Good thread.
In terms of Cam Newton, I was tempted to think of him as overrated at first, too. It's easy to make the "there's no way he's going to rush for 14 td's again and the passing numbers in the first few games were an aberration" argument. I get it and don't disagree. But do you really see his rushing TD's going all the way down to 2 or 3 or even 5? That seems more unlikely than him topping 14. So even if the rushing td's go down, it's still very likely that he'll be around 10 (give or take a couple). The passing numbers may come down but he's still likely to top 3,500 yards and 20 td's. So, let's say he's a worse fantasy player (as he becomes a better NFL player) but still gives you 3,500 passing yards, 20 passing td's, with 600 rushing yards and 10 td's. Hard to call that overrated based on his ADP. Unless you think he's truly going to crater (which I don't see happening), I think he'll present value.
Re: Brady. Yudkin -- I see what you're saying. I really do. And the argument is sound, but here's my problem with it: the shock and awe/we'll outscore you approach hasn't produced a super bowl for them. Look at the prolific offenses last year -- New England, New Orleans, Green Bay, and Detroit. They all ultimately disappointed in the postseason. Hard to call a Super Bowl appearance a disappointment but I think it's clear that the pass-first, play defense later teams can be beat when they run up against teams that can play defense and bother the QB. The Patriots clearly understand that the vertical passing game is something they've essentially perfected and they can bring it out whenever necessary. But I wouldn't be surprised if they're also thinking that they need to keep their defense (which is improved but still not that good) off the field more and they need to be able to grind out the clock at times. This has been raised in other threads, too, but I think it's also possible that Belichick feels that defenses are increasingly built to stop the pass these days, so he wants to zig while others zag. I'm not saying that I think the Patriots will never throw the ball deep or put up gaudy passing numbers, but, again, I think you could see them work on other facets of the game to be a more complete team capable of matching up favorably against any defense. When they need to being out the big offensive guns, they'll do it, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a more old school approach (and certain personnel moves hint at this), which still means a great season from Brady, but probably something more to the tune of 4,200/32 than 5,000/50.
In terms of Cam Newton, I was tempted to think of him as overrated at first, too. It's easy to make the "there's no way he's going to rush for 14 td's again and the passing numbers in the first few games were an aberration" argument. I get it and don't disagree. But do you really see his rushing TD's going all the way down to 2 or 3 or even 5? That seems more unlikely than him topping 14. So even if the rushing td's go down, it's still very likely that he'll be around 10 (give or take a couple). The passing numbers may come down but he's still likely to top 3,500 yards and 20 td's. So, let's say he's a worse fantasy player (as he becomes a better NFL player) but still gives you 3,500 passing yards, 20 passing td's, with 600 rushing yards and 10 td's. Hard to call that overrated based on his ADP. Unless you think he's truly going to crater (which I don't see happening), I think he'll present value.
Re: Brady. Yudkin -- I see what you're saying. I really do. And the argument is sound, but here's my problem with it: the shock and awe/we'll outscore you approach hasn't produced a super bowl for them. Look at the prolific offenses last year -- New England, New Orleans, Green Bay, and Detroit. They all ultimately disappointed in the postseason. Hard to call a Super Bowl appearance a disappointment but I think it's clear that the pass-first, play defense later teams can be beat when they run up against teams that can play defense and bother the QB. The Patriots clearly understand that the vertical passing game is something they've essentially perfected and they can bring it out whenever necessary. But I wouldn't be surprised if they're also thinking that they need to keep their defense (which is improved but still not that good) off the field more and they need to be able to grind out the clock at times. This has been raised in other threads, too, but I think it's also possible that Belichick feels that defenses are increasingly built to stop the pass these days, so he wants to zig while others zag. I'm not saying that I think the Patriots will never throw the ball deep or put up gaudy passing numbers, but, again, I think you could see them work on other facets of the game to be a more complete team capable of matching up favorably against any defense. When they need to being out the big offensive guns, they'll do it, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a more old school approach (and certain personnel moves hint at this), which still means a great season from Brady, but probably something more to the tune of 4,200/32 than 5,000/50.
