 years and the hit/miss ratio by position?

Has experience shown you that you should trade 2nd round rookie picks?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

You can get great RB and WR value in the 2nd round. I think the possible ROI is much great than what you can get in straight up trades - that being said, I do use them as throw-ins to close a deal for an elite player.

 

[Warhogs]

I don't have finite data that you are looking for but as part of my homework I looked at what went in round 2 of our dynasty league last year. It is a 12 team league. About 90% of the guys drafted in round 2 last year look like good players at this time. I think round 2 picks are still pretty valuable in a 12 team no IDP league. Last year it really tailed off after round 2.

 

[cstu]

Anyone have past rookie drafts?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Anyone have past rookie drafts?

The majority of these guys should have been available: 2006

Cutler

Norwood

Jones-Drew

Marshall

Jennings

Scheffler

Calhoun

Lewis

Klopfenstein

Pope

Jackson

Clemens

2005

Barber

Fason

Moats

Clarett

Campbell

Frye

Morency

White

Brown

Bradley

Murphy

 

[LHUCKS]

I drafted Greg Jennings in the second round last year...if you keep your ears open you can consistently land gems.

 

[EBF]

I have a couple of picks in the second round of a rookie draft(Non-IDP). I was trying to find out where I could find the consensus rookie picks for the last 3-4 years and the hit/miss ratio by position?

Has experience shown you that you should trade 2nd round rookie picks?

Here are some recent results from a start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 FLEX, 1 TE PPR league: 2006

2.01 - Jerious Norwood

2.02 - Sinorice Moss

2.03 - Maurice Drew

2.04 - Marcedes Lewis

2.05 - Greg Jennings

2.06 - Jerome Harrison

2.07 - Joe Klopfenstein

2.08 - Zach Hilton (free agent)

2.09 - Leon Washington

2.10 - Kellen Clemens

2.11 - Tarvaris Jackson

2.12 - Leonard Pope

2005

2.01 - Matt Jones

2.02 - Aaron Rodgers

2.03 - Vincent Jackson

2.04 - Adrian McPherson

2.05 - Heath Miller

2.06 - Ciatrick Fason

2.07 - Maurice Clarett

2.08 - Alvin Pearman

2.09 - Vernand Morency

2.10 - Jason Campbell

2.11 - Chris Henry

2.12 - Charlie Frye

2004

2.01 - Lee Evans

2.02 - Cedric Cobbs

2.03 - Josh McCown (free agent)

2.04 - Greg Jones

2.05 - Philip Rivers

2.06 - Michael Clayton

2.07 - Antonio Gates (free agent)

2.08 - Ben Troupe

2.09 - Michael Turner

2.10 - Michael Jenkins

2.11 - Rashaun Woods

2.12 - Devery Henderson

It's tough to draw any meaningful conclusions from this data. High picks like Rashaun Woods and Michael Jenkins have flopped, whereas marginal guys like Michael Turner, Marion Barber, and Brandon Jacobs have offered a major return on the initial investment (Barber and Jacobs went in the 3rd in this league).

There are some rough trends (late round RBs are risky, QBs don't usually give you value), but you really have to evaluate things on a player-to-player basis.

Although guys like Michael Jenkins, Rashaun Woods, and Roddy White look like busts when you consider their high NFL draft position, everyone was always skeptical about their prospects. And is anyone really surprised that Ciatrick Fason, Jerome Harrison, Greg Jones, Alvin Pearman, and Vernand Morency aren't tearing up the NFL? These guys were always spotty options. Anyone who thought they were locks to become NFL starters was kidding himself.

I try to find guys who fit a few criteria:

- Were high NFL draft picks

- Were productive in college

- Pass the eyeball test

- Aren't QBs (because rookie QBs aren't worth drafting, IMO)

You can cut down your bust rate a bit by using these criteria.

 

[Warhogs]

It does appear that your hit to miss ratio is about 50/50. It also seems that those that hit can be every bit as good as the guys taken in the top 4 or 5 picks. Still, there is a lot of good value to be had in round 2.

 

[LHUCKS]

I try to find guys who fit a few criteria:- Were high NFL draft picks- Were productive in college- Pass the eyeball test - Aren't QBs (because rookie QBs aren't worth drafting, IMO) You can cut down your bust rate a bit by using these criteria.

I also have the "holy #### this guy is amazing in training camp" test.Listen to the training camp buzz.See Colston and Jennings.

 

[fatness]

Michael Turner in the second round.

Marion Barber in the third round (after asking "hey, did anyone pick this guy yet?").

Maurice Jones-Drew in the second round.

Oh yeah, there's value there.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I try to find guys who fit a few criteria:- Were high NFL draft picks- Were productive in college- Pass the eyeball test - Aren't QBs (because rookie QBs aren't worth drafting, IMO) You can cut down your bust rate a bit by using these criteria.

I also have the "holy #### this guy is amazing in training camp" test.Listen to the training camp buzz.See Colston and Jennings.

Do not let anyone tell you that the training camp and preseason period is meaningless.

 

[Warhogs]

I try to find guys who fit a few criteria:- Were high NFL draft picks- Were productive in college- Pass the eyeball test - Aren't QBs (because rookie QBs aren't worth drafting, IMO) You can cut down your bust rate a bit by using these criteria.

I also have the "holy #### this guy is amazing in training camp" test.Listen to the training camp buzz.See Colston and Jennings.

Of course Chad Jackson had a lot of buzz too. I just wanted to point out the other side too. I am not willing to say Jackson is a bust either but it would nice to see him get healthy and playing.

 

[EBF]

I try to find guys who fit a few criteria:- Were high NFL draft picks- Were productive in college- Pass the eyeball test - Aren't QBs (because rookie QBs aren't worth drafting, IMO) You can cut down your bust rate a bit by using these criteria.

I also have the "holy #### this guy is amazing in training camp" test.Listen to the training camp buzz.See Colston and Jennings.

Do not let anyone tell you that the training camp and preseason period is meaningless.

Aye. Boldin is another recent example of a guy who made an impact in training camp. Kevin Curtis is a guy that I first took note of in the preseason. He was making nasty catches against the Raiders.

 

[OoOBaby]

2nd round value depends largely on the number of roster spots for your league.

In a 24 man dynasty, you simply can't load up on 3-4 2nd rounders. Too much roster equity wasted. Now if you have 32 roster spots, 2nd rounders are gold. You can let a guy sit for 2 years, and it's not an issue.

You just have to be careful with the ratio of rookies to roster spots on your squad. On a given year, someone might draft 7 rookies, on a 24 roster spot team. Sure it's cool to be "rebuilding", but that's 30% of your roster on coin flips. Toss in injuries, you'll struggle just to find solid starters.

A flier or two is great, just realize that a QB (croyle) might wait 3-4 years before his 1st start. That's a huge investment, when really he might never start. QBs are very costly to invest roster spots in long term.