MJD vs. Portis (1 Viewer)

[Whiplash Inc.]

If you compare Portis' track record to that of MJD's lone season it really isn't even close. Sure, MJD scored a lot of touchdowns, but you can say the same for Portis, who scored 7 TDs in 7 games, before leaving injured in the 8th game he played in.

 

[Arm Chair Express]

This is copied from a post I made on a different site praising MJD...

Do you realize that he had around 1350 combined yards in his last 14 games (the 1st 2... he hardly played)?

Do you realize he did this only touching the ball (on average over those 14 games) 15 times per contest?

If you were on the coaching staff this offseason and evaluating your team... wouldn't those #'s scream something like "we need to get this guy more touches" at you?

Again... I agree with those that say his TD production was likely somewhat of a fluke and should see a decline this year (if Greg Jones is a factor at all). But what you need to keep in mind is that Fred Taylor does not score TD's or catch passes anymore.

Over the last 3 seasons, Taylor has averaged 4 TD's and only 24 catches. At his age, I don't see either of those statistics significantly improving.

In conclusion... assuming he averages the same # of touches per game (12 rushes and 3 catches) as last season (which is ridiculous... he should get more) and that his rushing average drops to around 5 yards per carry (which is more reasonable than his gawdy 5.7 yds per carry)... if you prorate that out over 16 games.

12 rushes times 5 yards per carry = 60 yds per game times 16 games = 960 yards rushing

3 catches times 10 yards per catch = 30 yds per game times 16 games = 480 yards receiving

Total = 1440 combined yards.

I don't see the downside to these yardage totals.

Now... could Greg Jones vulture some TD's? Sure... he could.... so I'd cut the TD production with MJD by a third. Give him 10 TD's.

I'm interested to see what all of these people choosing Portis over MJD predict for Clinton.

Again.... Safe (ridiculously safe actually) predictions for MJD

1440 combined yards. 48 catches. 10 TD's.

Would Clinton Portis circa 2005 beat those #'s? Let's take a look. His stats were

1732 combined yards. 30 catches. 13 TD's.

The answer... Portis of 2005 beats my projections for MJD this year.

The questions you have to ask yourself are this.....

1. Do you think Portis of 2007 will exceed Portis of 2005? My answer... hell no. The Skins are not the Denver Broncos of the early part of this decade... despite having Al Saunders. Portis is 2 years and a major knee surgery older, and has some competition (albeit limited... I agree) for carries.

2. Do you think Portis will repeat the #'s of 2 years ago (with a knee surgery and a proven #2 RB in Betts)? It's possible... but not likely.

3. What do I predict for Portis this year? Well... I'd go with...

1500 combined yards (1250 rushing, 250 receiving), 35 catches, and 11 TD's.

Those #'s slightly beat MJD in my predictions.... but I'd still select MJD over Portis any day.

Why? Upside!

The only way MJD doesn't get the #'s I have posted for him are...

A. If he gets hurt

B. If the coaching staff is completely moronic

With the #'s I posted for Portis... I don't see the major upside.

Tell me where I'm wrong on either set of predictions.

Please remind me when Portis had this major knee injury that required surgery. Last year is the only season I remember him being IR'd and he had 2 shoulder injuries, and bad anlke and a broken bone in his hand that ended his season. None of those injuries were major enough to effect his running this year. I think both of these guys are great talents, but when it boils down to it, I'll go with the Al Saunders offense which has produced M. Faulk, P. Holmes and L. Johnson. What do they all have in common? They were all the primary ball carrier and all were top fantasy backs. That to me is what seperates the two. Talent + system = fantasy gold.

 

[(HULK)]

It's crazy how much love Fragile Fred is getting.

it's crazy how "fragile" still sticks with fred even though he's been not so fragile in years...

Didn't he miss the last several games he was eligible to play in???

 

[Desert_Power]

In a current WCOFF mock, I have the first pick..Here is my roster so far....1.1 Ladainian Tomlinson RB2.12. Clinton Portis RB3.1. Thomas Jones RB4.12. Reggie Brown WR5.1. Laverneus Coles WR6.12. Vincent Jackson WR7.1. Santonio Holmes WRI might haver reached for these last two WRs..I think both came on BIG time the second half of last season, and will have huge seasons. I may have reached for them but when you take 3 RBs with your first 3 picks in a WCOFF format, the WRs start to thin out.somewhat in round 4.. IN a PPR, is Jones a mistake in round 3?OPINIONS PLEASE....

Shouldn't you be discussing politics or something...

 

[Sleeper 43]

Portis in a re-draft - Betts is a one trick pony, nice to give Portis a breather. Portis will be VERY good this year vs ADP.

MJD in a dynasty - just needs to shake of the RB stragglers around him , the rest is history.

 

[(HULK)]

Jones should be coming back for some goaline work.

I am a little tired of hearing this. Are there any links that support this?The guy has some pretty serious injuries to come back from. Isn't there just as much a chance he doesn't even make it through camp and gets released?

Greg Jones is a freaking fullback and the only goalline touches he see will be on misdirection plays. End of story.

 

[Sleeper 43]

Jones should be coming back for some goaline work.

I am a little tired of hearing this. Are there any links that support this?The guy has some pretty serious injuries to come back from. Isn't there just as much a chance he doesn't even make it through camp and gets released?

Greg Jones is a freaking fullback and the only goalline touches he see will be on misdirection plays. End of story.

Yeah he was only going to be there co-starting tailback going into the next season prior to the pre-season injury.

 

[NOONAN]

Jones should be coming back for some goaline work.

I am a little tired of hearing this. Are there any links that support this?The guy has some pretty serious injuries to come back from. Isn't there just as much a chance he doesn't even make it through camp and gets released?

Greg Jones is a freaking fullback and the only goalline touches he see will be on misdirection plays. End of story.

You beat me to it. Enough already. Jones is bulking up to play FULLBACK.

 

[((Morpheus))]

Any new thoughts?

 

[salmonstud]

Portis in a re-draft - Betts is a one trick pony, nice to give Portis a breather. Portis will be VERY good this year vs ADP.MJD in a dynasty - just needs to shake of the RB stragglers around him , the rest is history.

Agree 100% . I don't believe Jones-Drew will equal his fantasy production of last year in 2007 but he will be money in PPR leagues in 2008 once Freddy T is put out to pasture for good. I'm a Lions homer (please refrain from the comments) and Jones-Drew reminded me allot of Barry Sanders in terms of his running style. I think Jones-Drew will be top 7 in 2008 with top 5 potential in PPR leagues. He was #9 last year sharing the load with Taylor & only a few touches the first 2 games of the season.

 

[Marek]

I would love to see actual projections from all of these MJD / Portis supporters.

Some things that make logical sense to me:

- MJD is NOT an every down back. However, he will see more touches than last year due to a great '06 and an aging Taylor. He is the obvious future of the running game there. I think at least 10% more is a completely reasonable expectation. However, I think this is the point several of you will disagree with. Many people seem to think his TD production was a fluke last season and expect him to decline instead.

- MJD will receive many more passes than Portis will, which is obviously significant for PPR leagues.

- Jacksonville has arguably the best run blocking line in the league (definitely better than Washington's).

- Portis is an every down back.

- Betts career year in '06 will at least slightly reduce Portis' total carries since there is no need to over-work him with a very competent backup.

If we assume Portis will completely bounce back and match his excellent numbers from '06 while giving only a 10% increase for MJD's fantasy point total, these two guys are still neck and neck. But in a PPR league, MJD comes out far ahead in pretty much any scenario.

 

[salmonstud]

Some things that make logical sense to me:

- MJD is NOT an every down back. However, he will see more touches than last year due to a great '06 and an aging Taylor. He is the obvious future of the running game there. I think at least 10% more is a completely reasonable expectation. However, I think this is the point several of you will disagree with. Many people seem to think his TD production was a fluke last season and expect him to decline instead.

- MJD will receive many more passes than Portis will, which is obviously significant for PPR leagues.

- Jacksonville has arguably the best run blocking line in the league (definitely better than Washington's).

Where is it written that MJD is not an everydown back? People that are making this claim are misinformed. MJD is 5'7", 208...built much like Barry Sanders and more compact than Tiki Barber and about the same playing weight. When Fred Taylor went down late last season MJD filled in nicely as an every down back. 25 rushes for 98 yards & 3 receptions for 47 yards. 19 rushes for 131 & 6 receptions for 41 yards. Jones Drew will average 20 touches per game in 2008.