Every year, fantasy prognosticators n00b and pro use last years stats to rank players, make projections, argue with their buddies. Now we all know this is an inexact science at best, because every year player movement, scheme changes, staff overhauls, Kardishians, etc all take place. And last years correlation is not this years causation.
But I can't help but feel that there were indicators from the end of the each previous season that would indicate the next seasons improvement and declines for team defenses against both the pass and run that would greatly enhance are ability to project offensive performance, at least in games involving those teams that showed remarkable movement either way. And this could be significant. Everybody that drafted WRs hoping to get 2 games against Detroits 32nd ranked pass D last year probably came away slightly disappointed to get two games against a middle of the road pass D. Likewise owners who avoided Bengals running back matchups in the fantasy playoffs based on 2009 rankings most likely wished they'd hadn't.
Anybody know of a study that has crunched all this data and where it might exist if so? If I had the time, I'd love to do it but the schedule doesn't allow for a couple weeks with 32 NFL.com tabs and 32 spreadsheets open running functions. Thanks in advance for any leads in the right direction.
But I can't help but feel that there were indicators from the end of the each previous season that would indicate the next seasons improvement and declines for team defenses against both the pass and run that would greatly enhance are ability to project offensive performance, at least in games involving those teams that showed remarkable movement either way. And this could be significant. Everybody that drafted WRs hoping to get 2 games against Detroits 32nd ranked pass D last year probably came away slightly disappointed to get two games against a middle of the road pass D. Likewise owners who avoided Bengals running back matchups in the fantasy playoffs based on 2009 rankings most likely wished they'd hadn't.
Anybody know of a study that has crunched all this data and where it might exist if so? If I had the time, I'd love to do it but the schedule doesn't allow for a couple weeks with 32 NFL.com tabs and 32 spreadsheets open running functions. Thanks in advance for any leads in the right direction.
