LHUCKS' 2006 WR Rankings (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

Some points to consider when taking a look at these rankings.

a) These are rankings based on where I’d draft players, not projection rankings like what FBG puts out. Most people requesting my rankings want to know the order in which I’d draft players. These rankings are vastly different than my projection rankings as I put an increased emphasis on ppg and playoff schedule.

b) Rankings are based on the WCOFF scoring format, but are not based on the WCOFF playoff format. I put emphasis on weeks 14-16 for playoffs. Basic WCOFF format is PPR, flex RB/WR position, deep roster, H2H.

c) Rankings are for expert/veteran leagues, not guppy leagues

d) Players should be drafted right before their ADP, NOT where I have them ranked. Read this line twice if you don’t get it.

Overall Strategy:

-Try to draft two WRs from the first three tiers by the end of fourth round unless a RB slides into round 4 that shouldn’t have.

-As usual draft upside in middle to late rounds.

- Draft deeper at WR than any other position.

WR RANKINGS

** = Players with nice upside/ADP ratios to target

1. Chad Johnson

2. Fitzgerald

3. Steve Smith

================

4. Randy Moss

5. Holt

6. T.O.

7. Harrison

8. Boldin

=================

9. S. Moss**

10. Chambers

11. Jackson**

12. Driver

13. Wayne

14. Roy Williams

15. Plaxico

16. Galloway**

17. Mason**

====================

18. Ward

19. Housh

20. Walker**

21. Kennison**

22. Matt Jones**x100

23. Muhammad**

24. Lee Evans

25. Joe Horn

26. Rod Smith

27. Andre Johnson

28. Glenn

29. Michael Clayton**

====================

30. Stallworth**

31. Bryant

32. Coles

33. Bennett**

34. Reggie Brown

35. Williamson**

36. Wilford**

37. Edwards**

38. McCardell

=================

39. Bruce

40. Keyshawn

41. Burleson

42. Lloyd

43. Mark Clayton

44. Engram

45. Jurevicius

46. Moulds

47. Wilson**

48. White

49. Bradford**

50. Branch

51. Taylor

==================

52. Booker

53. Henry**

54. S. Parker

55. T. Brown**

56. Gabriel**

57. Givens

58. Curtis

59. Reggie Williams**

===================

60. Toomer

61. Jennings

62. Porter

64. Stokley

64. B. Johnson

65. M. Robinson

66. Caldwell

67. Battle

68. Ferguson

69. Jenkins

70. Crayton

71. B. Jones

72. Cotchery

73. Colston

74. Bradley

75. V. Jackson

76. Northcutt

 

[broncofan13000]

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Thanks Hucks.

 

[chris1969]

Looks good, but do you have any commentary on why you picked certain people?

 

[LHUCKS]

Looks good, but do you have any commentary on why you picked certain people?

Just ask about certain players and I'll give a brief response.

 

[chris1969]

Looks good, but do you have any commentary on why you picked certain people?

Just ask about certain players and I'll give a brief response.

I'm interested more in your value picks, especially matt jones

 

[Bri]

- Draft deeper at WR than any other position.

I disagree on this at first, but whaddya got up your sleeve? Care to elaborate?

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

Thanks as always LHUCKS. I look forward to your threads more than anybody's.

Care to give some context about your "underrated X 100" comment for Matt Jones? I noticed that you didn't call him out in your midsummer WR thread.

 

[SouthJersey]

you don't factor in playoff schedule for WRs?

 

[Keys Myaths]

Smith still at #3 and Drew Carter not on the list?

 

[LHUCKS]

Looks good, but do you have any commentary on why you picked certain people?

Just ask about certain players and I'll give a brief response.

I'm interested more in your value picks, especially matt jones

-Matt Jones looked uncoverable during the preseason on several occasion and is going to be the most targeted WR in Jax. -He has the potential for top 5 numbers because of his TD potential and big play ability.

-I think he's an excellent gamble in the middle rounds.

-I would take him 22nd off the board but his ADP according to FBG is only WR29 at 7.03 according to FBG data so you can get him a little earlier in many leagues.

 

[Bri]

too many bunched up Pats IMO

Toomer too low

Clayton too high if Heap and Mason are first and second options

Always very interesting to view, thanks

 

[ydub]

I think you're underestimating Lee Evans a bit. Just a gut feeling, but I think he cracks the top 76.

 

[broncofan13000]

I have Fitz and Boldin clumped a bit closer together...Any reasons why you're higher on Fitz? Just think he'll get more TD's?

And I got S.Moss in one of my $$$ leagues, and love how he broke your top 10, but am a bit surprised...(i usually see him at around 12, behind Chambers and Wayne, not ahead) ...

and thanks for the great posts...

 

[bostonfred]

Hard to pick Randy Moss over Boldin, Harrison, Owens and Holt. I'm leaning towards taking Wayne over Moss.

I think you're underrating Plaxico, Wayne and Roy Williams. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of these three end up as the #1 WR this year.

I'm avoiding Darrell Jackson, but if he somehow slid to the point I wanted him, I'd want to make sure I backed him up with Engram.

I like your ranking of Glenn. But why are you so low on Ward?

 

[LHUCKS]

too many bunched up Pats IMO

NE is a mess, but I like Troy Brown and Gabriel for now

Toomer too low

Don't like his upside

Clayton too high if Heap and Mason are first and second options

Clayton showed a lot as a rookie. I like his upside.

 

[chris1969]

Thanks, Lhucks.

 

[LHUCKS]

I have Fitz and Boldin clumped a bit closer together...Any reasons why you're higher on Fitz? Just think he'll get more TD's?

TDs and Boldin plays to get injured...he trys to hit DBs.

And I got S.Moss in one of my $$$ leagues, and love how he broke your top 10, but am a bit surprised...(i usually see him at around 12, behind Chambers and Wayne, not ahead) ...

yeah, I'm not convinced Santana sees a huge decrease in stats. His targets should be about the same IMHO and he always has an impressive YPC.

 

[LHUCKS]

Hard to pick Randy Moss over Boldin, Harrison, Owens and Holt. I'm leaning towards taking Wayne over Moss.

I have his ceiling pretty high this year and I'm expecting a bounce back season...definitely more of a risk than all the players you've mentioned.

I think you're underrating Plaxico, Wayne and Roy Williams. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of these three end up as the #1 WR this year.

Plax's inconsistency from last year bothers me. Indy's D and Harrison bother me regardign Wayne.The Detroit Lions in general bother me about Roy...Roy has a high ceiling though, very tough to rank.

I'm avoiding Darrell Jackson, but if he somehow slid to the point I wanted him, I'd want to make sure I backed him up with Engram.

I agree. Engram is a must handcuff with Jackson. Personally I wouldn't be surprised if Jackson finishes with a top 5 ppg.

But why are you so low on Ward?

His yardage totals are rarely impressive and I think he sees a drop in TDs this year.

 

[LHUCKS]

I think you're underestimating Lee Evans a bit. Just a gut feeling, but I think he cracks the top 76.

Added.

 

[LHUCKS]

Smith still at #3 and Drew Carter not on the list?

I think Smith puts up sick PPG once again this year. Not a fan of Carter.

 

[LHUCKS]

you don't factor in playoff schedule for WRs?

No. There are so many factors that come into play for WR scoring that I pretty much ignore SOS data for WRs.

 

[LHUCKS]

- Draft deeper at WR than any other position.

I disagree on this at first, but whaddya got up your sleeve? Care to elaborate?

In general it's easier to draft WR sleepers than RB sleepers so I usually draft deeper at WR. Most WCOFF rosters draft deepest at WR as there is still value in the late rounds.

 

[brobe4]

Thanks

 

[bostonfred]

Where Eli goes, Plax goes. I think that's up. Otherwise, nice job once again.

 

[LHUCKS]

Where Eli goes, Plax goes. I think that's up. Otherwise, nice job once again.

Yeah..I'm down on Eli also so I guess we'll see. The G-men have a ##### of a schedule.

 

[broncofan13000]

You have Stallworth ahead of R.Brown...you think Stallworth will be quick to fit into the Philidelphia's Offense? Care to ellaborate?

edit: not disagreeing, just want to know your reasoning...

 

[Chase Stuart]

Rod Smith ranked 16th last year. The Broncos have lost over 1500 receiving yards this off-season. Rod Smith ranks 26th on your list. And it's not like we have to worry about Rod Smith being triple covered: he's got a great running game and a great WR1 across from him. But unless you see Javon Walker having 1900 yards this year, I don't see why Smith is outside of anyone's top 20.

 

[LHUCKS]

You have Stallworth ahead of R.Brown...you think Stallworth will be quick to fit into the Philidelphia's Offense? Care to ellaborate?edit: not disagreeing, just want to know your reasoning...

I think Stallworth is the better WR right now and believe that the Eagles coaching staff and McNabb will quickly agree. Stallworth will have a better YPC almost for certain.

 

[Lauryn]

58. Curtis

59. Reggie Williams**

===================

60. Toomer

61. Jennings

62. Porter

63. Curtis

so nice you named him twice?

 

[LHUCKS]

Rod Smith ranked 16th last year. The Broncos have lost over 1500 receiving yards this off-season. Rod Smith ranks 26th on your list. And it's not like we have to worry about Rod Smith being triple covered: he's got a great running game and a great WR1 across from him. But unless you see Javon Walker having 1900 yards this year, I don't see why Smith is outside of anyone's top 20.

Walker has looked very strong and I think he sees more targets than Rod down the stretch. Rod is getting old.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Rod Smith ranked 16th last year. The Broncos have lost over 1500 receiving yards this off-season. Rod Smith ranks 26th on your list. And it's not like we have to worry about Rod Smith being triple covered: he's got a great running game and a great WR1 across from him. But unless you see Javon Walker having 1900 yards this year, I don't see why Smith is outside of anyone's top 20.

Walker has looked very strong and I think he sees more targets than Rod down the stretch. Rod is getting old.

That doesn't answer my question at all, but thanks.

 

[LHUCKS]

Rod Smith ranked 16th last year. The Broncos have lost over 1500 receiving yards this off-season. Rod Smith ranks 26th on your list. And it's not like we have to worry about Rod Smith being triple covered: he's got a great running game and a great WR1 across from him. But unless you see Javon Walker having 1900 yards this year, I don't see why Smith is outside of anyone's top 20.

Walker has looked very strong and I think he sees more targets than Rod down the stretch. Rod is getting old.

That doesn't answer my question at all, but thanks.

Sorry, I skimmed the question and missed your point.I think Rod's targets decrease as Javon takes away targets since he is now the best WR on the team. Additionally, I believe the older that Rod gets the more he becomes a risk for injury so that effects my ranking of Smith as well.At what point do you become concerned about Rod's age?

 

[Chase Stuart]

Rod Smith ranked 16th last year. The Broncos have lost over 1500 receiving yards this off-season. Rod Smith ranks 26th on your list. And it's not like we have to worry about Rod Smith being triple covered: he's got a great running game and a great WR1 across from him. But unless you see Javon Walker having 1900 yards this year, I don't see why Smith is outside of anyone's top 20.

Walker has looked very strong and I think he sees more targets than Rod down the stretch. Rod is getting old.

That doesn't answer my question at all, but thanks.

Sorry, I skimmed the question and missed your point.I think Rod's targets decrease as Javon takes away targets since he is now the best WR on the team. Additionally, I believe the older that Rod gets the more he becomes a risk for injury so that effects my ranking of Smith as well.At what point do you become concerned about Rod's age?

The Broncos lost over 1500 yards in the passing game this off-season. Even if Javon Walker had 1500 yards, I think Smith could repeat those numbers. Walker having a huge year has almost no relevance to Smith's success, since he'll be competing with Mike Bell, Tony Scheffler and Brandon Marshall -- three rookies -- for all the receiving yards that Walker doesn't get. If your RB1, TE1 and WR3 are rookies, I think WR1 and WR2 are in very, very good shape considering the great offense the Broncos always seem to have.And I become concerned about Rod's age next year. Rod's one year younger than Jimmy Smith. Seriously, do projections for the Broncos and try to not give Rod Smith 75/950/5. That's his absolute floor if he stays healthy; 85/1105/6 (last year's numbers) seems very attainable.

 

[LHUCKS]

The Broncos lost over 1500 yards in the passing game this off-season. Even if Javon Walker had 1500 yards, I think Smith could repeat those numbers. Walker having a huge year has almost no relevance to Smith's success, since he'll be competing with Mike Bell, Tony Scheffler and Brandon Marshall -- three rookies -- for all the receiving yards that Walker doesn't get.

I would be surprised to see a huge transfer of yardage to the WR#2. A well balanced offense targeting all positions is what coaches usually strive for. Despite the youth I don't see a dropoff in talent or ability at WR or TE. If I see any dropoff it's at WR#2 where Smith will undoubtedly have a lower YPC than Lelie did.I do believe there is a risk that the Bell tandem will not stay healthy forcing an air attack for part of the season which may inflate Rod's stats.

 

[BassNBrew]

At what point do you become concerned about Rod's age?

When you draft him in a SSL.

 

[BassNBrew]

I got one major issue and it's a general theme. I believe you've over ranked too many WRs who have changed teams. History is not on your side here.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Excellent list LHUCKS. This is your best positional rank, IMO.

Switch SSmith with Holt, SMoss with Chambers, and DJax with Wayne, and you have my WR rankings. In one of my two longtime leagues, I went Fitz in the 2nd, and RMoss in the third, as I agree that Moss bounces back.

The RB values in the 4th and 5th rounds made it a great year to go WR/WR in the 2nd and 3rd this year year, assuming you had a top 8 pick.

Great post WESTSIDE!

 

[LHUCKS]

I got one major issue and it's a general theme. I believe you've over ranked too many WRs who have changed teams. History is not on your side here.

I think that's coincidental to an extent as all of them are middle to late round guys that I evaluate independently of one another.(outside of Walker)

 

[tommyGunZ]

I got one major issue and it's a general theme. I believe you've over ranked too many WRs who have changed teams. History is not on your side here.

I too am very leary of WRs switching teams and expecting the "bust out" that most predict based on the new opportunity. I think there are far more Peerless Prices than Santana Mosses.

 

[LHUCKS]

Excellent list LHUCKS. This is your best positional rank, IMO.

WR is always the toughest...but thanks.

 

[BassNBrew]

Excellent list LHUCKS. This is your best positional rank, IMO.Switch SSmith with Holt, SMoss with Chambers, and DJax with Wayne, and you have my WR rankings. In one of my two longtime leagues, I went Fitz in the 2nd, and RMoss in the third, as I agree that Moss bounces back.The RB values in the 4th and 5th rounds made it a great year to go WR/WR in the 2nd and 3rd this year year, assuming you had a top 8 pick. Great post WESTSIDE!

Once again history is not on your side Lhucks.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Excellent list LHUCKS. This is your best positional rank, IMO.

WR is always the toughest...but thanks.

Also the most fun, IMO. Harrison and Moss passing the torch means that about 5-7 guys have a legitmate shot at finishing #1 overall. And it wouldn't surprise if Harrison and Moss didn't remind us why they're first ballot HOFers, and that their fantasy demise has been oversold.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Excellent list LHUCKS. This is your best positional rank, IMO.Switch SSmith with Holt, SMoss with Chambers, and DJax with Wayne, and you have my WR rankings. In one of my two longtime leagues, I went Fitz in the 2nd, and RMoss in the third, as I agree that Moss bounces back.The RB values in the 4th and 5th rounds made it a great year to go WR/WR in the 2nd and 3rd this year year, assuming you had a top 8 pick. Great post WESTSIDE!

Once again history is not on your side Lhucks.

 

[BoltBacker]

I think the starting PHI WRs are way too high. FBG's has them too high but LHUCKS have them even higher.

Wouldn't be surprised if PHI "reverts" back into the offense that got them into the conference championship game long before TO was introduced to the scene. I'm betting the TE's/RB's are a larger % of the passing game than FBG's project and that will be even more of a sure thing if Garcia gets into a few games(McNabb has missed 14 in the last 4 years).

Even among WR's I don't think Stallworth/Brown get as big a piece of the pie as people are projecting. There was positive buzz about Baskett this summer and Lewis may not be a sexy pick to get a ton of production but he's probably been acclimated into the offense the longest out of the entire group of WR's and has steadily improved each season.

 

[tommyGunZ]

There was positive buzz about Baskett this summer and Lewis may not be a sexy pick to get a ton of production but he's probably been acclimated into the offense the longest out of the entire group of WR's and has steadily improved each season.

the funniest post of the preseason goes to the guy in the "Philly trades for Donte Stallworth" thread asking: "Does this hurt Hank Baskett's value?"

 

[LHUCKS]

I think the starting PHI WRs are way too high. FBG's has them too high but LHUCKS have them even higher.

Remember that these are not projection rankings...these are rankings in which I'd draft players, much of which is based on upside. I believe Stallworth is more talented than any WR that McNabb has played with not named TO. Chad Lewis, Thrash and Pinkston were the seasonal WR leaders before TO came to town.

 

[Lemmiwinks]

Overall Strategy:

-Try to draft two WRs from the first two tiers by the end of fourth round unless a RB slides into round 4 that shouldn’t have.

-As usual draft upside in middle to late rounds.

- Draft deeper at WR than any other position.

I have to disagree here. Draft RB deeper than any other position. You can always trade RB's for WR's. A RB is a lottery ticket.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Smith still at #3 and Drew Carter not on the list?

I think Smith puts up sick PPG once again this year. Not a fan of Carter.

Horrible "sick" usage.

 

[SackDiesel808]

The Broncos lost over 1500 yards in the passing game this off-season. Even if Javon Walker had 1500 yards, I think Smith could repeat those numbers. Walker having a huge year has almost no relevance to Smith's success, since he'll be competing with Mike Bell, Tony Scheffler and Brandon Marshall -- three rookies -- for all the receiving yards that Walker doesn't get.

I would be surprised to see a huge transfer of yardage to the WR#2. A well balanced offense targeting all positions is what coaches usually strive for. Despite the youth I don't see a dropoff in talent or ability at WR or TE. If I see any dropoff it's at WR#2 where Smith will undoubtedly have a lower YPC than Lelie did.I do believe there is a risk that the Bell tandem will not stay healthy forcing an air attack for part of the season which may inflate Rod's stats.

Ed McCaffrey was able to throw up some pretty good seasons as a WR2 in Denver from 1998-2000..... even 2002 was ok sans TDs...... the two most productive years 1998-99 occured when Shannon Sharpe was injured/retired (i.e. without dominant TE). Ed was 34 in 2002. He is also white and not athletically gifted to begin with, which is a back handed compliment to Rod Smith.Of course Rod could age like a dog and stick around for a few years too many..... i.e. Jerry Rice and Tim Brown. (leaving myself a few outs here) Not sure if Jimmy Smith is a good comparison since he was of the guilty substance abuse variety.