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Massive testing (1 Viewer)

timschochet said:
Have you guys noticed that you spend a lot more time catching me and others in mistakes than you spend actually discussing the issues at hand? Fine I screwed up when I wrote that I didn’t mention Trump. Do you want a prize? 
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Think you replied to the wrong guy with this one.  Full stop

 
Mr Anonymous said:
Then use a search engine and go find it. It's literally world news, not hypothesis.
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@Mr Anonymous I didn’t come up with my position based on some ulterior motive. For about a month now, or longer, every medical expert I have watched on TV or read has said that the only way to open up again is with massive testing. Every one of them, 100%. At least among the medical types there appears to be no dissent whatsoever. The reason I used “full stop” in my OP is because I was pretty sure it wasn’t a debatable issue, what is debatable is how we’re going about it. I thought (stupidly I guess) that it would be the “top down” approach to it that we would be discussing and debating in here: I’m well aware that many Republicans, including President Trump, don’t agree with that approach. I think they’re wrong. But I never really considered that anyone would take issue with the concept of massive testing itself. And I’m still having trouble believing it. 

 
timschochet said:
@Mr Anonymous I didn’t come up with my position based on some ulterior motive. For about a month now, or longer, every medical expert I have watched on TV or read has said that the only way to open up again is with massive testing. Every one of them, 100%. At least among the medical types there appears to be no dissent whatsoever. The reason I used “full stop” in my OP is because I was pretty sure it wasn’t a debatable issue, what is debatable is how we’re going about it. I thought (stupidly I guess) that it would be the “top down” approach to it that we would be discussing and debating in here: I’m well aware that many Republicans, including President Trump, don’t agree with that approach. I think they’re wrong. But I never really considered that anyone would take issue with the concept of massive testing itself. And I’m still having trouble believing it. 
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Why do you think they're saying it's the only way? I'm not accusing you of being ok with a cratered economy destroying the lives of millions to justify the end of a means. I'm accusing the people who are the source of the info you consume. Whatever your chosen news sources are, they're keeping you from a full picture. A shut down until massive testing is not the only option and alternative approaches are on full display for all if they choose to look for it.

 
Mr Anonymous said:
Why do you think they're saying it's the only way? I'm not accusing you of being ok with a cratered economy destroying the lives of millions to justify the end of a means. I'm accusing the people who are the source of the info you consume. Whatever your chosen news sources are, they're keeping you from a full picture. A shut down until massive testing is not the only option and alternative approaches are on full display for all if they choose to look for it.
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it's not hard to say where.  You can do it.  come on...don't leave everyone hanging.  Tell me who is opening the country strategically without testing.

 
timschochet said:
Have you guys noticed that you spend a lot more time catching me and others in mistakes than you spend actually discussing the issues at hand? Fine I screwed up when I wrote that I didn’t mention Trump. Do you want a prize? 
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Dude..there might be a reason for that.  Generally you're the only one this happens to. Ask yourself why

 
Mr Anonymous said:
Why do you think they're saying it's the only way? I'm not accusing you of being ok with a cratered economy destroying the lives of millions to justify the end of a means. I'm accusing the people who are the source of the info you consume. Whatever your chosen news sources are, they're keeping you from a full picture. A shut down until massive testing is not the only option and alternative approaches are on full display for all if they choose to look for it.
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In thread after thread, multiple people have asked for details on how we're going to reopen without massive testing and tracing.  I have yet to see a response other than the one in this thread stating that the info is out there and we should find it ourselves.

I've looked.  I can't find it.  Again, maybe it's my fault.  But if you have the info, I'm unclear why you would refuse to share it.

 
James Daulton said:
Can someone else help out here?  This is a pretty sick accusation and we should make sure we’re dealing in facts.
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https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/767952-did-2016-russian-meddling-or-911-do-greater-long-term-damage-to-the-us/

Oh wow, it's actually closer to two years ago. And I have conflated over time meddling (which led to Trump) with Trump himself, so my bad on that. I must have been remembering early polling because I thought it was a lot higher considering how hot I remember being over it. But as it stands, incorrect on my assertion.

 
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I believe it is possible for countries to open up short of massive testing.  However, that requires that they took swift and dramatic actions early in the spread - early testing, strict quarantines, early shutdowns, and widespread adoption of masks.  the first countries to open up handled the early onset extremely well and can now re-open.  The places that did this were the same places that were hit the hardest with SARS - notably China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore.  Because the virus was well controlled from the outset, they were able to contain and can move on.

Unfortunately, becasue of the size of our country and our current penetration rate, we have to test much, much more than they had to.  Had we been testing at the rate South Korea was when the virus was initially spreading, our current position would be much different and much less testing would be required today.

 
moleculo said:
I believe it is possible for countries to open up short of massive testing.  However, that requires that they took swift and dramatic actions early in the spread - early testing, strict quarantines, early shutdowns, and widespread adoption of masks.  the first countries to open up handled the early onset extremely well and can now re-open.  The places that did this were the same places that were hit the hardest with SARS - notably China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore.  Because the virus was well controlled from the outset, they were able to contain and can move on.

Unfortunately, becasue of the size of our country and our current penetration rate, we have to test much, much more than they had to.  Had we been testing at the rate South Korea was when the virus was initially spreading, our current position would be much different and much less testing would be required today.
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What's being missed is our geographic size. The controls other countries needed (such as masks) to bring their numbers into manageable range, aren't needed to achieve the same result in much of the U.S. where the sheer size of our land mass has kept the numbers in controllable range. And we could easily open places where hospitals are having no issues via the use of masks and other control measures.

 
According to Worldometers, here's a list of countries with a lower death rate than the US and who are testing less than the US (both on a per capita basis).  The list is sorted in terms of deaths per capita.  Looking at the countries on this list, I think it's fair to assume that the data isn't completely accurate.

Country, Deaths/ 1M pop, Tests/ 1M pop

  1. India, 0.2, 137
  2. Pakistan, 0.4, 295
  3. South Africa, 0.4, 1350
  4. Thailand, 0.6, 1030
  5. Indonesia, 1, 99
  6. Japan, 1, 612
  7. Azerbaijan, 1, 6576
  8. Egypt, 2, 244
  9. Mexico, 2, 284
  10. Argentina, 2, 437
  11. Ukraine, 2, 743
  12. Colombia, 2, 821
  13. Iraq, 2, 940
  14. Malaysia, 2, 2525
  15. Saudi Arabia, 2, 3320
  16. Morocco, 3, 243
  17. Philippines, 3, 309
  18. Belarus, 3, 7196
  19. Chile, 4, 4448
  20. Armenia, 5, 2575
  21. Brazil, 6, 296
  22. Peru, 6, 2320
  23. Poland, 6, 3795
  24. Croatia, 6, 4333
  25. Algeria, 7, 77
  26. Moldova, 9, 1555
  27. Greece, 9, 4165
  28. Serbia, 10, 2399
  29. Hungary, 11, 3604
  30. Finland, 11, 8302
  31. Bosnia and Herzegovina, 12, 3539
  32. Turkey, 14, 4459
  33. Dominican Republic, 16, 855
  34. Romania, 17, 3493
  35. Ecuador, 19, 1340
  36. Panama, 20, 3511
  37. Iran, 55, 3279
  38. USA, 69, 8651
  39. Sweden, 91, 5416
  40. Netherlands, 165, 6769
  41. UK, 167, 5416
  42. France, 221, 5114
 
Massive testing, and saying it's the only way we can end the shut down, is just another blanket solution when a more focused one is required. Let's not make the same mistake twice.

 
moleculo said:
I don't think this should be political.  We should all want more testing.  It's embarassing that we are so far behind the rest of the developed world WRT testing.  I mean, it was embarassing in February.  now it's the middle of April and we are still lagging.  We are 43rd in the world in tests per capita.  43rd. 

I agree with @timschochet that testing is the way forward.  That's the only way we get data, and therefore the only way we can make data-informed decisions.  This is a no-brainer.  
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New York state has done about three times more testing per capita than the US (incl NY state). It clearly is within the realm of the possible to up the testing dramatically. California has done barely 25% of the testing NY has, per capita.  Texas even less

 
another interesting stat is # of tests per death.  Countries with a really high number are getting a lot of tests done relative to the severity of the problem, countries with a really low number are obviously not testing anywhere near enough.

Country, tests per death

  1. Thailand, 1797
  2. Saudi Arabia, 1778
  3. Lithuania, 1729
  4. Estonia, 1139
  5. Malaysia, 1061
  6. Israel, 1038
  7. Chile, 1037
  8. Norway, 957
  9. Czechia, 898
  10. Finland, 780
  11. Croatia, 712
  12. Pakistan, 700
  13. Slovenia, 644
  14. Japan, 629
  15. Canada, 589
  16. Poland, 586
  17. India, 571
  18. Armenia, 545
  19. Iraq, 485
  20. Greece, 439
  21. Germany, 436
  22. Luxembourg, 425
  23. Austria, 403
  24. Peru, 396
  25. Colombia, 383
  26. Ukraine, 349
  27. Hungary, 319
  28. Turkey, 314
  29. Portugal, 306
  30. Bosnia and Herzegovina, 298
  31. Denmark, 253
  32. Serbia, 247
  33. Ireland, 216
  34. Romania, 211
  35. Argentina, 204
  36. Moldova, 179
  37. Panama, 174
  38. Switzerland, 170
  39. Egypt, 157
  40. USA, 125
  41. Mexico, 124
  42. Philippines, 107
  43. Morocco, 75
  44. Ecuador, 71
  45. Indonesia, 68
  46. Iran, 60
  47. Sweden, 60
  48. Dominican Republic, 52
  49. Italy, 51
  50. Brazil, 50
  51. Netherlands, 41
  52. Spain, 34
  53. UK, 32
  54. Belgium, 26
  55. France, 23
  56. Algeria, 11
 
And now, just the latest reason we can't simply keep everything shut down while we wait for mass testing...

False Negatives Raise Doctors' Doubts About Coronavirus Tests

Calls into question ALL of the data we're basing decisions on.

Some doctors described situations in which patients show up with clear symptoms such as a cough and fever, test negative, and then test positive later on.
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“If a patient presents with classic Covid symptoms, but tests negative, they’ve still got Covid,” said Sperling, who is the chair of emergency medicine at the hospital. “There is just nothing else it could be in New York City in 2020.”
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Yes, you read that right. If if you test negative right now with active symptoms, you're still being counted as a Covid-19 case. But if the tests done today on patients with mysterious cases of something back in December and January come back negative, there's no way they had this. Yeah, ok sure.

It's time to be smart and have appropriate response in appropriate places.

 
I’ll get through pages 2 and 3 shortly, and if this has already been offered I apologize, but...

Guys, there hasn’t been a single full stop exercised yet.  You’re all practicing rolling stops, adjust accordingly 

 
Mr Anonymous said:
And now, just the latest reason we can't simply keep everything shut down while we wait for mass testing...

False Negatives Raise Doctors' Doubts About Coronavirus Tests

Calls into question ALL of the data we're basing decisions on.

Some doctors described situations in which patients show up with clear symptoms such as a cough and fever, test negative, and then test positive later on.
Click to expand...


“If a patient presents with classic Covid symptoms, but tests negative, they’ve still got Covid,” said Sperling, who is the chair of emergency medicine at the hospital. “There is just nothing else it could be in New York City in 2020.”
Click to expand...


Yes, you read that right. If if you test negative right now with active symptoms, you're still being counted as a Covid-19 case. But if the tests done today on patients with mysterious cases of something back in December and January come back negative, there's no way they had this. Yeah, ok sure.

It's time to be smart and have appropriate response in appropriate places.
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I'm not sure he means you are counted as COVID-19, I think he means you are being treated as if you have COVID.

 
moleculo said:
I'm not sure he means you are counted as COVID-19, I think he means you are being treated as if you have COVID.
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Didn't know they're keeping a separate count? Do you really think they are?

This picking and choosing what to count and what not to count is serving something. And it's certainly not to paint the most accurate picture possible.

 
Mr Anonymous said:
Didn't know they're keeping a separate count? Do you really think they are?

This picking and choosing what to count and what not to count is serving something. And it's certainly not to paint the most accurate picture possible.
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i have no idea how they are counting.  Perhaps you could google it?

 
Serious question: even under a "normal", prepared president, how long would it take to produce a minimum 330 million test kits, and likely probably double or more because some people need to be tested multiple times?

 
ShamrockPride said:
Serious question: even under a "normal", prepared president, how long would it take to produce a minimum 330 million test kits, and likely probably double or more because some people need to be tested multiple times?
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Well this depends. 

If you use the DPA and put ALL of America’s manufacturing power, spend whatever it costs? A couple of months. Nothing is more important than this right now. 

 
ShamrockPride said:
Serious question: even under a "normal", prepared president, how long would it take to produce a minimum 330 million test kits, and likely probably double or more because some people need to be tested multiple times?
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No one is proposing this.  What is being proposed is mass trace testing so we can open the country.

Kind of like what should have been done at the onset of this pandemic. 

 
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