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LJ at Indy 1st Round? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Willowdoc
- Start date
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
I'll be thinking hard about dumping LJ in dynasty leagues as fast as possible while his value is still high. Dude has taken on A LOT of mileage already this season and will no doubt have 20+ touches next week as well. HIstory has not been kind to guys that touch it so much...
Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
Eric Dickerson has the playoff record w/ 248 vs Dallas.
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Yeah I'm in a real hurry to dump LJ.He's been the full time starter for 1 year. He's started 28 games in his career.He has 58 TDs.2,100 yards 21 TDs in 2006.NFL Week 1 2007 he'll be 27 years old.Wasn't CMART 31 when he lead the league in rushing?LJ 880 career carries.LT 2040 career carries.SJAX 740 career carries.SA 1950 career carries.Portis 1385 career carries.Westbrook 735 career carries.Yeah I'm getting rid of this guy REAL quick. The sky isn't falling. It wasn't falling when Roaf retired. It wasn't falling when Green was hurt. It wasn't falling when Herm took over. It wasn't falling when Dicky left. LJ is an elite RB. Who is just getting started. Least let him start for 2 full years before you dump him mkay?
Iron Mike Tomczak
Footballguy
Yea....
Just hope he doesnt pull an SA or a Priest Holmes and you should be alright....
Just hope he doesnt pull an SA or a Priest Holmes and you should be alright....
seahawk 17
Footballguy
Indy couldn't of drawn a worse match up.
Will Manning still be called a choker, when the Colts defense is to blame for this loss?
Will Manning still be called a choker, when the Colts defense is to blame for this loss?
Iron Mike Tomczak
Footballguy
The best defense is a good offense.
If you believe that, Manning is indeed a choke artist
If you believe that, Manning is indeed a choke artist
Blue-Kun
Footballguy
Yeah I was just looking that up. I couldn't even find another player with 200 yards rushing in a post-season game, though it looks like nearly a dozen players have had combined yardage games of over 200 yards in the modern era. Pretty incredible when you think about it.
None_More_Black
Footballguy
Real bad matchup for the colts. Decent d and top notch running game. Waiting for the spread, should be interesting.
Iron Mike Tomczak
Footballguy
im thinking 165 ru, 20-40 rec. and 1-3 scores is highly possible to expect.
maxwell1295
Footballguy
Freeman McNeil of the Jets did it against the Bengals, I think in 1983...Blue-Kun said:
Iron Mike Tomczak
Footballguy
did willie parker break 200 in the superbowl?
Blue-Kun
Footballguy
1982 cin W,44-17 | 22 211 1 Good one!
Willie Parker didn't even break 100 yards rushing in the super bowl.
Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
Iron Mike Tomczak
Footballguy
he musta had the longest run in superbowl history....
i forget exactly, i was drunk, all i remember is he set a SB rushing record.
i forget exactly, i was drunk, all i remember is he set a SB rushing record.
Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
Johnson could have upper 30s in carries, maxing out at 41, 42 or 43.
Parker did break Marcus Allen's record for longest run in SB history.
Parker did break Marcus Allen's record for longest run in SB history.
x260bm
Footballguy
I think touches in a season are an overrated stat. If LJ ends up with 490 touches, it’s not necessarily going to affect him next year. It is true that some players seem to breakdown after a big year. Other players have big years for several seasons in a row. LT has not had a season with less than 390 touches. I think age and sustained overuse over several seasons, are bigger factors. As for the players that have one big year and then seem to breakdown, RBs can have fluke seasons just like any other position.Colin Dowling said:
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H.K.
Footballguy
The idea that Manning has lost shootouts in the post season is a complete falacy.In Colt losses in the playoffs with Manning at QB the Colts have never scored more than 18 points.Manning has 3 TD's vs. 7 Int's in all six of his playoff losses. Also, the Colts have averaged ~11 points in those six losses.Basically, this is not a "Dan Fouts" situation where his team gets outscored. In playoff games where Manning has lost, his team has not scored enough to win, regardless of what the defense has done.Of course..seahawk 17 said:He could go out there next week, throw for 5 TD's and run for another, Have zero Int's and have over 350 yards and if they lost 45-42 it would be ALL him and his choking that keeps costing them chances..
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H.K.
Footballguy
I tend to agree. However, the Colts must throw the ball to win. If they even pretend to attempt balance on offense, they'll just waste downs running and put themselves in a hole.
The idea that Manning has lost shootouts in the post season is a complete falacy.In Colt losses in the playoffs with Manning at QB the Colts have never scored more than 18 points.Manning has 3 TD's vs. 7 Int's in all six of his playoff losses. Also, the Colts have averaged ~11 points in those six losses.Basically, this is not a "Dan Fouts" situation where his team gets outscored. In playoff games where Manning has lost, his team has not scored enough to win, regardless of what the defense has done.Of course..seahawk 17 said:He could go out there next week, throw for 5 TD's and run for another, Have zero Int's and have over 350 yards and if they lost 45-42 it would be ALL him and his choking that keeps costing them chances..
Manning, Offense Nearly Perfect AgainFrom James Alder,Your Guide to Football.FREE Newsletter. Sign Up Now!Jan 11 2004Indianapolis Colts 38, Kansas City Chiefs 31Hunter Smith must feel like the least valuable player in the playoffs. He’s stood on the sidelines watching the Colts offense put 79 points on the board over the last two contests while he has yet to put his foot on a single ball. For the second week in a row, the Indianapolis Colts offense was so devastating that they could have left their punter in the locker room and no one would have noticed. Peyton Manning played tremendously for the second week in a row, throwing for 304 yards and three touchdowns, and led the offense to six scores in their first seven drives on their way to a 38-31 win over the Kansas City Chiefs. The Colts jumped out to a quick start by taking the opening kickoff and marching 71 yards in 10 plays, including a 29-yard touchdown pass from Manning to wide receiver Brandon Stokley less than six minutes into the game. Kansas City, who put together a pretty nice offensive performance themselves, bounced back with a nice drive of their own.ETA: My bad - you were only talking about losses in the playoffs.
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Kevin Ashcraft
Footballguy
Only way KC has a shot is this gameplan:
LJ left
LJ up the gut
Bennett to the left
LJ to the right
Bennett to the right
about 50 combined times......and we have a chance.
LJ left
LJ up the gut
Bennett to the left
LJ to the right
Bennett to the right
about 50 combined times......and we have a chance.
Iron Mike Tomczak
Footballguy
Colts win vs.KC, thats like saying a midget beats up a baby though.
Kevin Ashcraft
Footballguy
?????I mean I know KC does not have a good playoff history vs. Indy, but if that is all you are referring to I do not get your analogy.
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
I think you miss my point. Look at Jamal Anderson, Jamal Lewis, Ricky Williams, etc. Getting so many touches in a season is not a good thing. Sure, it's entirely possible/probable that he'll be fine for the next 1,2,3, or 4 seasons. However, in dynasty leagues, things go from "great" to "bad" in one stroke if a player falls off and it can take YEARS to recover. Something like the 1.01 rookie pick (Peterson) and a couple starters would definitely be worth consideration, and would certainly seem like a reasonable get.billyjoe said:
Iron Mike Tomczak
Footballguy
A midget can kill a baby but has no chance against a real person.....
That is my only reference I thought it was pretty straightforward.
That is my only reference I thought it was pretty straightforward.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
dude, no offense but this is over thinking it.Colin Dowling said:
No I see the point. And the sky isn't falling.Lewis had 387 carries, and over next 3 years had pretty much 1,100 total yards each year. The offense was bad, and he's always been injury prone. Lewis is also a much bigger back, and then tend to have a much shorter life span.Ricky Williams, how did he implode? He quit football. Then got suspended for a year. This was because of his 383 carries in 2002?Jamal Anderson is a decent comparison. But you can mention Emmitt Smith. He had over 400 carries 4 times (including playoffs).Walter Payton had 420 touches in 1985 (at a much older age) and came back with two huge years in 86/87. 1986 again close to 400 touches.Dickerson started his career with 420 touches! 400 in his 2nd year. 420+ in his 4th year.LT had 372 touches and 79 catches his 2nd year. 450 touches? Good move by whoever "dumped" LT after that. If you add in LTs catches, he's had 4-5 years 400+ touches. Plus LJ didn't play a ton in college. He only started one year. So in his pro/college career, LJ has started 2 full years. And we should dump him cause he had 400 carries? Cmon.LT has 1200 more touches, but no one seems to be trying to "dump" LT.
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Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
LOL, I just logged in to start this same thread.
Indy has to be THRILLED to see Larry coming to town in the 1st round. Not to mention that the Chiefs had a pretty decent pass defense this season. I think the Chiefs have a pretty damned good shot at this one.
Oh wait.... Herm Edwards is still the coach, right?
Nevermind.
Indy has to be THRILLED to see Larry coming to town in the 1st round. Not to mention that the Chiefs had a pretty decent pass defense this season. I think the Chiefs have a pretty damned good shot at this one.
Oh wait.... Herm Edwards is still the coach, right?
Nevermind.
B. Nugget
Footballguy
How many carries and how old were the players you were using as examples Colin? If the carries are low and the RB is mid to late 20s without a lot of mileage, I can't see how it is relevant.If the offer is enough, everybody should be thinking about trading LJ, but if the the only thing going against him is a big workload, I don't think your analysis has a leg to stand on by itself.By the way, if Gonzo doesn't have a big game, don't look for LJ to be the savior, because the Colts will set out to stop the run. Gonzo will torch the LBs early or LJ won't have the game many are expecting because Gonzo is the key to the Chiefs offense unless the Colts just don't show up on D.
If the Colts can magically stop the run, why haven't they the past 16 games? They are the worst rush D by 20+ yards. They are GARBAGE. A solid rush offense like KC will kill them. Waters is going to eat them up. The Colts are the smallest front 7 in the league. The next 4 smallest are all ranked poorly against the run. It's not rocket science. They're small, beat up, and going to be facing an elite rushing attack. LJ is good for 170-200 yards and 2 tds. Green should get lots of 1on1 match ups on the outside.I agree it's a bad matchup for the Colts. Denver? That would have been pretty much automatic. Denver is the only team Manning actually shows up against.
still have to stop the Colts though.
Kevin Ashcraft
Footballguy
No doubt, but running the ball 50 times, if done successfully, limits the chances for Manning & Co.If the Chiefs don't win TOP I know they have no chance......our O-Line will not hold up in pass protection. And BTW Jason Dunn is out for the playoffs, so that hurts in pass protection.
The odd thing is that LJ breaking runs won't help. They need to eat time off the clock like Parcells old Giants against San Fran.I don't think Herm is shrewd enough to pull it off but it'll be fun to watch and see if he can.
JaxBill
Footballguy
Replying again.Ya know everytime I see the Colts I still see Dungy and expect more from their D than they produce. One day, I'm going to be right.
That guy has a great defensive mind, I don't get it. I will go out on a limb(only a little) and say they can't be THAT predictable(50) against a Dungy D. Maybe 30-40 
As a KC fan you're looking at the matchup already probably, do you do that dance in your head with Dungy and coaching D?
pizzatyme
Footballguy
Yup, the same thing they were saying a few years back when Indy went INTO KC and beat their asses in a shootout.Indy is 8-0 at home this season. KC's road record? I like the Colts "chances" this week.
x260bm
Footballguy
I agree with everything you said except for Anderson being a good comparison. In 1998 he had 800 more yards rushing than any other year of his career. He was injury prone before and after that. That was also the year the Falcons were 14-2. I think his 1800 yard season was a total fluke.Eh, Jamal Anderson had a lot of touches, then got hurt, but he got hurt on a freak "astroturf" play. It wasn't a Curtis Martin style breakdown where he breaks down slowly over time. It was one freak play. It wouldn't have mattered. Staying healthy is a luck thing, IMO. Look at Buckhalter.BTW, Colts win 38-31. Lose the next week on the road to Baltimore. Manning gets blamed even though Lewis goes for 150+ and Balt controls T.O.P.
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Yup! 38-31, 1 TD difference! WOW! That was a whooping! Living in the past. Try new coach, different players in 2006. Basing this game on a playoff game from 2003 is pretty stupid! Try KC whoop up on the Colts in 2004 45-35 if you want to live in the recent past! I can't stand it when people compare teams from year to year. Things change! Try to make a intelligent comparison base on what the teams have done in a current season.
As for the Colts being 8-0 at home. That's true, but they barely beat Tennessee (8-8) 14-13 and Buffalo (7-9) 17-16. One point in those games. They beat Houston (6-10), Jacksonville (8-8), Washington (5-11), Philadelphia (10-6) and Cincinnati (8-8) and Miami (6-10) at home. Seven of those wins came from non playoff teams with the exception being Philadelphia. That's a 58-70 record for those teams.
I will give you this being that at least they beat the teams they were suppose to beat compared to KC who lost to Cleveland, Miami on the road along with a terrable loss 45-7 at Pittsburgh.
I wouldn't be so happy about this match up. KC has moved from the bottom of the NFL (25th in 2005) in Total Defense to about 15th this year. 13th against the pass compared to 30th against the pass in 2005. That's a lot different than in years past. Edwards like ball control. Ball control on the offense in rushing 8th (131/gm) to rushing defense being 18th (121/gm). KC defense has made some strides on Defense since Edwards becoming the head coach.
Also, on any given Sunday/Saturday, any team can beat someone. Just ask Pittsburgh (lost to Oakland) and Dallas (loss to Detroit).
freeannyong
Footballguy
Please do your homework. http://www.fftoday.com/articles/special/06_rb_heavy.htm
I will highlight a few things.
A heavy season in the article is defined as 370 f/carries where a rush is 1 and a reception is .5.The history says LJ is either going to 1. break down next year or 2. have a significant drop in his fantasy numbers 10-30%.
If I were in a dynasty league and had him I would be trying to trade him in the offseason.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
You missed my point! For anyone to think that KC is going to walk into Indy and take them down without consideration to the past is silly.I know this is a bad matchup for the Colts. The Colts are a dominant team (usually) at home. I think LJ will go for 300+ and 3 TDs. I just happen to think the Colts offense will outscore them.
My prediction is 38-31 Colts.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Johnson will likely gash the Colts sad defense for a lot of yards, but considering how poorly KC often plays on the road, I think the Colts probably win this one.
redman
Footballguy
See, Williams, Ricky, 2002-03. Nobody's bashing LJ's bona fides. We're simply noting that RB's who have as many carries as he has (and will have after the post-season) tend to drop off dramatically in their following season, regardless of age or history.billyjoe said:
redman
Footballguy
Did you wear protection, GB?Colin Dowling said:
fatness
Footballguy
I saw that one on YouTube. The baby hung in there for a little while but then it got ugly.
maxwell1295
Footballguy
I think the only guy you can really compare LJ to in terms of carries is Earl Campbell, although LJ has a different running style. He will avoid contact if possible where as Earl looked for it. Earl was a beast who chose to run through people rather than around/away from them. He had a good run, but a very short career by today's standards. His stats for those few years are incredible though.
1978 Houston 15 302 1450 4.8 13
1979 Houston 16 368 1697 4.6 19
1980 Houston 15 373 1934 5.2 13
1981 Houston 16 361 1376 3.8 10
1982 Houston 9 157 538 3.4 2 18
1983 Houston 14 322 1301 4.0 12
1984 Houston/New Orleans 14 146 468 3.2 4
1985 New Orleans 16 158 643 4.1 1
Career Total 115 2187 9407 4.3 74
1978 Houston 15 302 1450 4.8 13
1979 Houston 16 368 1697 4.6 19
1980 Houston 15 373 1934 5.2 13
1981 Houston 16 361 1376 3.8 10
1982 Houston 9 157 538 3.4 2 18
1983 Houston 14 322 1301 4.0 12
1984 Houston/New Orleans 14 146 468 3.2 4
1985 New Orleans 16 158 643 4.1 1
Career Total 115 2187 9407 4.3 74
