Marshawn Lynch at #5 (1 Viewer)

[topher203]

I'm thinking about taking Lynch at my draft with the 5th pick. This obviously means I would be passing on either Addai, or Jackson.

It's a semi ppr league, the rest pretty standard scoring. Jackson scares me with all the negatives surrounding him, but the dude can flat out play no matter what is around him. Addai seems to be a safe pick as well.

But for some reason I find myself coming back to Marshawn. Easy, easy schedule, as opposed to last year he had a pretty brutal one. Edwards and the Bills also seem very improved.

Am I crazy?

 

[Blackjacks]

I'm thinking about taking Lynch at my draft with the 5th pick. This obviously means I would be passing on either Addai, or Jackson.It's a semi ppr league, the rest pretty standard scoring. Jackson scares me with all the negatives surrounding him, but the dude can flat out play no matter what is around him. Addai seems to be a safe pick as well.But for some reason I find myself coming back to Marshawn. Easy, easy schedule, as opposed to last year he had a pretty brutal one. Edwards and the Bills also seem very improved.Am I crazy?

I like Lynch also but you have to wonder when Peters will be in for him. Take Peters off that line and you also have a less than steller supporting cast for Lynch as well.

 

[ScottNorwood]

I'm thinking about taking Lynch at my draft with the 5th pick. This obviously means I would be passing on either Addai, or Jackson.It's a semi ppr league, the rest pretty standard scoring. Jackson scares me with all the negatives surrounding him, but the dude can flat out play no matter what is around him. Addai seems to be a safe pick as well.But for some reason I find myself coming back to Marshawn. Easy, easy schedule, as opposed to last year he had a pretty brutal one. Edwards and the Bills also seem very improved.Am I crazy?

I like Lynch also but you have to wonder when Peters will be in for him. Take Peters off that line and you also have a less than steller supporting cast for Lynch as well.

Peters is a stud pass blocker, but only an average run blocker. I wouldn't worry about the Peters situation RE: Lynch.The bigger concern is the offense as a whole, and how many scoring opportunities they provide Lynch with. I'd rather go with Addai because you know that offense is going to be able to march it down the field.

 

[JimboJim]

I'm thinking about taking Lynch at my draft with the 5th pick. This obviously means I would be passing on either Addai, or Jackson.It's a semi ppr league, the rest pretty standard scoring. Jackson scares me with all the negatives surrounding him, but the dude can flat out play no matter what is around him. Addai seems to be a safe pick as well.But for some reason I find myself coming back to Marshawn. Easy, easy schedule, as opposed to last year he had a pretty brutal one. Edwards and the Bills also seem very improved.Am I crazy?

I like Lynch also but you have to wonder when Peters will be in for him. Take Peters off that line and you also have a less than steller supporting cast for Lynch as well.

Peters is a stud pass blocker, but only an average run blocker. I wouldn't worry about the Peters situation RE: Lynch.The bigger concern is the offense as a whole, and how many scoring opportunities they provide Lynch with. I'd rather go with Addai because you know that offense is going to be able to march it down the field.

:X I like Addai better myself for the reasons stated above, but it's your team and if you like Lynch, take him. You probably won't get him in the second.

 

[Moe Green]

I'll be shooting for Gore or Barber at 1.05, but if Lynch is there at 1.07 or 1.08 you gotta take him.

 

[Thorpe]

I live in Buffalo, am a Bills fan, and went to school at Cal (where Lynch went), and I still wouldn't take Lynch at 5. The Bills offense just doesn't score enough TDs to make it a good pick. The Bills love special teams, bend but don't break D, ultra-conservative play calling and Field Goals. Lynch should get his yards but unless everything breaks right for him he'll max out at 8 or 9 TDs. I don't think those stats will put him ahead of Addai.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I'm thinking about taking Lynch at my draft with the 5th pick. This obviously means I would be passing on either Addai, or Jackson.

It's a semi ppr league, the rest pretty standard scoring. Jackson scares me with all the negatives surrounding him, but the dude can flat out play no matter what is around him. Addai seems to be a safe pick as well.

But for some reason I find myself coming back to Marshawn. Easy, easy schedule, as opposed to last year he had a pretty brutal one. Edwards and the Bills also seem very improved.

Am I crazy?

Not at all. I think convincing arguments for a few backs in the top 8 picks. I'm trying to tweak my final rankings in both redraft and dynasty but this is for non-PPR so I'm not sure what a semi-PPR league is.

This is what I have for the top of both boards. You can see I have Lynch ahead of LdT on my dynastry rankings (due to age). In redraft I lean to the usual suspects. I like Lynch's running style but the off-field issue (hit-and-run) troubled me.

I just posted my updated redraft and dynasty rankings in this thread and would like feedback in that thread.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;#entry9082813

The updated list is here for dynasty, none PPR.

I was looking for feedback on this one and trying to tweak this updated list.

Dynasty

rank Player Team Age Ht. - Wt. BMI

1 Adrian Peterson MIN 23 6'1 217 28.6

2 Steven Jackson STL 25 6'2" 231 29.7

3 Joseph Addai IND 25 5'11" 214 29.8

4 Marshawn Lynch BUF 22 5'11" 215 30.0

5 LaDanian Thomlinson SD 29 5'10 221 31.7

6 Maurice Jones-Drew JAX 23 5'7" 212 33.2

7 Frank Gore SF 25 5'9" 223 32.9

8 Marion Barber III DAL 25 6'0" 220 29.8

9 Brian Westbrook PHI 29 5'10" 203 29.1

10 *Darren McFadden OAK 21 6'1" 211 27.8

11 Clinton Portis WAS 27 5'11" 223 31.1

12 Ryan Grant GB 25 6'1" 218 28.8

Redraft

rank Player Team Bye wk Age Ht. - Wt. BMI

1 LaDanian Thomlinson SD 9 29 5'10" 221 31.7

2 Adrian Peterson MIN 8 23 6'1" 217 28.6

3 Joseph Addai IND 4 25 5'11" 214 29.8

4 Brian Westbrook PHI 7 29 5'10" 203 29.1

5 Steven Jackson STL 5 25 6'2" 231 29.7

6 Clinton Portis WAS 10 27 5'11" 223 31.1

7 Frank Gore SF 9 25 5'9" 223 32.9

8 Marshawn Lynch BUF 6 22 5'11" 215 30.0

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

I'm thinking about taking Lynch at my draft with the 5th pick. This obviously means I would be passing on either Addai, or Jackson.It's a semi ppr league, the rest pretty standard scoring. Jackson scares me with all the negatives surrounding him, but the dude can flat out play no matter what is around him. Addai seems to be a safe pick as well.But for some reason I find myself coming back to Marshawn. Easy, easy schedule, as opposed to last year he had a pretty brutal one. Edwards and the Bills also seem very improved.Am I crazy?

I did it yesterday, same spot #5. I have him as the #5 RB this season, and trading down just dosent work out, so I did it. We shall see if he outperfoms Jackson/Gore/Barber who I could have picked. I don't mind going against the Group Think, you shouldnt either.

 

[GoinDeep]

I agree with the guys above. Go with your instincts!

Too many years I have looked over all the "pros" suggestions and ended up with an Edge, L. Jordan or T. Jones when I KNEW they would be a bust. I could have taken a #1 WR or #1 QB in that slot.

The player I have targeted at 5 is probably outside of everyones "logic" as well....but hey....at least that way I can take responsibility for losing or winning myself instead of following the herd mentality and reaching.

 

[Bad_Mo]

I live in Buffalo, am a Bills fan, and went to school at Cal (where Lynch went), and I still wouldn't take Lynch at 5. The Bills offense just doesn't score enough TDs to make it a good pick. The Bills love special teams, bend but don't break D, ultra-conservative play calling and Field Goals. Lynch should get his yards but unless everything breaks right for him he'll max out at 8 or 9 TDs. I don't think those stats will put him ahead of Addai.

I sincerely doubt that the Bills love FGs. Maybe more a crush on them. TDs are the lovable sort.

 

[coolice]

I think 5 is little high for him. I rather take Barber at 5 assuming LT, AD, S. Jax, Westy, are gone. Also, I might take Brady at 5 too.

 

[Chaka]

Krusty the Clown: It says I'm supposed to hit you in the face with this pie.

Sideshow Hakim: I wouldn't!

 

[Synthesizer]

You know he's getting 20 carries each game plus goal-line work, and he looked pretty good last year. Not a lot of downside, but enough upside to finish in the top 3 or 4. Feel comfortable picking him at #5.

 

[gasFace]

whats peters situation now?

 

[Warhogs]

I'm thinking about taking Lynch at my draft with the 5th pick. This obviously means I would be passing on either Addai, or Jackson.It's a semi ppr league, the rest pretty standard scoring. Jackson scares me with all the negatives surrounding him, but the dude can flat out play no matter what is around him. Addai seems to be a safe pick as well.But for some reason I find myself coming back to Marshawn. Easy, easy schedule, as opposed to last year he had a pretty brutal one. Edwards and the Bills also seem very improved.Am I crazy?

In a word. Yes.In all seriousness. I can see one passing on Jackson if you buy into the theory about a long holdout leading to a poor year.I would not even think of taking Lynch ahead of Addai.My concerns about Lynch are that first off we see many RBs take a step back in their sophmore season. History supports a lot of risk there. Now if you would rather base things on situation over history for other players I am not sold that the Bills offense is suddenly high octane. Addai in Indy seems to have a much better offense to run in. I have Lynch on a couple of dynasty squads and I like him a lot. In a redraft I would still say #5 is a bit early and no way would I pass on Addai for him. I could see it a close call between SJax (due to holdout), Gore, Portis, etc.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I live in Buffalo, am a Bills fan, and went to school at Cal (where Lynch went), and I still wouldn't take Lynch at 5. The Bills offense just doesn't score enough TDs to make it a good pick. The Bills love special teams, bend but don't break D, ultra-conservative play calling and Field Goals. Lynch should get his yards but unless everything breaks right for him he'll max out at 8 or 9 TDs. I don't think those stats will put him ahead of Addai.

Doesn't the development of Edwards mean that the O will be much better this year? Sure seems that way to me.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I'm thinking about taking Lynch at my draft with the 5th pick. This obviously means I would be passing on either Addai, or Jackson.It's a semi ppr league, the rest pretty standard scoring. Jackson scares me with all the negatives surrounding him, but the dude can flat out play no matter what is around him. Addai seems to be a safe pick as well.But for some reason I find myself coming back to Marshawn. Easy, easy schedule, as opposed to last year he had a pretty brutal one. Edwards and the Bills also seem very improved.Am I crazy?

In a word. Yes.In all seriousness. I can see one passing on Jackson if you buy into the theory about a long holdout leading to a poor year.I would not even think of taking Lynch ahead of Addai.My concerns about Lynch are that first off we see many RBs take a step back in their sophmore season. History supports a lot of risk there. Now if you would rather base things on situation over history for other players I am not sold that the Bills offense is suddenly high octane. Addai in Indy seems to have a much better offense to run in. I have Lynch on a couple of dynasty squads and I like him a lot. In a redraft I would still say #5 is a bit early and no way would I pass on Addai for him. I could see it a close call between SJax (due to holdout), Gore, Portis, etc.

At this point I'd consider taking Lynch over Addai. One is a workhorse back who is gonna get every chance to carry his team. One is a good rb, who is usually placed in good situations b/c the team he is on and good OL play/fear of Peyton. I think the injuries to the team, OL, and peyton, make the colts a suspect offense (not saying bottom 15), but not nearly as much of a roll down the field and dominate games team as they have been for the past 5 years (pretty much guaranteed top 3)

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

disclaimer. I took Lynch over Gore, and steven jackson (was still holding out, but i see misery for Rams o this year too- that said, I own Bulger in one league too) at 1.7 in a redraft (addai was off board)

 

[Warhogs]

I'm thinking about taking Lynch at my draft with the 5th pick. This obviously means I would be passing on either Addai, or Jackson.

It's a semi ppr league, the rest pretty standard scoring. Jackson scares me with all the negatives surrounding him, but the dude can flat out play no matter what is around him. Addai seems to be a safe pick as well.

But for some reason I find myself coming back to Marshawn. Easy, easy schedule, as opposed to last year he had a pretty brutal one. Edwards and the Bills also seem very improved.

Am I crazy?

In a word. Yes.In all seriousness. I can see one passing on Jackson if you buy into the theory about a long holdout leading to a poor year.

I would not even think of taking Lynch ahead of Addai.

My concerns about Lynch are that first off we see many RBs take a step back in their sophmore season. History supports a lot of risk there. Now if you would rather base things on situation over history for other players I am not sold that the Bills offense is suddenly high octane. Addai in Indy seems to have a much better offense to run in.

I have Lynch on a couple of dynasty squads and I like him a lot. In a redraft I would still say #5 is a bit early and no way would I pass on Addai for him. I could see it a close call between SJax (due to holdout), Gore, Portis, etc.

At this point I'd consider taking Lynch over Addai. One is a workhorse back who is gonna get every chance to carry his team. One is a good rb, who is usually placed in good situations b/c the team he is on and good OL play/fear of Peyton. I think the injuries to the team, OL, and peyton, make the colts a suspect offense (not saying bottom 15), but not nearly as much of a roll down the field and dominate games team as they have been for the past 5 years (pretty much guaranteed top 3)

I guess you think they will just forget about Fred Jackson? It is possible but many people worry about him carving into Lynch's touches. To keep on topic I can really understand considering Lynch any time from about 5-6 or after. I just feel he runs as much risk as anybody in that next tier of RBs to underperform. I am not sold on Edwards being anything but marginal at QB and that offense has not been special.

The part I really find hard to swallow would be considering taking him over Addai who is in a much better offense and has shown to be very good in that offense.

Manning >> Edwards

Wayne, Harrison, A. Gonzalez >> Evans, Hardy, whomever else

Clark>>whomever Buff can trot out at TE.

Teams will be keying HARD on stopping Lynch. He will just have much less TD opportunities due to supporting cast.

 

[Tchula]

wait and see what is available at the 5 spot. If youre still sold on lynch, trade down 2-3 spots. If brady is available, I'm sure someone will be willing to trade up a couple spots to land him. Maybe you can swap 3rd round picks in the deal.

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

wait and see what is available at the 5 spot. If youre still sold on lynch, trade down 2-3 spots. If brady is available, I'm sure someone will be willing to trade up a couple spots to land him. Maybe you can swap 3rd round picks in the deal.

That sounds good in theory, but in real life application it is much harder to do in fantasy leagues then it sounds, at least in my experience.

 

[daivos]

I'm thinking about taking Lynch at my draft with the 5th pick. This obviously means I would be passing on either Addai, or Jackson.It's a semi ppr league, the rest pretty standard scoring. Jackson scares me with all the negatives surrounding him, but the dude can flat out play no matter what is around him. Addai seems to be a safe pick as well.But for some reason I find myself coming back to Marshawn. Easy, easy schedule, as opposed to last year he had a pretty brutal one. Edwards and the Bills also seem very improved.Am I crazy?

I hope your enthusiasm for Lynch is correct, considering I have him on my team, but I think I would go with Addai in that spot if he was available. Addai is a safer pick, and you really can't afford to miss on your first-round draft pick in fantasy. Risks are better made in the later rounds.

 

[Tanner9919]

I live in Buffalo, am a Bills fan, and went to school at Cal (where Lynch went), and I still wouldn't take Lynch at 5. The Bills offense just doesn't score enough TDs to make it a good pick. The Bills love special teams, bend but don't break D, ultra-conservative play calling and Field Goals. Lynch should get his yards but unless everything breaks right for him he'll max out at 8 or 9 TDs. I don't think those stats will put him ahead of Addai.

very

 

[DrJamesAndrews Fan]

I think Lynch is in for a Big Year. Go with your gut (especially if it's a big gut)