Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
180.3 FBG FPs.That would be the #13 RB last year in EOY points - above McGahee's output in 16 games last year.He's having an all-time greatest stretch of games for FF RBs.
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LT the last 6 Weeks (Edit 4 to 6 weeks) (1 Viewer)
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Islander
Footballguy
When you go from injured in 2005 to healthy in 2006, what has a good chance of happening in 2006? (LT)When you go from top O-Line in 2005 to key O-Line losses in 2006, what has a good chance of happening in 2006? (SA, LJ)
This has nothing to do with who will win the SB.
I am just saying that in my humble opinion, people who did not have LT at #1 were not dumb, but they relied far too much on 2005 stats.
GregR_2
Footballguy
It depends on whether you want to go by FP per game played, or FP per season's worth of games. OJ had the best fantasy season by a RB in 1975, though it was a 14 game season. But then Priest put up a better per-game average also in 14 games, but it was a 16 game season.I think a better question though isn't just the magnitude of LT's points, but is he outscoring his peers more than OJ outscored his. It's not as impressive if he scores 400 if the other RBs available are scoring 200, vs if OJ scored the 14 game equivalent of 400 but his peers were scoring in the 160s. And I don't know the answer to that, but that's what I'd consider the truest measure of how good of a fantasy season was it.
CalBear
Footballguy
Tomlinson this year is averaging 17.5 VBD points per game; Simpson averaged 20.1 in 1975. However, that's not an apples-to-apples comparison, because there are more teams now; there were only 26 in 1975, which means that the baseline player as calculated by profootballreference (RB#24) was one of the weakest players in the league, whereas today he's above the bottom quartile. Adjusting the baseline for league size, if you compare OJ to RB#20 he still had 19.6 VBD points per game, which is still quite good, and somewhat better than Tomlinson this year.However, OJ only scored 4.4 points per game more than the #2 RB (Chuck Foreman), while Tomlinson is scoring 5.3 points per game more than the #2 RB (Larry Johnson). In both cases, the #2 RB is way above the #3 RB, by approximately the same amount (slightly more this year than in 1975).By any measure, Tomlinson's season so far is on par with some of the best seasons in NFL history. We'll see if he can keep it up; Larry Johnson's last 9 games of 2005 were pretty close to Tomlinson's start this year, but 9 games are not the same as 16.GregR said:
Lemmiwinks
Footballguy
Very nice work.Let's call a spade a spade here, the guy is amazing, and we are watching one of the top running backs of all time before our eyes. LT's skills are second to none in the league right now, so the potential was always there for him to have a #1 fantasy type season.
If i remember back to the preseason, the biggest knock that I had heard about Tomlinson is that he's going to have a "rookie" QB at the helm this year, so we should temper expecatations. There's a lot of good posts in this thread, but we have to give a little credit to Mr. Rivers here. His maturity and ability to lead the offence as if he's a 10 year vet has made LT's life a little easier than most in the preseason thought it was going to be.
That said, let's all enjoy the ride here, the man is amazing and an absolute joy to watch.
If i remember back to the preseason, the biggest knock that I had heard about Tomlinson is that he's going to have a "rookie" QB at the helm this year, so we should temper expecatations. There's a lot of good posts in this thread, but we have to give a little credit to Mr. Rivers here. His maturity and ability to lead the offence as if he's a 10 year vet has made LT's life a little easier than most in the preseason thought it was going to be.
That said, let's all enjoy the ride here, the man is amazing and an absolute joy to watch.
Lemmiwinks
Footballguy
Rivers has been outstanding this season. His maturation does not allow teams to key on his RB. Consider, also, that his receiving corps (aside from Gates of course) are probably the worst 1-2 in the NFL. Incidentally, I have SD as my eventual SB champion. Once they get Merriman back...
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Right now, when the Chargers get inside the 10, Tomlinson is like a magnet to the end-zone. It's amazing watching him right now.
I just hope he doesn't falter in weeks 14-16 (my playoffs).
I just hope he doesn't falter in weeks 14-16 (my playoffs).
Banger
Footballguy
That's true. He's got one of the best noses for the endzone that I've ever seen. I can't remember the last time the Chargers had the ball inside the 5 and he had 3 shots at it and got snuffed. Even though the defense knows it's coming he has the vision, cutback ability, patience, burst, body lean, etc. to exploit the smallest cracks and seemingly walk in on most plays.
Gamblor
Footballguy
When your team still has a pro bowl QB which helps take the pressure off the running game? (SA, LJ)When your team changes from a pro bowl caliber QB, to a QB being a teams starter for the first time in his career and no proven track record? (LT)Obviously LT has been the correct choice here in hindsight. There are many factors and correct reasons why SA and LJ would have been just as appropriate a #1 pick.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
In 2002 LT showed that it didn't matter if a QB with no NFL game experience was behind center.
Wingnut
Footballguy
He ALMOST had a 5th TD Sunday...if not for that false start penalty, Im sure he would have got it.
1-8-CIN8 (4:03) L.Tomlinson right guard to CIN 2 for 6 yards (L.Johnson).
2-2-CIN2 (3:18) PENALTY on SD-M.McNeill, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 2 - No Play.
2-7-CIN7 (3:18) L.Tomlinson right tackle to CIN 5 for 2 yards (D.Peko; R.Geathers).
3-5-CIN5 (2:37) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass short left to B.Manumaleuna for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [M.Williams].
1-8-CIN8 (4:03) L.Tomlinson right guard to CIN 2 for 6 yards (L.Johnson).
2-2-CIN2 (3:18) PENALTY on SD-M.McNeill, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 2 - No Play.
2-7-CIN7 (3:18) L.Tomlinson right tackle to CIN 5 for 2 yards (D.Peko; R.Geathers).
3-5-CIN5 (2:37) (Shotgun) P.Rivers pass short left to B.Manumaleuna for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [M.Williams].
Gamblor
Footballguy
Not suggesting thats the rule. Pointing out there are other factors to consider which wouldnt lead everyone to have LT as the clear #1 preseason - as the previous poster seems to suggest.
Islander
Footballguy
Yes, the uncertainty surrounding the QB was a minus. But a star RB playing injured with a good QB will not be as productive as a healthy star RB with an inexperienced QB that might or might not pan out. For SA and LJ, playing with an established QB was not a change from 2005. The only changes affecting them all went into the negative column.Of course LT was not the clear #1, otherwise, everybody would have ranked him #1 which was not the case. I do think however that he should have been the consensus #1. Don't take this as meaning "I was right, you were wrong". I have been wrong on many other things before.
This just was not one of them. I was very confident with LT at #1 overall and was surprised in the preseason to see so many people with LT at #3, sometimes even #4 behind P Manning.
CalBear
Footballguy
Tomlinson has 1300 total yards and 19 total TDs (including the pass) in 9 games. That's pretty amazing. However, Larry Johnson in the last 9 games of 2005 had over 1600 total yards and 17 total TDs, which is just as amazing a stretch.
On Tomlinson's side, LJ had 289 touches in that time frame, while LT has just 236. LJ's workload was ridiculous (no one has ever had 500 touches in a season, 289 in 9 projects out to 513 in 16), while Tomlinson's is only huge (236 in 9 projects out to 420 in 16). 420 touches would be in the top-20 season workloads of all time, but it's certainly not unattainable. Still, if I had to project a number of touches for LT from here out, it would be somewhat lower than 26 per game he's currently averaging; it only takes a couple of blowout games to bring that average down. Nevertheless, I think he has a good shot at breaking the record for RB fantasy points in a season.
On Tomlinson's side, LJ had 289 touches in that time frame, while LT has just 236. LJ's workload was ridiculous (no one has ever had 500 touches in a season, 289 in 9 projects out to 513 in 16), while Tomlinson's is only huge (236 in 9 projects out to 420 in 16). 420 touches would be in the top-20 season workloads of all time, but it's certainly not unattainable. Still, if I had to project a number of touches for LT from here out, it would be somewhat lower than 26 per game he's currently averaging; it only takes a couple of blowout games to bring that average down. Nevertheless, I think he has a good shot at breaking the record for RB fantasy points in a season.
This is true. It's also the case, however, that outscoring one's peers by X PPG is more impressive over 16 games than it is over 14 games. (If this is not immediately obvious, do a reductio absurdum and note that Frank Gore was outscoring the #2 RB by more than 8 PPG this year after one game.)
Synthesizer
Footballguy
So over the next 4 games, Tomlinson only needs 740 yards and 1 TD to match LJ's 9 game run from last year.
Eviloutsider
Footballguy
Can somebody tell me this, does LT ever take a hit? He seems so fluid but I dont get to see the games much up here in WI and was wondering if he takes big shots on a daily basis.
He takes some pretty nasty hits at the bottom of the pile after the play is over in games against the Raiders.Other than that, I don't remember ever seeing him get lit up.
The Man Who Met Andy Griffith
Footballguy
I'm not sure why you are trying to create a ####ing match.FWIW I had LT #2 behind LJ. I had LT #1 last year because I thought Priest had a 50% chance of finishing the season by week 13; otherwise I would have had Priest #1.My point was that LT was a reasonable choice at #1 this year, but not the only choice. Both players had some uncertainty going into this season--Roaf, Brees, Herm.BTW, LJ is doing 2 points better (PPG) than LT did in any year in his illustrious career prior to this one, so I don't feel too bad about ranking LJ #1. It turns out LT is having a career year to end all career years, and I'm happy for him--and for you, who had the unique prescience to draft him.
Banger
Footballguy
His career average is 25.89 touches/game. His LOW for a season is 390 touches and his high is 451 so 420, although 30 touches higher than the last few years, is probably about where he'll end up.
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Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Don't forget his stiff arm and ability to break tackles - those were two features of his game I had not noticed as much until this year.I've watched him literaly remove a would be tackler's hand from the front of his body and shake the tackle off - all while running at full speed and protecting the ball. He's only fumbled twice this year and only lost one of those fumbles.
Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
I liked the stiff arm a couple of weeks ago that removed a tackler's helmet and knocked him to the ground. After which, Tomlinson sauntered into the endzone.
I'm a fellow midwestern that doesn't get to see my boy LT play much at all. With the few games that I've seen, I've never seen much of anything as far as a "big hit". It's probably because of the guy that he grew up watching and idolizing...Barry Sanders (If I'm remembering what I heard correctly) From what I've seen, LT rarely ever looks to bowl over somebody. He is more of a make you miss kind of guy. Though there have been a handful of times that I've seen him lower his head, and just battle ram it for a first down, or a TD. I've even noticed with the few games that i've seen, that his post TD celebrations are very similar to Barry's. Which consists of running the ball over to the ref, or tossing it to the ref, and then running off the field. Nothing flashy, nothing fancy, just doing what he gets paid to do.
Islander
Footballguy
Sorry if it sounded like I wanted a ****ing match. It was not my intention. As I said earlier, I don't think it was dumb to rank LJ before LT. I just thought we had several clear reasons to go with LT, but LT was definitely not the consensus - they were almost a 50/50 vote in the preseason.
Banger
Footballguy
During this stretch he's faced the following teams (rush rank)...
@SF (15) - 21-71-4 / 7-64-0 37 pts
@KC (16) - 15-66-0 / 6-72-1 19 pts
St. Louis (31) - 25-183-2 / 3-57-1 41 pts
Clev (28) - 18-172-3 / 3-20-0 37 pts
@Cin (21) - 22-104-4 / 6-54-0 39 pts
@Den (5) - 20-105-3 / 3-74-1 41 pts
So by looking at the numbers and his corresponding stats, it doesn't seem to matter if he plays an awful run defense or a top defense, at home or on the road (4/6 games have been on the road). I think most have thought that LT has been the most talented back for the last few years but I wonder if it's a coincidence (I don't think it is) that this quantum leap in production coincides with Rivers maturation. If true, this could be "the norm" to a certain extent. Now you really have to pick your poison when facing the Chargers and you can't just say we're gonna stop the run because Rivers has shown that he can light up defenses when needed.
The scary thing is that next up on the hit list are Oak (27th v. run) and Buff (25th v. run). There's a good chance that we will be talking about the greatest 8 game run in a couple weeks.
@SF (15) - 21-71-4 / 7-64-0 37 pts
@KC (16) - 15-66-0 / 6-72-1 19 pts
St. Louis (31) - 25-183-2 / 3-57-1 41 pts
Clev (28) - 18-172-3 / 3-20-0 37 pts
@Cin (21) - 22-104-4 / 6-54-0 39 pts
@Den (5) - 20-105-3 / 3-74-1 41 pts
So by looking at the numbers and his corresponding stats, it doesn't seem to matter if he plays an awful run defense or a top defense, at home or on the road (4/6 games have been on the road). I think most have thought that LT has been the most talented back for the last few years but I wonder if it's a coincidence (I don't think it is) that this quantum leap in production coincides with Rivers maturation. If true, this could be "the norm" to a certain extent. Now you really have to pick your poison when facing the Chargers and you can't just say we're gonna stop the run because Rivers has shown that he can light up defenses when needed.
The scary thing is that next up on the hit list are Oak (27th v. run) and Buff (25th v. run). There's a good chance that we will be talking about the greatest 8 game run in a couple weeks.
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EdwardCat
Footballguy
The fear through this amazing stretch is that he will eventually come back to earth. However, it seems that he has reached his potential. He isn't getting lucky. He is performing at the level he's meant to perform at. Lee Evans got lucky. Tomlinson is just having his day at the office.
EdwardCat
Footballguy
Let's write him a letter and ask him.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
After seeing him this week, I think there are only 2 things that can stop him: injury and blow outs.
Injuries you can't predict.
I would like to think that if they start blowing teams out early enough, they'll rest him up for the playoffs, because Turner is very capable of closing out those types of games. As a Charger fan I'd like to see LaDainian as fresh as possible for the playoffs - which the coaching staff has tried to accomplish by limiting his preseason work AND limiting his practice work/intensity.
Injuries you can't predict.
I would like to think that if they start blowing teams out early enough, they'll rest him up for the playoffs, because Turner is very capable of closing out those types of games. As a Charger fan I'd like to see LaDainian as fresh as possible for the playoffs - which the coaching staff has tried to accomplish by limiting his preseason work AND limiting his practice work/intensity.
There was much ado made either 2 or 3 pre-seasons ago in an interview where LT had spent a good portion of his offseason talking with Marshall Faulk and learning when to take hits and when to try to avoid them. I specifically remember reading a quote of LT talking about how Marshall had counselled him to know when to fight for that extra yard and when to run out of bounds to avoid an unneccessary hit. Faulk had said that he wished he had learned such things earlier in his career and perhaps his knees would of lasted longer.
kingcoin1
Footballguy
My worry is what happens once he breaks the TD record? Also, if SD secures their playoff seed, will they take LT out of the game and not play him the entire 4th quarter or second half.
I'm hoping that Indy, Baltimore, and New England can continue to stay with SD so that they cannot afford to rest LT too much. It wouldn't hurt if SD could lose a game...
I'm hoping that Indy, Baltimore, and New England can continue to stay with SD so that they cannot afford to rest LT too much. It wouldn't hurt if SD could lose a game...
fsufan
Footballguy
At this point SD is fighting Indy for the #1 seed. I do not see one of them clinching that till week 16 or 17
bryhamm
Footballguy
Uhhh, they have not played week 14 games yet.what is the most FF points scored for a RB in a season?After today LT has 330 FF points, none PPR leagueSA had 34 FF points that yearW1- 20 W2-24 W3- byeW4- 9 W5- 6 W6- 37W7- 25
einstein2u
Footballguy
all i know is i play that ####er this week.....is time for an off night...no?
fsufan
Footballguy
I figured he had already Fed Denver in the A once, so he was going to do it againfixedUhhh, they have not played week 14 games yet.what is the most FF points scored for a RB in a season?After today LT has 330 FF points, none PPR leagueSA had 34 FF points that yearW1- 20 W2-24 W3- byeW4- 9 W5- 6 W6- 37
Wingnut
Footballguy
No.
