Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Player Page Link: Michael Turner Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

This guy is on my do not draft list. He had his run, but that time is over. Atlanta is turning into a pass first offense, ultizing the last several years of roddy white being good and Julio jones explosiveness. I just think Turner has no burst left. He'll probably have a 3 TD game at some point, but he isn't a top 10 or even 15 back for me.

250/1024/8

 

[Wyld Stallyns]

He'll be drafted as a RB2 for the first time since his first year in Atlanta and he'll put up fine RB2 numbers for his owners. We all know he isn't what he used to be, that the Falcon offense has shifted to a passing attack, that Jacquizz figures to eat into some of his touches this year, and so on and so forth - BUT, at the end of the day he's still the primary back on a potent offense and a lock for goal line carries. I think his touches scale back to the 260 range conservatively, and his yardage and average both take significant hits - but that he'll still deliver double-digit TDs as the Atlanta offense takes another step towards upper-echelon status.

265/1087/12

 

[mr roboto]

This guy is on my do not draft list. He had his run, but that time is over. Atlanta is turning into a pass first offense, ultizing the last several years of roddy white being good and Julio jones explosiveness. I just think Turner has no burst left. He'll probably have a 3 TD game at some point, but he isn't a top 10 or even 15 back for me.250/1024/8

How are those #s a 'do not draft'? I'm assuming in the 4-5 rounds you'd think about it.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

This guy is on my do not draft list. He had his run, but that time is over. Atlanta is turning into a pass first offense, ultizing the last several years of roddy white being good and Julio jones explosiveness. I just think Turner has no burst left. He'll probably have a 3 TD game at some point, but he isn't a top 10 or even 15 back for me.250/1024/8

How are those #s a 'do not draft'? I'm assuming in the 4-5 rounds you'd think about it.

I'll always already have 2 rb's by then. I want no part of him.

 

[sspunisher]

This guy is on my do not draft list.

He was also on my do not draft list until I saw his schedule. I'll most likely have 2 RBs by the time I'm in Turner Territory so most likely I'll be passing. But IF I don't have 2 RBs, and IF he slides, and IF all of my players happen to be off the board, I'll settle for him.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

This guy is on my do not draft list.

He was also on my do not draft list until I saw his schedule. I'll most likely have 2 RBs by the time I'm in Turner Territory so most likely I'll be passing. But IF I don't have 2 RBs, and IF he slides, and IF all of my players happen to be off the board, I'll settle for him.

Micheal Turner is the fat chick with a cute face when last call goes down. Not desirable.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

2011 = 318 touches. 1508 yards. 4.5 a carry. 11tds.

30 years old, and obviously a step slower. But he has a fine team he plays for and a proven track record.

2012 = 271 touches. 1200 yards. 4.25 a carry. 10tds.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

I'd love to grab him Round 4/5 as a RB2 (Frankly I'd much rather have him outright in 2012 than Marshawn Lynch / Frank Gore. Both of whom I think will be drafted higher)

250 1100 10 TD

That's factoring in that I think Quizz will almost double his # of touches from 2011. (100 carries / 40-50 catches). I didn't find Quizz that impressive running the ball, but they'd be foolish not to use him more in pass game as an added dimension in the offense.

 

[Borden]

Rushing: 275/1250/13

Receiving 40/300/3 *Edited

I think he has one more season in the tank of good numbers. Plays on a team that defenses' have to respect the pass and plays in a division of with weak defenses. Also, I don't Jacquizz Rodgers will take away many carries.

 

[SproutDaddy]

Rushing: 275/1250/13 Receiving 55/350/3I think he has one more season in the tank of good numbers. Plays on a team that defenses' have to respect the pass and plays in a division of with weak defenses. Also, I don't Jacquizz Rodgers will take away many carries.

How does he catch more passes this year than he's had in his career?

 

[Borden]

Rushing: 275/1250/13 Receiving 40/300/3 *Edited I think he has one more season in the tank of good numbers. Plays on a team that defenses' have to respect the pass and plays in a division of with weak defenses. Also, I don't Jacquizz Rodgers will take away many carries.

How does he catch more passes this year than he's had in his career?

Yes. Atlanta has so much talent between Roddy and Julio that Turner should be able to sneak out of the back field and pick up a lot of check downs. However, those numbers probably high and I'll edit them down. Good point.

 

[Sabertooth]

I think this thread should be the Turner and Rodgers thread similar to the DeAngelo and Stewart thread. I agree this offense is transitioning. However I think a new OC is going to stagnate them this season. I don't see any more production from a total yards standpoint than last season. But perhaps some of the yardage slides to the passing side of the ledger, thus lessening the run.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Q and A with Falcons center Todd McClure

Q. Can you describe the new offensive coordinator [Dirk Koetter]?

A. You can see right now we have explosive guys on the edge and the perimeter. We’d like to get them the ball. Dirk is doing some great things with the offense. Obviously we want to get better with our screen game. We haven’t been too good in that area lately. We are putting a big emphasis on that and you can already see some of the things we are doing we are going to have some big plays in the screen game.

Q. With the screen game are there differences techniques?

A. We are emphasizing those things and there are different coaching points that maybe we haven’t heard in the past or different ways that we are executing. Blocking schemes on our screens, I think, are going to be real beneficial for us and make us better. As offensive lineman we love to have a screen game that the [opposing] defensive line has to respect. They are not just pinning their ears back and rushing the quarterback. It’s an offensive lineman’s friend having a screen game going and we will get it going.

http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-falcons-blog/2012/06/11/q-and-a-with-falcons-center-todd-mcclure/?cxntfid=blogs_atlanta_falcons_blog

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

Q and A with Falcons center Todd McClureQ. Can you describe the new offensive coordinator [Dirk Koetter]?A. You can see right now we have explosive guys on the edge and the perimeter. We’d like to get them the ball. Dirk is doing some great things with the offense. Obviously we want to get better with our screen game. We haven’t been too good in that area lately. We are putting a big emphasis on that and you can already see some of the things we are doing we are going to have some big plays in the screen game.Q. With the screen game are there differences techniques?A. We are emphasizing those things and there are different coaching points that maybe we haven’t heard in the past or different ways that we are executing. Blocking schemes on our screens, I think, are going to be real beneficial for us and make us better. As offensive lineman we love to have a screen game that the [opposing] defensive line has to respect. They are not just pinning their ears back and rushing the quarterback. It’s an offensive lineman’s friend having a screen game going and we will get it going.http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-falcons-blog/2012/06/11/q-and-a-with-falcons-center-todd-mcclure/?cxntfid=blogs_atlanta_falcons_blog

Honestly, that sounds like Quizz is going to be having a much larger role. Turner just isn't suited to that style of play.

 

[SproutDaddy]

Rushing: 275/1250/13 Receiving 40/300/3 *Edited I think he has one more season in the tank of good numbers. Plays on a team that defenses' have to respect the pass and plays in a division of with weak defenses. Also, I don't Jacquizz Rodgers will take away many carries.

How does he catch more passes this year than he's had in his career?

Yes. Atlanta has so much talent between Roddy and Julio that Turner should be able to sneak out of the back field and pick up a lot of check downs. However, those numbers probably high and I'll edit them down. Good point.

He's never caught 20 balls in a season.

 

[5Rings]

216-890-8td. 4-22-0.

He'll have his moments, but its going to be hard to predict when. Like most, I see the Falcons taking to the air and using Burner in more of a closer role.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

For a guy who over the previous 2 seasons put up an average of 1482 YFS & 11.5 TD’s…Michael Turner sure does appear to be radioactive as far as fantasy circles are concerned. What I don’t understand completely is why…?

I get that he no longer looks explosive. But as far as RB’s with more than 200 carries last season (19), Turner finished 7th in terms of number of % of carries that resulted in 20+ yard runs (3.7%). Marshawn Lynch has made it to being drafted in the late 1st round. Turner is dropping to the beginning of Round 3. But their production was remarkably similar; 1416/13 to 1508/10. Turner actually showed a decent ability to catch the ball last season for his first time as a Falcon. While he won’t ever excel in this area, 2008-2010 almost gave the indication that he was allergic to catching the football ala Shonn Greene.

While the Falcons have given off signals that they plan to de-emphasize Turner in 2012, they did this last season too via a 10% reduction in carries. Will the Falcons incorporate Jacquizz Rodgers into their overall offensive structure more in 2012? Yes…but if anyone is forecasting Turner to come it at a significantly lower level of carries than 300, I think they are off-base. 275 is going to be his floor. IMO, the de-emphasizing of Turner has more to with how he’s used relating to what down and distance and situations he’ll be on the field for versus just workload. As an FYI, 53.8% of Turner’s touches the last 2 seasons have come on 1st & 10. Generally, you’ll see RB’s with numbers more in the 47-49% range. A guy like LeSean McCoy is down at the 42% range.

A lot of folks believe that with the removal of Mike Mularkey as OC, that the Falcons are going to pass more. But this is a team that has dropped back to pass an average of 610 times the past two seasons. Number of attempts isn’t the issue here. Passing efficiency is and overall offensive predictability is. IMO, the goal for the Falcons is to produce more per pass versus more passing. Under Mularkey, the Falcons have been amongst the league leaders in offensive plays, never finishing lower than 4th in this category since 2009 with the goal of producing long sustained drives. This is a good mentality to have to be sure, but if you continually do this at the expense of quick strike, big play ability … when you are behind, it’s an uphill climb back into the game which has been a hallmark of the Falcons playoff failures because it’s not in the Falcons comfort zone. The lack of the Falcons offensive diversity has started to become too evident.

I think Jacquizz can contribute on all 3 downs, but the goal for him will still be situational or play specific. The Falcons will have packages that will exploit his abilities that can be used on any down, but I don’t see his time on the field eclipsing 40%. As for Snelling…I think he acts as a nice insurance policy for the Falcons should Turner go down…but he’s essentially the same style of player without the speed.

At the end of the day, Turner is probably going a half a round too low for my liking and I’d be comfortable spending a mid-2nd on the guy. He’ll still be a bellcow type back for the Falcons and he’s THE guy inside the 5.

Prediction: 281 Rushes; 1217 Rushing Yards, 12 TD’s; 22 Receptions, 154 Receiving Yards

 

[FF Ninja]

What is this round 4/5 talk? The most recent ADP has him at 35.

Turner's slip in value is due to his lack of upside. In fantasy football everyone wants to draft a guy who is going to blow up. I think we all know that Turner's best FF days are behind him. You are drafting a guy who has had a heavy workload and appears to have no top gear anymore. It is hard to imagine getting much more in 2012 from him than 80% of 2011. And that's best case. Worst case is the wheels fall off and you are left thinking, "how could I NOT have seen his coming?!" I guess there might be an extreme optimist out there who thinks maybe he's the next Curtis Martin, but I doubt it.

Beyond the age and the wear and tear, the Falcons lost their OC so there is some uncertainty. Maybe he gets used quite a bit less. One thing I'm reasonably sure about is that it would be hard for the Falcons to pass more. Lots of people think this is going to turn into a pure passing team, but I'd argue that they already were. And it's not like Matt Ryan is Peyton Manning. I think this team will run the ball 400 times again this year and you'd have to think Turner will get at least 250 of those carries and all the goal line looks.

Given his company at RB17, he seems like a safe bet to outperform his ADP but if and only if he doesn't break down. The 3 guys ahead of him are SJax (also about ready for a steep decline), Sproles (a niche player relying on the big play), and FJax (likely splitting time with a 9th overall pick). Guys you'd likely be thinking about when picking Turner: Bradshaw (historically gimpy with rookie competition), Gore (also historically gimpy with a likely reduced role), R.Bush (durability questions and extremely suspect offense), and Beanie (gimpy with Ryan Williams back to compete with). These guys all have their questions, but when weighing all the situation, I don't think you'll find another guy in this range with as good of a combination of work load and team offense.

If I'm drafting at the end of the 3rd and need a RB, I like Turner out of that group. It is not like he averaged 3.9 ypc last year. Even if he sees a drop off from 4.5 to 4.0 and he only gets 250 carries, that's still 60 yards a game with a really good chance of a touchdown. There's always a chance that the new OC will let him catch some passes, too.

270 carries x 4.0 ypc = 1080 yds 10 TD, 20 rec x 7.0 ypr = 140 yds 0 TD

 

[FF Ninja]

I should point out that when I initially thought about Turner I was thinking "do not draft" but after looking at it, I think his situation is appealing for the price.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

I should point out that when I initially thought about Turner I was thinking "do not draft" but after looking at it, I think his situation is appealing for the price.

My theory is pretty simple on Turner...don't draft someone you don't like. Don't hitch your wagon to someone you don't believe in. If you want an RB who is just going to get the carries and goal line looks, the much more preferable option would be BJGE in the 6th or seventh or even Shonn Greene later. Spend your high picks on guys who can single handedly win you a week.

 

[Sabertooth]

What is this round 4/5 talk? The most recent ADP has him at 35.Turner's slip in value is due to his lack of upside. In fantasy football everyone wants to draft a guy who is going to blow up. I think we all know that Turner's best FF days are behind him. You are drafting a guy who has had a heavy workload and appears to have no top gear anymore. It is hard to imagine getting much more in 2012 from him than 80% of 2011. And that's best case. Worst case is the wheels fall off and you are left thinking, "how could I NOT have seen his coming?!" I guess there might be an extreme optimist out there who thinks maybe he's the next Curtis Martin, but I doubt it. Beyond the age and the wear and tear, the Falcons lost their OC so there is some uncertainty. Maybe he gets used quite a bit less. One thing I'm reasonably sure about is that it would be hard for the Falcons to pass more. Lots of people think this is going to turn into a pure passing team, but I'd argue that they already were. And it's not like Matt Ryan is Peyton Manning. I think this team will run the ball 400 times again this year and you'd have to think Turner will get at least 250 of those carries and all the goal line looks. Given his company at RB17, he seems like a safe bet to outperform his ADP but if and only if he doesn't break down. The 3 guys ahead of him are SJax (also about ready for a steep decline), Sproles (a niche player relying on the big play), and FJax (likely splitting time with a 9th overall pick). Guys you'd likely be thinking about when picking Turner: Bradshaw (historically gimpy with rookie competition), Gore (also historically gimpy with a likely reduced role), R.Bush (durability questions and extremely suspect offense), and Beanie (gimpy with Ryan Williams back to compete with). These guys all have their questions, but when weighing all the situation, I don't think you'll find another guy in this range with as good of a combination of work load and team offense.If I'm drafting at the end of the 3rd and need a RB, I like Turner out of that group. It is not like he averaged 3.9 ypc last year. Even if he sees a drop off from 4.5 to 4.0 and he only gets 250 carries, that's still 60 yards a game with a really good chance of a touchdown. There's always a chance that the new OC will let him catch some passes, too.270 carries x 4.0 ypc = 1080 yds 10 TD, 20 rec x 7.0 ypr = 140 yds 0 TD

This is a very good posting. You have me rethinking him quite a bit in dynasty with this post. I was originally thinking about going the Sjax/Pead, McGahee/Hillman, Fjax/Spiller type of route. Locking in the "washed up" guy at below average cost with the backup at a bargain too. But I think I have to value Turner and Quiz right there with those guys, albeit at the tail end (Snelling is going to get something too). Your post swayed me.240 carries1050 yards8 touchdowns25 catches200 yards1 touchdown

 

[hauser42]

Turner is still going to be a steady back, more a RB2 at this point in his career. Big rushing games are going to be less the norm going foward. Turner should still get his share of TD as this team will be in the redzone and Turner is the bull inside the 5 yard line. Team passing deeper and taking more shots in the air to the endzone will make for more pass interfence in endzone and balls at the 1 yard line. Turner will gobble up these chances and punch the ball in. We have seen in the past older backs on high power offenses come threw with big years. Gerald Riggs for the Redskins, proved that oppurtunity is all that is needed.

 

[FF Ninja]

I should point out that when I initially thought about Turner I was thinking "do not draft" but after looking at it, I think his situation is appealing for the price.

My theory is pretty simple on Turner...don't draft someone you don't like. Don't hitch your wagon to someone you don't believe in. If you want an RB who is just going to get the carries and goal line looks, the much more preferable option would be BJGE in the 6th or seventh or even Shonn Greene later. Spend your high picks on guys who can single handedly win you a week.

That's how everyone is thinking. Otherwise, a guy who will almost certainly get 250-300 carries and 10+ TD would not be slipping to the end of the 3rd round. Look at the RBs around his ADP and tell me which of those guys "can single handedly win you a week"?(sorry in advance for the formatting)

Consensus Name Team Pos Expert MFL Calc RTS CBS ESPN

27 (-1) Steven Jackson STL RB 14 (-2) 28 40 26 27 15 24

31 (+9) Darren Sproles NO RB 15 (+4) 56 32 31 15 31 38

34 (+4) Fred Jackson BUF RB 16 (+2) 38 50 23 32 30 33

35 (-2) Michael Turner ATL RB 17 (-1) 40 42 29 37 18 40

37 (-5) Ahmad Bradshaw NYG RB 18 (-3) 41 39 34 26 27 41

39 (-3) Frank Gore SF RB 19 (-2) 37 46 37 36 37 26

47 (+3) Reggie Bush MIA RB 20 60 59 46 47 44 42

52 (+6) Chris Wells ARI RB 21 (+1) 63 65 58 45 39 64

54 (-1) Roy Helu WAS RB 22 (-1) 72 70 53 43 60 39

62 (+6) BenJarvus Green-Ellis CIN RB 23 65 80 44 54 63 67

63 (+6) Shonn Greene NYJ RB 24 58 72 60 56 57 74

I would also like to point out that BJGE is going just a hair over 2 rounds later than Turner and will likely not sniff 200 carries or 10 TD. Green might and I really like his value there, but he looked at risk of losing his job last year. Turner's job security is solid. To be honest, if I was really strong in other positions via picks 1, 2, 4, & 5, I would not be sad if my RB1 and RB2 were Turner + Greene. (disclaimer: I don't play ppr if I can help it)

 

[Sabertooth]

I should point out that when I initially thought about Turner I was thinking "do not draft" but after looking at it, I think his situation is appealing for the price.

My theory is pretty simple on Turner...don't draft someone you don't like. Don't hitch your wagon to someone you don't believe in. If you want an RB who is just going to get the carries and goal line looks, the much more preferable option would be BJGE in the 6th or seventh or even Shonn Greene later. Spend your high picks on guys who can single handedly win you a week.

That's how everyone is thinking. Otherwise, a guy who will almost certainly get 250-300 carries and 10+ TD would not be slipping to the end of the 3rd round. Look at the RBs around his ADP and tell me which of those guys "can single handedly win you a week"?(sorry in advance for the formatting)

Consensus Name Team Pos Expert MFL Calc RTS CBS ESPN

27 (-1) Steven Jackson STL RB 14 (-2) 28 40 26 27 15 24

31 (+9) Darren Sproles NO RB 15 (+4) 56 32 31 15 31 38

34 (+4) Fred Jackson BUF RB 16 (+2) 38 50 23 32 30 33

35 (-2) Michael Turner ATL RB 17 (-1) 40 42 29 37 18 40

37 (-5) Ahmad Bradshaw NYG RB 18 (-3) 41 39 34 26 27 41

39 (-3) Frank Gore SF RB 19 (-2) 37 46 37 36 37 26

47 (+3) Reggie Bush MIA RB 20 60 59 46 47 44 42

52 (+6) Chris Wells ARI RB 21 (+1) 63 65 58 45 39 64

54 (-1) Roy Helu WAS RB 22 (-1) 72 70 53 43 60 39

62 (+6) BenJarvus Green-Ellis CIN RB 23 65 80 44 54 63 67

63 (+6) Shonn Greene NYJ RB 24 58 72 60 56 57 74

I would also like to point out that BJGE is going just a hair over 2 rounds later than Turner and will likely not sniff 200 carries or 10 TD. Green might and I really like his value there, but he looked at risk of losing his job last year. Turner's job security is solid. To be honest, if I was really strong in other positions via picks 1, 2, 4, & 5, I would not be sad if my RB1 and RB2 were Turner + Greene. (disclaimer: I don't play ppr if I can help it)

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

I should point out that when I initially thought about Turner I was thinking "do not draft" but after looking at it, I think his situation is appealing for the price.

My theory is pretty simple on Turner...don't draft someone you don't like. Don't hitch your wagon to someone you don't believe in. If you want an RB who is just going to get the carries and goal line looks, the much more preferable option would be BJGE in the 6th or seventh or even Shonn Greene later. Spend your high picks on guys who can single handedly win you a week.

That's how everyone is thinking. Otherwise, a guy who will almost certainly get 250-300 carries and 10+ TD would not be slipping to the end of the 3rd round. Look at the RBs around his ADP and tell me which of those guys "can single handedly win you a week"?(sorry in advance for the formatting)

Consensus Name Team Pos Expert MFL Calc RTS CBS ESPN

27 (-1) Steven Jackson STL RB 14 (-2) 28 40 26 27 15 24

31 (+9) Darren Sproles NO RB 15 (+4) 56 32 31 15 31 38

34 (+4) Fred Jackson BUF RB 16 (+2) 38 50 23 32 30 33

35 (-2) Michael Turner ATL RB 17 (-1) 40 42 29 37 18 40

37 (-5) Ahmad Bradshaw NYG RB 18 (-3) 41 39 34 26 27 41

39 (-3) Frank Gore SF RB 19 (-2) 37 46 37 36 37 26

47 (+3) Reggie Bush MIA RB 20 60 59 46 47 44 42

52 (+6) Chris Wells ARI RB 21 (+1) 63 65 58 45 39 64

54 (-1) Roy Helu WAS RB 22 (-1) 72 70 53 43 60 39

62 (+6) BenJarvus Green-Ellis CIN RB 23 65 80 44 54 63 67

63 (+6) Shonn Greene NYJ RB 24 58 72 60 56 57 74

I would also like to point out that BJGE is going just a hair over 2 rounds later than Turner and will likely not sniff 200 carries or 10 TD. Green might and I really like his value there, but he looked at risk of losing his job last year. Turner's job security is solid. To be honest, if I was really strong in other positions via picks 1, 2, 4, & 5, I would not be sad if my RB1 and RB2 were Turner + Greene. (disclaimer: I don't play ppr if I can help it)

If Turner and Shonn Greene were my running backs, I would fully expect to have a losing season.

 

[FF Ninja]

If Turner and Shonn Greene were my running backs, I would fully expect to have a losing season.

Through 6 rounds:QB1 Rivers (5)WR1 Calvin (1)WR2 Bryant/Austin (4)TE1 Graham/Gronk (2)RB1 Turner (3)RB2 Greene (6)Sabertooth, SJax has to be closer to the end than Turner and hasn't scored double digit TDs since 2006. FJackson is going to be splitting time with Spiller. Sproles hit his career highs with 9 TD and 1300 yds last year. He won't hit it again and I think we all know this. Turner just finished a 1500+ yard 11 TD season which could be reproduced. Gore will see a reduced workload. Helu had a couple big games last year. IMO, Turner is as likely to win you a week with two 1-yard plunges as any of these guys are.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

If Turner and Shonn Greene were my running backs, I would fully expect to have a losing season.

Through 6 rounds:QB1 Rivers (5)WR1 Calvin (1)WR2 Bryant/Austin (4)TE1 Graham/Gronk (2)RB1 Turner (3)RB2 Greene (6)Sabertooth, SJax has to be closer to the end than Turner and hasn't scored double digit TDs since 2006. FJackson is going to be splitting time with Spiller. Sproles hit his career highs with 9 TD and 1300 yds last year. He won't hit it again and I think we all know this. Turner just finished a 1500+ yard 11 TD season which could be reproduced. Gore will see a reduced workload. Helu had a couple big games last year. IMO, Turner is as likely to win you a week with two 1-yard plunges as any of these guys are.

Personally, I believe both Graham/Gronk are due for some serious regression to the mean. Additionally, I think what we saw from Rivers last year might actually be who he is. No more V-Jax, declining Gates. Regardless, still would hate to have Turner as my RB1.

 

[FF Ninja]

Personally, I believe both Graham/Gronk are due for some serious regression to the mean. Additionally, I think what we saw from Rivers last year might actually be who he is. No more V-Jax, declining Gates. Regardless, still would hate to have Turner as my RB1.

I think you are missing the point, but to be honest, I wouldn't draft Rivers, either. Too much talent available late (I prefer Big Ben [QB15] paired with Palmer [QB20] or Fitzpatrick [QB21]). I was just trying to pick some popular shark pool guys, but the point I was trying to make is that you could load up at other positions to offset starting RB17 and RB24 as your RB1 and RB2. You don't have to have a top 5 ADP RB to win. If you end up with RB12 and RB18 production out of your RB17 and RB24 then you probably did pretty well so long as your other players simply performed on par with their ADPs. I think that you are likely to see 500+ carries and 16+ TDs out of Turner and Greene, which will be a lot more than most people get out of their RB1 + RB2 and they'll have spent quite a bit more on them.For comparison sake, last year, the RB12 finished with 1381 yds and 7 TD (rush + rec) for 180.1 pts. Turner had 1508 and 11 and Greene had 1260 and 6 for 216.8 pts and 162 pts respectively. FWIW, Greene actually finished as RB18 last year yet he can be had at a RB24 price. Turner was RB6 available for RB17.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

Personally, I believe both Graham/Gronk are due for some serious regression to the mean. Additionally, I think what we saw from Rivers last year might actually be who he is. No more V-Jax, declining Gates. Regardless, still would hate to have Turner as my RB1.

I think you are missing the point, but to be honest, I wouldn't draft Rivers, either. Too much talent available late (I prefer Big Ben [QB15] paired with Palmer [QB20] or Fitzpatrick [QB21]). I was just trying to pick some popular shark pool guys, but the point I was trying to make is that you could load up at other positions to offset starting RB17 and RB24 as your RB1 and RB2. You don't have to have a top 5 ADP RB to win. If you end up with RB12 and RB18 production out of your RB17 and RB24 then you probably did pretty well so long as your other players simply performed on par with their ADPs. I think that you are likely to see 500+ carries and 16+ TDs out of Turner and Greene, which will be a lot more than most people get out of their RB1 + RB2 and they'll have spent quite a bit more on them.For comparison sake, last year, the RB12 finished with 1381 yds and 7 TD (rush + rec) for 180.1 pts. Turner had 1508 and 11 and Greene had 1260 and 6 for 216.8 pts and 162 pts respectively. FWIW, Greene actually finished as RB18 last year yet he can be had at a RB24 price. Turner was RB6 available for RB17.

My general point is that I think Turner won't come close to duplicating last season or giving you RB17. I'm just not a fan of his situation, the talent around him and his talent.

 

[dickey moe]

Rushing: 275/1250/13 Receiving 55/350/3I think he has one more season in the tank of good numbers. Plays on a team that defenses' have to respect the pass and plays in a division of with weak defenses. Also, I don't Jacquizz Rodgers will take away many carries.

How does he catch more passes this year than he's had in his career?

Haven't you seen all the threads lately where Joe Shmoes offer their wildly optimistically inflated projections?

 

[Phenix]

Rushing: 275/1250/13 Receiving 55/350/3I think he has one more season in the tank of good numbers. Plays on a team that defenses' have to respect the pass and plays in a division of with weak defenses. Also, I don't Jacquizz Rodgers will take away many carries.

How does he catch more passes this year than he's had in his career?

Haven't you seen all the threads lately where Joe Shmoes offer their wildly optimistically inflated projections?

What reasons do you think Turner will all of a sudden disappear?Some of the talk about Turner this year is down right unbelievable.You would think he had a leg cut off or something.300+ Carries last year and the team is just gonna forget about him, he is a year older, but still has low miles.275/1200/10

 

[Raider Nation]

Falcons score 40 points.

Turner: 11-32-0

He looks fatter/slower than ever.

 

[FavreCo]

This guy is a blob just taking up space. The Falcons would be brutal to defend if they never let this guy on the field again.

 

[LOCO]

I am worried as this guy is my rb2.

 

[need2know]

I am worried as this guy is my rb2.

for me as well. I say see what happens innate next couple games. I bet he has a big game soon. just a hunch. nfc south def stink

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Falcons score 40 points. Turner: 11-32-0He looks fatter/slower than ever.

Good posting. He looked thoroughly average.

 

[fredsavage]

it's been publicly acknowledged that KC was without lots of defensive starters. Falcons were up big a lot of the game. Turner looks like he's at the end of the rope physically and in the minds of ATL coach staff

 

[Beerguzzler]

I pretty much watched the whole game and now I'm worried abou this guy. My biggest concern is that they passed the ball on first and goal from the 4....three straight times. The only bright side is that hey had to settle for a FG since they couldnt punch it in.

If Turner loses the goal line touches, his value is toast.

Jaquizz Rodgers, however, is also a pretty average back.

 

[RushHour]

It would be nice, while Turner is sucking, if Quizz would take this thing over an make it impossible to take him off the field. Unfortunately he's looked serviceable at best going back to last season. I still think Quizz is a good hold and wait for the second half of the year, but he hasn't exactly passed the eye test so far either.