McNair...What are you expecting out of him? (1 Viewer)

[bigreese82]

What kind of numbers are you expecting out of McNair? It seems like with the weapons that he has and the struggles in the run game, that he could be top 15. Any thoughts? Is he over the hill or does he have one last stand ? Looks like he could be tremendous value in redrafts

 

[TinHat]

honestly.

injury followed by Boller taking over

 

[flufhed]

IMO he is over the hill, and he is likely to get killed behind that offensive line. My guess is he has some very good weeks, but has some bad ones, too, and is unlikely to play all year.

 

[bigreese82]

Taking injury out of the equation, how do you expect him to perform? McNair normally doesn't take alot of sacks because of his pocket awareness and pure strength. Is the O-Line that bad at pass blocking or is it McGahee and the run game that makes the o-line look bad? Baltimore Homers??? Looks like with Heap and Demetrius Williams that he has nice redzone threats

 

[Da Guru]

Steve "Questionable" McNair should be in the 14-18 area when all is said and done.

 

[vandyt]

Depends alot on Ogden's health...theres already talk of him missing week 1.

Balt's passing game really improved after Billick took over the play calling last year. McNair could be a 235/1.5 a game QB while healthy, making him a weaker starter or a fantastic backup while healthy.

 

[Sullie]

I would fully expect McNair to go down with a career ending injury at any point in the year, he's the oldest 34 year old player in the game today. I mean absolutely no disrespect to the man at all (he's a helluva player) but he's really beaten up and injury prone.

 

[Chaka]

Three WRs in the top 50 what? Clayton's ADP is WR #34, Mason #48, Williams #84.

Despite a weak receiving corps and an unsettled line, McNair will still produce decent numbers on a PPG basis but his O/U for games started is 13 and for games finished is probably 10 so I see very little chance for him to finish top 15 in total points for a QB.

 

[Dodge]

He better do well, I've got Heap as my #1 TE. If not I have to rely on Vernon Davis.

 

[CalBear]

Where's this thing about McNair being injury-prone coming from? Check out this list:

P.Manning

Palmer

Brees

Brady

E.Manning

Favre

FBG currently has McNair listed as the #24 QB. Of the 23 QBs listed ahead of him, the above is the complete list of QBs who've played as many games as McNair in the past two years.

I think it's quite silly to be projecting McNair below Matt Schaub, Jason Campbell, Alex Smith, among others. Remember that McNair, last year, came to Baltimore very late, had very little time to pick up the offense, and still finished as the #17 QB overall.

I think FBG is missing the boat on this one; Baltimore was the #13 passing offense last year, and they should improve this year.

 

[Chaka]

Where's this thing about McNair being injury-prone coming from? Check out this list:

P.Manning

Palmer

Brees

Brady

E.Manning

Favre

FBG currently has McNair listed as the #24 QB. Of the 23 QBs listed ahead of him, the above is the complete list of QBs who've played as many games as McNair in the past two years.

I think it's quite silly to be projecting McNair below Matt Schaub, Jason Campbell, Alex Smith, among others. Remember that McNair, last year, came to Baltimore very late, had very little time to pick up the offense, and still finished as the #17 QB overall.

I think FBG is missing the boat on this one; Baltimore was the #13 passing offense last year, and they should improve this year.

McNair played in 16 games last year but threw only four passes in two of those games.He played in 14 the year before and in one game only threw 13 passes.

8 games started in '04 with two games with 5 & 14 pass attempts.

14 games started in '03 with one game with 11 pass attempts.

Then there are the number of weeks he will be giving fantasy owners headaches with his questionable status.

McNair is nice on a PPG basis but he seems like more trouble than he is worth.

 

[CalBear]

McNair played in 16 games last year but threw only four passes in two of those games.He played in 14 the year before and in one game only threw 13 passes.

Outside of the top ironmen, none of the other people ahead of McNair are any better in this measures either. (And even Manning threw just 12 passes in week 16 in 2005). You really think Alex Smith, Jason Campbell, and Jake Delhomme are less trouble than McNair?

 

[Chaka]

McNair played in 16 games last year but threw only four passes in two of those games.He played in 14 the year before and in one game only threw 13 passes.

Outside of the top ironmen, none of the other people ahead of McNair are any better in this measures either. (And even Manning threw just 12 passes in week 16 in 2005). You really think Alex Smith, Jason Campbell, and Jake Delhomme are less trouble than McNair?

Smith and Delhomme, yes.Campbell, maybe. It would depend on bye weeks (start 2QB league).

 

[Chase Stuart]

I've got McNair ranking 21st (18th if you only count one Eagles, Seahawks and Cardinals QB) last season in adjFP/adjG, which adjusts for games played and strength of schedule. Unless you're expecting big improvements out of McNair, Heap, Mason, Clayton or Williams, I don't see much of a reason to see a big jump.

 

[kensat30]

I'm expect McNair to have another mediocre year. Bottomline, Baltimore's D is just so good that they don't need to pass the ball to win in most games. You are not going to see McNair with 600+ or even 500+ passing attempts this year. Baltimore is possibly one of the worst spots for a fantasy QB. Especially when you consider how big of a role Todd Heap (a low yards per attempt target) has played in their gameplan for the past half decade.

Baltimore has better weapons at WR than they have ever had before. That doesn't mean those WRs hold much fantasy value thoguh IMO. Much more NFL value there than fantasy value. I have a grand total of 1 Baltimore WR in my top50 and that is Mark Clayton. And he's not very high in my top50 either. I wouldn't want as much more than a WR4, and maybe WR3 in big leagues. I feel that Mark Clayton is a young WR who is heavily overrated in fantasy circles this year. Everyone wants upside, and while Clayton iss good he's not a great player. And again he is just in a poor situation for fantasy purposes with an aging McNair, a tough Baltimore D, and a heavily targeted Todd Heap.

One last thing, I just don't buy Mason giving way to D.Williams this season. Baltimore doesn't need an explosive young guy to gamble on in the WR#2 position. And Mason a solid vet and too good of an all around player to bench without a serious injury. The guy has led the team in receptions for 2 consecutive years, his only 2 years with the team, and he has been injury free almost his entire career. The man is a gamer. That said, Mason is a reliable guy, albeit unexciting, who should continue to start and post below average numbers for McNair. And don't forget about Todd Heap's pool of targets which he should convert for a low amount of fantasy points.

I'm expecting somewhere around a QB20 finish for McNair. Not very valuable in any format.

 

[CalBear]

I've got McNair ranking 21st (18th if you only count one Eagles, Seahawks and Cardinals QB) last season in adjFP/adjG, which adjusts for games played and strength of schedule. Unless you're expecting big improvements out of McNair, Heap, Mason, Clayton or Williams, I don't see much of a reason to see a big jump.

Wouldn't you expect improvements out of McNair, given that he had almost no time to learn the offense last year? Clayton improved from 471/2 to 939/5 in his second year; I don't think he just had his career year, I think he's a young, talented WR who will only get better. Mason is only 32 and still can be effective, and Heap is one of the top TEs in the league. The Ravens passing game was #13 in yardage and #13 in TDs last year. The only reason McNair didn't finish higher was that Boller put up 5 of the TDs in relief. Unless you're projecting significant time for Boller this season, you have to rank McNair higher than a bunch of the dreck in the lower teens.

 

[massraider]

honestly.injury followed by Boller taking over

Yep. Seems to have some nice matchups when some good QBs have byes, tho.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I've got McNair ranking 21st (18th if you only count one Eagles, Seahawks and Cardinals QB) last season in adjFP/adjG, which adjusts for games played and strength of schedule. Unless you're expecting big improvements out of McNair, Heap, Mason, Clayton or Williams, I don't see much of a reason to see a big jump.

Wouldn't you expect improvements out of McNair, given that he had almost no time to learn the offense last year? Clayton improved from 471/2 to 939/5 in his second year; I don't think he just had his career year, I think he's a young, talented WR who will only get better. Mason is only 32 and still can be effective, and Heap is one of the top TEs in the league. The Ravens passing game was #13 in yardage and #13 in TDs last year. The only reason McNair didn't finish higher was that Boller put up 5 of the TDs in relief. Unless you're projecting significant time for Boller this season, you have to rank McNair higher than a bunch of the dreck in the lower teens.

I adjusted McNair's numbers to reflect the 13.9 games that he actually played. I don't think it's fair to give him credit for Boller's 5 TDs.

 

[CalBear]

I've got McNair ranking 21st (18th if you only count one Eagles, Seahawks and Cardinals QB) last season in adjFP/adjG, which adjusts for games played and strength of schedule. Unless you're expecting big improvements out of McNair, Heap, Mason, Clayton or Williams, I don't see much of a reason to see a big jump.

Wouldn't you expect improvements out of McNair, given that he had almost no time to learn the offense last year? Clayton improved from 471/2 to 939/5 in his second year; I don't think he just had his career year, I think he's a young, talented WR who will only get better. Mason is only 32 and still can be effective, and Heap is one of the top TEs in the league. The Ravens passing game was #13 in yardage and #13 in TDs last year. The only reason McNair didn't finish higher was that Boller put up 5 of the TDs in relief. Unless you're projecting significant time for Boller this season, you have to rank McNair higher than a bunch of the dreck in the lower teens.

I adjusted McNair's numbers to reflect the 13.9 games that he actually played. I don't think it's fair to give him credit for Boller's 5 TDs.

Obviously he shouldn't get credit for Boller's stats, but what are you projecting for Boller? (By the way, Boller got a bum rap starting as a rookie on a team with no receivers; he has looked solid since coming back from injury in 2005. He could be effective as a starter if McNair goes down.)I'm mainly pointing out that the perception of the Ravens' pass offense as weak or stodgy is outdated. They were #13 in attempts as well as in yardage and TDs, and #17 in yards per attempt. Compare that to, say, the Niners, who were #30 in attempts, #29 in yardage, and #26 in TDs, and lost their two leading receivers. Still want to rank Smith above McNair?

 

[Chase Stuart]

I've got McNair ranking 21st (18th if you only count one Eagles, Seahawks and Cardinals QB) last season in adjFP/adjG, which adjusts for games played and strength of schedule. Unless you're expecting big improvements out of McNair, Heap, Mason, Clayton or Williams, I don't see much of a reason to see a big jump.

Wouldn't you expect improvements out of McNair, given that he had almost no time to learn the offense last year? Clayton improved from 471/2 to 939/5 in his second year; I don't think he just had his career year, I think he's a young, talented WR who will only get better. Mason is only 32 and still can be effective, and Heap is one of the top TEs in the league. The Ravens passing game was #13 in yardage and #13 in TDs last year. The only reason McNair didn't finish higher was that Boller put up 5 of the TDs in relief. Unless you're projecting significant time for Boller this season, you have to rank McNair higher than a bunch of the dreck in the lower teens.

I adjusted McNair's numbers to reflect the 13.9 games that he actually played. I don't think it's fair to give him credit for Boller's 5 TDs.

Obviously he shouldn't get credit for Boller's stats, but what are you projecting for Boller? (By the way, Boller got a bum rap starting as a rookie on a team with no receivers; he has looked solid since coming back from injury in 2005. He could be effective as a starter if McNair goes down.)I'm mainly pointing out that the perception of the Ravens' pass offense as weak or stodgy is outdated. They were #13 in attempts as well as in yardage and TDs, and #17 in yards per attempt. Compare that to, say, the Niners, who were #30 in attempts, #29 in yardage, and #26 in TDs, and lost their two leading receivers. Still want to rank Smith above McNair?

Smith ranked 37th on my list. I don't know why you'd want to bring him up. (He's 28th if you remove the backups, IIRC.)

 

[CalBear]

Smith ranked 37th on my list. I don't know why you'd want to bring him up. (He's 28th if you remove the backups, IIRC.)

The FBG consensus currently has Smith at #17 and McNair at #25; Dodds has them #16 and #24.To take another example, Baltimore's passing game was very similar to Carolina's in 2006, Delhomme is under more pressure than McNair (could get yanked, and also got injured), yet most everyone has Delhomme ranked ahead of McNair.

 

[turleyfan]

Haven't drafted yet, so Lord knows this may get thrown out the window when the time comes. But I see McNair as a great QB2, someone to pair with the Romo's / Delhomme's / Kitna's of the world. Sport start him while he's healthy, don't count on him, and send him the WW if / when he does get hurt.

Either that or take Mark Bradley as a WR6.

Seriously, men, we're not talking a fantasy starter here, but rather someone who could bail you out of a bye week or tough matchup, when healthy.

 

[bigreese82]

Does anyone think that the running game's possible ineffectiveness will equal more attempts for the Ravens offense? I am in the minority that thinks McNair will challenge for top 15. I see him throwing 17-20 TDs and running in another 2-3. That should be good enough for top 15