Martin vs. Wilson (1 Viewer)

[Chazzhawk]

Maybe it is just me, but I find it very odd that Martin is rated so much higher than Wilson in Dynasty leagues, and Rookie drafts. In the start up Dynasty leagues I have been apart of this year (12 teams standard scoring ppr) Martin is going any where from the mid 3rd to the early 4th. In the Rookie drafts he is going, on average from 1.2 to 1.4. Wilson on the other hand is going in the late 5th or early 6th for start ups, and from 1.4 to 1.7 in Rookie drafts. They were both taken in the first round one right after the other (it might just be PR crap, but the Giants said they were taking Wilson even if Tampa didn't trade up and grab Martin), The Giants offense is much better, Martin will probably start right away but he will be giving up carries to Blount and probably all the goal line work. Wilson will be behind Bradshaw, but Bradshaw is 26 going on 90 in football years. (what is it like 5 ankle surgeries in 22 months, and a bone marrow injection into his ankle this off season). No Nfl team drafts a guy in the first round and says "Hey I hope that guy will be a quality back up", the plan is for them to start, maybe not year one but by the second year, and for sure the third year at the latest.

Anyways can anyone shine some light on this for me? Is it just because Martin has the probability to start right away? Do people really think Bradshaw is going to stay healthy or be a threat for more than this year?

 

[Late225]

Maybe it is just me, but I find it very odd that Martin is rated so much higher than Wilson in Dynasty leagues, and Rookie drafts. In the start up Dynasty leagues I have been apart of this year (12 teams standard scoring ppr) Martin is going any where from the mid 3rd to the early 4th. In the Rookie drafts he is going, on average from 1.2 to 1.4. Wilson on the other hand is going in the late 5th or early 6th for start ups, and from 1.4 to 1.7 in Rookie drafts. They were both taken in the first round one right after the other (it might just be PR crap, but the Giants said they were taking Wilson even if Tampa didn't trade up and grab Martin), The Giants offense is much better, Martin will probably start right away but he will be giving up carries to Blount and probably all the goal line work. Wilson will be behind Bradshaw, but Bradshaw is 26 going on 90 in football years. (what is it like 5 ankle surgeries in 22 months, and a bone marrow injection into his ankle this off season). No Nfl team drafts a guy in the first round and says "Hey I hope that guy will be a quality back up", the plan is for them to start, maybe not year one but by the second year, and for sure the third year at the latest.Anyways can anyone shine some light on this for me? Is it just because Martin has the probability to start right away? Do people really think Bradshaw is going to stay healthy or be a threat for more than this year?

I think its Schiano's old school run first philosophy plus comparisons to Ray Rice. Also fears NYG will have pass pass pass offense similar to GB or NE.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Martin is built to be a feature workhorse while Wilson looks to be Bradshaw's replacement, involved in an RBBC. NY will never become Green Bay, the RBs will always be very important to the team.

 

[Borden]

1.2 - 1.4 versus 1.4 - 1.7 and 3rd - 4th versus 5th - 6th. They aren't really that far apart.

One guy was drafted higher and has been projected to start right away. That seems like the right amount of gap to me.

 

[Tanner9919]

the problem with the Giants is run blocking, and Wilson will get to the holes faster than Bradshaw..I think the Giants view Bradshaw as a RB2, not a RB1. there will be enough work for the two of them to have their good days this year..Bradshaw is also a huge injury risk, which could, at some point in 2012, leave Wilson as a starting RB in a potent offense..Bradshaw's running style is his Achilles' heel - he runs too hard..

Martin,on the other hand, is probably going to be a starter right out of the gate, but it remains to be seen what the Bucs will do with Blount - will he be the TD vulture ala McGahee v. Rice from a few years ago? is Martin going to be the guy to rush between the 20's and Blount to be the goal line back? if so, that's equally as bad as a full blown RBBC..

so I think both Martin and Wilson will have similar stats this year, I'd probably give the edge to Wilson because he's playing in a MUCH better and more prolific offense, one that will be so for many years, whereas Martin plays alongside Josh Freeman..



in 5 years, I'd bet both will be fixtures as starting RB's for their teams.not so sure you can say that Josh Freeman will be in the NFL in 5 years. so the Bucs have QB problems IMO which will hurt

Martin's value..

 

[zamboni]

I think its Schiano's old school run first philosophy plus comparisons to Ray Rice. Also fears NYG will have pass pass pass offense similar to GB or NE.

The Giants have never really been a pass-first team, whether it's under Coughlin or any other coach they've had. It may happen from time to time depending on game situation, but no matter how much Eli has improved as a passer, it's not their style to be an aerial attack offense.

 

[finito]

the problem with the Giants is run blocking, and Wilson will get to the holes faster than Bradshaw..I think the Giants view Bradshaw as a RB2, not a RB1. there will be enough work for the two of them to have their good days this year..Bradshaw is also a huge injury risk, which could, at some point in 2012, leave Wilson as a starting RB in a potent offense..Bradshaw's running style is his Achilles' heel - he runs too hard..

Martin,on the other hand, is probably going to be a starter right out of the gate, but it remains to be seen what the Bucs will do with Blount - will he be the TD vulture ala McGahee v. Rice from a few years ago? is Martin going to be the guy to rush between the 20's and Blount to be the goal line back? if so, that's equally as bad as a full blown RBBC..

so I think both Martin and Wilson will have similar stats this year, I'd probably give the edge to Wilson because he's playing in a MUCH better and more prolific offense, one that will be so for many years, whereas Martin plays alongside Josh Freeman..



in 5 years, I'd bet both will be fixtures as starting RB's for their teams.not so sure you can say that Josh Freeman will be in the NFL in 5 years. so the Bucs have QB problems IMO which will hurt

Martin's value..

MJD had Blaine Gabbert as his starting QB last year and led the league in rushing. I don't know that having a great offense always translates to good #'s for RBs. And I don't think you're giving Freeman any potential to improve, which he certainly could. From what I've read, the Giants view Bradshaw as a terrific RB, but his health/foot is a major concern. Also, Bradshaw is probably best in a tandem so Wilson will have opportunities as well. Now, Wilson may blow Bradshaw out of the water and put him on the bench, but from what I understand that's not the intent of the G-men; they want both guys to be major pieces, which caps their fantasy potential but Bradshaw's been good as part of a RBBC before.

Martin will probably share at least a little with Blount, but I think Bradshaw's a better RB than Blount.

 

[Clutchfanatic]

I'm in a 5 keeper league and i'm considering dropping Forte for one of these guys in our 1st (6th) round. Already have Foster and we're moving to 7 keepers this year. I'm a Hokie and I love Wilson.

Also

Blount's progression

 

[TheFanatic]

Martin is projected to be a starter right out of the gate by everyone and their mother, except for the Bucs and Blount. Blount has done a great job keeping ahead of him on the depth chart and work with the first team. Blount can run but he can't pass block well and he fumbles a lot. Two things he can be taught (and learn) to do better. He can't be taught to run better.

Every report I see on this situation is, "Blount running with the first team. We expect Martin to be the starter." I know it's early, but if this is still happening during the presason games, people burning the 1.2 on Martin who didn't lock up Blount are going to be kicking themselves on opening day.

Everyone would expect Blount to be cast aside considering where they took Martin before a rookie wage scale. The guy would make way too much money to ride the pine while some late round punk carries the ball. But not anymore. Nobody is getting the Reggie Bush treatment anymore (carries upon carries and terrible success with it because he has a huge signing bonus).

 

[lbouchard]

As was already mentioned, Martin has flashed his blocking chops already(something that Blount sucks at). Usually, rookie RBs struggle due to this. Some recent ones who have flashed blocking skills in their rookie season include Shady, Forte, Murray, and Helu. Not saying Martin is going to be a stud, but blocking is a major indicator

 

[moderated]

i prefer Wilson, but Martin is in a better situation right off the bat. Wilson's situation could easily turn better if Bradshaw goes down with injury or falters.

The perceived difference in value between these two on the FBG message boards is WAY off as it pertains to dynasty value.

Redraft of course Martin is more valuable solely due to situation and he is less raw at almost 24 years old already, but i rank Wilson higher in dynasty/deep keeper formats. Wilson is more talented and 3 years younger.

 

[Modog814]

MaNo Nfl team drafts a guy in the first round and says "Hey I hope that guy will be a quality back up", the plan is for them to start, maybe not year one but by the second year, and for sure the third year at the latest.

Just FYI, I believe the NYG have a strong history of drafting purely based on best player available and not need. So I wouldn't necessary read into the drafting of Wilson as they plan on him overtaking Bradshaw or as a concern of Bradshaws health.

 

[Chazzhawk]

MaNo Nfl team drafts a guy in the first round and says "Hey I hope that guy will be a quality back up", the plan is for them to start, maybe not year one but by the second year, and for sure the third year at the latest.

Just FYI, I believe the NYG have a strong history of drafting purely based on best player available and not need. So I wouldn't necessary read into the drafting of Wilson as they plan on him overtaking Bradshaw or as a concern of Bradshaws health.

I would agree with that to some extent, they usually do it with the D-Line, but they are in a constant rotation. I think Bradshaw's health is a major concern and I think they agree.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Everybody talks about Tampa being run first. That's great and all, but Giants ran 60+ more times than Tampa last year, because their offense works. They also ran for twice the TDs. It was more or less the same the year before. So I think we can safely ignore "run first" vs "pass first". For a RB, give me the "pass first" offense that runs the ball more, especially in the end zone.

So the only questions are what percentage of the work will each of them get, and how effective they will be. The first part of the is presumed to be in Martin's favor, but I don't know that it's a slam dunk. I think the primary advantage is that right now it is assumed that Martin COULD get the lion's share in ALL situations, which is unusual for a rookie. But there is no guarantee the Bucs WILL do that, it's just that they could.

The 2nd part is VERY open to different evaluations. I think it's fair to say Wilson is a more dynamic back, but as to overall effectiveness, everybody's going to have a different opinion on that.

 

[Skeletore Eh]

Everybody talks about Tampa being run first. That's great and all, but Giants ran 60+ more times than Tampa last year, because their offense works. They also ran for twice the TDs. It was more or less the same the year before. So I think we can safely ignore "run first" vs "pass first". For a RB, give me the "pass first" offense that runs the ball more, especially in the end zone.

This might be a valid point if the bucs didn't hire schiano. It's naive to think their rushing attempts won't go up significantly this year

 

[Sitch]

Everybody talks about Tampa being run first. That's great and all, but Giants ran 60+ more times than Tampa last year, because their offense works. They also ran for twice the TDs. It was more or less the same the year before. So I think we can safely ignore "run first" vs "pass first". For a RB, give me the "pass first" offense that runs the ball more, especially in the end zone.

This might be a valid point if the bucs didn't hire schiano. It's naive to think their rushing attempts won't go up significantly this year

Another thing to keep in mind about the rushing attempts - the Bucs were horrible last year and were down big in the 2nd half of most of their games, so they had to throw most of the time. Need to keep those stats in the proper context.As for the 2 players, give me Martin as Blount is simply not very good (he can't catch, can't pass block, etc) and Schiano is a run first coach. Wilson may very well end up being the better player, but Bradshaw (when healthy - I know, a big if) is still relatively young and still a very good player.

 

[TheFanatic]

MaNo Nfl team drafts a guy in the first round and says "Hey I hope that guy will be a quality back up", the plan is for them to start, maybe not year one but by the second year, and for sure the third year at the latest.

Just FYI, I believe the NYG have a strong history of drafting purely based on best player available and not need. So I wouldn't necessary read into the drafting of Wilson as they plan on him overtaking Bradshaw or as a concern of Bradshaws health.

And these guys aren't getting massive signing bonuses anymore in the first. So either guy, Wilson or Martin, could wind up being a backup and it doesn't really cost either team all that much money. They will not force this onto them unless they are performing.

 

[Modog814]

MaNo Nfl team drafts a guy in the first round and says "Hey I hope that guy will be a quality back up", the plan is for them to start, maybe not year one but by the second year, and for sure the third year at the latest.

Just FYI, I believe the NYG have a strong history of drafting purely based on best player available and not need. So I wouldn't necessary read into the drafting of Wilson as they plan on him overtaking Bradshaw or as a concern of Bradshaws health.

I would agree with that to some extent, they usually do it with the D-Line, but they are in a constant rotation. I think Bradshaw's health is a major concern and I think they agree.

Of course, wasn't saying that they don't like Wilson or aren't concerned about Bradshaws health. Just saying that the Giants generally say "We'll take the best guy here and figure out how to use him later" They did it again most likely in the 2nd round taking a WR.

 

[gianmarco]

David Wilson -- Just turned 21 years old

Doug Martin -- 23 years old, turning 24 at the end of the season

Just saying....

 

[ImTheScientist]

The Giants have never really been a pass-first team, whether it's under Coughlin or any other coach they've had. It may happen from time to time depending on game situation, but no matter how much Eli has improved as a passer, it's not their style to be an aerial attack offense.

The Giants finished 5th in YPG passing last year and 32nd in YPG rushing. Thats a pass first team pal. Maybe you have some bad information.

 

[ImTheScientist]

David Wilson -- Just turned 21 years oldDoug Martin -- 23 years old, turning 24 at the end of the seasonJust saying....

David Wilson - Three Cone: 7.09Doug Martin - Three Cone: 6.79Ray Rice - Three Cone: 6.65Just saying....

 

[zamboni]

The Giants have never really been a pass-first team, whether it's under Coughlin or any other coach they've had. It may happen from time to time depending on game situation, but no matter how much Eli has improved as a passer, it's not their style to be an aerial attack offense.

The Giants finished 5th in YPG passing last year and 32nd in YPG rushing. Thats a pass first team pal. Maybe you have some bad information.

Talking about a philosophy, not an end result, pal. Clearly their running game was poor last year - one of the reasons they let Jacobs go and decided to upgrade with Wilson with their first round pick.

Eli has certainly ascended, but it was as much by default since he had to throw the ball a lot more than Coughlin would have liked.

 

[mobb_deep]

Sitting with the 3rd pick in a rookie dynasty draft (and in need of RB), I've watched a lot of tape of both of them. Just from the tapes alone, I give a slight edge to Wilson. His balance and burst is just unbelievable. I also like that he doesn't shy away from contact and keeps driving the legs. On the other hand, Martin seems to have a little better vision and is a better pass protector. The pass protection is definitely going to need improvement, before Wilson can be a significant contributor. Add in the age of both and the situations they're playing in, and I like Martin better in a redraft and Wilson better in a Dynasty.

 

[gianmarco]

David Wilson -- Just turned 21 years oldDoug Martin -- 23 years old, turning 24 at the end of the seasonJust saying....

David Wilson - Three Cone: 7.09Doug Martin - Three Cone: 6.79Ray Rice - Three Cone: 6.65Just saying....

What does one isolated statistic (and a meaningless one, at that) have to do with my post? Age of RBs has a LOT more relevance in terms of dynasty value than a 3 cone drill.

 

[ImTheScientist]

David Wilson -- Just turned 21 years oldDoug Martin -- 23 years old, turning 24 at the end of the seasonJust saying....

David Wilson - Three Cone: 7.09Doug Martin - Three Cone: 6.79Ray Rice - Three Cone: 6.65Just saying....

What does one isolated statistic (and a meaningless one, at that) have to do with my post? Age of RBs has a LOT more relevance in terms of dynasty value than a 3 cone drill.

Its an isolated statistic, just like age. In dynasty you should pick the better player.....pretty simple.

 

[gianmarco]

David Wilson -- Just turned 21 years oldDoug Martin -- 23 years old, turning 24 at the end of the seasonJust saying....

David Wilson - Three Cone: 7.09Doug Martin - Three Cone: 6.79Ray Rice - Three Cone: 6.65Just saying....

What does one isolated statistic (and a meaningless one, at that) have to do with my post? Age of RBs has a LOT more relevance in terms of dynasty value than a 3 cone drill.

Its an isolated statistic, just like age. In dynasty you should pick the better player.....pretty simple.

3 cone drill result is a meaningless statistic in terms of player value for a dynasty league. Age is a very important factor in dynasty value. S. Jackson and Gore are two of the more talented RBs in the league but their values are now far lower simply due to age.If two players are relatively close in terms of skill and you have them ranked similarly, an almost 3 year age difference is very relevant. Since it had yet to be pointed out in this thread, I'm pointing out that there is actually a pretty significant age difference between the two that some may not even realize. But thanks for your 3 cone drill post. Duly noted.

 

[TheFanatic]

Three cone drill?

 

[Jail]

David Wilson -- Just turned 21 years old

Doug Martin -- 23 years old, turning 24 at the end of the season

Just saying....

Just for clarity I thought I'd throw out their DOB: Martin: 1/13/89

Wilson: 6/15/91

I don't really know how you stretch 5 months to almost a year. Its closer to 2 than it is to 3.

 

[Cookiemonster]

Three cone drill?

You'd better check their BMI.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Bump,

Martin could be the next Ray Rice

Wilson could be the next CJ2K (with better work ethic)

 

[EBF]

I don't know if I see much Chris Johnson in Wilson. Different type of player.

Wilson is a freak athlete and I think he probably has a higher upside than Martin. If everything clicks, he looks like he could be an elite back. However, I also think he's a much riskier prospect with a bigger bust risk. Others have mentioned that Wilson is an aggressive player who can run through tackles. He definitely packs a wallop for a little back, but that's part of my problem with him. He gets in way too many violent collisions. It's a symptom of bad vision and footwork, and a recipe for durability problems, especially when coupled with his smallish frame.

Martin has much better vision and is much stockier. He's much more adept at making the subtle extra moves needed to dodge tacklers and earn extra yards. That's why you don't see so many monstrous hits on his highlight reels. It's hard to lay a glove on him. That's a common quality of great running backs. Martin has average speed, but really good first step quickness. Combine those qualities with a 5'9" 220 frame that's perfectly suited for featured back duty and you have a player who seems like a pretty safe projection to the next level. If the upside and pedigree are similar, I tend to favor safe prospects over players that I feel less certain about. I would take Martin over Wilson without much hesitation, knowing that I'm likely to get a solid contributor.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I don't know if I see much Chris Johnson in Wilson. Different type of player.Wilson is a freak athlete and I think he probably has a higher upside than Martin. If everything clicks, he looks like he could be an elite back. However, I also think he's a much riskier prospect with a bigger bust risk. Others have mentioned that Wilson is an aggressive player who can run through tackles. He definitely packs a wallop for a little back, but that's part of my problem with him. He gets in way too many violent collisions. It's a symptom of bad vision and footwork, and a recipe for durability problems, especially when coupled with his smallish frame. Martin has much better vision and is much stockier. He's much more adept at making the subtle extra moves needed to dodge tacklers and earn extra yards. That's why you don't see so many monstrous hits on his highlight reels. It's hard to lay a glove on him. That's a common quality of great running backs. Martin has average speed, but really good first step quickness. Combine those qualities with a 5'9" 220 frame that's perfectly suited for featured back duty and you have a player who seems like a pretty safe projection to the next level. If the upside and pedigree are similar, I tend to favor safe prospects over players that I feel less certain about. I would take Martin over Wilson without much hesitation, knowing that I'm likely to get a solid contributor.

thanks for the great comparision, its going to be a fun season. I don't see Wilson being bustable in the NY offense baring injury.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I don't know if I see much Chris Johnson in Wilson. Different type of player.Wilson is a freak athlete and I think he probably has a higher upside than Martin. If everything clicks, he looks like he could be an elite back. However, I also think he's a much riskier prospect with a bigger bust risk. Others have mentioned that Wilson is an aggressive player who can run through tackles. He definitely packs a wallop for a little back, but that's part of my problem with him. He gets in way too many violent collisions. It's a symptom of bad vision and footwork, and a recipe for durability problems, especially when coupled with his smallish frame. Martin has much better vision and is much stockier. He's much more adept at making the subtle extra moves needed to dodge tacklers and earn extra yards. That's why you don't see so many monstrous hits on his highlight reels. It's hard to lay a glove on him. That's a common quality of great running backs. Martin has average speed, but really good first step quickness. Combine those qualities with a 5'9" 220 frame that's perfectly suited for featured back duty and you have a player who seems like a pretty safe projection to the next level. If the upside and pedigree are similar, I tend to favor safe prospects over players that I feel less certain about. I would take Martin over Wilson without much hesitation, knowing that I'm likely to get a solid contributor.

Totally agree with this. Wilson might turn out to be an uberstud -- and I wouldn't fade the Giants -- but his actual on field performance leaves something to be desired. He was nowhere near as good in a full time role last year as he was a part-time player the year before. Small sample size? Bulked up too much? Not sure. But I think he's riskier than he's perceived today.Doug Martin is as safe as safe gets, but his ceiling is a little lower -- especially in terms of overall career length and the duration of his peak years. I think it's very likely he'll have some big seasons though, so he's a bargain to land with a rookie pick.Also think that EBF is right about guys who 'run hard.' To me that's symptomatic of players who can't avoid defenders and you just can't win all those collisions. Even the huge backs who break a lot of tackles, like Turner or Stewart, manage to avoid being hit square most of the time. (This is a total aside, but Demarco Murray suffers on this count IMO. Combined with the injury history and the huge weight gain I think he's a ticking time bomb and one of the most overrated dynasty players heading into 2012.)

 

[baconisgood]

The Giants have never really been a pass-first team, whether it's under Coughlin or any other coach they've had. It may happen from time to time depending on game situation, but no matter how much Eli has improved as a passer, it's not their style to be an aerial attack offense.

The Giants finished 5th in YPG passing last year and 32nd in YPG rushing. Thats a pass first team pal. Maybe you have some bad information.

The Girants were 6th/22nd in pass/rush attempts last season but were 17/7 the previous season and 17/13 in 2009. Things change from year to year in the NFL.

 

[Catbird]

I don't know if I see much Chris Johnson in Wilson. Different type of player.Wilson is a freak athlete and I think he probably has a higher upside than Martin. If everything clicks, he looks like he could be an elite back. However, I also think he's a much riskier prospect with a bigger bust risk. Others have mentioned that Wilson is an aggressive player who can run through tackles. He definitely packs a wallop for a little back, but that's part of my problem with him. He gets in way too many violent collisions. It's a symptom of bad vision and footwork, and a recipe for durability problems, especially when coupled with his smallish frame. Martin has much better vision and is much stockier. He's much more adept at making the subtle extra moves needed to dodge tacklers and earn extra yards. That's why you don't see so many monstrous hits on his highlight reels. It's hard to lay a glove on him. That's a common quality of great running backs. Martin has average speed, but really good first step quickness. Combine those qualities with a 5'9" 220 frame that's perfectly suited for featured back duty and you have a player who seems like a pretty safe projection to the next level. If the upside and pedigree are similar, I tend to favor safe prospects over players that I feel less certain about. I would take Martin over Wilson without much hesitation, knowing that I'm likely to get a solid contributor.

Totally agree with this. Wilson might turn out to be an uberstud -- and I wouldn't fade the Giants -- but his actual on field performance leaves something to be desired. He was nowhere near as good in a full time role last year as he was a part-time player the year before. Small sample size? Bulked up too much? Not sure. But I think he's riskier than he's perceived today.Doug Martin is as safe as safe gets, but his ceiling is a little lower -- especially in terms of overall career length and the duration of his peak years. I think it's very likely he'll have some big seasons though, so he's a bargain to land with a rookie pick.Also think that EBF is right about guys who 'run hard.' To me that's symptomatic of players who can't avoid defenders and you just can't win all those collisions. Even the huge backs who break a lot of tackles, like Turner or Stewart, manage to avoid being hit square most of the time. (This is a total aside, but Demarco Murray suffers on this count IMO. Combined with the injury history and the huge weight gain I think he's a ticking time bomb and one of the most overrated dynasty players heading into 2012.)

Both well-stated (Although there is always that creeping doubt about reliance on group-think for rookies)

 

[Time Kibitzer]

I don't know if I see much Chris Johnson in Wilson. Different type of player.

Wilson is a freak athlete and I think he probably has a higher upside than Martin. If everything clicks, he looks like he could be an elite back. However, I also think he's a much riskier prospect with a bigger bust risk. Others have mentioned that Wilson is an aggressive player who can run through tackles. He definitely packs a wallop for a little back, but that's part of my problem with him. He gets in way too many violent collisions. It's a symptom of bad vision and footwork, and a recipe for durability problems, especially when coupled with his smallish frame.

Martin has much better vision and is much stockier. He's much more adept at making the subtle extra moves needed to dodge tacklers and earn extra yards. That's why you don't see so many monstrous hits on his highlight reels. It's hard to lay a glove on him. That's a common quality of great running backs. Martin has average speed, but really good first step quickness. Combine those qualities with a 5'9" 220 frame that's perfectly suited for featured back duty and you have a player who seems like a pretty safe projection to the next level. If the upside and pedigree are similar, I tend to favor safe prospects over players that I feel less certain about. I would take Martin over Wilson without much hesitation, knowing that I'm likely to get a solid contributor.

Totally agree with this. Wilson might turn out to be an uberstud -- and I wouldn't fade the Giants -- but his actual on field performance leaves something to be desired. He was nowhere near as good in a full time role last year as he was a part-time player the year before. Small sample size? Bulked up too much? Not sure. But I think he's riskier than he's perceived today.

Not sure what you mean here. Wilson was 4th in the country with over 1700 rushing yards this past season in a full time role, and his yards per carry increased from 5.5 when he was a part-time player as a sophomore to 5.9 as a full time player as a junior. Maybe you think he looked better as a sophomore, but to say he was nowhere near as good as a junior is ludicrous.

 

[Touchdown There]

However, I also think he's a much riskier prospect with a bigger bust risk. Others have mentioned that Wilson is an aggressive player who can run through tackles.

In my main dynasty league I have the 1.2 rookie pick. I have been leaning towards Wilson, so I was a little concerned with some of the stuff mentioned in this thread. I have just watched all of Wilson's runs from the Clemson game and then a few highlight films.Wilson is young and Bradshaw is going to get the bulk of the carries in 2012. Comparing the two, they both run with similar intensity. The main difference that I saw between Bradshaw and Wilson is the "slinky hips" of Wilson and uncanny ability to stay on his feet. Does he run through tackles? Yes, but not in a destructive way. He does not meet tacklers head on. Wilson's speed is deceptive to defenders. IMO, from limited tape, defenders think they have an angle on Wilson but he is not where they think he going to be when contact is made. This is important because it is the difference between getting a solid shot on a RB or allowing the RB to use his hips/hands/balance to pull through an arm tackle. This is Wilson's specialty.Things I did not like from the tape:- Wilson has a tendency to reverse field. If it is a pitch right and nothing is there, take what you can get. Reversing field in the NFL is going to get him clobbered for -15 yards.- Aggressive running and refusing to go down will likely cause a few more fumbles than the Giants are going to like.Opportunity-wise, I think that Doug Martin is going to be a starter and Wilson is going to be a backup in 2012. I do not believe in Blount and IMO TB wants Martin to "run with it" out of the gate. It is possible that Martin has more trade value than Wilson one year from now. Martin is low risk, Wilson is medium risk.As much as Bradshaw is going to be the "lead dog", as Giant's GM Reece stated, the feet need to make it through 2012 with no issues or the Giants are going to grow weary. Bradshaw seems to be constantly "healing" while missing practices, OTA's etc. Bradshaw has no contractual guarantees for 2013. The day that the Giants move on from Bradshaw is the day that you will see Wilson's dynasty value jump Ryan Mathews-like.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Not sure what you mean here. Wilson was 4th in the country with over 1700 rushing yards this past season in a full time role, and his yards per carry increased from 5.5 when he was a part-time player as a sophomore to 5.9 as a full time player as a junior. Maybe you think he looked better as a sophomore, but to say he was nowhere near as good as a junior is ludicrous.

All true. He also went from 13 TDs on 187 combined touches in 2009 and 2010, to 10 TDs on 312 touches in 2011 and had almost no breakaway TDs -- after being insanely explosive the prior years. Going from a TD every 14 touches to a TD every 31 touches is a big difference.Like I said... maybe it's a small sample size. Or maybe he added some weight to be 'the guy' and it hurt him. Or maybe his vision in tight quarters just isn't anywhere near as good as it is when he gets the ball in space. Regardless I still think he's a good prospect, but two of those three possibilities make me nervous.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Not sure what you mean here. Wilson was 4th in the country with over 1700 rushing yards this past season in a full time role, and his yards per carry increased from 5.5 when he was a part-time player as a sophomore to 5.9 as a full time player as a junior. Maybe you think he looked better as a sophomore, but to say he was nowhere near as good as a junior is ludicrous.

All true. He also went from 13 TDs on 187 combined touches in 2009 and 2010, to 10 TDs on 312 touches in 2011 and had almost no breakaway TDs -- after being insanely explosive the prior years. Going from a TD every 14 touches to a TD every 31 touches is a big difference.Like I said... maybe it's a small sample size. Or maybe he added some weight to be 'the guy' and it hurt him. Or maybe his vision in tight quarters just isn't anywhere near as good as it is when he gets the ball in space. Regardless I still think he's a good prospect, but two of those three possibilities make me nervous.

I think you're over-remembering how explosive he was as a sophomore. As far as I can tell he only had 2 breakaway TDs his entire sophomore season, 1 of which was on a reception. And looking at his game log from his sophomore and junior seasons, I think it'd be safe to conclude the amount of 20+ yard runs per carry he had actually increased dramatically in his junior season relative to his sophomore season. I will say his lack of rushing TDs in 2011 is somewhat disconcerting, but TDs are a fickle enough stat that it wouldn't prevent me from drafting the guy.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I will say his lack of rushing TDs in 2011 is somewhat disconcerting, but TDs are a fickle enough stat that it wouldn't prevent me from drafting the guy.

Keep in mind that Thomas vultured a bunch of the short-yardage TDs too. So that may play a role.ETA: Wilson also scored from 25+ on four out of fifteen receptions in 2010. That's crazy good. However, in 2011 he didn't break 25 yards on any of his 37 catches. Again, small sample size? Did he bulk up to carry the load and lose a step?Maybe I'm over thinking it, but that's my yellow flag (along with the similar decline in long runs). I still like Wilson -- especially since the Giants snagged him using a 1st rounder. But I do think Martin is the safer pick.

 

[netnalp]

I don't know if I see much Chris Johnson in Wilson. Different type of player.

Wilson is a freak athlete and I think he probably has a higher upside than Martin. If everything clicks, he looks like he could be an elite back. However, I also think he's a much riskier prospect with a bigger bust risk. Others have mentioned that Wilson is an aggressive player who can run through tackles. He definitely packs a wallop for a little back, but that's part of my problem with him. He gets in way too many violent collisions. It's a symptom of bad vision and footwork, and a recipe for durability problems, especially when coupled with his smallish frame.

Martin has much better vision and is much stockier. He's much more adept at making the subtle extra moves needed to dodge tacklers and earn extra yards. That's why you don't see so many monstrous hits on his highlight reels. It's hard to lay a glove on him. That's a common quality of great running backs. Martin has average speed, but really good first step quickness. Combine those qualities with a 5'9" 220 frame that's perfectly suited for featured back duty and you have a player who seems like a pretty safe projection to the next level. If the upside and pedigree are similar, I tend to favor safe prospects over players that I feel less certain about. I would take Martin over Wilson without much hesitation, knowing that I'm likely to get a solid contributor.

Totally agree with this. Wilson might turn out to be an uberstud -- and I wouldn't fade the Giants -- but his actual on field performance leaves something to be desired. He was nowhere near as good in a full time role last year as he was a part-time player the year before. Small sample size? Bulked up too much? Not sure. But I think he's riskier than he's perceived today.

Not sure what you mean here. Wilson was 4th in the country with over 1700 rushing yards this past season in a full time role, and his yards per carry increased from 5.5 when he was a part-time player as a sophomore to 5.9 as a full time player as a junior. Maybe you think he looked better as a sophomore, but to say he was nowhere near as good as a junior is ludicrous.

His low TD totals might be leaving that impression, but he was vultured by a rushing QB.

 

[BlackMamba24]

ive got both of them. i gotta think one of these guys has to be a stud... i sure hope so lol.

 

[KellysHeroes]

However, I also think he's a much riskier prospect with a bigger bust risk. Others have mentioned that Wilson is an aggressive player who can run through tackles.

In my main dynasty league I have the 1.2 rookie pick. I have been leaning towards Wilson, so I was a little concerned with some of the stuff mentioned in this thread. I have just watched all of Wilson's runs from the Clemson game and then a few highlight films.Wilson is young and Bradshaw is going to get the bulk of the carries in 2012. Comparing the two, they both run with similar intensity. The main difference that I saw between Bradshaw and Wilson is the "slinky hips" of Wilson and uncanny ability to stay on his feet. Does he run through tackles? Yes, but not in a destructive way. He does not meet tacklers head on. Wilson's speed is deceptive to defenders. IMO, from limited tape, defenders think they have an angle on Wilson but he is not where they think he going to be when contact is made. This is important because it is the difference between getting a solid shot on a RB or allowing the RB to use his hips/hands/balance to pull through an arm tackle. This is Wilson's specialty.Things I did not like from the tape:- Wilson has a tendency to reverse field. If it is a pitch right and nothing is there, take what you can get. Reversing field in the NFL is going to get him clobbered for -15 yards.- Aggressive running and refusing to go down will likely cause a few more fumbles than the Giants are going to like.Opportunity-wise, I think that Doug Martin is going to be a starter and Wilson is going to be a backup in 2012. I do not believe in Blount and IMO TB wants Martin to "run with it" out of the gate. It is possible that Martin has more trade value than Wilson one year from now. Martin is low risk, Wilson is medium risk.As much as Bradshaw is going to be the "lead dog", as Giant's GM Reece stated, the feet need to make it through 2012 with no issues or the Giants are going to grow weary. Bradshaw seems to be constantly "healing" while missing practices, OTA's etc. Bradshaw has no contractual guarantees for 2013. The day that the Giants move on from Bradshaw is the day that you will see Wilson's dynasty value jump Ryan Mathews-like.

don't let the Bradshaw thing stop u from drafting Wilson, remember that Wilson is younger than Martin and trust me; Bradshaw will be the backup next yr.

 

[MrSoup]

I'm not going to spout off any stats or numbers or anything like that.

For me, all I need to decide between the two is video.

And after watching tape of both players, I think it's pretty clear that Martin is the superior player. Not one person has mentioned Martin's deceptive playing speed in this thread. He absolutely pulls away and creates separation in the open field. Whereas with Wilson, I see a good number of runs that he's chased down and tackled.

Martin is the guy to draft. The guy to own for the next 5 years.

And it's not even close for me. Not even close.....

 

[eric rymer]

fwiw....

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1275200-bucs-1st-round-pick-martin-opens-camp-as-lead-running-back

 

[jurb26]

fwiw....http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1275200-bucs-1st-round-pick-martin-opens-camp-as-lead-running-back

How likely is this to stick? I'm a Martin owner and want to believe. Blount is pretty good though. I still find it hard to believe that the starting role will just be given to Martin.

 

[butcher boy]

fwiw....http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1275200-bucs-1st-round-pick-martin-opens-camp-as-lead-running-back

How likely is this to stick? I'm a Martin owner and want to believe. Blount is pretty good though. I still find it hard to believe that the starting role will just be given to Martin.

Just look at Blount's behavior last year to see why.- reportedly fell asleep during team meetings.- he was always late, so late that the team had to have a driving service hired to get him the three miles to practice on time.- they decided after a while to cancel the driver service and he was late again. The guy's a clown, plain and simple.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

I'm not going to spout off any stats or numbers or anything like that.For me, all I need to decide between the two is video.And after watching tape of both players, I think it's pretty clear that Martin is the superior player. Not one person has mentioned Martin's deceptive playing speed in this thread. He absolutely pulls away and creates separation in the open field. Whereas with Wilson, I see a good number of runs that he's chased down and tackled.Martin is the guy to draft. The guy to own for the next 5 years.And it's not even close for me. Not even close.....

Well you have to take into consideration his opposition; by and large, defenses in the Mountain West aren't as good as defenses in the ACC. And if Martin was able to pull away on long runs much better than Wilson was, then shouldn't the fact that Martin had a YPC of only 4.9 compared to Wilson's 5.9 be somewhat of a red flag?

 

[TheFanatic]

fwiw....http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1275200-bucs-1st-round-pick-martin-opens-camp-as-lead-running-back

How likely is this to stick? I'm a Martin owner and want to believe. Blount is pretty good though. I still find it hard to believe that the starting role will just be given to Martin.

Just look at Blount's behavior last year to see why.- reportedly fell asleep during team meetings.- he was always late, so late that the team had to have a driving service hired to get him the three miles to practice on time.- they decided after a while to cancel the driver service and he was late again. The guy's a clown, plain and simple.

Keep looking at last year and you are going to be left holding the bag this year. That article says nothing about 2012.Martin may have looked good in college, but lots of RB's do then can't do it in the pros. Blount has proven he can run the rock. If he learns to pass block, which is something that can be taught unlike speed, vision and power, he will get a lot of carries. Oh, and he needs to not fumble, but we've seen players learn better ball control as well (Tiki).For those hanging their hats on that article about how he was a screw up last year, realize that there are no reports of him doing that at all this year. Drafting a guy in the first round may have awakened some discipline in him to get his head out of his butt...And don't jump on me calling Martin a bust. I have no idea if he'll be a bust or not. But he's no guarantee to be a sure thing. Neither is Richardson. All we have to do is look at what Ingram did last year as the first RB off the board to a high power offense. Oh, and don't read fluff pieces about what a guy did last year. Schiano is a huge disciplinarian. If this was going on this year, he would already be cut. Schiano has nothing but positives for Blount.

 

[TheFanatic]

I'm not going to spout off any stats or numbers or anything like that.For me, all I need to decide between the two is video.And after watching tape of both players, I think it's pretty clear that Martin is the superior player. Not one person has mentioned Martin's deceptive playing speed in this thread. He absolutely pulls away and creates separation in the open field. Whereas with Wilson, I see a good number of runs that he's chased down and tackled.Martin is the guy to draft. The guy to own for the next 5 years.And it's not even close for me. Not even close.....

Well you have to take into consideration his opposition; by and large, defenses in the Mountain West aren't as good as defenses in the ACC. And if Martin was able to pull away on long runs much better than Wilson was, then shouldn't the fact that Martin had a YPC of only 4.9 compared to Wilson's 5.9 be somewhat of a red flag?

No way. The guy watched a bunch of videos and he said it was not even close. And he is a talent scout for... Oh wait.I love guys that ask me how much I've seen the guy play because they've seen more video or games of a guy. So what. We're all a bunch of idiots watching football on saturday and sunday, not paid to evaluate talent. We're FFB coaches, not NFL coaches...