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Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions

Player Page Link: Matthew Stafford Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
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Projection: Calvin Johnson misses more than 4 weeks of the season from the Madden Curse and the passing game gets virtually shut down during that time during lack of weapons.

Stafford goes 400-600 for 4100 yards 30 tds and 15 ints, not much rushing

 
Hutch's 2012 Prediction of the Detroit Lions QB John Matthew Stafford

16 Games Played

16 Games Started

398 Completions

630 Attempts

63.2 Completion %

4,763 Passing Yards

39 TD's

15 INT's

14 Rushes

50 Rushing Yards

0 Rushing TD's

 
Hutch, like your format.

Young, elite talent in a high powered offense with a questionable running game a defense who likely has not yet reached his full potential... What's not to like??? (disclaimer: I'm an owner) :banned:

16 Games Played

16 Games Started

360 Completions

600 Attempts

60.0 Completion %

4,500 Passing Yards

35 TD's

15 INT's

15 Rushes

50 Rushing Yards

0 Rushing TD's

 
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Stafford is a stud. Has the best WR on the planet in Calvin who is literally uncoverable near the goalline. Hopefully Best can stay healthy and give DET even more of a threat receiving out of the backfield. Schedule looks pretty favorable as well.

4500 yds passing, 36 TD, 15 Int

75 yds rushing, 1 TD

 
340 Completions

525 Attempts

65.0 Completion %

4,500 Passing Yards

37 TD's

17 INT's

Last year was a ton of passing attempts I don't see that repeating. Adding in a full offseason for LeShoure and Kevin Smith will hopefully provide more of a running game.

However Stafford still has good weapons in Calvin, Titus Young, Broyles, Burleson, Pettigrew, and RBs out of the backfield. Having 6 games against below average secondaries in the division helps as well.

 
I'm very surprised to see that nobody has him over the 5k mark again. The NFL has evolved into a past first world. The Lions have not improved their RB situation and have added another very talented young WR in Broyles. I say he preforms better than last year.

 
I'm very surprised to see that nobody has him over the 5k mark again. The NFL has evolved into a past first world. The Lions have not improved their RB situation and have added another very talented young WR in Broyles. I say he preforms better than last year.
My expectation is that he'll be right around 5000 again. It's likely that he'll pass less but he should be more effective. I have him at about 390/600 for 4800/35/15.
 
Having healthy RBs and a more efficient running game should cut down on his attempts but Stafford should be smooth sailing ahead.

387 Completions

615 Attempts

4736 Yards

35 TD

16 INT

 
663 pass attempts. 3rd most pass attempts ever attempted in a season.

5038 passing yards. 5th most passing yards ever in a season.

390 rushing yards. This is what Jahvid Best totaled in 2011 and what led the Lions in rushing. Their 356 rush attempts ranked second to last in the NFL, only ahead of Tampa Bay's 346.

In their playoff loss to the Saints where they played valiantly...IMO, the major difference in that game (besides the botched call by the ref on the Brees fumble) was the fact that the Saints were able to run the ball. The Lions really didn't make much of an attempt.

In their losses, the Lions averaged 48.8 pass attempts/game. In their wins? 37.

Bottomline: Stafford was a much more efficient QB in the Lions victories than he was in their losses (8.19 YPA in wins; 6.76 in losses). So IMO, improvement from Stafford in terms of his overall game won't come in the form of bigger number. It will come from doing more with less. And I think for that to happen, the Lions have to be a more balanced offense. No doubt the combination of the Stafford/Megatron represents the best combination of QB/WR physical tools in the NFL. But one of two things have to happen if the Lions hope to be better than GB.

1) Balance can either come from a better presence running the ball OR

2) Balance can come from Stafford being a more efficient QB when going to targets other than Megatron

...either way though, I see a significant drop in production for Stafford, which is not fatal by any stretch in terms of his fantasy relavance. However, if the first tier of QB's includes Rodgers, Brees, Brady (and maybe Cam)...Stafford I think will be closer in production in 2012 to the next group of QB's which would include Romo/Rivers/Eli. As such his QB5 (3.02 ADP) is a bit rich for me.

Prediction: 365 Completions, 581 Pass Attempts, 4589 Passing Yards, 34 TD's, 14 INT's.

 
Am I the only one thinking he could improve on his numbers?

Stafford compiled his stats with a plethora of attempts, but the Lions showed just how explosive and efficient this offense can really be during their late season and playoff runs. This team is clearly built to throw the football, and they've done nothing in the offseason to dissuade me from thinking that's exactly what they're going to do.

They will rival the Packers, Patriots, and Saints for the title of "best offense in football."

630 attempts. 425 completions. 5,070 yards. 42 TDs. 15 INTs.

 
I'm very surprised to see that nobody has him over the 5k mark again. The NFL has evolved into a past first world. The Lions have not improved their RB situation and have added another very talented young WR in Broyles. I say he preforms better than last year.
Oh. :goodposting:
 
I'm very surprised to see that nobody has him over the 5k mark again. The NFL has evolved into a past first world. The Lions have not improved their RB situation and have added another very talented young WR in Broyles. I say he preforms better than last year.
Really? Wasn't Keiland Williams starting for them at one point? I'm pretty sure the RB situation is better this year just by the simple fact that they have healthy players. If they all get hurt again then yes, they might be right back in the same boat they were last year, but I think most people are not projecting that scenario.I try to provide a little more info than this usually, but at a price of QB4, I've got zero interest in Stafford this year. If he plays 16 games, I suspect his passing TD total is much closer to 30 than 40.

 
4900 yards/ 39 tds/15 int. Healthy Best means receiving yards. Kevin Smith gets alot of recieving yards. IDK what to expect from Leshoure but a healthy running game should not cut down much on the yards and tds in my opinion

 
I'm very surprised to see that nobody has him over the 5k mark again. The NFL has evolved into a past first world. The Lions have not improved their RB situation and have added another very talented young WR in Broyles. I say he preforms better than last year.
Really? Wasn't Keiland Williams starting for them at one point? I'm pretty sure the RB situation is better this year just by the simple fact that they have healthy players. If they all get hurt again then yes, they might be right back in the same boat they were last year, but I think most people are not projecting that scenario.I try to provide a little more info than this usually, but at a price of QB4, I've got zero interest in Stafford this year. If he plays 16 games, I suspect his passing TD total is much closer to 30 than 40.
Why would it be closer to 30 with megatron and his recieving corps. I don't expect the running backs to steal many TD's on the ground, rather on screens etc.
 
I don't see a 5000 yd season as it took an incredible run over the last three games (I think he had like 1200 yds) culminating in an obscene 500+ vs. GB to get there. I don't think Schwarz and company want the team to be so reliant on Stafford and Megatron, though relying on Best/Leshoure/Smith seems an iffy proposition given that all three have major ???s. Their D should improve as it did well at times and is young enough to get better without major additions, which should mean expanded reliance on ball control. The overall weak pass Ds in their division will offset a bit of this, but ultimately, 5000 yds is just too much to expect. Drafting him at QB4 feels like drafting him at the high end of his range rather than getting someone like Rivers, who also has a high upside, several rounds later feels like a much better move. (In fact, I think Rivers outproduces Stafford anyway).

Projection:

4400 yds, 32 TDs, 14 INTs with a higher injury risk than most QBs (both in terms to himself and the dropoff if Calvin gets dinged).

 
Projection: Calvin Johnson misses more than 4 weeks of the season from the Madden Curse and the passing game gets virtually shut down during that time during lack of weapons. Stafford goes 400-600 for 4100 yards 30 tds and 15 ints, not much rushing
The Madden curse doesn't apply if you aren't human, and Calvin isn't. What lack of weapons? Pettigrew is very good tight end, Young is up and coming, I think Broyles can be a monster out of the slot, and IF best is healthy he is explosive catching the ball out of the backfield.
 
Projection:4400 yds, 32 TDs, 14 INTs with a higher injury risk than most QBs (both in terms to himself and the dropoff if Calvin gets dinged).
:goodposting: Thats about where I have Stafford, maybe a couple more TDs. The point about Megatron is a good one. Of the top QBs Stafford is quite dependent on his #1 WR, who has gotten banged up in the past.
 
as posted elsewhere on this site, John Clayton has a 150 age theory regarding O-lines ( if cumulative age is 150 years or more, it's generally considered a bad thing)..Detroit's O-line rings in at 152 years old, including a 33-yr old center, and a 30 year old RG...They allowed Stafford to be sacked 36 times last season..it's remarkable that the seemingly fragile Stafford even survived a full 16 games..it's obvious the Lions struggled to run the football in 2011, leading to a rise in passing attempts..

just as Gronk's record-setting season, Stafford's incredible 2011 stats must come back down to earth at some point..if the Lions continue to force him to throw 663 times like last year, you're just exposing the QB to more hits and the potential for injury..

under the best of circumstances, I just don't see a return of the 5k season..despite not having a true #1 RB, the Lions are more apt to take a run-first approach this season than to let Stafford drop back 663 times again.

With that, I'll put Stafford at:

359/590, 61%, 6.8 ypa, 4012 yards, 32 TD, 18 int.

the Lions try to run, run,run in 2012

 
I don't see a 5000 yd season as it took an incredible run over the last three games (I think he had like 1200 yds) culminating in an obscene 500+ vs. GB to get there. I don't think Schwarz and company want the team to be so reliant on Stafford and Megatron, though relying on Best/Leshoure/Smith seems an iffy proposition given that all three have major ???s. Their D should improve as it did well at times and is young enough to get better without major additions, which should mean expanded reliance on ball control. The overall weak pass Ds in their division will offset a bit of this, but ultimately, 5000 yds is just too much to expect. Drafting him at QB4 feels like drafting him at the high end of his range rather than getting someone like Rivers, who also has a high upside, several rounds later feels like a much better move. (In fact, I think Rivers outproduces Stafford anyway). Projection:4400 yds, 32 TDs, 14 INTs with a higher injury risk than most QBs (both in terms to himself and the dropoff if Calvin gets dinged).
Isn't Rivers' #1 target considered "injury prone" as well? I like Rivers too, but he doesn't have nearly the yardage or TD potential of Stafford. Mathews is going to be a major part of that SD offense.
 
as posted elsewhere on this site, John Clayton has a 150 age theory regarding O-lines ( if cumulative age is 150 years or more, it's generally considered a bad thing)..Detroit's O-line rings in at 152 years old, including a 33-yr old center, and a 30 year old RG...They allowed Stafford to be sacked 36 times last season..it's remarkable that the seemingly fragile Stafford even survived a full 16 games..it's obvious the Lions struggled to run the football in 2011, leading to a rise in passing attempts..

just as Gronk's record-setting season, Stafford's incredible 2011 stats must come back down to earth at some point..if the Lions continue to force him to throw 663 times like last year, you're just exposing the QB to more hits and the potential for injury..

under the best of circumstances, I just don't see a return of the 5k season..despite not having a true #1 RB, the Lions are more apt to take a run-first approach this season than to let Stafford drop back 663 times again.

With that, I'll put Stafford at:

359/590, 61%, 6.8 ypa, 4012 yards, 32 TD, 18 int.

the Lions try to run, run,run in 2012
I doubt the Lion's change their offensive philosophy without adding a quality running back. They picked up another receiver in the 2nd round and will be relying on the pass again much like Green Bay. They more have more rushing attempts if some of the guys can stay healthy and/or they build more early leads but the offense will remain pass heavy. To say they are going to try to change to a running team seems a little silly.
 
despite not having a true #1 RB, the Lions are more apt to take a run-first approach this season than to let Stafford drop back 663 times again.

With that, I'll put Stafford at:

359/590, 61%, 6.8 ypa, 4012 yards, 32 TD, 18 int.

the Lions try to run, run,run in 2012
590 attempts wouldn't really be a run first approach, and 6.8 per attempt is a pretty measley number. Calvin just got a megahuge contract. Stafford was the first overall pick and has a huge contract. This team plays 10 games indoors this season. They still have a suspect secondary.

I don't see the Lions run, run, running with Best's concussion past. Leshoure is coming off injury and/or could possibly be suspended. Kevin Smith is an average player. Any offensive coordinator giving the ball to these players in spite of the Lions weapons in the passing game should be fired.

 
340 Completions 525 Attempts65.0 Completion %4,500 Passing Yards 37 TD's 17 INT's Last year was a ton of passing attempts I don't see that repeating. Adding in a full offseason for LeShoure and Kevin Smith will hopefully provide more of a running game.However Stafford still has good weapons in Calvin, Titus Young, Broyles, Burleson, Pettigrew, and RBs out of the backfield. Having 6 games against below average secondaries in the division helps as well.
Why not they dont have a defense at all. Almost all the games are going to be shootouts
 

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