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Luck and Gronk in the first two rounds - 12 team standard (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter lilmink
- Start date
I'm very confident in nonppr I'll get them both especially because I'm playing on yahoo in this league.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
You are playing with fire.
You leave yourself open to be exceptionally short in the 2 worst areas to be short at.
If you knew how the other drafters might draft, that' helps a lot. But you are at big risk if it doesnt fall well for you.
And if people allow all the QBs and TEs to slide (as happens often enough) you will be in a world of hurt.
You leave yourself open to be exceptionally short in the 2 worst areas to be short at.
If you knew how the other drafters might draft, that' helps a lot. But you are at big risk if it doesnt fall well for you.
And if people allow all the QBs and TEs to slide (as happens often enough) you will be in a world of hurt.
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Voice Of Reason
Footballguy
Depends on your level of involvement, league roster size, and other owners.
The benefit to this type of team is that you can go with no backup QB and TE and just fill the rest of your roster with gambles at RB & WR. If you are active on the wire, one or two of these gambles should break out.
The benefit to this type of team is that you can go with no backup QB and TE and just fill the rest of your roster with gambles at RB & WR. If you are active on the wire, one or two of these gambles should break out.
I agree with your sentiment, but you have to have a backup TE if you're selecting Gronk
KnowledgeSeeker
Footballguy
whenever i mock and take a QB & TE within first 3 picks i always end up hating my team.
skinsrule05
Footballguy
That makes it worse. You say in this league you are able to get QB/TE well past normal ADP. That means the other players are loading up on RB & WR. If that is the case they may even let QB/TE slide even farther so by the time you get to round 3 RB & WR have been picked clean.
I don't like the strategy. You will have too many weaknesses.
Seems okay.
For a draft to come out okay, you need high-value guys you can reasonably expect to score a ton of points in the first few rounds, then you need your later guys to hit. Luck and Gronk definitely fit the first part of the bill.
I'd just be very sure not to carry any depth whatsoever at any position but RB and WR coming out of the draft. Need to maximize your chances of getting hits there.
DropKick
Footballguy
Depends on the scoring system. I'd go best RB/WR available in rounds 3+ rather than a predetermined position by round.
Gronk has to stay healthy and Luck could really go off. Loads of WR talent in Indy. Nice advantage having the #1 QB and TE. You will have a challenge filling the other positions but that's part of the game.
It helps to have a feel for how the league drafts. In the past, I've got good value drafting rookie backs if I went WR/WR early. It also helps to have a few players you think are off most people's radar.
Gronk has to stay healthy and Luck could really go off. Loads of WR talent in Indy. Nice advantage having the #1 QB and TE. You will have a challenge filling the other positions but that's part of the game.
It helps to have a feel for how the league drafts. In the past, I've got good value drafting rookie backs if I went WR/WR early. It also helps to have a few players you think are off most people's radar.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
I just did a mock on FFC but it was a PPR one. I was able to get Gronk and Luck in the first two rounds from the 11 spot. Really not a fan at all doing this. I just don't feel confident with my RBs and WRs. It could be interesting though since I got a lot of rookies and high upside players. Seems like a boom or bust strategy. Here's my team:
QB Luck, Tannehill
RB Gordon, Abdullah, Martin, David Johnson (banking on rookies)
WR Matthews, Watkins, Mi. Floyd, Randle, Quick (2nd year guys and other young hopefuls)
TE Gronk, Allen
DST KC
K Walsh
QB Luck, Tannehill
RB Gordon, Abdullah, Martin, David Johnson (banking on rookies)
WR Matthews, Watkins, Mi. Floyd, Randle, Quick (2nd year guys and other young hopefuls)
TE Gronk, Allen
DST KC
K Walsh
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I did a quick Draft Wizard PPR mock out of the 8th spot for a 12 team PPR.
Ended up with:
Luck
Miller, JStew, Yeldon, Gurley
Roddy White, Steve Smith, Charles Johnson, Boldin, John Brown, Devante Parker
Gronk
I went RB in rounds 3-6 and then balanced veteran WRs that I know I can start and get some production with upside WRs that I hope can hit. I think those vets are the key to something like this. In ppr last year Smith was 18th, Boldin was 19th , Roddy was 21st in PPR. I don't see much of anything negative happening to their situations other thann another year of age. That is good value for not touching a WR until round 7.
I am not sure how well DraftWizard reflects actual drafts that are happening, but it was the easiest way to check it out.
Ended up with:
Luck
Miller, JStew, Yeldon, Gurley
Roddy White, Steve Smith, Charles Johnson, Boldin, John Brown, Devante Parker
Gronk
I went RB in rounds 3-6 and then balanced veteran WRs that I know I can start and get some production with upside WRs that I hope can hit. I think those vets are the key to something like this. In ppr last year Smith was 18th, Boldin was 19th , Roddy was 21st in PPR. I don't see much of anything negative happening to their situations other thann another year of age. That is good value for not touching a WR until round 7.
I am not sure how well DraftWizard reflects actual drafts that are happening, but it was the easiest way to check it out.
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bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I did gronk/ peyton last year to great success. Grabbing leveon top of round 3 certainly helped
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
LOL Helps getting lucky with that 3rd round pick. Who's going to be the 3rd round star this year?
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Well his adp wasnt that great and it felt risky at the time with thr weed bust. But i did make the pick.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
The idea behind this method would be to reduce the role of chance in the first 2 rounds. Outside of injury, it is hard to imagine a scenario where Luck and Gronk aren't at the very top of their position. With RBs, outside of injury, the general bust risk is higher. Plus, you are just likely to have more year to year variance as well as workload/age declines. AP, Lynch, Foster, Forte could all fall victim to age and workload. As good as Charles is, he has only finished in the top 6 for standard scoring twice in his 7 years. Murray and McCoy are on new teams, that always brings risk. At WR, there are about 9 guys that likely have a very realistic chance to finish as the #1 WR. You can basically take Dez, DT, Brown, Julio, Calvin, AJ, Jordy, ODB, and Alshon and hit shuffle. They could all end up in any order.
If you take Luck and Gronk early, you are playing the "sure thing" and hoping that you can be successful with the more variable positions later at a lower cost. My only note is that if I did this, I would take Rodgers over Luck. A healthy Rodgers has always been ether the #1 or #2 QB.
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Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
With their ADPs so close one could use one or the other as a backup plan in case your favorite of the 2 is already taken.
It would be insane to take Rodgers over Luck. Luck was already neck and neck with Rodgers BEFORE the Colts started going crazy acquiring weapons for Luck to use.
Rodgers is very safe. Luck is very safe with upside Rodgers can't hope to sniff.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Every player and position has injury risk. Ignoring injury risk, a full season of a healthy Gronk is at worst second only to Graham.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Rodgers has already shown he can have a better season than Luck had last year. Luck may have a lot of weapons, but Green Bay has the 3 best weapons IMO. Maybe others disagree, but a prime Jordy/Cobb/Lacy is the best trio of pass catchers in the NFL.
Deamon
Footballguy
He had that season before they committed to the run game. Lacy brings a whole new game plan into play, you could see that last year. Yes, a good run game only helps Rodgers open things up, and he should be successful throwing the ball down the field. But it limits those massive passing games he used to have. They use Lacy inside the red zone a lot. He busts long runs that eat up Rodgers' yardage. They play a lot of run/game control now.
Its the same situation that is going to limit peyton this year, only rodgers is still a lock for top 3 and going to put up big numbers. Luck has the same floor as Rodgers though, where on bad weeks he'll still probably throw for 250 and 2. But I'm willing to bet that Luck has more 400-3/4 games then rodgers does this year.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
In my league, Luck scored 2 more fantasy points than Rodgers last year. This "new" gameplan didn't detract from Rodgers. Rodgers had more pass attempts last year than he did in his career year (2011). The thing that made the difference was INTs. Luck throws a lot where Rodgers doesn't. Your league scoring may vary so that could be a factor in varying evaluations.
DropKick
Footballguy
Jordy/Cobb/Adams will be a formidable trio. Rodgers does have similar upside to Luck. However, the Pack seems more committed to the run and, if given a choice, I would go Luck if only to avoid bad weather in the fantasy play-offs.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
You can play the waiver wire and get good QB and TE production. Not the top producers, but nobody got Murray, Foster, Lacy, Dez, Brown or Jordy off waivers last year. These QBs and TEs were all putting up startabke numbers at various points and could have been had off waivers in many leagues:
Palmer, Tannehill, Sanchez, Flacco, hell Cousins and McCown even had a small run and at TE Kelce,Walker, Allen, Donell, Fleener, Miller.
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Jack White
Footballguy
I don't see Gronk as a TE, per se. He's Gronk.
But I wouldn't take Luck. Last year I got Russell at 9.11.
But I wouldn't take Luck. Last year I got Russell at 9.11.
DropKick
Footballguy
None of those QB/TE combos compare to Luck/Gronk though. You have rounds 3+ to fill your roster. I hate to rely on waivers and being high enough in priority to get a guy when his opportunity emerges but there were good waiver acquisitions (CJ Anderson, Forsett) last year. There were also amazing rookie contributions (ODB, Evans, Watkins, Hill).
Don't know that I would go with this particular strategy but you don't want a bust from your top picks. Luck and Gronk seem like safe bets to me... You can make this work.
DropKick
Footballguy
I'm not sure why others are talking about waiver QBs when, as you point out, your real comparison is QB10-12.
For a while, I think Luck was over-rated as people acted as if it were still Peyton tossing balls in Indy. Now, he's past the learning curve and Indy has loaded up on WR talent. He could blow up.
Seattle isn't going to throw the ball that way and Wilson's value comes from his running ability. Personally, I don't like to rely on a running QB. And, Wilson probably doesn't drop that far now so you have to hit on your late round QB. That isn't too different from having to hit on a mid-round RB/WR.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
There is also a lot more competition for those RBs and WRs because they make up the bulk of everyone's rosters. For example, my league has 18 roster spots and 12 teams. Each team has 1 D, 1 K, and between QB/TE 4 guys (likely lower since smarter teams don't carry that many). That means between RB and WR there at minimum 144 RBs and WRS being rostered. When the new CJ Anderson or ODB appears, everyone is going after him. When a TE or QB appears, there isn't much competition for that player. I do agree with your point that if you are looking to get an elite player off waivers, it isn't likely to happen at QB or TE. On the other hand, it isn't that easy to land the Forsett or Mike Evans. For every out of nowhere RB/WR that stays hot, there are tons that fizzle out.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
It's more like QB8-QB17. If you look at ppg, the difference between QB8 ad QB17 is 1 ppg. That might be a good reason to take Luck though, he's going to be good enough to actually stand out amongst what really is a big cluster of QBs performing very similarly.
Jack White
Footballguy
I didn't intend to point to Wilson specifically.DropKick said:
My point is that you can only start one QB, and you can get 85 to 90 percent of Luck's production much later than the first two rounds.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
There are so many factors that come into play when analyzing this. First of all---what are your starting lineup requirements---2 rb, 2 wr, 1 flex---or is it 2rb, 3wr...etc? Secondly---what is your draft position? I think if you had a mid-slightly late first round pick--that you can maybe get away with this. I don't think you could make this happen with an early first round pick--because I would bet that neither Luck nor Gronk would be available in the very late second. I think that if you had an early first round pick--that you could maybe try to trade down to an owner that might be enamored with a guy like Antonio, or AP---so that you could land these two guys--but still maintain a top pick in the third round..etc. Essentially--I think it's a strategy that could work--but it's very hard to analyze without all of the information.
pantherclub
Footballguy
I would take Luck and Gronk in the first 2 rounds but I cannot imagine any league where that scenario would be likely.
DropKick
Footballguy
In my scoring system last season, Tannehill (#12) scored 73% of Luck's (#2) points. Rodgers and Luck were in a tier my themselves and Luck might take that to another level with a healthy Dwayne Allen, Andre Johnson, Dorsett plus Hilton and Moncrief...
DropKick
Footballguy
It would take a late first/early second combo. I could see Gronk in the 2nd with Brady's suspension.
