Miles Austin (1 Viewer)

[bostonfred]

I missed this when it was posted. I agree that a second receiver can either help or hurt. This isn't a case of "there's a second receiver". There is a third receiver - Witten, Dez Bryant and Miles. And they have the running game back together, and want to use Felix as a playmaker. That's a lot of mouths to feed. Yes, there's plenty of room for two guys to get catches on the same team. I remember one year where Burress and Ward were both rated as top 10 receivers with a QB who wasn't even top 20, and we had this debate ad nauseum.

The problem for me with Austin is that I specifically and only believe that Austin blew up like he did last year because he was the only playmaker on the team, and I no longer believe that to be the case. I believe he will still have some very good games and that he will still be a decent WR, I just think his current ADP is ridiculous.

well, which one is it? witten was there last season as well. felix jones hasn't proven he can stay healthy yet, and i'll agree bryant should be good, but austin has good hands, size and speed. i wouldn't be going near hi ADP in redrafts, but in dynasty he has some solid value.

They aren't mutually exclusive statements. Witten is a tight end. A very good tight end. He's arguably their #1 receiving target. But he's not a playmaker in the true sense of the word. Neither is Marion Barber or Tashard Choice. Dez Bryant was drafted to be a playmaker. The Cowboys are excited about Felix Jones because he's a playmaker. Romo is a playmaker. Those are the guys who can make big things happen for the team on any down and distance. Witten, Barber, Choice and Roy Williams are capable of the occasional big gainer, but when the team needs a big play, they are looking to one of the other guys. I believe the reason Austin did well last year was because, when the team needed a big play, he was pretty much the only one who could give it to them. I agree that Felix hasn't stayed healthy, and I think he's probably a little overpriced right now. I agree with others who have said that Dez Bryant isn't going to be 100% ready for prime time this year. But the question isn't whether one of them is going to put up huge numbers. The question is whether Austin is going to get the same opportunities on the plays that are designed for big gainers. And I think this year, he's going to be the target of those plays a lot less often than last year. He'll still be targetted, and he'll still be the second or third option on a lot of those plays, but over a 16 game season, I see him having ups and downs.

I agree that his current redraft ADP is an issue, and I agree that he has some value in dynasty, but I think he's going to be very difficult to get in dynasty right now, and I wouldn't trade what it would probably take to get him. That's not because I think he's not a good player, I just think his price is higher than what his long term production will warrant.

 

[Manster]

i think Miles' numbers have more to do with staying healthy than anything else. he has a history of getting banged up.

he stays healthy, he's the #1 on a pretty scary looking offense. i dont see top 2 #'s, too many weapons for Romo to spread the ball around. i could see top 10 though.

Dez might take some #'s from Miles. BUT, we know what Miles is capable of when healthy. the dude is big and fast! he's a playmaker. Dez's presence will more likely help take attention from Miles.

IF this O is healthy, pick your poison! they will be comin at you from all angles.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

I think he substantiates his top 10 status but never make it to top 3.

 

[JohnnyU]

i think Miles' numbers have more to do with staying healthy than anything else. he has a history of getting banged up.

he stays healthy, he's the #1 on a pretty scary looking offense. i dont see top 2 #'s, too many weapons for Romo to spread the ball around. i could see top 10 though.

Dez might take some #'s from Miles. BUT, we know what Miles is capable of when healthy. the dude is big and fast! he's a playmaker. Dez's presence will more likely help take attention from Miles.

IF this O is healthy, pick your poison! they will be comin at you from all angles.

I believe in the opposite of this. I believe Miles will see coverage like he's never seen before and it's Dez Bryant that will be the benefactor.

 

[ChuckLiddell]

i think Miles' numbers have more to do with staying healthy than anything else. he has a history of getting banged up.

he stays healthy, he's the #1 on a pretty scary looking offense. i dont see top 2 #'s, too many weapons for Romo to spread the ball around. i could see top 10 though.

Dez might take some #'s from Miles. BUT, we know what Miles is capable of when healthy. the dude is big and fast! he's a playmaker. Dez's presence will more likely help take attention from Miles.

IF this O is healthy, pick your poison! they will be comin at you from all angles.

I believe in the opposite of this. I believe Miles will see coverage like he's never seen before and it's Dez Bryant that will be the benefactor.

Why would he see more or different coverage than he did for the second half of last season? The cat was kind of out of the bag by around week 6, no?

 

[JohnnyU]

i think Miles' numbers have more to do with staying healthy than anything else. he has a history of getting banged up.

he stays healthy, he's the #1 on a pretty scary looking offense. i dont see top 2 #'s, too many weapons for Romo to spread the ball around. i could see top 10 though.

Dez might take some #'s from Miles. BUT, we know what Miles is capable of when healthy. the dude is big and fast! he's a playmaker. Dez's presence will more likely help take attention from Miles.

IF this O is healthy, pick your poison! they will be comin at you from all angles.

I believe in the opposite of this. I believe Miles will see coverage like he's never seen before and it's Dez Bryant that will be the benefactor.

Why would he see more or different coverage than he did for the second half of last season? The cat was kind of out of the bag by around week 6, no?

Teams didn't double cover him. I'm not sure they even rolled coverage. I'm not so sure that will be the case in 2010, and if they do, it's Bryant that will benefit, not the other way around. This is just my opinion, not necessarily fact.

 

[JohnnyU]

I stand corrected, he drew double coverage for the first time Nov 9th last year (week 9).

"

IRVING – Cowboys receiver Miles Austin drew double coverage for the first time Sunday against the Eagles.

MICHAEL AINSWORTH/DMN

Miles Austin leaves the Eagles' Quintin Mikell in his tracks on his way to a game-breaking 49-yard touchdown. Although he was limited to one catch, his ability to beat that coverage resulted in a game-breaking 49-yard touchdown pass from Tony Romo. That gave the Cowboys a 20-13 lead with 8:04 left, and they held on for a 20-16 win.

"Miles only had the one catch, but he really was open quite a bit," coach Wade Phillips said. "They jammed him at the line. They doubled him some, which we hadn't seen. A lot "



On second thought, will teams be able to double anyone with all those weapons the Cowboys have, especially Bryant?

 

[Football Jones]

Short answer...Austin is one of the top WRs in the league. No doubt in my mind after studying his performance last season. Also, he might be on the most explosive offense in the league with an outstanding QB, as well.

Barring injury, no way he doesn't have HUGE numbers. Simple as that, IMO.

 

[Manster]

i think Miles' numbers have more to do with staying healthy than anything else. he has a history of getting banged up.

he stays healthy, he's the #1 on a pretty scary looking offense. i dont see top 2 #'s, too many weapons for Romo to spread the ball around. i could see top 10 though.

Dez might take some #'s from Miles. BUT, we know what Miles is capable of when healthy. the dude is big and fast! he's a playmaker. Dez's presence will more likely help take attention from Miles.

IF this O is healthy, pick your poison! they will be comin at you from all angles.

I believe in the opposite of this. I believe Miles will see coverage like he's never seen before and it's Dez Bryant that will be the benefactor.

maybe, but if teams try to take Miles away, they will pay for it.

 

[Tackling Dummies]

On second thought, will teams be able to double anyone with all those weapons the Cowboys have, especially Bryant?

Simply put, no. I'm not a Cowboys fan, but it looks like everything is in line for them to play in the game w/ roman numbers.

 

[radballs]

I agree with BostonFred on almost all his points. His argument is dominating this thread. Where Miles is being drafted this year, there is little room for any value.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

I agree with BostonFred on almost all his points. His argument is dominating this thread. Where Miles is being drafted this year, there is little room for any value.

someone asked earlier "whats not to like" and my answer would be....his current ADP....just don't think he will live up to where he is being taken....

 

[-jb-]

I agree with BostonFred on almost all his points. His argument is dominating this thread. Where Miles is being drafted this year, there is little room for any value.

someone asked earlier "whats not to like" and my answer would be....his current ADP....just don't think he will live up to where he is being taken....

Does the needle move THAT much? IOW, where do you put him among the WRs that come shortly after?MarshallDeSeanColstonJennings RiceBoldinI could see him moving down to below DeSean, but that's about it. Categorically, second and third round WRs offer little upside, not just Austin. Now, if you're of the opinion that he comes with more DOWNSIDE, I get it...but I don't see him having much more, if any, downside than anyone else on that list.YMMV

 

[JohnnyU]

I agree with BostonFred on almost all his points. His argument is dominating this thread. Where Miles is being drafted this year, there is little room for any value.

someone asked earlier "whats not to like" and my answer would be....his current ADP....just don't think he will live up to where he is being taken....

Does the needle move THAT much? IOW, where do you put him among the WRs that come shortly after?MarshallDeSeanColstonJennings RiceBoldinI could see him moving down to below DeSean, but that's about it. Categorically, second and third round WRs offer little upside, not just Austin. Now, if you're of the opinion that he comes with more DOWNSIDE, I get it...but I don't see him having much more, if any, downside than anyone else on that list.YMMV

Anyone remember the value of Eddie Royal after his 2008 season with 91 receptions 980 yds and 5 tds? What's his value now? You think that's all blamed on Orton? Brandon Marshall had great numbers under Orton. Now I know Royal isn't Austin, but as far as ADP goes, that value carries more risk. I witnessed how much Royal was trading for at the end of 2008 and it was ridiculous.

 

[-jb-]

I agree with BostonFred on almost all his points. His argument is dominating this thread. Where Miles is being drafted this year, there is little room for any value.

someone asked earlier "whats not to like" and my answer would be....his current ADP....just don't think he will live up to where he is being taken....

Does the needle move THAT much? IOW, where do you put him among the WRs that come shortly after?MarshallDeSeanColstonJennings RiceBoldinI could see him moving down to below DeSean, but that's about it. Categorically, second and third round WRs offer little upside, not just Austin. Now, if you're of the opinion that he comes with more DOWNSIDE, I get it...but I don't see him having much more, if any, downside than anyone else on that list.YMMV

Anyone remember the value of Eddie Royal after his 2008 season with 91 receptions 980 yds and 5 tds? What's his value now? You think that's all blamed on Orton? Brandon Marshall had great numbers under Orton. Now I know Royal isn't Austin, but as far as ADP goes, that value carries more risk. I witnessed how much Royal was trading for at the end of 2008 and it was ridiculous.

Bad example, but fair point. There is downside based on lack of experience among the top 10.

 

[JohnnyU]

I agree with BostonFred on almost all his points. His argument is dominating this thread. Where Miles is being drafted this year, there is little room for any value.

someone asked earlier "whats not to like" and my answer would be....his current ADP....just don't think he will live up to where he is being taken....

Does the needle move THAT much? IOW, where do you put him among the WRs that come shortly after?MarshallDeSeanColstonJennings RiceBoldinI could see him moving down to below DeSean, but that's about it. Categorically, second and third round WRs offer little upside, not just Austin. Now, if you're of the opinion that he comes with more DOWNSIDE, I get it...but I don't see him having much more, if any, downside than anyone else on that list.YMMV

Anyone remember the value of Eddie Royal after his 2008 season with 91 receptions 980 yds and 5 tds? What's his value now? You think that's all blamed on Orton? Brandon Marshall had great numbers under Orton. Now I know Royal isn't Austin, but as far as ADP goes, that value carries more risk. I witnessed how much Royal was trading for at the end of 2008 and it was ridiculous.

Bad example, but fair point. There is downside based on lack of experience among the top 10.

Why is it a bad example? Royal was a very talented WR drafted into the league in 2008, so why would he be considered any less of a talent than Austin, who hadn't show a lot prior to last year? I don't recall Austin being a big time WR prospect coming into the league. If memory serves Royal was the better prospect.

 

[gianmarco]

someone asked earlier "whats not to like" and my answer would be....his current ADP....just don't think he will live up to where he is being taken....

Does the needle move THAT much? IOW, where do you put him among the WRs that come shortly after?MarshallDeSeanColstonJennings RiceBoldinI could see him moving down to below DeSean, but that's about it. Categorically, second and third round WRs offer little upside, not just Austin. Now, if you're of the opinion that he comes with more DOWNSIDE, I get it...but I don't see him having much more, if any, downside than anyone else on that list.YMMV

Anyone remember the value of Eddie Royal after his 2008 season with 91 receptions 980 yds and 5 tds? What's his value now? You think that's all blamed on Orton? Brandon Marshall had great numbers under Orton. Now I know Royal isn't Austin, but as far as ADP goes, that value carries more risk. I witnessed how much Royal was trading for at the end of 2008 and it was ridiculous.

Bad example, but fair point. There is downside based on lack of experience among the top 10.

Why is it a bad example? Royal was a very talented WR drafted into the league in 2008, so why would he be considered any less of a talent than Austin, who hadn't show a lot prior to last year? I don't recall Austin being a big time WR prospect coming into the league. If memory serves Royal was the better prospect.

Royal finished as WR14 in a 1 ppr league in his rookie year. People were projecting him to finish higher than he had finished.Miles Austin was the #1 overall WR from week 5 on when he gained the starting job. He outperformed the likes of Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Wes Welker Even without discounting his first 4 weeks where he played minimally, he still finished as WR6.It's a different thing to project a WR to improve on what he's done vs. to replicate or even slightly downgrade a previous year's numbers. Factor in the QBs and how they were used and simply how they looked on the field and it's apples to oranges.All Royal did was catch a lot of balls as a rookie. He had a dismal ypc and he didn't score many TDs. He also had the likes of Marshall commanding a ton of coverage that enabled him to do that. He only had 91/980/5 through 16 games.All Austin did was catch 81 balls at a much higher YPC and significantly more TDs with a ton of RAC yards. And he didn't have a Brandon Marshall alongside him although Witten does count for something. He finished with 81/1320/11. And that's only being a starter for 3/4th of the season.

 

[JohnnyU]

It's a different thing to project a WR to improve on what he's done vs. to replicate or even slightly downgrade a previous year's numbers. Factor in the QBs and how they were used and simply how they looked on the field and it's apples to oranges.

If Marshall lit the league up and took balls away from Royal, don't you think Dez Bryant is good enough to do the same to Miles Austin?

 

[e_room_matt]

Three questions keep plauging my mind...

1. If Austin has this much talent, how could be riding the bench for as long as he did? He was considered a marginal talent at the college level (undrafted from Monmouth) and was still on the pine into game four of last season (his third).

2. If the Cowboys believe Austin is for real, why resign him to only a 1 year contract this off season?

3. If the Cowboys believe Austin is for real, why draft Dez Bryant in the first round? They already appear to be loaded offensively and are only missing a defensive secondary from their super bowl puzzle?

 

[gianmarco]

It's a different thing to project a WR to improve on what he's done vs. to replicate or even slightly downgrade a previous year's numbers. Factor in the QBs and how they were used and simply how they looked on the field and it's apples to oranges.

If Marshall lit the league up and took balls away from Royal, don't you think Dez Bryant is good enough to do the same to Miles Austin?

Huh? Marshall had 104 receptions for 1265 yards the year that Royal put up the numbers he did as a rookie. Royal didn't completely bomb last year because Marshall emerged out of nowhere and stole targets. Marshall had 181 targets in 2008. And Marshall already had 102/1325 the year BEFORE Royal came into the league. Also, there was a different coaching staff.The complete opposite is true for Austin. HE is the one that is already "established" and Bryant will be the new one coming in.

I have no idea what your point above is because the situations are completely different and I'm not quite ready to say Dez Bryant = Marshall just yet either.

 

[gianmarco]

Three questions keep plauging my mind...1. If Austin has this much talent, how could be riding the bench for as long as he did? He was considered a marginal talent at the college level (undrafted from Monmouth) and was still on the pine into game four of last season (his third).2. If the Cowboys believe Austin is for real, why resign him to only a 1 year contract this off season? 3. If the Cowboys believe Austin is for real, why draft Dez Bryant in the first round? They already appear to be loaded offensively and are only missing a defensive secondary from their super bowl puzzle?

1. Have you watched him play? If so, are you suggesting that what you saw and the numbers he put up for almost a full season are a fluke and he doesn't have talent just because he sat on the bench for the first few years? I don't have a good answer as to why and you'd have to ask the coaching staff, but at this point it's irrelevant. It was relevant moreso last year when trying to decide if his first couple games were for real. The remainder of the season proved they were.2. For the same reason Chris Johnson isn't getting a new contract or Boldin didn't for a while or countless other players. Because it's a business and the Cowboys don't need to do so yet.3. Because they drafted best player available. Drafting Dez Bryant at the #24 spot has 0 to do with Miles Austin. They could have had Larry Fitzgerald and still done the same thing.

 

[JohnnyU]

It's a different thing to project a WR to improve on what he's done vs. to replicate or even slightly downgrade a previous year's numbers. Factor in the QBs and how they were used and simply how they looked on the field and it's apples to oranges.

If Marshall lit the league up and took balls away from Royal, don't you think Dez Bryant is good enough to do the same to Miles Austin?

Huh? Marshall had 104 receptions for 1265 yards the year that Royal put up the numbers he did as a rookie. Royal didn't completely bomb last year because Marshall emerged out of nowhere and stole targets. Marshall had 181 targets in 2008. And Marshall already had 102/1325 the year BEFORE Royal came into the league. Also, there was a different coaching staff.The complete opposite is true for Austin. HE is the one that is already "established" and Bryant will be the new one coming in.

I have no idea what your point above is because the situations are completely different and I'm not quite ready to say Dez Bryant = Marshall just yet either.

All I know is that Orton wasn't looking Royal's way for some reason and that reason was probably Brandon Marshall. I don't think Miles Austin is near the talent that Dez Bryant is and that will eventually be proven, if not this year, then 2011 for sure. You can count on Dez Bryant eating into some of that Miles Austin gravy in 2010 too.

 

[gianmarco]

It's a different thing to project a WR to improve on what he's done vs. to replicate or even slightly downgrade a previous year's numbers. Factor in the QBs and how they were used and simply how they looked on the field and it's apples to oranges.

If Marshall lit the league up and took balls away from Royal, don't you think Dez Bryant is good enough to do the same to Miles Austin?

Huh? Marshall had 104 receptions for 1265 yards the year that Royal put up the numbers he did as a rookie. Royal didn't completely bomb last year because Marshall emerged out of nowhere and stole targets. Marshall had 181 targets in 2008. And Marshall already had 102/1325 the year BEFORE Royal came into the league. Also, there was a different coaching staff.The complete opposite is true for Austin. HE is the one that is already "established" and Bryant will be the new one coming in.

I have no idea what your point above is because the situations are completely different and I'm not quite ready to say Dez Bryant = Marshall just yet either.

All I know is that Orton wasn't looking Royal's way for some reason and that reason was probably Brandon Marshall. I don't think Miles Austin is near the talent that Dez Bryant is and that will eventually be proven, if not this year, then 2011 for sure. You can count on Dez Bryant eating into some of that Miles Austin gravy in 2010 too.

Once again, Brandon Marshall was already there in 2008 and got even more targets that year than he did in 2009. I'm not understanding how you're using him as a reason for Royal's downfall in 2009 when there was no change between those 2 from 2008 to 2009. What changed was the QB and the coaching staff. If you want to look for a reason for why Royal disappointed in 2009, you need to look there or at Royal himself. Marshall is NOT the reason because, as I thought I stated quite clearly and you should be aware, Marshall was already in place in 2007 (the year before) and in 2008. I would understand that as a reason if Marshall only caught 50 balls in 2008 and then exploded in 2009. That wasn't the case at all. Marshall put up practically identical numbers.So no, that reason probably wasn't Brandon Marshall.

As to whether or not Bryant is > Austin, the future will tell us. I think they are probably very close in talent level. I agree that Dez will eat into his targets and that's the main thing limiting Austin from being able to achieve #1 overall status, something I believe he was capable of prior to the Dez drafting.

 

[JohnnyU]

It's a different thing to project a WR to improve on what he's done vs. to replicate or even slightly downgrade a previous year's numbers. Factor in the QBs and how they were used and simply how they looked on the field and it's apples to oranges.

If Marshall lit the league up and took balls away from Royal, don't you think Dez Bryant is good enough to do the same to Miles Austin?

Huh? Marshall had 104 receptions for 1265 yards the year that Royal put up the numbers he did as a rookie. Royal didn't completely bomb last year because Marshall emerged out of nowhere and stole targets. Marshall had 181 targets in 2008. And Marshall already had 102/1325 the year BEFORE Royal came into the league. Also, there was a different coaching staff.The complete opposite is true for Austin. HE is the one that is already "established" and Bryant will be the new one coming in.

I have no idea what your point above is because the situations are completely different and I'm not quite ready to say Dez Bryant = Marshall just yet either.

All I know is that Orton wasn't looking Royal's way for some reason and that reason was probably Brandon Marshall. I don't think Miles Austin is near the talent that Dez Bryant is and that will eventually be proven, if not this year, then 2011 for sure. You can count on Dez Bryant eating into some of that Miles Austin gravy in 2010 too.

Once again, Brandon Marshall was already there in 2008 and got even more targets that year than he did in 2009. I'm not understanding how you're using him as a reason for Royal's downfall in 2009 when there was no change between those 2 from 2008 to 2009. What changed was the QB and the coaching staff. If you want to look for a reason for why Royal disappointed in 2009, you need to look there or at Royal himself. Marshall is NOT the reason because, as I thought I stated quite clearly and you should be aware, Marshall was already in place in 2007 (the year before) and in 2008. I would understand that as a reason if Marshall only caught 50 balls in 2008 and then exploded in 2009. That wasn't the case at all. Marshall put up practically identical numbers.So no, that reason probably wasn't Brandon Marshall.

As to whether or not Bryant is > Austin, the future will tell us. I think they are probably very close in talent level. I agree that Dez will eat into his targets and that's the main thing limiting Austin from being able to achieve #1 overall status, something I believe he was capable of prior to the Dez drafting.

I'll give you that Marshall's presence probably didn't take away from Royal, but you did say that Royal was the blame for his play in 2009. So, isn't it true that Royal looked great in 2008 and was a higher rated prospect than Austin? Isn't it also true there's a possibility that the lower ranked prospect Austin could digress in 2010 just as the higher ranked prospect Royal did in 2009? Then there's Dez Bryant..... You bring up the QBs. Well, like I said, Marshall didn't have issues with Orton or the change of coaches. Let's not forget Romo has more weapons, which will probably eat into Austin's numbers.

 

[e_room_matt]

First four games he was on the bench. Next two he exploded against inept secondaries (KC and ATL). after which teams started to take him seriously. From week 8 on is when we got a real flavor for what he will look like this season.

Prorated from week 8 on he would have had 1298 yards and 10 TDs over a full season. That's my baseline projection. I'm adding in a 5% decrease for dating Kim Kardashian and the cowboys tougher schedule (AFC South instead of West, and NFC North instead of South) and he projects at 1233 yards and 9 TDs. That's the projection I'm using.

Week Date Opp Score Rec Yds Y/R Lng TD KR Yds Avg Long TD PR Yds Avg Long TD Fum FumL

1 Sep 13 @ TAM W 34-21 1 42 42.0 42 1 1 20 20.0 20 0 0 0 N/A N/A 0 0 0

2 Sep 20 NYG L 31-33 1 20 20.0 20 0 1 29 29.0 29 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0

3 Sep 28 CAR W 21-7 0 0 0 0 0 1 23 23.0 23 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0

4 Oct 4 @ DEN L 10-17 3 19 6.3 11 0 2 52 26.0 28 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0

5 Oct 11 @ KAN W 26-20 10 250 25.0 60 2 1 24 24.0 24 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0

6 bye

7 Oct 25 ATL W 37-21 6 171 28.5 59 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0

8 Nov 1 SEA W 38-17 5 61 12.2 17 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 Nov 8 @ PHI W 20-16 1 49 49.0 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10 Nov 15 @ GNB L 7-17 4 20 5.0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

11 Nov 22 WAS W 7-6 4 47 11.8 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

12 Nov 26 OAK W 24-7 7 145 20.7 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

13 Dec 6 @ NYG L 24-31 10 104 10.4 22 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

14 Dec 13 SDG L 17-20 6 71 11.8 21 1 1 9 9.0 9 0 0 0 N/A N/A 0 0 0

15 Dec 19 @ NOR W 24-17 7 139 19.9 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

16 Dec 27 @ WAS W 17-0 9 92 10.2 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

17 Jan 3 PHI W 24-0 7 90 12.9 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 81 1320 16.3 60 11 7 157 22.4 29 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 1 0

 

[gianmarco]

First four games he was on the bench. Next two he exploded against inept secondaries (KC and ATL). after which teams started to take him seriously. From week 8 on is when we got a real flavor for what he will look like this season.Prorated from week 8 on he would have had 1298 yards and 10 TDs over a full season. That's my baseline projection. I'm adding in a 5% decrease for dating Kim Kardashian and the cowboys tougher schedule (AFC South instead of West, and NFC North instead of South) and he projects at 1233 yards and 9 TDs. That's the projection I'm using.Week Date Opp Score Rec Yds Y/R Lng TD KR Yds Avg Long TD PR Yds Avg Long TD Fum FumL 1 Sep 13 @ TAM W 34-21 1 42 42.0 42 1 1 20 20.0 20 0 0 0 N/A N/A 0 0 0 2 Sep 20 NYG L 31-33 1 20 20.0 20 0 1 29 29.0 29 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 3 Sep 28 CAR W 21-7 0 0 0 0 0 1 23 23.0 23 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 4 Oct 4 @ DEN L 10-17 3 19 6.3 11 0 2 52 26.0 28 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 5 Oct 11 @ KAN W 26-20 10 250 25.0 60 2 1 24 24.0 24 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 6 bye 7 Oct 25 ATL W 37-21 6 171 28.5 59 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 8 Nov 1 SEA W 38-17 5 61 12.2 17 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 Nov 8 @ PHI W 20-16 1 49 49.0 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Nov 15 @ GNB L 7-17 4 20 5.0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 Nov 22 WAS W 7-6 4 47 11.8 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 Nov 26 OAK W 24-7 7 145 20.7 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 Dec 6 @ NYG L 24-31 10 104 10.4 22 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 Dec 13 SDG L 17-20 6 71 11.8 21 1 1 9 9.0 9 0 0 0 N/A N/A 0 0 0 15 Dec 19 @ NOR W 24-17 7 139 19.9 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 Dec 27 @ WAS W 17-0 9 92 10.2 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 Jan 3 PHI W 24-0 7 90 12.9 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 81 1320 16.3 60 11 7 157 22.4 29 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 1 0

That's a very fair projection. Using that projection or even a small decrease, he still justifies his current ADP. When you consider he's likely got a safer floor than anyone else with the exception of the top 2-3 guys, then he easily justifies that spot. That's the beauty of what he did. You can throw out his 2 early monster games and his numbers are still incredibly good. 1300/10 are clear WR1 numbers.

 

[JohnnyU]

First four games he was on the bench. Next two he exploded against inept secondaries (KC and ATL). after which teams started to take him seriously. From week 8 on is when we got a real flavor for what he will look like this season.Prorated from week 8 on he would have had 1298 yards and 10 TDs over a full season. That's my baseline projection. I'm adding in a 5% decrease for dating Kim Kardashian and the cowboys tougher schedule (AFC South instead of West, and NFC North instead of South) and he projects at 1233 yards and 9 TDs. That's the projection I'm using.Week Date Opp Score Rec Yds Y/R Lng TD KR Yds Avg Long TD PR Yds Avg Long TD Fum FumL 1 Sep 13 @ TAM W 34-21 1 42 42.0 42 1 1 20 20.0 20 0 0 0 N/A N/A 0 0 0 2 Sep 20 NYG L 31-33 1 20 20.0 20 0 1 29 29.0 29 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 3 Sep 28 CAR W 21-7 0 0 0 0 0 1 23 23.0 23 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 4 Oct 4 @ DEN L 10-17 3 19 6.3 11 0 2 52 26.0 28 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 5 Oct 11 @ KAN W 26-20 10 250 25.0 60 2 1 24 24.0 24 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 6 bye 7 Oct 25 ATL W 37-21 6 171 28.5 59 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 8 Nov 1 SEA W 38-17 5 61 12.2 17 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 Nov 8 @ PHI W 20-16 1 49 49.0 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Nov 15 @ GNB L 7-17 4 20 5.0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 Nov 22 WAS W 7-6 4 47 11.8 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 Nov 26 OAK W 24-7 7 145 20.7 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 Dec 6 @ NYG L 24-31 10 104 10.4 22 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 Dec 13 SDG L 17-20 6 71 11.8 21 1 1 9 9.0 9 0 0 0 N/A N/A 0 0 0 15 Dec 19 @ NOR W 24-17 7 139 19.9 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 Dec 27 @ WAS W 17-0 9 92 10.2 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 Jan 3 PHI W 24-0 7 90 12.9 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 81 1320 16.3 60 11 7 157 22.4 29 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 1 0

That's a very fair projection. Using that projection or even a small decrease, he still justifies his current ADP. When you consider he's likely got a safer floor than anyone else with the exception of the top 2-3 guys, then he easily justifies that spot. That's the beauty of what he did. You can throw out his 2 early monster games and his numbers are still incredibly good. 1300/10 are clear WR1 numbers.

By 2011 you're looking at 800/7 numbers for Austin and 1300/13 for Bryant.

 

[gianmarco]

If Marshall lit the league up and took balls away from Royal, don't you think Dez Bryant is good enough to do the same to Miles Austin?

Huh? Marshall had 104 receptions for 1265 yards the year that Royal put up the numbers he did as a rookie. Royal didn't completely bomb last year because Marshall emerged out of nowhere and stole targets. Marshall had 181 targets in 2008. And Marshall already had 102/1325 the year BEFORE Royal came into the league. Also, there was a different coaching staff.The complete opposite is true for Austin. HE is the one that is already "established" and Bryant will be the new one coming in. I have no idea what your point above is because the situations are completely different and I'm not quite ready to say Dez Bryant = Marshall just yet either.

All I know is that Orton wasn't looking Royal's way for some reason and that reason was probably Brandon Marshall. I don't think Miles Austin is near the talent that Dez Bryant is and that will eventually be proven, if not this year, then 2011 for sure. You can count on Dez Bryant eating into some of that Miles Austin gravy in 2010 too.

Once again, Brandon Marshall was already there in 2008 and got even more targets that year than he did in 2009. I'm not understanding how you're using him as a reason for Royal's downfall in 2009 when there was no change between those 2 from 2008 to 2009. What changed was the QB and the coaching staff. If you want to look for a reason for why Royal disappointed in 2009, you need to look there or at Royal himself. Marshall is NOT the reason because, as I thought I stated quite clearly and you should be aware, Marshall was already in place in 2007 (the year before) and in 2008. I would understand that as a reason if Marshall only caught 50 balls in 2008 and then exploded in 2009. That wasn't the case at all. Marshall put up practically identical numbers.So no, that reason probably wasn't Brandon Marshall.As to whether or not Bryant is > Austin, the future will tell us. I think they are probably very close in talent level. I agree that Dez will eat into his targets and that's the main thing limiting Austin from being able to achieve #1 overall status, something I believe he was capable of prior to the Dez drafting.

I'll give you that Marshall's presence probably didn't take away from Royal, but you did say that Royal was the blame for his play in 2009. So, isn't it true that Royal looked great in 2008 and was a higher rated prospect than Austin? Isn't it also true there's a possibility that the lower ranked prospect Austin could digress in 2010 just as the higher ranked prospect Royal did in 2009? Then there's Dez Bryant..... You bring up the QBs. Well, like I said, Marshall didn't have issues with Orton or the change of coaches. Let's not forget Romo has more weapons, which will probably eat into Austin's numbers.

I'll try this again re: Royal's disappointment in his 2nd year when there were higher expectations (of which, btw, I was not one of the believers). What people were projecting for Royal was something he had never done. They were projecting an improvement. Not only did the improvement not take place, he significantly regressed. The thing is, his numbers in 2008 weren't really that spectacular. He caught a lot of balls. That's about it. He had a miserable YPC. He didn't score many TDs. He didn't even crack 1000 yards. So to see a WR that, while doing well for a rookie, really didn't do much and then regressed isn't as surprising as a WR who put up THE BEST OVERALL NUMBERS BY ANY WR from week 5 onward. We're not talking about above average numbers. We're talking about numbers that bested Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, and any other WR since Austin took a starting role in week 5. In other words, he's already proved he can put up the numbers.Now, of course there's the possibility that he could digress. No one is a 100% mortal lock after 1 year of production. But we're not saying that the guy needs to improve on what he's done. And we're not talking about a guy that put up just above average numbers and hope he's the real deal. You simply don't put up the numbers you do at that level in the NFL without a good bit of talent. Could he have overachieved? Definitely, but he's still the real deal and his floor is still probably much safer than a lot of other WRs that may even be more proven than him. The only other WR that I can think of to come out of nowhere and put up huge numbers without pedigree and after being in the league a few years and then completely fade away was Drew Bennett. The thing was, Bennett put up his numbers in 3 games and then did nothing the rest of the year. His year end totals were completely falsely elevated. You can take away Austin's top games and the rest of his numbers are still top 10 material. Huge difference.But let's forget stats. Watch the guy play. He LOOKED incredible. He caught everything in sight. He ran all kinds of routes. He scores TDs. High RAC. High YPC. Physical. Tall. Fast. What's the hole in his game? ETA--What does Marshall's continued success with the QB and coaching change have to do with Royal? You tried to say that the reason Royal bombed was because of Marshall. I stated quite clearly while that's very unlikely to be the case and gave possible reasons. Pointing out that Marshall did well with Orton and the coaching change has nothing to do with that argument. All that shows is that Marshall is an elite talent and will perform with just about anyone in just about any system. It's most likely that Royal isn't that kind of talent and just supports the fact that he may have done as well as he did in 2008 mostly due to situation. Now, if you're trying to argue that Austin only succeeded last year due to situation then that's another thing. I vehemently disagree with that, but that's your prerogative.

 

[gianmarco]

First four games he was on the bench. Next two he exploded against inept secondaries (KC and ATL). after which teams started to take him seriously. From week 8 on is when we got a real flavor for what he will look like this season.Prorated from week 8 on he would have had 1298 yards and 10 TDs over a full season. That's my baseline projection. I'm adding in a 5% decrease for dating Kim Kardashian and the cowboys tougher schedule (AFC South instead of West, and NFC North instead of South) and he projects at 1233 yards and 9 TDs. That's the projection I'm using.Week Date Opp Score Rec Yds Y/R Lng TD KR Yds Avg Long TD PR Yds Avg Long TD Fum FumL 1 Sep 13 @ TAM W 34-21 1 42 42.0 42 1 1 20 20.0 20 0 0 0 N/A N/A 0 0 0 2 Sep 20 NYG L 31-33 1 20 20.0 20 0 1 29 29.0 29 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 3 Sep 28 CAR W 21-7 0 0 0 0 0 1 23 23.0 23 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 4 Oct 4 @ DEN L 10-17 3 19 6.3 11 0 2 52 26.0 28 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 5 Oct 11 @ KAN W 26-20 10 250 25.0 60 2 1 24 24.0 24 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 6 bye 7 Oct 25 ATL W 37-21 6 171 28.5 59 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 8 Nov 1 SEA W 38-17 5 61 12.2 17 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 Nov 8 @ PHI W 20-16 1 49 49.0 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Nov 15 @ GNB L 7-17 4 20 5.0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 Nov 22 WAS W 7-6 4 47 11.8 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 Nov 26 OAK W 24-7 7 145 20.7 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 Dec 6 @ NYG L 24-31 10 104 10.4 22 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 Dec 13 SDG L 17-20 6 71 11.8 21 1 1 9 9.0 9 0 0 0 N/A N/A 0 0 0 15 Dec 19 @ NOR W 24-17 7 139 19.9 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 Dec 27 @ WAS W 17-0 9 92 10.2 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 Jan 3 PHI W 24-0 7 90 12.9 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 81 1320 16.3 60 11 7 157 22.4 29 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 1 0

That's a very fair projection. Using that projection or even a small decrease, he still justifies his current ADP. When you consider he's likely got a safer floor than anyone else with the exception of the top 2-3 guys, then he easily justifies that spot. That's the beauty of what he did. You can throw out his 2 early monster games and his numbers are still incredibly good. 1300/10 are clear WR1 numbers.

By 2011 you're looking at 800/7 numbers for Austin and 1300/13 for Bryant.

800/7? There were ~40 WRs last year that had > 800 yards. You think Austin, after putting up over 1300 yards isn't even going to crack the top 40 while playing on one of the best offenses with one of the best QBs in the league?

 

[RoyDubb]

First four games he was on the bench. Next two he exploded against inept secondaries (KC and ATL). after which teams started to take him seriously. From week 8 on is when we got a real flavor for what he will look like this season.Prorated from week 8 on he would have had 1298 yards and 10 TDs over a full season. That's my baseline projection. I'm adding in a 5% decrease for dating Kim Kardashian and the cowboys tougher schedule (AFC South instead of West, and NFC North instead of South) and he projects at 1233 yards and 9 TDs. That's the projection I'm using.Week Date Opp Score Rec Yds Y/R Lng TD KR Yds Avg Long TD PR Yds Avg Long TD Fum FumL 1 Sep 13 @ TAM W 34-21 1 42 42.0 42 1 1 20 20.0 20 0 0 0 N/A N/A 0 0 0 2 Sep 20 NYG L 31-33 1 20 20.0 20 0 1 29 29.0 29 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 3 Sep 28 CAR W 21-7 0 0 0 0 0 1 23 23.0 23 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 4 Oct 4 @ DEN L 10-17 3 19 6.3 11 0 2 52 26.0 28 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 5 Oct 11 @ KAN W 26-20 10 250 25.0 60 2 1 24 24.0 24 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 6 bye 7 Oct 25 ATL W 37-21 6 171 28.5 59 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 8 Nov 1 SEA W 38-17 5 61 12.2 17 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 Nov 8 @ PHI W 20-16 1 49 49.0 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Nov 15 @ GNB L 7-17 4 20 5.0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 Nov 22 WAS W 7-6 4 47 11.8 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 Nov 26 OAK W 24-7 7 145 20.7 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 Dec 6 @ NYG L 24-31 10 104 10.4 22 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 Dec 13 SDG L 17-20 6 71 11.8 21 1 1 9 9.0 9 0 0 0 N/A N/A 0 0 0 15 Dec 19 @ NOR W 24-17 7 139 19.9 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 Dec 27 @ WAS W 17-0 9 92 10.2 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 Jan 3 PHI W 24-0 7 90 12.9 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 81 1320 16.3 60 11 7 157 22.4 29 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 1 0

That's a very fair projection. Using that projection or even a small decrease, he still justifies his current ADP. When you consider he's likely got a safer floor than anyone else with the exception of the top 2-3 guys, then he easily justifies that spot. That's the beauty of what he did. You can throw out his 2 early monster games and his numbers are still incredibly good. 1300/10 are clear WR1 numbers.

By 2011 you're looking at 800/7 numbers for Austin and 1300/13 for Bryant.

800/7? There were ~40 WRs last year that had > 800 yards. You think Austin, after putting up over 1300 yards isn't even going to crack the top 40 while playing on one of the best offenses with one of the best QBs in the league?

JohnnyU just drafted Dez 4th WR overall in a startup so I guess that should explain his last post.

 

[gianmarco]

First four games he was on the bench. Next two he exploded against inept secondaries (KC and ATL). after which teams started to take him seriously. From week 8 on is when we got a real flavor for what he will look like this season.Prorated from week 8 on he would have had 1298 yards and 10 TDs over a full season. That's my baseline projection. I'm adding in a 5% decrease for dating Kim Kardashian and the cowboys tougher schedule (AFC South instead of West, and NFC North instead of South) and he projects at 1233 yards and 9 TDs. That's the projection I'm using.Week Date Opp Score Rec Yds Y/R Lng TD KR Yds Avg Long TD PR Yds Avg Long TD Fum FumL 1 Sep 13 @ TAM W 34-21 1 42 42.0 42 1 1 20 20.0 20 0 0 0 N/A N/A 0 0 0 2 Sep 20 NYG L 31-33 1 20 20.0 20 0 1 29 29.0 29 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 3 Sep 28 CAR W 21-7 0 0 0 0 0 1 23 23.0 23 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 4 Oct 4 @ DEN L 10-17 3 19 6.3 11 0 2 52 26.0 28 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 5 Oct 11 @ KAN W 26-20 10 250 25.0 60 2 1 24 24.0 24 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 6 bye 7 Oct 25 ATL W 37-21 6 171 28.5 59 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 8 Nov 1 SEA W 38-17 5 61 12.2 17 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 Nov 8 @ PHI W 20-16 1 49 49.0 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Nov 15 @ GNB L 7-17 4 20 5.0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 Nov 22 WAS W 7-6 4 47 11.8 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 Nov 26 OAK W 24-7 7 145 20.7 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 Dec 6 @ NYG L 24-31 10 104 10.4 22 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 Dec 13 SDG L 17-20 6 71 11.8 21 1 1 9 9.0 9 0 0 0 N/A N/A 0 0 0 15 Dec 19 @ NOR W 24-17 7 139 19.9 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 Dec 27 @ WAS W 17-0 9 92 10.2 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 Jan 3 PHI W 24-0 7 90 12.9 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 81 1320 16.3 60 11 7 157 22.4 29 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 1 0

That's a very fair projection. Using that projection or even a small decrease, he still justifies his current ADP. When you consider he's likely got a safer floor than anyone else with the exception of the top 2-3 guys, then he easily justifies that spot. That's the beauty of what he did. You can throw out his 2 early monster games and his numbers are still incredibly good. 1300/10 are clear WR1 numbers.

By 2011 you're looking at 800/7 numbers for Austin and 1300/13 for Bryant.

800/7? There were ~40 WRs last year that had > 800 yards. You think Austin, after putting up over 1300 yards isn't even going to crack the top 40 while playing on one of the best offenses with one of the best QBs in the league?

JohnnyU just drafted Dez 4th WR overall in a startup so I guess that should explain his last post.

No, it shouldn't. I'm not gonna argue his Dez prediction because I don't think there's any question he's a talented WR that is oozing with potential. Notice I didn't comment on that part. But Dez's success along with Austin doing well aren't mutually exclusive. It's possible for Dez to be as good (and better than Austin) like he thinks without predicting such low #'s for Austin. What 800/7 says is that he thinks he's a complete fluke, last year was due to nothing more than situations, and that he will be nothing more than a role player in the future.

 

[No Way Jose]

First four games he was on the bench. Next two he exploded against inept secondaries (KC and ATL). after which teams started to take him seriously. From week 8 on is when we got a real flavor for what he will look like this season.Prorated from week 8 on he would have had 1298 yards and 10 TDs over a full season. That's my baseline projection. I'm adding in a 5% decrease for dating Kim Kardashian and the cowboys tougher schedule (AFC South instead of West, and NFC North instead of South) and he projects at 1233 yards and 9 TDs. That's the projection I'm using.Week Date Opp Score Rec Yds Y/R Lng TD KR Yds Avg Long TD PR Yds Avg Long TD Fum FumL 1 Sep 13 @ TAM W 34-21 1 42 42.0 42 1 1 20 20.0 20 0 0 0 N/A N/A 0 0 0 2 Sep 20 NYG L 31-33 1 20 20.0 20 0 1 29 29.0 29 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 3 Sep 28 CAR W 21-7 0 0 0 0 0 1 23 23.0 23 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 4 Oct 4 @ DEN L 10-17 3 19 6.3 11 0 2 52 26.0 28 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 5 Oct 11 @ KAN W 26-20 10 250 25.0 60 2 1 24 24.0 24 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 0 0 6 bye 7 Oct 25 ATL W 37-21 6 171 28.5 59 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 8 Nov 1 SEA W 38-17 5 61 12.2 17 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 Nov 8 @ PHI W 20-16 1 49 49.0 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Nov 15 @ GNB L 7-17 4 20 5.0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 Nov 22 WAS W 7-6 4 47 11.8 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 Nov 26 OAK W 24-7 7 145 20.7 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 Dec 6 @ NYG L 24-31 10 104 10.4 22 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 Dec 13 SDG L 17-20 6 71 11.8 21 1 1 9 9.0 9 0 0 0 N/A N/A 0 0 0 15 Dec 19 @ NOR W 24-17 7 139 19.9 49 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 Dec 27 @ WAS W 17-0 9 92 10.2 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 Jan 3 PHI W 24-0 7 90 12.9 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 81 1320 16.3 60 11 7 157 22.4 29 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 1 0

That's a very fair projection. Using that projection or even a small decrease, he still justifies his current ADP. When you consider he's likely got a safer floor than anyone else with the exception of the top 2-3 guys, then he easily justifies that spot. That's the beauty of what he did. You can throw out his 2 early monster games and his numbers are still incredibly good. 1300/10 are clear WR1 numbers.

By 2011 you're looking at 800/7 numbers for Austin and 1300/13 for Bryant.

800/7? There were ~40 WRs last year that had > 800 yards. You think Austin, after putting up over 1300 yards isn't even going to crack the top 40 while playing on one of the best offenses with one of the best QBs in the league?

JohnnyU just drafted Dez 4th WR overall in a startup so I guess that should explain his last post.

He traded in to my 2.01 for dez and I picked up miles 6 picks later.....should be interesting to see how that plays out for the both of us.

 

[JohnnyU]

He traded in to my 2.01 for dez and I picked up miles 6 picks later.....should be interesting to see how that plays out for the both of us.

There's absolutely no doubt in my mind that Dez Bryant will be worth more than Miles Austin long term, and possibly even 2010, but for sure 2011 and beyond. I honestly can't see why anyone would think otherwise.

 

[Mr. Fusion]

There's absolutely no doubt in my mind that Dez Bryant will be worth more than Miles Austin long term, and possibly even 2010, but for sure 2011 and beyond. I honestly can't see why anyone would think otherwise.

It's possible that Dez has more value in 2011 and beyond but 2010? Come on, man.In Fitzgerald's rookie year he had 780 yards with Boldin missing 6 full games and part of at least one other. Of couse, Tony Romo is a bit better than Josh McCown.

If you've seen Miles Austin play, you can tell he is a very talented WR with the full confidence of his QB. I honestly can't see why anyone would think otherwise.

 

[JohnnyU]

There's absolutely no doubt in my mind that Dez Bryant will be worth more than Miles Austin long term, and possibly even 2010, but for sure 2011 and beyond. I honestly can't see why anyone would think otherwise.

It's possible that Dez has more value in 2011 and beyond but 2010? Come on, man.

I said possibly for 2010, not definitely. It's clear I stressed 2011 and beyond.

 

[No Way Jose]

He traded in to my 2.01 for dez and I picked up miles 6 picks later.....should be interesting to see how that plays out for the both of us.

There's absolutely no doubt in my mind that Dez Bryant will be worth more than Miles Austin long term, and possibly even 2010, but for sure 2011 and beyond. I honestly can't see why anyone would think otherwise.

Well if you look at the future of Dallas, I think its safe to say that Roy Williams will be gone after 2010. At that point Dallas is gonna have to decide what to do with Miles Austin. They will either have to sign him to a long term deal, Franchise him or let him go. Any of those options will help increase both Dez an Miles value. I think its been pretty obvious that Romo has great chemistry with Austin and I see no reason for that to change. Whenever Austin is on the field he looks far more superior than the rest of the guys with his talent and physical size. I honestly don't think Dez has the work ethic that Austin does. Dez has the natural ability, but I'm gonna take the guy that has a good head on his shoulders as well. I think Dez and Roy are very similar in a lot of ways, and I think we will see that they will have very similar careers.

 

[zamboni]

It's interesting to see how many people are already anointing Bryant as the second coming - and one to knock Austin off his perch - when the guy hasn't even been to training camp yet. Kind of reminds me of Plaxico Burress coming into the league with all the hype - and with tremendous skills that would enable him to move the hard-working Hines Ward to the side. We saw what happened there.

Not to say it's a true comparison of Burress/Bryant and Ward/Austin, but the bottom line is that while many are saying that the hard-working Austin may have been a one-season wonder, the same could also apply to Bryant being a guy whose maturity/poise may prevent him from realizing his talent.

Time will tell on this one...

 

[JohnnyU]

He traded in to my 2.01 for dez and I picked up miles 6 picks later.....should be interesting to see how that plays out for the both of us.

There's absolutely no doubt in my mind that Dez Bryant will be worth more than Miles Austin long term, and possibly even 2010, but for sure 2011 and beyond. I honestly can't see why anyone would think otherwise.

Well if you look at the future of Dallas, I think its safe to say that Roy Williams will be gone after 2010. At that point Dallas is gonna have to decide what to do with Miles Austin. They will either have to sign him to a long term deal, Franchise him or let him go. Any of those options will help increase both Dez an Miles value. I think its been pretty obvious that Romo has great chemistry with Austin and I see no reason for that to change. Whenever Austin is on the field he looks far more superior than the rest of the guys with his talent and physical size. I honestly don't think Dez has the work ethic that Austin does. Dez has the natural ability, but I'm gonna take the guy that has a good head on his shoulders as well. I think Dez and Roy are very similar in a lot of ways, and I think we will see that they will have very similar careers.

Yeah, I guess it's easy for everyone to be right in July. Let's see where this is in December of 2011. Notice I didn't say Dec 2010

 

[JPeso]

He traded in to my 2.01 for dez and I picked up miles 6 picks later.....should be interesting to see how that plays out for the both of us.

There's absolutely no doubt in my mind that Dez Bryant will be worth more than Miles Austin long term, and possibly even 2010, but for sure 2011 and beyond. I honestly can't see why anyone would think otherwise.

Well if you look at the future of Dallas, I think its safe to say that Roy Williams will be gone after 2010. At that point Dallas is gonna have to decide what to do with Miles Austin. They will either have to sign him to a long term deal, Franchise him or let him go. Any of those options will help increase both Dez an Miles value. I think its been pretty obvious that Romo has great chemistry with Austin and I see no reason for that to change. Whenever Austin is on the field he looks far more superior than the rest of the guys with his talent and physical size. I honestly don't think Dez has the work ethic that Austin does. Dez has the natural ability, but I'm gonna take the guy that has a good head on his shoulders as well. I think Dez and Roy are very similar in a lot of ways, and I think we will see that they will have very similar careers.

Yeah, I guess it's easy for everyone to be right in July. Let's see where this is in December of 2011. Notice I didn't say Dec 2010

I love both of these guys, JU, and think they both can be perennial top 10 WRs in PPR leagues, but projecting 800/7? Who are you kidding? I don't mind putting some coin on Austin's numbers this year and next if you think it's close to that.

 

[JohnnyU]

He traded in to my 2.01 for dez and I picked up miles 6 picks later.....should be interesting to see how that plays out for the both of us.

There's absolutely no doubt in my mind that Dez Bryant will be worth more than Miles Austin long term, and possibly even 2010, but for sure 2011 and beyond. I honestly can't see why anyone would think otherwise.

Well if you look at the future of Dallas, I think its safe to say that Roy Williams will be gone after 2010. At that point Dallas is gonna have to decide what to do with Miles Austin. They will either have to sign him to a long term deal, Franchise him or let him go. Any of those options will help increase both Dez an Miles value. I think its been pretty obvious that Romo has great chemistry with Austin and I see no reason for that to change. Whenever Austin is on the field he looks far more superior than the rest of the guys with his talent and physical size. I honestly don't think Dez has the work ethic that Austin does. Dez has the natural ability, but I'm gonna take the guy that has a good head on his shoulders as well. I think Dez and Roy are very similar in a lot of ways, and I think we will see that they will have very similar careers.

Yeah, I guess it's easy for everyone to be right in July. Let's see where this is in December of 2011. Notice I didn't say Dec 2010

I love both of these guys, JU, and think they both can be perennial top 10 WRs in PPR leagues, but projecting 800/7? Who are you kidding? I don't mind putting some coin on Austin's numbers this year and next if you think it's close to that.

He will do better than that this year, but what about future years once Dez is the new #1 WR in Dallas, and he will be?