With the makeover that's in progress on the Saints roster there's more than a reasonable argument that we have no idea whatsoever what "Payton's system" will be in 2015. The Saints looked very stale in 2014. An entire retrofit of the offense with a strong blocking in line TE, The Human Statue Commonly Known As Marcus Colston as the de facto pass catching TE, a mammoth new WR target like Green Beckham and in space playmakers like Cooks and Spiller could be the new look...or not. Nice puzzle to try to figure out as there should be significant (and likely revised) fantasy value here.
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Mark Ingram (6 Viewers)
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Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
understand the logic and it's also possible no other team wanted to pay Ingram to be their primary back so he signed with the Saints without really trying to test the market. it's possible. i have a hard time believing that though, I would think he wouldn't have resigned with the Saints without some assurance that he will be the primary back. i've watched spiller more than i've watched ingram and i still stand by my comment as a knock on spiller, he simply doesn't look the part to me.
unfortunately i will not argue with the fact that spiller is a capable enough back who will keep ingram from being that bellcow stud yet again. i will concede it could be a 1a / 1b situation with ingram getting the first two downs plus goal line carries.
LOL, so more than Ingram? I went from being sort of excited with Ingram's prospects as a keeper to really excited when he re-signed and they dumped PT to thinking no way in heck would I ever keep him.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Who do you think got more guaranteed money? Did you even consider that?
Chaka
Footballguy
I am on record as saying that I think Ingram would be fine from a fantasy perspective with 15-17 touches/game. But is tough to be optimistic he will achieve even the low end of that with the way the offseason has shaped up. I suspect Cadet will end up being the odd man out for regular touches, but Khiry will likely take a small handful, which will be significant for Ingram IMO because Spiller is clearly going to be in some type of full blown time share for touches out of the Saints backfield and Robinson will likely eat more into Ingram's touches than Spiller.
At first blush I think maybe 12-14 touches would be more realistic for Ingram's projections in 2015.
At first blush I think maybe 12-14 touches would be more realistic for Ingram's projections in 2015.
Chaka
Footballguy
And I think it is possible that Ingram maybe chose to stay in New Orleans for less because maybe, just maybe, he didn't want to be a 300 touch RB. The guy might have an eye on life after football and realized that he can get paid well (and likely for more years) if he was closer to a 200 touch RB.
Just a thought.
Just a thought.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Posted this in the Matthews thread:
If I were an NFL RB, a decent 200 touch role on a good team making $4 million / year, plus being able to actually walk at 40, would look pretty good to me vs. a little more $ and getting my body totally destroyed in a featured role while winning three games a year on the Raiders / Jags / etc.
BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
whats the over/under on how many games before spiller is hurt
cstu
Footballguy
It all depends on the specifics, but the Saints certainly aren't guaranteed to be a "good" team, and there were several good teams in the market for a RB this offseason.
Chaka
Footballguy
gianmarco
Footballguy
I'd set it pretty high if I were you.
Here's the list of RBs in the NFL that have played more games than Spiller since he came in the league in 2010 with over 500 carries.
Chris Johnson -- 80 out of 80
Lynch -- 79 out of 80
L. Blount -- 77 out of 80
Forte -- 75 out of 80
Gore -- 75 out of 80
SJax -- 74 out of 80
McCoy -- 74 out of 80
S. Greene -- 71 out of 80
That's it.
Spiller is next, having played in 70 out of 80 games.
And if you had looked at the same thing prior to last year from 2010-2013 (prior to his broken collarbone), he was 6th on that list, having played in 61 of 64 games and behind only BJGE, Chris Johnson, Lynch, Ray Rice, and M. Tolbert.
I know it's trendy to talk about Spiller and getting injured, but he's actually been one of the more durable RBs since he's been in the NFL. Here is a newsflash -- Running backs in the NFL get hurt and miss time.
Hawkfire
Footballguy
Spiller will see fewer stacked boxes because they fear Brees. Spiller has NEVER had a passing game that anyone had to worry about. Besides, Ingram will be the bulldozer and Spiller will be Sproles the 1st year he was in NO.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
The days of "fearing" Brees are coming to an end. I think Payton will find a way to make him productive but this is not going to be a good team this year.
I own Ingram. The addition of Spiller dramatically lowers my guy's ceiling and his overall value. I would like to see what Ingram owners are getting in trades now.
The only upsides are around Spiller getting hurt again or the Saints becoming a min. 500-RB-touches team that can sustain 2 fantasy starters.
The only upsides are around Spiller getting hurt again or the Saints becoming a min. 500-RB-touches team that can sustain 2 fantasy starters.
jurb26
Footballguy
NO has already shown the past several years they can sustain 2 viable fantasy RBs. No, they won't become studs because of limitations, but still quality players. We all know Ingram finished strongly last season and did so missing a decent amount of time. Thomas also did well and only played 11 games. Thomas had 45 receptions in those 11 games.
If Ingram keeps his role and Spiller takes Thomas role, they will both have decent value.
jurb26
Footballguy
A roster full of decent value doesn't. You need some horses. There is a place on winner rosters for guys posting RB14 seasons, though.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Just helped win me a title after drafting the like of Rice and Stacy before landing him as my #4. Was a great pairing with Leveon.
I suppose my comment was more meant to be that I went from thinking he could be my horse to being that guy that gets you 6-10 pts per week.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It's short-sighted when people harp only on games played when talking about injury history. When a guy plays ineffectively because he's injured, it's even worse because it means his poor owners are often putting him in their starting lineup and getting squat out of him. Spiller essentially missed an entire season to this in addition to the 10 games actually "missed".
I think it often really comes down to people that have actually owned the headache vs. those that haven't and are just looking at box scores. I still remember people doing the same thing with Beanie Wells to claim he didn't have problems with injuries. But even at the time before injuries finally did him in (prior to which he had only actually missed 3 games in 3 years) I remember the headache of putting him in my lineup while he went 6 carries for 3 yards while hampered by an injury, then having him on my bench a few weeks later when he went for 200/3 despite being listed as questionable. This has been Spiller lately as well.
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Ghost Rider
Footballguy
While I agree that it would have been nice to see Ingram go somewhere else, we have to remember that this is 2015, not 1993. Very few teams go with one featured back anymore. Ingram in NO is still better than him going somewhere like Oakland or Jax, where he'd put up tons of ugly weeks in route to running for 1,044 yards and 6 touchdowns. Plus, Ingram hasn't been durable, so him staying on the Saints really is good for his stock.
Marshawn Lynch is a scrub, too, right? Since he couldn't beat out FJax?Smart FF players don't write off players for bad coaching decisions.
nightmare
Footballguy
CJ Spiller is the edge guy that will see 80 rec's. M Ingram will still see 15-20 rushes and 2 rec's a game.
Spiller was under utilized in Buffalo. Plenty of FF points for both. Ingram averaged 19.5 touch's last
year in 13 games. Rb12 is my prediction, Spiller could go 2011 D Sproles but they still need Ingram
to get the inside stuff.
Spiller was under utilized in Buffalo. Plenty of FF points for both. Ingram averaged 19.5 touch's last
year in 13 games. Rb12 is my prediction, Spiller could go 2011 D Sproles but they still need Ingram
to get the inside stuff.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Not sure if anyone saw or posted this but if you believe it what Ingram is saying, more on that in a minute, then he never reached the open market. Key point of this article below: http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2015/03/mark_ingram_happy_to_stay_loya.html
Because New Orleans didn't pick up the $5 million option on Ingram's contract for the 2015 season, the former Alabama star had been scheduled to become a free agent on Tuesday afternoon. Before that happened, Ingram agreed to return to the Saints for a four-year, $16 million contract.
"I was just looking forward to seeing what we could do first," Ingram said, "and then I was going to go from there but never had to get to that point, so I'm glad to be back in the Black and Gold.
"It's good to know I didn't have to hit the open market and just wait to see where I was going to be at or not knowing where I was going to be at. Just to be able to stay home with the team that drafted me, a team I'm familiar with, a team that's familiar with me, it's just nothing but positives. I feel like we can keep building and eventually have a championship team. That's my No. 1 focus, and I'm glad I'm still here."
Now on whether I believe this is true. Ingram did not sign until full FA had opened but I believe they had an agreement in place so I think that part is true. But it's naive to think his agent did not have conversations with other teams so they must not have liked the feedback. But since that time McCoy got a nice extension, Demarco hitting his $8+ million goal, the Vikings not only not trying to lower AP's pay but other teams apparently willing to pay decent compensation to get him are all things that helped up the RB market a little. Those players are all a different level as a player than Ingram but we saw a much more accomplished but older RB in Gore get more guaranteed money. I'm left to conclude Ingram and/or his agent lost a game of chicken, they agreed to soon and likely did not put Ingram in the best chance to get the usage he's always said he craved. But to those of us wondering why he accepted the deal so quickly this does clear it up a bit.
Two other things from that article.
Loomis had this to say: " We like Mark and we have seen him for the last four years. We knew what we had. Some of his earlier production issues were due to injury or not enough opportunities. He got more opportunities and touches last season, and he showed the rest of the world what we knew he could do.
I take that last line as a big positive for Ingram as Loomis seems to recognize that Ingram is not as effective if he's not getting enough touches. Also it's obvious they like him when at a time they are purging players left and right they recognized him as someone they wanted to keep.
I did have a question from that article. Ingram tweeted this and I have no idea what he's talking about, does anyone? Have no idea what turnt means: Mark Ingram ✔ @MarkIngram22 Follow
Just talked to my dude @CJSPILLER!! Turrnnnttttttttt
Because New Orleans didn't pick up the $5 million option on Ingram's contract for the 2015 season, the former Alabama star had been scheduled to become a free agent on Tuesday afternoon. Before that happened, Ingram agreed to return to the Saints for a four-year, $16 million contract.
"I was just looking forward to seeing what we could do first," Ingram said, "and then I was going to go from there but never had to get to that point, so I'm glad to be back in the Black and Gold.
"It's good to know I didn't have to hit the open market and just wait to see where I was going to be at or not knowing where I was going to be at. Just to be able to stay home with the team that drafted me, a team I'm familiar with, a team that's familiar with me, it's just nothing but positives. I feel like we can keep building and eventually have a championship team. That's my No. 1 focus, and I'm glad I'm still here."
Now on whether I believe this is true. Ingram did not sign until full FA had opened but I believe they had an agreement in place so I think that part is true. But it's naive to think his agent did not have conversations with other teams so they must not have liked the feedback. But since that time McCoy got a nice extension, Demarco hitting his $8+ million goal, the Vikings not only not trying to lower AP's pay but other teams apparently willing to pay decent compensation to get him are all things that helped up the RB market a little. Those players are all a different level as a player than Ingram but we saw a much more accomplished but older RB in Gore get more guaranteed money. I'm left to conclude Ingram and/or his agent lost a game of chicken, they agreed to soon and likely did not put Ingram in the best chance to get the usage he's always said he craved. But to those of us wondering why he accepted the deal so quickly this does clear it up a bit.
Two other things from that article.
Loomis had this to say: " We like Mark and we have seen him for the last four years. We knew what we had. Some of his earlier production issues were due to injury or not enough opportunities. He got more opportunities and touches last season, and he showed the rest of the world what we knew he could do.
I take that last line as a big positive for Ingram as Loomis seems to recognize that Ingram is not as effective if he's not getting enough touches. Also it's obvious they like him when at a time they are purging players left and right they recognized him as someone they wanted to keep.
I did have a question from that article. Ingram tweeted this and I have no idea what he's talking about, does anyone? Have no idea what turnt means: Mark Ingram ✔ @MarkIngram22 Follow
Just talked to my dude @CJSPILLER!! Turrnnnttttttttt
ratbast
Footballguy
Chance as a featured back as recent as post Graham trade and PThomas cut. Im a believer in Spiller so I would have been much happier with Reggie Bush etc.
This is a downer for Ingram but yes I agree.
Between 2011-2013 we saw Sproles average 273 fantasy points a season and PT average 177. That's with Ingram knocking around at around 80 fantasy points a season. So we know this is a team that can sustain fantasy production for more than one RB.
Last season Ingram/Khiry and PT put up 384 fantasy points. Granted that's counting the production of 3 guys instead of two but all of these players missed a tone of games.
Point is a ton of fantasy points to go around in the Saints offense, assuming PPR leagues.
From 2011-2013, during Sproles tenure, the Saints had the second, third, and fourth most passing attempts to their RB's. Only team in the NFL to now throw to their RB's more in those 3 years was the Chiefs in 2013.
From 2011-2014 the Saints RB's have actually caught 137 more passes than the next team. That's massive.
Take it back from the Bush era in 2006 through 2014 and you have a team that attempted 391 more passes to RB's than any other team, completed 313 more passes to RB's than any other team for 1,644 more yards and 18 more TD's.
I focus on the passing because to me that's the only way to have multiple RB's produce in fantasy on the same team, at least with any level of consistency.
Spiller is an easier projection than Ingram since he's a better receiver. You see what Sproles and Reggie did in this offense, where both were either limited rushers or just not real good and it's hard not to get excited about Spiller. Sproles was a consistent PPR1 RB1 while getting about 5 carries a game. I would think Spiller could get more carries and match the receptions. So his outlook is extremely promising. I'll add one more thing. The reason Fred played over Spiller as the main third down back in Buffalo is because he's a great pass blocker. Spiller is not. Good news here is the Saints prefer to send their RB's out to catch the ball instead of blocking a higher percentage of any team in the NFL per pass attempt. I did not look up last season yet but in 2013 the Saints RB's stayed behind in pass protection an average of only 6 times per game.
Ingram becomes the more difficult projection and Spiller signing does dampen his value and of course that's who this thread is about. But I don't think it's as doom and gloom as people make it out to be but it's not ideal either. The huge key for Ingram's consistency will be keeping his involvement in the passing game. It was something considered a plus for him coming out and we saw it grow last season and we also know the Saints realized they needed to be less predictable with Ingram in the game. But Ingram will need to be more efficient per catch then he was last season. That's the key as far as I'm concerned and much more important than he averaged 12-15 carries a game or something like last years 17. he needs those 2-3 catches a game to help consistent week to week value. If not I see him as a guy who at the end of the year will post top 24 RB numbers but won't really be trusted like a RB2. He'll be a TD/matchup dependent guy who is a better draftmasters type fantasy player than one you have to set a lineup. He needs those receptions. 2-3 catches a game may not seem like much but that should be good for about 4-5 fantasy points and that will certainly soften the blow when he serves you up a few 12/50/0 TD games which I see coming.
Bottom line is I agree with those who say this limits Ingram's ceiling but he can still have solid value. I think Spiller just hit a homerun landing spot. Khiry's role I expect to be more similar to what Ingrams role used to be, which is about 5 carries a game when the other two are healthy. Of course injuries happen and that will change roles but if was looking at these players as full 16 games I think this offense will fully support Spiller and Ingram as useable RB's. But I view Spiller as the best option and a RB1 and Ingram fighting to remain a RB2 and be consistent with doing it. Khiry is no value other than an injury.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
He WAS the featured back in NO for most of 2014 when healthy, and I have a hard time believing NO gave him that much money to just give him 10 touches a game. Granted, Sean Payton is obviously a big believer in RBBC, but there should be a lot of RB touches in 2015, to where Spiller doesn't hurt Ingram as much as some of you are thinking. Besides, I never thought of Ingram as a potential RB1, but more as a very good RB2, and I still think of him that way.
Plus, the odds of him landing on another team with a good enough offense to sustain him getting tons of touches AND him staying healthy AND the team actually letting him have most of the RB touches, were pretty low.
cstu
Footballguy
Over the next two years he's making $7.8M, by comparison Ryan Mathews is making $7M as a backup.
His contract in no way signals that he's guaranteed a heavy load, that's just the going rate for free agent RB's.
No it does not "gurantee" anything but in the context of the cap space the Saints had, with Khiry already on the roster, I think it's a safe to assume he was not given that money to be a 10 carry per game back either. Just because the Eagles overpaid two RB's is not directly related to how the Saints chose to operate their RB/cap situation.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Those of you citing money as a reason to expect a heavy load for Ingram do realize that Spiller actually got a bigger contract, right?
Spiller -- 4 years/$18 million/$9M guaranteed
Ingram -- 4 years/$16 million/$7.5M guaranteed
I think both guys should get plenty of work, but I really wouldn't use money to determine what their intentions are.
nightmare
Footballguy
This kills me-NO COACH in the NFL gives out production based on salary.
The player that does the job better gets the time, The Saints could sign a
FA RB and he could take either RB's job.
They signed Ingram on what appears to be a home town discount and got
Spiller at a 2014 FA RB price. Next year that could be lower or higher
depending on what's out there.
The player that does the job better gets the time, The Saints could sign a
FA RB and he could take either RB's job.
They signed Ingram on what appears to be a home town discount and got
Spiller at a 2014 FA RB price. Next year that could be lower or higher
depending on what's out there.
Yes, not living under a rock, thanks.
I never said anything about heavy workload. I said it was more than 10 carries.
I also think people are a bit to focused on money and wearing out the "follow the money" cliche especially in the context of the Saints. Money is tight with them and would not have paid Ingram the money they did if he was going to be used like his first few years in the league. Also they did not agree to their contract on the same date with the same agent. As I posted earlier Ingram is saying he agreed to return to the Saints before he hit open FA. Sometimes players accept the first decent offer they get when they could have held out for more if they waited and I think this is what happened to Ingram while Spiller took a more patient approach. I don't read to much into Spiller getting more especially when they did not have a back like Spiller on the roster but an easy case could be made they had one who could do what Ingram can do in Khiry and for league minimum type money. The only take away I have is the Saints wanted both of them enough to spend their precious cap dollars on them and not go their normal MO or picking them up in the draft or street FA's so that indicates to me both should have a decent role but the only time I'd use the term heavy usage for any RB in New Orleans next season is Spiller in the passing game.
cstu
Footballguy
What does it say about Ingram that even though money was tight they signed another RB for more money and are paying them over $8M combined?
As for the point about 10 carries, Ingram should get a majority of the carries but we could still see a split of 15/5/5 between Ingram/Spiller/Khiry.
I'm very disappointed since I targeted Ingram as a guy to acquire before last season. Now his PPR value is RB2 at best.
As for the point about 10 carries, Ingram should get a majority of the carries but we could still see a split of 15/5/5 between Ingram/Spiller/Khiry.
I'm very disappointed since I targeted Ingram as a guy to acquire before last season. Now his PPR value is RB2 at best.
I wouldn't make much of the salary difference. Ingram's agents made a mistake by signing early. The rare subsequent developments in the market helped enhance the terms for the top-tier FA RBs and Spiller was best positioned to capitalize. That's all there is to it. I highly doubt the Saints will be sitting there thinking "We are paying this guy $x more per minute, let's use him more!"
Going forward, it seems clear that the Saints are looking to built a dominant run game to compensate for Drew's aging arm. A few teams have had reasonable success with this strategy and it's clear that the pass, pass, pass approach wasn't working anymore in New Orleans, so the change makes sense. For FF purposes, I think the best comparison is Cincy with Hill-Gio, though I suspect there will be even more carries to go around. Both Ingram and Spiller can be had on the cheap now from disillusioned owners, so I have acquired both here and there.
As for Khiry...it seems evident to me that the Saints know their Brees window is closing and are paying top dollar for premium pass protection. Otherwise they could always draft an RB cheaply and invest elsewhere. Both Ingram and Spiller excel at pass pro, while Khiry was always held back by it. So I think best-case for him is short-yardage vulture and that's assuming Ingram doesn't throw a tantrum at losing the TDs.
Going forward, it seems clear that the Saints are looking to built a dominant run game to compensate for Drew's aging arm. A few teams have had reasonable success with this strategy and it's clear that the pass, pass, pass approach wasn't working anymore in New Orleans, so the change makes sense. For FF purposes, I think the best comparison is Cincy with Hill-Gio, though I suspect there will be even more carries to go around. Both Ingram and Spiller can be had on the cheap now from disillusioned owners, so I have acquired both here and there.
As for Khiry...it seems evident to me that the Saints know their Brees window is closing and are paying top dollar for premium pass protection. Otherwise they could always draft an RB cheaply and invest elsewhere. Both Ingram and Spiller excel at pass pro, while Khiry was always held back by it. So I think best-case for him is short-yardage vulture and that's assuming Ingram doesn't throw a tantrum at losing the TDs.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Call me crazy but didnt they sign Ingram, then trade Graham, the sign Spiller?
That could also have changed what they decided to do with some money.
I do agree with whoever thinks the Spiller signing hurts Ingram's PPR value some
That could also have changed what they decided to do with some money.
I do agree with whoever thinks the Spiller signing hurts Ingram's PPR value some
Foosball God
Foos
It tells me they plan on running more and want bodies.cstu said:
