Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks (1 Viewer)

[Blackjacks]

I see abig season again for lynch. Whats not to llik about him......he gets all the carries for a run first team, gets 3rd down work (we'll see) and always gets looks in the redzone. Their defense is good enought o stay in game, they have made improvements to the passing game that SHOULD open things up for the running game more.

I know he is a knuckle head and has had issues in the past but a change of scenery was the best thing that could have ever happeed to him.

315 carries 1300 yards rushing 10 tds

40 catches 350 yards 1 td

 

[FF Ninja]

Lots of rubbish about Lynch mailing it in now that he's been paid, but I'm not buying it. At the moment, he's got an ADP of 16 (RB8). Considering last year he was saddled with a below average QB, an injury plagued O-line, and he missed 1 game yet he finished as RB5, I believe he presents great value in the 2nd round and I wouldn't hesitate to take him in the 1st if the other guys I like are gone.

He managed 12 TDs last year on a poor offensive unit (23rd in points, 28th in yards) yet a lot of people are anticipating this number to decrease now that he's got a decent QB. Sure, there may be more passing TDs, but there will be more plays and more scoring opps. And why did Lynch score so many TDs? Because Pete trusts him at the goal line. I went and checked all his plays from 5 yards and less:

1 yard line: TD, TD

2 yard line: TD, TD

3 yard line: 2yds, TD, TD, -4yds, 2 yds (one of 2 yds was a 4th-2 conversion)

4 yard line: TD, -3yds, TD

5 yard line: 3yds

That account for 8 of his touchdowns. His others were 11, 15, 16, and 40 yards with a 20 yard reception.

If this offense can get within the 5 yard line more often, which I think is a certainty, then I expect his scoring to increase.

Additionally, with the departure of Forsett, there is a chance Lynch will improve upon his 28 receptions last year. He is a good blocker and he caught the same % of his targets as Forsett did last year. No need to bank on this, though. He is a value at RB8 even if he doesn't catch any passes.

300 carries x 4.4 ypc = 1320 yds 15 TD, 55 targets x 67% = 37 rec x 7.0 ypr = 260 yds 0 TD

I'm predicting 300 carries to be conservative, but he was averaging well over 20 carries a game when Seattle was not being blown out. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he puts up monster carry numbers this year (like Michael Turner in 2008) which allows him to slip into the top 3. I know, sounds like crazy talk, but if this line gels and they're able to plug it in at will like they did with Shaun Alexander then the sky is the limit for Lynch.

Obviously a lot of Lynch's production depends on Flynn keeping the defense honest. He was seeing a lot of 8 in the box last year. If Flynn and Rice hit it off then Lynch could post his best ypc of his career this year. Combine that with the possibility of 20+ carries per game, 30-40 rec, and 15+ TD and you have a really, really high ceiling.

 

[need2know]

so how far does the recent arrest lower his adp? From what I have read he should be able to play this season with no suspension...but I guess that could change. I was viewing him as a late 1st in a 12 team redraft. Now it seems you can get him in the second or maybe even the third depending on how scared the folks drafting with you are. would you still take him in the second?

 

[Badgers Fan]

so how far does the recent arrest lower his adp? From what I have read he should be able to play this season with no suspension...but I guess that could change. I was viewing him as a late 1st in a 12 team redraft. Now it seems you can get him in the second or maybe even the third depending on how scared the folks drafting with you are. would you still take him in the second?

Well, it first depends on your league size and settings. In my mini-dynasty 16 teamer which is td heavy, at my 2nd round pick of 20th overall I'd certainly take a gamble on him. In my other league, a 12 team ppr, if I had a later 1st and he was sitting there at 15th-ish overall I'd probably pass..but I do think he can be worth the risk in about round 3. Championships are on later in the season, and if you truly are a good owner, you can get bye a few weeks without him. Down the stretch you should have yourself a solid rb1 that you got at rb2 price. However, even with all these different reports out there, you run the risk of him missing a month or two (which I don't think will happen). His final 4 weeks (14-17) he has 3 home games vs stl, san fran, arizona..and one road game at buffalo. Seattle should at least keep it close in those games and he will be used very often. However, with all that said, his value is a bit inflated becaue he finished the season red hot last year..then again it's possible he is undervalued because of his bad start.Marshawn will get the ball so much tho, that even if he plays with a lack of effort this year, in 16 games 1200+ total yards and 7-8 td's should be his floor. I think he has a great chance to finish as a top 8 rb this year.

 

[FF Ninja]

He's going 3.03 on FF Calc (12-team)

I think he was around 2.02 before, so if you get a late draft slot, you really have to reach if you want him. This is what makes auction leagues appealing.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Has there been any indication as to when we will know whether or not lynch will get suspended at all?

 

[Modog814]

Has there been any indication as to when we will know whether or not lynch will get suspended at all?

From everything I've read it seems that the league will wait to render any punishment until after the court case. So depending on how good Lynch's lawyers are the suspension, if any, could not come until next year.

 

[Shutout]

I hope the majority of the people feel the way the last two people feel so his value drops. He's one of the most talented backs in the league running in a run oriented system. He has the ability and situation to be the #1 back in fantasy football.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vyh5QoJYJDsETA: Because he is on the Seahawks and little nationally is known about them I expect the majority of people to downgrade him.

Him being in Seattle has little to do with it. People that have followed Lynch his whole career knew him in the small market of Buffalo too.I've owned him his entire career and suffered through watching those horrible Bills games.He showed promise early. then it became obvious that he wasn't into every game. FJAX outplayed him in effort and interest in many of those Bills games. Yes he has ability and power and he's fun to watch, but he just isn't the same guy all the time. As a lont-time watcher, from the beginning, I'm just concerned. I remember the college cart incident, the hand gun situation, the attitude in Bufallo..All the reports about he thought it was just a podunk boring place, the suspension and how he responded when he came back.MAC32 is right. It might not be accurate to say he "Disappeared" for 2+ years because so many people around here like to pick nits, but the general idea is accurate. He was not bringing the same game for a LONG stretch of time. And then he just happens to crank it up now. Ok..Call some of us UFO chasers and conspiracy theorists but I feel comfortable enough as a guy following his whole career to at least say it valid evidence worth considering.In the time this post started, he has run into another issue. Maybe he'll be fine. The team should be better so everyone pumping him up have a lot of things in their favor to support it. But at some point its in his head and on his shoulders and up to him and I have a hard time thinking a guy that just got the contract he did, had the language in it that it did about things that could get him into trouble, almost immediately goes out and disregards it....let's give him two seasons and see how this works out.

 

[need2know]

do i recall correctly that lynch has a court date today? does anyone have any more info on the possibilty of suspension? I still view this guy as a high pick and have thought about picking him in the second or third round as potentially my rb1. but it would be nice if we knew if he was going to get suspended or not...

 

[Twenty-Four Eighty-Four]

I thought I read he didn't have a court date until later in the season.

EDIT: Here's what I read that I was trying to remember

The Seahawks haven't heard any news regarding a possible Marshawn Lynch suspension.

No news is good news for Lynch. Previous reports have suggested that he won't face a 2012 suspension because his pending DUI case won't be finalized until after the season. Additionally, his latest transgression involves the league's substance abuse policy. All his previous incidents were related to the personal conduct policy. Aug 13 - 11:14 AM

Source: ESPN.com

 

[Warpig]

 

[jackdubl]

So do we know the current state of Lynch? It is starting to feel like no suspension this season, but I'd hate to take Lynch then get the rug pulled in mid-season. Seems like something we need to know soon.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

So do we know the current state of Lynch? It is starting to feel like no suspension this season, but I'd hate to take Lynch then get the rug pulled in mid-season. Seems like something we need to know soon.

I swear if Goodell strings this out and suspends him sometime mid-season . . . .

 

[[icon]]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/19769347/five-questions-from-seahawks-camp

Nothing too new:

3. What happens if Marshawn Lynch is suspended?

Marshawn Lynch is the Seattle "bell cow" running back on a team that loves to run the ball. He could be facing a suspension by the league. A year ago that would be devastating to this team. Keep in mind Lynch was the only back to crack the 100-yard rushing mark against the 49ers' defense last season. But after this camp visit I can tell Seahawks fans know to rest easy if Lynch is out for a while because rookie Robert Turbin (fourth-round pick) is the real deal. He reminds me of Thomas Jones, the powerful running back who looked so good the past several years. Turbin is a terrific zone one cut runner. Flynn described him as a guy who can be his own best blocker willing to attack tacklers rather than run away from them. Turbin has open-field speed and can catch the ball. Seattle has done a nice job of protecting themselves against anything that might happen to Lynch. And if Lynch is good to go for 16 games the Seahawks just got deeper at the power running back spot.

 

[rascal]

If he does get suspended, how many games are we talking about?

 

[need2know]

If he does get suspended, how many games are we talking about?

I don't think hes getting suspended but if I had to guess no more than 2 games

 

[solorca]

So do we know the current state of Lynch? It is starting to feel like no suspension this season, but I'd hate to take Lynch then get the rug pulled in mid-season. Seems like something we need to know soon.

I swear if Goodell strings this out and suspends him sometime mid-season . . . .

It's not really Goodell's fault. It wouldn't be fair to suspend someone before they are found guilty of a crime.

 

[need2know]

So do we know the current state of Lynch? It is starting to feel like no suspension this season, but I'd hate to take Lynch then get the rug pulled in mid-season. Seems like something we need to know soon.

I swear if Goodell strings this out and suspends him sometime mid-season . . . .

It's not really Goodell's fault. It wouldn't be fair to suspend someone before they are found guilty of a crime.

is it true that the dui won't be resolved in the courts until after the season?

 

[GDogg]

So do we know the current state of Lynch? It is starting to feel like no suspension this season, but I'd hate to take Lynch then get the rug pulled in mid-season. Seems like something we need to know soon.

I swear if Goodell strings this out and suspends him sometime mid-season . . . .

It's not really Goodell's fault. It wouldn't be fair to suspend someone before they are found guilty of a crime.

is it true that the dui won't be resolved in the courts until after the season?

His attorney seems pretty sure of that. There is no trial date set that I can tell. There is a status conference set for September 27. Assuming no trial date (and I don't think there is one), then the judge could either set a trial date at that time or, if the sides tell the judge they are working to resolve the issue and/or need to conduct a significant amount of additional discovery, then the judge could kick the status conference out another 30, 60, 90 days.In any case, I don't think this goes to trial before the season is over and I don't think the league would suspend him before then. Lynch is refuting the charges and the facts of the case have not been established. On top of that, many NFL analysts think this is a possible violation of the league's substance abuse program and not a personal conduct issue, which has different suspension guidelines.

 

[need2know]

So do we know the current state of Lynch? It is starting to feel like no suspension this season, but I'd hate to take Lynch then get the rug pulled in mid-season. Seems like something we need to know soon.

I swear if Goodell strings this out and suspends him sometime mid-season . . . .

It's not really Goodell's fault. It wouldn't be fair to suspend someone before they are found guilty of a crime.

is it true that the dui won't be resolved in the courts until after the season?

His attorney seems pretty sure of that. There is no trial date set that I can tell. There is a status conference set for September 27. Assuming no trial date (and I don't think there is one), then the judge could either set a trial date at that time or, if the sides tell the judge they are working to resolve the issue and/or need to conduct a significant amount of additional discovery, then the judge could kick the status conference out another 30, 60, 90 days.In any case, I don't think this goes to trial before the season is over and I don't think the league would suspend him before then. Lynch is refuting the charges and the facts of the case have not been established. On top of that, many NFL analysts think this is a possible violation of the league's substance abuse program and not a personal conduct issue, which has different suspension guidelines.

sounds like he is good to go to me. the dui has hurt his value enough that I can easily get him in round 2 now...

 

[gambla]

Any thoughts on Lynch's back issues? I know he missed a game last year with a mysterious back injury he sustained minutes before the game. Seems to be acting up again.

 

[solorca]

Any thoughts on Lynch's back issues? I know he missed a game last year with a mysterious back injury he sustained minutes before the game. Seems to be acting up again.

It's enough of a concern for me to pick up Robert Turbin just in case. The good news is that I think that Turbin is good enough to come close to Lynch production anyway.

 

[rocketsauce]

Earlier in the thread I said Lynch would likely not end up on my team. In my 12 team PPR money league yesterday, traded up 4 spots in the 4th round to nab him at 4.06 as he just kept tumbling.

 

[dehaven123]

Earlier in the thread I said Lynch would likely not end up on my team. In my 12 team PPR money league yesterday, traded up 4 spots in the 4th round to nab him at 4.06 as he just kept tumbling.

wow.good move on ur part.really surprised to hear he slid that far.im buying everywhere i can reasonably w/ lynch.

 

[rocketsauce]

Earlier in the thread I said Lynch would likely not end up on my team. In my 12 team PPR money league yesterday, traded up 4 spots in the 4th round to nab him at 4.06 as he just kept tumbling.

wow.good move on ur part.really surprised to hear he slid that far.im buying everywhere i can reasonably w/ lynch.

Thanks man. One of those truly feel good moments of the Draft where the owner picking 4.07 exclaimed #### as I wrote him on the board. Had him all lined up and ready to go. I had to make the move (just gave up a swap in the 5th as well, moving down 4 spots) as I started out QB-WR-WR. Felt amazing to start with that and still land Lynch, even if I don't love him. (Although I'm coming around )