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LT2 (1 Viewer)

E

easy like sunday morning

Footballguy
I am in a dynasty league and have LT2. He has played at such a high level but did have the knee injury last year. He will be 29 in two months. I appreciate the 30 year old RB arguement. He is just such a special talent that-I am of the opinion that he has at least 3 more top end years. What are your thoughts on how many years he has at a top level?

 
Just drew the 1.3 pick in an initial dynasty draft and would be very excited if he was there for me. I think he will be the #1 RB again this year and fade a little, but still be a stud for the next couple of years.

And as you might be able to guess, I am a HUGE ADP fan. But I think as long as C.Taylor is there ADP might be limited on how dominant he will be this year. After this year though I think it will be ADP time.

 
Assuming that the knee injury is no big dea (no reason to think otherwise really)l I think that LT can be a top fantasy running back for several more seasons (At least 3 more). Age ain't nothing but a number.

 
I'm going with "3"

Given that many young RBs get injured and/or never live up to the hype, LT's still my #1 choice in a dynasty.

AD is VERY close, but his injury past is a concern.

 
The top RB, 1 or 2 more years.

A top RB, seems like he's in a special player category that gives off a feeling that he will break any so called rule about when he's supposed to wear down and be done.

There will be people that were wrong on when Sweetness, Emmitt, and Curtis were done being real leery about being wrong again.

BTW I think in time, Tomlinson will be thought of as the best FF RB ever. He'll go from seeming to clinch the playoffs for you the second you drafted him to being a steal because people think he's too old. The popularity of the hobby has risen dramatically while he's been "the man" and so years from now lots of people will reflect fondly upon him.

 
Rather than making a specific comment about LT2, let me make a general observation about RBs this age.

When the end comes, it comes swiftly and cruelly, and often when a lot of guys are still thinking that said RB still has a lot of life left.

A RB can be coasting along approaching 30, posting numerous consecutive 1,000 seasons, and it would seem reasonable to presume that the 1,000 seasons are going to continue for several years to come, but it will end very suddenly.

I say this having been guilty of thinking guys like Marshall Faulk still had a lot of life left in the tank at a similar age (I even traded Faulk for LT2 in 2002 - my worst ever trade).

 
Miro Z said:
Rather than making a specific comment about LT2, let me make a general observation about RBs this age.

When the end comes, it comes swiftly and cruelly, and often when a lot of guys are still thinking that said RB still has a lot of life left.

A RB can be coasting along approaching 30, posting numerous consecutive 1,000 seasons, and it would seem reasonable to presume that the 1,000 seasons are going to continue for several years to come, but it will end very suddenly.

I say this having been guilty of thinking guys like Marshall Faulk still had a lot of life left in the tank at a similar age (I even traded Faulk for LT2 in 2002 - my worst ever trade).
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Uh, wouldn't this have been a fantastic trade? :deadhorse:

 
I traded LT a month ago in my keeper league for #2 and #3 in the rook draft, so essentially 2 of McFadden, Mendenhall and Stewart.

I think LT will have a couple 15 TD years left and then maybe hit the skids.

 
Spike said:
Miro Z said:
Rather than making a specific comment about LT2, let me make a general observation about RBs this age.

When the end comes, it comes swiftly and cruelly, and often when a lot of guys are still thinking that said RB still has a lot of life left.

A RB can be coasting along approaching 30, posting numerous consecutive 1,000 seasons, and it would seem reasonable to presume that the 1,000 seasons are going to continue for several years to come, but it will end very suddenly.

I say this having been guilty of thinking guys like Marshall Faulk still had a lot of life left in the tank at a similar age (I even traded Faulk for LT2 in 2002 - my worst ever trade).
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Uh, wouldn't this have been a fantastic trade? :)
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Depends upon which side of the trade you were on, no? I think he was the one receiving Faulk, and frankly at that stage, Peter Faulk was washed up and Columbo was waaaaaaaaay old schtick. Who wants an aging, lazy-eyed actor at that point?
 
Just my opinion, but I think Norv finally runs the team into the ground, clashes with his franchise player and ruins his fantasy career. LT is aging and watching his chances for a ring slip away. If he thinks Norv is an obstacle to that, he'll become disgruntled and his performance will drop.

I'd rather be a year too early in predicting a drop-off in production than a year too late, so I'll say this is the year we see him tail off, and the Chargers miss the playoffs.

 
Still has the skills and is just as much an injury risk as the younger guys like SJax and ADP. He stays near the top for at least 2 more seasons and then the slide begins.

 
I think he has a couple of years left at least, but now more than ever the LT backup becomes a much more valuable player. At this age an injury he would play through at 24 is something that puts him on the sidelines for a couple of games. If you lock up his backup you can have the best running game in the league for the next few years....

 
One thing that hasn't really been mentioned: I think Norv is subtly shifting the offensive focus from Tomlinson to Rivers, or at least a near 50/50 split. I think he knows that there's limited millage left in LaDainian and that Phil is going to be the future. It's already started showing up in the playbook and with the personnel (particularly letting Lorenzo Neal go and acquiring Chambers). I think this will actually prolong LaDainian's productive years and give them more opportunities to win a championship. Just something to keep in mind going forward, LaDainian's FF numbers may slip a bit not necessarily due to lessening prowess but a different mix of plays in the offense.

 
Top 10 scrimmage leaders not named Jerry:

Emmitt played for 14 years

Walter played for 12 years

Marshall played for 11 years

Barry played for 9 years

Marcus played for 15 years

Curtis played for 10 years

Thurman played for 12 years

Tony played for 11 years

Tiki played for 9 years

That averages to 11 years. LT has played for 7 years. That leaves 4. I would remove the last year as the "twilight" year, and you wind up with 3.

Three more years, with an upside of four (given his streak of health and durability).

 
Chase Stuart said:
On another note, Tomlinson has somewhere around a one in four chance of breaking Emmitt's rushing record -- which means he has about a 25% chance of gaining another 7700 yards. Tomlinson's projected remaining rushing yards is 5,867.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog...5#comment-81506
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I would wager big against Tomlinson at 3-1 odds. I think his chances of catching Emmitt are much smaller than 25% since he intends to retire after 2011. How many yards would he need to average to catch Emmitt in just four more years? (ETA: He'd need to average 1926 rushing yards per season.)(There's always the chance that he'll change his mind, but he seems serious about it.)

 
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He's had a few chinks in the armour....mostly rib njuries...but those can happen to anyone...last years knee was the first major injury....now is the time the question must be asked if the major injuries start coming.

 
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easy like sunday morning said:
I am in a dynasty league and have LT2. He has played at such a high level but did have the knee injury last year. He will be 29 in two months. I appreciate the 30 year old RB arguement. He is just such a special talent that-I am of the opinion that he has at least 3 more top end years. What are your thoughts on how many years he has at a top level?
Click to expand...
Depends on what you mean by top level, but I think he will finish in the top-5 for three more years.
 
Gr00vus said:
One thing that hasn't really been mentioned: I think Norv is subtly shifting the offensive focus from Tomlinson to Rivers, or at least a near 50/50 split. I think he knows that there's limited millage left in LaDainian and that Phil is going to be the future. It's already started showing up in the playbook and with the personnel (particularly letting Lorenzo Neal go and acquiring Chambers). I think this will actually prolong LaDainian's productive years and give them more opportunities to win a championship. Just something to keep in mind going forward, LaDainian's FF numbers may slip a bit not necessarily due to lessening prowess but a different mix of plays in the offense.
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This seems to make sense, and I agree that better QB play, and an increased emphasis on the passing game can open up more holes for LT. I can see his rushing totals decreasing, probably his receiving as well, but his TDs will remain high - not record setting high, but very good. He may not be the #1 RB, but there's nobody else I'd give better odds to.
 
Maurile Tremblay said:
Chase Stuart said:
On another note, Tomlinson has somewhere around a one in four chance of breaking Emmitt's rushing record -- which means he has about a 25% chance of gaining another 7700 yards. Tomlinson's projected remaining rushing yards is 5,867.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog...5#comment-81506
Click to expand...
I would wager big against Tomlinson at 3-1 odds. I think his chances of catching Emmitt are much smaller than 25% since he intends to retire after 2011. How many yards would he need to average to catch Emmitt in just four more years? (ETA: He'd need to average 1926 rushing yards per season.)(There's always the chance that he'll change his mind, but he seems serious about it.)
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If he produces 1500 yards per season til 2011, I believe he will definitely change his mind, it would take 1-2 more seasons to do it, even at "average" production. LT needs to do it IMO, because Emmitt got the title on a few years of selfish stat compilation, where he was not helping the team out much IMO.
 
Neil Beaufort Zod said:
Just my opinion, but I think Norv finally runs the team into the ground, clashes with his franchise player and ruins his fantasy career. LT is aging and watching his chances for a ring slip away. If he thinks Norv is an obstacle to that, he'll become disgruntled and his performance will drop.I'd rather be a year too early in predicting a drop-off in production than a year too late, so I'll say this is the year we see him tail off, and the Chargers miss the playoffs.
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you haven't seen the Chargers schedule. LT may have the easiest rushing schedule, based on last years rankings of course, of any RB ever.
 
Banger said:
Neil Beaufort Zod said:
Just my opinion, but I think Norv finally runs the team into the ground, clashes with his franchise player and ruins his fantasy career. LT is aging and watching his chances for a ring slip away. If he thinks Norv is an obstacle to that, he'll become disgruntled and his performance will drop.

I'd rather be a year too early in predicting a drop-off in production than a year too late, so I'll say this is the year we see him tail off, and the Chargers miss the playoffs.
Click to expand...
you haven't seen the Chargers schedule. LT may have the easiest rushing schedule, based on last years rankings of course, of any RB ever.
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I don't put a lot of weight on the hindsight strength rankings. I do know that they have another year of Norv and LT is a year older. Struggling teams don't normally put up monster stats, and I think the Chargers will start out slowly again...and stay slow this time. It was great that they won a couple of playoff games, but their regular season was not terribly impressive, epsecially considering what they had done previously. I think it takes time for Norv to turn a great team into a decent one.I'm not even getting into the Lorenzo Neal part of the equation.

 
Neil Beaufort Zod said:
Banger said:
Neil Beaufort Zod said:
Just my opinion, but I think Norv finally runs the team into the ground, clashes with his franchise player and ruins his fantasy career. LT is aging and watching his chances for a ring slip away. If he thinks Norv is an obstacle to that, he'll become disgruntled and his performance will drop.

I'd rather be a year too early in predicting a drop-off in production than a year too late, so I'll say this is the year we see him tail off, and the Chargers miss the playoffs.
Click to expand...
you haven't seen the Chargers schedule. LT may have the easiest rushing schedule, based on last years rankings of course, of any RB ever.
Click to expand...
I don't put a lot of weight on the hindsight strength rankings. I do know that they have another year of Norv and LT is a year older. Struggling teams don't normally put up monster stats, and I think the Chargers will start out slowly again...and stay slow this time. It was great that they won a couple of playoff games, but their regular season was not terribly impressive, epsecially considering what they had done previously. I think it takes time for Norv to turn a great team into a decent one.I'm not even getting into the Lorenzo Neal part of the equation.
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They are still miles ahead of KC, Denver and the Raiders in terms of personnel so they will win the division easily. Is anyone rushing to sign Neal?
 
1-2 years spread out over 3 years. (parts of years from now on)

SELL!

There was a thread somewhere that had a guy turning down a trade of his LT2 for ADP in a keeper/dynasty.

I think thats crazy. LT2 is going to age quickly.

 
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Neil Beaufort Zod said:
Just my opinion, but I think Norv finally runs the team into the ground, clashes with his franchise player and ruins his fantasy career. LT is aging and watching his chances for a ring slip away. If he thinks Norv is an obstacle to that, he'll become disgruntled and his performance will drop.I'd rather be a year too early in predicting a drop-off in production than a year too late, so I'll say this is the year we see him tail off, and the Chargers miss the playoffs.
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I don't understand this thinking. THe chargers started off slow, but finished the year very strong. Last year was the furthest they have gotten in the playoffs in years. I don't believe LT blames Norv for not being able to beat NE with no LT, a hobbled QB and TE. Norv has taken the team further than Marty did.
 
Bri said:
Chase Stuart said:
On another note, Tomlinson has somewhere around a one in four chance of breaking Emmitt's rushing record -- which means he has about a 25% chance of gaining another 7700 yards. Tomlinson's projected remaining rushing yards is 5,867.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog...5#comment-81506
Click to expand...
But his career has defied most every set of projections to begin with.
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Yes. So Chase is projecting 5,868 yards. Bri, realizing that LT has generally outperformed projections in the past, takes this into account and predicts that LT will surpass Chase's projections. Bri therefore projects Tomlinson to rush for an additional 6,100 yards.But switz, realizing that LT has generally outperformed projections in the past, takes this into account and predicts that LT will surpass Bri's projections. switz therefore projects Tomlinson to rush for an additional 6,400 yards.

I know better. I understand that LT has generally outperformed projections in the past, and I therefore expect LT to surpass switz's projection. I think he'll rush for an additional 6,700 yards.

Bri, of course, recognizes that LT typically defies projections, and thinks that LT will beat my projection by rushing for an additional 7,000 yards.

. . . and we can keep bootstrapping ourselves up to a projection of 50,000+ yards in similar fashion. ;)

But it's not sound reasoning since Chase's 5,867 projection already takes into account LT's past record-breaking ways. Any additional adjustments based on the fact that he has defied prior projections would be double-counting (or triple-counting or quadruple counting . . .)

 
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