greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
For discussion- all per Our Lads:
Arizona Cardinals:
Conner- Starter with 3 down role.
Ingram-Clement-TySon Williams- Demarcdo? Scott?
Ingram feels like the starter in waiting if Conner goes down. Not sure his skill level as a 3 down option or if the other backs are pass catching specialists. Expectation- OLine average, QB play unknown, Offensive staff and system all new. WR corps downgraded. Bottom 5 overall offense is possible so TDs may not be overflowing but passing to RBs seems likely. Conner a value at cost per current ADP, Ingram likely an injury away guy that won't be drafted in redraft. No knowing how much of a committee will form in this situation but for me, Ingram should be on late round radar as long as he's able to not be locked in an un-usable committee on a bad offense. My personal opinion is that Arizona will be better than people think and Conner will be a great value in the 6th.
Atlanta Falcons:
Bijan Robinson- Starter with 3 down role.
Allgeier- Patterson-Igwebuike, Washington
Allgeier and Patterson will both be used situationally, Allgeier probably more as a runner and Patterson in limited time in the hybrid RB-WR role he excelled in 2021. Heavy running scheme and OLine great run blocking. Overall offensive firepower limited by lack of consistent/ explosive passing QB and scheme but should be mid to slightly above average. Ridder/Heinecke will not be stealing much RB work though. Overall team RB PPR points should be top 5. Bijan being picked late first is likely a "safe" pick but may underperform expectations given the overall talent is off the charts however Allgeier and Patterson will likely each have weeks of fantasy relevance and be on the flex radar, especially Patterson in PPR and Allgeier in standard. Allgeier will provide RB2+ value if Bijan goes down and is therefore a great late round RB pick and bench stash in redraft.
Baltimore Ravens:
JK Dobbins- Starter in timeshare with less likely passing down role.
Edwards-Hill- MelGO- Mitchell, Wright
Dobbins holding out for a contract but has no leverage to speak of. Top 10 (5?) talent as a runner that has a ceiling of a top 10 fantasy back if the role is there. Monken's usage of RBs will likely involve an uptick in passing to RBs over the Roman offense but Lamar may not be inclined to check it down if he can take off for 12. However if it all comes together and Dobbins talent wins out in a significant timeshare as a true 3 down back, he will be a league winner IMO. If Monken uses Edwards like the last OC, he's also a great value at his price tag as a guy with some flex value, especially in half or no ppr leagues. If the OC splits the passing down work to Hill or Mitchell there may not be much excess value in any of them. Overall offensive ceiling is high so there's a huge amount of potential for TD upside for Dobbins and Edwards in particular. Mitchell has camp buzz but at 5'-9, 191, PPR flex is about his ceiling IMO.
Buffalo Bills:
James Cook- starter in limited running role, has passing role
Damien Harris, Latavius Murray, Darynton Evans, Jordan Mims
Great offense with a lot of short yardage vulturing and not a lot of passing to RBs. James Cook is being drafted late enough that he'll likely return some value at his price tag in PPR leagues. He's and undersized but explosive runner who does well as a pass catcher. Lack of passing to RBs and lack of usage in short/ goal line and overall touch limitations will keep him from being much of a high upside play. Will likely have a few games with long runs given his speed and his usage in the passing game. Murray and Harris are battling it out for the between the tackles job with Murray impressing, especially as a pass catcher. This may be a 3 headed backfield that won't return consistent value barring an injury.
Carolina Panthers:
Miles Sanders- starter with 3 down role
Chuba Hubbard- Balackshear- Spencer Brown- Camerun Peoples
OLine did a great job last year bulldozing for D'Onta Foreman so the assumption is that though the rookie QB will limit the overall offensive ceiling (along with the lack of high end pass catching talent). Expect Bryce Young to keep everyone afloat --enough--with his nifty playmaking ability. Chuba was unimpressive enough as to warrant the Sanders signing so don't expect much more than low end RB2 numbers if Sanders goes down. Blackshear is undersized but functional in the passing game so expect a committee if Sanders goes down. Sanders himself is a fair value mid 4th pick that has the potential to be a back end RB1 if the OLine is as effective as it was last year, the offense can sustain drives and he can catch 45 balls, all of which are attainable. Chuba's lack of ceiling makes him a non-target for me as a late round injury away guy.
Chicago Bears:
Khalil Herbert- starter with limited role
D'Onta Foreman, Roschon Johnson, Travis Homer, Trestan Ebner
Overall offense should be improved from last year with some improvements to the OLine and the addition of DJ Moore to the WR corps. Herbert's numbers last year have him as a fantastically efficient runner but will likely have a somewhat limited workload both as a ball carrier but most starkly in the passing game where his usage is almost non-existent. Add in Fields work on the ground and the relative strength of the depth chart both as runners and as pass catchers and it's unlikely he's got much of a consistent ceiling. Expect some fantastic games where he breaks off runs but also expect lots of goal line and passing work to go elsewhere. D'Onta Foreman in particular may have some weekly flex value and Johnson may carve out a role soon given his versatility and talent. Ebner and Homer are known for their work in the passing game so there's a ceiling for Herbert, especially if they're down and in a more pass-friendly mode for stretches.
Cincinnati Bengals:
Joe Mixon- starter with full 3 down workload.
Trayveon Williams-Chase Brown- Chris Evans-Jacob Saylors- Calvin Tyler Jr.
Mixon took a sizeable haircut on his deal to stay on the team. The overall offensive potential for the RBs on this team is so high and Mixon's role seems very secure, despite the major downtick in his efficiency numbers last year. He spent most of the year last year leading the league in unrealized point potential. The lack of team interest in Perine is a head scratcher for me as the backup options also lack high end talent. Given the possibility of legal woes for Mixon, this is a backfield that seems ripe for a FA signing or some unknown depth guy to carve out a role. Chase Brown may be that guy but the team also hyped up Williams and has shown no inclination to upgrade their depth. Your guess is as good as mine. Head on a swivel here as this has potential to be the out of nowhere value that swings power in your league.
Cleveland Browns:
Nick Chubb- starter with likely 3 down workload- possibly full bellcow.
Jerome Ford, Demetric Felton Jr. - John Kelly, Hassan Hall
Top OLine, good defense and a big fat who knows between Deshaun Watson's ability as a passer and playmaker and the offensive system's needs at QB. Given Chubb's ability as a runner and seemingly expanding opportunity in the passing game, the ceiling is overall RB1 this year if the offense is able to get on track. Ford seems to have RB2 locked up but has been battling injuries. Felton is an undersized back and may have the edge as a route runner. Ford has a fairly high skill level as a runner so expect him to spell Chubb and return some value as an injury away late round pick that likely won't have much flex value. The team letting Hunt and D'Ernest Johnson walk suggests they trust Ford and Felton to fill their shoes.
Arizona Cardinals:
Conner- Starter with 3 down role.
Ingram-Clement-TySon Williams- Demarcdo? Scott?
Ingram feels like the starter in waiting if Conner goes down. Not sure his skill level as a 3 down option or if the other backs are pass catching specialists. Expectation- OLine average, QB play unknown, Offensive staff and system all new. WR corps downgraded. Bottom 5 overall offense is possible so TDs may not be overflowing but passing to RBs seems likely. Conner a value at cost per current ADP, Ingram likely an injury away guy that won't be drafted in redraft. No knowing how much of a committee will form in this situation but for me, Ingram should be on late round radar as long as he's able to not be locked in an un-usable committee on a bad offense. My personal opinion is that Arizona will be better than people think and Conner will be a great value in the 6th.
Atlanta Falcons:
Bijan Robinson- Starter with 3 down role.
Allgeier- Patterson-Igwebuike, Washington
Allgeier and Patterson will both be used situationally, Allgeier probably more as a runner and Patterson in limited time in the hybrid RB-WR role he excelled in 2021. Heavy running scheme and OLine great run blocking. Overall offensive firepower limited by lack of consistent/ explosive passing QB and scheme but should be mid to slightly above average. Ridder/Heinecke will not be stealing much RB work though. Overall team RB PPR points should be top 5. Bijan being picked late first is likely a "safe" pick but may underperform expectations given the overall talent is off the charts however Allgeier and Patterson will likely each have weeks of fantasy relevance and be on the flex radar, especially Patterson in PPR and Allgeier in standard. Allgeier will provide RB2+ value if Bijan goes down and is therefore a great late round RB pick and bench stash in redraft.
Baltimore Ravens:
JK Dobbins- Starter in timeshare with less likely passing down role.
Edwards-Hill- MelGO- Mitchell, Wright
Dobbins holding out for a contract but has no leverage to speak of. Top 10 (5?) talent as a runner that has a ceiling of a top 10 fantasy back if the role is there. Monken's usage of RBs will likely involve an uptick in passing to RBs over the Roman offense but Lamar may not be inclined to check it down if he can take off for 12. However if it all comes together and Dobbins talent wins out in a significant timeshare as a true 3 down back, he will be a league winner IMO. If Monken uses Edwards like the last OC, he's also a great value at his price tag as a guy with some flex value, especially in half or no ppr leagues. If the OC splits the passing down work to Hill or Mitchell there may not be much excess value in any of them. Overall offensive ceiling is high so there's a huge amount of potential for TD upside for Dobbins and Edwards in particular. Mitchell has camp buzz but at 5'-9, 191, PPR flex is about his ceiling IMO.
Buffalo Bills:
James Cook- starter in limited running role, has passing role
Damien Harris, Latavius Murray, Darynton Evans, Jordan Mims
Great offense with a lot of short yardage vulturing and not a lot of passing to RBs. James Cook is being drafted late enough that he'll likely return some value at his price tag in PPR leagues. He's and undersized but explosive runner who does well as a pass catcher. Lack of passing to RBs and lack of usage in short/ goal line and overall touch limitations will keep him from being much of a high upside play. Will likely have a few games with long runs given his speed and his usage in the passing game. Murray and Harris are battling it out for the between the tackles job with Murray impressing, especially as a pass catcher. This may be a 3 headed backfield that won't return consistent value barring an injury.
Carolina Panthers:
Miles Sanders- starter with 3 down role
Chuba Hubbard- Balackshear- Spencer Brown- Camerun Peoples
OLine did a great job last year bulldozing for D'Onta Foreman so the assumption is that though the rookie QB will limit the overall offensive ceiling (along with the lack of high end pass catching talent). Expect Bryce Young to keep everyone afloat --enough--with his nifty playmaking ability. Chuba was unimpressive enough as to warrant the Sanders signing so don't expect much more than low end RB2 numbers if Sanders goes down. Blackshear is undersized but functional in the passing game so expect a committee if Sanders goes down. Sanders himself is a fair value mid 4th pick that has the potential to be a back end RB1 if the OLine is as effective as it was last year, the offense can sustain drives and he can catch 45 balls, all of which are attainable. Chuba's lack of ceiling makes him a non-target for me as a late round injury away guy.
Chicago Bears:
Khalil Herbert- starter with limited role
D'Onta Foreman, Roschon Johnson, Travis Homer, Trestan Ebner
Overall offense should be improved from last year with some improvements to the OLine and the addition of DJ Moore to the WR corps. Herbert's numbers last year have him as a fantastically efficient runner but will likely have a somewhat limited workload both as a ball carrier but most starkly in the passing game where his usage is almost non-existent. Add in Fields work on the ground and the relative strength of the depth chart both as runners and as pass catchers and it's unlikely he's got much of a consistent ceiling. Expect some fantastic games where he breaks off runs but also expect lots of goal line and passing work to go elsewhere. D'Onta Foreman in particular may have some weekly flex value and Johnson may carve out a role soon given his versatility and talent. Ebner and Homer are known for their work in the passing game so there's a ceiling for Herbert, especially if they're down and in a more pass-friendly mode for stretches.
Cincinnati Bengals:
Joe Mixon- starter with full 3 down workload.
Trayveon Williams-Chase Brown- Chris Evans-Jacob Saylors- Calvin Tyler Jr.
Mixon took a sizeable haircut on his deal to stay on the team. The overall offensive potential for the RBs on this team is so high and Mixon's role seems very secure, despite the major downtick in his efficiency numbers last year. He spent most of the year last year leading the league in unrealized point potential. The lack of team interest in Perine is a head scratcher for me as the backup options also lack high end talent. Given the possibility of legal woes for Mixon, this is a backfield that seems ripe for a FA signing or some unknown depth guy to carve out a role. Chase Brown may be that guy but the team also hyped up Williams and has shown no inclination to upgrade their depth. Your guess is as good as mine. Head on a swivel here as this has potential to be the out of nowhere value that swings power in your league.
Cleveland Browns:
Nick Chubb- starter with likely 3 down workload- possibly full bellcow.
Jerome Ford, Demetric Felton Jr. - John Kelly, Hassan Hall
Top OLine, good defense and a big fat who knows between Deshaun Watson's ability as a passer and playmaker and the offensive system's needs at QB. Given Chubb's ability as a runner and seemingly expanding opportunity in the passing game, the ceiling is overall RB1 this year if the offense is able to get on track. Ford seems to have RB2 locked up but has been battling injuries. Felton is an undersized back and may have the edge as a route runner. Ford has a fairly high skill level as a runner so expect him to spell Chubb and return some value as an injury away late round pick that likely won't have much flex value. The team letting Hunt and D'Ernest Johnson walk suggests they trust Ford and Felton to fill their shoes.
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