Lost in the shadow of Peyton (1 Viewer)

[Shutout]

Of course, every story in Indy begins and ends with Peyton Manning right now, as it should.

But what about Reggie Wayne? He is a FA and because of his age, its hard to think that he will return to Indy if Peyton is not there. And because of his age, its easy for people to dismiss him as a fantasy factor.

Actually, especially since its Wayne, its easy to dismiss him because even over the past 3-4 years when Wayne has been as steady and consistent as you will ever see in a perennial top 7-10 WR, people have commonly left him out of the annual top Wr discussions.

But Wayne is still a very good football player. He hasn't missed a game in 9 years. He can run very precise routes, he is a smart football player and, by and large, he lacks the WR DIVA personality.

So what about Wayne's FF future?

Could he be a top 12-15 again? Where might he play? Is it reasonable to think he will fill the next Hines ward/Derrick Mason/Donald Driver role somewhere?

Would anyone argue that if it were Wayne instead of, say, Ocho Cinco, in NEw england, that he would have very good FF value for a while?

Or maybe he goes to Houston.

Or maybe he follows Peyton to Arizona or Miami, etc.

In general, are people more willing to call this the tailing off for Wayne or is the consensus more that he is still starting more often than not in people's FF lineups next season?

 

[Insein]

Seems Baltimore would be a good fit as usual. Wayne can still stretch the field and Balt will be looking to add another weapon to make a run at the bowl. They seem to like the veteran guys. If they have the cap space (which I don't know) then he'd probably fit well there.

 

[Banger]

He could be a decent 2nd fiddle guy but I was low on him coming into this year and he did nothing to alter my expectations for him going forward. Granted it all depends on the situation that he's placed in but when I draft my wr's if there are two guys side by side ranked 19 and 20 and one is a vet on the way down and the other is a Dez Bryant (young upside) on the way up, I almost always go for the upside over the potentially stable/declining vet.

 

[Touchdown There]

Colts free agents: http://www.kffl.com/static/nfl/features/freeagents/fa.php?option=By+Team&y=2012#ixzz1kZl31jU2

Notables on the list:

Wayne

Garcon

Diem

Saturday

Mathis

A team can normally re-sign a good percentage of their free agents. With the unique situation the Colts are in this year, most of these guys are probably gone. I would bet that Saturday and one guy between Garcon and Wayne end up playing with Manning.

 

[scothawk]

I sold Wayne last summer for Manningham and a 2012 first that will be 1.07.

I'm pretty happy with that. Not sure I get that value today.

 

[yellowdog]

I'll take him on the Bengals squad.

 

[Banger]

I'll take him on the Bengals squad.

say he goes there....from an NFL perspective I think he'd be a decent upgrade but fantasy wise lining up across from one of the best wr talents in the game I can't see him having a significant fantasy impact.

 

[Luke Skywalker]

Would not be surprised to see him end up on the Saints, especially if they ended up losing both Colston and Meachem.

 

[General Tso]

Wayne was terrible this year. Not just bad, but terrible. He was healthy the whole season too. Garçon just about tripled his production. I dropped Wayne from my fantasy team midway through the season and he went unclaimed for the rest of the year. That's how bad he was.

I know - you'll tell me he didn't have a QB throwing to him. But that alone doesn't explain how wretched he was. Personally I think the guy is toast.

 

[Dreamer]

Wayne was terrible this year. Not just bad, but terrible. He was healthy the whole season too. Garçon just about tripled his production. I dropped Wayne from my fantasy team midway through the season and he went unclaimed for the rest of the year. That's how bad he was.I know - you'll tell me he didn't have a QB throwing to him. But that alone doesn't explain how wretched he was. Personally I think the guy is toast.

Wat?

 

[FavreCo]

At 33, his best days are behind him. Could still be a #2 but without a top QB, he's now just a ham and egger.

 

[eric rymer]

Carolina has been struggling to find a #2. Could be a nice landing spot.

 

[Shutout]

Carolina has been struggling to find a #2. Could be a nice landing spot.

That would be interesting. Seems like there are a number of viable spots for him.I can't imagine that Wayne didn't get picked up for half a season in any league unless its really small/small rosters/redraft or something. I know a lot of people probably didn't actually watch a lot of Indy games from start to finish this year but from what I saw, I didn't see a visibly poorer Reggie Wayne. He still has some speed. He still runs the routes, etc. It just seemed like he was constantly overthrown, underthrown, etc and I attributed that to maybe the backup QBs had a better chemistry with Garcon. I guess in a different way of thinking, what I ask to myself when deciding on him is something like "If he and Manning line up on a team next season together, is he going to produce?" and I think that is a yes. So, if he ends up with a Brees or Brady or Manning or any other really good QB, I could see a nice year.

 

[grateful zed]

manning, saturday and wayne to any team with a defense and rb depth = contender.

bring TO on board to distract the other teams and score tds. ex-indy chemistry will keep his antics in check. owens is ready to take football seriously.

 

[eric rymer]

manning, saturday and wayne to any team with a defense and rb depth = contender.

bring TO on board to distract the other teams and score tds. ex-indy chemistry will keep his antics in check. owens is ready to take football seriously.

That's because he is broke....http://blogs.ajc.com/business-beat/2012/01/25/t-o-broke-lonely-in-hell/?cxntfid=blogs_business_beat

 

[netnalp]

Also what happens to Collie and Garcon with Luck at the helm. Can't expect them to get numbers like they did with Peyton, but will Luck prefer Garcon over Collie? or Vice Versa?

 

[az_prof]

I see Wayne as a "get anything you can for him" guy, even a third round rookie pick. He will probably play one more year somewhere, but as a supporting player. At his age, with the year he just had, no one is going to sign him to be a featured WR and I doubt he will even be a WR2 for most teams. Some WRs make their QBs better and sometimes great QBs can make good WRs look great. I think it is the latter for Wayne. He was a good Wr who had a great career because he played in a great passing system with a HOF QB. But he doesn't have the skill to play at a high level into his mid 30s.

 

[placebo]

You know your QB's suck when Dan Orlovsky is an upgrade. Wayne can still get separation and is technically sound. He'd make a great #2 for a contending team. He did average 8.16 targets, 5.5 receptions, 71.67 yards with 3 TD's in the last 6 games, which is WR2 #'s. Just needs someone to get him the ball.

 

[Black&Gold]

Do most of you realize who the throwing him the ball this year? Nobody. Depending on his landing spot, he could be golden for another couple years. Saints...for example. Top 15 numbers.

 

[Bayhawks]

Wayne was terrible this year. Not just bad, but terrible. He was healthy the whole season too. Garçon just about tripled his production. I dropped Wayne from my fantasy team midway through the season and he went unclaimed for the rest of the year. That's how bad he was.

Garcon-70/947/6Wayne-75/960/4

Not exactly tripled.

Indy threw for less than 3000 yards, and only 14 TDs. If wayne goes to a team with a decent QB (even as a WR2) I think 1000 yards and 6 TDs is a safe projection. He's no longer a top-10 WR, but he could definitely be a FF WR2.

 

[FavreCo]

Also what happens to Collie and Garcon with Luck at the helm. Can't expect them to get numbers like they did with Peyton, but will Luck prefer Garcon over Collie? or Vice Versa?

The guy to speculate on is the guy the draft this year along with Luck.

 

[ZWK]

Wayne has been in a gradual decline for a few years, but he's still a good receiver. At some point he'll hit the wall, but that's probably not for a couple more years. Until then his production is going to depend on his QB and his role in the offense - if he follows Manning (and Manning plays like Manning) he could easily be a borderline WR1/WR2. In a decent situation, maybe a mid-level WR2.

The drop from 111/1355/6 in 2010 to 75/960/4 in 2011 looks like a huge decline, but that was almost all on the QB and the offensive system, not on Wayne. Wayne wasn't actually that amazing in 2010, just on a team with an elite QB that led the NFL in passing attempts (679). And he wasn't actually that mediocre in 2011, just on a team with lousy QBs and a below average number of attempts (534). Wayne was just keeping pace with the rest of the offense - as a share of the team's offensive production, his 2011 was very similar to his 2010. Here are Wayne's numbers as percentages of the Colts' total passing att/comp/yd/td:

Wayne in 2010: 25.9% of att, 24.7% of comp, 28.8% of yd, 18.2% of td

Wayne in 2011: 24.7% of att, 24.8% of comp, 29.8% of yd, 28.6% of td

But you can see Wayne's gradual decline if you look at his yards per target over his career:

year yd/tar

2001 6.9

2002 9.8

2003 7.6

2004 9.3

2005 8.3

2006 9.0

2007 9.3

2008 8.4

2009 8.5

2010 7.7

2011 7.3

 

[ADP]

Wayne to Miami alongside Marshall would be good NFL/Fantasy place for him to land..especially with Flynn likely to end up there. Since he played ball in Miami, very possible.

Other than that....maybe SF tries to get stronger by adding him as a weapon and....

darkhorse......Houston across from AJ. Would be money spot.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

So what's the status on Harrison's HOF prospects and has Wayne reached what Harrison did?

 

[Luke Skywalker]

I know a lot of people probably didn't actually watch a lot of Indy games from start to finish this year but from what I saw, I didn't see a visibly poorer Reggie Wayne.

Me either and I can honestly say I watched at least 12 Colts games this year (I live in Indy, wife is a huge Colts fan).He looks fine. Painter just never looked his way. Seemed like half the passes he threw were some kind of screen to Garcon. I'm not worried about Reggie Wayne at all. Guy has at least 3 more good years in him.

 

[General Tso]

Wayne was terrible this year. Not just bad, but terrible. He was healthy the whole season too. Garçon just about tripled his production. I dropped Wayne from my fantasy team midway through the season and he went unclaimed for the rest of the year. That's how bad he was.

Garcon-70/947/6Wayne-75/960/4

Not exactly tripled.

Indy threw for less than 3000 yards, and only 14 TDs. If wayne goes to a team with a decent QB (even as a WR2) I think 1000 yards and 6 TDs is a safe projection. He's no longer a top-10 WR, but he could definitely be a FF WR2.

Wayne had a couple good games to end the year so it doesn't look as bad as it was. Basically from weeks 2-10 Wayne's BEST game was 77 yards and 0 TD's. Think about that.I'm sorry, but I don't care who the Quarterback is, no WR2 ever goes through a stretch that bad and still remains a WR2. The NFL is too competitive. There's a reason Wayne was so bad this year. He's just not that good anymore. He's got great hands but he's way too slow and needs a precision QB like Manning to get him the ball. He'll be a bad pick in many a draft next summer.

 

[netnalp]

Wayne was terrible this year. Not just bad, but terrible. He was healthy the whole season too. Garçon just about tripled his production. I dropped Wayne from my fantasy team midway through the season and he went unclaimed for the rest of the year. That's how bad he was.

Garcon-70/947/6Wayne-75/960/4

Not exactly tripled.

Indy threw for less than 3000 yards, and only 14 TDs. If wayne goes to a team with a decent QB (even as a WR2) I think 1000 yards and 6 TDs is a safe projection. He's no longer a top-10 WR, but he could definitely be a FF WR2.

Wayne had a couple good games to end the year so it doesn't look as bad as it was. Basically from weeks 2-10 Wayne's BEST game was 77 yards and 0 TD's. Think about that.I'm sorry, but I don't care who the Quarterback is, no WR2 ever goes through a stretch that bad and still remains a WR2. The NFL is too competitive. There's a reason Wayne was so bad this year. He's just not that good anymore. He's got great hands but he's way too slow and needs a precision QB like Manning to get him the ball. He'll be a bad pick in many a draft next summer.

I think it's premature to say Wayne is done. Steve Smith is only 7 months younger and after going 46/554/2 on 100 targets people said he was done and he had 79/1394/7 on 129 targets this year. If Wayne stays with Indy, it's possible he turns into Luck's safety valve or go-to-guy. Wayne had 75/960/4 with 132 targets. That's 57% catch rate with really bad QB play. He had catch percentages of 63% and 67% the previous two years with Peyton. With how bad the team played without Peyton, the drop in % seems reasonable.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

this depends on situation.

I dont think a bad spot for him will mean any increase over his production this year.

 

[jmo87usc]

I don't see any reason why Wayne can't stay fantasy relevant for the next 3 years. He's a better WR than it showed last year. That team was a mess. Obviously he is getting older and a change of scenery is likely. I can't imagine he would go to a bad situation just for money, but who knows.

When looking for a past comparison, a guy like Mushin Muhammed comes to mind. And I think Wayne is more talented than he ever was. Wayne has always avoided injury and as long as he can maintain that, I think WR2/WR3 is where he is for the next three years. Depending on the size of your league.

 

[3nOut]

I think he would be a really good fit in Houston but I doubt he goes somewhere within the division.

NFL= WR2

FF = WR3

 

[Bayhawks]

Wayne was terrible this year. Not just bad, but terrible. He was healthy the whole season too. Garçon just about tripled his production. I dropped Wayne from my fantasy team midway through the season and he went unclaimed for the rest of the year. That's how bad he was.

Garcon-70/947/6Wayne-75/960/4

Not exactly tripled.

Indy threw for less than 3000 yards, and only 14 TDs. If wayne goes to a team with a decent QB (even as a WR2) I think 1000 yards and 6 TDs is a safe projection. He's no longer a top-10 WR, but he could definitely be a FF WR2.

Wayne had a couple good games to end the year so it doesn't look as bad as it was. Basically from weeks 2-10 Wayne's BEST game was 77 yards and 0 TD's. Think about that.

That's "interesting" logic. Let's apply it to Garcon.Garcon had a couple of good games here & there during the season, so it doesn't look as bad as it was.

If you ignore Garcon's "couple good games," his BEST game was 82 yards and 0 TD's. Think about that.

Your original comment was wrong. Tring to selectivly cherry-pick what games you will or won't use only highlights that you are wrong.

 

[footballnerd]

we'll take 'em both, please....championship!

signed Niners

 

[johnnycakes]

If he has anything left in his tank, the Patriots may pick him up next year.

 

[Ballstein]

Wayne is as good as Manning made him.

 

[rct]

I don't see any reason why Wayne can't stay fantasy relevant for the next 3 years. He's a better WR than it showed last year. That team was a mess. Obviously he is getting older and a change of scenery is likely. I can't imagine he would go to a bad situation just for money, but who knows.

When looking for a past comparison, a guy like Mushin Muhammed comes to mind. And I think Wayne is more talented than he ever was. Wayne has always avoided injury and as long as he can maintain that, I think WR2/WR3 is where he is for the next three years. Depending on the size of your league.

I do, he turns 34 this year. You acknowledged he is getting older but 34 is the age that most WRs start an age related decline. Now if you believe he will be the exception, then, yes, he will stay fantasy relevant for the next 3 years, but I doubt it.

 

[Shutout]

Wayne was terrible this year. Not just bad, but terrible. He was healthy the whole season too. Garçon just about tripled his production. I dropped Wayne from my fantasy team midway through the season and he went unclaimed for the rest of the year. That's how bad he was.

Garcon-70/947/6Wayne-75/960/4

Not exactly tripled.

Indy threw for less than 3000 yards, and only 14 TDs. If wayne goes to a team with a decent QB (even as a WR2) I think 1000 yards and 6 TDs is a safe projection. He's no longer a top-10 WR, but he could definitely be a FF WR2.

Wayne had a couple good games to end the year so it doesn't look as bad as it was. Basically from weeks 2-10 Wayne's BEST game was 77 yards and 0 TD's. Think about that.I'm sorry, but I don't care who the Quarterback is, no WR2 ever goes through a stretch that bad and still remains a WR2. The NFL is too competitive. There's a reason Wayne was so bad this year. He's just not that good anymore. He's got great hands but he's way too slow and needs a precision QB like Manning to get him the ball. He'll be a bad pick in many a draft next summer.

I think it's premature to say Wayne is done. Steve Smith is only 7 months younger and after going 46/554/2 on 100 targets people said he was done and he had 79/1394/7 on 129 targets this year. If Wayne stays with Indy, it's possible he turns into Luck's safety valve or go-to-guy. Wayne had 75/960/4 with 132 targets. That's 57% catch rate with really bad QB play. He had catch percentages of 63% and 67% the previous two years with Peyton. With how bad the team played without Peyton, the drop in % seems reasonable.

That is what I was thinking..Steve Smith had that kind of down year in 2009. T.O. also did that year. Randy Moss had that type of year in Oakland. The common denominator in all three of those scenarios (and I am sure there are others people could recall) is the players played on teams with sub-par QB play and the team was going through a lot of changes.Its interesting to me that the first thing the doubters point to in this is age, and I understand that. But it seems to come along with "he is playing worse" and that is the part I do not see. I don't think he is. And while age is always a big deal, I think it is at least worth noting that Reggie is pretty uncommon in somehting that he has working for him in that he has been one of the most durable players in the league for a long, long time, and he is known to take his work seriously. He runs very good routes, and he has not been, for a long time, a guy that has based his game's success on speed. So, for a guy that is older, granted, I think it bodes well for him that he is durable and runs very good routes.

I'm hoping he follows Manning somewhere. I think that would be the best real life and fantasy success for both of them. Especially if Manning came back as MANNING and they just let him run the show. I can't imagine anyone other than Wayne would be the most liely to benefit from that.