LHUCKS' top 5 Overvalued in ADP top 30 (1 Viewer)

[David Yudkin]

the bottom line if you're picking #5 is that if you want either Brady or Stafford, you have to draft him here. Thus, value, at least vis-a-vis those two guys and this pick, is irrelevant.

For the record I likely take Chris Johnson there.

So Johnson's downward trend for pretty much every catagory across the board of the past two years since his monster season doesn ot trouble . . . not even a little bit? I don't view him as a Top 5 back at this point. He may do ok, but he to me seems more risky than Brady or Brees.

 

[LHUCKS]

3 pages of LHucks posts You can tell the noobs who think they are learning something from him.Only thing I'm learning is to draft everyone he is saying is overvalued. Can someone post a link to when LHucks has been right?

150 posts and 3300 views in less than 20 hours...with a strategy thread.I challenge you to find that kind of production somewhere else, sport.

 

[LHUCKS]

the bottom line if you're picking #5 is that if you want either Brady or Stafford, you have to draft him here. Thus, value, at least vis-a-vis those two guys and this pick, is irrelevant.

For the record I likely take Chris Johnson there.

So Johnson's downward trend for pretty much every catagory across the board of the past two years since his monster season doesn ot trouble . . . not even a little bit? I don't view him as a Top 5 back at this point. He may do ok, but he to me seems more risky than Brady or Brees.

He had 1400 total yards last year despite all the negative factors such as the holdout and a terrible supporting cast...which is why he is value this year.Johnson is a solid pick at #5 IMHO.

 

[David Yudkin]

The other thing I forgot to add is that by having capable options for every on the field, that may not lead to more passes . . . but it should lead to more guys being open and being more productive and efficient. I don't really care if the Pats score in 6 plays instead of 10 or if they score on 4 passes instead of 6. With more guys to cover, they should get more yardage per reception. Last year, Ocho was useless and Branch was mostly a non factor later in the year, so other than Welker could slack off on WR coverage and try to deal with the TEs. They won't be able to do that as much this year, and there will be more places on the field for open guys and/or RB out of the backfield. I suspect it will be a nightmare for DCs to figure out what they will give to NE.

Good point, but what happens if the oline can't block long enough for this to happen? Or if the defense decides to start dropping 8 into coverage to counteract this? Defenses could start daring NE to run the ball consistently. On the other hand, its not like last year defenses just decided not to cover Ocho/Branch. Last year Brady had a career high 8.6 ypa, do you really expect that to go up?

It doesn't have to go up . . . but it doesn't have to go way down either. If any team has mastered the dump off pass, it's the Patriots. I already reviewed the OL situation, so there really is no need to recap again here.The Pats have an arsenal of 1-3 step passes, WR screens, Welker dump offs, and short routes that teams haven't been able to stop for years. Last year, the TEs gave them more options for seam routes and let Welker have some deeper routes. Lloyd should also take coverage away from everyone else.To your point, sure, if any team can get constant pressure on any QB without having to blitz all the time, any QB may have some trouble. Not every team is the Giants. In Brady's last 3 healthy years, (07, 10, 11), he's accounted for 131 passing and rushing TD combined. That's a smidge under 44 on average. Even if we ignore 2007, that's still an average of 39.5 TD the other 2 years. IMO, pushing that up to 45 is not only reasonable, I would say probably. I won't fight anyone that says adding another 5 on top of that might be pushing it.

 

[David Yudkin]

the bottom line if you're picking #5 is that if you want either Brady or Stafford, you have to draft him here. Thus, value, at least vis-a-vis those two guys and this pick, is irrelevant.

For the record I likely take Chris Johnson there.

So Johnson's downward trend for pretty much every catagory across the board of the past two years since his monster season doesn ot trouble . . . not even a little bit? I don't view him as a Top 5 back at this point. He may do ok, but he to me seems more risky than Brady or Brees.

He had 1400 total yards last year despite all the negative factors such as the holdout and a terrible supporting cast...which is why he is value this year.Johnson is a solid pick at #5 IMHO.

I missed the part where the supporting cast got dramatically improved. Yes, they added Hutchinson, but I don't view him as the force he once was. Britt has health and suspension issues, and with Locker inserted I think that will end up hurting Johnson. Again, all his numbers have been trending down the past coulpe years. I see him in the Bottom half of the top 10, but from a scoring perspective way aways from the top RBs and in the back with several other guys. He's not a 300 fantasy point back. 200 points maybe . . . which make him not worth it at 5.

 

[Concept Coop]

Newtons rushing TDs dropped becuase the Panthers were at the goal line less. He ran the ball just as much down there, % wise.

And any potential for fewer rushing TDs is greatly offset by the potential for an increase in passing TDs.

27 passing TDs is a very reasonable number, and would make up for a massive dip in rushing TDs. If rushing TDs stay in the double digits, and the passing TDs hit 27 or so, we are looking at the top QB overall, potentially.

The "he can't do that again, he just can't" argument is lazy. The Pathers ran the same goal line play all year, and Cam kept it 50% of the time (vs. handing off) all year. That won't change.

 

[LHUCKS]

the bottom line if you're picking #5 is that if you want either Brady or Stafford, you have to draft him here. Thus, value, at least vis-a-vis those two guys and this pick, is irrelevant.

For the record I likely take Chris Johnson there.

So Johnson's downward trend for pretty much every catagory across the board of the past two years since his monster season doesn ot trouble . . . not even a little bit? I don't view him as a Top 5 back at this point. He may do ok, but he to me seems more risky than Brady or Brees.

He had 1400 total yards last year despite all the negative factors such as the holdout and a terrible supporting cast...which is why he is value this year.Johnson is a solid pick at #5 IMHO.

I missed the part where the supporting cast got dramatically improved.

The head coach said that, and I agree with him. The offense was a disaster last year. This is one of the team's that was adversely affected by the player holdout in my opinion. Another year of preparation and running threat in Locker are going to open up things for Johnson...just watch.

 

[David Yudkin]

Newtons rushing TDs dropped becuase the Panthers were at the goal line less. He ran the ball just as much down there, % wise.And any potential for fewer rushing TDs is greatly offset by the potential for an increase in passing TDs. 27 passing TDs is a very reasonable number, and would make up for a massive dip in rushing TDs. If rushing TDs stay in the double digits, and the passing TDs hit 27 or so, we are looking at the top QB overall, potentially. The "he can't do that again, he just can't" argument is lazy. The Pathers ran the same goal line play all year, and Cam kept it 50% of the time (vs. handing off) all year. That won't change.

Throw out the first month of the season and Cam's passing numbers would project out to 3500/21. Say what you want about the fact they ran the same play at the goal line but two things will happen. One, teams will try to take that play away and force them to do something else, and two, if the team is smart they won't keep getting their franchise QB running the ball and run the risk of injury exposure. Certainly I can't prove it, but I don't think that same play will work as much and they will go to Plan B for both of those reasons.

 

[LHUCKS]

Newtons rushing TDs dropped becuase the Panthers were at the goal line less. He ran the ball just as much down there, % wise.And any potential for fewer rushing TDs is greatly offset by the potential for an increase in passing TDs. 27 passing TDs is a very reasonable number, and would make up for a massive dip in rushing TDs. If rushing TDs stay in the double digits, and the passing TDs hit 27 or so, we are looking at the top QB overall, potentially. The "he can't do that again, he just can't" argument is lazy. The Pathers ran the same goal line play all year, and Cam kept it 50% of the time (vs. handing off) all year. That won't change.

The second half decline doesn't concern you at all?

 

[LHUCKS]

Newtons rushing TDs dropped becuase the Panthers were at the goal line less. He ran the ball just as much down there, % wise.And any potential for fewer rushing TDs is greatly offset by the potential for an increase in passing TDs. 27 passing TDs is a very reasonable number, and would make up for a massive dip in rushing TDs. If rushing TDs stay in the double digits, and the passing TDs hit 27 or so, we are looking at the top QB overall, potentially. The "he can't do that again, he just can't" argument is lazy. The Pathers ran the same goal line play all year, and Cam kept it 50% of the time (vs. handing off) all year. That won't change.

Throw out the first month of the season and Cam's passing numbers would project out to 3500/21. Say what you want about the fact they ran the same play at the goal line but two things will happen. One, teams will try to take that play away and force them to do something else, and two, if the team is smart they won't keep getting their franchise QB running the ball and run the risk of injury exposure. Certainly I can't prove it, but I don't think that same play will work as much and they will go to Plan B for both of those reasons.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

the bottom line if you're picking #5 is that if you want either Brady or Stafford, you have to draft him here. Thus, value, at least vis-a-vis those two guys and this pick, is irrelevant.

I generally disagree with picking a QB early, particularly one like Brady that is coming off a career stat year and one whom I've projected for a lesser year.Easily my least popular overvalued play, so we'll see if I'm wrong and everybody else is right. For the record I likely take Chris Johnson there.

I'm usually anti-QB early too but after (in no particular order) Rodgers, Calvin, Foster, Rice, McCoy, Chris Johnson and McFadden I can't find anyone else that I consider worth a first rounder ahead of Brady and Brees. Then Stafford, Cam, and the two elite tight ends.

 

[LHUCKS]

the bottom line if you're picking #5 is that if you want either Brady or Stafford, you have to draft him here. Thus, value, at least vis-a-vis those two guys and this pick, is irrelevant.

I generally disagree with picking a QB early, particularly one like Brady that is coming off a career stat year and one whom I've projected for a lesser year.Easily my least popular overvalued play, so we'll see if I'm wrong and everybody else is right. For the record I likely take Chris Johnson there.

I'm usually anti-QB early too but after (in no particular order) Rodgers, Calvin, Foster, Rice, McCoy, Chris Johnson and McFadden I can't find anyone else that I consider worth a first rounder ahead of Brady and Brees.

I'm much more on board with this than Brady at #5.

 

[Concept Coop]

Throw out the first month of the season and Cam's passing numbers would project out to 3500/21. Say what you want about the fact they ran the same play at the goal line but two things will happen. One, teams will try to take that play away and force them to do something else, and two, if the team is smart they won't keep getting their franchise QB running the ball and run the risk of injury exposure. Certainly I can't prove it, but I don't think that same play will work as much and they will go to Plan B for both of those reasons.

Why are we throwing it out? It happened? And to be clear what "it" is: Back to back 400 yard games to start his career, in a lockout shortened off season. Part of the best rookie season ever.I implore you to watch Cam's goal line TD runs and tell me where he was at risk. The linebaker sized Newton, more often than not, simly fell into the back of his offensive line. There is more risk for injury every time he drops back to pass.Newton is making major strides in his first full offseason, and the team is going to trust him more. They won't need to play small ball as much as they did over the 2nd half of the season.Edit to add: Newton was great at getting out of bounds, or sliding as he needed to. We all laughed and shook our heads when he claimed to be more than just a football player to the team that drafted him - but he has long been aware of his importance to the franchise and the need for him to stay healhty.

 

[Concept Coop]

The second half decline doesn't concern you at all?

No. His scoring average, per game, over the 2nd half of the season, is still on par with the 3 year average of Brady, Brees, and Rodgers. If that is what I am worried about - worst case scenario - I'll take it.

 

[David Yudkin]

Throw out the first month of the season and Cam's passing numbers would project out to 3500/21. Say what you want about the fact they ran the same play at the goal line but two things will happen. One, teams will try to take that play away and force them to do something else, and two, if the team is smart they won't keep getting their franchise QB running the ball and run the risk of injury exposure. Certainly I can't prove it, but I don't think that same play will work as much and they will go to Plan B for both of those reasons.

Why are we throwing it out? It happened? And to be clear what "it" is: Back to back 400 yard games to start his career, in a lockout shortened off season. Part of the best rookie season ever.I implore you to watch Cam's goal line TD runs and tell me where he was at risk. The linebaker sized Newton, more often than not, simly fell into the back of his offensive line. There is more risk for injury every time he drops back to pass.Newton is making major strides in his first full offseason, and the team is going to trust him more. They won't need to play small ball as much as they did over the 2nd half of the season.

Newton's fantasy ppg dropped in each 4 games of the season. 30.4 to 27.3 to 26 to 24.1. Teams adjusted. They will continue to adjust. As been hashed out a million times, teams had little time to prepare and Cam caught several opponents by surpise ealry on that for the most part didn't happen again the rest of the year (passing wise). With tape and a full camp to prepare for him better, I don't think he will have two 400 yard passing games to start the season again.It would not shock me if he lost half his rushing TDs this year while throwing for fewer TD. I can see him with 3500 yards passing and just south of 30 total TD. That's still a stong season, but obviously a drop off from last year.As an example, Anquan Boldin came out of the gate and had a 10-217-2 game to start his career. He's never had another 200 yard game since and IIRC only 2 or 3 within 50 yards of that.

 

[pantherclub]

the bottom line if you're picking #5 is that if you want either Brady or Stafford, you have to draft him here. Thus, value, at least vis-a-vis those two guys and this pick, is irrelevant.

I generally disagree with picking a QB early, particularly one like Brady that is coming off a career stat year and one whom I've projected for a lesser year.Easily my least popular overvalued play, so we'll see if I'm wrong and everybody else is right. For the record I likely take Chris Johnson there.

You got burned bad last year doing this exact thing.

 

[LHUCKS]

Throw out the first month of the season and Cam's passing numbers would project out to 3500/21. Say what you want about the fact they ran the same play at the goal line but two things will happen. One, teams will try to take that play away and force them to do something else, and two, if the team is smart they won't keep getting their franchise QB running the ball and run the risk of injury exposure. Certainly I can't prove it, but I don't think that same play will work as much and they will go to Plan B for both of those reasons.

Why are we throwing it out? It happened? And to be clear what "it" is: Back to back 400 yard games to start his career, in a lockout shortened off season. Part of the best rookie season ever.I implore you to watch Cam's goal line TD runs and tell me where he was at risk. The linebaker sized Newton, more often than not, simly fell into the back of his offensive line. There is more risk for injury every time he drops back to pass.Newton is making major strides in his first full offseason, and the team is going to trust him more. They won't need to play small ball as much as they did over the 2nd half of the season.

Newton's fantasy ppg dropped in each 4 games of the season. 30.4 to 27.3 to 26 to 24.1. Teams adjusted. They will continue to adjust. As been hashed out a million times, teams had little time to prepare and Cam caught several opponents by surpise ealry on that for the most part didn't happen again the rest of the year (passing wise). With tape and a full camp to prepare for him better, I don't think he will have two 400 yard passing games to start the season again.It would not shock me if he lost half his rushing TDs this year while throwing for fewer TD. I can see him with 3500 yards passing and just south of 30 total TD. That's still a stong season, but obviously a drop off from last year.

Yudkin is dead-on with Newton.

 

[Gr00vus]

McFadden can't take a hit.Four years in the league and he's stayed healthy...never?You can't be the best RB in football if you can't stay on the field.

Plus I don't think he's that great running inside or getting tough yards.

 

[doowain]

3 pages of LHucks posts You can tell the noobs who think they are learning something from him.Only thing I'm learning is to draft everyone he is saying is overvalued. Can someone post a link to when LHucks has been right?

150 posts and 3300 views in less than 20 hours...with a strategy thread.I challenge you to find that kind of production somewhere else, sport.

Numbers are a bit skewed. First, take out your 85 posts (between you and your aliases). Then take out the 40 posts of people that just come in to bash you.Your threads are a lot like watching real-life tragedies unfold on TV. You aren't there for entertainment or to learn. We, as humans, are inherently drawn to train wrecks. Between your posts like this and Otis' yearly hawkscreech list, we have our OJ White Bronco chase and Columbine all wrapped up into one.

 

[Banger]

Brady has done it before Brees has not,

Done what?

NE went out and got more WR weapons

Yes they went out and got 2 new WR's. But thats after they spent 2 picks on O-line men and another 2 on RB's in 2011. And then spent nearly all their draft picks in 2012 on Defense. WR seems like an afterthought to me, it's not like Lloyd and Gaffney are highly coveted WR's. Perhaps a little underrated in the world of the NFL, but it's not like they went out and signed Vincent Jackson or anything. Definite upgrade over Branch, but I don't see it as a reason to think they'll be even more pass oriented this year. They already throw 5 to 10% more than average in any given situation. Their pass ratio inside the 10 was 7th highest last year.

and the OC they got was the one when they broke records.

He's also the OC that Brady only put up 3500/24 with in 2006. With Denver QB's put up seasons of 3800/21, and 4300/25. Obviously Brady >>> Orton/Tebow and Pats > Broncos, but it looks more like Brady's 4800/50 is the outlier than the other way around. I have no problem with anyone projecting Brady for 4500-5000 yards. It's the TD's, I just think even with McDaniels, total team rushing TD's would have to drop to in the 5-7 range for Brady to hit that many TD's. For me, both Brees and Brady have some question marks surrounding them this season. But as I answer the questions I'm liking Brees better than Brady.

well Lloyd isn't chopped liver in my mind as he did finish as the #1 overall WR just a couple years ago (again under McDaniels). As far as the passing offense, they were nearly unstoppable last year and they've only added to the potentcy IMO while subtracting from the run game. Their one "weakness" was the deep ball and Lloyd now gives them that dimension which will make the offense that much harder to stop. What I meant by Brees hasn't done it and Brady has was that Brees has never scored close to what he scored last year (was 100+ points greater than his prior best year) while Brady has had a season with better production than he got last year so progression to the mean and all that stuff indicates that Brees is in uncharted waters and may regress a good bit.

 

[butcher boy]

3 pages of LHucks posts You can tell the noobs who think they are learning something from him.Only thing I'm learning is to draft everyone he is saying is overvalued. Can someone post a link to when LHucks has been right?

150 posts and 3300 views in less than 20 hours...with a strategy thread.I challenge you to find that kind of production somewhere else, sport.

People stop in great numbers to look at train wrecks and car accidents too. Just saying...You said earlier that you have Brady projected for 4,600/36. To me, that's good enough to warrant a mid-late first round pick assuming all that's left at RB are question marks.

 

[Concept Coop]

Newton's fantasy ppg dropped in each 4 games of the season. 30.4 to 37.3 to 26 to 24.1. Teams adjusted. They will continue to adjust. As been hashed out a million times, teams had little time to prepare and Cam caught several opponents by surpise ealry on that for the most part didn't happen again the rest of the year (passing wise). With tape and a full camp to prepare for him better, I don't think he will have two 400 yard passing games to start the season again.It would not shock me if he lost half his rushing TDs this year while throwing for fewer TD. I can see him with 3500 yards passing and just south of 30 total TD. That's still a stong season, but obviously a drop off from last year.

Opponent's didn't adjust; the Panthers adjusted. They realized that in order to win games, they needed to slow things down. Newton threw fewer interceptions, and the Panthers started winning games. If opponents "caught on" why did Cam throw fewer Ints, as many TDs, and win more games? Seems like the opposite of "catching on" to me. If I am playing the Panthers, I would much rather Cam throw for 400 and win, then 250 and lose. Why wouldn't it shock you for him to lose half of his rushing TDs? Everyone is scared of the major number he provided as a rookie - an NFL record - but don't seem to give any logic reason for them to drop. He is not in harms way, and the Panthers showed no signs of using him differently at the goal line.

 

[Concept Coop]

Throw out the first month of the season and Cam's passing numbers would project out to 3500/21. Say what you want about the fact they ran the same play at the goal line but two things will happen. One, teams will try to take that play away and force them to do something else, and two, if the team is smart they won't keep getting their franchise QB running the ball and run the risk of injury exposure. Certainly I can't prove it, but I don't think that same play will work as much and they will go to Plan B for both of those reasons.

Why are we throwing it out? It happened? And to be clear what "it" is: Back to back 400 yard games to start his career, in a lockout shortened off season. Part of the best rookie season ever.I implore you to watch Cam's goal line TD runs and tell me where he was at risk. The linebaker sized Newton, more often than not, simly fell into the back of his offensive line. There is more risk for injury every time he drops back to pass.Newton is making major strides in his first full offseason, and the team is going to trust him more. They won't need to play small ball as much as they did over the 2nd half of the season.

Newton's fantasy ppg dropped in each 4 games of the season. 30.4 to 27.3 to 26 to 24.1. Teams adjusted. They will continue to adjust. As been hashed out a million times, teams had little time to prepare and Cam caught several opponents by surpise ealry on that for the most part didn't happen again the rest of the year (passing wise). With tape and a full camp to prepare for him better, I don't think he will have two 400 yard passing games to start the season again.It would not shock me if he lost half his rushing TDs this year while throwing for fewer TD. I can see him with 3500 yards passing and just south of 30 total TD. That's still a stong season, but obviously a drop off from last year.

Yudkin is dead-on with Newton.

I respect Yudkin very much, but he's not dead-on here. At least, he hasn't provided much reasoning.Newton wasn't at increased risk for injury, as Yudkin stated - the Panthers know this. Opponents didn't adjust and slow Cam down, as Yudkin stated. The Panthers got fewer goal line carries over the 2nd half of the season - that is why Cam's PPG number dipped so much. That will even out.

 

[Banger]

Newton's fantasy ppg dropped in each 4 games of the season. 30.4 to 37.3 to 26 to 24.1. Teams adjusted. They will continue to adjust. As been hashed out a million times, teams had little time to prepare and Cam caught several opponents by surpise ealry on that for the most part didn't happen again the rest of the year (passing wise). With tape and a full camp to prepare for him better, I don't think he will have two 400 yard passing games to start the season again.It would not shock me if he lost half his rushing TDs this year while throwing for fewer TD. I can see him with 3500 yards passing and just south of 30 total TD. That's still a stong season, but obviously a drop off from last year.

Opponent's didn't adjust; the Panthers adjusted. They realized that in order to win games, they needed to slow things down. Newton threw fewer interceptions, and the Panthers started winning games. If opponents "caught on" why did Cam throw fewer Ints, as many TDs, and win more games? Seems like the opposite of "catching on" to me. If I am playing the Panthers, I would much rather Cam throw for 400 and win, then 250 and lose. Why wouldn't it shock you for him to lose half of his rushing TDs? Everyone is scared of the major number he provided as a rookie - an NFL record - but don't seem to give any logic reason for them to drop. He is not in harms way, and the Panthers showed no signs of using him differently at the goal line.

14 rush TDs is a crazy amount of TDs....they are the most difficult to predict and while he won't get 0, they are extremely variable. Look at Vick...2 years ago he had 9 TDs, last year he had 1. To count on double digit TDs is a big stretch IMO.

 

[David Yudkin]

Newton's fantasy ppg dropped in each 4 games of the season. 30.4 to 37.3 to 26 to 24.1. Teams adjusted. They will continue to adjust. As been hashed out a million times, teams had little time to prepare and Cam caught several opponents by surpise ealry on that for the most part didn't happen again the rest of the year (passing wise). With tape and a full camp to prepare for him better, I don't think he will have two 400 yard passing games to start the season again.It would not shock me if he lost half his rushing TDs this year while throwing for fewer TD. I can see him with 3500 yards passing and just south of 30 total TD. That's still a stong season, but obviously a drop off from last year.

Opponent's didn't adjust; the Panthers adjusted. They realized that in order to win games, they needed to slow things down. Newton threw fewer interceptions, and the Panthers started winning games. If opponents "caught on" why did Cam throw fewer Ints, as many TDs, and win more games? Seems like the opposite of "catching on" to me. If I am playing the Panthers, I would much rather Cam throw for 400 and win, then 250 and lose. Why wouldn't it shock you for him to lose half of his rushing TDs? Everyone is scared of the major number he provided as a rookie - an NFL record - but don't seem to give any logic reason for them to drop. He is not in harms way, and the Panthers showed no signs of using him differently at the goal line.

I already answered this. Defenses will look for that play, figure out a way to stop it by selling their soul to the devil and overplaying it, and/or making Cam take a pounding when he runs it.ANother factor is that they may not get that may opportunities in the same spot again this year. There are a lot of variables at play here.

 

[David Yudkin]

Throw out the first month of the season and Cam's passing numbers would project out to 3500/21. Say what you want about the fact they ran the same play at the goal line but two things will happen. One, teams will try to take that play away and force them to do something else, and two, if the team is smart they won't keep getting their franchise QB running the ball and run the risk of injury exposure. Certainly I can't prove it, but I don't think that same play will work as much and they will go to Plan B for both of those reasons.

Why are we throwing it out? It happened? And to be clear what "it" is: Back to back 400 yard games to start his career, in a lockout shortened off season. Part of the best rookie season ever.I implore you to watch Cam's goal line TD runs and tell me where he was at risk. The linebaker sized Newton, more often than not, simly fell into the back of his offensive line. There is more risk for injury every time he drops back to pass.Newton is making major strides in his first full offseason, and the team is going to trust him more. They won't need to play small ball as much as they did over the 2nd half of the season.

Newton's fantasy ppg dropped in each 4 games of the season. 30.4 to 27.3 to 26 to 24.1. Teams adjusted. They will continue to adjust. As been hashed out a million times, teams had little time to prepare and Cam caught several opponents by surpise ealry on that for the most part didn't happen again the rest of the year (passing wise). With tape and a full camp to prepare for him better, I don't think he will have two 400 yard passing games to start the season again.It would not shock me if he lost half his rushing TDs this year while throwing for fewer TD. I can see him with 3500 yards passing and just south of 30 total TD. That's still a stong season, but obviously a drop off from last year.

Yudkin is dead-on with Newton.

I respect Yudkin very much, but he's not dead-on here. At least, he hasn't provided much reasoning.Newton wasn't at increased risk for injury, as Yudkin stated - the Panthers know this. Opponents didn't adjust and slow Cam down, as Yudkin stated. The Panthers got fewer goal line carries over the 2nd half of the season - that is why Cam's PPG number dipped so much. That will even out.

I am not claiming to be an expert here and am only providing my opinion like everyone else. I call em like I see em, and people can agree or disagree.

 

[Concept Coop]

I am not claiming to be an expert here and am only providing my opinion like everyone else. I call em like I see em, and people can agree or disagree.

I absolutely respect you as an expert; don't sell yourself short.My apologies if I came off the wrong way. I didn't mean to claim my opinion was anything more than just that.

 

[Tanner9919]

Since LHUCKS had some concerns about Brady, I figured that I would throw some stuff out there.

Pats turnover differential in Games 1-8 last year: Even. Pats turnover differential in Games 9-16: +17. People ask why Brady may have had fewer passing attempts but more fantasy points in the latter half of the season, there's your answer. The Pats got the ball a ton and had better field position. Drives were shorter, so passes were not as big a requirement. And the difference in attempts was marginal. First 8 games: 321, last 8 games: 290. Oh, did I mention the Pats scored 291 points in the second half of the season (36.4 ppg)?

Brady also added 3 rushing TD at the end of the season for a total of 22 TD in the final 8 games.

One reason the Pats passed so much was that for the most part the defense was horrible. Even that might be too kind. Yes, they added some potentially decent rookies, but it's pretty much the same crew that looked lost last year and couldn't get off the field or stop the pass.

The running game this year is pretty much unproven. BJGE is gone and they did not really add anyone noteworthy. While Vereen and Ridley may be quicker, we have no idea how they will do. My initial case is inconsisently . . . and on same games ineffectively.

Instead of adding a real RB threat, the Pats instead added Lloyd, Gaffney, and Stallworth to give Brady even more weapons to throw to. None of this screams to me that the Pats will be run centric or they will rely on the pass less this year.

They also added Josh McDaniels, he of the 2007 season with 50 passes and a lethal air attack before it became common to throw the ball all over the yard. Yes, McDaniels uses running backs . . . to catch screens. And we saw how hard the Pats tried to score and score and score back then.

So heading into 2012, Brady now has elite TEs to throw two, a better WR corps, and guys now coming out of the backfield to catch the football.

Some will point to an (on paper) tough schedule against the pass this year. I agree, if in fact those oppoents really are tougher, Brady will see a drop off in production in those games. Let's also say he faces 8 Top pass defenses (like he did in 2009 or the 9 he faced in 2010). I checked and in the 29 games since 2007 where he faced Top 10 defenses, Brady averaged 253 yards and 2.25 TD per game. For argument's sake, let's say he repeats that perfromance level against those 8 Top 10 defenses. That would mean in 8 games he would total 2024/18.

Last year, against non-Top 10 defenses, Brady averaged 345/2.8 per game. While people may say that's insanely high, I ask why? The Pats have shown that they will commit to the pass and run up the score. Common sense says that the Pats should sit Brady with a 50 point lead . . . but they haven't ever done that. For whatever reason, BB seems inclined to keep the ball in the air and rack up the points. Again, for argument's sake, let's use the same numbers against not Top 10 defenses this year. That would be 2760/23.

Again, humor me by adding those two together. I get 4784/41. Now, mind you, that included factoring in having BJGE, but did not include having McDaniels, Lloyd, Gaffney, or Stallworth. IMO, I would say all of that leads me to think Brady would be north of those numbers . . . and that already accounts for playing 8 Top 10 defenses into the equation (based on how he's done recently against top passing defenses).

The only fly in the ointmenthere is if the Pats have long term OL injuries or issues. I have been following this situation. mankins is back in camp and is said to be a beast. He spent his entire rehab working on his upper body and is now a mountain man and stronger than ever. For now, he has slowed some in his manual dexterity and range, but front to back he is fine and added a ton of muscle. Koppen is back and doing well. Vollmer is coming back this week and shows signs of being able to contribute right away, although back injuries are a bit hard to predict as to when they will flare up and when they won't. From the sound of it, Waters is expected back right before the season starts. He didn't show up uto camp until 9/4 last year, at this stage I would consider it a surprise if he didn't come back. From what I have heard/seen, Solder has been holding his own, and paired with Mankins should be more than adequate and will potentially minimize the loss of Matt Light. The only bad thing I have seen about the OL is that Marcus Cannon has been overmatched trying to play RT and they have been trying to coach him up and work on his technique. It sounds like he is getting overmatched by big D-lineman and pushed around a lot. Dan Connolly has been playing the role of super sub and is not a liability no matter where he lines up. In the main, the Pats are expecting a full OL with some depth to be ready by Opening Day.

All in all, I don't see anything not to like about the Pats passing game this year. Some people have suggested that since Brady hit 35 suddenly he will be frail, lose his mojo, not have as much on the ball, will be more apt to get injured, and the like. I would say if there were signs of that I would agree, but he had a pretty decent year at 34.

great post David..you've neatly put everything into perspective...the bolded are the two glaring IFs heading into the 2012 season - Brady's O-line and the Pats running game, or, perhaps, lack thereof..IMO, a sour running game leads to more QB pressure fron defensive fronts, more hits, more sacks, more chances for guys to tee-off on Brady.Imo, the O-line is the Achilles' heel of this offense..

in each of the past 4-5 years Brady's sack totals have steadily risen.now, is that his fault ( immobile), the o-lines fault, or something else?

yes, he's 35..yes he did exceedingly well last year at age 34, but at some point you become over-the-hill in football terms, i.e., your skills diminish..it happens to every single position, RB/TE/LB/Qb/WR, etc.. with some positions it's much more pronounced than others..maybe it's Brady's time, maybe not.but it's the unknown factor to think about.

Lloyd is a threat on the outside, but Gafney is an also-ran player.he doesn't scare anyone..Stallworth isn't much of a force either..

and are we certain the Josh McDaniels is going to remake the 2007 Pats with this crew? we don't know that..the old saying is never more true: past performance is no guaranee of future results..he didn't light the world on fire in Denver - they rode him out of town on a rail..

people seem to dismiss the Brady's career avg per season,which is approx 3900/28-ish..in that ballpark..

you've shown that Brady scored more fantasy pts during the second half of the season,largely due to incredibly good starting field position as a result of the +17 turnover ratio.so realistically, what are the chances that happens again, they they continually get such great field position, each drive, each game? pretty slim chances,right?so that means less scoring , less TD's if they have to sustain more drives as a result or worse field position, chewing up more clock, having to move the chains more..

one important caveat that people are dismissing is the incredible rushing offenses the Pats face this season..with the Pats defensive ineptitude in stopping the run, how will Brady get on the field vs SF and their terrific running game, or Balt and Ray Rice, Foster and Houston, Tenn and Chris Johnson, Seattle(Lynch), Jville ( MJD/Jennings), etc..

and these opposing defenses are not only good against the pass, they can get after a QB, bigtime..

I think people are just too giddy over the McDaniels hiring, the Pats offense in general, and especially Gronkowski..talk of another 5k season is actually 'off the charts' hype..it's beyond a fevered pitch..it's happened in only two seasons in NFL history, it's not happening in back-to-back seasons..

I'm with LHUCKS on this, Brady throws for something like 4100/30..

and , just to throw it out there, Brady's latest photoshoot has him looking a lot like..gulp..Vanilla Ice..

disclaimer: yes, I'm a Giants fan.

 

[Concept Coop]

I already answered this. Defenses will look for that play, figure out a way to stop it by selling their soul to the devil and overplaying it, and/or making Cam take a pounding when he runs it.ANother factor is that they may not get that may opportunities in the same spot again this year. There are a lot of variables at play here.

How many years did it take for teams to figure out the Nebraska option? Air Force is still running an option and putting up crazy stats - when will teams figure them out?An option play - if you have the players to run it - forces a defense to guess. You can't stop all 3 options that the Panthers have - you can only guess. Teams have been studying this play for years, at least since the Dolphins ran it. It's not something new.By week 4, every team the Panthers played knew what their goal line play was going to be, it didn't matter. An extra year will do nothing to render the play useless.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm with LHUCKS on this, Brady throws for something like 4100/30..

We can all pick a projection and have an opinion, but since Brady got any semblence of receivers, 30 TD went out a long time ago. I know he only had 29 a few years ago, but that was post-ACL surgery and he looked like a deer in the headlights and played terrible in a number of games. Unlike Johnson, Brady's neumbers have been trending up. Again, I see nothing that illustrates the Pats are preparing to go to war with a ground attack this year.

 

[butcher boy]

I'm with LHUCKS on this, Brady throws for something like 4100/30..

LHUCKS is projecting 4,600/36 for Brady.

 

[steveski]

Great discussion here. Convenient for me because I pick 5 in my league and was assuming I'd take Calvin if Rodgers was taken, but I'm seriously considering Brady now.

 

[Zeff]

Throw out the first month of the season and Cam's passing numbers would project out to 3500/21. Say what you want about the fact they ran the same play at the goal line but two things will happen. One, teams will try to take that play away and force them to do something else, and two, if the team is smart they won't keep getting their franchise QB running the ball and run the risk of injury exposure. Certainly I can't prove it, but I don't think that same play will work as much and they will go to Plan B for both of those reasons.

Why are we throwing it out? It happened? And to be clear what "it" is: Back to back 400 yard games to start his career, in a lockout shortened off season. Part of the best rookie season ever.I implore you to watch Cam's goal line TD runs and tell me where he was at risk. The linebaker sized Newton, more often than not, simly fell into the back of his offensive line. There is more risk for injury every time he drops back to pass.Newton is making major strides in his first full offseason, and the team is going to trust him more. They won't need to play small ball as much as they did over the 2nd half of the season.Edit to add: Newton was great at getting out of bounds, or sliding as he needed to. We all laughed and shook our heads when he claimed to be more than just a football player to the team that drafted him - but he has long been aware of his importance to the franchise and the need for him to stay healhty.

As to why we might want to "throw it out," even though, "it happened," that has to do with the repeatability of the act. We don't get paid for what he did in the past, only what he does in the future.Is there reason to believe 400 yard games are somehow less doable now than they were in Cam's past? Yeah. Big time.Cam Newton entered the league raw and untested, and defensive coordinators wisely adopted the "let's see you prove it" stance. As with most newbie QB's, they gameplanned to take away the easy pass and dared him to beat them. What the league soon learned was that A) Cam did indeed have a rocket launcher for an arm, and B) Steve Smith was still able to outrun the secondary. Combine those two things, and a QB doesn't need much savvy to beat defenses early, often, and for big numbers. Cam put up record-setting numbers, and Smitty put up an unimaginably good month and a half.But the league doesn't stand still. Defensive coordinators shrugged, went, "well I'll be damned," and started putting defensive help out there to shut Steve Smith down. After all, it was a great trick, but looked like it might be the only one in Cam's bag. And what do you know...they were right. From about week seven on, Cam was a mediocre producer in the passing game, and Steve Smith was a mediocre producer as a receiver. Neither was exactly BAD, it's just that the new, reliable, week-in, week-out "normal" performance from these guys no longer clicked with the gaudy year-long numbers both guys produced based on the first month and a half.There was, in short, enough evidence to suggest that the league took a major step towards "figuring it out."Is there any reason to assume defensive coordinators will have forgotten this lesson in the offseason? None that I can think of. Is there any reason to assume Cam has figured out how to pick apart a wider variety of defenses? Well, he's a year older, and a year more experienced, but we certainly haven't seen him tested against anything except the Vanilla offerings of preseason football yet. So you absolutely HAVE to go into the season assuming somewhat reduced numbers passing, or you simply didn't learn from watching. How reduced? That's where the art lies. I predict them to reduce a LOT. Do you?As to why the team may consider decreasing Cam's workload near the goalline, it's just a matter of common sense. If they believe he's a franchise QB, at some point you want him to take less damage. This isn't groundbreaking thought. All we have to ask ourselves is this: Is there any evidence the Panthers have chosen to do this?And I'd suggest that, yes, there is. In the person of one Mike Tolbert. This guy is on the short list of the best RB's in the league at doing the #1 thing that made Cam so valuable last season. Bullrushing it in from close to the goal line. Does that automatically mean Cam's rushing numbers go in the toilet? Of course not. But I think it would be highly questionable analysis to assume they didn't bring in a specialist of Tolbert's quality and reputation to a team already bursting with RB's, unless they planned to use him.I'm anticipating HUGE declines in both passing performance and rushing performance out of Cam this season. I do not view him as a top 10 QB...though I feel he may push that value based on the value of the rushing numbers he most certainly WILL still accrue...and will be avoiding him with extreme prejudice in the area where he's currently being drafted.

 

[pantherclub]

I'm with LHUCKS on this, Brady throws for something like 4100/30..

LHUCKS is projecting 4,600/36 for Brady.

Even then you would be insane to pass on him at #5. His strategy is warped.

 

[fightingillini]

I agree with LHUCKS list except Brady, where Yudkin is killing it in this thread. I can't see how you're going to stop the Patriots this year. Welker, Gronkowski, Lloyd, Heranandez, Woodhead out of the backfield, and so on......seriously, how are you going to cover them all? There is going to be one or two mismatches on almost every play. My projection for Brady is 5000/40/13 passing, 100/2 rushing.

Brady value wise is well worth a pick in the mid-late first round. The real question is picking a QB in the first round in a start 1QB league. How will the rest of your team look? The RB pool after the big three is shallow and has a lot of question marks, while the WR pool is pretty deep. Taking Brady (or Rodgers or Brees) in the 1st round pretty much handcuffs you in that you almost have to take 2RBs in the next 3 rounds, leaving your WRs to be less than desired, especially if you have to start 3WRs, like many leagues do.

So whether Brady is a good choice at 5 overall depends on the QB scoring and the number of teams. I think drafting Brady at 5 or 6 overall is fine in leagues with 10 or fewer teams and/or leagues with very friendly QB scoring. In a 12 teamer or more, it's a little more risky. Last night I drafted Brady in the 1.6 slot in a 12 team PPR league with QB friendly scoring (1pt per 20 yards passing and 5 pts per TD pass), and had to take 2 RBs with my next picks to ensure 2 decent starters......I got Charles and Bradshaw, not bad but both have issues. And my 1st WR is Colston.....yuck. So we'll see if it works.

But IMO, there are only a small amount of truly elite fantasy players......Foster, Rice, McCoy, Calvin, Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Graham and Gronkowski. All these players have 1st round value (and you can get Graham and Gronkowski in the early 2nd in many drafts). It's real nice to have one of these guys to count on.

 

[Concept Coop]

As to why we might want to "throw it out," even though, "it happened," that has to do with the repeatability of the act. We don't get paid for what he did in the past, only what he does in the future.Is there reason to believe 400 yard games are somehow less doable now than they were in Cam's past? Yeah. Big time.Cam Newton entered the league raw and untested, and defensive coordinators wisely adopted the "let's see you prove it" stance. As with most newbie QB's, they gameplanned to take away the easy pass and dared him to beat them. What the league soon learned was that A) Cam did indeed have a rocket launcher for an arm, and B) Steve Smith was still able to outrun the secondary. Combine those two things, and a QB doesn't need much savvy to beat defenses early, often, and for big numbers. Cam put up record-setting numbers, and Smitty put up an unimaginably good month and a half.But the league doesn't stand still. Defensive coordinators shrugged, went, "well I'll be damned," and started putting defensive help out there to shut Steve Smith down. After all, it was a great trick, but looked like it might be the only one in Cam's bag. And what do you know...they were right. From about week seven on, Cam was a mediocre producer in the passing game, and Steve Smith was a mediocre producer as a receiver. Neither was exactly BAD, it's just that the new, reliable, week-in, week-out "normal" performance from these guys no longer clicked with the gaudy year-long numbers both guys produced based on the first month and a half.There was, in short, enough evidence to suggest that the league took a major step towards "figuring it out."Is there any reason to assume defensive coordinators will have forgotten this lesson in the offseason? None that I can think of. Is there any reason to assume Cam has figured out how to pick apart a wider variety of defenses? Well, he's a year older, and a year more experienced, but we certainly haven't seen him tested against anything except the Vanilla offerings of preseason football yet. So you absolutely HAVE to go into the season assuming somewhat reduced numbers passing, or you simply didn't learn from watching. How reduced? That's where the art lies. I predict them to reduce a LOT. Do you?As to why the team may consider decreasing Cam's workload near the goalline, it's just a matter of common sense. If they believe he's a franchise QB, at some point you want him to take less damage. This isn't groundbreaking thought. All we have to ask ourselves is this: Is there any evidence the Panthers have chosen to do this?And I'd suggest that, yes, there is. In the person of one Mike Tolbert. This guy is on the short list of the best RB's in the league at doing the #1 thing that made Cam so valuable last season. Bullrushing it in from close to the goal line. Does that automatically mean Cam's rushing numbers go in the toilet? Of course not. But I think it would be highly questionable analysis to assume they didn't bring in a specialist of Tolbert's quality and reputation to a team already bursting with RB's, unless they planned to use him.I'm anticipating HUGE declines in both passing performance and rushing performance out of Cam this season. I do not view him as a top 10 QB...though I feel he may push that value based on the value of the rushing numbers he most certainly WILL still accrue...and will be avoiding him with extreme prejudice in the area where he's currently being drafted.

He did repeat 400 yards...the very next game. It is a display of his ability, at the very least. I don't expect 800 yards going into week 3, but I don't expect the Panthers to keep the training-wheels on, either. Expecting his passing numbers to take a HUGE decline is very curious to me. The team is getting better, and Newton is getting better. Usually numbers go improve as a player and team get better. And again - teams did not adjust to Cam. I don't know why you say that. They Panthers won more games, and Newton threw fewer interceptions, while maintaining his TD pace. Opposing teams don't care about his fantasy points, they want to win. Opposing teams won at a much lower rate over the 2nd half of the season. The Tolber aspect will simply need to play itself out. I'll ask this, however: If the Panthers wanted to run a traditional goal line offense, why did they need Tolbert? Is Stewart not plenty capable? I think Tolbert was brought in to be a fullback. Newton had the best rookie season ever and has continued to surpass any reasonable expectation, at every level of his career. Yet, we are still going to bet against him, and to this degree? Newton's season - in which he threw ONLY 21 TDs - was better than the 3 year average of ANY QB in the league today. Think about that. He could have a down year, and and still match the career average of Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees. Really think about that. There is so much margin for error, as well as potential for record VBD.

 

[David Yudkin]

Newton had the best rookie season ever and has continued to surpass any reasonable expectation, at every level of his career. Yet, we are still going to bet against him, and to this degree? Newton's season - in which he threw ONLY 21 TDs - was better than the 3 year average of ANY QB in the league today. Think about that. He could have a down year, and and still match the career average of Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees. Really think about that. There is so much margin for error, as well as potential for record VBD.

Ummm . . . I am not following. Lot's have guys in the league today have averaged 21 passing TDs for 3 years. What am I missing?

 

[Modog814]

It doesn't have to go up . . . but it doesn't have to go way down either. If any team has mastered the dump off pass, it's the Patriots. I already reviewed the OL situation, so there really is no need to recap again here.

The Pats have an arsenal of 1-3 step passes, WR screens, Welker dump offs, and short routes that teams haven't been able to stop for years. Last year, the TEs gave them more options for seam routes and let Welker have some deeper routes. Lloyd should also take coverage away from everyone else.

To your point, sure, if any team can get constant pressure on any QB without having to blitz all the time, any QB may have some trouble. Not every team is the Giants.

In Brady's last 3 healthy years, (07, 10, 11), he's accounted for 131 passing and rushing TD combined. That's a smidge under 44 on average. Even if we ignore 2007, that's still an average of 39.5 TD the other 2 years. IMO, pushing that up to 45 is not only reasonable, I would say probably. I won't fight anyone that says adding another 5 on top of that might be pushing it.

The bolded is where I think we really just disagree. I don't doubt for a second that Brady is capable of putting up 5000/50, or 4500/45 or 6000/60 as I recall you saying you'd not be surprised to see him do in another thread. I wouldn't be shocked to see it happen. I just don't expect to see it happen, and anyone drafting him with those expectations I think are really setting themselves up for disappointment. I mean, barring injury I can't see him being lower that top 5 QB even in an "off" year, with top 3 being far more likely. So yes, it's hard to get those numbers and be disappointed. We saw passing yardage increase 4000 yards last year, the Saints, Packers and Pats account for 3000 of the increase. All the while passing TD's actually decreased (6 total) and pass attempts remained pretty flat (about 5 additional attempts per team). I just can't fathom an additional increase in passing for these 3 teams and a decrease is much more likely. I'm not opposed to drafting Brady, Brees or Rodgers in the first round, I just doubt they'll be on any of my teams because I just have different (and imo more realistic) expectations of their upcoming season. Passing will continue to trend upwards as a whole, while I think the elite QB's regress a bit off their insane season last year. This narrows the gap and makes me lean toward taking a RB instead.

 

[pantherclub]

Newton had the best rookie season ever and has continued to surpass any reasonable expectation, at every level of his career. Yet, we are still going to bet against him, and to this degree? Newton's season - in which he threw ONLY 21 TDs - was better than the 3 year average of ANY QB in the league today. Think about that. He could have a down year, and and still match the career average of Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees. Really think about that. There is so much margin for error, as well as potential for record VBD.

Ummm . . . I am not following. Lot's have guys in the league today have averaged 21 passing TDs for 3 years. What am I missing?

I think he is saying that Newton had the best rookie season ever and he only threw 21 tds and that number will surely go up.As to Newton from a diehard Panther fan, I like him a lot although the rushing td's will go down I think his yardage will go up. I think he is a solid 2nd round pick. They will be involved in a lot of shoot outs again this year.

 

[Modog814]

Newtons rushing TDs dropped becuase the Panthers were at the goal line less. He ran the ball just as much down there, % wise.And any potential for fewer rushing TDs is greatly offset by the potential for an increase in passing TDs. 27 passing TDs is a very reasonable number, and would make up for a massive dip in rushing TDs. If rushing TDs stay in the double digits, and the passing TDs hit 27 or so, we are looking at the top QB overall, potentially. The "he can't do that again, he just can't" argument is lazy. The Pathers ran the same goal line play all year, and Cam kept it 50% of the time (vs. handing off) all year. That won't change.

This just isn't true. I've already posted about this. His run % inside the 10 decreased in the 2nd half of the season, and it wasn't offset by increased passing TD's.

 

[Concept Coop]

Newton had the best rookie season ever and has continued to surpass any reasonable expectation, at every level of his career. Yet, we are still going to bet against him, and to this degree? Newton's season - in which he threw ONLY 21 TDs - was better than the 3 year average of ANY QB in the league today. Think about that. He could have a down year, and and still match the career average of Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees. Really think about that. There is so much margin for error, as well as potential for record VBD.

Ummm . . . I am not following. Lot's have guys in the league today have averaged 21 passing TDs for 3 years. What am I missing?

Players get better, typically, as their careers progress. When players get better, typically, their numbers reflect that. Especially given the circumstances of last off season - it is logical, in my opinion, to expect improvement in his passing numbers. As for me pointing out that he provided MASSIVE VBD while only throwing 21 TDs - it shows how high his potential is. That number can easily increase, providing stability, in the case that his rushing TDs dip, and massive potential for improvement, if they don't.

 

[pantherclub]

It doesn't have to go up . . . but it doesn't have to go way down either. If any team has mastered the dump off pass, it's the Patriots. I already reviewed the OL situation, so there really is no need to recap again here.

The Pats have an arsenal of 1-3 step passes, WR screens, Welker dump offs, and short routes that teams haven't been able to stop for years. Last year, the TEs gave them more options for seam routes and let Welker have some deeper routes. Lloyd should also take coverage away from everyone else.

To your point, sure, if any team can get constant pressure on any QB without having to blitz all the time, any QB may have some trouble. Not every team is the Giants.

In Brady's last 3 healthy years, (07, 10, 11), he's accounted for 131 passing and rushing TD combined. That's a smidge under 44 on average. Even if we ignore 2007, that's still an average of 39.5 TD the other 2 years. IMO, pushing that up to 45 is not only reasonable, I would say probably. I won't fight anyone that says adding another 5 on top of that might be pushing it.

The bolded is where I think we really just disagree. I don't doubt for a second that Brady is capable of putting up 5000/50, or 4500/45 or 6000/60 as I recall you saying you'd not be surprised to see him do in another thread. I wouldn't be shocked to see it happen. I just don't expect to see it happen, and anyone drafting him with those expectations I think are really setting themselves up for disappointment. I mean, barring injury I can't see him being lower that top 5 QB even in an "off" year, with top 3 being far more likely. So yes, it's hard to get those numbers and be disappointed. We saw passing yardage increase 4000 yards last year, the Saints, Packers and Pats account for 3000 of the increase. All the while passing TD's actually decreased (6 total) and pass attempts remained pretty flat (about 5 additional attempts per team). I just can't fathom an additional increase in passing for these 3 teams and a decrease is much more likely. I'm not opposed to drafting Brady, Brees or Rodgers in the first round, I just doubt they'll be on any of my teams because I just have different (and imo more realistic) expectations of their upcoming season. Passing will continue to trend upwards as a whole, while I think the elite QB's regress a bit off their insane season last year. This narrows the gap and makes me lean toward taking a RB instead.

So at pick 5 what RB's look better to you?

 

[butcher boy]

I'm with LHUCKS on this, Brady throws for something like 4100/30..

LHUCKS is projecting 4,600/36 for Brady.

Even then you would be insane to pass on him at #5. His strategy is warped.

Exactly, he explains why you shouldnt draft him in the first round, then ends it saying he's projecting an awesome year for him.

 

[Concept Coop]

Newtons rushing TDs dropped becuase the Panthers were at the goal line less. He ran the ball just as much down there, % wise.

And any potential for fewer rushing TDs is greatly offset by the potential for an increase in passing TDs.

27 passing TDs is a very reasonable number, and would make up for a massive dip in rushing TDs. If rushing TDs stay in the double digits, and the passing TDs hit 27 or so, we are looking at the top QB overall, potentially.

The "he can't do that again, he just can't" argument is lazy. The Pathers ran the same goal line play all year, and Cam kept it 50% of the time (vs. handing off) all year. That won't change.

This just isn't true. I've already posted about this. His run % inside the 10 decreased in the 2nd half of the season, and it wasn't offset by increased passing TD's.

It is true, and you're wrong. Newton ran the ball on 50% of the goal line touches over the first 8 games, and the last 8 games. It only decreased because the Panthers were on the goal line less. That will even out.

 

[pantherclub]

I'm with LHUCKS on this, Brady throws for something like 4100/30..

LHUCKS is projecting 4,600/36 for Brady.

Even then you would be insane to pass on him at #5. His strategy is warped.

Exactly, he explains why you shouldnt draft him in the first round, then ends it saying he's projecting an awesome year for him.

and he would take CJ over him for some insane reason. Not too mention he did the exact same thing last year and his team was horrible.

 

[Zeff]

He did repeat 400 yards...the very next game.

Not quite sure what you're saying here. The defensive adjustment clearly occurred a little more than a month into the season. After which, Newton never approached those yardage numbers again.I'm not saying he didn't hit them. He literally didn't approach them. He had a couple more games in the high 200's, but even those were extreme outliers.He has some bigtime adjusting to do. You're assuming "he's getting better." I'll wait and see. I don't think that's the case.

 

[Modog814]

Throw out the first month of the season and Cam's passing numbers would project out to 3500/21. Say what you want about the fact they ran the same play at the goal line but two things will happen. One, teams will try to take that play away and force them to do something else, and two, if the team is smart they won't keep getting their franchise QB running the ball and run the risk of injury exposure. Certainly I can't prove it, but I don't think that same play will work as much and they will go to Plan B for both of those reasons.

Why are we throwing it out? It happened? And to be clear what "it" is: Back to back 400 yard games to start his career, in a lockout shortened off season. Part of the best rookie season ever.I implore you to watch Cam's goal line TD runs and tell me where he was at risk. The linebaker sized Newton, more often than not, simly fell into the back of his offensive line. There is more risk for injury every time he drops back to pass.Newton is making major strides in his first full offseason, and the team is going to trust him more. They won't need to play small ball as much as they did over the 2nd half of the season.

Newton's fantasy ppg dropped in each 4 games of the season. 30.4 to 27.3 to 26 to 24.1. Teams adjusted. They will continue to adjust. As been hashed out a million times, teams had little time to prepare and Cam caught several opponents by surpise ealry on that for the most part didn't happen again the rest of the year (passing wise). With tape and a full camp to prepare for him better, I don't think he will have two 400 yard passing games to start the season again.It would not shock me if he lost half his rushing TDs this year while throwing for fewer TD. I can see him with 3500 yards passing and just south of 30 total TD. That's still a stong season, but obviously a drop off from last year.As an example, Anquan Boldin came out of the gate and had a 10-217-2 game to start his career. He's never had another 200 yard game since and IIRC only 2 or 3 within 50 yards of that.

Newtons first 2 opponents basically sold out to stop the run and dared Newton to beat him with his arm. He showed he was capable of doing it, so teams adjusted.

 

[Zeff]

Newtons rushing TDs dropped becuase the Panthers were at the goal line less. He ran the ball just as much down there, % wise.

And any potential for fewer rushing TDs is greatly offset by the potential for an increase in passing TDs.

27 passing TDs is a very reasonable number, and would make up for a massive dip in rushing TDs. If rushing TDs stay in the double digits, and the passing TDs hit 27 or so, we are looking at the top QB overall, potentially.

The "he can't do that again, he just can't" argument is lazy. The Pathers ran the same goal line play all year, and Cam kept it 50% of the time (vs. handing off) all year. That won't change.

This just isn't true. I've already posted about this. His run % inside the 10 decreased in the 2nd half of the season, and it wasn't offset by increased passing TD's.

It is true, and you're wrong. Newton ran the ball on 50% of the goal line touches over the first 8 games, and the last 8 games. It only decreased because the Panthers were on the goal line less. That will even out.

But IS there reason to assume "that will even out?" Getting to the goal line is a function of an offense that moves the ball down the field reliably. What I saw was a league full of defenses that figured out how to stop a simplistic offense from getting down the field with as much success, and I didn't see the offense adapt to that.I also...as I already mentioned...see very good reason to believe Cam will see a much smaller share of the goalline carries the team does get. So in short, I'm seeing him getting a much smaller piece of a much smaller pie.

Avoiding, and urging others to consider doing the same.

 

[LHUCKS]

I'm with LHUCKS on this, Brady throws for something like 4100/30..

LHUCKS is projecting 4,600/36 for Brady.

Even then you would be insane to pass on him at #5. His strategy is warped.

Exactly, he explains why you shouldnt draft him in the first round, then ends it saying he's projecting an awesome year for him.

It's all relative. I have Stafford and Brees projected for similar numbers and also have CJ and McFadden projected for very strong years...which is why Brady is overvalued. Throw in the fact that there are strong QBBC options, I hate the Brady pick at #5.

 

[Concept Coop]

He did repeat 400 yards...the very next game.

Not quite sure what you're saying here. The defensive adjustment clearly occurred a little more than a month into the season. After which, Newton never approached those yardage numbers again.I'm not saying he didn't hit them. He literally didn't approach them. He had a couple more games in the high 200's, but even those were extreme outliers.He has some bigtime adjusting to do. You're assuming "he's getting better." I'll wait and see. I don't think that's the case.

If defenses adjusted, why did the Panthers win more games, and Newton throw just as many TDs, but far fewer interceptions?Maybe those defenses want to adjust back?