Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Player Page Link: Marshawn Lynch Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

I am a fan of Lynch's no nonsense running style, but it can lead to injuries. This can be seen by the fact he has played in 16 games only once in his career (2010). I think the Seahawks are in a division where they will be in enough close games where Lynch will get his work in. I do think they will try to keep him on a "pitch count" so to speak though, and will have similar numbers to last year.

275-1175-10 28-200-0

 

[Shutout]

Lynch=MBIII.

Beast of a ferocious runner.

Got his money.

Will never be the same again over the course of an entire year.

 

[MAC_32]

Lynch=MBIII.Beast of a ferocious runner.Got his money.Will never be the same again over the course of an entire year.

Looking at his career trajectory, 2011 was the outlier and it makes sense. If he falls, sure, but I don't expect that to happen.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I hope the majority of the people feel the way the last two people feel so his value drops. He's one of the most talented backs in the league running in a run oriented system. He has the ability and situation to be the #1 back in fantasy football.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vyh5QoJYJDs

ETA: Because he is on the Seahawks and little nationally is known about them I expect the majority of people to downgrade him.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Looking at his career trajectory, 2011 touchdowns were the outlier

Career #s vs 2011 #sYards/carry: 4.0 vs 4.2

Carries/game: 16 vs 19

Catches/game: 2.0 vs 1.9

Touches/TD: 35/TD vs 24/TD

The TDs won't be repeated IMO, but the rest of it is pretty much par for the course. And those career numbers include two seasons when he was splitting time with Fred Jackson (hardly a knock on Lynch, as Jackson proved last year).

So Lynch is pretty much the same guy he's always been -- he's just with a bit better line and isn't sharing touches.

With a healthier O-line that's been together a bit longer, Rice returning, and potentially better QB play I think it'll be another good year for the makers of Skittles:

304-1292-10/32-228-0

Which makes him a high-end RB2 at roughly 15 PPG.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Looking at his career trajectory, 2011 touchdowns were the outlier

Career #s vs 2011 #sYards/carry: 4.0 vs 4.2

Carries/game: 16 vs 19

Catches/game: 2.0 vs 1.9

Touches/TD: 35/TD vs 24/TD

The TDs won't be repeated IMO, but the rest of it is pretty much par for the course. And those career numbers include two seasons when he was splitting time with Fred Jackson (hardly a knock on Lynch, as Jackson proved last year).

2 different teams w/ 2 very different systems...... so how can you make a judgement on TD numbers? Just curious.

 

[johnadams]

Looking at his career trajectory, 2011 touchdowns were the outlier

Career #s vs 2011 #sYards/carry: 4.0 vs 4.2

Carries/game: 16 vs 19

Catches/game: 2.0 vs 1.9

Touches/TD: 35/TD vs 24/TD

The TDs won't be repeated IMO, but the rest of it is pretty much par for the course. And those career numbers include two seasons when he was splitting time with Fred Jackson (hardly a knock on Lynch, as Jackson proved last year).

So Lynch is pretty much the same guy he's always been -- he's just with a bit better line and isn't sharing touches.

With a healthier O-line that's been together a bit longer, Rice returning, and potentially better QB play I think it'll be another good year for the makers of Skittles:

304-1292-10/32-228-0

Which makes him a high-end RB2 at roughly 15 PPG.

Well done. I'd value him a bit higher the RB15 as I see him as one of the safer bets to hit his projections.

 

[MAC_32]

a high-end RB2 at roughly 15 PPG.

Certainly his ceiling, but his floor is much much lower.Given his production to date and skill set I trust others to stay healthier than him. At what I expect his cost to be anyway. If he falls I'll certainly consider him like I did last year, just doubt it happens.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

a high-end RB2 at roughly 15 PPG.

Certainly his ceiling, but his floor is much much lower.Given his production to date and skill set I trust others to stay healthier than him. At what I expect his cost to be anyway. If he falls I'll certainly consider him like I did last year, just doubt it happens.

Considering he's been super durable to date I'm not sure I can agree with you on the injuries thing. At least not beyond the high risk that all RBs carry.And that's not his ceiling -- he scored about 10% more PPG last year than I'm projecting here.On the TDs/game... it's a guess and TDs are super variable anyhow. Gotta start somewhere.

 

[Bayhawks]

Looking at his career trajectory, 2011 was the outlier and it makes sense. If he falls, sure, but I don't expect that to happen.

Outlier, with regards to what? His TD per touch % prior to last season was 3%, last season it was 4%.

His career YPC prior to last season was 3.9 ypc, last year it was 4.2 ypc.

His career yard/reception prior to last season was 7.0 ypr, last year it was 7.6 ypr.

His career touches/game prior to last season was 17 touches/game, last year it was 21 touches/game.

It seems the only real "outlier" from last year was the amount of touches/game he received. However, when you consider that Seattle's QB situation is unsettled, their WR corps has question marks, their HC has a history of reliance on the running game (average of 367 RB carries/year during his 6 year NFL HC career), and there are no other proven NFL RBs (or highly-touted rookies) on the Seahawks roster, it would be reasonable to assume that Lynch would stand to sustain that same type of workload, thus preventing it from being an "outlier" from this point on.

I don't like to include injuries in my projections, so I am projecting Lynch for:

290 carries, 1200 yards, 10 TD, 25 recs, 200 yard, 1 TD

 

[MAC_32]

a high-end RB2 at roughly 15 PPG.

Certainly his ceiling, but his floor is much much lower.Given his production to date and skill set I trust others to stay healthier than him. At what I expect his cost to be anyway. If he falls I'll certainly consider him like I did last year, just doubt it happens.

Considering he's been super durable to date I'm not sure I can agree with you on the injuries thing. At least not beyond the high risk that all RBs carry.And that's not his ceiling -- he scored about 10% more PPG last year than I'm projecting here.On the TDs/game... it's a guess and TDs are super variable anyhow. Gotta start somewhere.

I strongly disagree with him being super durable and his punishing running style usually is a recipe for a shorter career, at least at a peak level anyway. He's out there every week but I've watched him many times where it looks like he's playing at half speed. Was it due to injury? or effort? I don't know but either answer is a bad one. He was a very ordinary player throughout 2009 and 2010 until that playoff game vs. New Orleans. He was again to start 2011, he finally sat out with an injury vs. Cleveland before sucking it up against Cincy. Then all of a sudden the light turned on and he burned it up the 2nd half of the season. That just doesn't smell right. Pedestrian for 2 1/2 years with the exception of one game (which was watched by the entire football watching nation) then - boom.Everything I've heard and read about the guy says class act so I'm not rooting against him, this just doesn't pass the smell test. I'd rather be wrong about him on someone else's team. At least at the expected cost. I'll gladly buy him dirt cheap again like I did last year because of what he does when he's 100% but I doubt I can do that.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I strongly disagree with him being super durable and his punishing running style usually is a recipe for a shorter career, at least at a peak level anyway. He's out there every week but I've watched him many times where it looks like he's playing at half speed. Was it due to injury? or effort? I don't know but either answer is a bad one. He was a very ordinary player throughout 2009 and 2010 until that playoff game vs. New Orleans. He was again to start 2011, he finally sat out with an injury vs. Cleveland before sucking it up against Cincy. Then all of a sudden the light turned on and he burned it up the 2nd half of the season. That just doesn't smell right. Pedestrian for 2 1/2 years with the exception of one game (which was watched by the entire football watching nation) then - boom.

1)Im not sure where you get he looks like he's playing at half speed? He's one of the most difficult backs to take down in the NFL and his second/third effort is insane. I watched all the games he has played as a hawk fwiw.2)He really picked up the second half of the season mainly because of the Oline. Cable was new at the start of the year and even himself said its gonna take 8 games or so before things click. Once the Oline play picked up (despite injuries along the line) the hawks running attack really started going. It wasn't a change in Lynch....it was mainly a change in the play of the line.

 

[menobrown]

Got his money.Will never be the same again

This opinion I seem to see all over the place is based on what exactly?

 

[Dragon1952]

This is exactly why this spotlight series is so useless. It's the same as any other post during the off-season about any specific player. Half like the player and project greatness, the other half doesn't and projects mediocrity. I'm not sure how this helps anyone.

 

[Jercules]

I don't understand why his TD numbers are expected to decrease. Because he got TDs in X consecutive games? Perhaps he has more multiple TD games, now that Seattle has a glimmer of hope at QB and some established weapons (including two outstanding TEs, which gives them the chance to successfully copy NE).

We have every reason to think the Seattle offense will improve, and plenty of people around the league thought Lynch outperformed Peterson last year. Sometimes you have to forget the trees and consider the forest; this man is a beast.

 

[Pots]

ETA: Because he is on the Seahawks and little nationally is known about them I expect the majority of people to downgrade him.

Really? Hows that been working with other players?

 

[Young 8]

Got his money.Will never be the same again

This opinion I seem to see all over the place is based on what exactly?

His behaviourAt least when he was in Buffalo

 

[grateful zed]

ill take him before is adp

 

[Bayhawks]

Got his money.Will never be the same again

This opinion I seem to see all over the place is based on what exactly?

His behaviourAt least when he was in Buffalo

care to elaborate?

 

[Pipes]

People forget that he put up those numbers behind a beat up offensive line and an terrible passing game. He was Seattle's lone threat and teams still couldn't stop him. His numbers could take a slight hit but I don't seee them dropping off that much.

 

[Grahamburn]

This is exactly why this spotlight series is so useless. It's the same as any other post during the off-season about any specific player. Half like the player and project greatness, the other half doesn't and projects mediocrity. I'm not sure how this helps anyone.

The Rules In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines: •Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)•Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"•Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

These threads are great when people post projections. If someone says "he just played hard last year for a contract," but they don't back up the statement with a projection then the threads are definitely useless. How hard will he play in 2012? His ypc wasn't really any different than his career average. You can probably expect 4.2 again this season if not better with a healthy and talented Seattle offensive line. The question is the TD production and touch totals. He had 303 total touches (285 carries, 28 receptions) last season. He did miss a game, and had a few early season starts with single digit carries. Starting with the Dallas game though, Lynch averaged 23.44 carries a game, which would be 375 over 16 games. That number isn't sustainable, but 270-285 carries should be Lynch's workload at a minimum.The Seahawks did add a young RB with some talent in Robert Turbin, but he's likely not an immediate threat to Lynch, and neither is Leon Washington. Lynch is one of a handful of runners left monopolizing 75%+ of the running back touches, and anything around the goalline. That is a valuable commodity in today's NFL.275 carries at 4.3 is 1,182 rushing yards, 35 receptions at 6.7 is 235 receiving yards, and 11 total TDs.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

care to elaborate?

Hit and run. Getting pulled over with a gun in his car. Some sort of weird altercation with a lady over a $20 bill at Applebees.I like the guy and think the last two things were overblown, but they guy has seemed to have a knack for being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

 

[Bayhawks]

care to elaborate?

Hit and run. Getting pulled over with a gun in his car. Some sort of weird altercation with a lady over a $20 bill at Applebees.I like the guy and think the last two things were overblown, but they guy has seemed to have a knack for being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

I am aware of those incidents. I fail to see what they have to do with the concept of Lynch having "got his money," so now his production will suffer.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

care to elaborate?

Hit and run. Getting pulled over with a gun in his car. Some sort of weird altercation with a lady over a $20 bill at Applebees.I like the guy and think the last two things were overblown, but they guy has seemed to have a knack for being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

I am aware of those incidents. I fail to see what they have to do with the concept of Lynch having "got his money," so now his production will suffer.

Oh, I agree they don't have much to do with 2012 and are generally overblown. But I think that's why some people are concerned.

 

[MAC_32]

If someone says "he just played hard last year for a contract," but they don't back up the statement with a projection then the threads are definitely useless.

So if you're a person who doesn't believe in projections as their usefulness doesn't justify the time it takes to create them you shouldn't post in these threads?

 

[ImTheScientist]

If someone says "he just played hard last year for a contract," but they don't back up the statement with a projection then the threads are definitely useless.

So if you're a person who doesn't believe in projections as their usefulness doesn't justify the time it takes to create them you shouldn't post in these threads?

Q: Does every person who posts in these threads create their own projections?A: NoQ: Is it fun to talk about and debate?A: Yes, thats why people come to fantasy football forums.Doing your own projections is a useless exercise as they won't be right. Even the Pro's like FBG's always get it wrong. More important is understanding value and where players are being taking, and who has value to you. Taking the time to assign a stat to a players isn't needed to do that.

 

[Grahamburn]

If someone says "he just played hard last year for a contract," but they don't back up the statement with a projection then the threads are definitely useless.

So if you're a person who doesn't believe in projections as their usefulness doesn't justify the time it takes to create them you shouldn't post in these threads?

It's an observation. I was responding to the post regarding the usefulness of these threads. I personally don't care. I can skip over the posts not including projections. There are several posters here who only show up this time of year to post well thought out projections, and that's what I read these threads for.

 

[Bayhawks]

If someone says "he just played hard last year for a contract," but they don't back up the statement with a projection then the threads are definitely useless.

So if you're a person who doesn't believe in projections as their usefulness doesn't justify the time it takes to create them you shouldn't post in these threads?

It's an observation. I was responding to the post regarding the usefulness of these threads. I personally don't care. I can skip over the posts not including projections. There are several posters here who only show up this time of year to post well thought out projections, and that's what I read these threads for.

Even if you don't agree in projections as a FF tool, reading the thoughts BEHIND those projections is often insightful, and can cause you to rank/tier/guess where players belong differently than if you didn't read these threads.

 

[mjr]

I think some people are expecting Lynch to mail it in after his big payday at least in some small association to Chris Johnson's situation just last year. If CJ played up to his potential in 2011, I think fewer people would expect it of Lynch in 2012. He was somewhat a disgruntled RB in Buffalo those years ago, but I don't think that should justify any probability he's the type to give up once he gets what he wants.

Anyway, Seattle finished up with 444 rushing attempts last year, which put them 15th amoungst the league. Only 89 of those (20%) were for 1st downs. With the 'Hawks getting 30% of their 1sts via passing, it shows that there were probably more 3rd and longs than desired. Though I don't expect the world of Flynn, I think he can get this team into more than the 509 passing attempts from last year, and while that might lead to a few less carries for Marshawn, I also think Flynn can produce a few more 3rd and short situations than Jackson did, which I can see Lynch getting a few more carries for the short gains despite some reports stating Seattle wants to scale back Lynch's carries to keep him healthy (sometimes it just doesn't work out that way). As a result, I would expect Lynch's ypc average to drop slightly from 4.2 to maybe 4.0 or 3.9. I think with 30-40 less carries that would put him at around the 1000 mark, + or- 75 yards or so.

Seattle's passing attack had about a 60% completion rate in 2011, and while I think Flynn should eventually lock up the starting job, I don't expect to see drastic improvements in the stat. With maybe a few more passing TDs as a possibility, I think Lynch matching or exceeding his 12 from last year will be a little more difficult to do if things actually pan out for the better in the QB department. 8-10 Tds is about what I expect of Lynch.

I'll say 1050 yards/9 TDs with a few more receptions at 35 and 255 yards with 2 scores.

 

[MAC_32]

If someone says "he just played hard last year for a contract," but they don't back up the statement with a projection then the threads are definitely useless.

So if you're a person who doesn't believe in projections as their usefulness doesn't justify the time it takes to create them you shouldn't post in these threads?

It's an observation. I was responding to the post regarding the usefulness of these threads. I personally don't care. I can skip over the posts not including projections. There are several posters here who only show up this time of year to post well thought out projections, and that's what I read these threads for.

Even if you don't agree in projections as a FF tool, reading the thoughts BEHIND those projections is often insightful, and can cause you to rank/tier/guess where players belong differently than if you didn't read these threads.

I'm only interested in reading the thoughts behind the projections, that's all I provide as well. I don't see the problem with it, for those that only want projections + analysis breeze over posts that don't have numbers in them.There are many cases to point to that say Marshawn's due for a regression, just look at the long list of post contract year production dips. Looking at his production and the action behind the scenes (on and off the field) I don't understand how so many seem to not be worried about him this year. I bought Marshawn last year because he looked like a junk bond, but given his opportunity and the fact that he had done it before there was a reasonable chance the flier could pan out. It did, which was great for me last year. But now he's a top 30 pick? There's a reason this guy has been valued as low as he has in recent years, people's current expectations look like an over correction to me.

He wasn't as bad as he was being valued last year, but he isn't nearly as good as he's being valued this year. I think there are better risks to take at his current cost.

 

[kutta]

I think some people are expecting Lynch to mail it in after his big payday at least in some small association to Chris Johnson's situation just last year. If CJ played up to his potential in 2011, I think fewer people would expect it of Lynch in 2012. He was somewhat a disgruntled RB in Buffalo those years ago, but I don't think that should justify any probability he's the type to give up once he gets what he wants. Anyway, Seattle finished up with 444 rushing attempts last year, which put them 15th amoungst the league. Only 89 of those (20%) were for 1st downs. With the 'Hawks getting 30% of their 1sts via passing, it shows that there were probably more 3rd and longs than desired. Though I don't expect the world of Flynn, I think he can get this team into more than the 509 passing attempts from last year, and while that might lead to a few less carries for Marshawn, I also think Flynn can produce a few more 3rd and short situations than Jackson did, which I can see Lynch getting a few more carries for the short gains despite some reports stating Seattle wants to scale back Lynch's carries to keep him healthy (sometimes it just doesn't work out that way). As a result, I would expect Lynch's ypc average to drop slightly from 4.2 to maybe 4.0 or 3.9. I think with 30-40 less carries that would put him at around the 1000 mark, + or- 75 yards or so. Seattle's passing attack had about a 60% completion rate in 2011, and while I think Flynn should eventually lock up the starting job, I don't expect to see drastic improvements in the stat. With maybe a few more passing TDs as a possibility, I think Lynch matching or exceeding his 12 from last year will be a little more difficult to do if things actually pan out for the better in the QB department. 8-10 Tds is about what I expect of Lynch. I'll say 1050 yards/9 TDs with a few more receptions at 35 and 255 yards with 2 scores.

Nice analysis, but I think you are over thinking the effect of Flynn.If the passing game improves, that should help free up room for Lynch. 8 in the box won't be so prevalent, so his YPC should actually increase. Look at the top RB's. They all have pretty good passing games with above average QB's. They don't completely focus on the passing game (like GB, NO, and NE do) and the passing game is good enough to keep defenses honest:Arian Foster - Matt Schaub is pretty good and Andre is a huge threat.Ray Rice - Flacco is unspectacular but decent. Passing game is good enough to keep defenses honest.McCoy - Vick has Maclin and Jackson to keep defenses out of the box, and McCoy benefits from that.I would most liken the Seattle situation with Flynn to Baltimore. Decent passing game that is not going to be the focus of the offense. It will be good enough though to keep defenses out of the box. This should free up much more room for Lynch.

 

[Grahamburn]

There are many cases to point to that say Marshawn's due for a regression, just look at the long list of post contract year production dips.

He's only had two contracts. His rookie deal and the one recently signed in the offseason. Or are you referring to issues with other players? Lynch's production wasn't other worldly in 2011. There isn't much regression to be had in his numbers.Seattle committed to him as their lead back. Lynch didn't hold out for a new deal. He earned one. This situation isn't similar to his two down years in Buffalo when he was on a poor offensive team sharing the football with another talented player.

 

[MAC_32]

There are many cases to point to that say Marshawn's due for a regression, just look at the long list of post contract year production dips.

He's only had two contracts. His rookie deal and the one recently signed in the offseason. Or are you referring to issues with other players? Lynch's production wasn't other worldly in 2011. There isn't much regression to be had in his numbers.Seattle committed to him as their lead back. Lynch didn't hold out for a new deal. He earned one. This situation isn't similar to his two down years in Buffalo when he was on a poor offensive team sharing the football with another talented player.

Other players. Seeing him do very little for a variety of reasons outside of one spotlight game over a 2 1/2 year period then all of a sudden go nuts the last 10 weeks of last season signals red flags to me.

 

[menobrown]

There are many cases to point to that say Marshawn's due for a regression, just look at the long list of post contract year production dips.

He's only had two contracts. His rookie deal and the one recently signed in the offseason. Or are you referring to issues with other players? Lynch's production wasn't other worldly in 2011. There isn't much regression to be had in his numbers.Seattle committed to him as their lead back. Lynch didn't hold out for a new deal. He earned one. This situation isn't similar to his two down years in Buffalo when he was on a poor offensive team sharing the football with another talented player.

Other players. Seeing him do very little for a variety of reasons outside of one spotlight game over a 2 1/2 year period then all of a sudden go nuts the last 10 weeks of last season signals red flags to me.

I constantly hear the concern over Lynch performing once he gets paid but for instance I never hear it muttered when it comes to Arian Foster or McCoy. Did not hear mentioned regarding ADP last year and if Ray Rice or Forte ever get new deals I don't imagine I'm going to hear it so much regarding them either. That's why I asked the question earlier why so many people want to keep spouting off this opinion regarding Lynch and I've honestly yet to hear a valid reason. I do see some people try and say he only performed well last season and based on simple stats that ignore his supporting cast that's arguably accurate. If you dig into deeper stats, such as one's compiled by PFF that show stuff like yards after contact which if nothing else should be a pretty good measure of how hard a RB is running than you'll see Lynch has consistently ranked highly in this regard.Personally I've never seen a single thing regarding the way he plays the game to suggest he's going to relax once he's been paid. The only thing I really don't like about Lynch is I wish he was utilized more in the passing game and because I do think he plays so hard and runs with such aggressiveness I think it's fear to worry about his longevity but that's a dynasty concern, nothing to worry about this season.

 

[Eminence]

The thing that impresses me is what Lynch did as the only real threat on that Offense. 12 TD as the focal point of that Offense is impressive, whoever is QB'ing probably won't be chucking it up in the Red Zone. They will call Lynch's number, again.

I think he's overvalued, but would love to have him on my team at the right price.

 

[MAC_32]

There are many cases to point to that say Marshawn's due for a regression, just look at the long list of post contract year production dips.

He's only had two contracts. His rookie deal and the one recently signed in the offseason. Or are you referring to issues with other players? Lynch's production wasn't other worldly in 2011. There isn't much regression to be had in his numbers.Seattle committed to him as their lead back. Lynch didn't hold out for a new deal. He earned one. This situation isn't similar to his two down years in Buffalo when he was on a poor offensive team sharing the football with another talented player.

Other players. Seeing him do very little for a variety of reasons outside of one spotlight game over a 2 1/2 year period then all of a sudden go nuts the last 10 weeks of last season signals red flags to me.

I constantly hear the concern over Lynch performing once he gets paid but for instance I never hear it muttered when it comes to Arian Foster or McCoy. Did not hear mentioned regarding ADP last year and if Ray Rice or Forte ever get new deals I don't imagine I'm going to hear it so much regarding them either. That's why I asked the question earlier why so many people want to keep spouting off this opinion regarding Lynch and I've honestly yet to hear a valid reason. I do see some people try and say he only performed well last season and based on simple stats that ignore his supporting cast that's arguably accurate. If you dig into deeper stats, such as one's compiled by PFF that show stuff like yards after contact which if nothing else should be a pretty good measure of how hard a RB is running than you'll see Lynch has consistently ranked highly in this regard.Personally I've never seen a single thing regarding the way he plays the game to suggest he's going to relax once he's been paid. The only thing I really don't like about Lynch is I wish he was utilized more in the passing game and because I do think he plays so hard and runs with such aggressiveness I think it's fear to worry about his longevity but that's a dynasty concern, nothing to worry about this season.

Foster and McCoy didn't disappear for 2 1/2 years after being the guy for 2 years then blow up for the 10 weeks before a new contract was due, they produced pretty much from when they were given the ball. Same with Rice and Forte. However, if either of those 2 hold out into August they will tumble down my cheat sheets.

 

[menobrown]

There are many cases to point to that say Marshawn's due for a regression, just look at the long list of post contract year production dips.

He's only had two contracts. His rookie deal and the one recently signed in the offseason. Or are you referring to issues with other players? Lynch's production wasn't other worldly in 2011. There isn't much regression to be had in his numbers.Seattle committed to him as their lead back. Lynch didn't hold out for a new deal. He earned one. This situation isn't similar to his two down years in Buffalo when he was on a poor offensive team sharing the football with another talented player.

Other players. Seeing him do very little for a variety of reasons outside of one spotlight game over a 2 1/2 year period then all of a sudden go nuts the last 10 weeks of last season signals red flags to me.

I constantly hear the concern over Lynch performing once he gets paid but for instance I never hear it muttered when it comes to Arian Foster or McCoy. Did not hear mentioned regarding ADP last year and if Ray Rice or Forte ever get new deals I don't imagine I'm going to hear it so much regarding them either. That's why I asked the question earlier why so many people want to keep spouting off this opinion regarding Lynch and I've honestly yet to hear a valid reason. I do see some people try and say he only performed well last season and based on simple stats that ignore his supporting cast that's arguably accurate. If you dig into deeper stats, such as one's compiled by PFF that show stuff like yards after contact which if nothing else should be a pretty good measure of how hard a RB is running than you'll see Lynch has consistently ranked highly in this regard.Personally I've never seen a single thing regarding the way he plays the game to suggest he's going to relax once he's been paid. The only thing I really don't like about Lynch is I wish he was utilized more in the passing game and because I do think he plays so hard and runs with such aggressiveness I think it's fear to worry about his longevity but that's a dynasty concern, nothing to worry about this season.

Foster and McCoy didn't disappear for 2 1/2 years after being the guy for 2 years then blow up for the 10 weeks before a new contract was due, they produced pretty much from when they were given the ball. Same with Rice and Forte. However, if either of those 2 hold out into August they will tumble down my cheat sheets.

If you think Lynch disappeared for 2.5 years I think you are relying on some really poor information but go right ahead with it.

 

[MAC_32]

If you think Lynch disappeared for 2.5 years I think you are relying on some really poor information but go right ahead with it.

2009 - 120 rush 3.8 ypc 629 total yds 2 TD2010 - 202 rush 3.6 ypc 882 total yds 6 TD2011 (first 7 games) - 72 rush 3.6 ypc 346 total yds 3 TD

 

[xrayveggin]

games 1-8 97/398/4.1/4 and 12/91/7.6/0

games9-16 188/806/4.3/8 and 16/121/7.6/1

Hawks had worst OL in the NFL in the first half of the season last year, so the carries and YPC are both capped more by sum offense rather than effort/talent. Second half stats are likely more reflective of what to expect next season assuming not contract year issues, but maybe Turbin steals 5 carries a game.

I expect 300/1360/4.4/13 and 30/240/3

 

[menobrown]

If you think Lynch disappeared for 2.5 years I think you are relying on some really poor information but go right ahead with it.

2009 - 120 rush 3.8 ypc 629 total yds 2 TD2010 - 202 rush 3.6 ypc 882 total yds 6 TD2011 (first 7 games) - 72 rush 3.6 ypc 346 total yds 3 TD

Like I said poor information, need to dig a little deeper. Metrics have gotten advanced. . That is unless you think a RB's YPC is completely determined by him and him only and has absolutely nothing to do with OL or supporting cast. In that case you would be on to something.

 

[ImTheScientist]

If you think Lynch disappeared for 2.5 years I think you are relying on some really poor information but go right ahead with it.

2009 - 120 rush 3.8 ypc 629 total yds 2 TD2010 - 202 rush 3.6 ypc 882 total yds 6 TD2011 (first 7 games) - 72 rush 3.6 ypc 346 total yds 3 TD

Like I said poor information, need to dig a little deeper. Metrics have gotten advanced. . That is unless you think a RB's YPC is completely determined by him and him only and has absolutely nothing to do with OL or supporting cast. In that case you would be on to something.

 

[MAC_32]

If you think Lynch disappeared for 2.5 years I think you are relying on some really poor information but go right ahead with it.

2009 - 120 rush 3.8 ypc 629 total yds 2 TD2010 - 202 rush 3.6 ypc 882 total yds 6 TD2011 (first 7 games) - 72 rush 3.6 ypc 346 total yds 3 TD

Like I said poor information, need to dig a little deeper. Metrics have gotten advanced. . That is unless you think a RB's YPC is completely determined by him and him only and has absolutely nothing to do with OL or supporting cast. In that case you would be on to something.

As I have at least eluded to (or meant to) from the beginning, I know there's data that explains his poor performance. Just seems like excuses to me more than anything - selective bias. This situation just doesn't pass the smell test. Perform decently on lousy teams for 2 years. Then poorly on lousy teams for 2 1/2 years. Then all of a sudden blow up right before he's due for another contract. If he didn't cost a 2nd or a 3rd round pick I'd be more likely to gamble due to the upside he showed last year, but at that price it's just reckless.

 

[King of the Jungle]

If you think Lynch disappeared for 2.5 years I think you are relying on some really poor information but go right ahead with it.

2009 - 120 rush 3.8 ypc 629 total yds 2 TD2010 - 202 rush 3.6 ypc 882 total yds 6 TD2011 (first 7 games) - 72 rush 3.6 ypc 346 total yds 3 TD

Like I said poor information, need to dig a little deeper. Metrics have gotten advanced. . That is unless you think a RB's YPC is completely determined by him and him only and has absolutely nothing to do with OL or supporting cast. In that case you would be on to something.

As I have at least eluded to (or meant to) from the beginning, I know there's data that explains his poor performance. Just seems like excuses to me more than anything - selective bias. This situation just doesn't pass the smell test. Perform decently on lousy teams for 2 years. Then poorly on lousy teams for 2 1/2 years. Then all of a sudden blow up right before he's due for another contract. If he didn't cost a 2nd or a 3rd round pick I'd be more likely to gamble due to the upside he showed last year, but at that price it's just reckless.

IMO it makes okay sense. New oline coach and online injuries to deal with. I think the oline gelled and Lynch took off. He is not the best RB in the league but he is in the top half IMO. You either think he is a thug/slacker or you watch his highlight reel and be amazed. FBG legend Matt Waldman thought he was a better runner out of college over AP...and I don't think it was a crazy analysis. He is a true RB with amazing balance and vision. His days in Buffalo are over so let us all move on from that. Better environment and a little maturity can make a bit of difference. *He owns the single greatest play in Seattle history*He is an icon in Seattle*Who doesn't enjoy being an icon?*He likes skittles*He enters this outer-human realm called Beast ModeSeriously though I think the guy has matured and become a professional. I don't expect any less than the effort he gave last season. And please watch his last season highlights to appreciate the effort. Enter paycheck talk... I get that. I also think he now embraces what he has become. I could be wrong..this season will define him.

 

[lazyike]

games 1-8 97/398/4.1/4 and 12/91/7.6/0games9-16 188/806/4.3/8 and 16/121/7.6/1Hawks had worst OL in the NFL in the first half of the season last year, so the carries and YPC are both capped more by sum offense rather than effort/talent. Second half stats are likely more reflective of what to expect next season assuming not contract year issues, but maybe Turbin steals 5 carries a game.I expect 300/1360/4.4/13 and 30/240/3

Could you elaborate on the changes to the offensive line from the first half to the last half. In on of my leagues Lynch was traded once and dropped by 2 owners before he finally started playing in the second half. I was one who traded for him and then dropped his sorry a$#. I just can't see wanting him as anymore than a RB2 or RB3 unless you can convince me we won't see some of what he did in those first 8 games. For me he is one of the most overrated players this year.

 

[ZWK]

Lynch's biggest problem, for his first year and a half in Seattle, was that the Seahawks kept getting blown out and so he didn't get the ball. In 2010 (as I discussed here), he played 14 games for Seattle (playoffs included), and in 7 of those games Seattle was down by double digits by halftime. He averaged 9/28/0.0 rushing in those 7 games. In the other 7 games, he averaged 18/73/1.0.

Last year, for the first half of the season it looked like more of the same. In 4 of Lynch's first 6 games, Seattle was down by double digits at halftime. He averaged 11/23/0.5 in those 4 games, and 16/86/0.5 in the other 2. But then Seattle turned it around (partly because of easier opponents, partly their defense, partly their OL, and partly Lynch himself). Over the rest of the season they were in every game - they only trailed at halftime twice (both by 7 points), and in both of those games they caught back up in the 2nd half. Lynch averaged 23/105/1.0 over his last 9 games, and had 19+ carries in every single one of them.

Some of the causality is in the other direction - when Lynch gets bottled up then Seattle falls behind, and when he plays well that they at least keep it close. But a lot of it is that Seattle has to abandon the run when they fall behind, and they switch to their receiving RBs (so Lynch doesn't get extra receptions to make up for his lack of carries). If Seattle is good enough to stay in every game, Lynch could lead the league in carries this year (and get the yards and TDs to go with them). If they're not, he could disappear for long stretches.

 

[mad sweeney]

There are many cases to point to that say Marshawn's due for a regression, just look at the long list of post contract year production dips.

He's only had two contracts. His rookie deal and the one recently signed in the offseason. Or are you referring to issues with other players? Lynch's production wasn't other worldly in 2011. There isn't much regression to be had in his numbers.Seattle committed to him as their lead back. Lynch didn't hold out for a new deal. He earned one. This situation isn't similar to his two down years in Buffalo when he was on a poor offensive team sharing the football with another talented player.

Other players. Seeing him do very little for a variety of reasons outside of one spotlight game over a 2 1/2 year period then all of a sudden go nuts the last 10 weeks of last season signals red flags to me.

I constantly hear the concern over Lynch performing once he gets paid but for instance I never hear it muttered when it comes to Arian Foster or McCoy. Did not hear mentioned regarding ADP last year and if Ray Rice or Forte ever get new deals I don't imagine I'm going to hear it so much regarding them either. That's why I asked the question earlier why so many people want to keep spouting off this opinion regarding Lynch and I've honestly yet to hear a valid reason. I do see some people try and say he only performed well last season and based on simple stats that ignore his supporting cast that's arguably accurate. If you dig into deeper stats, such as one's compiled by PFF that show stuff like yards after contact which if nothing else should be a pretty good measure of how hard a RB is running than you'll see Lynch has consistently ranked highly in this regard.Personally I've never seen a single thing regarding the way he plays the game to suggest he's going to relax once he's been paid. The only thing I really don't like about Lynch is I wish he was utilized more in the passing game and because I do think he plays so hard and runs with such aggressiveness I think it's fear to worry about his longevity but that's a dynasty concern, nothing to worry about this season.

Foster and McCoy didn't disappear for 2 1/2 years after being the guy for 2 years then blow up for the 10 weeks before a new contract was due, they produced pretty much from when they were given the ball. Same with Rice and Forte. However, if either of those 2 hold out into August they will tumble down my cheat sheets.

The whole team, especially the OL, sucked for the first half of the season. Lynch ran the same way in the first eight weeks as he did in the last eight. There are far more factors than just his pending contract to consider. No real offseason, new OC, new line coach and blocking scheme, extremely young team etc... I would actually argue that Lynch was a lead-by-example guy that was very important to the turnaround the team had. There hasn't been a whisper of anything negative in his time in Seattle, both on or off the field. I wouldn't be surprised if he was given the C this year. I think the people who are saying in the 1200/10 range are pretty close, though I would bump his TDs up by a good bit, maybe a ceiling of 15. If you think he's overvalued this year, that's a decent point to consider, but theres simply nothing in his game to suggest that a payday is going to change him. His semi disappearance in Buffslo, like the first half of last year, was due far more by the team around him than by him.

 

[Grahamburn]

games 1-8 97/398/4.1/4 and 12/91/7.6/0

games9-16 188/806/4.3/8 and 16/121/7.6/1

Hawks had worst OL in the NFL in the first half of the season last year, so the carries and YPC are both capped more by sum offense rather than effort/talent. Second half stats are likely more reflective of what to expect next season assuming not contract year issues, but maybe Turbin steals 5 carries a game.

I expect 300/1360/4.4/13 and 30/240/3

Could you elaborate on the changes to the offensive line from the first half to the last half. In on of my leagues Lynch was traded once and dropped by 2 owners before he finally started playing in the second half. I was one who traded for him and then dropped his sorry a$#. I just can't see wanting him as anymore than a RB2 or RB3 unless you can convince me we won't see some of what he did in those first 8 games. For me he is one of the most overrated players this year.

First 8 games? His first two games were against San Francisco and Pittsburgh. There weren't many RBs doing much of anything against those teams. After that, Lynch was pretty solid throughout the rest of the season. Even in games when his yardage was down he managed to punch in a TD, and he had some big games in tough matchups as well. He wasn't feasting on bad defenses. These are his game logs:Lynch 2011 game logs

You seem negatively biased toward Lynch because of a poor trade decision. All RBs have a tough game or two. Lynch was one of the most consistent players in fantasy last year.

 

[Grahamburn]

Maybe it's the week 16 game against San Francisco that makes me so sure about this guy. Absolutely nobody ran the ball on the 49ers in 2011. They hadn't given up a rushing touchdown. They hadn't given up a 100 yard rusher, or even 100 combined yards on the ground to a team. There was all kinds of debate in the Shark Pool on whether or not Lynch could deliver against that defense. I'm sure many of his owners benched him.

Marshawn Lynch finished that game with 21 carries, 107 yards and a TD on the ground. I was already a believer, but that sealed it. Seattle Marshawn Lynch is a beastmode stud.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

That is damn good posting ZWK