Median weekly ranks -- fantasy quarterbacks (1 Viewer)

[Chase Stuart]

There are lots of ways to look at fantasy quarterback production. One thing I like to look at is to see how productive a QB was on a weekly basis. Using a scoring system of 1/20, 5, -2, 1/10, 6, Mike Vick was a fantasy stud almost every week. In week 1, he was the 7th best QB. In week 2, he ranked 4th, and then 1st in week three. He got hurt in week 4 (27th ranking) and then was off the next four weeks. From there, he ranked 4, 1, 12, 7, 2, 5, 1 and 6 in the remaining weeks (he sat out week 17). Listed from best to worst, he ranked 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 4, 5, 6, 7, 7, 12, 27 in his 12 weeks. That means his median ranking in the games he played was 4.5 (six games at 4 or better, 6 games at 5 or lower). Not surprisingly, that was the best in the league.

The table below shows the median ranking for each week's rank for each QB that played in at least 6 games last year. In addition to showing the median rank and the number of games played, I'm also including a column which averages the ordinal ranks for each week. As a mathematical matter, averaging ordinal rankings can produce nonsensical results, but in this case, I think it helps to balance some of the inequities with median ranks. More below:

rk med avg gms name1 4.5 6.4 12 Michael Vick2 7.5 9.9 16 Peyton Manning3 8.0 10.4 16 Philip Rivers4 9.0 9.5 15 Aaron Rodgers5 9.5 14.8 14 David Garrard6 10.0 11.1 16 Tom Brady7 10.0 12.8 13 Kyle Orton8 11.0 10.8 16 Drew Brees9 11.5 11.8 12 Ben Roethlisberger10 12.0 13.8 16 Matt Schaub11 12.0 15.3 11 Shaun Hill12 12.0 15.6 15 Jay Cutler13 12.5 12.0 6 Tony Romo14 14.0 13.5 16 Matt Ryan15 14.0 15.3 16 Joe Flacco16 14.0 17.0 11 Jon Kitna17 14.5 14.0 16 Eli Manning18 14.5 14.9 16 Josh Freeman19 15.0 14.0 13 Ryan Fitzpatrick20 16.5 16.1 16 Carson Palmer21 17.0 16.5 15 Matt Cassel22 17.0 16.8 13 Donovan McNabb23 18.0 18.0 13 Jason Campbell24 18.5 20.2 14 Matt Hasselbeck25 19.0 20.3 6 Drew Stanton26 19.5 18.9 16 Sam Bradford27 20.5 19.7 16 Mark Sanchez28 20.5 21.5 8 Colt McCoy29 21.0 18.2 11 Alex Smith30 21.0 19.0 10 Kerry Collins31 21.0 21.6 7 Kevin Kolb32 21.5 20.2 6 Troy Smith33 22.0 22.3 6 Bruce Gradkowski34 23.0 20.5 15 Chad Henne35 25.0 24.3 6 Matt Moore36 25.5 24.6 12 Derek Anderson37 26.0 21.7 9 Vince Young38 27.0 22.9 9 Tim Tebow39 27.0 25.1 13 Brett Favre40 28.0 28.8 13 Jimmy Clausen41 29.0 22.7 6 Rex Grossman42 30.5 27.5 6 Charlie Whitehurst43 30.5 30.1 8 Seneca Wallace44 33.0 33.7 6 Max Hall45 34.0 30.1 7 Matt Flynn46 35.0 35.3 13 Chase Daniel47 35.0 35.5 11 Josh Johnson48 36.5 36.7 12 Sage Rosenfels
The biggest stunner up front is David Garrard, but more on him later. Guys like Eli Manning, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan had good season ending numbers, but weren't all that productive on a week-to-week basis. On the other hand, Shaun Hill and Kyle Orton were impressive last year; the Den and Det QB spots are intriguing, although Denver does appear to be less attractive this year (Fox instead of McDaniels, better D, uncertainty at the position).

Is there a more overhyped fantasy QB than Sam Bradford? In eleven of his sixteen starts, he ranked 19th or lowest in FP production that week. Mark Sanchez wasn't much better, ranking 19th or lowest in 10 of 16 games (to be fair, we should scratch his week 17 performance, as everyone knew he wasn't going to see any action, although that doesn't really improve things too much).

We all know Matt Cassel had a really easy schedule, but his fantasy performance was made by it. In eight of his 15 starts, he ranked outside of the top 15 in that week.

Ben Roethlisberger started only 12 games, but he was a top-seven QB in half of those starts; on the flip side, he ranked 16th or lower in the other half.

Ryan Fitzpatrick had some clunkers (250-0-3 vs. NE, 158-1-1 vs. MIN, 146-1 vs. Det) but was a top-16 QB in the other 10 of his 13 starts. Over half of his starts placed in him the QB12-QB16 range, in addition to the clunkers, three games where he ranked 5th or 6th, and the "he did what?" 374-4 performance against Baltimore that left him as QB1. It's hard to get super excited about a guy like Fitzpatrick, but he seems like a decent gap filler in QB2 leagues.

How bad was it in Arizona? Derek Anderson was QB10 in the season opener. That was the last time any Cardinals quarterback had a top-15 fantasy ranking all season. Outside of Matt Moore's 308-2 performance against SF, Carolina failed to place a QB in the top 15 in any other week.

Strong finishers: Tim Tebow ranked 8th, 8th and 1st in his three starts. Everyone's favorite whipping boy, Rex Grossman, put up top-five numbers in weeks 15 and 17.

The rankings are interesting, although some of the surprises in median ranks make more sense when you look at the average rankings.

Strong average rankings: Tony Romo (13th place by looking at median ranks, 8th place in average ranks), Aaron Rodgers (4, 2), Drew Brees (8, 5) all jump a bit using the average ranks. For Romo, he ranked in the top 14 in all five weeks he played and finished the game -- he ranked 13, 14, 12, 2, 4 and 27 in his six starts. Brees' consistency was incredible, ranking in the top 16 in each of his first 14 games. Rodgers had six weeks where he ranked in the top 3, and his only real clunker (outside of the Detroit game where he was injured) was against the Jets.

Weak average rankings: David Garrard's fifth-place finish in median ranks was a real headscratcher, but he ranked only 14th in an average of his weekly ranks. That's because in five of his 14 starts, he ranked outside of the top 20, include three weeks where he ranked 28th or lower. He was pretty boom or bust last season, with eight top-ten weeks (although only two of those were top-five), one 17th-place finish, and then a handful of clunkers. Don't let Jay Cutler's solid ranking fool you. He finished 16th or lower in 7 of 15 starts, including four starts where he ranked 27th, 30th, 32nd and 32nd.

 

[Wadsworth]

On the other hand, Shaun Hill and Kyle Orton were impressive last year; the Den and Det QB spots are intriguing, although Denver does appear to be less attractive this year (Fox instead of McDaniels, better D, uncertainty at the position). Is there a more overhyped fantasy QB than Sam Bradford? In eleven of his sixteen starts, he ranked 19th or lowest in FP production that week. Strong finishers: Tim Tebow ranked 8th, 8th and 1st in his three starts. Everyone's favorite whipping boy, Rex Grossman, put up top-five numbers in weeks 15 and 17.

It's going to be interesting to see what happens with Denver and St Louis this season. Denver did not seem to be an appealing QB situation going into last season yet if you started the Denver QB every week you'd have done quite well. The McDaniels factors does make Bradford interesting as a QB2 with an upside, but with all the hype he'll likely be drafted before that's an option.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Guess there is not much interest in this sort of stuff.

 

[Tau837]

Guess there is not much interest in this sort of stuff.

I'm interested. Please post more in the Shark Pool.

 

[Saint]

Interesting Chase.

A few tidbits I gleam out of this:

Looking at this setup, I am more intrigued where Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton are placed. For those of us waiting on QB, it makes me wonder if Matt Stafford (if he stays healthy) would produce top 10 fantasy numbers in the Detroit System. If Hill/Stanton both looked good, and I think it can be argued that Stafford's potential greatly exceeds Hill and Stanton, it may be a sign that the system favors QBs.

The other interesting one to me is Matt Ryan. I thought he was more consistent and he is steadily moving up the chain.



Out of curiosity:

This is based on production last year. Is there a way we can rate the QB production in regards to the OLine grading? With the free agency taking place and changes in the OLines for some squad, I have to think that also has an effect upon QB production. Manning has one of the best Oline's in the business, and he has time to make the accurate throws, whereas some of the other folks don't... Again, amazing how consistent Vick was knowing that the Eagles Oline was horrible for the first half of the season.

 

[Jail]

I liked it. Validated my feeling slightly that people are jumping the gun a bit on Bradford. Not that I think he sucks, but I just think the adoration is premature.

I would be curious to see a stat that tells us percentage of top 5 and top 10 finishes as a percentage of games that they played.

 

[rzrback77]

Excellent post that highlights consistency as well as top production. Both factors are huge to insuring fantasy success.

 

[Fighting Noles]

Interesting Chase.

A few tidbits I gleam out of this:

Looking at this setup, I am more intrigued where Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton are placed. For those of us waiting on QB, it makes me wonder if Matt Stafford (if he stays healthy) would produce top 10 fantasy numbers in the Detroit System. If Hill/Stanton both looked good, and I think it can be argued that Stafford's potential greatly exceeds Hill and Stanton, it may be a sign that the system favors QBs.

The other interesting one to me is Matt Ryan. I thought he was more consistent and he is steadily moving up the chain.



Out of curiosity:

This is based on production last year. Is there a way we can rate the QB production in regards to the OLine grading? With the free agency taking place and changes in the OLines for some squad, I have to think that also has an effect upon QB production. Manning has one of the best Oline's in the business, and he has time to make the accurate throws, whereas some of the other folks don't... Again, amazing how consistent Vick was knowing that the Eagles Oline was horrible for the first half of the season.

I think the way the year unfolded for the Lions may say more about the #'s than the system there. Best developed turf toe pretty early in the year & the running game was fairly non-existent after that. Plus, the defense was very poor to start the year (& for most of it in NFL terms, not FF), so Detroit was always playing from behind. The same scenario played out somewhat in Denver also (although McDaniels system definitely played into it).I think the Lions have tried to address this in the offseason, but the LeShoure injury clearly won't help things. Not sure yet how serious Farleys' injury is, but that can't help. The LB play should be improved but the secondary is still a ?...I also don't think Mannings' Colt line is that good anymore. He simply gets rid of the ball so damn fast & again their run game was abysmal last year with Addai hurt & Brown awful.

I like any of your "stat" articles Chase - so please keep them coming!

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

On the other hand, Shaun Hill and Kyle Orton were impressive last year; the Den and Det QB spots are intriguing, although Denver does appear to be less attractive this year (Fox instead of McDaniels, better D, uncertainty at the position). Is there a more overhyped fantasy QB than Sam Bradford? In eleven of his sixteen starts, he ranked 19th or lowest in FP production that week. Strong finishers: Tim Tebow ranked 8th, 8th and 1st in his three starts. Everyone's favorite whipping boy, Rex Grossman, put up top-five numbers in weeks 15 and 17.

It's going to be interesting to see what happens with Denver and St Louis this season. Denver did not seem to be an appealing QB situation going into last season yet if you started the Denver QB every week you'd have done quite well. The McDaniels factors does make Bradford interesting as a QB2 with an upside, but with all the hype he'll likely be drafted before that's an option.

I disagree completely with the Bradford comment. Hes not a guy who you can look at the numbers with. He was a rookie, with nothing around him(other than SJax and a mediocre line), throwing 30 times a game... Yea, I mean you can look at the numbers and say hes mediocre. But when you really sit down and watch this guy, the type of accuracy he has is elite, you can put it on the board, yes! Am I a biased Rams fan? yes. Do I love Sam Bradford? yes. Do I want to push as much positive in there general direction as I can? yes. But, I know what I sawTop QBs in Da league (put da team on da back du)1. Brady2. Manning3. Rodgers4. Brees5.Rivers6. Bradfordhttp://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=558879&st=0&p=12351759&fromsearch=1entry12351759I said top ten by the end of the year, But I'd say hes 6th right about now. Fantasy MIght take one more year but hes a low end QB1 this year for sure. The offense is much more potent this year:The system: I loved Shurmur actually, but I dont think anyone can compete with McDaniels as an Offensive coordinator.Tight end: I feel like I have said this a million times, Lance Kendricks is gonna be a player guys. One of a few sure handed, reliable targets that quite frankly, weren't there last year. Line : Another year to gel with Smith, Brown and Saffold. All emerging as very solid players. Plus, the addition of hard working, Harvey Dahl. Me likeyWide Recievers: Well, Still not proud of this bunch, but you cannot even compare this situation to last year. The Rams 2011 draft told me one thing. They are trying real hard to find reliable targets for Sammy(salas, Pettis, Kendricks). personally, I like it. I love the addition of Sims-Walker also. The common negative theme of this bunch seems to be they are all injury prone,Luckily they stock piled on them ( Avery,Danarrio, Salas, Pettis, Amendola,Gilyard, Gibson). 7 of them to be exact. Your guess is as good as mine as to whos gonna start, but he will have more reliable hands last year.