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Matt Forte - #6RB in FBG consensus rankings (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter LHUCKS
- Start date
It is not just that. Add in a legitimate #1 Wide receiver who Cutler already has displayed great chemistry with in the past and a top draft pick wide out that is looking great pre-season. Almost zero chance that offense runs through Forte to the degree it did last year. Im not saying he isnt a good running back but I can tell you I wanted to high 5 the guy in the draft who picked him round 1 and left me Chris Johnson to scoop up.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I share the concerns. The Tice recently said that he wants both backs to have 1,000 yard seasons, too.
geoff8695
Footballguy
Forte is the same player that he's always been, as long as he remains healthy.
What people are missing in this equation is that Forte has never been a short yardage/red zone/TD specialist. That's certainly the role that Bush will fill, but it's never been Forte's game to begin with...
Still good for 1500+ combined yds and 4-8TDs, but more of a PPR value. In non-PPR formats he's a RB2.
What people are missing in this equation is that Forte has never been a short yardage/red zone/TD specialist. That's certainly the role that Bush will fill, but it's never been Forte's game to begin with...
Still good for 1500+ combined yds and 4-8TDs, but more of a PPR value. In non-PPR formats he's a RB2.
Manster
Footballguy
I'm a little concerned, but Forte is a much more dynamic back than Bush. Forte is still one of the safest bets of all RBs this year, imo. I think Bush will prolly vulture a few TD's, get some short yardage work, a series here and there. This will keep Forte fresh to tear it up.
Fullback Fro
yesno
Name some you like better
LHUCKS
Footballguy
non PPR, Murray/Lynch/JacksonMaybe a few others but these are slam dunks for me over a timeshare Forte.
Fullback Fro
yesno
How is Fred Jackson not in a time share?
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Steven Jackson Also, Fred Jackson is not in a split carries situation to the extent that Forte is.
geoff8695
Footballguy
The 'timeshare' notion is overplayed. Plus Jackson at 31.5 yrs of age is playing with house money, but unlikely to keep up last season's ridiculous levels of production. Murray has enormous upside, but equally large injury risk, and iirc merely 6 NFL starts under his belt. With the possible exception of Lynch, those guys just aren't as 'safe' as Forte. As long as he remains healthy you can pencil in Forte's 1500+ combined yds. After that, you're at the mercy of his TD production, but he's never really been a red zone TD guy anyways.
Epic Problem
Footballguy
It's easy to not like things you aren't knowledgable about.
Jimbo Slice
Footballguy
I'm not 100% but I'm pretty sure this was said right when they signed bush. Not recently. Someone just dragged it back up about a week ago.
matuski
Footballguy
Do you have insight to the extent Forte will be splitting carries?
I'm not 100% sure either, but I don't think Tice has ever acknowledged saying this. Bush claims that when he was signed, Tice told him he wanted both RBs to get 1000 yards. Just to refresh people's memories, this is the same man who promised Randy Moss he would get 40% of the Vikings passes throw at him. So, IF Tice actually said this, it could be attributed to him having diarrhea of the mouth, as he's been prone to do.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
The Bears gave Forte 4/32 with $17m in guaranteed money to split carries with Michael Bush?
RavenLunatic
Footballguy
I'm torn with Forte as he is one of the last RB1s that are generally safe. Quality #2's like M Bush happen but the advantage I see in a high quality backup being available is that you can draft the guy as a RB4. Just don't over draft that player.
Foster has Tate and no one is getting all worked up over splitting carries. And Tate was drafted to be the guy in Houston. Maybe that is the elephant in the room.
McCoy could easily get a few breathers from talented players like Lewis and especially Brown at the goal line.
If anything Forte is discounted because people have seen the worst case scenario?
Maybe this is all an argument to take a QB early
Foster has Tate and no one is getting all worked up over splitting carries. And Tate was drafted to be the guy in Houston. Maybe that is the elephant in the room.
McCoy could easily get a few breathers from talented players like Lewis and especially Brown at the goal line.
If anything Forte is discounted because people have seen the worst case scenario?
Maybe this is all an argument to take a QB early
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Vibe Raiders
Footballguy
Forte/Chester Taylor, Forte/Marion Barber, now Forte/Bush....splitting losing carries again
deja vu anyone, any trends here? I will happily take my chances =)
deja vu anyone, any trends here? I will happily take my chances =)
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I have been drafting him in the 11-12 spot in a ppr with confidence. They didn't sign him to split carries with a Bush. Bush was brought in as a quality back up to give forte a blow, work the goal line, and provide insurance. People seem to have this idea that Bush is a very talented player because he put up good fantasy numbers in a featured role last year when dmac went down. His YPC average that year was under 4 (just 3.8 and declined as the year went on I beleive). My guess is a 70-30 or 75-25 split of the carries, with Forte also seeing the vast majority of the passing down work.
If you want to know what I expect Bush's role to be, just look at what he did an Oakland. An above average back up who was brought in to give Mcfadden a rest and bruise around the goal line. If the Bears are trying to split the carries between these two they are asking for trouble.
Forte deserves to be number 6 in a ppr because he has proven to be durable (with the exception of the knee injury last year, but he still finished #11 in ppr). Out of a possible 60 games he has played 64 in his career.. thats pretty damn good. He has also always been productive, and in fact last year saw career highs in effectiveness both running (4.8 ypc) and receiving (was on pace for 70 receptions). He also is a player who is generally at an age where they are approaching their prime (around the same as ray rice, arian foster, lesean mccoy, etc). I think that while other players arguably have more upside, outside the top 5 rb's, few have as little downside as Forte. I also don't see the presence of Marshall as a bad thing like others seem to.. if they have to worry about the passing game more they can't just load the box and all out blitz like teams have had so much success doing on the bears. While this could provide for a down tick in receptions for Forte, it should be supplemented by an up tick in rushing yards. The guy was on pace to finish right with the Fosters, Mccoy's, and Rice's of the league last year and talent wins out in sports. The dude can play. I could just be blind since I happen to have him in a lot of leagues this year, but this is research I did well before those drafts. Take it for what you will and good luck this year! Can't wait for football to start!
If you want to know what I expect Bush's role to be, just look at what he did an Oakland. An above average back up who was brought in to give Mcfadden a rest and bruise around the goal line. If the Bears are trying to split the carries between these two they are asking for trouble.
Forte deserves to be number 6 in a ppr because he has proven to be durable (with the exception of the knee injury last year, but he still finished #11 in ppr). Out of a possible 60 games he has played 64 in his career.. thats pretty damn good. He has also always been productive, and in fact last year saw career highs in effectiveness both running (4.8 ypc) and receiving (was on pace for 70 receptions). He also is a player who is generally at an age where they are approaching their prime (around the same as ray rice, arian foster, lesean mccoy, etc). I think that while other players arguably have more upside, outside the top 5 rb's, few have as little downside as Forte. I also don't see the presence of Marshall as a bad thing like others seem to.. if they have to worry about the passing game more they can't just load the box and all out blitz like teams have had so much success doing on the bears. While this could provide for a down tick in receptions for Forte, it should be supplemented by an up tick in rushing yards. The guy was on pace to finish right with the Fosters, Mccoy's, and Rice's of the league last year and talent wins out in sports. The dude can play. I could just be blind since I happen to have him in a lot of leagues this year, but this is research I did well before those drafts. Take it for what you will and good luck this year! Can't wait for football to start!
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I don't think he is.
geoff8695
Footballguy
As already mentioned, the Bears recently paid Forte with a long term deal that made all parties happy. He and the Bears have every intention of maintaining his importance/effectiveness within the offense. Based on historical usage, Bush's presence won't be enough to change that. There is MORE than enough room to accomodate Bush in the supporting role that he was brought in to fulfill. The whole 'sky is falling'-Bush is going to steal from Forte's production crowd couldn't be more wrong...
Just look at Forte's career numbers. He is a 250 carry, 70 target, 50 reception RB.
Forte's fantasy value doesn't depend on becoming a 400 touch bellcow RB with double digit TDs. If it did the addition of Bush could be a real problem.
Last year, the Bears had 456 rushing plays and in 2010 they had 414. I'm willing to wager that they with all of the improvements made on offense they will actually have more total plays in 2012 than in either of the past two seasons, and should have at least 450 rushing plays again in 2012 at a minimum. However, Forte's workload of 250/50 really doesn't require an increase in total number of plays. So if I'm correct, there's actually an opportunity for Forte to get an INCREASE in his workload! In this scenario Forte would actually exceed his career averages...
Either way, Bush can easily have 150-200 rushes of his own without impacting Forte's historical 250 rushes per season. So if Tice is serious about wanting to have a pair of 1000 yd. rushers, then it could happen with Forte getting an even greater workload (not a reduction). Therefore, I have zero concerns about Bush taking away from what was already a very reasonable workload that Forte historically averages. But if you're truly worried about Bush impacting Forte, then stay away. But at seaon's end when Forte once again proves himself as one of the safest RB options in FF, putting up over 1500 total yds and several TDs, don't say I didn't tell you so...
Just look at Forte's career numbers. He is a 250 carry, 70 target, 50 reception RB.
Forte's fantasy value doesn't depend on becoming a 400 touch bellcow RB with double digit TDs. If it did the addition of Bush could be a real problem.
Last year, the Bears had 456 rushing plays and in 2010 they had 414. I'm willing to wager that they with all of the improvements made on offense they will actually have more total plays in 2012 than in either of the past two seasons, and should have at least 450 rushing plays again in 2012 at a minimum. However, Forte's workload of 250/50 really doesn't require an increase in total number of plays. So if I'm correct, there's actually an opportunity for Forte to get an INCREASE in his workload! In this scenario Forte would actually exceed his career averages...
Either way, Bush can easily have 150-200 rushes of his own without impacting Forte's historical 250 rushes per season. So if Tice is serious about wanting to have a pair of 1000 yd. rushers, then it could happen with Forte getting an even greater workload (not a reduction). Therefore, I have zero concerns about Bush taking away from what was already a very reasonable workload that Forte historically averages. But if you're truly worried about Bush impacting Forte, then stay away. But at seaon's end when Forte once again proves himself as one of the safest RB options in FF, putting up over 1500 total yds and several TDs, don't say I didn't tell you so...
HurryUpSundays
Footballguy
Lhucks,
Could you please provide some credibility to your claim that they will be splitting carries?
Otherwise, it sounds like you're a guy who owns Michael Bush and is looking for more votes of confidence that you didn't reach too far for him.
In all seriousness, I'd appreciate where you came up with the 'timeshare' claim.
Thanks.
Could you please provide some credibility to your claim that they will be splitting carries?
Otherwise, it sounds like you're a guy who owns Michael Bush and is looking for more votes of confidence that you didn't reach too far for him.
In all seriousness, I'd appreciate where you came up with the 'timeshare' claim.
Thanks.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
I'll say it's good. Didn't even know it was possible.Things are different in Chicago this year. Since Forte became the lead back in 2008, the Bears have finished 26th, 23rd, 30th, and 24th in total offense. That's dreadful. Their WR corp has been amongst the worst in the league for years as well. They haven't had a WR top 1000 yards since 2002. Now they have perennial target hog, and 1000 yard receiver in Marshall in town. They've also added Jeffery to the mix. My guess is Chicago is going to throw A LOT more to their WRs this year.
Basically, Forte has been consistently good because he's been their only decent offensive weapon. That's just not the case anymore, and I think those that are expecting "safe" or the same old, same old, will be very disappointed ths year. I'm thinking 1400/4 this year. A RB2 for the price of a RB1.
geoff8695
Footballguy
By the way the only season in which Forte had over 300 rushes (2008 his rookie season), the Bears ranked 16th in the NFL in average number of plays per game.
Over the last three seasons when Forte has been on pace for 250 rushes/season, they've finished 30th, 26th, and 25th in the NFL in average number of plays per game.
Now that their defense is aging, injured, and they play in a division with two of the most prolific NFL offenses, and now that they have added Bush, Marshall, and Jeffery at the skill positions, does anyone really think they will finish in the bottom 25% of the league again in # of offensive plays at the end of the season?
Keep in mind that when they finished near the middle of the pack, Forte was a 300 carry back.
So unless you think Forte's talent is a mirage, or you think Bush is decisively more talented, then why on earth would you expect Forte to suddenly regress?
Over the last three seasons when Forte has been on pace for 250 rushes/season, they've finished 30th, 26th, and 25th in the NFL in average number of plays per game.
Now that their defense is aging, injured, and they play in a division with two of the most prolific NFL offenses, and now that they have added Bush, Marshall, and Jeffery at the skill positions, does anyone really think they will finish in the bottom 25% of the league again in # of offensive plays at the end of the season?
Keep in mind that when they finished near the middle of the pack, Forte was a 300 carry back.
So unless you think Forte's talent is a mirage, or you think Bush is decisively more talented, then why on earth would you expect Forte to suddenly regress?
geoff8695
Footballguy
I'm not predicting a top 5 finish for Forte in non-PPR leagues. However, the improved offense and supporting cast helps Forte's game; it doesn't detract from it. He's not a 400 carry 15TD RB about to lose out on a piece of the pie. He's a catalyst and a dynamic open field RB who averages around 300 total touches per season in offenses that ranked among the worst in the league in terms of number of offensive plays per/game or season. And he has been the focus of opposing defenses for his entire career thus far. Now that the WR corps is of legitimate NFL caliber, it should actually make him more dangerous and prevent defenses from scheming entirely against Forte as the Bears sole offensive weapon.When it comes to receiving targets, if the Bears had a Wes Welker or Lance Moore type or an elite TE, then I would be more concerned about Forte losing targets in the short passing game, but they don't.Forte IS the offense's check down, short receiving target, to the tune of about 70 times per season, and that was with defenses keying on him and less total offensive plays than 3/4 of the rest of the league. Yet now that they have upgraded the WRs, he continues to be their best option in the short passing game, and will profit from the Bears new and improved WR corp. As long as Forte remains healthy, he remains one of the safest options out there, dont' overthink this...
Bush was brought in to work inside the 10 yard line. Forte is one of the safest RBs out there. He's good for 1,500+ total yards.Yep I think you could make the case better for him improving his fantasy stock because of the better offense.His streak of low rush TDs seems fluky. This might be the year he breaks the trend.
geoff8695
Footballguy
I'm not going to tell you that it can't happen, but he's never been a threat at the goal line and Bush is going to be the goal line back.That's ok though since Forte's TD totals will continue to be dependent upon longer distance TDs and receiving TDs. Therefore, while TDs are unpredictable and could increase in a more efficient offense and with more total plays overall, I really wouldn't expect an increase from his typical 4-8 TDs.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
He didn't "blow out his knee" last year either. It was an MCL sprain. The guy played in the Pro Bowl last season, so its hard to imagine his injury will have any linger effects into this season.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
You make some valid points, and its certainly possible it could play out the way you have listed it here. The rising tide may indeed lift all waters. I will say though that it's generally better to be the center of the teams offense, rather than having quality competition for touches.
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
Mike Martz had a lot to do with that...
Wadsworth
Footballguy
The main reason I have Forte downgraded is the fact that we really have no idea what kind of an offense Tice is going run.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Forte is awful in short yardage, Bush will have that role, the goal line, 4th quarter bleed the clock, and whenever Forte needs a breather. Forte was on pace for > 300 touches last year, same as 2 of his first 3 years in the league. A role he has been very effective in. 300-320 touches, 50-60 rec, 1400-1700 yds, 6-10 TD's. Should be top 5 #'s.
sharptongued1
Footballguy
Last year the Panthers gave DeAngelo Williams 5/43 with $21 million guaranteed to split carries with Jonathan Stewart.'Billy Bats said:
Stewart also got 18 mill more gauranteed than BushLast year the Panthers gave DeAngelo Williams 5/43 with $21 million guaranteed to split carries with Jonathan Stewart.'Billy Bats said:
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
Clifford
Footballguy
This. Bush is the GL specialist, but it's not like he's going to be in on 3rd downs like some other RBs. Tice is kind of a doofus in case you haven't noticed. No way both backs see 1k yards. Forte, if healthy, should still see around 25 touches per game.
geoff8695
Footballguy
No he didn't Forte actually had fewer carries and fewer targets/receptions in the two seasons under Martz than he did in the two seasons prior to Martz's arrival.
Wadsworth
Footballguy
3.9 and 3.6 per carry versus 4.5 and 4.97.6 and 8.3 per catch versus 10.7 and 9.4
I would say Martz helped.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
I think Forte is one of the safest, if not the safest RB after the big 3 are gone, but Bush is going to get his share. As others have said, I see CHI passing much more with Marshall and Jeffery in town now. If Forte stays healthy, he's pretty much a lock for 1200+ total yards and 5 TDs, but I think Bush really limits his ceiling.
Overall, I think a lot of people are overlooking Bush in this thread, and in general. I think Bush is a very safe bet for 800 total yards and has a great chance to outscore Forte in the TD department.
Overall, I think a lot of people are overlooking Bush in this thread, and in general. I think Bush is a very safe bet for 800 total yards and has a great chance to outscore Forte in the TD department.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
geoff8695
Footballguy
Well in the two seasons that he had his lowest efficiency numbers he was a rookie, a 2nd yr RB playing hurt, and the ONLY real offensive weapon the Bears possessed. I hate using injuries as an excuse, but in 2009 Forte quietly played through injuries which caused his averages to decline to career lows which you quoted above.However, you're forgetting that someone else arrived on the scene in 2010 along with Martz...
I would argue that the arrival of Cutler was FAR more beneficial to Forte's efficiency than Martz. And unlike Martz, Cutler is back and in the prime of his career as an NFL QB. In addition to Cutler, the Bears offense has added skill position players who are superior to anything Forte has been around in his first four seasons.
So that being said, do you really believe the additions of Bush, Marshall, and Jeffery are going to cause Forte to become less efficient?
We already know that Forte doesn't need 400 touches or goal line carries to maintain or even exceed his past production, so sharing the wealth isn't really a problem.
If I may be allowed to assume that better overall talent on the offensive side of the ball won't cause Forte to regress or become a less efficient runner/receiver, then the only way you can possibly downgrade his value for 2012 would be to predict injury or reduce his already modest number of touches.
I'm sorry but I just can't envision a healthy Forte getting fewer than 250 rushes and 50 catches like clockwork once again in 2012. To be honest though, I actually expect a slight uptick, because I expect a bigger pie in the form of a revitalized offense that won't finish in the bottom 1/4 of the NFL in number of offensive plays (as they have for the last 3 seasons). But even if you want to project the last three seasons number of offensive plays we already know that Forte's been successful with and without Cutler, with and without Martz, and he's done it when he was the ONLY thing defenses had to game plan against.
He's about the safest bet going this year to maintain his career production. People are really over-thinking Matt Forte this year IMO.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Agree. It is OK for Forte to split carries with Bush. I doubt the split is 50-50. Bush is a solid RB but he is not Forte. What Bush takes away, an improved offense will give back to Forte as well. The Bears O should be on the field longer. Forte should be less banged up and fresher at the end of a long season. I am not afraid of Forte at the #6 spot at all.Well in the two seasons that he had his lowest efficiency numbers he was a rookie, a 2nd yr RB playing hurt, and the ONLY real offensive weapon the Bears possessed. I hate using injuries as an excuse, but in 2009 Forte quietly played through injuries which caused his averages to decline to career lows which you quoted above.However, you're forgetting that someone else arrived on the scene in 2010 along with Martz...
I would argue that the arrival of Cutler was FAR more beneficial to Forte's efficiency than Martz. And unlike Martz, Cutler is back and in the prime of his career as an NFL QB. In addition to Cutler, the Bears offense has added skill position players who are superior to anything Forte has been around in his first four seasons.
So that being said, do you really believe the additions of Bush, Marshall, and Jeffery are going to cause Forte to become less efficient?
We already know that Forte doesn't need 400 touches or goal line carries to maintain or even exceed his past production, so sharing the wealth isn't really a problem.
If I may be allowed to assume that better overall talent on the offensive side of the ball won't cause Forte to regress or become a less efficient runner/receiver, then the only way you can possibly downgrade his value for 2012 would be to predict injury or reduce his already modest number of touches.
I'm sorry but I just can't envision a healthy Forte getting fewer than 250 rushes and 50 catches like clockwork once again in 2012. To be honest though, I actually expect a slight uptick, because I expect a bigger pie in the form of a revitalized offense that won't finish in the bottom 1/4 of the NFL in number of offensive plays (as they have for the last 3 seasons). But even if you want to project the last three seasons number of offensive plays we already know that Forte's been successful with and without Cutler, with and without Martz, and he's done it when he was the ONLY thing defenses had to game plan against.
He's about the safest bet going this year to maintain his career production. People are really over-thinking Matt Forte this year IMO.
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