Let's talk trade scenarios (1 Viewer)

[MLBrandow]

A lot of people talk about how certain teams should be trading down or trading up, but few seem to actually go into detail about it... so let's get a list going of some potential trade scenarios and does anyone know where that "draft pick value chart" is? I can't seem to find it on the net...

It seems to me, if I were the Texans, that since drafting Bush wouldn't really do me any good since I've got a 2,000 yard all-purpose back in Domanick Davis who is NFL-proven, and a Pro Bowl return man in Jerome Mathis, that I'd be drafting him for the sole purpose of trading him.

It also seems to me that if I were really drafting to trade down, I'd take Matt Leinart, since the Saints want him, as do the Titans and Jets, and probably the Raiders as well if they are at 6.

Drafting Leinart would present the same problem as Bush--a slight upgrade that would render an otherwise very capable player worthless.

The most realistic trade scenario I've seen involved the Jets and the Texans, where the Texans would draft Reggie Bush and trade him to the Jets for John Abraham (whom the Jets would franchise and then trade) and their 2nd round draft choice.

The problem I see is this: Tennessee has been awefully quiet about Leinart. I highly doubt that Norm Chow would take Young or Cutler over Leinart. I also believe that the Saints would definitely select Leinart at No.2. This would leave Tennessee with a QB they might not necessarily want in Young or Cutler, and Volek and McNair both back for another year (so they could effectively wait at least one more year before drafting a QB, or take one in the later rounds like an Omar Jacobs or someone).

But Tennessee is going to have a big problem at Left Tackle, and they have also been very quiet about D'Brickashaw Ferguson. Brad Hopkins is going into his 14th year, and may well retire this offseason (I don't believe he's decided yet). I am pretty sure I've read somewhere though that if he comes back, 2006 will be his last season.

That means if the Texans traded down to four, they run the risk of losing Ferguson to the Titans, and then choosing between Young, Cutler, Hawk, Mario Williams, etc etc. So they would likely just have to trade down again. I don't see any real benefit out of that.

That's just one, but I'd like to hear some well thought-out ideas on some scenarios; however unlikely.

I know that there was a rumor going around that the Texans would trade Dom Davis to the Vikings for Troy Williamson, but I doubt this is true for salary cap reasons. Davis just signed a huge extension last offseason, and the cap hit would be pretty big unless I'm completely wrong.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

The problem I see is this: Tennessee has been awefully quiet about Leinart. I highly doubt that Norm Chow would take Young or Cutler over Leinart.

I know that there was a rumor going around that the Texans would trade Dom Davis to the Vikings for Troy Williamson, but I doubt this is true for salary cap reasons. Davis just signed a huge extension last offseason, and the cap hit would be pretty big unless I'm completely wrong.

1) I was unaware that Chow was in charge of the draftboard.2) You are wrong. It was not a huge extension. It would be about 6.5 million dollar cap hit, but that would mean little, since they would acquire Williamson, a top 7 pick, and owe him no bonus money. Williamson is a much bigger cap hit than Davis.

 

[Sea Bass]

You make some nice points ML.

I'm not convinced that they can't both start. USC moved Bush around quite a bit depending on the set that they were using, especially during his soph and jr seasons.

With D. Davis' constant health questions and with Bush being a rookie I would keep and use both for at least one season.

If Carr could get some time this would give him another talent to utilyze. Of course extra weapons and no line hasn't played well in Detroit.

 

[diesel7982]

The problem I see is this: Tennessee has been awefully quiet about Leinart. I highly doubt that Norm Chow would take Young or Cutler over Leinart. I also believe that the Saints would definitely select Leinart at No.2. This would leave Tennessee with a QB they might not necessarily want in Young or Cutler, and Volek and McNair both back for another year (so they could effectively wait at least one more year before drafting a QB, or take one in the later rounds like an Omar Jacobs or someone).

Chow drafts for the Titans? Interesting. Don't tell Floyd Reese that.The Titans have been all over Young for 2 years. They WANT him.

If they like Cutler, whom they are fairly experienced with, they can draft him, but if they don't want him, they certainly arent forced to draft him.

Ferguson is definitely an option for the Titans. Hopkins, who btw hasnt said anything about retiring unless he isnt brought back by the Titans, will likely be released and brought back at a reduced price. They wont trade down to get him though.

 

[JMon348]

how bout the vikings trading up to number one to take bush, who is a better version than westbrook, who childress coached in philly

would houston take

17th pick,williamson,3rd rounder

for

1st pick

 

[Sea Bass]

That would be a nice move for the Vikings.

 

[Adrian Peterson]

how bout the vikings trading up to number one to take bush, who is a better version than westbrook, who childress coached in philly

would houston take

17th pick,williamson,3rd rounder

for

1st pick

Bad deal for Houston. What is anyone seeing in Williamson to make his trade value be anywhere decent?3rd round pick - big deal.

17th pick - while in a deep draft they could still land some help with this team - that pick aches!

If Minny wants to get Bush - they will need to ante up large - starting with a 1st this year and next year to get the conversation rolling.

 

[MLBrandow]

1) I was unaware that Chow was in charge of the draftboard.

2) You are wrong. It was not a huge extension. It would be about 6.5 million dollar cap hit, but that would mean little, since they would acquire Williamson, a top 7 pick, and owe him no bonus money. Williamson is a much bigger cap hit than Davis.

That's a pretty good point right there. The fact that you can get a draft pick for a guy you were targeting last year without paying him big bonus money... that's got to feel good.Still, why spend the #1 pick on a guy who will be a role player at best in his first year, and he won't play special teams (Mathis)?

I just refuse to believe that this organization will pass on Ferguson, or trade down past #3.

I think if anything they could draft Matt Leinart and force a trade with the Saints, and potentially pick up a guy like Darren Howard (just throwing a name out there, I realize they'd have to franchise him like the Jets and John Abraham) and a 2nd round pick.

If I'm the Texans, and I'm going to trade down at all, I'm going to want to get:

1) D'Brickashaw Ferguson

2) an early 2nd round pick

3) an impact defensive starter

That makes for a #1 draft pick to me.

And the best part is they won't have to pay Brick #1 money.

I mean, we can talk about how the Texans need Bush and Leinart and Young all day, but can any of them play left tackle? Who's going to play Left Tackle? Not me! And Certainly not Reggie Bush! (although that would be fun to watch)

 

[Adrian Peterson]

On top of this - if they spent some money - they could land Bentley or Hutch as O linemen to pair with Ferguson as well - possibly Hutch and Ferguson could create exactly what Seattle had - a tough left side of their O line!

 

[MLBrandow]

how bout the vikings trading up to number one to take bush, who is a better version than westbrook, who childress coached in philly

would houston take

17th pick,williamson,3rd rounder

for

1st pick

Bad deal for Houston. What is anyone seeing in Williamson to make his trade value be anywhere decent?3rd round pick - big deal.

17th pick - while in a deep draft they could still land some help with this team - that pick aches!

If Minny wants to get Bush - they will need to ante up large - starting with a 1st this year and next year to get the conversation rolling.

I'm not sure that it's so much what they see in Williamson than what they see in pairing Williamson with Andre Johnson, who to me seem like they would complement each other awesomely.Let's buy this for a second then. They've still got that left tackle spot to fill. In the second round you're really looking at Eric Winston / Daryn Colledge.

So, say they walk away from Day 1 with Troy Williamson, Reggie Bush, Eric Winston, and a Left Guard or ILB in the 3rd.

Would you call that a good day? I suppose I would.

 

[MLBrandow]

On top of this - if they spent some money - they could land Bentley or Hutch as O linemen to pair with Ferguson as well - possibly Hutch and Ferguson could create exactly what Seattle had - a tough left side of their O line!

Seahawks have said they will franchise Hutchinson.Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't McKinney their best lineman? Maybe I am confusing Steve with Seth (center for the Dolphins). I know neither are that great though.

I was just under the impression that the left side was the big problem area for the Texans. Maybe it's that the Left side (or lack thereof) is so terrible, that the horrendous middle and right sides go unheralded.

 

[coolnerd]

On top of this - if they spent some money - they could land Bentley or Hutch as O linemen to pair with Ferguson as well - possibly Hutch and Ferguson could create exactly what Seattle had - a tough left side of their O line!

Seahawks have said they will franchise Hutchinson.Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't McKinney their best lineman? Maybe I am confusing Steve with Seth (center for the Dolphins). I know neither are that great though.

I was just under the impression that the left side was the big problem area for the Texans. Maybe it's that the Left side (or lack thereof) is so terrible, that the horrendous middle and right sides go unheralded.

Actually, Chester Pitts is the best OLman for the Texans and he played LT for the 10 games or so. When they move him out there all of a sudden the record setting pace slowed down to being another bad OL. He is at least servicable if not decent, but looks to be able to play any position except C if they are able to get a high end LT. As for the rest of the OL, the interior of the OL has been its weekest link. Mckinney has gotten progressively worse over his time with the Texans. The rest of the Texans OLmen are all decent run blockers, but below average pass blockers.

 

[MLBrandow]

thanks for clearing this up . It's hard to stomach a texans game, much less review highlight film of the OL.

 

[Sinrman]

I've said all along that the Texans should try and trade down and get the top OL out there. That is their biggest need, and has been since day 1 of their existence. If the Texans draft Bush, I could see it for $$ reasons, as he would bring in a LOT of money to the team, a la Michael Vick and his popularity here in Atlanta. He'd sell a lot of tickets and jersies. But personally I feel they have a viable RB who was the lone bright spot for a pathetic Texan team in '05. He had admireable stats, and had to grind out a lot of tough, tough yards, since teams didn't respect the pass much. They just kept blitzing Carr, because their OL sucks so badly.

Again, I can't entirely fault the Texans for drafting Bush, if they do. He could very well be an incredible player. But I think right now, at least, they have bigger holes to fill, namely their black hole of an OL...

 

[coolnerd]

I've said all along that the Texans should try and trade down and get the top OL out there.  That is their biggest need, and has been since day 1 of their existence.  If the Texans draft Bush, I could see it for $$ reasons, as he would bring in a LOT of money to the team, a la Michael Vick and his popularity here in Atlanta.  He'd sell a lot of tickets and jersies.  But personally I feel they have a viable RB who was the lone bright spot for a pathetic Texan team in '05.  He had admireable stats, and had to grind out a lot of tough, tough yards, since teams didn't respect the pass much.  They just kept blitzing Carr, because their OL sucks so badly.

Again, I can't entirely fault the Texans for drafting Bush, if they do.  He could very well be an incredible player.  But I think right now, at least, they have bigger holes to fill, namely their black hole of an OL...

As far as attempting to trade down, i believe that it would be a wise move for the Texans to attempt to do so, but as i look at the other teams below them, i don't see anyone who logically should be trading up. The Saints, and Titans pretty much have the same type of RB situation that the texans do and a maybe even a greater need at QB. The Jets have need at RB, but no one knows about Pennington and their lack of overall team depth was exposed this year. the Packers only have 5 overall picks, and they also could use a defensive play maker. Once you get past 5, the Texans probably don't want to drop that far and the price to move up becomes out of control.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I've done this in painful detail before, so I'll be brief as possible. Pitts is solid on the Houston OL. Mckinney is acceptable at Center. Weigert is acceptable at guard (he played RT and he played hurt all year, and he was awful). They absolutely have to address the OL. I'm not close to suggesting it is passable. They need a RT. They need a LG. They need good health, and they need depth. Fine.

Pitts gave up three sacks in 11 starts at LT. He gave up two in his first two starts at LT and 1 in his last nine games. He shut out Freeney twice, Jared Allen once and finished with three almost dominant performances. He is a GREAT run blocker and the primary reason Dom has had such success running behind such a terrible pass blocking line. Three sacks in 11 games is half the sacks Brick gave up against college DEs (counting the Senior Bowl) this season. For now Pitts is the better option and Brick is very expensive. Pitts is a bad candidate to move to the right side (never played there in his life). Brick is a pure LT. Adding Brick to the OL has the same effect as adding Bush to the backfield. They have a good player there. But the top picks in a draft should NEVER be about needs. They should ALWAYS be about best available player.

They need to draft Reggie Bush. Depth at RB is important; they drop like flies. There's going to be fine OLs (RTs and Gs) available to them with their 2nd and two 3rd rounders.

In 01 it went Vick, mediocre lineman, mediocre lineman, mediocre lineman, Tomlinson. Pass on Bush at your own risk. He is a difference maker and he can contribute immediately. He may be a great one. Some think he will. Others don't. I don't care. He is the correct pick.

 

[Arm Chair Express]

I've done this in painful detail before, so I'll be brief as possible. Pitts is solid on the Houston OL. Mckinney is acceptable at Center. Weigert is acceptable at guard (he played RT and he played hurt all year, and he was awful). They absolutely have to address the OL. I'm not close to suggesting it is passable. They need a RT. They need a LG. They need good health, and they need depth. Fine.

Pitts gave up three sacks in 11 starts at LT. He gave up two in his first two starts at LT and 1 in his last nine games. He shut out Freeney twice, Jared Allen once and finished with three almost dominant performances. He is a GREAT run blocker and the primary reason Dom has had such success running behind such a terrible pass blocking line. Three sacks in 11 games is half the sacks Brick gave up against college DEs (counting the Senior Bowl) this season. For now Pitts is the better option and Brick is very expensive. Pitts is a bad candidate to move to the right side (never played there in his life). Brick is a pure LT. Adding Brick to the OL has the same effect as adding Bush to the backfield. They have a good player there. But the top picks in a draft should NEVER be about needs. They should ALWAYS be about best available player.

They need to draft Reggie Bush. Depth at RB is important; they drop like flies. There's going to be fine OLs (RTs and Gs) available to them with their 2nd and two 3rd rounders.

In 01 it went Vick, mediocre lineman, mediocre lineman, mediocre lineman, Tomlinson. Pass on Bush at your own risk. He is a difference maker and he can contribute immediately. He may be a great one. Some think he will. Others don't. I don't care. He is the correct pick.

Not to mention, Kubiak will bring in the Denver chop block scheme, This O-line will improve just because of that. Look what happened in Atlanta when the scheme was introduced there, they had one of the best rushing teams in the NFL. Kubiak seems to see something in Carr, so I can't see them taking anyone but Bush. They could trade down and bring on an impact player at another position and still get a prospect out of the draft, but if they draft #1 I think Bush is their pick. DD can't stay healthy all year and is a nice back, but doesn't have the skill set of Bush. Look what Portis did in Denver, just imagine Bush running in that scheme. He could be huge and a could hit a home run on any given play, which I don't see with DD.

 

[David Yudkin]

A lot of people talk about how certain teams should be trading down or trading up, but few seem to actually go into detail about it... so let's get a list going of some potential trade scenarios and does anyone know where that "draft pick value chart" is? I can't seem to find it on the net...

It seems to me, if I were the Texans, that since drafting Bush wouldn't really do me any good since I've got a 2,000 yard all-purpose back in Domanick Davis who is NFL-proven, and a Pro Bowl return man in Jerome Mathis, that I'd be drafting him for the sole purpose of trading him.

It also seems to me that if I were really drafting to trade down, I'd take Matt Leinart, since the Saints want him, as do the Titans and Jets, and probably the Raiders as well if they are at 6.

Drafting Leinart would present the same problem as Bush--a slight upgrade that would render an otherwise very capable player worthless.

The most realistic trade scenario I've seen involved the Jets and the Texans, where the Texans would draft Reggie Bush and trade him to the Jets for John Abraham (whom the Jets would franchise and then trade) and their 2nd round draft choice.

Isee two things that jump out at me in this. One, I don't see Domanick Davis as a 2,000 yard RB. The closest he got was 1,700 and changge once in 3 seasons. I don't hink Davis is horrible, but he's not a truly elite RB (although certainly he's more than capable).As for trading the #1 overall pick for Abraham and a 2nd round pick, the Chargers traded the #1 pick for the #4 pick and a 3rd rounder from that draft in addition to a 1st rounder and a 5th rounder the following year. All that for the Giants to move up 3 spots. (I know the Chargers drafted and traded Manning, but it works out the same). IMO, if the Texans can get a deal like that, I'm not sure they would even think of making something like the Abraham deal.

 

[coolnerd]

I've done this in painful detail before, so I'll be brief as possible. Pitts is solid on the Houston OL. Mckinney is acceptable at Center. Weigert is acceptable at guard (he played RT and he played hurt all year, and he was awful). They absolutely have to address the OL. I'm not close to suggesting it is passable. They need a RT. They need a LG. They need good health, and they need depth. Fine.

Pitts gave up three sacks in 11 starts at LT. He gave up two in his first two starts at LT and 1 in his last nine games. He shut out Freeney twice, Jared Allen once and finished with three almost dominant performances. He is a GREAT run blocker and the primary reason Dom has had such success running behind such a terrible pass blocking line. Three sacks in 11 games is half the sacks Brick gave up against college DEs (counting the Senior Bowl) this season. For now Pitts is the better option and Brick is very expensive. Pitts is a bad candidate to move to the right side (never played there in his life). Brick is a pure LT. Adding Brick to the OL has the same effect as adding Bush to the backfield. They have a good player there. But the top picks in a draft should NEVER be about needs. They should ALWAYS be about best available player.

You do make a valid point about Pitts. He was moved to LG in year three. He acceptable as LG but his best position is LT. One genreal note: bob McNair(owner) has said publically that the Texans will move down if they offer a "Godfather trade" ...i.e probably some version of overpay.

 

[Bloom]

I've done this in painful detail before, so I'll be brief as possible. Pitts is solid on the Houston OL. Mckinney is acceptable at Center. Weigert is acceptable at guard (he played RT and he played hurt all year, and he was awful). They absolutely have to address the OL. I'm not close to suggesting it is passable. They need a RT. They need a LG. They need good health, and they need depth. Fine.

Pitts gave up three sacks in 11 starts at LT. He gave up two in his first two starts at LT and 1 in his last nine games. He shut out Freeney twice, Jared Allen once and finished with three almost dominant performances. He is a GREAT run blocker and the primary reason Dom has had such success running behind such a terrible pass blocking line. Three sacks in 11 games is half the sacks Brick gave up against college DEs (counting the Senior Bowl) this season. For now Pitts is the better option and Brick is very expensive. Pitts is a bad candidate to move to the right side (never played there in his life). Brick is a pure LT. Adding Brick to the OL has the same effect as adding Bush to the backfield. They have a good player there. But the top picks in a draft should NEVER be about needs. They should ALWAYS be about best available player.

They need to draft Reggie Bush. Depth at RB is important; they drop like flies. There's going to be fine OLs (RTs and Gs) available to them with their 2nd and two 3rd rounders.

In 01 it went Vick, mediocre lineman, mediocre lineman, mediocre lineman, Tomlinson. Pass on Bush at your own risk. He is a difference maker and he can contribute immediately. He may be a great one. Some think he will. Others don't. I don't care. He is the correct pick.

You know we're on the same page CC. Bush is absolutely the right pick.

 

[-OZ-]

I've done this in painful detail before, so I'll be brief as possible. Pitts is solid on the Houston OL. Mckinney is acceptable at Center. Weigert is acceptable at guard (he played RT and he played hurt all year, and he was awful). They absolutely have to address the OL. I'm not close to suggesting it is passable. They need a RT. They need a LG. They need good health, and they need depth. Fine.

Pitts gave up three sacks in 11 starts at LT. He gave up two in his first two starts at LT and 1 in his last nine games. He shut out Freeney twice, Jared Allen once and finished with three almost dominant performances. He is a GREAT run blocker and the primary reason Dom has had such success running behind such a terrible pass blocking line. Three sacks in 11 games is half the sacks Brick gave up against college DEs (counting the Senior Bowl) this season. For now Pitts is the better option and Brick is very expensive. Pitts is a bad candidate to move to the right side (never played there in his life). Brick is a pure LT. Adding Brick to the OL has the same effect as adding Bush to the backfield. They have a good player there. But the top picks in a draft should NEVER be about needs. They should ALWAYS be about best available player.

They need to draft Reggie Bush. Depth at RB is important; they drop like flies. There's going to be fine OLs (RTs and Gs) available to them with their 2nd and two 3rd rounders.

In 01 it went Vick, mediocre lineman, mediocre lineman, mediocre lineman, Tomlinson. Pass on Bush at your own risk. He is a difference maker and he can contribute immediately. He may be a great one. Some think he will. Others don't. I don't care. He is the correct pick.

You know we're on the same page CC. Bush is absolutely the right pick.

As a general rule, I wouldn't draft a RB in the NFL draft until the 2nd or so, other positions are more important.But, with Reggie Bush, throw out "general rules" as they don't apply.

 

[stbugs]

A lot of people talk about how certain teams should be trading down or trading up, but few seem to actually go into detail about it... so let's get a list going of some potential trade scenarios and does anyone know where that "draft pick value chart" is? I can't seem to find it on the net...

It seems to me, if I were the Texans, that since drafting Bush wouldn't really do me any good since I've got a 2,000 yard all-purpose back in Domanick Davis who is NFL-proven, and a Pro Bowl return man in Jerome Mathis, that I'd be drafting him for the sole purpose of trading him.

It also seems to me that if I were really drafting to trade down, I'd take Matt Leinart, since the Saints want him, as do the Titans and Jets, and probably the Raiders as well if they are at 6.

Drafting Leinart would present the same problem as Bush--a slight upgrade that would render an otherwise very capable player worthless.

The most realistic trade scenario I've seen involved the Jets and the Texans, where the Texans would draft Reggie Bush and trade him to the Jets for John Abraham (whom the Jets would franchise and then trade) and their 2nd round draft choice.

Isee two things that jump out at me in this. One, I don't see Domanick Davis as a 2,000 yard RB. The closest he got was 1,700 and changge once in 3 seasons. I don't hink Davis is horrible, but he's not a truly elite RB (although certainly he's more than capable).As for trading the #1 overall pick for Abraham and a 2nd round pick, the Chargers traded the #1 pick for the #4 pick and a 3rd rounder from that draft in addition to a 1st rounder and a 5th rounder the following year. All that for the Giants to move up 3 spots. (I know the Chargers drafted and traded Manning, but it works out the same). IMO, if the Texans can get a deal like that, I'm not sure they would even think of making something like the Abraham deal.

Just an FYI, but I think he easily could be a 2000 yard guy on two conditions, he plays 16 games and the Texans offense gets a tad better overall. Remember, this is hypothetical since he won't even be the #1 RB next year.In 2004, he had 1776 total yards in 15 games. Prorated, that is 118.4 ypg and 6.6 ypg less than 2000 (125 ypg). In 2005, he had 1313 yards in 11 games (amazing considering how bad their passing game was) which is 119.4 ypg and only 5.6 ypg less than 2000. I can't prorate 2003, because he played in 14 games, but had only 10 starts. He still had 1382 yards though, so in all 3 years, he has pretty much produced at a rate that is just slightly under 2000 yards per season.

Anyway, I am already resigned to the fact that I will lose a nice keeper (had him for a 10th in 2004 and 9th in 2005) but since he very much helped me win my league in 2004, I can't be too bitter. ####### Kris Brown!

 

[Wilbur Wood]

NY JETS trade:

John Abraham

Pick 1.04 (presumably Ferguson)

Pick 2.04 (if they want another RB, someone like Calhoun)

Houston gives:

1.01

 

[David Yudkin]

A lot of people talk about how certain teams should be trading down or trading up, but few seem to actually go into detail about it... so let's get a list going of some potential trade scenarios and does anyone know where that "draft pick value chart" is? I can't seem to find it on the net...

It seems to me, if I were the Texans, that since drafting Bush wouldn't really do me any good since I've got a 2,000 yard all-purpose back in Domanick Davis who is NFL-proven, and a Pro Bowl return man in Jerome Mathis, that I'd be drafting him for the sole purpose of trading him.

It also seems to me that if I were really drafting to trade down, I'd take Matt Leinart, since the Saints want him, as do the Titans and Jets, and probably the Raiders as well if they are at 6.

Drafting Leinart would present the same problem as Bush--a slight upgrade that would render an otherwise very capable player worthless.

The most realistic trade scenario I've seen involved the Jets and the Texans, where the Texans would draft Reggie Bush and trade him to the Jets for John Abraham (whom the Jets would franchise and then trade) and their 2nd round draft choice.

Isee two things that jump out at me in this. One, I don't see Domanick Davis as a 2,000 yard RB. The closest he got was 1,700 and changge once in 3 seasons. I don't hink Davis is horrible, but he's not a truly elite RB (although certainly he's more than capable).As for trading the #1 overall pick for Abraham and a 2nd round pick, the Chargers traded the #1 pick for the #4 pick and a 3rd rounder from that draft in addition to a 1st rounder and a 5th rounder the following year. All that for the Giants to move up 3 spots. (I know the Chargers drafted and traded Manning, but it works out the same). IMO, if the Texans can get a deal like that, I'm not sure they would even think of making something like the Abraham deal.

Just an FYI, but I think he easily could be a 2000 yard guy on two conditions, he plays 16 games and the Texans offense gets a tad better overall. Remember, this is hypothetical since he won't even be the #1 RB next year.In 2004, he had 1776 total yards in 15 games. Prorated, that is 118.4 ypg and 6.6 ypg less than 2000 (125 ypg). In 2005, he had 1313 yards in 11 games (amazing considering how bad their passing game was) which is 119.4 ypg and only 5.6 ypg less than 2000. I can't prorate 2003, because he played in 14 games, but had only 10 starts. He still had 1382 yards though, so in all 3 years, he has pretty much produced at a rate that is just slightly under 2000 yards per season.

Anyway, I am already resigned to the fact that I will lose a nice keeper (had him for a 10th in 2004 and 9th in 2005) but since he very much helped me win my league in 2004, I can't be too bitter. ####### Kris Brown!

I like Davis as much as the next fantasy owner (I've had him in various leagues every year). However, it's one thing to be "on pace" for or "prorated to" a 2,000 yard season and another one to actually have one.There have only been 49 times where someone had 2,000 yards from scrimmage. It's happened 16 times in the past 6 years, so an average of slightly more than 2.5 per season. I suspect that there are a loe of RBs that could make similar arguments as to how they would do in a 16-game season, and that's part of the Texans' issue with Davis--that he seemingly is not reliable enough to count on for 16 healthy games in a season.

I do think, however, that Houston has bigger fish to fry than selecting another RB with the #1 overall pick, so we are on the same page there. Davis is probably top third in terms of starting RBs (although that's certainly open for debate), so they really should be looking to upgrade someplace else.

 

[Texasmouth]

how bout the vikings trading up to number one to take bush, who is a better version than westbrook, who childress coached in philly

would houston take

17th pick,williamson,3rd rounder

for

1st pick

Bad deal for Houston. What is anyone seeing in Williamson to make his trade value be anywhere decent?3rd round pick - big deal.

17th pick - while in a deep draft they could still land some help with this team - that pick aches!

If Minny wants to get Bush - they will need to ante up large - starting with a 1st this year and next year to get the conversation rolling.

The only thing I could see that would make sense is not paying another guy #1 overall money. That would save money against the cap so they could build through free agency. I don't think the Texans can mess this up..... if they draft Bush, they have Bush, if they trade out, they can use free agency and the cap to build. Win-win situation, unlike San Fran who took the best available QB in a down year. Wasted pick in my opinion, they should have taken a defensive player or made an easy deal and picked Lienart this year.

 

[stbugs]

A lot of people talk about how certain teams should be trading down or trading up, but few seem to actually go into detail about it... so let's get a list going of some potential trade scenarios and does anyone know where that "draft pick value chart" is? I can't seem to find it on the net...

It seems to me, if I were the Texans, that since drafting Bush wouldn't really do me any good since I've got a 2,000 yard all-purpose back in Domanick Davis who is NFL-proven, and a Pro Bowl return man in Jerome Mathis, that I'd be drafting him for the sole purpose of trading him.

It also seems to me that if I were really drafting to trade down, I'd take Matt Leinart, since the Saints want him, as do the Titans and Jets, and probably the Raiders as well if they are at 6.

Drafting Leinart would present the same problem as Bush--a slight upgrade that would render an otherwise very capable player worthless.

The most realistic trade scenario I've seen involved the Jets and the Texans, where the Texans would draft Reggie Bush and trade him to the Jets for John Abraham (whom the Jets would franchise and then trade) and their 2nd round draft choice.

Isee two things that jump out at me in this. One, I don't see Domanick Davis as a 2,000 yard RB. The closest he got was 1,700 and changge once in 3 seasons. I don't hink Davis is horrible, but he's not a truly elite RB (although certainly he's more than capable).As for trading the #1 overall pick for Abraham and a 2nd round pick, the Chargers traded the #1 pick for the #4 pick and a 3rd rounder from that draft in addition to a 1st rounder and a 5th rounder the following year. All that for the Giants to move up 3 spots. (I know the Chargers drafted and traded Manning, but it works out the same). IMO, if the Texans can get a deal like that, I'm not sure they would even think of making something like the Abraham deal.

Just an FYI, but I think he easily could be a 2000 yard guy on two conditions, he plays 16 games and the Texans offense gets a tad better overall. Remember, this is hypothetical since he won't even be the #1 RB next year.In 2004, he had 1776 total yards in 15 games. Prorated, that is 118.4 ypg and 6.6 ypg less than 2000 (125 ypg). In 2005, he had 1313 yards in 11 games (amazing considering how bad their passing game was) which is 119.4 ypg and only 5.6 ypg less than 2000. I can't prorate 2003, because he played in 14 games, but had only 10 starts. He still had 1382 yards though, so in all 3 years, he has pretty much produced at a rate that is just slightly under 2000 yards per season.

Anyway, I am already resigned to the fact that I will lose a nice keeper (had him for a 10th in 2004 and 9th in 2005) but since he very much helped me win my league in 2004, I can't be too bitter. ####### Kris Brown!

I like Davis as much as the next fantasy owner (I've had him in various leagues every year). However, it's one thing to be "on pace" for or "prorated to" a 2,000 yard season and another one to actually have one.There have only been 49 times where someone had 2,000 yards from scrimmage. It's happened 16 times in the past 6 years, so an average of slightly more than 2.5 per season. I suspect that there are a loe of RBs that could make similar arguments as to how they would do in a 16-game season, and that's part of the Texans' issue with Davis--that he seemingly is not reliable enough to count on for 16 healthy games in a season.

I do think, however, that Houston has bigger fish to fry than selecting another RB with the #1 overall pick, so we are on the same page there. Davis is probably top third in terms of starting RBs (although that's certainly open for debate), so they really should be looking to upgrade someplace else.

I agree with the 2000 yard thing being a rare thing, but just pointing out that per game he has pretty much been just under that pace in all 3 years, including his rookie year, which is impressive based on how 2000 yards is not a common feat.For as replaceable as he is mentioned to be, he seems to be in that Tiki Barber mold of gaining yardage, although it took Tiki more years to get to 1700+ yards. Hopefully, Davis gets a continued chance to get better with age.

It is hard to gauge the injury thing with Davis, because he only missed 1 game in 2004 and only 1 game in 2003 when he became the starter. This year it seemed like the Texans took it very cautiously with him and shut him down pretty quickly, probably once they realized they were in the Bush sweepstakes!

 

[Pnishthm]

how bout the vikings trading up to number one to take bush, who is a better version than westbrook, who childress coached in philly

would houston take

17th pick,williamson,3rd rounder

for

1st pick

Bad deal for Houston. What is anyone seeing in Williamson to make his trade value be anywhere decent?3rd round pick - big deal.

17th pick - while in a deep draft they could still land some help with this team - that pick aches!

If Minny wants to get Bush - they will need to ante up large - starting with a 1st this year and next year to get the conversation rolling.

I'm not sure that it's so much what they see in Williamson than what they see in pairing Williamson with Andre Johnson, who to me seem like they would complement each other awesomely.Let's buy this for a second then. They've still got that left tackle spot to fill. In the second round you're really looking at Eric Winston / Daryn Colledge.

So, say they walk away from Day 1 with Troy Williamson, Reggie Bush, Eric Winston, and a Left Guard or ILB in the 3rd.

Would you call that a good day? I suppose I would.

If the Vikes trade up to take Bush, then the Texans won't be walking away with, Williamson AND Bush etc. I think you may have misread or misunderstood.

 

[Gopher State]

I think it plays out with the Vikings trading Williamson for D.Davis, and Houston takes Bush. Houston ends up with two young players, and Minny can spend it's first round pick on a LB, rather then a RB.

 

[Barry Jive and The Uptown Five]

Wow,

Almost 30 posts and no link to the

Draft Pick Value Chart

It's not set in stone, but most of the times trades come within +/- 200 pts. Occassionally, you see the team so desparate to move down they will give up ~600 pts in value, but that's rare. (Yes, I actually spent the time reviewing 1st RD traes over the last 5-8 yrs as listed on drafthistory.com - )

Almost ALL of the trades I see posted here on FBG are usually WAY under-valued. The Minnesota-HOU proposal is a classic example. Very seldom will a team from #1 overall completely outside the Top10 picks. The value chart usually justifies this.

 

[coolnerd]

Wow,

Almost 30 posts and no link to the

Draft Pick Value Chart

It's not set in stone, but most of the times trades come within +/- 200 pts.  Occassionally, you see the team so desparate to move down they will give up ~600 pts in value, but that's rare.  (Yes, I actually spent the time reviewing 1st RD traes over the last 5-8 yrs as listed on drafthistory.com -  )

Almost ALL of the trades I see posted here on FBG are usually WAY under-valued.  The Minnesota-HOU proposal is a classic example.  Very seldom will a team from #1 overall completely outside the Top10 picks.  The value chart usually justifies this.

Exactly, that why I posted earlier that i don't believe a trade is going to happen. None of the top 5-7 teams SHOULD be trading up and Houston is showing no indication that they are going to take an undervalued deal.