LHUCKS' top 5 Overvalued in ADP top 30 (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

Peterson was a monster for me in redrafts as a rookie because a lot of people undervalued him using the same kind of reasoning you are.

I don't put Richardson in Peterson's class...so that's one of the places we disagree.I haven't really been paying attention to redraft ADP because I only play in one redraft league these days, but if Richardson is there around the RB8-10 range then he's a

great pick. He is the best RB prospect I have seen since I started following the draft. And this happens to be a year where there are tons of question marks in the RB ranks. MJD. McFadden. Charles. Forte. Mathews. It's not like any of those guys are safe picks. Except for maybe Forte, they all have major warts.

Now this I agree with and would be solid reasoning for taking a chance on Richardson.

 

[David Yudkin]

If Richardson is healthy then I think he can be a top 5 back this year despite his supporting cast.I'm not sure there's a better all-around back in the NFL right now. The knee is a bit of a concern though.

You've always loved your rookies EBF!!Let me ask you this, in the history of the NFL how many rookie RBs have finished top 5 in fantasy?

Eric DickersonEdgerrin JamesClinton PortisBilly SimsFred TaylorCurtis MartinCurt WarnerBarry SandersGeorge RogersMike AndersonMarshall FaulkOttis AndersonMatt ForteHerschel WalkerAdrian PetersonJoe CribbsEarl CampbellDon woodsJerome BettisTony DorsettMarcus Allen

 

[LHUCKS]

If Richardson is healthy then I think he can be a top 5 back this year despite his supporting cast.I'm not sure there's a better all-around back in the NFL right now. The knee is a bit of a concern though.

You've always loved your rookies EBF!!Let me ask you this, in the history of the NFL how many rookie RBs have finished top 5 in fantasy?

Eric DickersonEdgerrin JamesClinton PortisBilly SimsFred TaylorCurtis MartinCurt WarnerBarry SandersGeorge RogersMike AndersonMarshall FaulkOttis AndersonMatt ForteHerschel WalkerAdrian PetersonJoe CribbsEarl CampbellDon woodsJerome BettisTony DorsettMarcus Allen

Thanks for the list Yudkin.For the history of the league that is a short list and roughly half of those guys are HOFers.

 

[Da Man]

If 5000/50 is overvalued for Brady at 5, then I agree with you. He will have the TDs from 2007 and most of the yardage from 2011.

Shock and awe part 2 in New England this year. Do not, I repeat do not believe that Brady is overvalued at #5. He is going to have a season for the ages...bank on it!!

 

[Da Man]

If 5000/50 is overvalued for Brady at 5, then I agree with you. He will have the TDs from 2007 and most of the yardage from 2011.

Last year was his ceiling IMHO...so I think we agree.As mentioned earlier, a modest regression coupled with QB value in later rounds make #5 too high.

I think you missed where I was headed with this. IMO, Brady will be at or near 5000 yards again and in the running for 50 TD. I will let you decide, with those numbers, if he is worth it or not worth it at pick #5.

In that case, we simply disagree.What are your thoughts on his decreased pass attempts in the second half of the year?

LHUcks,What are your thoughts on Brady having more total fantasy points over the second half of the year?

 

[pantherclub]

Though I agree with most of em, Brady aside.

Of course you do, I know things.As for Brady, yeah, people wont want to hear that. I'd be fine with the late first round or 2nd round...but #5, not even close.

Honestly whats the difference from five to "late first round". That really doesnt make any sense.

 

[Zeff]

I see WAY more players than I'd like to with what I'd consider to be "high risk factors" going in the first few rounds this year. I think it's an excellent year to play it safe. Especially if by "safe," we mean 5,000/40 or thereabouts.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

Peterson was a monster for me in redrafts as a rookie because a lot of people undervalued him using the same kind of reasoning you

I'm higher on Richardson than many, but i dont think Ap is a good comp. AP fell in redrafts because he was in a full blown RBBC. You saw the talent and took him anyway so credit to you. I was scared off. Bad mistake, not my first or last

 

[Gr00vus]

You betcha...give me RUN DMC all day. That's a pick that's playing to win.

So drafting McCallister at the 5 spot is playing to win, but drafting Richardson in the 2nd round is too risky?

 

[TwinTurbo]

Since Jennings ADP is in the late 3rd round, usually outside the top 30 picks, does he really qualify as an early pick? I think Jennings and Nicks are two WR that are undervalued if anything at their current ADP since they are proven WR1 that you can buy at WR2 prices.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

also-great topic LHUCKS. We need more of these and less of the pointless name calling. I disagree wrt Brady and Richardson, but the point is to have the dialogue and maybe learn



I'm in Yudkins camp with Brady so he's very high on my list-definitely top 3 as my leagues are QB heavy.

I do think Richardson has special talent so am hoping to get him in the 2nd round

 

[Gr00vus]

QBBC always seems like such a wonderful strategy, until you actually have to implement it every week when submitting your lineup. ADP 5 may be a bit high for Brady, but I don't necesarily see it s a horrible pick.

Agree. Nice strategy in theory but not fun when you're sitting there trying to decide betwwen Shaub and Fitzpatrick and you're playing against Brees,etc.I don't see how anyone can dog Brady. Guy's awesome.

In regard to QBBC, more often than not I start the season/draft that way. What tends to end up happening is one of the guys you select (or somebody you grab off the WW to replace a non-performing member of the QBBC) emerges as your goto guy for a majority of the time, maybe you play a choice match up once or twice from then on out. Generally I have my best success in FF drafting QBBC, it gives you a big advantage over the rest of your roster.

 

[Vector]

I don't put Richardson in Peterson's class...so that's one of the places we disagree.

I got AD in round 7 as a rook. Times they are a changing. A lot of that had to do with less teams running RBBC and more featured backs though. Always need to take that into account now.Still... rooks need to prove themselves. Especially in redrafts.

 

[Kleck]

1. Tom Brady - ADP #5 - His three year average is significantly lower than last year's numbers and there are several addittional reasons why the golden boy may be a bit overrated this year. a) Improved Defense b) Better running game (IMHO) c) BB wants to be more balanced (IMHO). 5 is way too high IMHO for a position that is relatively deep. Go QBBC instead or draft Brees or a runningback at #5.

#5 overall? I'm not a huge fan of that either. I have not seen that in any of my drafts thus far though. Nor have I seen Brees go #5 like you suggest drafting at that spot instead. That's just as crazy. Late 1st to early/mid 2nd depending on format is more like it. With that said, Brady is a safe pick. Unless he gets hurt I don't see any way that he doesn't finish amongst the top QBs and put up stud numbers.

2. Larry Fitzgerald - #15 - Skelton is better for Fitz then Kolb, but there are warning signs all over AZ. Not only are the QBs unproven, the OL is in shambles and the RBs can't stay on the field. Too many risk factors for an early 2nd round pick IMHO...and I love Fitz as a player.

How different is this that last year? And he was Top 5 in 2011. Again, a safe pick and unless he gets hurt he will not be the reason you lose if you take him in the 2nd. There probably will be better WRs by seasons end, but I just don't see Fitz posting anything too far off his norm. I'm of the belief that leagues are won in the mid & later rounds rounds so going safe with a guy like Fitz at the start is not a bad thing.

3. Trent Richardson - ADP #24 - Rookie RB on a terrible offense. Further, he has already ran into some injury trouble. I'll pass on Richardson at this ADP with other value plays at RB a full round later or even more.

This one is a risk. He's gone mid 2nd or higher in all my drafts. Plus side I believe he has a good opportunity for 300+ touches. Down side is there are more proven bets. At #24, I'd be OK with pairing him with Foster/Rice/McCoy if I can also land a stud WR or QB at the same turn.

4. Cam Newton - ADP #12 - Just way too high with a deep QB class. His Rushing TDs have nowhere to go but down and his second half dropoff is of serious concern. No Thanks. Exciting player, but don't want him on my fantasy squad at this price.

I have not seen Cam go in the 1st round in any drafts, and I'd pass too at #12 like all my leagues have. These ranking seems way too QB heavy.

5. Greg Jennings - ADP #29 - Less than 75 yards in 5 of last 6 games played last year. Has always been an overrated talent and IMHO is the fourth most talented target at Rodgers' disposal behind Finley, Cobb and Nelson. Add in Benson who will improve the running game. No thanks. Don't draft this guy on numbers from two years ago.

You like to hate Jennings. He may not have elite size and abilities like Calvin, Fitz, AJ, but he's a great fit for the Packers offensive scheme. With the emergence of Nelson, and Finley still being someone to respect, he could see fewer double teams this year. Unless he gets hurt, I think he's safe like Fitz, but at a lower cost. He was on pace for another top 5 finish last year until the MCL injury. If you don't like someone on a 1200/10 pace, then pass. In the 3rd round, I'll take that.

I will give you more, but you'll have to beg.

I'm sure you will do an undervalued list too. How about some 4-6, or even 7-9, round guys that can really make your season? That's where the real debates are, IMO.

 

[pantherclub]

So, for the sake of argument let's work off the premise that Brady will regress (there are compelling arguments to be made to the contrary). Say he only throws for 4500 and 35. You still get top 5 QB production with little to no risk and you almost certainly haven't trashed your draft in making that pick.

It's a safe pick, but you can get similar production from Stafford next round. Maybe even a QBBC if you play your cards right.

I understand playing to win. I just think this year the cost of the backs in the 5 hole are saddled with too much risk and not enough upside. Danger lurks all around at RB in that spot.

Then take a safer RB like Johnson or take Brees if you don't want the risk. Personally I think this is the year that McFadden stays on the field and proves he is the best pure runner in the game.

For the love of God, please explain to me how you can get the production of Brady with a QBBC? No offense man but you are a little off on this one. All the others maybe I can see.

 

[pantherclub]

If Richardson is healthy then I think he can be a top 5 back this year despite his supporting cast.



I'm not sure there's a better all-around back in the NFL right now.

The knee is a bit of a concern though.

WTF?

 

[LHUCKS]

If Richardson is healthy then I think he can be a top 5 back this year despite his supporting cast.



I'm not sure there's a better all-around back in the NFL right now.

The knee is a bit of a concern though.

WTF?

yeah, a bit of a stretch...the Richardson hype is out of control.McFadden ripped up the SEC way more than Richardson.

 

[LHUCKS]

QBBC always seems like such a wonderful strategy, until you actually have to implement it every week when submitting your lineup. ADP 5 may be a bit high for Brady, but I don't necesarily see it s a horrible pick.

Agree. Nice strategy in theory but not fun when you're sitting there trying to decide betwwen Shaub and Fitzpatrick and you're playing against Brees,etc.I don't see how anyone can dog Brady. Guy's awesome.

In regard to QBBC, more often than not I start the season/draft that way. What tends to end up happening is one of the guys you select (or somebody you grab off the WW to replace a non-performing member of the QBBC) emerges as your goto guy for a majority of the time, maybe you play a choice match up once or twice from then on out. Generally I have my best success in FF drafting QBBC, it gives you a big advantage over the rest of your roster.

exactly, I have a feeling people are incorrectly drafting their QBBCs. Last year I had Stafford in 4 of 5 leagues, including my FFPC league. Started out as a QBBC, the rest was money in the bank.

 

[jurb26]

If Richardson is healthy then I think he can be a top 5 back this year despite his supporting cast.



I'm not sure there's a better all-around back in the NFL right now.

The knee is a bit of a concern though.

WTF?

yeah, a bit of a stretch...the Richardson hype is out of control.McFadden ripped up the SEC way more than Richardson.

McFadden is the guy who is actually the best RB in football.

 

[LHUCKS]

Since Jennings ADP is in the late 3rd round, usually outside the top 30 picks, does he really qualify as an early pick? I think Jennings and Nicks are two WR that are undervalued if anything at their current ADP since they are proven WR1 that you can buy at WR2 prices.

The ADP is straight from Sportsline. Nicks is on my target list.

 

[LHUCKS]

If Richardson is healthy then I think he can be a top 5 back this year despite his supporting cast.



I'm not sure there's a better all-around back in the NFL right now.

The knee is a bit of a concern though.

WTF?

yeah, a bit of a stretch...the Richardson hype is out of control.McFadden ripped up the SEC way more than Richardson.

McFadden is the guy who is actually the best RB in football.

I already stated that earlier in this thread...he just needs to stay on the field. He's looking for a new contract soon so he's going to have incentive to stay on the field too.

 

[LHUCKS]

For the love of God, please explain to me how you can get the production of Brady with a QBBC? No offense man but you are a little off on this one. All the others maybe I can see.

Last year Stafford was a part of my QBBC...in 4 of 5 leagues including my FFPC squad.

 

[Clifford]

Please stop, your in typical forum of not knowing what you are even talking about.

Please don't pee in the pool, guy.

Yeah, very poor forum.

 

[Dez]

Peyton Hillis did ok in 2010

 

[LHUCKS]

You betcha...give me RUN DMC all day. That's a pick that's playing to win.

So drafting McCallister at the 5 spot is playing to win, but drafting Richardson in the 2nd round is too risky?

If we're going risk averse, I'd take Chris Johnson at #5.

 

[LHUCKS]

If 5000/50 is overvalued for Brady at 5, then I agree with you. He will have the TDs from 2007 and most of the yardage from 2011.

Shock and awe part 2 in New England this year. Do not, I repeat do not believe that Brady is overvalued at #5. He is going to have a season for the ages...bank on it!!

Nice to see the Pats homers checking in.

 

[LHUCKS]

For the record I have Brady at 4600 and 36.

 

[LHUCKS]

also-great topic LHUCKS. We need more of these

 

[Gr00vus]

You betcha...give me RUN DMC all day. That's a pick that's playing to win.

So drafting McCallister at the 5 spot is playing to win, but drafting Richardson in the 2nd round is too risky?

If we're going risk averse, I'd take Chris Johnson at #5.

I'm not saying to go risk averse (I think this year, you have to take some sizable risks given the amount of uncertainty among running backs), I'm asking why McCallister is a good risk at the 5 spot overall, but Richardson isn't a good risk in the 2nd round, which you seem to be implying. I don't think Richardson is as good a prospect as Peterson was, but I do think Richardson is the best RB prospect to come along since Peterson, and his situation is better than Peterson's was when he arrived. Even if Richardson isn't quite as good as McCallister, and accounting for not yet playing at the NFL level (I don't see any reason to think he can't be successful, apart from injury), at an approximately 1.5 round discount, he doesn't strike me as more risky than McCallister at the 5 spot.

 

[LHUCKS]

LHUcks,What are your thoughts on Brady having more total fantasy points over the second half of the year?

Product of a weaker schedule and a terrible Pats D.

 

[LHUCKS]

I'm not saying to go risk averse (I think this year, you have to take some sizable risks given the amount of uncertainty among running backs), I'm asking why McCallister is a good risk at the 5 spot overall, but Richardson isn't a good risk in the 2nd round, which you seem to be implying.

You mean McFadden, not McCallister, anyhow...A) McFadden is the best pure runningback in football(he or AP)B) McFadden is a great WRC) McFadden has incentive to stay on the field this yearBasically the highest ceiling of any RB in the league outside of Arian Foster...it's a risk/reward play. Like I said if you don't want the risk the play is Chris Johnsnon or McCoy if he slides to 5.

 

[OldMilwaukee]

exactly, I have a feeling people are incorrectly drafting their QBBCs.

Please expand on this.:Begging:

 

[OldMilwaukee]

exactly, I have a feeling people are incorrectly drafting their QBBCs. Last year I had Stafford in 4 of 5 leagues, including my FFPC league. Started out as a QBBC, the rest was money in the bank.

in before the edit......Who do you like QBBC this year.

 

[EBF]

McFadden can't take a hit.

Four years in the league and he's stayed healthy...never?

You can't be the best RB in football if you can't stay on the field.

 

[LHUCKS]

exactly, I have a feeling people are incorrectly drafting their QBBCs.

Please expand on this.:Begging:

Many experts erroneouly base their QBBC analysis articles on matchups and schedule. A more effective QBBC strategy SHOULD be focused on taking two upside QBs. Stafford was clear upside last year...I repeated it over and over in this forum.

 

[LHUCKS]

McFadden can't take a hit.Four years in the league and he's stayed healthy...never?You can't be the best RB in football if you can't stay on the field.

there is risk, but significant reward too. I have him and Chris Johnson almost even so it's not just about McFadden vs. Brady. There are several players I take over Brady at #5.

 

[David Yudkin]

Since LHUCKS had some concerns about Brady, I figured that I would throw some stuff out there.

Pats turnover differential in Games 1-8 last year: Even. Pats turnover differential in Games 9-16: +17. People ask why Brady may have had fewer passing attempts but more fantasy points in the latter half of the season, there's your answer. The Pats got the ball a ton and had better field position. Drives were shorter, so passes were not as big a requirement. And the difference in attempts was marginal. First 8 games: 321, last 8 games: 290. Oh, did I mention the Pats scored 291 points in the second half of the season (36.4 ppg)?

Brady also added 3 rushing TD at the end of the season for a total of 22 TD in the final 8 games.

One reason the Pats passed so much was that for the most part the defense was horrible. Even that might be too kind. Yes, they added some potentially decent rookies, but it's pretty much the same crew that looked lost last year and couldn't get off the field or stop the pass.

The running game this year is pretty much unproven. BJGE is gone and they did not really add anyone noteworthy. While Vereen and Ridley may be quicker, we have no idea how they will do. My initial case is inconsisently . . . and on same games ineffectively.

Instead of adding a real RB threat, the Pats instead added Lloyd, Gaffney, and Stallworth to give Brady even more weapons to throw to. None of this screams to me that the Pats will be run centric or they will rely on the pass less this year.

They also added Josh McDaniels, he of the 2007 season with 50 passes and a lethal air attack before it became common to throw the ball all over the yard. Yes, McDaniels uses running backs . . . to catch screens. And we saw how hard the Pats tried to score and score and score back then.

So heading into 2012, Brady now has elite TEs to throw two, a better WR corps, and guys now coming out of the backfield to catch the football.

Some will point to an (on paper) tough schedule against the pass this year. I agree, if in fact those oppoents really are tougher, Brady will see a drop off in production in those games. Let's also say he faces 8 Top pass defenses (like he did in 2009 or the 9 he faced in 2010). I checked and in the 29 games since 2007 where he faced Top 10 defenses, Brady averaged 253 yards and 2.25 TD per game. For argument's sake, let's say he repeats that perfromance level against those 8 Top 10 defenses. That would mean in 8 games he would total 2024/18.

Last year, against non-Top 10 defenses, Brady averaged 345/2.8 per game. While people may say that's insanely high, I ask why? The Pats have shown that they will commit to the pass and run up the score. Common sense says that the Pats should sit Brady with a 50 point lead . . . but they haven't ever done that. For whatever reason, BB seems inclined to keep the ball in the air and rack up the points. Again, for argument's sake, let's use the same numbers against not Top 10 defenses this year. That would be 2760/23.

Again, humor me by adding those two together. I get 4784/41. Now, mind you, that included factoring in having BJGE, but did not include having McDaniels, Lloyd, Gaffney, or Stallworth. IMO, I would say all of that leads me to think Brady would be north of those numbers . . . and that already accounts for playing 8 Top 10 defenses into the equation (based on how he's done recently against top passing defenses).

The only fly in the ointmenthere is if the Pats have long term OL injuries or issues. I have been following this situation. mankins is back in camp and is said to be a beast. He spent his entire rehab working on his upper body and is now a mountain man and stronger than ever. For now, he has slowed some in his manual dexterity and range, but front to back he is fine and added a ton of muscle. Koppen is back and doing well. Vollmer is coming back this week and shows signs of being able to contribute right away, although back injuries are a bit hard to predict as to when they will flare up and when they won't. From the sound of it, Waters is expected back right before the season starts. He didn't show up uto camp until 9/4 last year, at this stage I would consider it a surprise if he didn't come back. From what I have heard/seen, Solder has been holding his own, and paired with Mankins should be more than adequate and will potentially minimize the loss of Matt Light. The only bad thing I have seen about the OL is that Marcus Cannon has been overmatched trying to play RT and they have been trying to coach him up and work on his technique. It sounds like he is getting overmatched by big D-lineman and pushed around a lot. Dan Connolly has been playing the role of super sub and is not a liability no matter where he lines up. In the main, the Pats are expecting a full OL with some depth to be ready by Opening Day.

All in all, I don't see anything not to like about the Pats passing game this year. Some people have suggested that since Brady hit 35 suddenly he will be frail, lose his mojo, not have as much on the ball, will be more apt to get injured, and the like. I would say if there were signs of that I would agree, but he had a pretty decent year at 34.

 

[LHUCKS]

exactly, I have a feeling people are incorrectly drafting their QBBCs. Last year I had Stafford in 4 of 5 leagues, including my FFPC league. Started out as a QBBC, the rest was money in the bank.

in before the edit......Who do you like QBBC this year.

I try to get two of the following:VickEliRomoRoethlisberger

 

[David Yudkin]

exactly, I have a feeling people are incorrectly drafting their QBBCs. Last year I had Stafford in 4 of 5 leagues, including my FFPC league. Started out as a QBBC, the rest was money in the bank.

in before the edit......Who do you like QBBC this year.

I try to get two of the following:VickEliRomoRoethlisberger

My concer with that strategy is those aren't late round picks. They may not even be mid round picks. So you would be having to burn two picks to get those guys vs. one for an early round QB when there would still be decent RB and WR available.

 

[OldMilwaukee]

exactly, I have a feeling people are incorrectly drafting their QBBCs. Last year I had Stafford in 4 of 5 leagues, including my FFPC league. Started out as a QBBC, the rest was money in the bank.

in before the edit......Who do you like QBBC this year.

I try to get two of the following:VickEliRomoRoethlisberger

My concer with that strategy is those aren't late round picks.

agree...QBBC should be backups.Brady??? draft I wont until the third.

 

[LHUCKS]

exactly, I have a feeling people are incorrectly drafting their QBBCs. Last year I had Stafford in 4 of 5 leagues, including my FFPC league. Started out as a QBBC, the rest was money in the bank.

in before the edit......Who do you like QBBC this year.

I try to get two of the following:VickEliRomoRoethlisberger

My concer with that strategy is those aren't late round picks. They may not even be mid round picks. So you would be having to burn two picks to get those guys vs. one for an early round QB when there would still be decent RB and WR available.

you have to balance it with the WR/RBs that are available...I don't take my second QB if there are RBs or WRs with upside that I like. I think this is what separates the average drafters from the great drafters. Also, we all know the RBs available in these rounds are gambles whereas the QBs are much safer in terms of PPG production.

 

[pantherclub]

Since LHUCKS had some concerns about Brady, I figured that I would throw some stuff out there.Pats turnover differential in Games 1-8 last year: Even. Pats turnover differential in Games 9-16: +17. People ask why Brady may have had fewer passing attempts but more fantasy points in the latter half of the season, there's your answer. The Pats got the ball a ton and had better field position. Drives were shorter, so passes were not as big a requirement. And the difference in attempts was marginal. First 8 games: 321, last 8 games: 290. Oh, did I mention the Pats scored 291 points in the second half of the season (36.4 ppg)?Brady also added 3 rushing TD at the end of the season for a total of 22 TD in the final 8 games.One reason the Pats passed so much was that for the most part the defense was horrible. Even that might be too kind. Yes, they added some potentially decent rookies, but it's pretty much the same crew that looked lost last year and couldn't get off the field or stop the pass.The running game this year is pretty much unproven. BJGE is gone and they did not really add anyone noteworthy. While Vereen and Ridley may be quicker, we have no idea how they will do. My initial case is inconsisently . . . and on same games ineffectively.Instead of adding a real RB threat, the Pats instead added Lloyd, Gaffney, and Stallworth to give Brady even more weapons to throw to. None of this screams to me that the Pats will be run centric or they will rely on the pass less this year.They also added Josh McDaniels, he of the 2007 season with 50 passes and a lethal air attack before it became common to throw the ball all over the yard. Yes, McDaniels uses running backs . . . to catch screens. And we saw how hard the Pats tried to score and score and score back then. So heading into 2012, Brady now has elite TEs to throw two, a better WR corps, and guys now coming out of the backfield to catch the football.Some will point to an (on paper) tough schedule against the pass this year. I agree, if in fact those oppoents really are tougher, Brady will see a drop off in production in those games. Let's also say he faces 8 Top pass defenses (like he did in 2009 or the 9 he faced in 2010). I checked and in the 29 games since 2007 where he faced Top 10 defenses, Brady averaged 253 yards and 2.25 TD per game. For argument's sake, let's say he repeats that perfromance level against those 8 Top 10 defenses. That would mean in 8 games he would total 2024/18.Last year, against non-Top 10 defenses, Brady averaged 345/2.8 per game. While people may say that's insanely high, I ask why? The Pats have shown that they will commit to the pass and run up the score. Common sense says that the Pats should sit Brady with a 50 point lead . . . but they haven't ever done that. For whatever reason, BB seems inclined to keep the ball in the air and rack up the points. Again, for argument's sake, let's use the same numbers against not Top 10 defenses this year. That would be 2760/23.Again, humor me by adding those two together. I get 4784/41. Now, mind you, that included factoring in having BJGE, but did not include having McDaniels, Lloyd, Gaffney, or Stallworth. IMO, I would say all of that leads me to think Brady would be north of those numbers . . . and that already accounts for playing 8 Top 10 defenses into the equation (based on how he's done recently against top passing defenses).The only fly in the ointmenthere is if the Pats have long term OL injuries or issues. I have been following this situation. mankins is back in camp and is said to be a beast. He spent his entire rehab working on his upper body and is now a mountain man and stronger than ever. For now, he has slowed some in his manual dexterity and range, but front to back he is fine and added a ton of muscle. Koppen is back and doing well. Vollmer is coming back this week and shows signs of being able to contribute right away, although back injuries are a bit hard to predict as to when they will flare up and when they won't. From the sound of it, Waters is expected back right before the season starts. He didn't show up uto camp until 9/4 last year, at this stage I would consider it a surprise if he didn't come back. From what I have heard/seen, Solder has been holding his own, and paired with Mankins should be more than adequate and will potentially minimize the loss of Matt Light. The only bad thing I have seen about the OL is that Marcus Cannon has been overmatched trying to play RT and they have been trying to coach him up and work on his technique. It sounds like he is getting overmatched by big D-lineman and pushed around a lot. Dan Connolly has been playing the role of super sub and is not a liability no matter where he lines up. In the main, the Pats are expecting a full OL with some depth to be ready by Opening Day.All in all, I don't see anything not to like about the Pats passing game this year. Some people have suggested that since Brady hit 35 suddenly he will be frail, lose his mojo, not have as much on the ball, will be more apt to get injured, and the like. I would say if there were signs of that I would agree, but he had a pretty decent year at 34.

ding ding dingPost of the decadeThis tells me he is worth the #1 overall pick going away.

 

[pantherclub]

exactly, I have a feeling people are incorrectly drafting their QBBCs. Last year I had Stafford in 4 of 5 leagues, including my FFPC league. Started out as a QBBC, the rest was money in the bank.

in before the edit......Who do you like QBBC this year.

I try to get two of the following:Vick

Eli

Romo

Roethlisberger

good luck with that dude

 

[LHUCKS]

Deagree...QBBC should be backups.

Roethlisberger's ADP is #83The next RB is Deangelo Williams at #88Just to give you some perspective.

 

[pantherclub]

Deagree...QBBC should be backups.

Roethlisberger's ADP is #83The next RB is Deangelo Williams at #88Just to give you some perspective.

I would rather roll the dice with Dwill since Ben has only had one marginally good year.

 

[bolldpt]

Enjoyed your reads over the years.

thanks, I've been here for 14 years, some reads I'm sure were better than others.I feel old.

It's cuz you are old

 

[OldMilwaukee]

ding ding dingPost of the decadeThis tells me he is worth the #1 overall pick going away.

The koolaid is quite pleasant going down.

 

[Kleck]

exactly, I have a feeling people are incorrectly drafting their QBBCs. Last year I had Stafford in 4 of 5 leagues, including my FFPC league. Started out as a QBBC, the rest was money in the bank.

in before the edit......Who do you like QBBC this year.

I try to get two of the following:VickEliRomoRoethlisberger

My concer with that strategy is those aren't late round picks. They may not even be mid round picks. So you would be having to burn two picks to get those guys vs. one for an early round QB when there would still be decent RB and WR available.

Since this thread is based on Sportsline ADP, here is what they have for their ADPs:Vick - 35Eli - 39Romo - 46Roethlisberger - 83

 

[LHUCKS]

Deagree...QBBC should be backups.

Roethlisberger's ADP is #83The next RB is Deangelo Williams at #88Just to give you some perspective.

I would rather roll the dice with Dwill since Ben has only had one marginally good year.

He had 4000 yards in 15 games last year.

 

[pantherclub]

Looking at Bens game breakdown from last year he had 5 multi TD games, 3 2td games, 1 5td game and 1 3 td game. Good luck rolling out with that.