bulger2holt
Footballguy
Let's hear them. Could be very helpful to some of us guppies
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List 5 must have guys and 5 you are avoiding (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter bulger2holt
- Start date
by_the_sea_wannabe
:sj:
my top 5 guys at current adp to take
1. Vincent Brown
2. Ronnie Hillman
3. Chris Givens
4. Fred Davis
5. Miles Austin
my top 5 avoid guys at current adp
1. Montee Ball
2. Josh Gordon
3. Vernon Davis
4; Kenny Britt
5. Randall Cobb
1. Vincent Brown
2. Ronnie Hillman
3. Chris Givens
4. Fred Davis
5. Miles Austin
my top 5 avoid guys at current adp
1. Montee Ball
2. Josh Gordon
3. Vernon Davis
4; Kenny Britt
5. Randall Cobb
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My top 5 I like:
Vincent Brown
Danny Amendola
Brandon Myers
Cecil Shorts
Roy Helu
My top 5 to avoid:
Desean Jackson (don't trust him)
Ryan Mathews
Montee Ball
Miles Austin (I know opposite of last poster)
Lamar Miller at current ADP (Miami's line and inexperience don't equal a round 2 or 3 ADP to me)
Vincent Brown
Danny Amendola
Brandon Myers
Cecil Shorts
Roy Helu
My top 5 to avoid:
Desean Jackson (don't trust him)
Ryan Mathews
Montee Ball
Miles Austin (I know opposite of last poster)
Lamar Miller at current ADP (Miami's line and inexperience don't equal a round 2 or 3 ADP to me)
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Want:
Shane Vereen
Megatron
Daryl Richardson
Joique Bell
Eddie Lacy
Avoid:
Brandon Marshall
Any TE before Round 9 other than Graham in Round 2
Chris Ivory
Darren McFadden
Tom Brady
Shane Vereen
Megatron
Daryl Richardson
Joique Bell
Eddie Lacy
Avoid:
Brandon Marshall
Any TE before Round 9 other than Graham in Round 2
Chris Ivory
Darren McFadden
Tom Brady
AllVolUT
Footballguy
Agreed with your likes. Curious to hear why you dislike the above bolded, especially Gordon and Britt. Both are in my 'do draft list' considering their upside and relatively low ADPs.
Keep in mind this is heavily affected by my draft position(s), as I know all of them already:
Primary Targets
1. Doug Martin
2. Chris Johnson
3. Kenny Britt
4. Mike Williams (TB)
5. Cecil Shorts
Avoiding
1. Darren McFadden
2. Demarco Murray
3. Chris Ivory
4. Randal Cobb
5. Ball (though his ADP is falling quickly to where it might be reasonable)
Primary Targets
1. Doug Martin
2. Chris Johnson
3. Kenny Britt
4. Mike Williams (TB)
5. Cecil Shorts
Avoiding
1. Darren McFadden
2. Demarco Murray
3. Chris Ivory
4. Randal Cobb
5. Ball (though his ADP is falling quickly to where it might be reasonable)
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
Targeting:
Chris Johnson
Shane Vereen
LeVeon Bell
Chris Givens
Dwayne Bowe
Avoiding:
Jamaal Charles
Tom Brady
Darren McFadden
Mike Vick
San Diego Chargers
Chris Johnson
Shane Vereen
LeVeon Bell
Chris Givens
Dwayne Bowe
Avoiding:
Jamaal Charles
Tom Brady
Darren McFadden
Mike Vick
San Diego Chargers
CataclysmicThunder
Footballguy
Targeting:
Shane Vereen
Daryl Richardson
Ronnie Hillman
Coby Fleener
Kenny Britt
Avoiding:
Monte Ball
Darren McFadden
Greg Jennings
Miles Austin
Jonathan Stewart
Shane Vereen
Daryl Richardson
Ronnie Hillman
Coby Fleener
Kenny Britt
Avoiding:
Monte Ball
Darren McFadden
Greg Jennings
Miles Austin
Jonathan Stewart
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Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
Targets
1. Britt
2. Hilton
3. Reggie bush
4. Garçon
5. Rg3
Avoiding
1. McFadden
2. Murray
3. Brady
4. Forte
5. Rodgers
1. Britt
2. Hilton
3. Reggie bush
4. Garçon
5. Rg3
Avoiding
1. McFadden
2. Murray
3. Brady
4. Forte
5. Rodgers
Keith Lewis
Footballguy
Target
Charles
Richardson
Gore
Kaepernick
Hilton
Avoid
McFadden
Mathews
Murray
R. Wilson
Cobb
Charles
Richardson
Gore
Kaepernick
Hilton
Avoid
McFadden
Mathews
Murray
R. Wilson
Cobb
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
These are all based on prices I am seeing them go for in auctions...
Want:
Vereen
CJ2K
Givens
Bowe
Charles (if his knee is okay; this one is in limbo)
Do not want:
Ray Rice
Ridley
Torrey Smith (he's going cheap, and I still don't want him)
Alfred Morris (I like him a lot, but he is going for too much this year)
Any QB that costs more than $20
Want:
Vereen
CJ2K
Givens
Bowe
Charles (if his knee is okay; this one is in limbo)
Do not want:
Ray Rice
Ridley
Torrey Smith (he's going cheap, and I still don't want him)
Alfred Morris (I like him a lot, but he is going for too much this year)
Any QB that costs more than $20
Run It Up
Footballguy
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I do about 6-8 auctions a year, and I will usually spend more than $20 on a QB in one of them, just to see how that team does, but I generally believe in building strength at RB and WR in an auction, so most of my starter money goes to those positions. And it usually works out well for me.
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Mr. Brownstone
Footballguy
Targeting:
T.Y. Hilton
David Wilson
Andrew Luck
Vincent Brown
Steven Ridley
Downgrading:
Desean Jackson
Darren McFadden
Mike Wallace
Ryan Mathews
Demarco Murray
T.Y. Hilton
David Wilson
Andrew Luck
Vincent Brown
Steven Ridley
Downgrading:
Desean Jackson
Darren McFadden
Mike Wallace
Ryan Mathews
Demarco Murray
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Want
1. Ingram
2. Shorts
3. Vernon Davis
4. Amendola
5. Spiller
Don't
1. DMC
2. Jennings
3. Foster
4. Bradshaw
5. Myers
1. Ingram
2. Shorts
3. Vernon Davis
4. Amendola
5. Spiller
Don't
1. DMC
2. Jennings
3. Foster
4. Bradshaw
5. Myers
Casting Couch
Footballguy
In :
Spiller
Shorts
Vereen
Hilton
Broyles
Out :
Mathews or any Charger player
Arian Foster
MJD
Mike Wallace
Jonathan Stewart
Spiller
Shorts
Vereen
Hilton
Broyles
Out :
Mathews or any Charger player
Arian Foster
MJD
Mike Wallace
Jonathan Stewart
death of the cool
Footballguy
At this rate Shane Vereen is going to go from priced right to way over priced by the end of the week....
Guys I don't trust and thus will most likely not be on my team
D. Mcfadden
R.Mathews
H.Nicks
M.Ball (more about his steep price than trust issues)
D.Williams/J.Stewart
Guys I don't trust and thus will most likely not be on my team
D. Mcfadden
R.Mathews
H.Nicks
M.Ball (more about his steep price than trust issues)
D.Williams/J.Stewart
msudaisy26
Footballguy
All the drafts I have done this year so far are rookie or 1.5 ppr for tight ends so take this with a grain of salt. He is going in the 9th round on average and guys like Tate, Ingram and others are still on the board.
I also think he is going to be 5th or 6th best offensive weapon on the Giants, and other than 2011 Eli has barely hit 4000 yards in a season, and only hit 30 touchdowns once in his career. So if we assume 20 touchdown passes go to Nicks, Cruz, Randle, 3 touchdown passes to the backs, that leaves about 5 or 6 touchdown to the rest of the receivers and tight ends. That gives Myers maybe 3 or 4.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Hes already going in the early 5th in 12 team ppr mocks, and has been for a week and a half.
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Hawkfire
Footballguy
Want
Miller
D Wilson
R Wilson
Givens
TY Hilton
A. Brown
Fleener
Don't want
Any ahole WR that likes to get arrested and smoke lots of dope - Britt, Blackmon, Kenbrell Thompson, Gordon
Any player currently on the Jets, used to play for the Jets or knows someone that plays/used to play for Jets (team is a dumpster fire)
Lattimore - dude tore like 17 things in his leg, even longe range dynasty - pass
Any QB for the Eagles
Crabtree/Harvin - 13 weeks of dead space for a maybe
Miller
D Wilson
R Wilson
Givens
TY Hilton
A. Brown
Fleener
Don't want
Any ahole WR that likes to get arrested and smoke lots of dope - Britt, Blackmon, Kenbrell Thompson, Gordon
Any player currently on the Jets, used to play for the Jets or knows someone that plays/used to play for Jets (team is a dumpster fire)
Lattimore - dude tore like 17 things in his leg, even longe range dynasty - pass
Any QB for the Eagles
Crabtree/Harvin - 13 weeks of dead space for a maybe
by_the_sea_wannabe
:sj:
Britt and Gordon for me are in a very large tier with 14 other guys and they are being drafted at the top of that tier while other guys I have in that same tier are being drafted 2/3 rounds later. Guys like Vincent Brown, Kendall Wright, Den. Moore, or Chris Givens.
Gordon - 2 game suspension plus a terrible qb limiting is upside is just to much risk for me at 7.5, the talent is obviously there.
Britt - between the off-field stuff and injuries and the drafting of Hunter and Wright/ I just can't get on board with him at 7.12.
Vernon Davis I believe has been pushed up the draft board higher than he deserves because of PItta and Hernandez. I don't think his production merits a late 5/early 6th round draft pick. I would rather either take Gronk/Gonzo/Witten earlier, Olsen a little later, or just wait 4-6 rounds.
by_the_sea_wannabe
:sj:
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Khy
Footballguy
Want:
1) David Wilson: Read his Spotlight written up by Jason Wood who seems to have the same thoughts on him that I do right now. Andre Brown is a threat to Wilson like salad is a threat to your heart.
2) TY Hilton: Reggie Wayne is old, DHB couldn't catch a ball with a fishing net let alone his hands, someone needs to catch passes in Indy I think Hiltion is the most likely.
3) Alex Smith: Easiest SOS for QBs entering the season, great pass heavy system behind him, one of the best O-Line's in the league, several passing weapons (Bowe, Charles, McCluster, Baldwin) and one of the best rushing games behind him? Everything is lined up for a potential Top 10 season from a guy who is currently going undrafted in most leagues.
4) Kenbrell Thompkins: The hype is rising on him, if you draft this weekend he's still probably worth the late round flier. But by next week he may be up around the 10-12th round if he performs again in a preseason game. So this may change (I draft 3 of my leagues this weekend and I'm targetting him late in all of them).
5) Maurice Jones-Drew: He's going at mid-RB2 right now. Everyone knows if he can stay healthy he's always a threat for Top 5 production. That upside enough is worth taking him and hoping. Worst case scenario is he gets you a few big games while he's healthy.
Avoid:
1) Lamar Miller: I'm just not buying the hype with Miller. I've watched so much of his college tape and every down he played last season and I still don't understand where this hype is coming from. All I see is Chris Johnson with less lateral agility and worse vision. Which to me doesn't compute into a 'breakout' anything.
2) Randall Cobb: He's just too expensive and on a team with a rough schedule and a ton of targets. He's being drafted as a Top 10 WR and I think you'll be lucky if he finishes Top 15.
3) Doug Martin: He's more or less the 1.02 pick on everyone's board right now. I just don't trust it, we have one year of stats to look at and it shows us that he should have finished about RB7 last season if not for two MASSIVE games where he scored over 33% of his yearly production in. If he played to his mean during those games he'd be getting drafted more around 1.05-1.07 this season and I think that's where he should be drafted.
4) Arian Foster: Every year since his breakout season Foster's production has dramatically declined and his touches have increased. I just don't see him making it out of this season healthy and even if he does I expect to see this decreasing trend continue. By this same token, Ben Tate is a guy I want in most of my leagues if he drops because I think you may have a every down RB out of him after a few weeks.
5) Drew Brees: Couple the worst schedule in the NFL for a QB with one of the worst defenses in the league behind him and the fact that most camp reports are saying they are going to run a lot more than last season. I just start to see a Drew Brees that finishes outside the Top 5 this season.
1) David Wilson: Read his Spotlight written up by Jason Wood who seems to have the same thoughts on him that I do right now. Andre Brown is a threat to Wilson like salad is a threat to your heart.
2) TY Hilton: Reggie Wayne is old, DHB couldn't catch a ball with a fishing net let alone his hands, someone needs to catch passes in Indy I think Hiltion is the most likely.
3) Alex Smith: Easiest SOS for QBs entering the season, great pass heavy system behind him, one of the best O-Line's in the league, several passing weapons (Bowe, Charles, McCluster, Baldwin) and one of the best rushing games behind him? Everything is lined up for a potential Top 10 season from a guy who is currently going undrafted in most leagues.
4) Kenbrell Thompkins: The hype is rising on him, if you draft this weekend he's still probably worth the late round flier. But by next week he may be up around the 10-12th round if he performs again in a preseason game. So this may change (I draft 3 of my leagues this weekend and I'm targetting him late in all of them).
5) Maurice Jones-Drew: He's going at mid-RB2 right now. Everyone knows if he can stay healthy he's always a threat for Top 5 production. That upside enough is worth taking him and hoping. Worst case scenario is he gets you a few big games while he's healthy.
Avoid:
1) Lamar Miller: I'm just not buying the hype with Miller. I've watched so much of his college tape and every down he played last season and I still don't understand where this hype is coming from. All I see is Chris Johnson with less lateral agility and worse vision. Which to me doesn't compute into a 'breakout' anything.
2) Randall Cobb: He's just too expensive and on a team with a rough schedule and a ton of targets. He's being drafted as a Top 10 WR and I think you'll be lucky if he finishes Top 15.
3) Doug Martin: He's more or less the 1.02 pick on everyone's board right now. I just don't trust it, we have one year of stats to look at and it shows us that he should have finished about RB7 last season if not for two MASSIVE games where he scored over 33% of his yearly production in. If he played to his mean during those games he'd be getting drafted more around 1.05-1.07 this season and I think that's where he should be drafted.
4) Arian Foster: Every year since his breakout season Foster's production has dramatically declined and his touches have increased. I just don't see him making it out of this season healthy and even if he does I expect to see this decreasing trend continue. By this same token, Ben Tate is a guy I want in most of my leagues if he drops because I think you may have a every down RB out of him after a few weeks.
5) Drew Brees: Couple the worst schedule in the NFL for a QB with one of the worst defenses in the league behind him and the fact that most camp reports are saying they are going to run a lot more than last season. I just start to see a Drew Brees that finishes outside the Top 5 this season.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
Want:
1. Ben Tate
2. Fitzgerald
3. Spiller
4. Witten
5. D. Richardson
Avoid:
Trent Richardson, especially at current ADP
Amedola
any players from Jets, Jags, Dolphins and to a lesser extent, Eagles
Sjax
Gronkowski
1. Ben Tate
2. Fitzgerald
3. Spiller
4. Witten
5. D. Richardson
Avoid:
Trent Richardson, especially at current ADP
Amedola
any players from Jets, Jags, Dolphins and to a lesser extent, Eagles
Sjax
Gronkowski
Jayrok
Footballguy
You are factually incorrect, aka wrong. If you remove the top two games from every top 10 RB (standard scoring) Martin finishes as RB5. Not RB7.
As a rookie. When there's no legitimate reason to arbitrarily remove the two best games from players before comparing them, as if him winning you two matchups by himself is a bad thing. And then there's the fact that he is no longer a rookie, and has upgrades at the Guard position.
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pizzatyme
Footballguy
I only play in Best Ball leagues this year so it impacts my thoughts here:
Get:
TY Hilton
Deangelo Williams
Vick Ballard
Coby Fleener
Desean Jackson
Forget:
Montee Ball
Antonio Gates
Any Raiders or Jets Starters
Mike Wallace
Jimmy Graham-someone mentioned he was good value in the 2nd or else he'd wait until the 9th rd. There is no way Graham is 7 rounds of value clear of any other TE. I like Graham, but there is still tons of TE production available later. I'd rather get my RB2 here in the 2nd rd.
Get:
TY Hilton
Deangelo Williams
Vick Ballard
Coby Fleener
Desean Jackson
Forget:
Montee Ball
Antonio Gates
Any Raiders or Jets Starters
Mike Wallace
Jimmy Graham-someone mentioned he was good value in the 2nd or else he'd wait until the 9th rd. There is no way Graham is 7 rounds of value clear of any other TE. I like Graham, but there is still tons of TE production available later. I'd rather get my RB2 here in the 2nd rd.
Khy
Footballguy
I'll be honest I didn't go back to the post where I actually sat down and did the math for it. I was fairly certain he turned out to 6th or 7th when you removed the Top 2 games from each Top 10 RB and then gave them their season average for the other two games. As for the argument that there's no legitimate reason to remove the two best games from players when comparing them, I will disagree highly on that point. It works very well for a lot of scenarios and the 33% of his stats coming in 2 games is something that every professional writer has mentioned several times as a potential precaution. Martin holds a rather high deviation from the average of the Top 10 RBs from last season. The rest of them averaged about 23% (if memory serves) of their overall production from their Top 2 games. A 10% differential from the mean of your peers in a stat that provides a hint towards inconsistency isn't a good thing and not something that should be ignored in my opinion. He had 4 TDs in one game, even if you gave him 1 TD for that game and let him keep the yards he still finishes the season with 9 TDs instead of 12 TDs which is a rather large difference. It's pretty much the difference from him and say... Jamaal Charles.
I'm in no way saying Doug Martin will be a bust this season... all I'm saying is if you expect anything like last seasons performance I think you're in for a disappointment. I wouldn't draft him at 1.01 or 1.02 where he is going because I legitimately think that he will finish slightly outside the Top 5. Now obviously if you take him at 1.02 and he finishes as RB6 then it's not the end of the world but it's not really ideal either. I'd just rather take someone like Charles or Spiller at 1.02 whom I think have roughly the same floor as Martin while providing a significantly higher ceiling than him.
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Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Khy
Footballguy
Just so I'm clear, you want to draft the Colts? I feel like I'd be rather depressed if my entire fantasy season hinged on the Colts having a Top 5 offense. Which is really what you're asking for if you're drafting all three of Ballard, Fleener and Hilton.
As for Graham, he'll probably finish well above the excepted value of any other TE. We're talking a situation where you could see Graham as TE1 at the end of the season with 270 Points and someone like Witten at #2 with 200 points. He is well worth the first round pick. If the Top 5 or 6 RBs are gone and Megatron is gone I don't see how you take anyone but Graham.
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socrates
Footballguy
Want:
1. Chris Givens: Givens is coming off of a strong rookie season, but the presence of Austin has caused some owners to lose sight of Givens' tremendous value. I like Givens as the WR1 for what should be a more explosive Rams' offense.
2. Shane Vereen: Vereen's ADP is quickly rising, so his value is losing some of its lustre. I have long been a fan of Vereen; he has solid skills, a workmanlike attitude, and he is a high character player. My biggest concern with Vereen is durability. In a part-time role, Vereen has shown a tendency to be dinged up.
3. LaMichael James: While Vereen has been getting more hype in recent weeks than James, I like James to have a similar ascent this season. James is an electrifying player with the ball in his hands, and with the lack of quality targets for Kaepernick, look for the Niners to find a way to get James invovled.
4. Danny Amendola: Amendola has long been compared to Welker. If he can stay healthy, look for Amendola to put up Welker-like numbers.
5. Ronnie Hillman: I usually avoid platoon RB situations, and I may regret targeting Hillman, but I am not sold on Ball, and Hillman appears to be motivated to prove he can be an every-down back; moreover, Hillman will have value even in a RBBC, especially in PPR formats.
Avoid:
1. Oft-injured players with high ADPs: I am avoiding the McFaddens, Mathews, MJD's, Murrays and even Trent Richardson, where I can get a more reliable player at that same draft spot.
2. Early Round QBs: I will allow others to grab Brees, Rodgers, Manning, Brady and company, and I will get value later.
3. Early Round TEs: Like with QBs, I will let Graham and Gronk go to someone else early, and I will double up later.
4. Punks: While I am assembling a fantasy roster, not a church choir, I prefer to avoid time-bomb players. When comparing players of relatively similar talent, give me the guy with his head on right.
5. Most Rookies: Rookie hype often far exceeds production.
1. Chris Givens: Givens is coming off of a strong rookie season, but the presence of Austin has caused some owners to lose sight of Givens' tremendous value. I like Givens as the WR1 for what should be a more explosive Rams' offense.
2. Shane Vereen: Vereen's ADP is quickly rising, so his value is losing some of its lustre. I have long been a fan of Vereen; he has solid skills, a workmanlike attitude, and he is a high character player. My biggest concern with Vereen is durability. In a part-time role, Vereen has shown a tendency to be dinged up.
3. LaMichael James: While Vereen has been getting more hype in recent weeks than James, I like James to have a similar ascent this season. James is an electrifying player with the ball in his hands, and with the lack of quality targets for Kaepernick, look for the Niners to find a way to get James invovled.
4. Danny Amendola: Amendola has long been compared to Welker. If he can stay healthy, look for Amendola to put up Welker-like numbers.
5. Ronnie Hillman: I usually avoid platoon RB situations, and I may regret targeting Hillman, but I am not sold on Ball, and Hillman appears to be motivated to prove he can be an every-down back; moreover, Hillman will have value even in a RBBC, especially in PPR formats.
Avoid:
1. Oft-injured players with high ADPs: I am avoiding the McFaddens, Mathews, MJD's, Murrays and even Trent Richardson, where I can get a more reliable player at that same draft spot.
2. Early Round QBs: I will allow others to grab Brees, Rodgers, Manning, Brady and company, and I will get value later.
3. Early Round TEs: Like with QBs, I will let Graham and Gronk go to someone else early, and I will double up later.
4. Punks: While I am assembling a fantasy roster, not a church choir, I prefer to avoid time-bomb players. When comparing players of relatively similar talent, give me the guy with his head on right.
5. Most Rookies: Rookie hype often far exceeds production.
Shutout
Footballguy
I don't really have an entire list to toss out there but I will mention that, based on where people are likelyt able to draft them, guys like
Wayne
Roddy
Mike Williams
probably warrant felony charges. As usual, all the kids are distracted by the new toys under the tree and forgetting the reliable old toys. Every time I see this happen I think of that 1960's refrigerator my grandpa has in his basement that has been running for 50 years and the 3 new ones I have worked on in the last ten years. They just don't make 'em like they used to as the old folks say.
All the dismissing of Foster. Man, there are going to be a LOT of upset people during this season. Please don't choke the boards up with all the whining about how you just can't understand the woes of your ff team because you passed on Foster. TIA.
Just to put this whole Foster thing into perspective, does anyone remember that at this same age in their career that LaDanian Tomlinson have over 1700 carries? Does anyone remember that there WERE a lot of peeople saying sell him at that time because, at the time, people commonly said that anything over 1500 was borrowed time? Does anyone remember what Tomlinson did in that age 27 year? That was the 1800/28TD year. Followed by a 1400/15Td year.
At this exact same juncture in Terrell Davis' career, we heard the same thing: 951 carries in three years. He can't possibly keep this up. Enter 1998...2008 yards and 20+ TDs.
The reports of Foster's death have been greatly exaggerated (unless of course that old lady in the AUdi is driving through Houston today).
Wayne
Roddy
Mike Williams
probably warrant felony charges. As usual, all the kids are distracted by the new toys under the tree and forgetting the reliable old toys. Every time I see this happen I think of that 1960's refrigerator my grandpa has in his basement that has been running for 50 years and the 3 new ones I have worked on in the last ten years. They just don't make 'em like they used to as the old folks say.
All the dismissing of Foster. Man, there are going to be a LOT of upset people during this season. Please don't choke the boards up with all the whining about how you just can't understand the woes of your ff team because you passed on Foster. TIA.
Just to put this whole Foster thing into perspective, does anyone remember that at this same age in their career that LaDanian Tomlinson have over 1700 carries? Does anyone remember that there WERE a lot of peeople saying sell him at that time because, at the time, people commonly said that anything over 1500 was borrowed time? Does anyone remember what Tomlinson did in that age 27 year? That was the 1800/28TD year. Followed by a 1400/15Td year.
At this exact same juncture in Terrell Davis' career, we heard the same thing: 951 carries in three years. He can't possibly keep this up. Enter 1998...2008 yards and 20+ TDs.
The reports of Foster's death have been greatly exaggerated (unless of course that old lady in the AUdi is driving through Houston today).
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Khy
Footballguy
I agree with almost all of your wants except Amendola. I've never thought he was much of a talent, definitely not on Welker's level. I personally see Brady's numbers decreasing this season a little bit. I do LOVE Shane Vereen though and I personally see him and not Amendola as the guy who is really going to reap the rewards of Hernandez, Welker and Gronk (? for some time) not being on the field. I'm avoiding Amendola to be honest and he kind of slipped my mind on my list. Ridley, Vereen and Thompkins are the people I want out of New England and that's it.
I agree with part of your #1 on avoid. I am also avoiding McFadden and Mathews and likely Murray. MJD is going so late now I think he's worth the flier all reports from camp are that he looks like MJD of 2010 and I like the sound of that in the 3rd-4th round. As for Richardson, I think he's fine. Even injured last season he put up an amazing season that's overshadowed by Martin and Morris. Richardson could finish RB1 this season if he stays healthy.
There are 4 rookies I'm interested in and most are 'value' picks. I like Thompkins, Patterson, Austin and Bell. Patterson and Thompkins are almost free picks with how late they're going. Austin and Bell I think are just going to be involved in their respective offenses so much that their floor is tremendous for where they're going right now.
Khy
Footballguy
Being completely serious... can you give me a legitimate reason to not dismiss Foster besides your word? To me all signs point to either a year even less than last season or possible serious injury (he's already slightly hurt) that ends his season early due to being completely over worked the past three season (see MJD).
2010: 327 Carries, 1616 yards, 16 TDs | 66 Receptions, 604 yards, 2 TDs | Totals: 393 Touches, 2220 yards, 5.64 ypa, 18 TDs (STD Scoring: 330 | PPR Scoring: 396)
2011: 342 Carries, 1506 yards, 12 TDs | 65 Receptions, 759 yards, 3 TDs | Totals: 407 Touches, 2265 yards, 5.56 ypa, 15 TDs (STD Scoring: 316 | PPR Scoring: 381)
2012: 351 Carries, 1424 yards, 15 TDs | 40 Receptions, 217 yards, 2 TDs | Totals: 391 Touches, 1641 yards, 4.19 ypa, 17 TDs (STD Scoring: 266 | PPR Scoring: 306)
So what we see here is a slow decline from 2010 to 2011 and then a rather large decline in 2012. With an extraordinary amount of work for the past three seasons. Do you have any inside information on a reasoning that he won't continue this decline and score even lower this season?
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Want:
Kenny Britt - For his ADP, massive value if he hits.
Shane Vereen - Will be heavily involved in this offense as both a runner and a pass catcher. Great value, especially in PPR.
Vincent Brown - #1 receiver in an offense that I think will be better this year under McCoy. Will lead the team in receptions if he stays healthy.
Jeremy Kerley - Someone has to catch the ball in New York, and Kerley showed last year that he is more than a slot guy. Massive PPR value, as he'll catch 70+ balls.
Coby Fleener - Will break out this year and catch 8-10 TDs.
Avoid:
Montee Ball - Not a fan of his, and his ADP is ridiculous for a guy who is going to be in a time share.
Any QB in the first 5 rounds - So much value later I don't see the reason to pick one early, unless the value is ridiculous.
Randall Cobb - I love Cobb, but his ADP puts me off. Where he is being drafted I'd rather have Fitz or Roddy. Nelson is the Green Bay WR I'm looking at.
Kenny Britt - For his ADP, massive value if he hits.
Shane Vereen - Will be heavily involved in this offense as both a runner and a pass catcher. Great value, especially in PPR.
Vincent Brown - #1 receiver in an offense that I think will be better this year under McCoy. Will lead the team in receptions if he stays healthy.
Jeremy Kerley - Someone has to catch the ball in New York, and Kerley showed last year that he is more than a slot guy. Massive PPR value, as he'll catch 70+ balls.
Coby Fleener - Will break out this year and catch 8-10 TDs.
Avoid:
Montee Ball - Not a fan of his, and his ADP is ridiculous for a guy who is going to be in a time share.
Any QB in the first 5 rounds - So much value later I don't see the reason to pick one early, unless the value is ridiculous.
Randall Cobb - I love Cobb, but his ADP puts me off. Where he is being drafted I'd rather have Fitz or Roddy. Nelson is the Green Bay WR I'm looking at.
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Shutout
Footballguy
I can give you a ton. I have actually posted in another thread or two a lot of different thoughts but in a very short rundown that you can check those threads for the detail behind it:
-The Line. If you watch the Texans each and every year, you see what has gone on.
-The production. Despite the theories on this stat slipped, etc, the bottom line is that he has missed a total of 3 games in three years (find me more than 2 other RBs that have been better) and he has finished no worse than top 4 despite those missed games (1, 4, and 3). The single-most misleading thought about that "decline" is that people that don't watch the Texans don't understand how many games Foster was in where his average was 4.8 or higher but at the end of the game, especially when Tate was out, they would simply runs him 3-6 times for a yard or two and kill the clock. The team was on such a roll most of last year that they put it on auto pilot for the 4th quarter but left Foster in there because all their backups were hurt and they had no one to catch out of the backfield or the slot due to injuries.
-Quality starts-Defined as 150 yards rushing OR 100+ and a TD OR at least 2 Tds in a game. Over the last three years, his quality start production is at 69%. Tops in the league. As a comp, Calvin and Peterson are at 44% or so. Go back and look at his floor.
-The team's offensive philosophy.
There is just simply no reason to manufacture a reason in your head to avoid this guy.
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pizzatyme
Footballguy
You must have missed the part where I play in best ball leagues. I don't necessarily want every Colt mentioned on every team, but I am targeting them for sure. As for Graham, in best ball, I can get 2-3 TEs later who will give me similar expected production to Graham at his 1st rd cost. I can't do the reverse and get 1st rd production from later RBs that I would by taking the top RB instead of Graham there.
Hilton in the 6th is a steal in all formats.
Ballard is a steal in BB (best ball) in the 8th or later.
Fleener will help many teams win their league IMO and can be had in the 8th or later.
Khy
Footballguy
Okay, yeah I mean those are all things I understand. I absolutely love Foster, I've had him in 3 different leagues (2 keeper 1 redraft) since his 2010 breakout. This is the first year where I'm REALLY questioning taking him any sooner than 5th. I just feel like you have Peterson as the obvious 1.01, most people are taking Martin at 1.02. Then you hit this block of Foster, Charles, Spiller, Richardson that really makes me scratch my head as to whom to take. Before he tweaked that foot it was Charles by a mile for me but now they've all fallen in line and I'm really not sure who to take there. Foster is on a statistical decline but as you say, the most consistent RB over the past three seasons (and I'm much more of a consistency drafter early on then a risk/reward type). Charles and Spiller should be giants among men if they stay healthy and Richardson has the talent to be RB1 this season if he stays healthy and the team isn't completely awful.
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Khy
Footballguy
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Khy
Footballguy
If I can walk out of any league with two of Spiller, Charles, Bryant I'll be dancing naked singing American Pie while pouring beer on myself as I Crip Walk out of the house I'm drafting in at the time.
Shutout
Footballguy
Yes sir, That would be a good "problem" to have if you are looking at any of those guys. When I mention these things, I'm not trying to sound like Foster's agent or anything. I am speaking more from general terms of people saying "avoid", as if they are truly saying to not take this guy in the first or something.
But in your scenario, its win/win and, to be honest, if it was me, and I was drafting with a mind set of "Don't lose the league with first pick, I take Foster" and If I am drafting with the mindset of "I know I can put a good team together, I'm going for the guy I think might crush the world this year (ppr), I take Charles.
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