LJ at Indy 1st Round? (1 Viewer)

[SupaDupaTD]

Lamar Smith dropped 209 on the Colts in 2001. If he can do it...

 

[cr8f]

The idea that Manning has lost shootouts in the post season is a complete falacy.

In Colt losses in the playoffs with Manning at QB the Colts have never scored more than 18 points.

Manning has 3 TD's vs. 7 Int's in all six of his playoff losses. Also, the Colts have averaged ~11 points in those six losses.

Basically, this is not a "Dan Fouts" situation where his team gets outscored. In playoff games where Manning has lost, his team has not scored enough to win, regardless of what the defense has done.

Lying again I see.

Manning then went on to lead his team to a 41-10 victory over the Denver Broncos in the wildcard playoff round, his first playoff win after 3 first round losses in the past 3 seasons. He completed 22 of 26 passes for 377 yards and 5 touchdowns in the game, earning him a perfect 158.3 Passer Rating. Then in the divisional playoffs, Manning led the Colts to a 38-31 win over the Kansas City Chiefs in the first puntless game in NFL playoff history, throwing for 304 yards and 3 touchdowns, and earning an impressive 138.8 passer rating.

 

[dickey moe]

A midget can kill a baby but has no chance against a real person.....That is my only reference I thought it was pretty straightforward.

 

[Banger]

The idea that Manning has lost shootouts in the post season is a complete falacy.

In Colt losses in the playoffs with Manning at QB the Colts have never scored more than 18 points.

Manning has 3 TD's vs. 7 Int's in all six of his playoff losses. Also, the Colts have averaged ~11 points in those six losses.

Basically, this is not a "Dan Fouts" situation where his team gets outscored. In playoff games where Manning has lost, his team has not scored enough to win, regardless of what the defense has done.

Lying again I see.

Manning then went on to lead his team to a 41-10 victory over the Denver Broncos in the wildcard playoff round, his first playoff win after 3 first round losses in the past 3 seasons. He completed 22 of 26 passes for 377 yards and 5 touchdowns in the game, earning him a perfect 158.3 Passer Rating. Then in the divisional playoffs, Manning led the Colts to a 38-31 win over the Kansas City Chiefs in the first puntless game in NFL playoff history, throwing for 304 yards and 3 touchdowns, and earning an impressive 138.8 passer rating.

He's handpicking the loss stats.

 

[x260bm]

I think you miss my point. Look at Jamal Anderson, Jamal Lewis, Ricky Williams, etc. Getting so many touches in a season is not a good thing. Sure, it's entirely possible/probable that he'll be fine for the next 1,2,3, or 4 seasons. However, in dynasty leagues, things go from "great" to "bad" in one stroke if a player falls off and it can take YEARS to recover. Something like the 1.01 rookie pick (Peterson) and a couple starters would definitely be worth consideration, and would certainly seem like a reasonable get.

No I see the point. And the sky isn't falling.Lewis had 387 carries, and over next 3 years had pretty much 1,100 total yards each year. The offense was bad, and he's always been injury prone. Lewis is also a much bigger back, and then tend to have a much shorter life span.

Ricky Williams, how did he implode? He quit football. Then got suspended for a year. This was because of his 383 carries in 2002?

Jamal Anderson is a decent comparison.

But you can mention Emmitt Smith. He had over 400 carries 4 times (including playoffs).

Walter Payton had 420 touches in 1985 (at a much older age) and came back with two huge years in 86/87. 1986 again close to 400 touches.

Dickerson started his career with 420 touches! 400 in his 2nd year. 420+ in his 4th year.

LT had 372 touches and 79 catches his 2nd year. 450 touches? Good move by whoever "dumped" LT after that. If you add in LTs catches, he's had 4-5 years 400+ touches.

Plus LJ didn't play a ton in college. He only started one year. So in his pro/college career, LJ has started 2 full years. And we should dump him cause he had 400 carries? Cmon.

LT has 1200 more touches, but no one seems to be trying to "dump" LT.

Please do your homework. http://www.fftoday.com/articles/special/06_rb_heavy.htm

I will highlight a few things.

In summary, here are some important points to get from this study:

* Only 5.4% of the time in recent history has there been a heavy workload season. (42 RB seasons out of 771).

* Only 16.7% of those 42 seasons has a RB met or exceeded his f/carries after reaching that magical number of 370 f/carries.

* 47.6% of these RB missed games after hitting that threshold the previous year.

* 23.8% of these RB’s missed at least 4 games opposed to the entire range of starting quality RBs in a ten-year period that only missed a game 36.7% of the time.

A heavy season in the article is defined as 370 f/carries where a rush is 1 and a reception is .5.The history says LJ is either going to 1. break down next year or 2. have a significant drop in his fantasy numbers 10-30%.

If I were in a dynasty league and had him I would be trying to trade him in the offseason.

That is faulty logic in my opinion. You could make the same argument for WRs with over 100 receptions. Marvin Harrison has never been the same since his 143 catch season. He has not caught 100 balls in a season since then. Isaac Bruce had 119 in 1995 and has not had a year where he catches more than 90 since. Larry Fitzgerald got hurt this year because he had 103 receptions last year. The same thing happened to Steve Smith. Randy Moss had 111 receptions 2003 and has not been the same player since. Hines Ward has been in steady decline after he caught 112 balls. The same is true with Eric Moulds after he caught 100. Keyshawn Johnson, Rod Smith, Troy Brown, Marty Booker, Ed McCaffrey, Carl Pickens, Robert Brooks, Brett Perriman, Eric Metcalf, Terance Mathis, Sterling Sharpe, the list goes on and on. It is also true for TEs. Tony Gonzalez hasn’t been the same since his 102 reception year. How about RBs? LT had a huge drop in receptions after his 100 catch year. Judging from the past you had better trade Andre Johnson as soon as you can. He’s doomed. It also works for QBs with 35 touchdown passes. See Manning, Culpepper, Warner, Beuerlein, Young, etc.The bottom line is that a RB needs carries to have a monster season. It makes sense that a player is not going set career highs every year he plays. It is true that RBs get hurt more often after they set career highs. It is also true that they are getting older. It makes sense that players gets hurt more later in their careers. It is because you are more likely to get hurt as you age. RBs take a pounding even when they are not carrying the ball. A lot of people underestimate what it is like trying to block a LB running full speed at your QB. A lot of times they get whacked pretty good on play action too. When you see guys on TV talking about how playing RB is hard on their bodies, they are not just talking about carrying the ball. Even guys that don’t play take a beating from the first teamers in practice.

 

[urbanhack]

What's the record for rushing in a playoff game?

 

[Bri]

Only way KC has a shot is this gameplan:LJ leftLJ up the gutBennett to the leftLJ to the rightBennett to the rightabout 50 combined times......and we have a chance.

Replying again.Ya know everytime I see the Colts I still see Dungy and expect more from their D than they produce. One day, I'm going to be right. That guy has a great defensive mind, I don't get it. I will go out on a limb(only a little) and say they can't be THAT predictable(50) against a Dungy D. Maybe 30-40 As a KC fan you're looking at the matchup already probably, do you do that dance in your head with Dungy and coaching D?

Hats off to Dungy, sorry Kev better luck next year