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Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Player Page Link: Marshawn Lynch Player Page

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Marshawn Lynch had one of the greatest runs we've ever seen. He did it with the entire world watching and ended up with a big game. Just like Shonn Greene did 2 years ago in the playoffs, Greene didn't reproduce those magical moments the following season. I think as fans we tend to remember the end of the season too much and weigh the last several games more than we should. I'm not overly excited about Marshawn Lynch but he does play on a team that is competitive in a week division. Marshawn Lynch to me is a guy who can fill in a flex spot, be used in favorable matchups as a RB2 but is by no means a start him if you have him type player.

799 yards, 6 td's, 25 receptions for 155 yards and 0 Td's.

 
Lynch averaged 3.7 ypc in 14 games for Seattle after being traded from Buffalo. Seattle offense was nothing special, and might not be this year either, but they did draft 2 offensive linemen with their first 2 draft picks to strengthen it. Pete Carroll will be in year 2 as will Lynch. Seattle had the 4th fewest rushing attempts last year with 385. Seems like a situation that could be a nice buy low candidate.

225 carries x 4.0 = 900 yards, 7 TD, 26 catches x 7.0 = 182 yards

 
Tom Cable should help quite a bit. The raiders rushing offense was pretty good when he was the o-line coach and head coach. The one downfall to lynch is he has never made it a full season, ever, in 5 seasons.

http://www.nfl.com/players/marshawnlynch/profile?id=LYN442976

The talent is there, but the odds are against him playing 16 games.

260 attempts, 3.9 ypc, 1010 rushing yards, 20 receptions, 175 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns.

low end RB #2, that can be had after round 6

 
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Tom Cable should help quite a bit. The raiders rushing offense was pretty good when he was the o-line coach and head coach. The one downfall to lynch is he has never made it a full season, ever, in 5 seasons.http://www.nfl.com/players/marshawnlynch/profile?id=LYN442976The talent is there, but the odds are against him playing 16 games.260 attempts, 3.9 ypc, 1010 rushing yards, 20 receptions, 175 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns.low end RB #2, that can be had after round 6
Lynch played the full 16 games last year, 4 for Buffalo and 12 for Seattle.
 
Tom Cable should help quite a bit. The raiders rushing offense was pretty good when he was the o-line coach and head coach. The one downfall to lynch is he has never made it a full season, ever, in 5 seasons.http://www.nfl.com/players/marshawnlynch/profile?id=LYN442976The talent is there, but the odds are against him playing 16 games.260 attempts, 3.9 ypc, 1010 rushing yards, 20 receptions, 175 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns.low end RB #2, that can be had after round 6
Lynch played the full 16 games last year, 4 for Buffalo and 12 for Seattle.
And he has only played 4 seasons :wall: It was posted at midnight :banned:
 
wasnt this guy a top 10 pick only a few short years ago..?...I think he has a little left in the tank as he hasn't been abused recently, Carrol gets him motivated, and he has no competition unless tey bring someone in....Leon seems relegated to special teams and Forsett doesn't seem like an every down back....this might be one of those sneaky kind of comebacks like Thomas Jones or Cedric Benson....

 
Let's remember this guy switched teams during the season and played on a pretty weak team. I think he will see a bit of an uptick this year.

I think he can get 16 carries per game and I think he can improve that YPC a bit too. 256 carries X 3.9 YPC = 998 rush yaards. Add in 30 catches for another 185 yards and I think 1183 yards is a reasonable target. He should get the carries at the goal line so if the offense can move the ball he should be able to net you 10tds too.

998 rush yards

185 rec yards

10 tds

 
Seattle SeahawksHead Coach: Pete CarrollOffensive Coordinator: Darrell Bevell (replaces Jeremy Bates)Defensive Coordinator: Gus BradleyWhat to expect on offense: Pete Carroll fought hard to bring Jeremy Bates with him from USC to Seattle, but that love affair was short lived as Carroll fired Bates citing "philosophical differences." It's widely believed Carroll was frustrated with the pass/run imbalance (544 passes to 385 rushes) and the lack of downfield passing. Enter Darrell Bevell, who spent the last few years as Minnesota's OC where he helped Brad Childress implement a run heavy attack with elements of the classic West Coast approach. With an uncertain quarterback situation, the only thing we can be sure of is that Seattle wants to run the ball more this year. Whether they have the personnel to do that, particularly a defense that will allow them to play with a lead, remains to be seen.
The hiring of Bevell is bizarre. Childress was a moron - go look through Viking game threads the past few years - so unless Bevell has a completely different philosophy than his mentor, I can't see how this is a positive for any Seahawk offensive player.
 
I believe he has more left in the tank than showed last year. With a year under his belt in Seattle and hopefully an improved O-line, I expect his numbers to improve from last year.

Assuming he stays healthy, I expect 1000 total yards as a floor with 6 to 8 tds. Lynch is someone I will be targeting in the bottom half of my drafts as I think he will drop to the point that he is a real value.

 
The threat of TJax running has to bump his value up a little bit.
I think Lynch deserves a bump due to an improved O-line, but I can't fathom associating a bump in fantasy stock with TJax. I am still hoping the starting QB is not on the roster right now.
 
Seattle has really addressed the Oline in the last two years. Brought in Rice to stretch the field. The only real concern is QB and that might mean more carries for lynch. I'd gamble on him as a low RB3/high RB4 if the value was there at the draft and wouldn't be surprised if he finished with RB2 stats.

 
I know he didn't play last week but how has the O-line looked so far this preseason? It has to be better right?

 
Seahawks | Russell Okung expected to be ready for opener Mon Aug 22, 01:52 PM Seattle Seahawks OT Russell Okung (ankle) is expected to be ready for the start of the regular season after suffering an ankle injury in the first preseason game. The injury is not as bad as first thought.
That's promising but he hasn't been durable in his first two seasons and the line has been playing horribly all preseason. Tarvaris has looked lost tooThey are bringing in Andre Gurode which might help.

I like Lynch's talent and opportunity but I am not excited about his supporting cast at all.

 
Seahawks | Russell Okung expected to be ready for opener Mon Aug 22, 01:52 PM Seattle Seahawks OT Russell Okung (ankle) is expected to be ready for the start of the regular season after suffering an ankle injury in the first preseason game. The injury is not as bad as first thought.
That's promising but he hasn't been durable in his first two seasons and the line has been playing horribly all preseason. Tarvaris has looked lost tooThey are bringing in Andre Gurode which might help.

I like Lynch's talent and opportunity but I am not excited about his supporting cast at all.
for a visit or they signed him?
 
Lynch just has the feel of Cedric Benson 09. A guy who had a decent close to the season is in a new situation and now has a grasp on it. I think he breaks out this year and for where you can draft him (6th round and up), he's a steal.

 
Any Seahawk Homers? Anyone know how his ankle is doing? I know he missed a couple preseason games because of it.

 
Rotoworld...

Marshawn Lynch (ankle) returned to Seahawks practice Wednesday, as expected.

Lynch is on track to start Week 1 against a 49ers defense that ranked sixth in the league against the run last season and second in yards-per-carry allowed. San Francisco will be a bit more leaky this year without Aubrayo Franklin and Takeo Spikes, but Lynch's mediocre talent makes him a poor bet for more than 75 yards anyway. He's a low-upside flex play in the matchup.

 
Lynch has alot of talent "when" he is motivated. I have seen him in games go down with a light breeze then games where it takes 5 guys to get him down. His run in the playoffs wasn't just a fluke he can be a really good runner when his heart is in it. Seattle has added alot on offense and Carrol is known to get points from his rb's given time. Also he has no real competetion for the lead back role -- Forsett and Leon might take passing downs but thats about it.

Basically he can be a 1300 total yard 10 plus TD back or a 800 yd 7-8 TD back. His current ADP though is decent value for the risk reward.

 
Any thoughts on Lynch's value right now? I think the best play is to wait one more week. He didn't do anything week 1 and most likely won't do anything this week either against Pittsburgh. A panicked owner may see a 'trend' and may be willing to sell low. After the Steelers he faces Arizona, Atlanta, and NYG before his bye. Then Cleveland and Cincinatti after the bye. You can then sell high(er) before he faces Dallas then Baltimore.

I think he might actually hold higher value than Moreno, Addai, or Bush. Thoughts?

 
Article in the Daily Cal this week on Lynch and Forsett:http://www.dailycal.org/2011/09/14/brothers-in-arms/

“We never even thought that we would have a chance to play together in the NFL,” Forsett says. “I knew the type of player he was and the asset that he could be to our team. I was excited to bring what we had at Cal here.” The trade came at a time when Forsett was just starting to come into his own as an NFL starter. And even though Lynch surpassed Forsett on the depth chart and halted his chance to cement himself as a legitimate starter, Forsett could not have been happier to be playing with his old roommate. “He was so excited to have Marshawn coming to Seattle,” Gould says. “Those guys don’t care about stats. All they care about is winning.” The 2011 season marks the first time since 2006 that the two backs will play together for a full season. And the pair will undoubtedly be looking to rekindle the same magic they shared back in Berkeley. “We set off each other in the backfield, and we want each other to succeed,” Forsett says. “We created a nice combo, both at Cal and here today.”
 
Any thoughts on Lynch's value right now? I think the best play is to wait one more week. He didn't do anything week 1 and most likely won't do anything this week either against Pittsburgh. A panicked owner may see a 'trend' and may be willing to sell low. After the Steelers he faces Arizona, Atlanta, and NYG before his bye. Then Cleveland and Cincinatti after the bye. You can then sell high(er) before he faces Dallas then Baltimore.I think he might actually hold higher value than Moreno, Addai, or Bush. Thoughts?
Its a nice strategy. Hopefully it plays out. I have him benched this week obviously but I do think he will produce there after pretty consistently.
 
Any thoughts on Lynch's value right now? I think the best play is to wait one more week. He didn't do anything week 1 and most likely won't do anything this week either against Pittsburgh. A panicked owner may see a 'trend' and may be willing to sell low. After the Steelers he faces Arizona, Atlanta, and NYG before his bye. Then Cleveland and Cincinatti after the bye. You can then sell high(er) before he faces Dallas then Baltimore.I think he might actually hold higher value than Moreno, Addai, or Bush. Thoughts?
I think Lynch will the type of RB that is worth more just to own then trade later. His value will likely hit rock bottom after this weekend, but even if he bounces back, I think Seattle's entire offensive outlook will hold his perceived value down. Unless he starts reeling off monster games and owners without RBs start looking to trade, he probably is worth more to his current owners on their team.
 
Any thoughts on Lynch's value right now? I think the best play is to wait one more week. He didn't do anything week 1 and most likely won't do anything this week either against Pittsburgh. A panicked owner may see a 'trend' and may be willing to sell low. After the Steelers he faces Arizona, Atlanta, and NYG before his bye. Then Cleveland and Cincinatti after the bye. You can then sell high(er) before he faces Dallas then Baltimore.I think he might actually hold higher value than Moreno, Addai, or Bush. Thoughts?
I read that Gallery was out of the last game. That definitely hurt last week and will be an upgrade soon. I suspect there is no value in trading him at this point (would you even want Moreno?). If his o-line is healthy then week 3 looks to be his breakout week. As his line gels, things will get better. I don't think anyone drafted him expecting to play him every week, but he will be a great matchup play for the rest of the year. I don't really like Chicago & SF as his week 15 and 16 matchups, though. It would be prudent to at least see what you can get after week 7 vs. Cleveland.
 
Any thoughts on Lynch's value right now? I think the best play is to wait one more week. He didn't do anything week 1 and most likely won't do anything this week either against Pittsburgh. A panicked owner may see a 'trend' and may be willing to sell low. After the Steelers he faces Arizona, Atlanta, and NYG before his bye. Then Cleveland and Cincinatti after the bye. You can then sell high(er) before he faces Dallas then Baltimore.

I think he might actually hold higher value than Moreno, Addai, or Bush. Thoughts?
I think Lynch will the type of RB that is worth more just to own then trade later. His value will likely hit rock bottom after this weekend, but even if he bounces back, I think Seattle's entire offensive outlook will hold his perceived value down. Unless he starts reeling off monster games and owners without RBs start looking to trade, he probably is worth more to his current owners on their team.
Maybe you're right. But is that so bad? So what is his value? Who would/could you trade away for him?
 
I tried to trade him straight up for Lance Moore and got turned down.

But that was after I picked him up off waivers after someone cut him last week. lol I love when people panic, allows me to scoop up value.

 
Any thoughts on Lynch's value right now? I think the best play is to wait one more week. He didn't do anything week 1 and most likely won't do anything this week either against Pittsburgh. A panicked owner may see a 'trend' and may be willing to sell low. After the Steelers he faces Arizona, Atlanta, and NYG before his bye. Then Cleveland and Cincinatti after the bye. You can then sell high(er) before he faces Dallas then Baltimore.

I think he might actually hold higher value than Moreno, Addai, or Bush. Thoughts?
I think Lynch will the type of RB that is worth more just to own then trade later. His value will likely hit rock bottom after this weekend, but even if he bounces back, I think Seattle's entire offensive outlook will hold his perceived value down. Unless he starts reeling off monster games and owners without RBs start looking to trade, he probably is worth more to his current owners on their team.
Maybe you're right. But is that so bad? So what is his value? Who would/could you trade away for him?
If I was to target him, it would be after this weekend. Of course that's a calculated risk. There's always the slight chance he does well vs the Steelers. Assuming he's just average at best, I'd offer a low end WR2 or WR3 type for him. I think the RBs listed there are in the ball park. I like the strategy you are suggesting though, it's the best way to try to maximize value for him. Now he just needs to turn on Beast MODE
 
I have Lynch as a RB5 in a 12 team PPR redraft league. I offered him up to some Seattle homers for guys they picked up fresh off the WW this week and was shot down. I about waived him this week for Rex Grossman until I decided to cut an injured Marcedes Lewis instead. For those that want Lynch, I suspect you can get him very cheap.

Cable has produced good fantasy backs despite 8 guys stacked in the box for years but the o-line in Seattle is trash.

 
Lynch is averaging 13 touches a game and is clearly the #1 back on the Seahawks. The Hawks' offense seems to be improving which will only help get him goal line opportunities and stay competitive in games so they don't have to abandon the run early. The chance of them using no huddle with Forsett and Washington is obviously troubling but Lynch isn't too shabby in the no-huddle either. I think acquiring Lynch on the cheap will be a good move heading into the byes with such a shallow talent pool at running back this year.

 
Lynch just has the feel of Cedric Benson 09. A guy who had a decent close to the season is in a new situation and now has a grasp on it. I think he breaks out this year and for where you can draft him (6th round and up), he's a steal.
Took awhile but he's been paying dividends in the 2nd half, when you need him most.
 
Rotoworld...

Marshawn Lynch (ankle) returned to Seahawks practice Wednesday, as expected.

Lynch is on track to start Week 1 against a 49ers defense that ranked sixth in the league against the run last season and second in yards-per-carry allowed. San Francisco will be a bit more leaky this year without Aubrayo Franklin and Takeo Spikes, but Lynch's mediocre talent makes him a poor bet for more than 75 yards anyway. He's a low-upside flex play in the matchup.
...per the usual
 
Any ideas as to what we're looking at in terms of value next year? I see two scenarios. (1) They trade/sign a decent veteran (2) They trade up and draft Barkley.I'm thinking he'll be a second round pick unless he really falls off pace. Given that his pace is really a combination of two totally different data sets (first 6 games he averaged 12.3 carries/gm, last 5 he's averaged 25.6 carries/gm), I find it unlikely he'll fall off the combined average of 18.4 carries/gm. If he finishes strong with double digit rushing touchdowns then he could be considered in the late first given either of the two scenarios listed above. He finishes the season vs. StL, @ CHI, vs. SF, @ ARI. SF is tough, but he could easily end the season at or above those projected 16 game numbers in the first line.
"The guy … he blows my mind every time we step on the field," Robinson said of Lynch. "We made a commitment to run the ball a few weeks ago, right before the Dallas game, and man … he's runnin' that thang. It's a combination of things — the offensive line understanding what he's looking at, and he's understanding what the offensive line is looking at. It's also just more reps — I'm not sure how the rep count would go, but it would probably be about what OTA's would be early in the season. It's coming together."
Tom Cable as the O-line coach and 3 ex OAK on the O-line, is SEA offense turning into the Raiders Part II?
 
I have Lynch as a RB5 in a 12 team PPR redraft league. I offered him up to some Seattle homers for guys they picked up fresh off the WW this week and was shot down. I about waived him this week for Rex Grossman until I decided to cut an injured Marcedes Lewis instead. For those that want Lynch, I suspect you can get him very cheap. Cable has produced good fantasy backs despite 8 guys stacked in the box for years but the o-line in Seattle is trash.
Cue failure music.
 
Lynch is averaging 13 touches a game and is clearly the #1 back on the Seahawks. The Hawks' offense seems to be improving which will only help get him goal line opportunities and stay competitive in games so they don't have to abandon the run early. The chance of them using no huddle with Forsett and Washington is obviously troubling but Lynch isn't too shabby in the no-huddle either. I think acquiring Lynch on the cheap will be a good move heading into the byes with such a shallow talent pool at running back this year.
This shnikies guy is a genius.
 
I always thought he was the hardest runner in the league but he just never ran with consistency. Now that he's out of the committee I see his value is from grinding a team for every yard. What he's doing with good blocking is amazing to watch.

Pass the skittles

 
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Here is the question. With Okung likely out for the year, is he still a guy to count on in the playoffs? He is a must start against the Rams, but in week 15 and 16 he has the tough Bears D, and the otherworldly 49ers D

 
Here is the question. With Okung likely out for the year, is he still a guy to count on in the playoffs? He is a must start against the Rams, but in week 15 and 16 he has the tough Bears D, and the otherworldly 49ers D
I was on the fence about week 15, and viewed week 16 as a "must sit". I'm now likely sitting him for both games, as I like the matchup for my other option for w15 (Beanie vs Cleveland).
 
Here is the question. With Okung likely out for the year, is he still a guy to count on in the playoffs? He is a must start against the Rams, but in week 15 and 16 he has the tough Bears D, and the otherworldly 49ers D
I think the Seahawks philosophy is more important than their opponent. Carroll has obviously decided it's best to feed him the ball and play defense. First, I wouldn't group the Bears in with the 49ers. One team has given up 5 touchdowns and the other 0. But the main issue is will either of these teams be able to score easily enough against the Seahawks to force them to abandon the run? I don't think so. Would you be disappointed with a line of 25 carries for 80 yard plus receiving and a chance at a touchdown? I wouldn't. Obviously, if you're loaded at the running back position you're going to have a decision to make but I think Lynch is still a top 25 option even against the 49ers and against the Bears he's still a borderline must start. Obviously, losing Okung hurts but Gallery is as important or even more important in the running game.
 
What do people feel his dynasty value will be after this season? I have him on a couple of dynasty teams and have shopped him a bit for the past two years but have not been able to get any value at all for him so have continued to keep him and use him.

What do you think he would fetch after this season?

 
Here is the question. With Okung likely out for the year, is he still a guy to count on in the playoffs? He is a must start against the Rams, but in week 15 and 16 he has the tough Bears D, and the otherworldly 49ers D
I think the Seahawks philosophy is more important than their opponent. Carroll has obviously decided it's best to feed him the ball and play defense. First, I wouldn't group the Bears in with the 49ers. One team has given up 5 touchdowns and the other 0. But the main issue is will either of these teams be able to score easily enough against the Seahawks to force them to abandon the run? I don't think so. Would you be disappointed with a line of 25 carries for 80 yard plus receiving and a chance at a touchdown? I wouldn't. Obviously, if you're loaded at the running back position you're going to have a decision to make but I think Lynch is still a top 25 option even against the 49ers and against the Bears he's still a borderline must start. Obviously, losing Okung hurts but Gallery is as important or even more important in the running game.
Thanks for the thoughts. I think I agree with you about the Bears, but I think that has to do with my backs doing well against them both times I've had someone going against the Bears this year (McCoy and Best). I probably have no choice but to play Lynch regardless because of injuries to my team. My top backup at RB would be McCluster (I start Murray, McCoy, and Lynch as my flex). If I start another player at flex, it would be either Greg Olsen or Michael Crabtree. Crabtree isn't a terrible option in PPR, but the RB is a much better option. I just wish Lynch was more involved in the passing game, in the event he gets shut down by the 49ers.
 
Here is the question. With Okung likely out for the year, is he still a guy to count on in the playoffs? He is a must start against the Rams, but in week 15 and 16 he has the tough Bears D, and the otherworldly 49ers D
I think the Seahawks philosophy is more important than their opponent. Carroll has obviously decided it's best to feed him the ball and play defense. First, I wouldn't group the Bears in with the 49ers. One team has given up 5 touchdowns and the other 0. But the main issue is will either of these teams be able to score easily enough against the Seahawks to force them to abandon the run? I don't think so. Would you be disappointed with a line of 25 carries for 80 yard plus receiving and a chance at a touchdown? I wouldn't. Obviously, if you're loaded at the running back position you're going to have a decision to make but I think Lynch is still a top 25 option even against the 49ers and against the Bears he's still a borderline must start. Obviously, losing Okung hurts but Gallery is as important or even more important in the running game.
Uh, not quite sure about that. Maybe now with all the injuries, but to be honest, I haven't been impressed with Gallery. Probably has the most penalties of any OL, including false starts. And he pulls well but I'm not sure about his run blocking otherwise. He's the weak link of the core OL (3 of which are now injured).
 

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