LHUCKS' top 5 Overvalued in ADP top 30 (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

Note: ADPs obtained from the leading fantasy league website.

1. Tom Brady - ADP #5 - His three year average is significantly lower than last year's numbers and there are several addittional reasons why the golden boy may be a bit overrated this year. a) Improved Defense b) Better running game (IMHO) c) BB wants to be more balanced (IMHO). 5 is way too high IMHO for a position that is relatively deep. Go QBBC instead or draft Brees or a runningback at #5.

2. Larry Fitzgerald - #15 - Skelton is better for Fitz then Kolb, but there are warning signs all over AZ. Not only are the QBs unproven, the OL is in shambles and the RBs can't stay on the field. Too many risk factors for an early 2nd round pick IMHO...and I love Fitz as a player.

3. Trent Richardson - ADP #24 - Rookie RB on a terrible offense. Further, he has already ran into some injury trouble. I'll pass on Richardson at this ADP with other value plays at RB a full round later or even more.

4. Cam Newton - ADP #12 - Just way too high with a deep QB class. His Rushing TDs have nowhere to go but down and his second half dropoff is of serious concern. No Thanks. Exciting player, but don't want him on my fantasy squad at this price.

5. Greg Jennings - ADP #29 - Less than 75 yards in 5 of last 6 games played last year. Has always been an overrated talent and IMHO is the fourth most talented target at Rodgers' disposal behind Finley, Cobb and Nelson. Add in Benson who will improve the running game. No thanks. Don't draft this guy on numbers from two years ago.

I will give you more, but you'll have to beg.

 

[Soulfly3]

I will give you more, but you'll have to beg.

Does that ever work? Though I agree with most of em, Brady aside.

 

[LHUCKS]

Though I agree with most of em, Brady aside.

Of course you do, I know things.As for Brady, yeah, people wont want to hear that. I'd be fine with the late first round or 2nd round...but #5, not even close.

 

[Phenix]

Note: ADPs obtained from the leading fantasy league website.

1. Tom Brady - ADP #5 - His three year average is significantly lower than last year's numbers and there are several addittional reasons why the golden boy may be a bit overrated this year. a) Improved Defense b) Better running game (IMHO) c) BB wants to be more balanced (IMHO). 5 is way too high IMHO for a position that is relatively deep. Go QBBC instead or draft Brees or a runningback at #5.

How can a guy who throws for dang near 40 TDs and over 5000 yards be over rated, you can take him at 1 and that is value.

2. Larry Fitzgerald - #15 - Skelton is better for Fitz then Kolb, but there are warning signs all over AZ. Not only are the QBs unproven, the OL is in shambles and the RBs can't stay on the field. Too many risk factors for an early 2nd round pick IMHO...and I love Fitz as a player.

We have been over this, he had the same QBs last year and was a stud.

3. Trent Richardson - ADP #24 - Rookie RB on a terrible offense. Further, he has already ran into some injury trouble. I'll pass on Richardson at this ADP with other value plays at RB a full round later or even more.

He will get every touch in the backfield that he is able too, opportunity wins championships, and he is at risk just like everyone else.

4. Cam Newton - ADP #12 - Just way too high with a deep QB class. His Rushing TDs have nowhere to go but down and his second half dropoff is of serious concern. No Thanks. Exciting player, but don't want him on my fantasy squad at this price.

He may be a bit over valued.

5. Greg Jennings - ADP #29 - Less than 75 yards in 5 of last 6 games played last year. Has always been an overrated talent and IMHO is the fourth most talented target at Rodgers' disposal behind Finley, Cobb and Nelson. Add in Benson who will improve the running game. No thanks. Don't draft this guy on numbers from two years ago.

Behind Cobb Nelson and Finley? Really?

I will give you more, but you'll have to beg.

My remarks bolded.Please stop, your in typical forum of not knowing what you are even talking about.

 

[LHUCKS]

Please stop, your in typical forum of not knowing what you are even talking about.

Please don't pee in the pool, guy.

 

[butcher boy]

QBBC always seems like such a wonderful strategy, until you actually have to implement it every week when submitting your lineup. ADP 5 may be a bit high for Brady, but I don't necesarily see it s a horrible pick.

 

[sjdogs]

Enjoyed your reads over the years. Sell me on Forte or someone at the end of round 1. I like Brady and no clue why you think BB wants to switch to more balanced offense

Forte has a vulture and i am not using a first round pick on a time share even if it means no RB

I love Mcfadden but he will be gone

 

[LHUCKS]

QBBC always seems like such a wonderful strategy, until you actually have to implement it every week when submitting your lineup. ADP 5 may be a bit high for Brady, but I don't necesarily see it s a horrible pick.

QB is deep this year, take Stafford next round if you really want a QB early...much better value.

 

[zoonation]

Though I agree with most of em, Brady aside.

Of course you do, I know things.As for Brady, yeah, people wont want to hear that. I'd be fine with the late first round or 2nd round...but #5, not even close.

You would rather take a chance on an RB in the 5 hole that will present more questions than answers going into the season? I agree #5 is a bit high for Brady, but totally understand someone who takes him there, as it almost certainly will not cost them the season. Way more risk with an RB and, IMO, there is little upside reward to be had. Taking Brady or your favorite QB in the five hole is risk averse and cannot be criticized this year given the lack of depth at RB this year.I also don't think there is any basis to say that Jennings is the 4th best talent on GB, but agree that he is overrated at his ADP.

 

[LHUCKS]

Enjoyed your reads over the years.

thanks, I've been here for 14 years, some reads I'm sure were better than others.I feel old.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Note: ADPs obtained from the leading fantasy league website.

1. Tom Brady - ADP #5 - His three year average is significantly lower than last year's numbers and there are several addittional reasons why the golden boy may be a bit overrated this year. a) Improved Defense b) Better running game (IMHO) c) BB wants to be more balanced (IMHO). 5 is way too high IMHO for a position that is relatively deep. Go QBBC instead or draft Brees or a runningback at #5.

2. Larry Fitzgerald - #15 - Skelton is better for Fitz then Kolb, but there are warning signs all over AZ. Not only are the QBs unproven, the OL is in shambles and the RBs can't stay on the field. Too many risk factors for an early 2nd round pick IMHO...and I love Fitz as a player.

3. Trent Richardson - ADP #24 - Rookie RB on a terrible offense. Further, he has already ran into some injury trouble. I'll pass on Richardson at this ADP with other value plays at RB a full round later or even more.

4. Cam Newton - ADP #12 - Just way too high with a deep QB class. His Rushing TDs have nowhere to go but down and his second half dropoff is of serious concern. No Thanks. Exciting player, but don't want him on my fantasy squad at this price.

5. Greg Jennings - ADP #29 - Less than 75 yards in 5 of last 6 games played last year. Has always been an overrated talent and IMHO is the fourth most talented target at Rodgers' disposal behind Finley, Cobb and Nelson. Add in Benson who will improve the running game. No thanks. Don't draft this guy on numbers from two years ago.

I will give you more, but you'll have to beg.

I agree with every one.

 

[zoonation]

Enjoyed your reads over the years.

thanks, I've been here for 14 years, some reads I'm sure were better than others.I feel old.

not too old to trot out the same sophomoric shtick to dilute your sometimes insightful posts

 

[beef]

:unsubscribe:

Oh wait... These are lock picks to pan out now.

 

[HALtheCOW]

I love the post. I do not agree with all the picks, but I love you put out some good reasoning behind your thinking. I wish we saw more of this in the Shark Pool.

And I will be the first one to beg for more! Please!!!!!!

 

[LHUCKS]

You would rather take a chance on an RB in the 5 hole that will present more questions than answers going into the season?

You betcha...give me RUN DMC all day. That's a pick that's playing to win.

I agree #5 is a bit high for Brady, but totally understand someone who takes him there, as it almost certainly will not cost them the season. Way more risk with an RB and, IMO, there is little upside reward to be high.

Brady is safe, but Brees is right there and so are impact RBs like McCoy or DMC who have all the upside you can handle at a more critical position.

Taking Brady or your favorite QB in the five hole is risk averse and cannot be criticized this year given the lack of depth at RB this year.

It's too safe...Brady has to repeate his absurd numbers to justify a selection at #5...I'll take the under.

I also don't think there is any basis to say that Jennings is the 4th best talent on GB, but agree that he is overrated at his ADP.

That's largely a qualitative analysis, although I did provide some stats to back it up. Jennings was the beneficiary of being the safest target for several years. Rodgers has more options now...and last year's stats show it.

 

[Buffaloes]

good list except I disagree w/ Brady.

They lost the Law Firm and have 2 unknown commodities taking over at RB. Not that that is a big deal since Josh McDaniels is back and I'm not sure he knows how to implement a proper running game. I expect Brady to have a huge season and would take him as the #2 QB off the board. I've seen nothing indicating Belichick preferring a more balanced attack. I think the run/pass ratio is a bit skewed due to the Pats relying more heavily on screens and shorter passes that are basically long hand offs. I don't see that changing. The addition of Lloyd will allow them to spread the field and open up more of those horizontal routes. The Pats have added a 1st round pass rusher, but I'm not sure the defense will be much improved. If it is, I still don't expect it to have much of a negative effect on the passing game. BB has not been one to lay off the pedal because he is up big. I see Brady having a huge year. Factor in his high floor and I think his current value is about right.

I like the rest of the list, though.

 

[LHUCKS]

I love the post. I do not agree with all the picks, but I love you put out some good reasoning behind your thinking. I wish we saw more of this in the Shark Pool.And I will be the first one to beg for more! Please!!!!!!

 

[Late225]

Agreed with all of the picks, LHUCKS. as usual. My big problem is picking anywhere after 6. I think most of the players in the top 50 are overrated or hard to justify taking early.

I don't like any of the running backs after the big three.

I think McFadden, Lynch, Chris Johnson, MJD all have major bust potential.

I don't want to take a TE early (deep).

I don't want to take a QB early (deep).

And I don't think there's a huge difference between the top 15 wide receivers, so why take the first one?

I'm out of options, lol.

 

[Ignoramus]

Note: ADPs obtained from the leading fantasy league website.

1. Tom Brady - ADP #5 - His three year average is significantly lower than last year's numbers and there are several addittional reasons why the golden boy may be a bit overrated this year. a) Improved Defense b) Better running game (IMHO) c) BB wants to be more balanced (IMHO). 5 is way too high IMHO for a position that is relatively deep. Go QBBC instead or draft Brees or a runningback at #5.

2. Larry Fitzgerald - #15 - Skelton is better for Fitz then Kolb, but there are warning signs all over AZ. Not only are the QBs unproven, the OL is in shambles and the RBs can't stay on the field. Too many risk factors for an early 2nd round pick IMHO...and I love Fitz as a player.

3. Trent Richardson - ADP #24 - Rookie RB on a terrible offense. Further, he has already ran into some injury trouble. I'll pass on Richardson at this ADP with other value plays at RB a full round later or even more.

4. Cam Newton - ADP #12 - Just way too high with a deep QB class. His Rushing TDs have nowhere to go but down and his second half dropoff is of serious concern. No Thanks. Exciting player, but don't want him on my fantasy squad at this price.

5. Greg Jennings - ADP #29 - Less than 75 yards in 5 of last 6 games played last year. Has always been an overrated talent and IMHO is the fourth most talented target at Rodgers' disposal behind Finley, Cobb and Nelson. Add in Benson who will improve the running game. No thanks. Don't draft this guy on numbers from two years ago.

I will give you more, but you'll have to beg.

Great. I didn't pick any of these guys.

 

[jurb26]

Note: ADPs obtained from the leading fantasy league website.

1. Tom Brady - ADP #5 - His three year average is significantly lower than last year's numbers and there are several addittional reasons why the golden boy may be a bit overrated this year. a) Improved Defense b) Better running game (IMHO) c) BB wants to be more balanced (IMHO). 5 is way too high IMHO for a position that is relatively deep. Go QBBC instead or draft Brees or a runningback at #5.

2. Larry Fitzgerald - #15 - Skelton is better for Fitz then Kolb, but there are warning signs all over AZ. Not only are the QBs unproven, the OL is in shambles and the RBs can't stay on the field. Too many risk factors for an early 2nd round pick IMHO...and I love Fitz as a player.

3. Trent Richardson - ADP #24 - Rookie RB on a terrible offense. Further, he has already ran into some injury trouble. I'll pass on Richardson at this ADP with other value plays at RB a full round later or even more.

4. Cam Newton - ADP #12 - Just way too high with a deep QB class. His Rushing TDs have nowhere to go but down and his second half dropoff is of serious concern. No Thanks. Exciting player, but don't want him on my fantasy squad at this price.

5. Greg Jennings - ADP #29 - Less than 75 yards in 5 of last 6 games played last year. Has always been an overrated talent and IMHO is the fourth most talented target at Rodgers' disposal behind Finley, Cobb and Nelson. Add in Benson who will improve the running game. No thanks. Don't draft this guy on numbers from two years ago.

I will give you more, but you'll have to beg.

I agree with all but Richardson. We've been thru that in another thread. Nice job.

 

[silentcoach]

Tom Brady is SAFE. That can either give him value or overvalued depending if you're a glass half full or half empty kind of person.

Agree on Jennings only because his ceiling is not that high AND he has a low low low floor for a top wr.

 

[LHUCKS]

Agreed with all of the picks, LHUCKS. as usual.

My big problem is picking anywhere after 6. I think most of the players in the top 50 are overrated or hard to justify taking early. I don't like any of the running backs after the big three. I think McFadden, Lynch, Chris Johnson, MJD all have major bust potential. I don't want to take a TE early (deep). I don't want to take a QB early (deep). And I don't think there's a huge difference between the top 15 wide receivers, so why take the first one? I'm out of options, lol.

In general I see value at QB/WR/TE in rounds 2 & 3...the RB value starts coming in around round 4.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Note: ADPs obtained from the leading fantasy league website.

2. Larry Fitzgerald - #15 - Skelton is better for Fitz then Kolb, but there are warning signs all over AZ. Not only are the QBs unproven, the OL is in shambles and the RBs can't stay on the field. Too many risk factors for an early 2nd round pick IMHO...and I love Fitz as a player.

.

Fitz avg just as many points with Kolb as he did with Skelton. He just caught more TD's with Skelton. It really doesn't matter who throws the ball, Fitz is a Stud with spiderman hands. Not on board with Brady but the others are solid

 

[LHUCKS]

Tom Brady is SAFE. That can either give him value or overvalued depending if you're a glass half full or half empty kind of person.

True, in competitive leagues it's too safe IMHO. You really need to nail your RB sleepers for this pick to pay off...in shark leagues that's easier said than done.

Agree on Jennings only because his ceiling is not that high AND he has a low low low floor for a top wr.

exactly

 

[zoonation]

LHUCKS:

I agree that McFadden is a pick playing to win, if the guy stays healthy, which he never has. In my view, this year more than any other you have to seriously consider the potential bust of injury, losing a step recovering from injury and lack of opportunity.

McCoy is not available in the 5 hole of my leagues.

I mean, I love Charles if someone tells me he gets 200-225 touches. Worth the risk armed with that info. The problem is not only that there is no guarantee that he will see the ball that much, but that it is difficult to predict how he will hold up over the course of the season coming off the surgery. The guy was made of glass before the surgery. So while there is a chance he could go off, it is just too risky. Same with all the backs that will be available there. How can you look at McFadden and not have serious concerns about him holding up. He never has. Sure he is beast when healthy but the same concerns that are raised with Charles rear their head with D-Mac too.

So, for the sake of argument let's work off the premise that Brady will regress (there are compelling arguments to be made to the contrary). Say he only throws for 4500 and 35. You still get top 5 QB production with little to no risk and you almost certainly haven't trashed your draft in making that pick.

I understand playing to win. I just think this year the cost of the backs in the 5 hole are saddled with too much risk and not enough upside. Danger lurks all around at RB in that spot.

As for the Jennings thing...the guy got hurt. He was throwing up great games when healthy, but you and I agree on his ADP so to bed with that one.

 

[LHUCKS]

Fitz avg just as many points with Kolb as he did with Skelton. He just caught more TD's with Skelton. It really doesn't matter who throws the ball, Fitz is a Stud with spiderman hands.

He is a stud, but too many warning signs that will hamper his TD production. To justify this high of a pick on Fitz, you need to be in very WR-friendly league IMHO.

 

[LHUCKS]

Not on board with Brady but the others are solid

 

[LHUCKS]

So, for the sake of argument let's work off the premise that Brady will regress (there are compelling arguments to be made to the contrary). Say he only throws for 4500 and 35. You still get top 5 QB production with little to no risk and you almost certainly haven't trashed your draft in making that pick.

It's a safe pick, but you can get similar production from Stafford next round. Maybe even a QBBC if you play your cards right.

I understand playing to win. I just think this year the cost of the backs in the 5 hole are saddled with too much risk and not enough upside. Danger lurks all around at RB in that spot.

Then take a safer RB like Johnson or take Brees if you don't want the risk. Personally I think this is the year that McFadden stays on the field and proves he is the best pure runner in the game.

 

[Warrior]

Note: ADPs obtained from the leading fantasy league website.

1. Tom Brady - ADP #5 - His three year average is significantly lower than last year's numbers and there are several addittional reasons why the golden boy may be a bit overrated this year. a) Improved Defense b) Better running game (IMHO) c) BB wants to be more balanced (IMHO). 5 is way too high IMHO for a position that is relatively deep. Go QBBC instead or draft Brees or a runningback at #5.

A) Not really B) Not really C) Been saying this for years, not happening.

2. Larry Fitzgerald - #15 - Skelton is better for Fitz then Kolb, but there are warning signs all over AZ. Not only are the QBs unproven, the OL is in shambles and the RBs can't stay on the field. Too many risk factors for an early 2nd round pick IMHO...and I love Fitz as a player.

QB, RBs and O-line are no worse than last season. Your criticisms lack any sort of thought.

3. Trent Richardson - ADP #24 - Rookie RB on a terrible offense. Further, he has already ran into some injury trouble. I'll pass on Richardson at this ADP with other value plays at RB a full round later or even more.

Plenty of fantasy points go to RBs on terrible offenses (hint hint MJD). And his injury 'trouble' is a routine scope

4. Cam Newton - ADP #12 - Just way too high with a deep QB class. His Rushing TDs have nowhere to go but down and his second half dropoff is of serious concern. No Thanks. Exciting player, but don't want him on my fantasy squad at this price.

It'll take you a couple more years to come around, likely. By that point, it will be too late.

5. Greg Jennings - ADP #29 - Less than 75 yards in 5 of last 6 games played last year. Has always been an overrated talent and IMHO is the fourth most talented target at Rodgers' disposal behind Finley, Cobb and Nelson. Add in Benson who will improve the running game. No thanks. Don't draft this guy on numbers from two years ago.

Laughable that he's the 4th most talented, and thinking than CEDRIC BENSON will shift them to a running offense.

I will give you more, but you'll have to beg.

Literally the worst list I've seen in 2012. You have absolutely no idea what you're doing here...way out of your league. Sorry, but someone had to break it to you.Thanks for trying though.

 

[LHUCKS]

Literally the worst list I've seen in 2012. You have absolutely no idea what you're doing here...way out of your league. Sorry, but someone had to break it to you.Thanks for trying though.

I like this guy...good schtick.

 

[lbouchard]

I agree with all but Cam. Yes, I expect his rushing TDs to go down (8 is a safe estimate IMO). Rushing yards are fairly consistent, so I'll stick with 700. That gives him a pretty high floor. I expect his passing to increase and offset rushing TD decline. He had no offseason to prepare, and Naanee was one of the worst starting WRs in the league. LaFell is a big upgrade. He's also a very hard worker, and I've seen multiple reports of him working on his passing a ton. I like Newton this year.

ETA: Just saw that apparently he has ADP of 12. I've been getting him late 2nd round in my leagues. At 12 I'll probably pass.

 

[LHUCKS]

I agree with all but Cam.

Yes, I expect his rushing TDs to go down (8 is a safe estimate IMO). Rushing yards are fairly consistent, so I'll stick with 700. That gives him a pretty high floor. I expect his passing to increase and offset rushing TD decline. He had no offseason to prepare, and Naanee was one of the worst starting WRs in the league. LaFell is a big upgrade. He's also a very hard worker, and I've seen multiple reports of him working on his passing a ton. I like Newton this year.ETA: Just saw that apparently he has ADP of 12. I've been getting him late 2nd round in my leagues. At 12 I'll probably pass.

It's all about his ADP when compared to other QB ADPs...he's simply going too high.

 

[bagger]

other than trich i agree.

 

[johnadams]

I need an emoticon for stabbing my eyes out with an ice pick. I can't believe that I'm on board with each of these picks.

Brady: There's depth, but Brady's continued gaudy numbers justify a high ranking in the QB tier. But I see plenty of guys who are going 4-5 rounds later that I'd be almost as happy with. Tremendous value for QB in rounds 5+.

Fitz: I'm not buying that he repeats his lofty 17+ ypc, a career high. I don't see his catch total changing much (80-85 range), and if he falls back to his career average of around 14 ypc, that's putting him at 1200 yards. Good numbers to be sure, but not an early second rounder.

Richardson: I think he'll do okay, but I have enough uncertainty (I really don't like to see rookies RBs that are expected to carry a big load getting dinged up in pre-season) and its a huge adjustment. If pressed, I'd say at the end of the year, he's likelier to live up to expectations, but I don't really want to burn an early pick to find out.

Newton: Same thoughts as Brady, but add that he has only one year to gauge and it means I'm taking a pass that early.

Jennings: I just don't see enough upside to justify an early pick. Sure, he could surprise and become that 100 catch WR that we've all expected him to be, but he's never eclipsed 80 grabs and he's yielding deep routes to both Nelson and Cobb.

The reality is, I like all of these players and would be happy if they fell to a spot I liked. I just don't like where they are going.

 

[LHUCKS]

I need an emoticon for stabbing my eyes out with an ice pick. I can't believe that I'm on board with each of these picks.

 

[joffer]

[QUOTE='LHUCKS]IMHO
[/QUOTE] gets me every time

 

[David Yudkin]

If 5000/50 is overvalued for Brady at 5, then I agree with you. He will have the TDs from 2007 and most of the yardage from 2011.

 

[Warrior]

Just kidding. I agree with all except for Richardson.

 

[LHUCKS]

If 5000/50 is overvalued for Brady at 5, then I agree with you. He will have the TDs from 2007 and most of the yardage from 2011.

Last year was his ceiling IMHO...so I think we agree.As mentioned earlier, a modest regression coupled with QB value in later rounds make #5 too high.

 

[LHUCKS]

Just kidding. I agree with all except for Richardson.

 

[EBF]

If Richardson is healthy then I think he can be a top 5 back this year despite his supporting cast.

I'm not sure there's a better all-around back in the NFL right now.

The knee is a bit of a concern though.

 

[David Yudkin]

If 5000/50 is overvalued for Brady at 5, then I agree with you. He will have the TDs from 2007 and most of the yardage from 2011.

Last year was his ceiling IMHO...so I think we agree.As mentioned earlier, a modest regression coupled with QB value in later rounds make #5 too high.

I think you missed where I was headed with this. IMO, Brady will be at or near 5000 yards again and in the running for 50 TD. I will let you decide, with those numbers, if he is worth it or not worth it at pick #5.

 

[Shutout]

QBBC always seems like such a wonderful strategy, until you actually have to implement it every week when submitting your lineup. ADP 5 may be a bit high for Brady, but I don't necesarily see it s a horrible pick.

Agree. Nice strategy in theory but not fun when you're sitting there trying to decide betwwen Shaub and Fitzpatrick and you're playing against Brees,etc.I don't see how anyone can dog Brady. Guy's awesome.

 

[LHUCKS]

If Richardson is healthy then I think he can be a top 5 back this year despite his supporting cast.I'm not sure there's a better all-around back in the NFL right now. The knee is a bit of a concern though.

You've always loved your rookies EBF!!Let me ask you this, in the history of the NFL how many rookie RBs have finished top 5 in fantasy?

 

[LHUCKS]

QBBC always seems like such a wonderful strategy, until you actually have to implement it every week when submitting your lineup. ADP 5 may be a bit high for Brady, but I don't necesarily see it s a horrible pick.

Agree. Nice strategy in theory but not fun when you're sitting there trying to decide betwwen Shaub and Fitzpatrick and you're playing against Brees,etc.I don't see how anyone can dog Brady. Guy's awesome.

to be clear, I'm not dogging him...he's going to put up big numbers. I'm dogging his ADP relative to other QB ADPs. Big difference.

 

[LHUCKS]

If 5000/50 is overvalued for Brady at 5, then I agree with you. He will have the TDs from 2007 and most of the yardage from 2011.

Last year was his ceiling IMHO...so I think we agree.As mentioned earlier, a modest regression coupled with QB value in later rounds make #5 too high.

I think you missed where I was headed with this. IMO, Brady will be at or near 5000 yards again and in the running for 50 TD. I will let you decide, with those numbers, if he is worth it or not worth it at pick #5.

In that case, we simply disagree.What are your thoughts on his decreased pass attempts in the second half of the year?

 

[EBF]

If Richardson is healthy then I think he can be a top 5 back this year despite his supporting cast.I'm not sure there's a better all-around back in the NFL right now. The knee is a bit of a concern though.

You've always loved your rookies EBF!!Let me ask you this, in the history of the NFL how many rookie RBs have finished top 5 in fantasy?

Rookies can be great picks because people are afraid to pull the trigger where their talent level justifies. Your question is not the right one to be asking because very few rookie RBs in the history of the NFL have been as talented as Richardson.Of the ones who had that level of ability, Tomlinson, James, and Peterson did great as rookies on bad teams. Trent is capable of the same thing. I might get panned for saying it, but I think he's a better overall running back than guys like McCoy, Rice, and Foster. He's that good. For me it's just a matter of whether Cleveland's offense can be halfway decent to support him and whether his knee will be 100% all year.

 

[jurb26]

For me it's just a matter of whether Cleveland's offense can be halfway decent to support him and whether his knee will be 100% all year.

to me these aren't questions at all. Clev is set up perfectly for RB success and the knee will be fine. Buy, buy, buy.

 

[LHUCKS]

Rookies can be great picks because people are afraid to pull the trigger where their talent level justifies.

Not at that ADP.

Your question is not the right one to be asking because very few rookie RBs in the history of the NFL have been as talented as Richardson.

I think you can grab 20 HOF rookie RBs and look at their numbers...I think you'd be surprised to find out very few of them finish top 5.

For me it's just a matter of whether Cleveland's offense can be halfway decent to support him and whether his knee will be 100% all year.

Those certainly are a few of the risks. I think our major disagreement is on the reward.

 

[EBF]

Peterson was a monster for me in redrafts as a rookie because a lot of people undervalued him using the same kind of reasoning you are.

Exceptional players can make an instant impact, especially at RB, where the learning curve is basically nil. I think the underwhelming rookie RB crops of the last couple years have caused some people to forget this, but I expect a bit of a revival this year with Richardson and (to a lesser extent) Martin poised to potentially be top 10 RBs immediately.

I haven't really been paying attention to redraft ADP because I only play in one redraft league these days, but if Richardson is there around the RB8-10 range then he's a great pick. He is the best RB prospect I have seen since I started following the draft. And this happens to be a year where there are tons of question marks in the RB ranks. MJD. McFadden. Charles. Forte. Mathews. It's not like any of those guys are safe picks. Except for maybe Forte, they all have major warts.

Provided that he can be 100% healthy for the majority of the season, I think Trent will be a very solid FF RB in his rookie year, especially in PPR leagues.