Matthew Stafford (1 Viewer)

[Weiner Dog]

Give or take, it appears as if Stafford is being valued at approx #15 for dynasty QB's. If I were to cherry-pick, more people seem to rank Stafford in the #10-#15 range as opposed to the #16-#20 range for dynasty QB's. I read people mention the "it" factor when discussing Stafford's future. His arm strength is also compared to many of the gunslingers (ie. Favre, Cutler, etc) of the NFL. However, when I compare Stafford's rookie season to the rookie/first season's of the other Top-15 QB's, it appears as if Stafford falls severely short.

Even if I ignore Stafford's 2-10 record as a starter, it's hard to ignore his stats compared to the other top (...and medium) shelf QB's in fantasy football. If you review the stats below, the following comparison's jump off the page:

** Stafford easily has the worst TD/INT ratio of the group. In fact, only Stafford (13/20) and Peyton Manning (26/28) had a negative TD/INT ratio in their rookie/first season.

** Stafford had the second worse Yards/Attempt at 6.0, eclipsing only McNabb's 5.9.

** Stafford had the second worse Completion % at 53.0%, outperforming only Eli Manning's 52.8%. Only 3 (E Manning, P Manning and McNabb) of the 15 other QB's listed had a Completion % lower than 60.0% in their rookie season.

** Most alarming, at 61.0, Stafford easily had the worst QB Rating of the group. For comparative purposes, P Manning had the second worse QB Rating with a 71.2 in his rookie season...10 points higher than Stafford. 10 of the other 15 QB's had a QB Rating of 80.0+ and 4 of the 15 had a QB Rating of 90.0+.

If there's any saving grace, it's Stafford's Yards/Game. At 226 yards/game last year, Stafford outperformed all but 3 QB's (Rogers, P Manning, E Manning). The Lions will likely need to continuing throwing the ball to stay in games and, with the addition of Burleson, Scheffler, Best and a healthy Pettigrew, Stafford could certainly improve on this 226 yards/game.

For the people who rank Stafford as a Top-15 dynasty QB, do you believe the rookie/first season has little influence on the long-term success of a QB? Or, are you simply giving Stafford a mulligan in his first season? Disclaimer: I have Stafford in one of my four leagues. I'm wondering if the shark move is to get Top-15 value for a player who may very well never be a Top-15 QB.

Stafford

TD: 13

INT: 20

Yards/Game: 226

Yards/Attempt: 6.0

Comp Pct: 53.0%

Rating: 61.0

P Manning

TD: 26

INT: 28

Yards/Game: 233

Yards/Attempt: 6.5

Comp Pct: 56.7%

Rating: 71.2

Brees

TD: 17

INT: 16

Yards/Game: 205

Yards/Attempt: 6.2

Comp Pct: 60.8%

Rating: 76.9

Brady

TD: 18

INT: 12

Yards/Game: 189

Yards/Attempt: 6.9

Comp Pct: 63.9%

Rating: 86.5

A Rogers

TD: 28

INT: 13

Yards/Game: 252

Yards/Attempt: 7.5

Comp Pct: 63.6%

Rating: 93.8

Romo

TD: 19

INT: 13

Yards/Game: 181

Yards/Attempt: 8.6

Comp Pct: 65.3%

Rating: 95.1

Rivers

TD: 22

INT: 9

Yards/Game: 211

Yards/Attempt: 7.4

Comp Pct: 61.7%

Rating: 92.0

Schaub

TD: 9

INT: 9

Yards/Game: 203

Yards/Attempt: 7.8

Comp Pct: 66.4%

Rating: 87.2

Roethlisberger

TD: 17

INT: 11

Yards/Game: 198

Yards/Attempt: 8.9

Comp Pct: 66.4%

Rating: 98.1

Favre

TD: 18

INT: 13

Yards/Game: 215

Yards/Attempt: 6.9

Comp Pct: 64.1%

Rating: 85.3

McNabb

TD: 21

INT: 13

Yards/Game: 210

Yards/Attempt: 5.9

Comp Pct: 58.0%

Rating: 77.8

Eli Manning

TD: 24

INT: 17

Yards/Game: 235

Yards/Attempt: 6.8

Comp Pct: 52.8%

Rating: 75.9

Flacco

TD: 14

INT: 12

Yards/Game: 185

Yards/Attempt: 6.9

Comp Pct: 60.0%

Rating: 80.3

Palmer

TD: 18

INT: 18

Yards/Game: 222

Yards/Attempt: 6.7

Comp Pct: 60.9%

Rating: 77.3

M Ryan

TD: 16

INT: 11

Yards/Game: 215

Yards/Attempt: 7.9

Comp Pct: 61.1%

Rating: 87.7

Cutler

TD: 20

INT: 14

Yards/Game: 218

Yards/Attempt: 7.5

Comp Pct: 63.6%

Rating: 88.1

 

[rizzler]

o-line.

offensive weapons.

just 2 of the MAJOR reasons he had a "bad" rookie campaign.... this guy should turn out to be a decent/very good QB in the league... look for it to start this year with an improved o-line, and plenty more weapons to throw at... and whats that!? A RUNNING GAME.

jahvid best should do well this season...

id take stafford in a heartbeat, Detroit is only improving.

 

[ddarroch4]

Give or take, it appears as if Stafford is being valued at approx #15 for dynasty QB's. If I were to cherry-pick, more people seem to rank Stafford in the #10-#15 range as opposed to the #16-#20 range for dynasty QB's. I read people mention the "it" factor when discussing Stafford's future. His arm strength is also compared to many of the gunslingers (ie. Favre, Cutler, etc) of the NFL. However, when I compare Stafford's rookie season to the rookie/first season's of the other Top-15 QB's, it appears as if Stafford falls severely short.Even if I ignore Stafford's 2-10 record as a starter, it's hard to ignore his stats compared to the other top (...and medium) shelf QB's in fantasy football. If you review the stats below, the following comparison's jump off the page:** Stafford easily has the worst TD/INT ratio of the group. In fact, only Stafford (13/20) and Peyton Manning (26/28) had a negative TD/INT ratio in their rookie/first season.** Stafford had the second worse Yards/Attempt at 6.0, eclipsing only McNabb's 5.9.** Stafford had the second worse Completion % at 53.0%, outperforming only Eli Manning's 52.8%. Only 3 (E Manning, P Manning and McNabb) of the 15 other QB's listed had a Completion % lower than 60.0% in their rookie season.** Most alarming, at 61.0, Stafford easily had the worst QB Rating of the group. For comparative purposes, P Manning had the second worse QB Rating with a 71.2 in his rookie season...10 points higher than Stafford. 10 of the other 15 QB's had a QB Rating of 80.0+ and 4 of the 15 had a QB Rating of 90.0+.If there's any saving grace, it's Stafford's Yards/Game. At 226 yards/game last year, Stafford outperformed all but 3 QB's (Rogers, P Manning, E Manning). The Lions will likely need to continuing throwing the ball to stay in games and, with the addition of Burleson, Scheffler, Best and a healthy Pettigrew, Stafford could certainly improve on this 226 yards/game.For the people who rank Stafford as a Top-15 dynasty QB, do you believe the rookie/first season has little influence on the long-term success of a QB? Or, are you simply giving Stafford a mulligan in his first season? Disclaimer: I have Stafford in one of my four leagues. I'm wondering if the shark move is to get Top-15 value for a player who may very well never be a Top-15 QB.StaffordTD: 13INT: 20Yards/Game: 226Yards/Attempt: 6.0Comp Pct: 53.0%Rating: 61.0P ManningTD: 26INT: 28Yards/Game: 233Yards/Attempt: 6.5Comp Pct: 56.7%Rating: 71.2BreesTD: 17INT: 16Yards/Game: 205Yards/Attempt: 6.2Comp Pct: 60.8%Rating: 76.9BradyTD: 18INT: 12Yards/Game: 189Yards/Attempt: 6.9Comp Pct: 63.9%Rating: 86.5A RogersTD: 28INT: 13Yards/Game: 252Yards/Attempt: 7.5Comp Pct: 63.6%Rating: 93.8RomoTD: 19INT: 13Yards/Game: 181Yards/Attempt: 8.6Comp Pct: 65.3%Rating: 95.1RiversTD: 22INT: 9Yards/Game: 211Yards/Attempt: 7.4Comp Pct: 61.7%Rating: 92.0SchaubTD: 9INT: 9Yards/Game: 203Yards/Attempt: 7.8Comp Pct: 66.4%Rating: 87.2RoethlisbergerTD: 17INT: 11Yards/Game: 198Yards/Attempt: 8.9Comp Pct: 66.4%Rating: 98.1FavreTD: 18INT: 13Yards/Game: 215Yards/Attempt: 6.9Comp Pct: 64.1%Rating: 85.3McNabbTD: 21INT: 13Yards/Game: 210Yards/Attempt: 5.9Comp Pct: 58.0%Rating: 77.8Eli ManningTD: 24INT: 17Yards/Game: 235Yards/Attempt: 6.8Comp Pct: 52.8%Rating: 75.9FlaccoTD: 14INT: 12Yards/Game: 185Yards/Attempt: 6.9Comp Pct: 60.0%Rating: 80.3PalmerTD: 18INT: 18Yards/Game: 222Yards/Attempt: 6.7Comp Pct: 60.9%Rating: 77.3M RyanTD: 16INT: 11Yards/Game: 215Yards/Attempt: 7.9Comp Pct: 61.1%Rating: 87.7CutlerTD: 20INT: 14Yards/Game: 218Yards/Attempt: 7.5Comp Pct: 63.6%Rating: 88.1

I think you are confusing his future by his rookie season. A rookie season is just to take your lumps and learn as much as you can. What if Stafford just sat and didn't play? Where are Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers rookie stats in this equation? Stafford looks like he is going to be a top 10 QB if you look past just his rookie stats.

 

[prymetyme25]

There's a big difference from a rookie and a first year starter.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Stafford had one weapon (Calvin Johnson) last year and he was doubled and even triple teamed at times. Pettigrew had a handful of decent games as well, but the other WRs were Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt and they were brutal last year. It's hard to complete passes when nobody can get open. The RBs were bad and teams could drop back in zones because they knew the RBs couldn't do anything. I can't imagine any rookie putting up anything better than Stafford did with what he had to work with.

 

[Weiner Dog]

There's a big difference from a rookie and a first year starter.

I agree 110%.That's why I included QB's that covered both of these bases. Stafford underperformed all of them.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Stafford had one weapon (Calvin Johnson) last year and he was doubled and even triple teamed at times. Pettigrew had a handful of decent games as well, but the other WRs were Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt and they were brutal last year. It's hard to complete passes when nobody can get open. The RBs were bad and teams could drop back in zones because they knew the RBs couldn't do anything. I can't imagine any rookie putting up anything better than Stafford did with what he had to work with.

So...do you think Stafford walked into an offense that was worse than all of the 15 other QB's listed?

 

[PhantomJB]

Give or take, it appears as if Stafford is being valued at approx #15 for dynasty QB's. If I were to cherry-pick, more people seem to rank Stafford in the #10-#15 range as opposed to the #16-#20 range for dynasty QB's. I read people mention the "it" factor when discussing Stafford's future. His arm strength is also compared to many of the gunslingers (ie. Favre, Cutler, etc) of the NFL. However, when I compare Stafford's rookie season to the rookie/first season's of the other Top-15 QB's, it appears as if Stafford falls severely short.

Even if I ignore Stafford's 2-10 record as a starter, it's hard to ignore his stats compared to the other top (...and medium) shelf QB's in fantasy football. If you review the stats below, the following comparison's jump off the page:

** Stafford easily has the worst TD/INT ratio of the group. In fact, only Stafford (13/20) and Peyton Manning (26/28) had a negative TD/INT ratio in their rookie/first season.

** Stafford had the second worse Yards/Attempt at 6.0, eclipsing only McNabb's 5.9.

** Stafford had the second worse Completion % at 53.0%, outperforming only Eli Manning's 52.8%. Only 3 (E Manning, P Manning and McNabb) of the 15 other QB's listed had a Completion % lower than 60.0% in their rookie season.

** Most alarming, at 61.0, Stafford easily had the worst QB Rating of the group. For comparative purposes, P Manning had the second worse QB Rating with a 71.2 in his rookie season...10 points higher than Stafford. 10 of the other 15 QB's had a QB Rating of 80.0+ and 4 of the 15 had a QB Rating of 90.0+.

If there's any saving grace, it's Stafford's Yards/Game. At 226 yards/game last year, Stafford outperformed all but 3 QB's (Rogers, P Manning, E Manning). The Lions will likely need to continuing throwing the ball to stay in games and, with the addition of Burleson, Scheffler, Best and a healthy Pettigrew, Stafford could certainly improve on this 226 yards/game.

For the people who rank Stafford as a Top-15 dynasty QB, do you believe the rookie/first season has little influence on the long-term success of a QB? Or, are you simply giving Stafford a mulligan in his first season? Disclaimer: I have Stafford in one of my four leagues. I'm wondering if the shark move is to get Top-15 value for a player who may very well never be a Top-15 QB.

Stafford

TD: 13

INT: 20

Yards/Game: 226

Yards/Attempt: 6.0

Comp Pct: 53.0%

Rating: 61.0

P Manning

TD: 26

INT: 28

Yards/Game: 233

Yards/Attempt: 6.5

Comp Pct: 56.7%

Rating: 71.2

Brees

TD: 17

INT: 16

Yards/Game: 205

Yards/Attempt: 6.2

Comp Pct: 60.8%

Rating: 76.9

Brady

TD: 18

INT: 12

Yards/Game: 189

Yards/Attempt: 6.9

Comp Pct: 63.9%

Rating: 86.5

A Rogers

TD: 28

INT: 13

Yards/Game: 252

Yards/Attempt: 7.5

Comp Pct: 63.6%

Rating: 93.8

Romo

TD: 19

INT: 13

Yards/Game: 181

Yards/Attempt: 8.6

Comp Pct: 65.3%

Rating: 95.1

Rivers

TD: 22

INT: 9

Yards/Game: 211

Yards/Attempt: 7.4

Comp Pct: 61.7%

Rating: 92.0

Schaub

TD: 9

INT: 9

Yards/Game: 203

Yards/Attempt: 7.8

Comp Pct: 66.4%

Rating: 87.2

Roethlisberger

TD: 17

INT: 11

Yards/Game: 198

Yards/Attempt: 8.9

Comp Pct: 66.4%

Rating: 98.1

Favre

TD: 18

INT: 13

Yards/Game: 215

Yards/Attempt: 6.9

Comp Pct: 64.1%

Rating: 85.3

McNabb

TD: 21

INT: 13

Yards/Game: 210

Yards/Attempt: 5.9

Comp Pct: 58.0%

Rating: 77.8

Eli Manning

TD: 24

INT: 17

Yards/Game: 235

Yards/Attempt: 6.8

Comp Pct: 52.8%

Rating: 75.9

Flacco

TD: 14

INT: 12

Yards/Game: 185

Yards/Attempt: 6.9

Comp Pct: 60.0%

Rating: 80.3

Palmer

TD: 18

INT: 18

Yards/Game: 222

Yards/Attempt: 6.7

Comp Pct: 60.9%

Rating: 77.3

M Ryan

TD: 16

INT: 11

Yards/Game: 215

Yards/Attempt: 7.9

Comp Pct: 61.1%

Rating: 87.7

Cutler

TD: 20

INT: 14

Yards/Game: 218

Yards/Attempt: 7.5

Comp Pct: 63.6%

Rating: 88.1

I think you are confusing his future by his rookie season. A rookie season is just to take your lumps and learn as much as you can. What if Stafford just sat and didn't play? Where are Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers rookie stats in this equation? Stafford looks like he is going to be a top 10 QB if you look past just his rookie stats.

Agreed. Look at Aikman's rookie year in a similar rebuilding situation...TD: 9

INT: 18

Y/G: 159

Comp %: 52.9

Rating: 55.7

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Stafford had one weapon (Calvin Johnson) last year and he was doubled and even triple teamed at times. Pettigrew had a handful of decent games as well, but the other WRs were Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt and they were brutal last year. It's hard to complete passes when nobody can get open. The RBs were bad and teams could drop back in zones because they knew the RBs couldn't do anything. I can't imagine any rookie putting up anything better than Stafford did with what he had to work with.

So...do you think Stafford walked into an offense that was worse than all of the 15 other QB's listed?

Far worse than almost all of them. Stafford had one weapon and he was doubled and even tripled all year, basically leaving him with nobody to throw to on many occasions.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Give or take, it appears as if Stafford is being valued at approx #15 for dynasty QB's. If I were to cherry-pick, more people seem to rank Stafford in the #10-#15 range as opposed to the #16-#20 range for dynasty QB's. I read people mention the "it" factor when discussing Stafford's future. His arm strength is also compared to many of the gunslingers (ie. Favre, Cutler, etc) of the NFL. However, when I compare Stafford's rookie season to the rookie/first season's of the other Top-15 QB's, it appears as if Stafford falls severely short.

Even if I ignore Stafford's 2-10 record as a starter, it's hard to ignore his stats compared to the other top (...and medium) shelf QB's in fantasy football. If you review the stats below, the following comparison's jump off the page:

** Stafford easily has the worst TD/INT ratio of the group. In fact, only Stafford (13/20) and Peyton Manning (26/28) had a negative TD/INT ratio in their rookie/first season.

** Stafford had the second worse Yards/Attempt at 6.0, eclipsing only McNabb's 5.9.

** Stafford had the second worse Completion % at 53.0%, outperforming only Eli Manning's 52.8%. Only 3 (E Manning, P Manning and McNabb) of the 15 other QB's listed had a Completion % lower than 60.0% in their rookie season.

** Most alarming, at 61.0, Stafford easily had the worst QB Rating of the group. For comparative purposes, P Manning had the second worse QB Rating with a 71.2 in his rookie season...10 points higher than Stafford. 10 of the other 15 QB's had a QB Rating of 80.0+ and 4 of the 15 had a QB Rating of 90.0+.

If there's any saving grace, it's Stafford's Yards/Game. At 226 yards/game last year, Stafford outperformed all but 3 QB's (Rogers, P Manning, E Manning). The Lions will likely need to continuing throwing the ball to stay in games and, with the addition of Burleson, Scheffler, Best and a healthy Pettigrew, Stafford could certainly improve on this 226 yards/game.

For the people who rank Stafford as a Top-15 dynasty QB, do you believe the rookie/first season has little influence on the long-term success of a QB? Or, are you simply giving Stafford a mulligan in his first season? Disclaimer: I have Stafford in one of my four leagues. I'm wondering if the shark move is to get Top-15 value for a player who may very well never be a Top-15 QB.

Stafford

TD: 13

INT: 20

Yards/Game: 226

Yards/Attempt: 6.0

Comp Pct: 53.0%

Rating: 61.0

P Manning

TD: 26

INT: 28

Yards/Game: 233

Yards/Attempt: 6.5

Comp Pct: 56.7%

Rating: 71.2

Brees

TD: 17

INT: 16

Yards/Game: 205

Yards/Attempt: 6.2

Comp Pct: 60.8%

Rating: 76.9

Brady

TD: 18

INT: 12

Yards/Game: 189

Yards/Attempt: 6.9

Comp Pct: 63.9%

Rating: 86.5

A Rogers

TD: 28

INT: 13

Yards/Game: 252

Yards/Attempt: 7.5

Comp Pct: 63.6%

Rating: 93.8

Romo

TD: 19

INT: 13

Yards/Game: 181

Yards/Attempt: 8.6

Comp Pct: 65.3%

Rating: 95.1

Rivers

TD: 22

INT: 9

Yards/Game: 211

Yards/Attempt: 7.4

Comp Pct: 61.7%

Rating: 92.0

Schaub

TD: 9

INT: 9

Yards/Game: 203

Yards/Attempt: 7.8

Comp Pct: 66.4%

Rating: 87.2

Roethlisberger

TD: 17

INT: 11

Yards/Game: 198

Yards/Attempt: 8.9

Comp Pct: 66.4%

Rating: 98.1

Favre

TD: 18

INT: 13

Yards/Game: 215

Yards/Attempt: 6.9

Comp Pct: 64.1%

Rating: 85.3

McNabb

TD: 21

INT: 13

Yards/Game: 210

Yards/Attempt: 5.9

Comp Pct: 58.0%

Rating: 77.8

Eli Manning

TD: 24

INT: 17

Yards/Game: 235

Yards/Attempt: 6.8

Comp Pct: 52.8%

Rating: 75.9

Flacco

TD: 14

INT: 12

Yards/Game: 185

Yards/Attempt: 6.9

Comp Pct: 60.0%

Rating: 80.3

Palmer

TD: 18

INT: 18

Yards/Game: 222

Yards/Attempt: 6.7

Comp Pct: 60.9%

Rating: 77.3

M Ryan

TD: 16

INT: 11

Yards/Game: 215

Yards/Attempt: 7.9

Comp Pct: 61.1%

Rating: 87.7

Cutler

TD: 20

INT: 14

Yards/Game: 218

Yards/Attempt: 7.5

Comp Pct: 63.6%

Rating: 88.1

I think you are confusing his future by his rookie season. A rookie season is just to take your lumps and learn as much as you can. What if Stafford just sat and didn't play? Where are Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers rookie stats in this equation? Stafford looks like he is going to be a top 10 QB if you look past just his rookie stats.

Agreed. Look at Aikman's rookie year in a similar rebuilding situation...TD: 9

INT: 18

Y/G: 159

Comp %: 52.9

Rating: 55.7

Of course anomalies exist.Jerry Rice ran a 4.7/40.

Priest Holmes was never drafted.

Kurt Warner bagged groceries prior to being a possibly HOF QB.

 

[Christo]

There's a big difference from a rookie and a first year starter.

I agree 110%.That's why I included QB's that covered both of these bases. Stafford underperformed all of them.

Do you really think it's fair to compare Stafford with any of these QBs? We're talking Detroit here. A team that came off a winless season. I really don't see how you can just look at numbers and make a determination on that alone.

 

[Christo]

Stafford had one weapon (Calvin Johnson) last year and he was doubled and even triple teamed at times. Pettigrew had a handful of decent games as well, but the other WRs were Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt and they were brutal last year. It's hard to complete passes when nobody can get open. The RBs were bad and teams could drop back in zones because they knew the RBs couldn't do anything. I can't imagine any rookie putting up anything better than Stafford did with what he had to work with.

So...do you think Stafford walked into an offense that was worse than all of the 15 other QB's listed?

I do.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Stafford had one weapon (Calvin Johnson) last year and he was doubled and even triple teamed at times. Pettigrew had a handful of decent games as well, but the other WRs were Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt and they were brutal last year. It's hard to complete passes when nobody can get open. The RBs were bad and teams could drop back in zones because they knew the RBs couldn't do anything. I can't imagine any rookie putting up anything better than Stafford did with what he had to work with.

So...do you think Stafford walked into an offense that was worse than all of the 15 other QB's listed?

Far worse than almost all of them. Stafford had one weapon and he was doubled and even tripled all year, basically leaving him with nobody to throw to on many occasions.

Worse than (let's say) McNabb?McNabb let the team in rushing (Duce Staley was #2 at 344 yards rushing) and the top three WR's were Chad Lewis (735), Charles Lewis (642) and Torrence Small (569).

 

[az_prof]

I agree with the OP. Stafford is overrated given what he has shown. But that's pretty typical for high first round rookie QBs. His value won't plummet unless he has another horrible year.

As far as his weapons being poor, some people like to say that Calvin Johnson is the top Wr in the NFL and most rank him in the top 3. Lots of teams only have one great WR. So either he isn't that good or Stafford isn't that good. We will find out this year for sure because they added Best and Burleson.

 

[PhantomJB]

I agree with the OP. Stafford is overrated given what he has shown. But that's pretty typical for high first round rookie QBs. His value won't plummet unless he has another horrible year. As far as his weapons being poor, some people like to say that Calvin Johnson is the top Wr in the NFL and most rank him in the top 3. Lots of teams only have one great WR. So either he isn't that good or Stafford isn't that good. We will find out this year for sure because they added Best and Burleson.

Nothing will be definitively proven by a strictly quantitative analysis of one rookie season. There are just too many variables.The original post was asking why he is being taken at #15 in dynasty drafts. The most likely reason is that he showed enough visual evidence (as observed by intelligent evaluators) that suggest he may have a higher future ceiling than other QBs taken in that range who are either aging or already demonstrated a lower ceiling. Over in the IDP Forum, Jene Bramel is representing FBG in a startup Dynasty Experts League draft. In that draft, Stafford went QB13. Does that mean he is overrated? By so-called experts? Well, he was drafted by the same team (Dynasty Guys) that drafted Tom Brady. Choosing an aging, proven talent first and then fairly soon after drafting a high-upside 2nd year QB to bet on for the future just seems like a reasonable draft strategy to me. Don't NFL teams do that all the time?

 

[az_prof]

I agree with the OP. Stafford is overrated given what he has shown. But that's pretty typical for high first round rookie QBs. His value won't plummet unless he has another horrible year. As far as his weapons being poor, some people like to say that Calvin Johnson is the top Wr in the NFL and most rank him in the top 3. Lots of teams only have one great WR. So either he isn't that good or Stafford isn't that good. We will find out this year for sure because they added Best and Burleson.

Well, he was drafted by the same team (Dynasty Guys) that drafted Tom Brady. Choosing an aging, proven talent first and then fairly soon after drafting a high-upside 2nd year QB to bet on for the future just seems like a reasonable draft strategy to me. Don't NFL teams do that all the time?

Phanton, the question is not whether or not he is a good prospect to have on your bench in the hopes that he might one day replace your QB1. The question is whether or not drafting him QB15 is good value. To answer that question you would want to look at some of the other players of similar value being picked in the same tier. For my money, I would rather wait on picking a QB2 developmental prospect and load up on WRs and RBs who are good prospects. So, let's say you like Stafford but wait to pull the trigger so that you can draft some good WRs and RBs; who might you end up with that IMO could be better?1) Henne: He showed more last year as a rookie than Stafford with less; if you want to handicap Stafford who had Calvin you must handicap Henne even more whose best receiver was Ted Ginn Jr? Hartline? Now Henne has Marshall and you have to upgrade him significantly. Give me Henne over Stafford.2) Sanchez: I liked what I saw from him more than Stafford, but again, let's say it's a toss up. Sanchez added Holmes to an already pretty dynamic receiver corps. Give me Sanchez a few rounds later while I load up on WR prospects.3)Freeman: He also was a rookie QB who had no weapons--worse weapons than Stafford. And, he is a guy whose team did add some young WRs.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

I agree with the OP. Stafford is overrated given what he has shown. But that's pretty typical for high first round rookie QBs. His value won't plummet unless he has another horrible year.

As far as his weapons being poor, some people like to say that Calvin Johnson is the top Wr in the NFL and most rank him in the top 3. Lots of teams only have one great WR. So either he isn't that good or Stafford isn't that good. We will find out this year for sure because they added Best and Burleson.

Well, he was drafted by the same team (Dynasty Guys) that drafted Tom Brady. Choosing an aging, proven talent first and then fairly soon after drafting a high-upside 2nd year QB to bet on for the future just seems like a reasonable draft strategy to me. Don't NFL teams do that all the time?

Phanton, the question is not whether or not he is a good prospect to have on your bench in the hopes that he might one day replace your QB1. The question is whether or not drafting him QB15 is good value. To answer that question you would want to look at some of the other players of similar value being picked in the same tier. For my money, I would rather wait on picking a QB2 developmental prospect and load up on WRs and RBs who are good prospects. So, let's say you like Stafford but wait to pull the trigger so that you can draft some good WRs and RBs; who might you end up with that IMO could be better?

1) Henne: He showed more last year as a rookie than Stafford with less; if you want to handicap Stafford who had Calvin you must handicap Henne even more whose best receiver was Ted Ginn Jr? Hartline? Now Henne has Marshall and you have to upgrade him significantly. Give me Henne over Stafford.

2) Sanchez: I liked what I saw from him more than Stafford, but again, let's say it's a toss up. Sanchez added Holmes to an already pretty dynamic receiver corps. Give me Sanchez a few rounds later while I load up on WR prospects.

3)Freeman: He also was a rookie QB who had no weapons--worse weapons than Stafford. And, he is a guy whose team did add some young WRs.

Henne was not a rookie last season.I don't see how you can reasonably expect a 21 year old rookie Stafford who left after his junior year to play as well as a 23 year old, 2nd year NFL player who played all 4 years of college in Chad Henne. Not to mention the monumental disparity in offensive lines that they operated behind.

I can't imagine many 21 year old rookie quarterbacks stepping onto one of the worst, if not THE worst teams in NFL history, and performing much better. Stafford is ranked where he is because he displayed moxie and upside in the time he did play.

This coming from one of the biggest Henne fan's around and a guy who absolutely hated the Stafford pick when it was made.

After you get outside of those top 12 or so QB's its more of an educated guessing game. You take your stab at who you think will succeed. I tend to think guys like Stafford, Bradford and Henne will, while I am not as high on the prospects of Sanchez, Freeman, or Clausen.

 

[Donnybrook]

It is funny that everytime I read one of these debates no one mentions Matt Moore. I think that many people see him as the next Derrick Anderson.

Also, it seems more likely that experts are not rating a QB solely by his play but the quality of receivers around the QB. Obviously, Kolb, Stafford, Sanchez and Freeman have young receivers and I can understand a higher dynasty ranking is on that basis. However if Moore continues to play like he did at the end of the season, he might be the best non-fantasy QB under 25 years old.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Stafford had one weapon (Calvin Johnson) last year and he was doubled and even triple teamed at times. Pettigrew had a handful of decent games as well, but the other WRs were Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt and they were brutal last year. It's hard to complete passes when nobody can get open. The RBs were bad and teams could drop back in zones because they knew the RBs couldn't do anything. I can't imagine any rookie putting up anything better than Stafford did with what he had to work with.

So...do you think Stafford walked into an offense that was worse than all of the 15 other QB's listed?

Far worse than almost all of them. Stafford had one weapon and he was doubled and even tripled all year, basically leaving him with nobody to throw to on many occasions.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNs5nlqylqY

This isn't a 2009 clip....but it is of Calvin and proves your statement "double and even triple teamed all year"...to be incorrect. Unless you believe defenses completely switched coverages last year to double or triple team him. Then I would appreciate a breakdown of some hightlights/film to prove otherwise.

Play 1 (0:04)- Not double or triple teamed.....it's a zone.

Play 2 (0:14)- Not double or triple teamed.....it looks a like man coverage on him with a zone everywhere else.

Play 3 (0:32)- Not double or triple teamed.....it is man coverage with the CB bailing on the snap, which made the slant so successful..also having the TE going vertical helped.

Play 4 (0:45)- Not double or triple teamed....it is man coverage on a go route.

Play 5 (0:54)- Not double or triple teamed....it is man coverage on a fade.

Play 6 (0:58)- Who knows it was a broken play.

Play 7 (1:10)- same play as earlier and single coverage

Play 8 (1:20)- he is double covered with the flat player dropping and jumping at the pass after it's in the air.

Play 9 (1:26)- corner route with help over the top....but from a distance

Play 10(1:49)- fade route....single coverage

Play 11(1:57)- nobody was around him as he caught the ball...so no coverage...lol

Play 12(2:05)- single coverage on a crossing route.

Play 13(2:30)- single coverage

Play 14 - same as play 8

Play 15(3:00)- it's a hail mary

I just went through 3 minutes of a highlight of Calvin and found one play that you could even call a legit double team.

ETA: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNZ-80EoZdA

I just watched this 2009 clip and saw one legit double team. He took a skinny post and the CB and saftey were both covering Calvin tight, but he still made the catch. But only one play was a double team.

 

[prymetyme25]

I can't see how anyone could watch Stafford PLAY and not see something special in that kid. I believe Sanchez was fortunate not be be draft #1 and by the lion because I don't think he could have handled what Stafford did. I believe Freeman is a special guy too. I also believe Sanchez is only as good as the guys around him. JMHO

 

[mikel2014]

Stafford had one weapon (Calvin Johnson) last year and he was doubled and even triple teamed at times. Pettigrew had a handful of decent games as well, but the other WRs were Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt and they were brutal last year. It's hard to complete passes when nobody can get open. The RBs were bad and teams could drop back in zones because they knew the RBs couldn't do anything. I can't imagine any rookie putting up anything better than Stafford did with what he had to work with.

So...do you think Stafford walked into an offense that was worse than all of the 15 other QB's listed?

Far worse than almost all of them. Stafford had one weapon and he was doubled and even tripled all year, basically leaving him with nobody to throw to on many occasions.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNs5nlqylqY

This isn't a 2009 clip....but it is of Calvin and proves your statement "double and even triple teamed all year"...to be incorrect. Unless you believe defenses completely switched coverages last year to double or triple team him. Then I would appreciate a breakdown of some hightlights/film to prove otherwise.

Play 1 (0:04)- Not double or triple teamed.....it's a zone.

Play 2 (0:14)- Not double or triple teamed.....it looks a like man coverage on him with a zone everywhere else.

Play 3 (0:32)- Not double or triple teamed.....it is man coverage with the CB bailing on the snap, which made the slant so successful..also having the TE going vertical helped.

Play 4 (0:45)- Not double or triple teamed....it is man coverage on a go route.

Play 5 (0:54)- Not double or triple teamed....it is man coverage on a fade.

Play 6 (0:58)- Who knows it was a broken play.

Play 7 (1:10)- same play as earlier and single coverage

Play 8 (1:20)- he is double covered with the flat player dropping and jumping at the pass after it's in the air.

Play 9 (1:26)- corner route with help over the top....but from a distance

Play 10(1:49)- fade route....single coverage

Play 11(1:57)- nobody was around him as he caught the ball...so no coverage...lol

Play 12(2:05)- single coverage on a crossing route.

Play 13(2:30)- single coverage

Play 14 - same as play 8

Play 15(3:00)- it's a hail mary

I just went through 3 minutes of a highlight of Calvin and found one play that you could even call a legit double team.

ETA: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNZ-80EoZdA

I just watched this 2009 clip and saw one legit double team. He took a skinny post and the CB and saftey were both covering Calvin tight, but he still made the catch. But only one play was a double team.

I see one flaw with that. Don't you think it's easier to make highlight reel plays against less coverage? Logically I would assume that the double or triple teams would be less likely to produce big plays than zone or single coverage.

 

[PhantomJB]

I agree with the OP. Stafford is overrated given what he has shown. But that's pretty typical for high first round rookie QBs. His value won't plummet unless he has another horrible year.

As far as his weapons being poor, some people like to say that Calvin Johnson is the top Wr in the NFL and most rank him in the top 3. Lots of teams only have one great WR. So either he isn't that good or Stafford isn't that good. We will find out this year for sure because they added Best and Burleson.

Well, he was drafted by the same team (Dynasty Guys) that drafted Tom Brady. Choosing an aging, proven talent first and then fairly soon after drafting a high-upside 2nd year QB to bet on for the future just seems like a reasonable draft strategy to me. Don't NFL teams do that all the time?

Phanton, the question is not whether or not he is a good prospect to have on your bench in the hopes that he might one day replace your QB1. The question is whether or not drafting him QB15 is good value. To answer that question you would want to look at some of the other players of similar value being picked in the same tier. For my money, I would rather wait on picking a QB2 developmental prospect and load up on WRs and RBs who are good prospects. So, let's say you like Stafford but wait to pull the trigger so that you can draft some good WRs and RBs; who might you end up with that IMO could be better?

1) Henne: He showed more last year as a rookie than Stafford with less; if you want to handicap Stafford who had Calvin you must handicap Henne even more whose best receiver was Ted Ginn Jr? Hartline? Now Henne has Marshall and you have to upgrade him significantly. Give me Henne over Stafford.

2) Sanchez: I liked what I saw from him more than Stafford, but again, let's say it's a toss up. Sanchez added Holmes to an already pretty dynamic receiver corps. Give me Sanchez a few rounds later while I load up on WR prospects.

3)Freeman: He also was a rookie QB who had no weapons--worse weapons than Stafford. And, he is a guy whose team did add some young WRs.

All good, az. I was just seeking to explain the #15 ADP (not sure of the OP's source) as being part of a plausible draft strategy based on long-term perceived upside as opposed to focusing exclusively on Stafford's one-year rookie stats (for which there is way too little data and way too much variability in other QB's situations, both in the past and current peer group). Sometimes you just need to trust the eyes vs. the calculator is all.Your point about value is well taken and that waiting much, much later to grab Henne could be a better strategy (not sure about Sanchez and Freeman, tho, but that is JMO) rather than possibly having to reach for Stafford in order to get him ahead of the others.

While taking Stafford at #15 may or may not be a "reach", it is much harder to justify the huge disparity of FBG's dynasty ranking of Stafford at #10 with the rest of the group of Henne, Bradford, Freeman and Sanchez at #17-#21.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/v...amp;howrecent=7

 

[az_prof]

Phantom, I think you and I are pretty close in how we look at it.

It is surprising that FBG staff has Stafford at 10. I would put him closer to 20. My problem is that I can remember when people were saying similar things about Carr and Harrington. And the reality is that even highly drafted QBs have only about a 40% chance of becoming star QBs. Plus, you can only start one QB and they tend to have long careers. So if I already have a solid QB1 getting a QB2 prospect is way down on my dynasty list of needs. It's a luxury. And it's a gamble. Most of my league mates feel the same and even a proven QB has limited trade value. In our dynasty rookie draft last year Stafford was picked at 2.06. I doubt anyone would give a first round pick for him today in our league, even a late one.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Stafford had one weapon (Calvin Johnson) last year and he was doubled and even triple teamed at times. Pettigrew had a handful of decent games as well, but the other WRs were Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt and they were brutal last year. It's hard to complete passes when nobody can get open. The RBs were bad and teams could drop back in zones because they knew the RBs couldn't do anything. I can't imagine any rookie putting up anything better than Stafford did with what he had to work with.

So...do you think Stafford walked into an offense that was worse than all of the 15 other QB's listed?

Far worse than almost all of them. Stafford had one weapon and he was doubled and even tripled all year, basically leaving him with nobody to throw to on many occasions.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNs5nlqylqY

This isn't a 2009 clip....but it is of Calvin and proves your statement "double and even triple teamed all year"...to be incorrect. Unless you believe defenses completely switched coverages last year to double or triple team him. Then I would appreciate a breakdown of some hightlights/film to prove otherwise.

Play 1 (0:04)- Not double or triple teamed.....it's a zone.

Play 2 (0:14)- Not double or triple teamed.....it looks a like man coverage on him with a zone everywhere else.

Play 3 (0:32)- Not double or triple teamed.....it is man coverage with the CB bailing on the snap, which made the slant so successful..also having the TE going vertical helped.

Play 4 (0:45)- Not double or triple teamed....it is man coverage on a go route.

Play 5 (0:54)- Not double or triple teamed....it is man coverage on a fade.

Play 6 (0:58)- Who knows it was a broken play.

Play 7 (1:10)- same play as earlier and single coverage

Play 8 (1:20)- he is double covered with the flat player dropping and jumping at the pass after it's in the air.

Play 9 (1:26)- corner route with help over the top....but from a distance

Play 10(1:49)- fade route....single coverage

Play 11(1:57)- nobody was around him as he caught the ball...so no coverage...lol

Play 12(2:05)- single coverage on a crossing route.

Play 13(2:30)- single coverage

Play 14 - same as play 8

Play 15(3:00)- it's a hail mary

I just went through 3 minutes of a highlight of Calvin and found one play that you could even call a legit double team.

ETA: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNZ-80EoZdA

I just watched this 2009 clip and saw one legit double team. He took a skinny post and the CB and saftey were both covering Calvin tight, but he still made the catch. But only one play was a double team.

I see one flaw with that. Don't you think it's easier to make highlight reel plays against less coverage? Logically I would assume that the double or triple teams would be less likely to produce big plays than zone or single coverage.

I agree....but breaking down two highlight films and only seeing 2 plays of even double coverage.....you have to lean that people tend to think Calvin has more coverage than what is probably out there.

Plus I also don't think many people understand defensive football...and just say double or triple teamed. If Calvin was double or triple teammed and Stafford couldn't beat the defense 10 vs 9 or 10 vs 8 I would be even more alarmed.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNs5nlqylqY

This isn't a 2009 clip....but it is of Calvin and proves your statement "double and even triple teamed all year"...to be incorrect. Unless you believe defenses completely switched coverages last year to double or triple team him. Then I would appreciate a breakdown of some hightlights/film to prove otherwise.

Play 1 (0:04)- Not double or triple teamed.....it's a zone.

Play 2 (0:14)- Not double or triple teamed.....it looks a like man coverage on him with a zone everywhere else.

Play 3 (0:32)- Not double or triple teamed.....it is man coverage with the CB bailing on the snap, which made the slant so successful..also having the TE going vertical helped.

Play 4 (0:45)- Not double or triple teamed....it is man coverage on a go route.

Play 5 (0:54)- Not double or triple teamed....it is man coverage on a fade.

Play 6 (0:58)- Who knows it was a broken play.

Play 7 (1:10)- same play as earlier and single coverage

Play 8 (1:20)- he is double covered with the flat player dropping and jumping at the pass after it's in the air.

Play 9 (1:26)- corner route with help over the top....but from a distance

Play 10(1:49)- fade route....single coverage

Play 11(1:57)- nobody was around him as he caught the ball...so no coverage...lol

Play 12(2:05)- single coverage on a crossing route.

Play 13(2:30)- single coverage

Play 14 - same as play 8

Play 15(3:00)- it's a hail mary

I just went through 3 minutes of a highlight of Calvin and found one play that you could even call a legit double team.

ETA: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNZ-80EoZdA

I just watched this 2009 clip and saw one legit double team. He took a skinny post and the CB and saftey were both covering Calvin tight, but he still made the catch. But only one play was a double team.

I see one flaw with that. Don't you think it's easier to make highlight reel plays against less coverage? Logically I would assume that the double or triple teams would be less likely to produce big plays than zone or single coverage.

I agree....but breaking down two highlight films and only seeing 2 plays of even double coverage.....you have to lean that people tend to think Calvin has more coverage than what is probably out there.

Plus I also don't think many people understand defensive football...and just say double or triple teamed. If Calvin was double or triple teammed and Stafford could beat the defense 10 vs 9 or 10 vs 8 I would be even more alarmed.

The coaches and beat writers all have talked numerous times about the double and triple teams. I'd tend to take their word over a video of a few selected plays...all of which are highlights. There are no plays there that show heavy coverage on Calvin where they could not throw the ball to him. Double covered also doesn't always mean two defenders are right next to the receiver. Many coverages are subtle where players aren't necessarily draped all over the receiver, but close enough to not allow a throw to be made. Obviously, they won't show those plays in a video of Calvin Johnson highlights...but it doesn't mean it didn't happen. Anyone who watched the Lions play regularly saw the coverages. The comments about the double and triple teams are not an exaggeration.

 

[massraider]

Yeah, I think it's possible he's overrated.

Should he be higher than Kolb, Flacco, Henne, Freeman, Sanchez, and Moore? Maybe not. I'd like to see where these guys ADP winds up being in dynasty startups. And it's early yet, so I'd like to wait till August to see a true ADP.

I doubt he winds up going in front of Kolb, and maybe Flacco, when it's all said and done. And right around there sounds about right to me. One difference, when I look at the guys he's competing with in that 10-15 group, is that a lot of them seem to be on teams that want to run the ball, and the Lions seem like they want this kid to whip it around. Man, he threw the ball a ton last year. They weren't trying to protect him last year, like the Jets with Sanchez, they really put it on his shoulders last year. And for a kid that could have been in his senior season at Georgia, but was instead throwing it 40 times a game for the Lions, I thought he held up well.

I think it's easy to find 10 dynasty QBs I like better than Stafford. I think it's much tougher to find 15 guys I like better.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNs5nlqylqY

This isn't a 2009 clip....but it is of Calvin and proves your statement "double and even triple teamed all year"...to be incorrect. Unless you believe defenses completely switched coverages last year to double or triple team him. Then I would appreciate a breakdown of some hightlights/film to prove otherwise.

Play 1 (0:04)- Not double or triple teamed.....it's a zone.

Play 2 (0:14)- Not double or triple teamed.....it looks a like man coverage on him with a zone everywhere else.

Play 3 (0:32)- Not double or triple teamed.....it is man coverage with the CB bailing on the snap, which made the slant so successful..also having the TE going vertical helped.

Play 4 (0:45)- Not double or triple teamed....it is man coverage on a go route.

Play 5 (0:54)- Not double or triple teamed....it is man coverage on a fade.

Play 6 (0:58)- Who knows it was a broken play.

Play 7 (1:10)- same play as earlier and single coverage

Play 8 (1:20)- he is double covered with the flat player dropping and jumping at the pass after it's in the air.

Play 9 (1:26)- corner route with help over the top....but from a distance

Play 10(1:49)- fade route....single coverage

Play 11(1:57)- nobody was around him as he caught the ball...so no coverage...lol

Play 12(2:05)- single coverage on a crossing route.

Play 13(2:30)- single coverage

Play 14 - same as play 8

Play 15(3:00)- it's a hail mary

I just went through 3 minutes of a highlight of Calvin and found one play that you could even call a legit double team.

ETA: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNZ-80EoZdA

I just watched this 2009 clip and saw one legit double team. He took a skinny post and the CB and saftey were both covering Calvin tight, but he still made the catch. But only one play was a double team.

I see one flaw with that. Don't you think it's easier to make highlight reel plays against less coverage? Logically I would assume that the double or triple teams would be less likely to produce big plays than zone or single coverage.

I agree....but breaking down two highlight films and only seeing 2 plays of even double coverage.....you have to lean that people tend to think Calvin has more coverage than what is probably out there.

Plus I also don't think many people understand defensive football...and just say double or triple teamed. If Calvin was double or triple teammed and Stafford could beat the defense 10 vs 9 or 10 vs 8 I would be even more alarmed.

The coaches and beat writers all have talked numerous times about the double and triple teams. I'd tend to take their word over a video of a few selected plays...all of which are highlights. There are no plays there that show heavy coverage on Calvin where they could not throw the ball to him. Double covered also doesn't always mean two defenders are right next to the receiver. Many coverages are subtle where players aren't necessarily draped all over the receiver, but close enough to not allow a throw to be made. Obviously, they won't show those plays in a video of Calvin Johnson highlights...but it doesn't mean it didn't happen. Anyone who watched the Lions play regularly saw the coverages. The comments about the double and triple teams are not an exaggeration.

They also are biased and want to sympathize for their own players. Don't you agree?Video of selected plays...I didn't choose them...I found two youtube highlight reels. Find me some proof.

Anyone who watched games.....from the TV angle you can't determine coverages....you need the endzone angle for that or replays from those angles just after the play.

Apparently we should educate on defensive schemes then. Triple coverage? The only way I could think of is on a slant....or a deep dig(with both of these routes.....most good WR's would draw attention of two defenders) with a CB man up on him....saftey close over the top(but if he is a few yards off it isn't double covered)....with a LB dropping in his zone underneath of that area.

A hook, out, comeback from his X position couldn't see double coverage really. A go route would only see double coverage over the top and most of the schemes don't account for a close double coverage...they usually have the CB stopping in the flat and the saftey then takes the WR....or it's cover 3 with the CB and WR one on one.

Double coverage happens sometimes but I find it rare that two guys follow him around. What probably happens whenever he is double covered....is the defender in a zone moves to his area. The problem I see with this being a crutch....is that it is Calvin's job not to get covered up by multiple defenders(unless that is the design of the play). He needs to develop that part of his game and to find holes in coverage to utilize his athletic ability(then he wouldn't be double teamed).

Again, let me state that I am not saying he doesn't get double covered ever.....but the Lions fan's....Calvin lovers....keep that as a scapegoat as to why his numbers are down and players around him. Those fans need to come a little ways and realize that isn't always or even mostly the case. Either way....getting double covered without design and not getting open is somewhat CJ's fault. As you stated double coverage can come from depth and force throws to not be made. However a talented QB doesn't throw to a WR when they are open....they anticipate openings.

 

[Tau837]

I had Stafford and Henne behind Rodgers and traded Stafford away, preferring to keep Henne. And this was before Miami got Marshall.

That said, I like Stafford's potential. I wouldn't rank him as high as dynasty QB10, but I think having him around QB15 is about right.

 

[Bojang0301]

Stafford had one weapon (Calvin Johnson) last year and he was doubled and even triple teamed at times. Pettigrew had a handful of decent games as well, but the other WRs were Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt and they were brutal last year. It's hard to complete passes when nobody can get open. The RBs were bad and teams could drop back in zones because they knew the RBs couldn't do anything. I can't imagine any rookie putting up anything better than Stafford did with what he had to work with.

So...do you think Stafford walked into an offense that was worse than all of the 15 other QB's listed?

Emphatically yes. We're talking about a team that hasn't drafted one real NFL player outside of Calvin Johnson since prior to Millen being there and a team coming off the first 0-16 season ever. How could it be worse? I feel as if you put a lot of time in your research but you are also cherry picking and swaying the argument to your favor. Stafford also played injured part of the year and kept a team that shouldn't be in games in them at times. He'll be fine with the added weapons (Scheffler, Burleson, Best) and an improved defense keeping the other team from scoring 1000 pts every game. This team has had and continues to have the longest way to travel for success and from what I've seen from Stafford and Schwartz I've come away very impressed.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

The coaches and beat writers all have talked numerous times about the double and triple teams. I'd tend to take their word over a video of a few selected plays...all of which are highlights. There are no plays there that show heavy coverage on Calvin where they could not throw the ball to him. Double covered also doesn't always mean two defenders are right next to the receiver. Many coverages are subtle where players aren't necessarily draped all over the receiver, but close enough to not allow a throw to be made. Obviously, they won't show those plays in a video of Calvin Johnson highlights...but it doesn't mean it didn't happen.

Anyone who watched the Lions play regularly saw the coverages. The comments about the double and triple teams are not an exaggeration.

They also are biased and want to sympathize for their own players. Don't you agree?

Video of selected plays...I didn't choose them...I found two youtube highlight reels. Find me some proof.

Anyone who watched games.....from the TV angle you can't determine coverages....you need the endzone angle for that or replays from those angles just after the play.

Apparently we should educate on defensive schemes then. Triple coverage? The only way I could think of is on a slant....or a deep dig(with both of these routes.....most good WR's would draw attention of two defenders) with a CB man up on him....saftey close over the top(but if he is a few yards off it isn't double covered)....with a LB dropping in his zone underneath of that area.

A hook, out, comeback from his X position couldn't see double coverage really. A go route would only see double coverage over the top and most of the schemes don't account for a close double coverage...they usually have the CB stopping in the flat and the saftey then takes the WR....or it's cover 3 with the CB and WR one on one.

Double coverage happens sometimes but I find it rare that two guys follow him around. What probably happens whenever he is double covered....is the defender in a zone moves to his area. The problem I see with this being a crutch....is that it is Calvin's job not to get covered up by multiple defenders(unless that is the design of the play). He needs to develop that part of his game and to find holes in coverage to utilize his athletic ability(then he wouldn't be double teamed).

Again, let me state that I am not saying he doesn't get double covered ever.....but the Lions fan's....Calvin lovers....keep that as a scapegoat as to why his numbers are down and players around him. Those fans need to come a little ways and realize that isn't always or even mostly the case. Either way....getting double covered without design and not getting open is somewhat CJ's fault. As you stated double coverage can come from depth and force throws to not be made. However a talented QB doesn't throw to a WR when they are open....they anticipate openings.

I disagree completely with the bolded comment, especially when it comes to the beat writers. Why would they lie? Also, Tom Kowalski is money when it comes to beat writers and he mentioned this several times leading up to free agency and the draft. As for videos...you can't find a video of Calvin when he doesn't make plays. You found the only thing they show...highlight videos. Obviously there are going to be plays where there is single coverage...and in many of those, it was supposed to be double and someone blew a coverage. It's hard to think that someone made videos of the times Calvin was covered tightly.

A lot of the times he was tripled, there was the corner on him, plus a safety deep, and a LB who dropped into zone coverage in front of him. It's not easy to see all of them obviously because the defenders weren't necessarily draped all over Calvin. The Lions as a whole had very little room behind the LBs and it was even tighter windows to throw the ball where Calvin was. The lack of a running threat made it easy for the LBs to drop into zone coverage, right in front of the receivers. It didn't leave much room to throw the ball unless someone blew a coverage. Many of those coverages were not super tight double or triple coverages, but slanting half the defense towards a player...even a small amount...really limits the area the QB has to deliver the ball.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The whole "Calvin was triple teamed on every play" thing is way overrated. As a new Calvin FF owner I made a point to watch just about every Detroit game last year and it was not any worse than it is on any team that has one dominant WR and a not so great #2 (which is many).

It doesn't really matter though, because the whole point about "but Stafford only had one great offensive weapon" is silly when comparing him to those other QBs that the OP was comparing him to. What great offensive weapons did the '98 Colts have? What about the '99 Eagles? The 2002 Chargers? 2008 Ravens? 2007 Texans (with Andre Johnson hurt half the year, no less)? How many of them had more than one (or any) great offensive weapon? The list goes on.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

The coaches and beat writers all have talked numerous times about the double and triple teams. I'd tend to take their word over a video of a few selected plays...all of which are highlights. There are no plays there that show heavy coverage on Calvin where they could not throw the ball to him. Double covered also doesn't always mean two defenders are right next to the receiver. Many coverages are subtle where players aren't necessarily draped all over the receiver, but close enough to not allow a throw to be made. Obviously, they won't show those plays in a video of Calvin Johnson highlights...but it doesn't mean it didn't happen.

Anyone who watched the Lions play regularly saw the coverages. The comments about the double and triple teams are not an exaggeration.

They also are biased and want to sympathize for their own players. Don't you agree?

Video of selected plays...I didn't choose them...I found two youtube highlight reels. Find me some proof.

Anyone who watched games.....from the TV angle you can't determine coverages....you need the endzone angle for that or replays from those angles just after the play.

Apparently we should educate on defensive schemes then. Triple coverage? The only way I could think of is on a slant....or a deep dig(with both of these routes.....most good WR's would draw attention of two defenders) with a CB man up on him....saftey close over the top(but if he is a few yards off it isn't double covered)....with a LB dropping in his zone underneath of that area.

A hook, out, comeback from his X position couldn't see double coverage really. A go route would only see double coverage over the top and most of the schemes don't account for a close double coverage...they usually have the CB stopping in the flat and the saftey then takes the WR....or it's cover 3 with the CB and WR one on one.

Double coverage happens sometimes but I find it rare that two guys follow him around. What probably happens whenever he is double covered....is the defender in a zone moves to his area. The problem I see with this being a crutch....is that it is Calvin's job not to get covered up by multiple defenders(unless that is the design of the play). He needs to develop that part of his game and to find holes in coverage to utilize his athletic ability(then he wouldn't be double teamed).

Again, let me state that I am not saying he doesn't get double covered ever.....but the Lions fan's....Calvin lovers....keep that as a scapegoat as to why his numbers are down and players around him. Those fans need to come a little ways and realize that isn't always or even mostly the case. Either way....getting double covered without design and not getting open is somewhat CJ's fault. As you stated double coverage can come from depth and force throws to not be made. However a talented QB doesn't throw to a WR when they are open....they anticipate openings.

I disagree completely with the bolded comment, especially when it comes to the beat writers. Why would they lie? Also, Tom Kowalski is money when it comes to beat writers and he mentioned this several times leading up to free agency and the draft. If you don't think that coaches and beat writers of the Lions are biased towards the Lions...then you are in denial. Coaches are biased b/c they need to keep the player's confidence up, etc. The beat writers job is to sell...sell themselves...sell the column they write...sell the newspaper/internet/etc. If they reported on how the Lions best player is disappointing.....they could be out of a job. The Lions fans love Calvin Johnson...he is the white light in a dark and gloomy franchise.

As for videos...you can't find a video of Calvin when he doesn't make plays. You found the only thing they show...highlight videos. Obviously there are going to be plays where there is single coverage...and in many of those, it was supposed to be double and someone blew a coverage. It's hard to think that someone made videos of the times Calvin was covered tightly.

That is all we can go by. Unless you have endzone shots of games last season??? TV shows a tight sideline view that will only show the LOS....then quickly downfield once a ball is throw....hard to determine coverage that way.

A lot of the times he was tripled, there was the corner on him, plus a safety deep, and a LB who dropped into zone coverage in front of him.

What route is this? Like I stated earlier....A dig(15-20 yard deep crossing pattern), a slant, a post are the only options of that happening.

It's not easy to see all of them obviously because the defenders weren't necessarily draped all over Calvin.

So it could be your bias coming through and saying they are all over calvin...when in reality the saftey is 5 yards away from him(which is a long distance in the NFL). Again to reiterate....if they aren't draped on Calvin....it is his job to settle in a zone or seperate from a defender and Staffords job to anticipate. Calvin may be able to learn this in time and with more experience. Even Andre Johnson found a way around in Houston with not many weapons around him.

The Lions as a whole had very little room behind the LBs and it was even tighter windows to throw the ball where Calvin was. The lack of a running threat made it easy for the LBs to drop into zone coverage, right in front of the receivers. It didn't leave much room to throw the ball unless someone blew a coverage.

If the LB's are dropping that far...the underneath patterns(easiest to complete) would be wide open. Dumps to the TE/RB....screens....slants....curls...drives....etc. I would also assume with the lack of running game that defenses didn't blitz overly b/c of a young QB and average to below average OL.

Many of those coverages were not super tight double or triple coverages, but slanting half the defense towards a player...even a small amount...really limits the area the QB has to deliver the ball.

Again this comes back to it's Calvins job to get open. Also...if they are shading half the defense to Calvin...it would open things up even more with the dropping LB's for all of the other Lions players. And it doesn't matter if they aren't great players....1 on 1 or loose zones are easy to get open for an NFL player. So then it comes back to Stafford(and the point of the thread) failing to take advantage.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Stafford had one weapon (Calvin Johnson) last year and he was doubled and even triple teamed at times. Pettigrew had a handful of decent games as well, but the other WRs were Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt and they were brutal last year. It's hard to complete passes when nobody can get open. The RBs were bad and teams could drop back in zones because they knew the RBs couldn't do anything. I can't imagine any rookie putting up anything better than Stafford did with what he had to work with.

So...do you think Stafford walked into an offense that was worse than all of the 15 other QB's listed?

Emphatically yes. We're talking about a team that hasn't drafted one real NFL player outside of Calvin Johnson since prior to Millen being there and a team coming off the first 0-16 season ever. How could it be worse? I feel as if you put a lot of time in your research but you are also cherry picking and swaying the argument to your favor. Stafford also played injured part of the year and kept a team that shouldn't be in games in them at times. He'll be fine with the added weapons (Scheffler, Burleson, Best) and an improved defense keeping the other team from scoring 1000 pts every game. This team has had and continues to have the longest way to travel for success and from what I've seen from Stafford and Schwartz I've come away very impressed.

OK...instead of comparing Stafford to the (arguably) Top-15 FF QB's of today, let's compare him to the biggest 1st-round QB flops/disappointments/etc over the past decade. This list includes the likes of Carr, Harrington, Ramsey, Leftwich, Boller, Losman, A Smith and obviously Russell.** Only Joey Harrington and Alex Smith had lower QB Ratings their first year.** Only David Carr and Alex Smith had a worse TD/INT ratio.** Stafford was middle of the pack with Yards/Attempt and one of the leaders in Completion %. Stafford's 226 yards/game was easily the best of this group.I'm simply confused how a QB with Stafford's first season jumped into Top-10/15 status after a rookie season that is more comparable to historical flops/disappointments than Top-15 material. Sure...you can use the argument that the Lions were the worst NFL team in the history of planet Earth in both 2008 and 2009, but wouldn't that argument further damage Stafford's future upside since he's taking the ugliest girl and trying to turn her into the prom queen?StaffordTD: 13INT: 20Yards/Game: 226Yards/Attempt: 6.0Comp Pct: 53.0%Rating: 61.0David CarrTD: 9INT: 15Yards/Game: 162Yards/Attempt: 5.8Comp Pct: 52.5%Rating: 62.8Jamarcus RussellTD: 13INT: 8Yards/Game: 161Yards/Attempt: 6.6Comp Pct: 53.8%Rating: 77.1Alex Smith (2006/2005)TD: 16 / 1INT: 16 / 11Yards/Game: 180 / 97Yards/Attempt: 6.5 / 5.3Comp Pct: 58.1% / 50.9%Rating: 74.8 / 40.8Joey HarringtonTD: 12INT: 16Yards/Game: 163Yards/Attempt: 5.3Comp Pct: 50.1%Rating: 59.9JP LosmanTD: 8INT: 8Yards/Game: 148Yards/Attempt: 5.9Comp Pct: 49.6%Rating: 64.9Byron Leftwich TD: 14INT: 16Yards/Game: 187Yards/Attempt: 6.7Comp Pct: 57.2%Rating: 73.0Kyle BollerTD: 7INT: 9Yards/Game: 114Yards/Attempt: 5.6Comp Pct: 51.8%Rating: 62.4Patrick RamseyTD: 9INT: 8Yards/Game: 153Yards/Attempt: 6.8Comp Pct: 51.5%Rating: 71.8

 

[Bojang0301]

Stafford had one weapon (Calvin Johnson) last year and he was doubled and even triple teamed at times. Pettigrew had a handful of decent games as well, but the other WRs were Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt and they were brutal last year. It's hard to complete passes when nobody can get open. The RBs were bad and teams could drop back in zones because they knew the RBs couldn't do anything. I can't imagine any rookie putting up anything better than Stafford did with what he had to work with.

So...do you think Stafford walked into an offense that was worse than all of the 15 other QB's listed?

Emphatically yes. We're talking about a team that hasn't drafted one real NFL player outside of Calvin Johnson since prior to Millen being there and a team coming off the first 0-16 season ever. How could it be worse? I feel as if you put a lot of time in your research but you are also cherry picking and swaying the argument to your favor. Stafford also played injured part of the year and kept a team that shouldn't be in games in them at times. He'll be fine with the added weapons (Scheffler, Burleson, Best) and an improved defense keeping the other team from scoring 1000 pts every game. This team has had and continues to have the longest way to travel for success and from what I've seen from Stafford and Schwartz I've come away very impressed.

OK...instead of comparing Stafford to the (arguably) Top-15 FF QB's of today, let's compare him to the biggest 1st-round QB flops/disappointments/etc over the past decade. This list includes the likes of Carr, Harrington, Ramsey, Leftwich, Boller, Losman, A Smith and obviously Russell.** Only Joey Harrington and Alex Smith had lower QB Ratings their first year.** Only David Carr and Alex Smith had a worse TD/INT ratio.** Stafford was middle of the pack with Yards/Attempt and one of the leaders in Completion %. Stafford's 226 yards/game was easily the best of this group.I'm simply confused how a QB with Stafford's first season jumped into Top-10/15 status after a rookie season that is more comparable to historical flops/disappointments than Top-15 material. Sure...you can use the argument that the Lions were the worst NFL team in the history of planet Earth in both 2008 and 2009, but wouldn't that argument further damage Stafford's future upside since he's taking the ugliest girl and trying to turn her into the prom queen?StaffordTD: 13INT: 20Yards/Game: 226Yards/Attempt: 6.0Comp Pct: 53.0%Rating: 61.0David CarrTD: 9INT: 15Yards/Game: 162Yards/Attempt: 5.8Comp Pct: 52.5%Rating: 62.8Jamarcus RussellTD: 13INT: 8Yards/Game: 161Yards/Attempt: 6.6Comp Pct: 53.8%Rating: 77.1Alex Smith (2006/2005)TD: 16 / 1INT: 16 / 11Yards/Game: 180 / 97Yards/Attempt: 6.5 / 5.3Comp Pct: 58.1% / 50.9%Rating: 74.8 / 40.8Joey HarringtonTD: 12INT: 16Yards/Game: 163Yards/Attempt: 5.3Comp Pct: 50.1%Rating: 59.9JP LosmanTD: 8INT: 8Yards/Game: 148Yards/Attempt: 5.9Comp Pct: 49.6%Rating: 64.9Byron Leftwich TD: 14INT: 16Yards/Game: 187Yards/Attempt: 6.7Comp Pct: 57.2%Rating: 73.0Kyle BollerTD: 7INT: 9Yards/Game: 114Yards/Attempt: 5.6Comp Pct: 51.8%Rating: 62.4Patrick RamseyTD: 9INT: 8Yards/Game: 153Yards/Attempt: 6.8Comp Pct: 51.5%Rating: 71.8

HMM... perhaps I misunderstood the point your trying to make. I don't think he'll be top 10 this year especially given what the upper echelon did last year. That being said it would take a great deal to get Stafford from me. Not really sure what else to say. In this case I'm going to take a chance that numbers don't tell the whole story and will ride or die with Stafford unless someone blew me away with an offer before the season.Edit to add: How many rookie QB's have thrown for over 400yds in a game? Not trying to be snide with the question would actually like to know the answer.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Stafford had one weapon (Calvin Johnson) last year and he was doubled and even triple teamed at times. Pettigrew had a handful of decent games as well, but the other WRs were Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt and they were brutal last year. It's hard to complete passes when nobody can get open. The RBs were bad and teams could drop back in zones because they knew the RBs couldn't do anything. I can't imagine any rookie putting up anything better than Stafford did with what he had to work with.

So...do you think Stafford walked into an offense that was worse than all of the 15 other QB's listed?

Emphatically yes. We're talking about a team that hasn't drafted one real NFL player outside of Calvin Johnson since prior to Millen being there and a team coming off the first 0-16 season ever. How could it be worse? I feel as if you put a lot of time in your research but you are also cherry picking and swaying the argument to your favor. Stafford also played injured part of the year and kept a team that shouldn't be in games in them at times. He'll be fine with the added weapons (Scheffler, Burleson, Best) and an improved defense keeping the other team from scoring 1000 pts every game. This team has had and continues to have the longest way to travel for success and from what I've seen from Stafford and Schwartz I've come away very impressed.

OK...instead of comparing Stafford to the (arguably) Top-15 FF QB's of today, let's compare him to the biggest 1st-round QB flops/disappointments/etc over the past decade. This list includes the likes of Carr, Harrington, Ramsey, Leftwich, Boller, Losman, A Smith and obviously Russell.** Only Joey Harrington and Alex Smith had lower QB Ratings their first year.** Only David Carr and Alex Smith had a worse TD/INT ratio.** Stafford was middle of the pack with Yards/Attempt and one of the leaders in Completion %. Stafford's 226 yards/game was easily the best of this group.I'm simply confused how a QB with Stafford's first season jumped into Top-10/15 status after a rookie season that is more comparable to historical flops/disappointments than Top-15 material. Sure...you can use the argument that the Lions were the worst NFL team in the history of planet Earth in both 2008 and 2009, but wouldn't that argument further damage Stafford's future upside since he's taking the ugliest girl and trying to turn her into the prom queen?StaffordTD: 13INT: 20Yards/Game: 226Yards/Attempt: 6.0Comp Pct: 53.0%Rating: 61.0David CarrTD: 9INT: 15Yards/Game: 162Yards/Attempt: 5.8Comp Pct: 52.5%Rating: 62.8Jamarcus RussellTD: 13INT: 8Yards/Game: 161Yards/Attempt: 6.6Comp Pct: 53.8%Rating: 77.1Alex Smith (2006/2005)TD: 16 / 1INT: 16 / 11Yards/Game: 180 / 97Yards/Attempt: 6.5 / 5.3Comp Pct: 58.1% / 50.9%Rating: 74.8 / 40.8Joey HarringtonTD: 12INT: 16Yards/Game: 163Yards/Attempt: 5.3Comp Pct: 50.1%Rating: 59.9JP LosmanTD: 8INT: 8Yards/Game: 148Yards/Attempt: 5.9Comp Pct: 49.6%Rating: 64.9Byron Leftwich TD: 14INT: 16Yards/Game: 187Yards/Attempt: 6.7Comp Pct: 57.2%Rating: 73.0Kyle BollerTD: 7INT: 9Yards/Game: 114Yards/Attempt: 5.6Comp Pct: 51.8%Rating: 62.4Patrick RamseyTD: 9INT: 8Yards/Game: 153Yards/Attempt: 6.8Comp Pct: 51.5%Rating: 71.8

HMM... perhaps I misunderstood the point your trying to make. I don't think he'll be top 10 this year especially given what the upper echelon did last year. That being said it would take a great deal to get Stafford from me. Not really sure what else to say. In this case I'm going to take a chance that numbers don't tell the whole story and will ride or die with Stafford unless someone blew me away with an offer before the season.

In the league where I own Stafford, I have Cutler as my starter. With Eli Manning and Stafford as my backups, I actually traded away Eli Manning as opposed to Stafford...even though the numbers say otherwise. Like you, I do like Stafford's upside and hope the numbers are not telling the full story. I'm just hoping I did not make a mistake by doing so.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

If you don't think that coaches and beat writers of the Lions are biased towards the Lions...then you are in denial. Coaches are biased b/c they need to keep the player's confidence up, etc. The beat writers job is to sell...sell themselves...sell the column they write...sell the newspaper/internet/etc. If they reported on how the Lions best player is disappointing.....they could be out of a job. The Lions fans love Calvin Johnson...he is the white light in a dark and gloomy franchise.

You seriously believe the beat writers make things up because they are biased? If anything, the beat writers here are more anti-Lions than anything.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

The coaches and beat writers all have talked numerous times about the double and triple teams. I'd tend to take their word over a video of a few selected plays...all of which are highlights. There are no plays there that show heavy coverage on Calvin where they could not throw the ball to him. Double covered also doesn't always mean two defenders are right next to the receiver. Many coverages are subtle where players aren't necessarily draped all over the receiver, but close enough to not allow a throw to be made. Obviously, they won't show those plays in a video of Calvin Johnson highlights...but it doesn't mean it didn't happen.

Anyone who watched the Lions play regularly saw the coverages. The comments about the double and triple teams are not an exaggeration.

They also are biased and want to sympathize for their own players. Don't you agree?

Video of selected plays...I didn't choose them...I found two youtube highlight reels. Find me some proof.

Anyone who watched games.....from the TV angle you can't determine coverages....you need the endzone angle for that or replays from those angles just after the play.

Apparently we should educate on defensive schemes then. Triple coverage? The only way I could think of is on a slant....or a deep dig(with both of these routes.....most good WR's would draw attention of two defenders) with a CB man up on him....saftey close over the top(but if he is a few yards off it isn't double covered)....with a LB dropping in his zone underneath of that area.

A hook, out, comeback from his X position couldn't see double coverage really. A go route would only see double coverage over the top and most of the schemes don't account for a close double coverage...they usually have the CB stopping in the flat and the saftey then takes the WR....or it's cover 3 with the CB and WR one on one.

Double coverage happens sometimes but I find it rare that two guys follow him around. What probably happens whenever he is double covered....is the defender in a zone moves to his area. The problem I see with this being a crutch....is that it is Calvin's job not to get covered up by multiple defenders(unless that is the design of the play). He needs to develop that part of his game and to find holes in coverage to utilize his athletic ability(then he wouldn't be double teamed).

Again, let me state that I am not saying he doesn't get double covered ever.....but the Lions fan's....Calvin lovers....keep that as a scapegoat as to why his numbers are down and players around him. Those fans need to come a little ways and realize that isn't always or even mostly the case. Either way....getting double covered without design and not getting open is somewhat CJ's fault. As you stated double coverage can come from depth and force throws to not be made. However a talented QB doesn't throw to a WR when they are open....they anticipate openings.

I disagree completely with the bolded comment, especially when it comes to the beat writers. Why would they lie? Also, Tom Kowalski is money when it comes to beat writers and he mentioned this several times leading up to free agency and the draft. If you don't think that coaches and beat writers of the Lions are biased towards the Lions...then you are in denial. Coaches are biased b/c they need to keep the player's confidence up, etc. The beat writers job is to sell...sell themselves...sell the column they write...sell the newspaper/internet/etc. If they reported on how the Lions best player is disappointing.....they could be out of a job. The Lions fans love Calvin Johnson...he is the white light in a dark and gloomy franchise.

As for videos...you can't find a video of Calvin when he doesn't make plays. You found the only thing they show...highlight videos. Obviously there are going to be plays where there is single coverage...and in many of those, it was supposed to be double and someone blew a coverage. It's hard to think that someone made videos of the times Calvin was covered tightly.

That is all we can go by. Unless you have endzone shots of games last season??? TV shows a tight sideline view that will only show the LOS....then quickly downfield once a ball is throw....hard to determine coverage that way.

A lot of the times he was tripled, there was the corner on him, plus a safety deep, and a LB who dropped into zone coverage in front of him.

What route is this? Like I stated earlier....A dig(15-20 yard deep crossing pattern), a slant, a post are the only options of that happening.

It's not easy to see all of them obviously because the defenders weren't necessarily draped all over Calvin.

So it could be your bias coming through and saying they are all over calvin...when in reality the saftey is 5 yards away from him(which is a long distance in the NFL). Again to reiterate....if they aren't draped on Calvin....it is his job to settle in a zone or seperate from a defender and Staffords job to anticipate. Calvin may be able to learn this in time and with more experience. Even Andre Johnson found a way around in Houston with not many weapons around him.

The Lions as a whole had very little room behind the LBs and it was even tighter windows to throw the ball where Calvin was. The lack of a running threat made it easy for the LBs to drop into zone coverage, right in front of the receivers. It didn't leave much room to throw the ball unless someone blew a coverage.

If the LB's are dropping that far...the underneath patterns(easiest to complete) would be wide open. Dumps to the TE/RB....screens....slants....curls...drives....etc. I would also assume with the lack of running game that defenses didn't blitz overly b/c of a young QB and average to below average OL.

Many of those coverages were not super tight double or triple coverages, but slanting half the defense towards a player...even a small amount...really limits the area the QB has to deliver the ball.

Again this comes back to it's Calvins job to get open. Also...if they are shading half the defense to Calvin...it would open things up even more with the dropping LB's for all of the other Lions players. And it doesn't matter if they aren't great players....1 on 1 or loose zones are easy to get open for an NFL player. So then it comes back to Stafford(and the point of the thread) failing to take advantage.

The Lion QBs threw 90 passes to RBs and I bet half of those were dumpoffs on 3rd and long. They also threw a lot of short passes to TEs. The WRs other than Calvin caught a combined 78 passes. Bryant Johnson and Northcutt caught 70 of those passes. Neither of them could consistently get open and they were covered one-on-one all year. Teams would drop 7-8 players and the only thing open was dumpoffs to the RBs. You can talk about how easy it should be for a WR to get open in a soft zone or when covered man-to man or whatever other kind of coverage, but these WRs the Lions had still couldn't get open. Yes, they were THAT bad.

 

[Sebowski]

Agreed. Look at Aikman's rookie year in a similar rebuilding situation...TD: 9INT: 18Y/G: 159Comp %: 52.9Rating: 55.7

Of course anomalies exist.Jerry Rice ran a 4.7/40.Priest Holmes was never drafted.Kurt Warner bagged groceries prior to being a possibly HOF QB.

Then is it safe to say that you missed the boat on those guys too?Stats, Shmats. To me it looked like the kid can play.

 

[PhantomJB]

Give or take, it appears as if Stafford is being valued at approx #15 for dynasty QB's. If I were to cherry-pick, more people seem to rank Stafford in the #10-#15 range as opposed to the #16-#20 range for dynasty QB's. I read people mention the "it" factor when discussing Stafford's future. His arm strength is also compared to many of the gunslingers (ie. Favre, Cutler, etc) of the NFL. However, when I compare Stafford's rookie season to the rookie/first season's of the other Top-15 QB's, it appears as if Stafford falls severely short.Even if I ignore Stafford's 2-10 record as a starter, it's hard to ignore his stats compared to the other top (...and medium) shelf QB's in fantasy football. If you review the stats below, the following comparison's jump off the page:** Stafford easily has the worst TD/INT ratio of the group. In fact, only Stafford (13/20) and Peyton Manning (26/28) had a negative TD/INT ratio in their rookie/first season.** Stafford had the second worse Yards/Attempt at 6.0, eclipsing only McNabb's 5.9.** Stafford had the second worse Completion % at 53.0%, outperforming only Eli Manning's 52.8%. Only 3 (E Manning, P Manning and McNabb) of the 15 other QB's listed had a Completion % lower than 60.0% in their rookie season.** Most alarming, at 61.0, Stafford easily had the worst QB Rating of the group. For comparative purposes, P Manning had the second worse QB Rating with a 71.2 in his rookie season...10 points higher than Stafford. 10 of the other 15 QB's had a QB Rating of 80.0+ and 4 of the 15 had a QB Rating of 90.0+.If there's any saving grace, it's Stafford's Yards/Game. At 226 yards/game last year, Stafford outperformed all but 3 QB's (Rogers, P Manning, E Manning). The Lions will likely need to continuing throwing the ball to stay in games and, with the addition of Burleson, Scheffler, Best and a healthy Pettigrew, Stafford could certainly improve on this 226 yards/game.For the people who rank Stafford as a Top-15 dynasty QB, do you believe the rookie/first season has little influence on the long-term success of a QB? Or, are you simply giving Stafford a mulligan in his first season? Disclaimer: I have Stafford in one of my four leagues. I'm wondering if the shark move is to get Top-15 value for a player who may very well never be a Top-15 QB.StaffordTD: 13INT: 20Yards/Game: 226Yards/Attempt: 6.0Comp Pct: 53.0%Rating: 61.0P ManningTD: 26INT: 28Yards/Game: 233Yards/Attempt: 6.5Comp Pct: 56.7%Rating: 71.2BreesTD: 17INT: 16Yards/Game: 205Yards/Attempt: 6.2Comp Pct: 60.8%Rating: 76.9BradyTD: 18INT: 12Yards/Game: 189Yards/Attempt: 6.9Comp Pct: 63.9%Rating: 86.5A RogersTD: 28INT: 13Yards/Game: 252Yards/Attempt: 7.5Comp Pct: 63.6%Rating: 93.8RomoTD: 19INT: 13Yards/Game: 181Yards/Attempt: 8.6Comp Pct: 65.3%Rating: 95.1RiversTD: 22INT: 9Yards/Game: 211Yards/Attempt: 7.4Comp Pct: 61.7%Rating: 92.0SchaubTD: 9INT: 9Yards/Game: 203Yards/Attempt: 7.8Comp Pct: 66.4%Rating: 87.2RoethlisbergerTD: 17INT: 11Yards/Game: 198Yards/Attempt: 8.9Comp Pct: 66.4%Rating: 98.1FavreTD: 18INT: 13Yards/Game: 215Yards/Attempt: 6.9Comp Pct: 64.1%Rating: 85.3McNabbTD: 21INT: 13Yards/Game: 210Yards/Attempt: 5.9Comp Pct: 58.0%Rating: 77.8Eli ManningTD: 24INT: 17Yards/Game: 235Yards/Attempt: 6.8Comp Pct: 52.8%Rating: 75.9FlaccoTD: 14INT: 12Yards/Game: 185Yards/Attempt: 6.9Comp Pct: 60.0%Rating: 80.3PalmerTD: 18INT: 18Yards/Game: 222Yards/Attempt: 6.7Comp Pct: 60.9%Rating: 77.3M RyanTD: 16INT: 11Yards/Game: 215Yards/Attempt: 7.9Comp Pct: 61.1%Rating: 87.7CutlerTD: 20INT: 14Yards/Game: 218Yards/Attempt: 7.5Comp Pct: 63.6%Rating: 88.1

Even if you ignore your eyes and keep it strictly quantitative, consider this:Of all the above QB's, Stafford had the single-best individual game out of all them at 422 yds and 5 TD's. Only Romo had 5 TD's and only Rivers passed >400 yds.As a true rookie with few weapons and a terrible OL/rest of team, to have even one game better than all the others in your very elite sample set is truly remarkable.Rightly or wrongly, people believe they have just seen a glimpse of his potential and are betting on that. Why does that provoke such a strong "overrated" reaction? Plus, your quoted statistics are somewhat flawed. Of the above, only 5 (P.Manning, J.Flacco, M.Ryan, J.Cutler and B.Roth) were truly rookies for the figures quoted. Easy to understand why it was done in order to have apples-to-apples full season stats, but as others have pointed out there is a big difference between a first-year starter and a true rookie.Here are single game best stats for the above QBs in their "first years" (corresponding to your quoted stats). P.Manning (rookie) 357/3Brees (2nd yr) 336/2Brady (2nd) 364/2Rodgers (3rd) 313/3Romo (4th) 306/5Rivers (3rd) 436/2Schaub (4th) 392/4Favre (2nd) 214/3McNabb (2nd) 322/3E. Manning (2nd) 391/3Flacco ® 280/2Palmer (2nd) 382/3Ryan ® 277/2Cutler ® 244/4Roethlisberger ® 316/1You can argue till the cows come home that one game is one game, against Cleveland, etc., but the fact is no one else did it. QB 15 doesn't seem like such a huge bet when all the other QBs in that range have never done it once, haven't demonstrated the potential to do it, or are on the downside of their careers.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Agreed. Look at Aikman's rookie year in a similar rebuilding situation...TD: 9INT: 18Y/G: 159Comp %: 52.9Rating: 55.7

Of course anomalies exist.Jerry Rice ran a 4.7/40.Priest Holmes was never drafted.Kurt Warner bagged groceries prior to being a possibly HOF QB.

Then is it safe to say that you missed the boat on those guys too?Stats, Shmats. To me it looked like the kid can play.

Yup.Because of roster restraints, I have a hard time rostering undrafted RB's and bag boys. Was FF even in existence when Rice was a rookie?

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

The coaches and beat writers all have talked numerous times about the double and triple teams. I'd tend to take their word over a video of a few selected plays...all of which are highlights. There are no plays there that show heavy coverage on Calvin where they could not throw the ball to him. Double covered also doesn't always mean two defenders are right next to the receiver. Many coverages are subtle where players aren't necessarily draped all over the receiver, but close enough to not allow a throw to be made. Obviously, they won't show those plays in a video of Calvin Johnson highlights...but it doesn't mean it didn't happen.

Anyone who watched the Lions play regularly saw the coverages. The comments about the double and triple teams are not an exaggeration.

They also are biased and want to sympathize for their own players. Don't you agree?

Video of selected plays...I didn't choose them...I found two youtube highlight reels. Find me some proof.

Anyone who watched games.....from the TV angle you can't determine coverages....you need the endzone angle for that or replays from those angles just after the play.

Apparently we should educate on defensive schemes then. Triple coverage? The only way I could think of is on a slant....or a deep dig(with both of these routes.....most good WR's would draw attention of two defenders) with a CB man up on him....saftey close over the top(but if he is a few yards off it isn't double covered)....with a LB dropping in his zone underneath of that area.

A hook, out, comeback from his X position couldn't see double coverage really. A go route would only see double coverage over the top and most of the schemes don't account for a close double coverage...they usually have the CB stopping in the flat and the saftey then takes the WR....or it's cover 3 with the CB and WR one on one.

Double coverage happens sometimes but I find it rare that two guys follow him around. What probably happens whenever he is double covered....is the defender in a zone moves to his area. The problem I see with this being a crutch....is that it is Calvin's job not to get covered up by multiple defenders(unless that is the design of the play). He needs to develop that part of his game and to find holes in coverage to utilize his athletic ability(then he wouldn't be double teamed).

Again, let me state that I am not saying he doesn't get double covered ever.....but the Lions fan's....Calvin lovers....keep that as a scapegoat as to why his numbers are down and players around him. Those fans need to come a little ways and realize that isn't always or even mostly the case. Either way....getting double covered without design and not getting open is somewhat CJ's fault. As you stated double coverage can come from depth and force throws to not be made. However a talented QB doesn't throw to a WR when they are open....they anticipate openings.

I disagree completely with the bolded comment, especially when it comes to the beat writers. Why would they lie? Also, Tom Kowalski is money when it comes to beat writers and he mentioned this several times leading up to free agency and the draft. If you don't think that coaches and beat writers of the Lions are biased towards the Lions...then you are in denial. Coaches are biased b/c they need to keep the player's confidence up, etc. The beat writers job is to sell...sell themselves...sell the column they write...sell the newspaper/internet/etc. If they reported on how the Lions best player is disappointing.....they could be out of a job. The Lions fans love Calvin Johnson...he is the white light in a dark and gloomy franchise.

As for videos...you can't find a video of Calvin when he doesn't make plays. You found the only thing they show...highlight videos. Obviously there are going to be plays where there is single coverage...and in many of those, it was supposed to be double and someone blew a coverage. It's hard to think that someone made videos of the times Calvin was covered tightly.

That is all we can go by. Unless you have endzone shots of games last season??? TV shows a tight sideline view that will only show the LOS....then quickly downfield once a ball is throw....hard to determine coverage that way.

A lot of the times he was tripled, there was the corner on him, plus a safety deep, and a LB who dropped into zone coverage in front of him.

What route is this? Like I stated earlier....A dig(15-20 yard deep crossing pattern), a slant, a post are the only options of that happening.

It's not easy to see all of them obviously because the defenders weren't necessarily draped all over Calvin.

So it could be your bias coming through and saying they are all over calvin...when in reality the saftey is 5 yards away from him(which is a long distance in the NFL). Again to reiterate....if they aren't draped on Calvin....it is his job to settle in a zone or seperate from a defender and Staffords job to anticipate. Calvin may be able to learn this in time and with more experience. Even Andre Johnson found a way around in Houston with not many weapons around him.

The Lions as a whole had very little room behind the LBs and it was even tighter windows to throw the ball where Calvin was. The lack of a running threat made it easy for the LBs to drop into zone coverage, right in front of the receivers. It didn't leave much room to throw the ball unless someone blew a coverage.

If the LB's are dropping that far...the underneath patterns(easiest to complete) would be wide open. Dumps to the TE/RB....screens....slants....curls...drives....etc. I would also assume with the lack of running game that defenses didn't blitz overly b/c of a young QB and average to below average OL.

Many of those coverages were not super tight double or triple coverages, but slanting half the defense towards a player...even a small amount...really limits the area the QB has to deliver the ball.

Again this comes back to it's Calvins job to get open. Also...if they are shading half the defense to Calvin...it would open things up even more with the dropping LB's for all of the other Lions players. And it doesn't matter if they aren't great players....1 on 1 or loose zones are easy to get open for an NFL player. So then it comes back to Stafford(and the point of the thread) failing to take advantage.

The Lion QBs threw 90 passes to RBs and I bet half of those were dumpoffs on 3rd and long. They also threw a lot of short passes to TEs. The WRs other than Calvin caught a combined 78 passes. Bryant Johnson and Northcutt caught 70 of those passes. Neither of them could consistently get open and they were covered one-on-one all year. Teams would drop 7-8 players and the only thing open was dumpoffs to the RBs. You can talk about how easy it should be for a WR to get open in a soft zone or when covered man-to man or whatever other kind of coverage, but these WRs the Lions had still couldn't get open. Yes, they were THAT bad.

I just went back and charted the Lions first 5 games. I took targets for the RB's for each game.First I want to clarify what is 3rd and long? 3rd and short = 0-3 yards, 3rd and medium= 4-6 yards, 3rd and long 7+ yards.

RB's were targeted 42 times in the first 5 games and only 7 were of 3rd and long situations. So 7/42 or 16.6% were 3rd and long.

Catch % for the season:

Calvin Johnson=48.9%

Bryant Johnson=40.9%

Dennis Northcutt=54.8%

Kevin Smith=71.4%

Maurice Morris=68.4%

Aaron Brown=60%

Pettirgrew=56.3%

So Calvin only beat out Bryant Johnson in this category....i'm sure it's because of the double or triple teams all season though.

Considering everything else before this was going off of what you said....I'm not sure how accurate you would be considering.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I just went back and charted the Lions first 5 games. I took targets for the RB's for each game.First I want to clarify what is 3rd and long? 3rd and short = 0-3 yards, 3rd and medium= 4-6 yards, 3rd and long 7+ yards.RB's were targeted 42 times in the first 5 games and only 7 were of 3rd and long situations. So 7/42 or 16.6% were 3rd and long.Catch % for the season:Calvin Johnson=48.9%Bryant Johnson=40.9%Dennis Northcutt=54.8%Kevin Smith=71.4%Maurice Morris=68.4%Aaron Brown=60%Pettirgrew=56.3%So Calvin only beat out Bryant Johnson in this category....i'm sure it's because of the double or triple teams all season though.Considering everything else before this was going off of what you said....I'm not sure how accurate you would be considering.

Bryant Johnson and Northcutt were single covered all year and look at those percentages. I don't know what else you need to see.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I just went back and charted the Lions first 5 games. I took targets for the RB's for each game.First I want to clarify what is 3rd and long? 3rd and short = 0-3 yards, 3rd and medium= 4-6 yards, 3rd and long 7+ yards.RB's were targeted 42 times in the first 5 games and only 7 were of 3rd and long situations. So 7/42 or 16.6% were 3rd and long.Catch % for the season:Calvin Johnson=48.9%Bryant Johnson=40.9%Dennis Northcutt=54.8%Kevin Smith=71.4%Maurice Morris=68.4%Aaron Brown=60%Pettirgrew=56.3%So Calvin only beat out Bryant Johnson in this category....i'm sure it's because of the double or triple teams all season though.Considering everything else before this was going off of what you said....I'm not sure how accurate you would be considering.

Bryant Johnson and Northcutt were single covered all year and look at those percentages. I don't know what else you need to see.

Facts instead of YOU saying so. I broke down two different Calvin Highlight films that had 2 combined instances of double coverage. Then I broke down 5 games of play by play....that showed you were incorrect about the RB targets.Then I broke down catch %....to show Calvin was one of the worst on the team.But in the end.....you want us to go by by what you say...instead of what I can prove/see/facts?

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

I just went back and charted the Lions first 5 games. I took targets for the RB's for each game.First I want to clarify what is 3rd and long? 3rd and short = 0-3 yards, 3rd and medium= 4-6 yards, 3rd and long 7+ yards.RB's were targeted 42 times in the first 5 games and only 7 were of 3rd and long situations. So 7/42 or 16.6% were 3rd and long.Catch % for the season:Calvin Johnson=48.9%Bryant Johnson=40.9%Dennis Northcutt=54.8%Kevin Smith=71.4%Maurice Morris=68.4%Aaron Brown=60%Pettirgrew=56.3%So Calvin only beat out Bryant Johnson in this category....i'm sure it's because of the double or triple teams all season though.Considering everything else before this was going off of what you said....I'm not sure how accurate you would be considering.

Bryant Johnson and Northcutt were single covered all year and look at those percentages. I don't know what else you need to see.

Facts instead of YOU saying so. I broke down two different Calvin Highlight films that had 2 combined instances of double coverage. Then I broke down 5 games of play by play....that showed you were incorrect about the RB targets.Then I broke down catch %....to show Calvin was one of the worst on the team.But in the end.....you want us to go by by what you say...instead of what I can prove/see/facts?

Do you seriously need to bring your tired act into every thread? You sit there and tell someone to bring some facts to the table, while you are bringing Youtube highlight videos as your evidence?Come on man

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I just went back and charted the Lions first 5 games. I took targets for the RB's for each game.

First I want to clarify what is 3rd and long? 3rd and short = 0-3 yards, 3rd and medium= 4-6 yards, 3rd and long 7+ yards.

RB's were targeted 42 times in the first 5 games and only 7 were of 3rd and long situations. So 7/42 or 16.6% were 3rd and long.

Catch % for the season:

Calvin Johnson=48.9%

Bryant Johnson=40.9%

Dennis Northcutt=54.8%

Kevin Smith=71.4%

Maurice Morris=68.4%

Aaron Brown=60%

Pettirgrew=56.3%

So Calvin only beat out Bryant Johnson in this category....i'm sure it's because of the double or triple teams all season though.

Considering everything else before this was going off of what you said....I'm not sure how accurate you would be considering.

Bryant Johnson and Northcutt were single covered all year and look at those percentages. I don't know what else you need to see.

Facts instead of YOU saying so. I broke down two different Calvin Highlight films that had 2 combined instances of double coverage.

Then I broke down 5 games of play by play....that showed you were incorrect about the RB targets.

Then I broke down catch %....to show Calvin was one of the worst on the team.

But in the end.....you want us to go by by what you say...instead of what I can prove/see/facts?

The coaches and beat writers said the same thing. They saw every play. They would know more than anyone. I saw the same things although I did not see every play from every angle. Other than a handful of plays by Pettigrew, Calvin was pretty much the only receiver they had who could make any plays. Any Lions fan that watched them all year can tell you the same thing. As for your proof...you used selected videos of plays where Calvin caught the ball...but no plays where he was too covered to be thrown to. What exactly does that prove?

Calvin had a low percentage while being blanketed with coverage. Northcutt and Bryant Johnson had low percentages while seeing single coverage most of the time. The numbers without the accompanying facts don't tell the whole story. The simple truth is Bryant Johnson and Northcutt were nothing short of brutal all year. They were left in single coverage for pretty much the entire year and still couldn't make any plays and still had low catch percentages.

Below are a couple of articles from the locals.

Link 1

The acquisitions of Burleson at receiver and Scheffler at tight end, along with the drafting of running back Jahvid Best, should take some of the pressure off Johnson, and the hope is they will force defenses to employ fewer double and triple teams.

Johnson saw single coverage only a handful of times last season, but when he did, he was unstoppable. The Bears tried covering him with a single defender in their Week 3 matchup in Chicago. Johnson had five catches for 119 yards in the first half, forcing the Bears to switch to Cover 2 in the second.

Link 2

Part of that conversation with Johnson should include a commitment to finding a player who can take some pressure off Johnson. They tried with Bryant Johnson and Kevin Smith. Didn't work.

Teams are using three defenders to stop Calvin Johnson, and that's not going to change until the Lions find another legitimate threat.

"They're not adding just one, but two extra people. That's three total people to defend him," Linehan said. "They'll use a linebacker and the safety who is supposed to be playing half the field. That's where we have to have the person I call the eraser, the person who erases that as a potential game plan. That has to be neutralized by somebody, whether it's the run game or another receiver, a slot guy or whatever.

"Something has to give there, because you can't keep trying to get the guy the football who's being triple-covered. I think the players know that's going to be a big part of our goals in the offseason."

I really don't know what else you need to see. If you think the coaches and beat writers are making this stuff up, then there is no point in debating anything.

 

[Christo]

I broke down two different Calvin Highlight films that had 2 combined instances of double coverage.

Interesting. In order to prove that CJ wasn't double/triple teamed you broke down two "highlight films" which, by definition, would only include plays where the QB decided CJ was open. Didn't it occur to you that most of the plays where the QB decided CJ wasn't open wouldn't end up on a highlight reel.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Do you seriously need to bring your tired act into every thread? You sit there and tell someone to bring some facts to the table, while you are bringing Youtube highlight videos as your evidence?Come on man

It's better than making opinons with nothing to back it up.Tired act is funny as well....debating players....discussing different ways of thinking is what the shark pool is about. I feel that is what seperates FBG FF players from others....different schools of thought. Would you rather me agree....then nobody knows any other side of a player?The sad part about this thread is I admit that Calvin is double teamed some....and the plays I don't see he could be doubled teamed more often. But the other side of this argument won't admit that someone isn't double or triple teamed all year. That is just poor defense for the NFL and inaccurate information. Flooding the pool is inaccurate information brings the Shark pool down.Do I like Calvin Johnson? Yes....as a top 6 dynasty guy as some promote....no.Do I like Matt Stafford? Yes....he is a competitor that showed a lot of grit in that Browns game last season. He takes too many chances and relies on his arm too often(Cutler too) but he did this at Georgia as well. That said, those traits also make Stafford good as well. It is how much can the coaches bring Stafford and Cutler to a more conservative approach while keeping them in a gunslinger role....it's a difficult task.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I broke down two different Calvin Highlight films that had 2 combined instances of double coverage.

Interesting. In order to prove that CJ wasn't double/triple teamed you broke down two "highlight films" which, by definition, would only include plays where the QB decided CJ was open. Didn't it occur to you that most of the plays where the QB decided CJ wasn't open wouldn't end up on a highlight reel.

I agreed with another poster who stated this earlier in the thread.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

The coaches and beat writers said the same thing. They saw every play. They would know more than anyone. I saw the same things although I did not see every play from every angle. Other than a handful of plays by Pettigrew, Calvin was pretty much the only receiver they had who could make any plays. Any Lions fan that watched them all year can tell you the same thing.

As for your proof...you used selected videos of plays where Calvin caught the ball...but no plays where he was too covered to be thrown to. What exactly does that prove?

It proves that he isn't constantly double or triple teamed.

Calvin had a low percentage while being blanketed with coverage. Northcutt and Bryant Johnson had low percentages while seeing single coverage most of the time. The numbers without the accompanying facts don't tell the whole story. The simple truth is Bryant Johnson and Northcutt were nothing short of brutal all year. They were left in single coverage for pretty much the entire year and still couldn't make any plays and still had low catch percentages.

Below are a couple of articles from the locals.

Link 1

The acquisitions of Burleson at receiver and Scheffler at tight end, along with the drafting of running back Jahvid Best, should take some of the pressure off Johnson, and the hope is they will force defenses to employ fewer double and triple teams.

Johnson saw single coverage only a handful of times last season, but when he did, he was unstoppable. The Bears tried covering him with a single defender in their Week 3 matchup in Chicago. Johnson had five catches for 119 yards in the first half, forcing the Bears to switch to Cover 2 in the second.

This is funny in it's own right and helps prove my point. "Johnson saw single coverage only a handful of times last season" "The Bears tried covering him with a single defender....Johnson had FIVE catches in the first half" isn't 5 a handfull? Were those the only plays he had single coverage all year? NO....this is the reporting and fan watching....and coach buildup I am talking about. Also in the Bears cover 2 scheme.....a player is rarely double covered on the outside(Calvin's positon) unless they run some type of inward pattern(dig, post, slant).

Link 2

Part of that conversation with Johnson should include a commitment to finding a player who can take some pressure off Johnson. They tried with Bryant Johnson and Kevin Smith. Didn't work.

Teams are using three defenders to stop Calvin Johnson, and that's not going to change until the Lions find another legitimate threat.

"They're not adding just one, but two extra people. That's three total people to defend him," Linehan said. "They'll use a linebacker and the safety who is supposed to be playing half the field. That's where we have to have the person I call the eraser, the person who erases that as a potential game plan. That has to be neutralized by somebody, whether it's the run game or another receiver, a slot guy or whatever.

"Something has to give there, because you can't keep trying to get the guy the football who's being triple-covered. I think the players know that's going to be a big part of our goals in the offseason."

I really don't know what else you need to see. If you think the coaches and beat writers are making this stuff up, then there is no point in debating anything.

 

[ookook]

I think QB15 is just about right actually. Of course, depends on whether I have a more short-range or long range plan for success.

Of course, I think in most league formats I am NOT picking a QB early at all and am willing to sluff the position and piece it together late.