Benson and Dayne were every bit the prospect that McFadden was, and had even better college resumes. They didn't do it at gimmicky offenses like McFadden did.
Dayne was a plodder and Benson was a workhorse, not much more. I wasn't alone in being pretty damn sure both those guys would be NFL busts. Neither of them had close to the measurables of McFadden.
Yeah, lots of people thought Peyton Manning would bust, or Donovan McNabb would bust, or Philip Rivers would bust. People said Adrian Peterson would bust, too.There are lots of people out there. Every player will have some people say they'll bust. But when a guy is a top 10 pick, he's expected to be a stud by almost everyone. McFadden falls into that group, too.
There's not a single better predictor of NFL success than your overall draft selection. Not the college you went to, the conference you were in, your broad jump, or how many kids you have. Emmitt Smith was a workhorse, and Jerome Bettis was a plodder -- those are two of your top five all time leading rushers. The majority of people thought Dayne and Benson were going to be stars in the NFL. They busted. It happens.
The majority of people think McFadden will be a star. I recognize I'm in the (seemingly ever growing) minority here by saying he's too risky for me. But I don't want him on the Jets because I see his risk ratio as being high (because of the BMI and running style) and I see his upside
value to the Jets as limited, since they already have Leon Washington. If the Jets just had Thomas Jones, or had Kevan Barlow, sure, I'd say roll the dice on McFadden. But his value to the Jets -- he'd have to be noticeably better than a combination of Washington and Jones -- discounted by his likelihood of reaching that level, makes him an odd choice for New York.
Obviously Gholston is the ideal guy for me. I doubt Long will be there, but he's ideal, too. I don't want Dorsey or Ellis since they don't fit the 3-4. I'd prefer to trade down and grab multiple picks, pick value chart be damned, if it's McFadden or Dorsey. If the Jets brass is in love with one of the three small school corners, I'd prefer to go that route. I'd rank the Jets needs as follows:
1. RDE for the 3-4
2. LDE for the 3-4
3. CB2
4. OLB2
5. FS
6. TE
7. WR
8. QB
9. RB
Seeing how there's no player I see worth picking at 6 that can satisfy needs 1-3, I'd go after Gholston.