Marvin Harrison is in freefall (1 Viewer)

[piratemike]

Is the fifth too early? 4th? Sixth?

 

[FantasyTrader]

The best value would be as a waiver pickup.

 

[unckeyherb]

Is the fifth too early? 4th? Sixth?

FWIW I took him at 3.11 in my keeper league. Keep two, so that pick translates to 5.11. Thought that was pretty great value as he is my WR3 behind Andre and Braylon.

 

[piratemike]

That bad? I thought with Peyton practicing he might be good value.

 

[jon_mx]

Is the fifth too early? 4th? Sixth?

Harrison will be a top 20 WR. There is no way he will be on a waiver wire unless the league is on crack.

 

[Couch Potato]

His general ADP is around late 4th, early 5th... somewhere in the WR19-22 range.

FBG staff consensus have him ranked much lower, at about WR31. Dodds has him at WR33. I think if he's healthy and Manning is healthy, and all signs point toward that happening, WR20 is a lot closer to the where I'd put him than WR30. How many WR30s have the potential to score 10 TDs that Harrison has?

 

[george]

He has played in all 3 preseason games, right? If so, I think that means the Colts feel pretty good about his health.

 

[Shooter McGavin]

I've done two drafts (10 team & 12 team), and he's gone in the early 5th in both of them.

 

[tick dog]

i think 5th is about right, 6th is a steal...high risk, yes, but high reward...he's certainly no riskier than other wr's in that range (e.g. jennings, cotchery, chambers, lee evans....) and few others there have 10+ TD potential ...JHMO, but I'd be ecstatic with marvin as a WR3 if I go RB, WR, WR/QB, RB, WR

 

[CalBear]

His general ADP is around late 4th, early 5th... somewhere in the WR19-22 range.FBG staff consensus have him ranked much lower, at about WR31. Dodds has him at WR33. I think if he's healthy and Manning is healthy, and all signs point toward that happening, WR20 is a lot closer to the where I'd put him than WR30. How many WR30s have the potential to score 10 TDs that Harrison has?

How many WR30s are 36 years old and had just 20 receptions and 1 TD last year?If Marvin comes back healthy and plays 16 games, he'll be in the top 20, but there is a lot more risk associated with Harrison than with other WRs being taken after him; he's being taken ahead of a number of WR1s in what should be good passing offenses (Driver, Cotchery, Chambers to name three examples). I don't like that level of risk at that point in the draft.

 

[Couch Potato]

His general ADP is around late 4th, early 5th... somewhere in the WR19-22 range.

FBG staff consensus have him ranked much lower, at about WR31. Dodds has him at WR33. I think if he's healthy and Manning is healthy, and all signs point toward that happening, WR20 is a lot closer to the where I'd put him than WR30. How many WR30s have the potential to score 10 TDs that Harrison has?

How many WR30s are 36 years old and had just 20 receptions and 1 TD last year?

Only one that we're talking about here, so who really cares how many? We know why he only had 20 receptions, It was injury. So?We're talking about one guy, on one team, in one offense. All indications are that he's recovered fully, and I think he'll do well. I'd much rather have Harrison in a redraft with Peyton throwing to him than, say, Berrian with TJax throwing to him.

 

[Doovz]

His general ADP is around late 4th, early 5th... somewhere in the WR19-22 range.

FBG staff consensus have him ranked much lower, at about WR31. Dodds has him at WR33. I think if he's healthy and Manning is healthy, and all signs point toward that happening, WR20 is a lot closer to the where I'd put him than WR30. How many WR30s have the potential to score 10 TDs that Harrison has?

How many WR30s are 36 years old and had just 20 receptions and 1 TD last year?

Only one that we're talking about here, so who really cares how many? We know why he only had 20 receptions, It was injury. So?We're talking about one guy, on one team, in one offense. All indications are that he's recovered fully, and I think he'll do well. I'd much rather have Harrison in a redraft with Peyton throwing to him than, say, Berrian with TJax throwing to him.

:whoosh:

 

[Ralph Furley]

Reminds me very much of Jerry Rice 1998, following his season ending knee injury in 1997. His final stats in 1997 were 7 Receptions for 78 yards.

Everyone thought he was getting old,he was done, etc, etc and finished the 1998 season with 82 Rec/ 1,157 yds and 9 TDs.

 

[David Yudkin]

His general ADP is around late 4th, early 5th... somewhere in the WR19-22 range.

FBG staff consensus have him ranked much lower, at about WR31. Dodds has him at WR33. I think if he's healthy and Manning is healthy, and all signs point toward that happening, WR20 is a lot closer to the where I'd put him than WR30. How many WR30s have the potential to score 10 TDs that Harrison has?

How many WR30s are 36 years old and had just 20 receptions and 1 TD last year?

Only one that we're talking about here, so who really cares how many? We know why he only had 20 receptions, It was injury. So?We're talking about one guy, on one team, in one offense. All indications are that he's recovered fully, and I think he'll do well. I'd much rather have Harrison in a redraft with Peyton throwing to him than, say, Berrian with TJax throwing to him.

I've asked the rhetorical question in other threads . . .Why did Harrison get full clearance a clean bill of health in Week 8 last year and went on to play . . . ZERO regular season games last year after that. He ended up missing almost 3 months for what was supposed to be a 3 week recovery time. And as I said, he got a full blessing for his health.

If you can answer that one (and I'm not saying any of us can), then we can move on to . . . what's different now then last year. Because I think there is a valid argument that nothing much has changed since then.

That is the crux of why some people are skeptical over Harrison. Any one factor alone probably is not a deal breaker (his age, his knee, his OL, his banged up QB, an able bodied young replacement, etc.) but when you add those on top of each other, there are a lot of questions all blended together.

Obviously at some point in any draft taking Harrison is worth the risk. I'm sure all of us will have a different point in the draft where we would consider him and take him. I doubt he will fall to that point for me this year (not that I have a line in the sand where I would say I had to take him).

 

[CalBear]

His general ADP is around late 4th, early 5th... somewhere in the WR19-22 range.

FBG staff consensus have him ranked much lower, at about WR31. Dodds has him at WR33. I think if he's healthy and Manning is healthy, and all signs point toward that happening, WR20 is a lot closer to the where I'd put him than WR30. How many WR30s have the potential to score 10 TDs that Harrison has?

How many WR30s are 36 years old and had just 20 receptions and 1 TD last year?

Only one that we're talking about here, so who really cares how many? We know why he only had 20 receptions, It was injury. So?We're talking about one guy, on one team, in one offense. All indications are that he's recovered fully, and I think he'll do well. I'd much rather have Harrison in a redraft with Peyton throwing to him than, say, Berrian with TJax throwing to him.

He may or may not have recovered fully; in either case any football player at age 36 is a significant risk. There have only been three WRs in history who had a 1000-yard season at age 36+ (Rice, Galloway, and Jimmy Smith). No WR has ever had 10 TDs in a season at age 36+.I would take Harrison over Berrian, but I wouldn't take him over the three I listed, and several more.

 

[Ralph Furley]

His general ADP is around late 4th, early 5th... somewhere in the WR19-22 range.

FBG staff consensus have him ranked much lower, at about WR31. Dodds has him at WR33. I think if he's healthy and Manning is healthy, and all signs point toward that happening, WR20 is a lot closer to the where I'd put him than WR30. How many WR30s have the potential to score 10 TDs that Harrison has?

How many WR30s are 36 years old and had just 20 receptions and 1 TD last year?

Only one that we're talking about here, so who really cares how many? We know why he only had 20 receptions, It was injury. So?We're talking about one guy, on one team, in one offense. All indications are that he's recovered fully, and I think he'll do well. I'd much rather have Harrison in a redraft with Peyton throwing to him than, say, Berrian with TJax throwing to him.

I've asked the rhetorical question in other threads . . .Why did Harrison get full clearance a clean bill of health in Week 8 last year and went on to play . . . ZERO regular season games last year after that. He ended up missing almost 3 months for what was supposed to be a 3 week recovery time. And as I said, he got a full blessing for his health.

If you can answer that one (and I'm not saying any of us can), then we can move on to . . . what's different now then last year. Because I think there is a valid argument that nothing much has changed since then.

That is the crux of why some people are skeptical over Harrison. Any one factor alone probably is not a deal breaker (his age, his knee, his OL, his banged up QB, an able bodied young replacement, etc.) but when you add those on top of each other, there are a lot of questions all blended together.

Obviously at some point in any draft taking Harrison is worth the risk. I'm sure all of us will have a different point in the draft where we would consider him and take him. I doubt he will fall to that point for me this year (not that I have a line in the sand where I would say I had to take him).

I am not sure what your point is? Are you saying that he was hurt more then they lead on or that he just gave up on football? Or are you saying his skills completely diminished overnight?

If I was a betting man, and to a degree we all obviously are, I would think that he was injured more than lead on.

I can't see a guy with his pedigree either A) Quiting mid-season or B) His skills diminishing overnight, which I believe you are implying.

Please correct me if I have misinterpreted your post.

 

[Sammy B]

i think 5th is about right, 6th is a steal...high risk, yes, but high reward...he's certainly no riskier than other wr's in that range (e.g. jennings, cotchery, chambers, lee evans....) and few others there have 10+ TD potential ...JHMO, but I'd be ecstatic with marvin as a WR3 if I go RB, WR, WR/QB, RB, WR

 

[David Yudkin]

His general ADP is around late 4th, early 5th... somewhere in the WR19-22 range.

FBG staff consensus have him ranked much lower, at about WR31. Dodds has him at WR33. I think if he's healthy and Manning is healthy, and all signs point toward that happening, WR20 is a lot closer to the where I'd put him than WR30. How many WR30s have the potential to score 10 TDs that Harrison has?

How many WR30s are 36 years old and had just 20 receptions and 1 TD last year?

Only one that we're talking about here, so who really cares how many? We know why he only had 20 receptions, It was injury. So?We're talking about one guy, on one team, in one offense. All indications are that he's recovered fully, and I think he'll do well. I'd much rather have Harrison in a redraft with Peyton throwing to him than, say, Berrian with TJax throwing to him.

I've asked the rhetorical question in other threads . . .Why did Harrison get full clearance a clean bill of health in Week 8 last year and went on to play . . . ZERO regular season games last year after that. He ended up missing almost 3 months for what was supposed to be a 3 week recovery time. And as I said, he got a full blessing for his health.

If you can answer that one (and I'm not saying any of us can), then we can move on to . . . what's different now then last year. Because I think there is a valid argument that nothing much has changed since then.

That is the crux of why some people are skeptical over Harrison. Any one factor alone probably is not a deal breaker (his age, his knee, his OL, his banged up QB, an able bodied young replacement, etc.) but when you add those on top of each other, there are a lot of questions all blended together.

Obviously at some point in any draft taking Harrison is worth the risk. I'm sure all of us will have a different point in the draft where we would consider him and take him. I doubt he will fall to that point for me this year (not that I have a line in the sand where I would say I had to take him).

I am not sure what your point is? Are you saying that he was hurt more then they lead on or that he just gave up on football? Or are you saying his skills completely diminished overnight?

If I was a betting man, and to a degree we all obviously are, I would think that he was injured more than lead on.

I can't see a guy with his pedigree either A) Quiting mid-season or B) His skills diminishing overnight, which I believe you are implying.

Please correct me if I have misinterpreted your post.

The story I had heard was he was not hurt after he was cleared to play and essentially he didn't want to play. We can debate whether that story is accurate or not.But we are left with either of two options:

- He was hurt more than was let on (thus making him an aging and banged up WR)

- He lost interest in playing and basically phoned it in the last part of the season and didn't really care that much about playing or winning

Either way, I'm not seeing those as great precursors for a big comeback season this year.

There are a lot of pieces to the puzzle missing from what happened last year. So to move forward as if those puzzle pieces weren't missing seems like the wrong thing to do.

Another option here is that Marvin is happy pulling in a big pay check and knows that the Colts would go through a P.R. nightmare in cutting him. So IMO it's not out of the question that Harrison tries when he feels like it but does not have the passion and desire to kill himself every play. That certainly is being very presumptuous on my part, but so are the people willing to say he's 100% healthy and willing to go to war 100%. In reality, we don't really know where he is health wise or mind wise.

Again in my opinion, I would be inclined to let another owner worry about him, whether he'll play each week, whether he'll try every play,etc. As others have mentioned, it's not like there aren't other players available without the drama and issues that come with MH.

And I'm not dissing Harrison. He's had a wonderful career, but IMO he's at a point where I don't think he willb e an elite producer anymore, mind games or no mind games. In theory, if he were to play every game he's probably produce in the Top 20-25, but for me that's not worth the hassle and worry.

Again, that's my opinion and others can have their own opinions, but I won't kill myself to draft Harrison this year.

 

[Fantaholic]

If Manning is healthy, then 3rd/4th round would be a deal. Anyhting after that larceny.

 

[aburt19]

If Manning is healthy, then 3rd/4th round would be a deal. Anyhting after that larceny.

That is why I know that I will almost never get a player like Harrison (or Chad Johnson with his shoulder problem). There is always one owner who thinksthat the player will produce as he has in the past or at least close to it. As a conservative drafter, I won't be that owner and will miss out on them.If the player bombs, does that make the owner who took him "wrong"? If he does produce, does it make the owner that didn't take him "wrong"? No to bothquestions. It's all about how much risk an owner wants to take. Any decisions about being wrong are all after the fact and hindsight is always 20/20.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

10th round

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

His general ADP is around late 4th, early 5th... somewhere in the WR19-22 range.

FBG staff consensus have him ranked much lower, at about WR31. Dodds has him at WR33. I think if he's healthy and Manning is healthy, and all signs point toward that happening, WR20 is a lot closer to the where I'd put him than WR30. How many WR30s have the potential to score 10 TDs that Harrison has?

How many WR30s are 36 years old and had just 20 receptions and 1 TD last year?

Only one that we're talking about here, so who really cares how many? We know why he only had 20 receptions, It was injury. So?We're talking about one guy, on one team, in one offense. All indications are that he's recovered fully, and I think he'll do well. I'd much rather have Harrison in a redraft with Peyton throwing to him than, say, Berrian with TJax throwing to him.

I've asked the rhetorical question in other threads . . .Why did Harrison get full clearance a clean bill of health in Week 8 last year and went on to play . . . ZERO regular season games last year after that. He ended up missing almost 3 months for what was supposed to be a 3 week recovery time. And as I said, he got a full blessing for his health.

If you can answer that one (and I'm not saying any of us can), then we can move on to . . . what's different now then last year. Because I think there is a valid argument that nothing much has changed since then.

That is the crux of why some people are skeptical over Harrison. Any one factor alone probably is not a deal breaker (his age, his knee, his OL, his banged up QB, an able bodied young replacement, etc.) but when you add those on top of each other, there are a lot of questions all blended together.

Obviously at some point in any draft taking Harrison is worth the risk. I'm sure all of us will have a different point in the draft where we would consider him and take him. I doubt he will fall to that point for me this year (not that I have a line in the sand where I would say I had to take him).

I am not sure what your point is? Are you saying that he was hurt more then they lead on or that he just gave up on football? Or are you saying his skills completely diminished overnight?

If I was a betting man, and to a degree we all obviously are, I would think that he was injured more than lead on.

I can't see a guy with his pedigree either A) Quiting mid-season or B) His skills diminishing overnight, which I believe you are implying.

Please correct me if I have misinterpreted your post.

The story I had heard was he was not hurt after he was cleared to play and essentially he didn't want to play. We can debate whether that story is accurate or not.But we are left with either of two options:

- He was hurt more than was let on (thus making him an aging and banged up WR)

- He lost interest in playing and basically phoned it in the last part of the season and didn't really care that much about playing or winning

Either way, I'm not seeing those as great precursors for a big comeback season this year.

There are a lot of pieces to the puzzle missing from what happened last year. So to move forward as if those puzzle pieces weren't missing seems like the wrong thing to do.

Another option here is that Marvin is happy pulling in a big pay check and knows that the Colts would go through a P.R. nightmare in cutting him. So IMO it's not out of the question that Harrison tries when he feels like it but does not have the passion and desire to kill himself every play. That certainly is being very presumptuous on my part, but so are the people willing to say he's 100% healthy and willing to go to war 100%. In reality, we don't really know where he is health wise or mind wise.

Again in my opinion, I would be inclined to let another owner worry about him, whether he'll play each week, whether he'll try every play,etc. As others have mentioned, it's not like there aren't other players available without the drama and issues that come with MH.

And I'm not dissing Harrison. He's had a wonderful career, but IMO he's at a point where I don't think he willb e an elite producer anymore, mind games or no mind games. In theory, if he were to play every game he's probably produce in the Top 20-25, but for me that's not worth the hassle and worry.

Again, that's my opinion and others can have their own opinions, but I won't kill myself to draft Harrison this year.

If Marvin phoned it in last year, why is he back? We are supposed to believe that Indy will tolerate, nay pay him big coin, because it's worried about PR?That simply doesn't pass the laugh test IMHO.

 

[David Yudkin]

His general ADP is around late 4th, early 5th... somewhere in the WR19-22 range.

FBG staff consensus have him ranked much lower, at about WR31. Dodds has him at WR33. I think if he's healthy and Manning is healthy, and all signs point toward that happening, WR20 is a lot closer to the where I'd put him than WR30. How many WR30s have the potential to score 10 TDs that Harrison has?

How many WR30s are 36 years old and had just 20 receptions and 1 TD last year?

Only one that we're talking about here, so who really cares how many? We know why he only had 20 receptions, It was injury. So?We're talking about one guy, on one team, in one offense. All indications are that he's recovered fully, and I think he'll do well. I'd much rather have Harrison in a redraft with Peyton throwing to him than, say, Berrian with TJax throwing to him.

I've asked the rhetorical question in other threads . . .Why did Harrison get full clearance a clean bill of health in Week 8 last year and went on to play . . . ZERO regular season games last year after that. He ended up missing almost 3 months for what was supposed to be a 3 week recovery time. And as I said, he got a full blessing for his health.

If you can answer that one (and I'm not saying any of us can), then we can move on to . . . what's different now then last year. Because I think there is a valid argument that nothing much has changed since then.

That is the crux of why some people are skeptical over Harrison. Any one factor alone probably is not a deal breaker (his age, his knee, his OL, his banged up QB, an able bodied young replacement, etc.) but when you add those on top of each other, there are a lot of questions all blended together.

Obviously at some point in any draft taking Harrison is worth the risk. I'm sure all of us will have a different point in the draft where we would consider him and take him. I doubt he will fall to that point for me this year (not that I have a line in the sand where I would say I had to take him).

I am not sure what your point is? Are you saying that he was hurt more then they lead on or that he just gave up on football? Or are you saying his skills completely diminished overnight?

If I was a betting man, and to a degree we all obviously are, I would think that he was injured more than lead on.

I can't see a guy with his pedigree either A) Quiting mid-season or B) His skills diminishing overnight, which I believe you are implying.

Please correct me if I have misinterpreted your post.

The story I had heard was he was not hurt after he was cleared to play and essentially he didn't want to play. We can debate whether that story is accurate or not.But we are left with either of two options:

- He was hurt more than was let on (thus making him an aging and banged up WR)

- He lost interest in playing and basically phoned it in the last part of the season and didn't really care that much about playing or winning

Either way, I'm not seeing those as great precursors for a big comeback season this year.

There are a lot of pieces to the puzzle missing from what happened last year. So to move forward as if those puzzle pieces weren't missing seems like the wrong thing to do.

Another option here is that Marvin is happy pulling in a big pay check and knows that the Colts would go through a P.R. nightmare in cutting him. So IMO it's not out of the question that Harrison tries when he feels like it but does not have the passion and desire to kill himself every play. That certainly is being very presumptuous on my part, but so are the people willing to say he's 100% healthy and willing to go to war 100%. In reality, we don't really know where he is health wise or mind wise.

Again in my opinion, I would be inclined to let another owner worry about him, whether he'll play each week, whether he'll try every play,etc. As others have mentioned, it's not like there aren't other players available without the drama and issues that come with MH.

And I'm not dissing Harrison. He's had a wonderful career, but IMO he's at a point where I don't think he willb e an elite producer anymore, mind games or no mind games. In theory, if he were to play every game he's probably produce in the Top 20-25, but for me that's not worth the hassle and worry.

Again, that's my opinion and others can have their own opinions, but I won't kill myself to draft Harrison this year.

If Marvin phoned it in last year, why is he back? We are supposed to believe that Indy will tolerate, nay pay him big coin, because it's worried about PR?That simply doesn't pass the laugh test IMHO.

This brings us right back to what I asked initially . . . what exactly happened last year because there is no plausbile story that makes any sense. It's like 2 + 2 = 8. THe whole thing does not add up.

 

[Challenge Everything]

Having medical clearance to play does not mean that the player will be effective on the field. Medical clearance does not mean that player is 100% back to what he was before. Harrison's injury could have been one to be one to reoccur at a higher percentage with less time he recovered. By not playing, his injury may (hopefully) has healed much more than had he played when medically cleared. I for one think he is at least 90% if not 100% back from his injury. If he falls to me in the 5th round or late 4th, depending what pick I get, I would be happy to draft him.

 

[zed2283]

Got him in the 7th round in one league, and for $7 (out of $120) in an auction league.

 

[Moe Green]

10th round

I'll bid 11th round.

 

[SteelerMurf]

My concern in drafting him is that they described the injury as a career lasting situation. Can he live with the pain or be as effective of a rout runner?

I chose to go TGonzalez in round 6 and passed on Marvin as my 3rd WR. He eventually went in the 7th round of my 10 team PPR league.

 

[Fantaholic]

If Manning is healthy, then 3rd/4th round would be a deal. Anyhting after that larceny.

That is why I know that I will almost never get a player like Harrison (or Chad Johnson with his shoulder problem). There is always one owner who thinksthat the player will produce as he has in the past or at least close to it. As a conservative drafter, I won't be that owner and will miss out on them.

If the player bombs, does that make the owner who took him "wrong"? If he does produce, does it make the owner that didn't take him "wrong"? No to both

questions. It's all about how much risk an owner wants to take. Any decisions about being wrong are all after the fact and hindsight is always 20/20.

I actually am a conservative drafter, and I think convservatively speaking that is, that a guy that has been the MODEL of consistency over the last decade at his position deserves some slack for one bad injury-riddled season. Assuming health and there hasn't been any news to suggest the contrary, Harrison is as much a lock for 1000+ and 8-12 TD's as anyone. Whether or not he has aged, lost step or what have you he will still produce. Unlike T.O. or Moss, Harrison's production will not drop off drastically, because he is fundamentally perfect. He will make up for loss in physical attributes with unbelievable work ethic and precise routes. I remember pleading a case very similar to this one last year with regard to Portis before the draft. I guess we'll have to wait and see.Edited to add: It doesn't hurt that he has one of the best QB's of our time throwing to him that he just so happens to have better chemistry with than Sonny & Cher, did...

 

[piratemike]

If passing on Marvin in the early-mid rounds, what kind of players are you sharks taking over him?

 

[David Dodds]

If passing on Marvin in the early-mid rounds, what kind of players are you sharks taking over him?

Younger players that want to play.Did anyone see Marvin when he finally stepped on the field in the playoffs? Mentally he wasn't there. He was playing scared. I am with David Yudkin here. It's not just the age and injuries, it's the desire that he clearly did not have after the medical staff said he was good to go 8 weeks before he stepped on the field. So far this preseason I have not seen the same fearless receiver we all loved. I remain skeptical that he rebounds at all. At or near WR20, he is being drafted on name only. I know I will be shocked if finishes anywhere near that level by season's end.

 

[geneyus]

I picked him up at 8.11 (34th WR picked)