Marvin Harrison WR28? (1 Viewer)

[DoubleG]

Of the top 20 all-time leaders in receiving yards, you won't find anyone who maintained their production beyond the wall of age 34/35. If they suffered an injury in their early 30s, this is especially true. Even a physical fitness freak with an uber regimine (Rice) fell off sharply.

He may well be a starter for a few more years, and I can see him being productive, but not much beyond 800 yards and 6 TDs.

Blasphemy, eh? Don't take my word for it; look at every single player on this list in the top 20 (ages are listed next to each season), then tell me Harrison will be different from every other great WR the game has ever known.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/lead..._yds_career.htm

You honestly believe he will defy what has happened to every other great wide receier in the last 40 years? Why?

Jerry Rice was still a beast at 34 and 36. Tim Brown went for 91-1165-9 at age 35. Cris Carter caught 90+ balls, for 1200+ yards, with 13 and 9 TDs at ages 34 and 35.Marvin is as good of a route runner as there ever has been in the league. If there is anyone on that list who I think could catch 90 balls at age 35, it's Marvin Harrison in an offense he has mastered, with Peyton Manning throwing to him.

Harrison will be 36 in a week and half - and he didn't catch 90 balls last year at age 35. I'm just pointing out that Harrison is at least a year or 2 older than all of your examples.

 

[Kevin Ashcraft]

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...=412353&hl=

I posted this there.......

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Here is why I don't think he goes anywhere near what most are thinking.....

The man will be 36 in two weeks......here are the seasons of guys 36 and older who have more than 65 catches in a season......according to our historical Data Dominator

NAME POS YR AGE EXP G REC RECYD YD/REC RECTD FANT PT1 Jimmy Smith wr 2005 36 14 16 70 1023 14.61 6 138.302 Tim Brown wr 2002 36 15 16 81 930 11.48 2 106.903 Jerry Rice wr 2002 40 18 16 92 1211 13.16 7 165.104 Cris Carter wr 2001 36 15 16 73 871 11.93 6 123.505 Jerry Rice wr 2001 39 17 16 83 1139 13.72 9 167.906 Jerry Rice wr 2000 38 16 16 75 805 10.73 7 122.307 Jerry Rice wr 1999 37 15 16 67 830 12.39 5 114.308 Jerry Rice wr 1998 36 14 16 82 1157 14.11 9 169.709 Charlie Joiner wr 1983 36 15 16 65 960 14.77 3 114.00Could it happen, sure, but take out the times Rice did it and look at the previous season's for the four others in Year N-1Smith in 2004 - played in every game, had 74 catches for 1172 yards

Brown in 2001 - played in every game, had 91 catches for 1165 yards

Carter in 2000 - played in every game, had 96 catches, 1200 yards

Joiner in 1982 - played in all nine games, was on pace for 64 catches

Harrison, as noted, missed 11 games. Could he be another Jerry Rice, who in his age 35 season played in two games and came back for several more seasons? I guess he could, but it is very long odds.

 

[Dry H]

HONDA

Interesting thread. I posted the same thread last week when Dodds had Harrison WR #43.

Looks like Harrison is moving up.

#28 is about his value. I have him at WR #24, but can't argue that much over 4 or 5 spots.

WR #43 last week was a tad out of wack.

 

[travdogg]

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...=412353&hl=

I posted this there.......

----------

Here is why I don't think he goes anywhere near what most are thinking.....

The man will be 36 in two weeks......here are the seasons of guys 36 and older who have more than 65 catches in a season......according to our historical Data Dominator

NAME POS YR AGE EXP G REC RECYD YD/REC RECTD FANT PT1 Jimmy Smith wr 2005 36 14 16 70 1023 14.61 6 138.302 Tim Brown wr 2002 36 15 16 81 930 11.48 2 106.903 Jerry Rice wr 2002 40 18 16 92 1211 13.16 7 165.104 Cris Carter wr 2001 36 15 16 73 871 11.93 6 123.505 Jerry Rice wr 2001 39 17 16 83 1139 13.72 9 167.906 Jerry Rice wr 2000 38 16 16 75 805 10.73 7 122.307 Jerry Rice wr 1999 37 15 16 67 830 12.39 5 114.308 Jerry Rice wr 1998 36 14 16 82 1157 14.11 9 169.709 Charlie Joiner wr 1983 36 15 16 65 960 14.77 3 114.00Could it happen, sure, but take out the times Rice did it and look at the previous season's for the four others in Year N-1Smith in 2004 - played in every game, had 74 catches for 1172 yards

Brown in 2001 - played in every game, had 91 catches for 1165 yards

Carter in 2000 - played in every game, had 96 catches, 1200 yards

Joiner in 1982 - played in all nine games, was on pace for 64 catches

Harrison, as noted, missed 11 games. Could he be another Jerry Rice, who in his age 35 season played in two games and came back for several more seasons? I guess he could, but it is very long odds.

Harrison has one major advantage over all of those guys except Rice in 98'. Harrison has an elite QB who he has an excellent rapport with. If Harrison stays healthy(big if) there is no way he finishes with fewer than 8 TD's. Yards could be trickier, but its not like he's one of the top-10 WR's of the board. I think Harrison has top-10 upside, although a lot closer to 10th than 5th. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see him put up similar numbers to guys like Torry Holt and TJ Houshmandzadeh and he goes at least 2 rounds later, in some cases 3-4 rounds later.Basically Harrison is the highest upside WR3 I see this year, in some league he may go as a WR2 and I can understand if people don't want to take a risk with him as an everyweek starter, but he'll probably be worth it.

In Summary, I think WR28 is a fair ranking, but of all the guy outside of the top-20, Harrison is the most likely to have a top-10 season.

 

[mdog1967]

I am a firm believer in David Dodds top 300 or top 220 this year. He has Marvin Harrison listed as the 28th WR. Does anyone one else think this is a little low? Does'nt his preseason work bring his rank up? He looks healthy and is only one year out from elite statis.

What to make of Marvin Harrison?1. Its not off the wall for leaguers to be weary of drafting Harrison before the first 25 or 30 receivers are off the board, it’s also not outrageous to take him in the top 20. Harrison is known as a WR who takes very little contact. Understanding his value to the Colts over the years Marvin rarely absorbs punishing blows that take a tremendous physical toll on others in the league. He’s not soft, he’s smart.2. Last years performance should raise major flags. What happened? I think Harrison suffered from some letdown after the Colts won the Super-bowl. Yes he had an injury but when you are frustrated by years of almost - and then it finally happens…..well I think the wind just went out of his sails.3. I would look for a return to the mean for Harrison – Almost. Reggie Wayne is the clear number one and with Gonzo developing into a good option there will be fewer reasons to keep feeding balls to any one WR on the colts. I would downgrade Wayne a slight bit and put Harrison as a top 20 with top 15 WR upside. If you’re looking for a repeat of Dallas Clark numbers from last year I think that is not going to happen with Marvin back on the field. Harrison would have been the guy catching many of those passes if he would have been in those games.4. Peyton manning is still a top 2 QB and has a long relationship with Harrison, don’t discount the loyalty and Chemistry of a long time QB and his number one WR.Season ending stats for 2008: 70-85 receptions, 950 to 1100 yards 7-10 Td’s, two 100 yard plus games.Gun to my head I'll take a chance on Harrison over Steve Smith of the Panthers this year.

 

[go jints]

I have Harrison ranked at WR26.

For two main reasons I think he will not return to elite form.

1. The Colts have a several other very good options which was not always the case in Marvin's prime.

- Reggie Wayne has developed into an elite WR

- Manning and Clark developed into a very good combination (especially in the red zone) in Harrisons absence last year.

- Gonzales continues to devleop into a good WR

2. Marvin is getting old and while he still can be solid I expect a decrease in explosiveness. In preseason he has caught some balls but has very little YAC. I see him turning into a Derrick Mason type that will catch some balls but have relatively low yards per reception average,

 

[Liquid Tension]

People can find flaws all they want but he is closing in on records to keep him motivated. Being on a good team is motivating and the fact he was the #1 receiver before last year speaks to a guy who wont just lose it overnight. The injury appears to be fine and players don't just fall off cliffs without another injury. Therefore, unless you are projecting an injury, it is a mistake if you expect him to fall all the way to the 28th WR. My guess would be about 15-20.

What is important is how has he looked?

 

[BusterTBronco]

Marvin Harrison is done. D-O-N-E, done! If he had any pride, he would retire and not ruin his legacy with the season he is about to have.Marvin Harrison 2008 = Rod Smith 2006

I take it your sig line is indicative of your FF accumen.

How's my fantasy football acumen? Better than yours, apparently.Marvin Harrison's stat line on the day: 1 catch, 16 yards, no touchdownsI would say that he stinks but will refrain from doing so for want of not restating the obvious.