KellysHeroes
Footballguy
and he complains about his usage 
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LJ breaks record for most ru attempts a season (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter KellysHeroes
- Start date
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Couch Potato
Footballguy
He'll turn 28 during the season next year. While that's not old, it's not young for a RB either.Yup, it definitely makes me nervous. One positive is that he's pretty young and built pretty solidly. But over the past season and a half he's had a ton of carries.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
You got to remember, he maybe turning 28.. but he spent the first 3 yrs of his career behind Priest and this was his first full yr, so hes still "fresh". The good thing is that they are out of the playoffs.. so he has all off-season to rest...I kind of hope that he falls in next yrs draft; I wouldn't mind picking him up w/ 1.6 or so..He'll turn 28 during the season next year. While that's not old, it's not young for a RB either.Yup, it definitely makes me nervous. One positive is that he's pretty young and built pretty solidly. But over the past season and a half he's had a ton of carries.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
I'm not one who believes in the 'still fresh' theory. Bodies age and slow down, regardless of carries. I pay attention to age, not total career carries, when anticipating a RB's decline. Others can feel free to believe what they want, but my mind is made up on the issue.I'm not suggesting he's about to begin serious decline at 27-28, only that he's had his peak physical years (24-26 for a RB). At 28 he'll be a little less than at 27, then at 29 the decline will begin to steepen.You got to remember, he maybe turning 28.. but he spent the first 3 yrs of his career behind Priest and this was his first full yr, so hes still "fresh". The good thing is that they are out of the playoffs.. so he has all off-season to rest...I kind of hope that he falls in next yrs draft; I wouldn't mind picking him up w/ 1.6 or so..He'll turn 28 during the season next year. While that's not old, it's not young for a RB either.Yup, it definitely makes me nervous. One positive is that he's pretty young and built pretty solidly. But over the past season and a half he's had a ton of carries.
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KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Yeah.. I have to agree.. LJ only has 2; maybe 3 good yrs in him if this usage is a common thing...after 29; he will decline w/ 380 too 400+ carries a yr...
PizzaDeliveryGuy
extra sausage
I'm going to be looking to move him this off season after we find out a little more of the movements that will happen. In a 16 team 1 keeper I'm thinking along the lines of MJD and an early round pick or the same pick and MB3. Again this all comes down to what next year's roles will be for these players.
giantdogs92
Footballguy
And Steven Jackson still outscored him this year...
freelander
Footballguy
I thought KC made it in if SF wins... 
I'm in a one player keeper league and will be keeping LJ (again) but will likely draft accordingly for RB depth in 2007.
I'm in a one player keeper league and will be keeping LJ (again) but will likely draft accordingly for RB depth in 2007.
joffer
Footballguy
90 recs didn't hurt
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Not accurate.There have only been 4 previous 400+ carry seasons:
410 Jamal Anderson Atlanta (1998)407 James Wilder Tampa Bay (1984)404 Eric Dickerson LA Rams (1986)404 Eddie George Tennessee (2000)Anderson then tore his ACL in the 2nd game the following year, and the year after that had 1406 total yards and 6 TDs (in line with career norms prior to the 400 carry season). He only played one more year, at age 29.Wilder had 1641 total yards and 10 TDs the following year.
Dickerson barely played in 3 games for the Rams the next year due to a contract dispute, and was traded to the Colts. In that strike-shortened year, in his 9 games with the Colts he had 1144 total yards and 5 TDs (16-game equivalent would be 2034 yards and 9 TDs), then the year after that had 2036 total yards and 15 TDs, and the year after that he had 1522 total yards and 8 TDs.
George had 300+ carries each of the next 3 seasons, including a 1420 total yard, 14 TD season.
Since 400+ carry seasons have only occurred 5 times now in NFL history, it isn't reasonable to expect a RB to repeat those numbers, so yes a decline from the 400 carry year would be expected. But to say they don't do well the rest of their careers is not accurate. Also, as to the injury to Anderson, there is just too little statistical data (just 4 occurrences) to determine whether the great amount of carries has anything to do with it or whether the injury was just part of being a starting RB.
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RoosterScott
Footballguy
Somebody give us the stats the following year with RBs who get 400 plus carries. I still hope LT makes the cover of Madden!
jonessed
Footballguy
They do.I thought KC made it in if SF wins...I'm in a one player keeper league and will be keeping LJ (again) but will likely draft accordingly for RB depth in 2007.
bonesman
Footballguy
They are.They do.I thought KC made it in if SF wins...
my man otis
Footballguy
so what. let's take out sjax's TDs while we're at it.or only runs of 3 yards or less.it is what it is - sjax > LJ in 2006 and should be drafted before LJ in 2007.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
KC @ the Indy next week........... 
LJ for 30+ attempts
Whats the record for attempts in the playoffs??? Because he might own that one next...
LJ for 30+ attempts
Whats the record for attempts in the playoffs??? Because he might own that one next...
