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Mid-Season WR evaluation (1 Viewer)

2

2short13

Footballguy
The last few years I have started to look, after Week 8, for WR's who may be under the radar but have the opportunity to finish in the top 10 in FF points over the last half of the season. I generally look at every team but my main focus is on those WR who are readily available either on the WW or by an easy trade. I have posted the results in previous years and was discussing it in another thread this year, so here it goes:

Criteria:

WR experience: Most important to have experience, rookies seem to fade

QB experience: Look for Veteran QB's, not rookies.

RB: prefer WR not to be on a team with a STUD who can steal alot of TD's

SOS: major factor

Depth Chart: I feel that in most cases, WR should be #1 on given team, (or close)

Previous results:

2002 - highlighted four WR's:

K. Robinson (finished 5th from Week 9 to Week 17)

Chad Johnson (7)

Lav Coles (8)

Keyshawn (17)

Certainly the most successful year of evaluation

2003 - highlighted 3 WR

S. Moss (5)

S. Smith (13)

K. McCardell (10)

2004 - highlighted 3 Wr

Porter (9)

Mark Clayton (13)

J. Smith (22)

2005 - highlighted 2 WR

C. Chambers (1)

R. Williams (11)

2006 Spreadsheet

WR Team YEARS QB RB HI LO Depth Chart NOTES

Boldin, Fitz ARI 3+ rookie ok 4 3 1 may be able to trade for fitz

Jenkins, White ATL 3+ VET great 3 2 1 not good passing team

Mason, Taylor BAL 3+ VET ok 2 5 1 poor sched

Evans BUF 3+ 2+ ok 3 3 1 even?? Possible

Smith CAR 3+ VET ok 3 2 1 not available

Muhammad, Berrian CHI 2+ 2+ OK 3 1 #1 two WRs, which one to choose

JOHNSON, HOUSH CIN 2 VET GOOG 1 7 1,2 poor sched

Edwards CLE 2 2+ ok 0 6 1 poor sched

TO ,Tglenn DAL 3+ INEXP OK 5 2 #1 Probably cant get either

Walker, Smith DEN 3+ VET ok 1 6 #1 poor sched, poor qb, possible change

Williams Furrey DET 2 VET ok' 2 3 #1 great system, ok sched

Driver, Jennings GB 5+, 1 VET OK 3 0 #1 Good chances

Johnson, Mouls HOU 3+ 2+ ok 3 4 #1 ok

Harrison, Wayne IND 3+ VET ok 4 3 #1 not available

R. Williams, Matt Jones JAX 2+ VET OK 6 1 #1,1a Great possibilities, whos #1 WR

Kennison, Parker KC 3+ VET great 1 6 #1 poor schedule

CHAMBERS, BOOKER MIA 5+ VET OK 2 4 1,2 poor schedule, qb exp?

T. Williamson, M. Robinson MIN 2+ VET GOOD 5 1 #1,1A Great possibilities, whos #1 WR

Jackson NE 1 VET ok 3 3 2 decent opportunity

Horn, Colston NO 3+ VET ok 3 4 #1,1A ok sched, not great

BURRESS, TOOMER NYG 3+ VET GOOD 4 2 1,2 burress available??

Coles, Cotchery NYJ 3+ VET ok 3 2 #1,1A maybe

Moss, Porter OAK 3+ rookie ok 2 5 1 poor sched

Brown PHI 2 VET great 4 3 1 good possibility

WARD, HOLMES PIT 3,1 VET GOOD 1 5 1,2 poor sched

Mccardell, Parker SD 2 2 Year great 1 6 #1,1A poor sched

JACKSON, BRANCH SEA 5+ VET GREAT 3 4 1,2 ok

Bryant SF 3+ 2 Year OK 5 2 #1 Great chance

HOLT, BRUCE STL 5+ VET GOOD 3 5 1,2 ok

Galloway, Clayton TB 3+ rookie ok 4 2 #1,1A may be available, rookie qb

Bennett TEN 3+ rookie ok 4 5 1 rookie qb

Moss WAS 3+ VETok3 3 1 qb change? Ok sched

My Picks

M. Muhammad, CHI

Re. Williams, JAX

M. Robinson, MIN

A. Bryant, SF

Hope this is helpful to some.

Sorry, my format of chart is not very good.

 
I could see Horn emerging from the pack with Colston drawing more attention from Ds. He has the talent, could post top 10 #s from here on out in a potential last hurrah.

I like Mark Clayton as well, even more so if Boller is slinging it and passes are tipped into his hands.

RMoss could also easily be top 10 if Walter starts to click or Brooks comes back healthy and somewhat accurate.

Maybe also someone in TEN is Young is able to start throwing for over 200 yds consistantly. Brandon Jones ?

 
tombonneau said:
I could see Horn emerging from the pack with Colston drawing more attention from Ds. He has the talent, could post top 10 #s from here on out in a potential last hurrah.I like Mark Clayton as well, even more so if Boller is slinging it and passes are tipped into his hands.RMoss could also easily be top 10 if Walter starts to click or Brooks comes back healthy and somewhat accurate.Maybe also someone in TEN is Young is able to start throwing for over 200 yds consistantly. Brandon Jones ?
Click to expand...
Horn is a good possibility and I think the Horn owner would probably trade him pretty easily. When I started doing this, my intention was to identify players who were available. But the list seems to work to help identify ALL potential top 10 WR's. Not sure Moss would be available. Owner may have picked up on, also Walters with little experience doesn't fit the criteria. Clayton doesn't not have an easy schedule so he doesn't fit either.Any TEN would not fit the criteria either as Young is a rookie with just an OK schedule rest of the way.However, with all that said just cause they don't fit my criteria does not mean they won't produce. I just think the odds are better when they meet ALL above criteria.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I'd take a look at Jennings although he's a rookie in GB, Favre has hooked up with this kid since training camp and he's shown to be a reliable WR; he went missing last week with an ankle injury and with a bit of a gimp he may be trade material from an opposing manager.

Cotchery NYJ; 3rd yr WR that's definately showing flashes of the perverbial 3rd year trend; has one of the more accurate passing QB's in the league throwing and has a veteran in Coles on the other side who is demanding double coverage by all defences'; Rookie/Vet RBBC with Washington and Barlow; Mixed schedule with some very tough yet some very soft pass D's in the coming weeks; will have a chance to regroup in week 9 while on bye

:popcorn:

 
I don't see Stalworth on the list, his return could be as early as this week, with McNabb on fire I think his possibilities of lighting it up are great...plus he might have been dropped by some impatient owners...

What's the opinion in the Shark Pool???

 
ryoly said:
I don't see Stalworth on the list, his return could be as early as this week, with McNabb on fire I think his possibilities of lighting it up are great...plus he might have been dropped by some impatient owners...What's the opinion in the Shark Pool???
Click to expand...
Should he come back healthy, Stallworth should put up top 10 numbers. I can't imagine anyone dropping him except in those leagues that have very limited roster space and no IR.
 
I disagree with the fact it can't be a rookie. In fact I think this is the time rookie wr's start to pick up. they are more comfortable with the plays, the qb & coach have more confidence in them and they start to get chances. 2 obvious choices in my mind are:

Chad Jackson

Santonio Holmes

-both had rough preseasons but both are now clearly getting their chance. they were the top wr's chosen in the draft this year and both have huge potential. i wouldnt "count" on these guys but I would certainly take a chance on them if you can. they could be the difference between winning and losing if you more "reliable" wr goes down to an injury.

btw- i just picked up both this week in my main league - i only had to drop my bye week kicker & defense though to get them.

 
I second the choice of A.Bryant- his schedule vs. the pass is just sick for the rest of the year.

One change- I agree that CHI WRs will do well, but I'd say Berrian will probably do better than Muhammad from this point forward. Grossman really seems to have his number.

One addition- Roy Williams/Mike Furrey. Just like w/ SF, most of the Lions' remaining games are vs. teams in the top half of the league in giving up fantasy points to WRs.

 
GOroute said:
I disagree with the fact it can't be a rookie. In fact I think this is the time rookie wr's start to pick up. they are more comfortable with the plays, the qb & coach have more confidence in them and they start to get chances. 2 obvious choices in my mind are:Chad JacksonSantonio Holmes-both had rough preseasons but both are now clearly getting their chance. they were the top wr's chosen in the draft this year and both have huge potential. i wouldnt "count" on these guys but I would certainly take a chance on them if you can. they could be the difference between winning and losing if you more "reliable" wr goes down to an injury.btw- i just picked up both this week in my main league - i only had to drop my bye week kicker & defense though to get them.
Click to expand...
Chad Jackson certainly is a possibility. Just because he doesn't meet all the criteria doesn't mean he won't produce. If you look back over the 5 years however, you won't find many rookie WR's that finished in the top 10 WR points over the last half of the season. NE doesn't have a great sched but it is also not the hardest.Holmes I think has potential but with Ward there I think he gets the redzone looks enough to keep Holmes down a little. PIT has one of the toughest schedules over the last ten weeks so that could hold him down also.Stallworth is another option but with Reggie Brown and Brian Westbrook there to take away receptions I don't like his chances. I'm sure he will have one great game to get everyone excited and then not show up for 3 or 4 of the next games. (See Stallworth history in NO) :D Missed the info on Marcus Robinson last night, but with MIN sched and meeting all the criteria maybe Troy Williamson could seize the opportunity. If Robinson plays and stays healthy I like him. If not, Williamson could be the guy. Only time will tell.
 
mightyeskimo said:
What does the Hi Lo signify? Overall ranking? Average? Nice work! Can you post the Excel file for download?
Click to expand...
Yes, how do I do that? Never posted file.HI:LO represents the number of remaining games versus defenses allowing HI ff WR pts or LO ff WR pts. The total may not always equal the remaining games because some games are against MED defenses.
 
2short13 said:
mightyeskimo said:
What does the Hi Lo signify? Overall ranking? Average? Nice work! Can you post the Excel file for download?
Click to expand...
Yes, how do I do that? Never posted file.HI:LO represents the number of remaining games versus defenses allowing HI ff WR pts or LO ff WR pts. The total may not always equal the remaining games because some games are against MED defenses.
Click to expand...
If you have your own server, or if you have any online storage space from your service provider, you can post a link to the folder where the file resides and share it.
 
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