Marcedes Lewis: Steal of the Draft at TE (1 Viewer)

[Devil in the Detail]

Marcedes Lewis is currently being severely undervalued. Consider:

- In 2010, Lewis finished as the #4 TE (non-PPR) with 700 yds (6th best) and 10 TDs (tied for 1st).

- In 2011, Lewis is expected to be the #1 receiving option for the Jaguars again

- In 2011, Lewis should receive even more targets now that Sims-Walker is gone

- At an athletic 6-6, Lewis is by far the Jaguars' best red-zone receiving option.

- A former high first round pick who was an absolute beast at UCLA, Lewis has a great pedigree and really put it all together last year.

Given the above, I find it surprising Lewis is drafted often well after guys like:

- Kellen Winslow, who has never caught more than 5TDs, is his team's #2 receiving option, has a terrible injury history and is already dinged up this year

- Jimmy Graham, who is perhaps the #3 receiving option on his team and only had 5tds/380yds last year

- Aaron Hernandez, who is the #2 TE on the NE depth chart, is perhaps the third-to-fifth receiving option, and is coming off a season-ending injury

- Jermichael Finley, who has played four years in the NFL, still has never even reached 700yds or more than 5tds (and has had seasons of 0, 1,and 1 TDs), and is coming off a serious season-ending injury.

 

[glong989]

10 TDs is where a good amount of his scoring came from. If you want to project 10 TDs again without a decent passing game then go ahead. Add to that that he wont get tons of receptions for PPR and you have him drafted right around where he probably should.

Also, all your knocks on the guys being drafted ahead of him are mostly injury related.

 

[Captain Hook]

YES he was last year

What does that have to do with this year?

Do you expect him to even repeat last year's numbers?

 

[Devil in the Detail]

YES he was last yearWhat does that have to do with this year?Do you expect him to even repeat last year's numbers?

I explained why he is a good bet to repeat or even improve upon last year's numbers, ie his team's best red-zone and overall receiving option, his size and skill, and his overall role in the offense, especially relative to other TEs being drafted ahead of him.

 

[glong989]

YES he was last yearWhat does that have to do with this year?Do you expect him to even repeat last year's numbers?

I explained why he is a good bet to repeat or even improve upon last year's numbers, ie his team's best red-zone and overall receiving option, his size and skill, and his overall role in the offense, especially relative to other TEs being drafted ahead of him.

The fact that the TE is the overall best receiving target tells me a great deal about his situation. Vernon Davis is in the same situation in SF but is more gifted athletically I would say. It also doesn't matter a great deal what type of RZ target he is if they aren't in the red zone a whole lot. He may have some 2 TD games but he will also have a good bit of duds when Jax can't get their offense going like I expect a lot this year.

 

[rainram]

Ssssshhhhh

I love Lewis. I see no reason why he cannot, and should not match last year's numbers. 10 TDs...sure. 700 yards...sure. Jacksonville won't score many TDs, but he will be their leading TD scorer (for pass catchers). If Garrard is at QB, there is familiarity. If they bring Gabbert in, he's the safety valve. Not a stellar talent, but still very good and creates matchup problems.

I've loved that he's been going late. Allows me to usually go Winslow and Lewis... And sometimes, if you're aggressive you can still get a top 5 TE and snag Lewis as your #2 if you take one early...

 

[rainram]

YES he was last yearWhat does that have to do with this year?Do you expect him to even repeat last year's numbers?

I explained why he is a good bet to repeat or even improve upon last year's numbers, ie his team's best red-zone and overall receiving option, his size and skill, and his overall role in the offense, especially relative to other TEs being drafted ahead of him.

The fact that the TE is the overall best receiving target tells me a great deal about his situation. Vernon Davis is in the same situation in SF but is more gifted athletically I would say. It also doesn't matter a great deal what type of RZ target he is if they aren't in the red zone a whole lot. He may have some 2 TD games but he will also have a good bit of duds when Jax can't get their offense going like I expect a lot this year.

Yes but if you're getting him late, then that is awesome production/value.Also, in games where they will likely be behind in the 4th quarter (i.e. most of them)...lots of passing.I don't think anyone is clamoring for him to be top 5...but of the tier after that...he could definately tops in that group.

 

[jonboltz]

Pettigrew.

 

[rainram]

Pettigrew.

Detroit: 1.) Calvin Johnson 2.) Nate Burleson 3.) PettigrewJacksonville: 1.) Lewis 2.) Mike ThomasI like Pettigrew too...but not above Lewis...not even close.

 

[jonboltz]

Pettigrew.

Detroit: 1.) Calvin Johnson 2.) Nate Burleson 3.) PettigrewJacksonville: 1.) Lewis 2.) Mike ThomasI like Pettigrew too...but not above Lewis...not even close.

Your case looks strong when you post incorrect and inaccurate information. This is a more accurate pictureetroit: QB Stafford - 1) Calvin 2) Pettigrew 3) BurlesonJacksonville: QB Garrard/Gabbert - 1) Thomas 2) Lewis 3) Hill

 

[Da Guru]

Pettigrew.

I am thinking that Pettigrew value was higher with Shawm "Checkdown" Hill than it will be with Stafford.

 

[angman]

If I can get Lewis as the 10-12 TE off the board late, why not? He's good value there.

 

[glong989]

YES he was last yearWhat does that have to do with this year?Do you expect him to even repeat last year's numbers?

I explained why he is a good bet to repeat or even improve upon last year's numbers, ie his team's best red-zone and overall receiving option, his size and skill, and his overall role in the offense, especially relative to other TEs being drafted ahead of him.

The fact that the TE is the overall best receiving target tells me a great deal about his situation. Vernon Davis is in the same situation in SF but is more gifted athletically I would say. It also doesn't matter a great deal what type of RZ target he is if they aren't in the red zone a whole lot. He may have some 2 TD games but he will also have a good bit of duds when Jax can't get their offense going like I expect a lot this year.

Yes but if you're getting him late, then that is awesome production/value.Also, in games where they will likely be behind in the 4th quarter (i.e. most of them)...lots of passing.I don't think anyone is clamoring for him to be top 5...but of the tier after that...he could definately tops in that group.

Sure. Me throwing Davis out there is just for comparison of the offensive situation - not the two players really. I think he can be as good as last season but I also think he could regress. I just see a bit more consistency and/or better offensive situation in the others around the same level. JMO.

 

[eoMMan]

The problem with basing his production off of TD's is that TD's just aren't predictable. It's easier to gauge yards or number of catches but whether someone catches 5 TD's or 10 TD's is sometimes hard to estimate.

Do you think his mom intentionly spelled his name wrong? Was she worried about being sued my Mercedes for using the name?

 

[rjv]

You can get Graham much later in the draft. Graham is in a better situation as well.

 

[eoMMan]

You can get Graham much later in the draft and will produce if not equal numbers, but better than Lewis.

Not lately. Graham has been going in the top 10 in a lot of drafts. Lewis is borderline top 10.

 

[angman]

You can get Graham much later in the draft. Graham is in a better situation as well.

I've seen Graham's ADP skyrocketing this last week or so ahead of the ADP for Mercedes. There's a lot of value at TE this year.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

You can get Graham much later in the draft. Graham is in a better situation as well.

 

[Devil in the Detail]

YES he was last yearWhat does that have to do with this year?Do you expect him to even repeat last year's numbers?

I explained why he is a good bet to repeat or even improve upon last year's numbers, ie his team's best red-zone and overall receiving option, his size and skill, and his overall role in the offense, especially relative to other TEs being drafted ahead of him.

The fact that the TE is the overall best receiving target tells me a great deal about his situation. Vernon Davis is in the same situation in SF but is more gifted athletically I would say. It also doesn't matter a great deal what type of RZ target he is if they aren't in the red zone a whole lot. He may have some 2 TD games but he will also have a good bit of duds when Jax can't get their offense going like I expect a lot this year.

Historically, the best fantasy TEs are usually/often the best receiving target on their team. For example, Tony Gonzalez for all of those years and Gates for every year that he has been dominant. Vernon Davis also comes to mind.

 

[Hugonel]

Lewis has been touted for a few years as quite talented and athletic. He was a first round draft pick. It wasn't a shock to see him come into his own last year so I don't agree that we automatically chalk 2010 up as a fluke.

I got him in the 12th round (but we don't have to start a TE) as the #8 TE off the board and was thrilled to have him as my #5 WR. So at least in a league with no TE's mandated, that's fantastic value.

 

[NBusiness]

Greg Olsen says no

 

[Touchdown There]

Marcedes Lewis is flying under the radar. I am risk averse to the injury history of the top TEs. I do think the TE pool is deep this year and I have been drafting them late, usually pairing Marcedes Lewis with Owen Daniels.

 

[Touchdown There]

Marcedes Lewis is flying under the radar. I am risk averse to the injury history of the top TEs. I do think the TE pool is deep this year and I have been drafting them late, usually pairing Marcedes Lewis with Owen Daniels.

And if you can get Lance Kendricks or Heap (let's face it, Kolb loves throwing to TEs) late as your TE3 in redraft, one of your TEs is going to pop as a top TE. No sense in taking TE early this year, IMO.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I didn't take Marcedes Lewis even though I had him last year, because of the possibility of Gabbert coming in. Also as someone else pointed out it's a lot to ask to hit the jackpot with heavy TD's again.

The Lewis strategy last year was get the TE everyone passed on before everyone realizes they passed on him.

This post becomes interesting for identifying that guy this year.

Graham, Gronk and Hernandez already seem to be getting pushed in preseason and picked in drafts. Graham had a shot at still getting passed but not after that early game kick the wheels demonstration the Saints put on in Oakland.

Kendricks is interesting.

I also have:

Olsen - not sure if people are on to him yet or not, problem is there may be few TD's

Celek - just because last year was so crummy

Evan Moore -CLE

Pettigrew

Heap - could it be???? Think of Kolb with Celek... this could happen.

 

[Couch Potato]

A guy has a fluke season and people expect it again the next year. So typical. He'd never had more than 518 yards or 2 TDs in his four seasons prior to 2010 and he won't come close to those 10 TDs again. If he does better than 600/6 I'll be surprised.

 

[Touchdown There]

A guy has a fluke season and people expect it again the next year. So typical. He'd never had more than 518 yards or 2 TDs in his four seasons prior to 2010 and he won't come close to those 10 TDs again. If he does better than 600/6 I'll be surprised.

That is one way to put it. The other is that a 1st round draft pick has worked hard over the years and has finally grown into the main target for the Jags and is entering his prime. He held the franchise tag and just signed a long-term contract.There are plenty of Marcedes Lewis naysayers and all they can do is point to his 40 time. Some guys just get no love.

 

[bengalbuck]

I didn't take Marcedes Lewis even though I had him last year, because of the possibility of Gabbert coming in. Also as someone else pointed out it's a lot to ask to hit the jackpot with heavy TD's again.The Lewis strategy last year was get the TE everyone passed on before everyone realizes they passed on him.This post becomes interesting for identifying that guy this year.Graham, Gronk and Hernandez already seem to be getting pushed in preseason and picked in drafts. Graham had a shot at still getting passed but not after that early game kick the wheels demonstration the Saints put on in Oakland. Kendricks is interesting.I also have:Olsen - not sure if people are on to him yet or not, problem is there may be few TD'sCelek - just because last year was so crummyEvan Moore -CLEPettigrewHeap - could it be???? Think of Kolb with Celek... this could happen.

I'd add another name to this list of a guy who has fallen almost completely off the radar...Jermaine Gresham.He is a big-time talent who put up 50-500-4 last year as a rookie. He catches everything, has great speed and physicality and has really long arms. People also forget that he didn't play at all in 2009 (pre-season injury), so he had a lot of rust to shake off. He also had TO and Ocho hogging all the targets and was splitting time at TE. With Bo Scaife on IR, Gresham has zero competition for time at TE.This year, I personally believe as a Bengals homer, he'll be the #2 target behind AJ Green. Granted the offense isn't great so anything more than 6 or 7 TDs is highly unlikely, but he does have some upside in PPR. The thing I like about him that most people don't know is that he has been the Bengals most effective screen option. Unlike most teams, the Bengals rarely run RB screens. However, they've had some good success in running the TE screen to Gresham who has looked very good running with the ball after the catch. I think we'll see something like 70-700-6 from Gresham as the receptions pile up in the new west coast offense and as he improves in his 2nd season.

 

[Tau837]

You can get Graham much later in the draft. Graham is in a better situation as well.

Not in my drafts. Graham is going considerably before Lewis in multiple drafts this week.

 

[Kenny Powers]

A guy has a fluke season and people expect it again the next year. So typical. He'd never had more than 518 yards or 2 TDs in his four seasons prior to 2010 and he won't come close to those 10 TDs again. If he does better than 600/6 I'll be surprised.

And hence exactly why he is going so late for a TE coming off a TD year, IMO. He wasnt even a rosterable TE before last year. I will easily take Gronk, Pettigrew, Olsen, Cooley over him.

 

[Hugonel]

A guy has a fluke season and people expect it again the next year. So typical. He'd never had more than 518 yards or 2 TDs in his four seasons prior to 2010 and he won't come close to those 10 TDs again. If he does better than 600/6 I'll be surprised.

And hence exactly why he is going so late for a TE coming off a TD year, IMO. He wasnt even a rosterable TE before last year. I will easily take Gronk, Pettigrew, Olsen, Cooley over him.

Absolutely. It's really what defines value. Having a hunch that a guy might surprisingly outperform his ADP. Here, we have solid evidence that he CAN perform at a high level, but clearly there are many who chalk it up to fluke. Hence his potential value. If it was a guarantee that he'd duplicate then he'd not be value at all and would be going much sooner.

 

[Crippler]

A guy has a fluke season and people expect it again the next year. So typical. He'd never had more than 518 yards or 2 TDs in his four seasons prior to 2010 and he won't come close to those 10 TDs again. If he does better than 600/6 I'll be surprised.

That is one way to put it. The other is that a 1st round draft pick has worked hard over the years and has finally grown into the main target for the Jags and is entering his prime. He held the franchise tag and just signed a long-term contract.There are plenty of Marcedes Lewis naysayers and all they can do is point to his 40 time. Some guys just get no love.

Here is one of my main concerns for Lewis. He finally played well last year in his contract year. NOw that he got his cash, I see him going back to his ways of the past. Last year was about the cash and this happens quite a bit in the NFL that players have career years in the contract year and never repeat. Finley is getting to be in this zone and expect a breakout because of it. Lewis is drafted about where he should be in the end.

 

[howo5]

Is he still SOD? Looking like he's going to be sent to the waiver wires in 10-12 team leagues with all the options at TE.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

You know you waited one round too many to pick your TE1 and Kellen Winslow goes a pick or two before. You grab Marcedes Lewis, the guy that scored 10 TDs a year ago and pat yourself on the back. "Steal of the draft! Steal of the draft!" you chant.

 

[Dez]

Is he still SOD? Looking like he's going to be sent to the waiver wires in 10-12 team leagues with all the options at TE.

He was already waived in 1 of my leagues this week.

 

[towney]

If he's sitting on the WW like in our 14 team league you can be sure I'm watching and ready to grab him.

 

[Astangi]

Already dropped him for Gresham. In a 14-teamer with 16-man rosters and a flex, I don't have room to carry 2 TEs. Without double-digit TDs, and Garrard locking in on him, this guy will not be top-10 this year.

 

[Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub]

With the only way this team is going to do anything is ground & pound, no way I want him as my #1 TE. About as appealing as Zach Miller's prospects this year with Tavaris back there.

 

[lazyike]

Don't like his situation in Jax. I drafted him as my #1 before Garrard was released and luckily picked up Hernandez a couple of rounds later. (league requires we carry 2 TEs)I recently dropped Lewis and picked up Dickson.

 

[th3f00l]

I still like Olsen better. We know Carolina can get the passing game going, but Cam is still a rookie. Wasn't there a discussion about rookie QB's and the value of their TE.

 

[heropretend]

Going to start him this week. He practiced fully and is off the injury list.

Last week the Saints gave up 5 76 1td to Daniels and Casey blew them up for 126 and 1td. Vilma is in but should be limited. The other lbs are banged up or not so great. Against the panthers, MJD was heavily involved and should be again, but the Saints are going to put up a bunch of points and should be playing from ahead all game. Gabbert will be throwing and his best throw is supposedly up the seam.

 

[Romofan]

Lewis narrowly escaped being Cut from my team this week and he would have if I had won one of 4 bids for one of the weekly WW darlings. He sits on the bench this week for me. Hopefully if you waited on TE this year and grabbed Lewis you backed that up a round or 2 later (I nabbed Keller) if Gabbert doesn't target Lewis consistently this week I'm trading in the broken down Marcedes for a cheap WR6 that I'll keep in the garage.

 

[Binky The Doormat]

Not unlike the LHUCKS "Kellen Winslow is the Key to your Superbowl" (or something like that) ...prediction thread.

 

[Tusken Raider]

Grabbed Lewis off the waiver wire yesterday & thinking about starting him. My other options are Gates (out) & Winslow (steady, but nothing spectacular). With a rookie QB & the Jags likely to be playing from behind, I think Lewis has a decent shot at grabbing some middle of the field catches, and maybe a TD.

 

[Buckna]

Cutting Garrard a few days before the season started killed any chance at much value. JAX is dead last in passing attempts, completions, yards & TD's. Plus Mercedes has been hurt, kiss of death for his chances this year.

 

[footballnerd]

Dropped him for Gresham, similar situation but healthy

 

[heropretend]

if i had gresham on the wire i'd stream him right into my lineup as well.

wasn't a terrible call. zach miller got a td, lewis had 7 targets. but i think i'll have to put the keys in the drawer for a while. gabbert managed to outthrow his completion percentage today with 42 attempts on a 38% completion rate. which is kind of incredible.