Listen kid, you just looked at $24,108.65 in payouts in the past 8-9 months. I'm done playing with you.
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MLB Handicapping: Back to Losing (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
Either way, I'm sorry for coming at you so harshly earlier today. I'm trying to do something nice / interesting for everybody here and you were really the tamest of the bunch.
You got the collective backlash of everybody else.
Damn! I definitely regret not taking the runline now. Would have been nice to snag an extra $45.24.
15 of 16 of the Astros wins have been by 2+ runs. Obviously that LOOKS like a trend but I know these books aren't stupid, I don't want to get hit with some crazy regression of the Astros winning 2-3 games by '1 run'.
I'm going to have to ponder this again next time the Astros are a near 2-1 favorite.
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System PlaysEminence said:
YTD: 5-11 (-$730.22) 31.25%
Today: 1-2
Orioles over is absolutely crushing us along with fading the Giants ML. Those two trends account for $600 of the $730 lost so far (82% of all losses), sick.
Based on our system tomorrow's plays are as follows:
Pirates -120
Orioles / Rays O10.5, -105
Houston Astros -170 (This might end up being runline, I don't want to risk a bad beat though)
Twins +100
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
$730 is like what, 3 weeks of Walgreens pay? Can you pick up an extra shift?
Don Quixote
Footballguy
National Gambling Problem Hotline: 1-800-522-4700
Limp Ditka said:
Don Quixote said:
Wow, what a bunch of noobs who can't be bothered to read the thread. I already posted where I've made $24,108.65 in gambling withdraws and re-quoted in this post for your interests. Funny how you guys can add insults but not actually read, hahaha.
Let me teach you guys a little bit of gambling etiquette:
1.) If someone is offering you free plays, you say thank you, you say something constructive, or you say nothing. Even if they're the worst plays in the world, you say nothing negative. It's something they're doing out of the kindness of their heart. Think of it as your wife's cooking. Even when it's bad, it's good or you don't comment.
2.) If someone is losing money, you don't insult them or make fun of them for it. You never know how much somebody is or isn't making and anyone who takes enjoyment in the financial losses of someone else is a sick person. It's on par with laughing at someone because their dog died.
3.) If someone is betting a "system" based on the results of a month or more worth of games, you give them a month's worth of games to shake out the + / - of the past month. System plays are on general, smaller in size than what would consider a "normal play" and success or failure is based on the longterm versus the shortterm.
1.) If someone is offering you free plays, you say thank you, you say something constructive, or you say nothing. Even if they're the worst plays in the world, you say nothing negative. It's something they're doing out of the kindness of their heart. Think of it as your wife's cooking. Even when it's bad, it's good or you don't comment.
2.) If someone is losing money, you don't insult them or make fun of them for it. You never know how much somebody is or isn't making and anyone who takes enjoyment in the financial losses of someone else is a sick person. It's on par with laughing at someone because their dog died.
3.) If someone is betting a "system" based on the results of a month or more worth of games, you give them a month's worth of games to shake out the + / - of the past month. System plays are on general, smaller in size than what would consider a "normal play" and success or failure is based on the longterm versus the shortterm.
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Giants Fade (0-3) -$300.00
Twins Road (1-3) -$155.00
Nationals 3 (2-1) $17.64
Orioles Over (0-3) -$300.00
Astros (2-1) $7.14
Coors Over (0-0) $0.00
Rockies Home (0-0) $0.00
Here's our breakdown of who's "done us right" and "done us wrong" so far. As stated before, it's the Giants and Orioles Over that has been crushing us so far but it's a small sample size. We haven't even had a chance to bet on Coors Over and Rockies at home but I think that changes here in the next couple days.
Twins Road (1-3) -$155.00
Nationals 3 (2-1) $17.64
Orioles Over (0-3) -$300.00
Astros (2-1) $7.14
Coors Over (0-0) $0.00
Rockies Home (0-0) $0.00
Here's our breakdown of who's "done us right" and "done us wrong" so far. As stated before, it's the Giants and Orioles Over that has been crushing us so far but it's a small sample size. We haven't even had a chance to bet on Coors Over and Rockies at home but I think that changes here in the next couple days.
System Plays
YTD: 5-15 (-$1,130.22) 25%
Today: 0-4
Holy crap, at this point I'm intrigued. 25% is so terrible and unsustainable, but who knows?
Maybe I devised a losing system, which is good. Do I go against my intuition and start fading the system? This is a mind####.
Stupid Sexy Giants.
Giants Fade 0-4 -$400.00
Twins Road 1-4 -$255.00
Nationals 3 2-1 $17.64
Orioles Over 0-4 -$400.00
Astros 2-2 -$92.86
Coors Over 0-0 $0.00
Rockies Home 0-0 $0.00
I don't even understand how the #### this is possible. Is the trick to betting on baseball to just wait for a months worth of trends and then just against the them?
I would have been better off actually making plays than just being lazy and betting a system.
Seriously, what the ####? I hate this sport.
I would have been better off actually making plays than just being lazy and betting a system.
Seriously, what the ####? I hate this sport.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
No, the key to baseball is betting it BEFORE any trends or statistical analysis can be applied to this season. Like in April, maybe into early May.
We are entering the dog days of summer where teams have a lot of travel, no off days, they are tired, they are looking forward to the all-star break, and bullpens are breaking down. Still, your record here is quite amazing. If someone faded you they'd have a new boat in four days.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
System Plays
YTD: 8-18, 30% (-$1,130.25)
Today: 3-3
Twins hit on a +135 so no juice there.
Tomorrows plays:
Pirates +105
Orioles / Rays O10.5, -115
Astros -110
Twins +115
Nationals -130
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System Plays:
YTD: 10-21 (32.26%), -$1,272.43
Yesterday: 2-3
Based on the system, today's plays are:
Orioles / Brewers O10.5, -110
Nationals ML, -182
Rockies ML, -156
Rockies / Reds O12, -110
jfranco77
Footballguy
Revisit Rockies/Reds O/U tomorrow when Homer Bailey pitches for the Reds. What's the highest O/U ever?
System Plays
YTD: 12-23 (34.3%), -$1,353.39
Today: 2-2
Based on our system, tomorrow's plays are as follows:
Tigers ML, -220
Orioles / Brewers O10, -110
Astros ML, -145
Rockies ML, -155
Rockies / Reds O13, EVEN
Lol, right? I can't believe they're going to do it to the poor guy. They're gonna drag him through the mud as he collects that big contract.
Should be a bloodbath and good for some July 4th fun.
O/U 13 has to be the highest an O/U can get, right? I can see 13.5 maybe but I can't envision a scenario where a total would be 14.
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Limp Ditka
Footballguy
System Plays:
Yesterday: 2-3
YTD: 16 - 29 (35.5%) -$(1,695.38)
Based on our system, today's plays are as follows:
Detroit ML, -155
Rockies ML, -165
Rockies / Reds O13, -115
Nationals ML, -165
Astros ML, -163
Orioles / Twins O9.5, -115
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YTD
16-29-0
-$1,695.38
Giants Fade (1-7) -$654.55
Twins Road (2-6) -$320.00
Nationals 3 (4-2) $49.50
Orioles Over (1-8) -$719.10
Astros (6-2) $218.00
Coors Over (0-3) -$300.00
Rockies Home (2-1) $30.77
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Yesterday: 2-4
Today: 5-0
Marlins ML, -110
Rockies ML, -175
Rockies / White Sox O11, -110
Nationals ML, -280
Astros ML, -103
YTD: 23-33 (41%, -$1,487.03)
Tomorrow's plays:
Astros ML, -110
Nationals ML, -205
Rockies ML, -145
Rockies / White Sox O11, -105
Two-week results:
YTD 27-38-0 (41%) -$1,620.17
Giants Fade 4-7 -$394.12
Twins Road 2-6 -$320.00
Nationals 3 5-4 -$13.46
Orioles Over 3-8 -$537.28
Astros 8-4 $179.67
Coors Over 1-6 -$509.09
Rockies Home 4-3 -$25.88
Yesterday:
Padres -101
Cubs / Orioles OX, -110
Nationals, -112
Today:
Cubs / Orioles O10, -105
Nationals -162
Padres +125
16th
Cubs / Orioles OX
Padres ML
17th
Nationals ML
Orioles / Rangers O
Astros ML
Rockies ML
Rockies / Padres O
Indians ML
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
I haven't seen this thread yet, so my comments might be a little late:
There are some teams that I bet on/against on consecutive days, although not every day. But it's not because that team is necessarily doing well/poorly, it's because my numbers have them overvalued/undervalued by the bookmakers. But those teams change as the books adjust.
I don't think blind-betting teams every day is a recipe for success. There might be things like SportsInsights' Summer Coors Over System that work for awhile, but any loophole can be closed.
Other general advice is always, always, always find a book that has nickel lines for baseball. Those nickels add up. My other piece is that the lifespan of an MLB line is roughly about 28 hours. BOL/Sportsbetting originate MLB sides around 3 PM eastern the day before a game, they get picked up by the other offshores shortly thereafter (who either add juice or shade towards public or sharp action) and then the sportsbooks add them that evening. They then shift and move around during that time.
IMO, there are exactly two points during that lifespan where it makes the most sense to bet: 1) right when they come out or 2) right when lineups are released. Preferably both. I'm usually pretty good on 1, and I get to 2 when I can.
To wit, here's what I bet for Tuesday, followed by the price where it currently sits:
ATL +131 (now +111)
DET +112 (now +101)
SD +166 (now +142)
LAA -120 (now -114)
Three moved in my direction, one against. But overall I got my money in quite a bit better than I would have if I'd waited. This is the first year I've really put in some decent effort to playing sides, and I'm up a modest amount for the year. But I'm a really big proponent of doing the boring, small stuff like line-shopping, clearing bonuses, etc. etc.
There are some teams that I bet on/against on consecutive days, although not every day. But it's not because that team is necessarily doing well/poorly, it's because my numbers have them overvalued/undervalued by the bookmakers. But those teams change as the books adjust.
I don't think blind-betting teams every day is a recipe for success. There might be things like SportsInsights' Summer Coors Over System that work for awhile, but any loophole can be closed.
Other general advice is always, always, always find a book that has nickel lines for baseball. Those nickels add up. My other piece is that the lifespan of an MLB line is roughly about 28 hours. BOL/Sportsbetting originate MLB sides around 3 PM eastern the day before a game, they get picked up by the other offshores shortly thereafter (who either add juice or shade towards public or sharp action) and then the sportsbooks add them that evening. They then shift and move around during that time.
IMO, there are exactly two points during that lifespan where it makes the most sense to bet: 1) right when they come out or 2) right when lineups are released. Preferably both. I'm usually pretty good on 1, and I get to 2 when I can.
To wit, here's what I bet for Tuesday, followed by the price where it currently sits:
ATL +131 (now +111)
DET +112 (now +101)
SD +166 (now +142)
LAA -120 (now -114)
Three moved in my direction, one against. But overall I got my money in quite a bit better than I would have if I'd waited. This is the first year I've really put in some decent effort to playing sides, and I'm up a modest amount for the year. But I'm a really big proponent of doing the boring, small stuff like line-shopping, clearing bonuses, etc. etc.
System YTD: 36-42 (46.15%), -$1,209.20Eminence said:
Since Allstar Break: 9-4 (69.2%), +$410.96
Breakdown:
Giants Fade 7-8 -$172.20
Twins Road 2-6 -$320.00
Nationals 3 7-4 $137.55
Orioles Over 5-10 -$551.13
Astros 8-5 $79.67
Coors Over 2-6 -$418.18
Rockies Home 5-3 $35.09
Finally got to catch up on my bookkeeping. Had a weekend in Miami and then flew into Chicago.
System has been hot since the Allstar Break starting off 9-4. Overall, we're much closer to 50% which is the first milestone to accomplish.
Giants regressed a bit and at 7-8 are close to being profitable. Astros and Nationals Big 3 have been unsurprisingly profitable at a combined 15-9.
Appreciate the insight here, slick.
I've learned that the system by itself is doomed to fail. There are times where I look at matchups and know some of these are terrible plays but it's part of the system so it gets loaded up.
Betting on the Nationals Big 3, Rockies at Home, and the Astros in general has been a "winning system" if you ever chose to be so lazy and just phone it in like that.
The Orioles Over was the worst idea so far since there's less correlation with a combined over than with a team winning. Coors still has credence because of the stadium but is still a losing bet YTD.
As far as my personal stuff I've been having success with, I've been doing a lot of F5 betting. It's a lot more enjoyable not sweating out 3 hour games only to win or lose based on some relief pitcher I've never heard of.
Unfortunately for me, that doesn't give me much wiggle room to line-shop like you've suggested in this post here based on when the lines are released.
I need to load up at 5Dimes they do that reduced juice nonsense and since I've barely used the book I've got no cuts. I just hate the interface and do most of my gambling where I double-down until I reach a number worth withdrawing. If I was doing stable one-unit bets, the extra nickel would be way worth it.
I gamble everyday and the trick for me is getting in as much action as possible without having to Live bet. For me, familiarity with my sportsbook is a premium.
I like the philosophy of chasing but I don't think I'm saavy enough to determine anything about a matchup without reading a writeup from MLB.com as a crutch. I have been focusing on only betting games where there is a reasonable sample size for each pitcher with some success. I mostly ignore line movement. If it's around -150 and the angle makes sense, I take it.
But yeah, I definitely appreciate your insight as you're lightyears ahead of me in MLB betting and I missed talking to you in general.
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Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Lotta good options besides 5D: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/best-sportsbooks/baseball-lines/Appreciate the insight here, slick.
I've learned that the system by itself is doomed to fail. There are times where I look at matchups and know some of these are terrible plays but it's part of the system so it gets loaded up.
Betting on the Nationals Big 3, Rockies at Home, and the Astros in general has been a "winning system" if you ever chose to be so lazy and just phone it in like that.
The Orioles Over was the worst idea so far since there's less correlation with a combined over than with a team winning. Coors still has credence because of the stadium but is still a losing bet YTD.
As far as my personal stuff I've been having success with, I've been doing a lot of F5 betting. It's a lot more enjoyable not sweating out 3 hour games only to win or lose based on some relief pitcher I've never heard of.
Unfortunately for me, that doesn't give me much wiggle room to line-shop like you've suggested in this post here based on when the lines are released.
I need to load up at 5Dimes they do that reduced juice nonsense and since I've barely used the book I've got no cuts. I just hate the interface and do most of my gambling where I double-down until I reach a number worth withdrawing. If I was doing stable one-unit bets, the extra nickel would be way worth it.
I gamble everyday and the trick for me is getting in as much action as possible without having to Live bet. For me, familiarity with my sportsbook is a premium.
I like the philosophy of chasing but I don't think I'm saavy enough to determine anything about a matchup without reading a writeup from MLB.com as a crutch. I have been focusing on only betting games where there is a reasonable sample size for each pitcher with some success. I mostly ignore line movement. If it's around -150 and the angle makes sense, I take it.
But yeah, I definitely appreciate your insight as you're lightyears ahead of me in MLB betting and I missed talking to you in general.
Will post more later.
System YTD: 40 - 43 (48%), -$1,012.68Eminence said:
Since Allstar Break: 13 - 5 (72%), +$607.48
Today: 4 - 1
The comeback is real.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-H-pahXl33SEBhC-pR4-YGQQPzxeyUguoW8NIo0zwZw
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Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
If a system gives you plays that are bad, you shouldn't play it. The linesmakers know a lot of runs get scored in Coors. If they know that, and are accounting for that, there's no advantage there. And to be profitable, you have to not be just as good as the bookmaker, you have to be a good degree better, because you're paying the vig.Appreciate the insight here, slick.
I've learned that the system by itself is doomed to fail. There are times where I look at matchups and know some of these are terrible plays but it's part of the system so it gets loaded up.
Betting on the Nationals Big 3, Rockies at Home, and the Astros in general has been a "winning system" if you ever chose to be so lazy and just phone it in like that.
The Orioles Over was the worst idea so far since there's less correlation with a combined over than with a team winning. Coors still has credence because of the stadium but is still a losing bet YTD.
As far as my personal stuff I've been having success with, I've been doing a lot of F5 betting. It's a lot more enjoyable not sweating out 3 hour games only to win or lose based on some relief pitcher I've never heard of.
Unfortunately for me, that doesn't give me much wiggle room to line-shop like you've suggested in this post here based on when the lines are released.
I need to load up at 5Dimes they do that reduced juice nonsense and since I've barely used the book I've got no cuts. I just hate the interface and do most of my gambling where I double-down until I reach a number worth withdrawing. If I was doing stable one-unit bets, the extra nickel would be way worth it.
I gamble everyday and the trick for me is getting in as much action as possible without having to Live bet. For me, familiarity with my sportsbook is a premium.
I like the philosophy of chasing but I don't think I'm saavy enough to determine anything about a matchup without reading a writeup from MLB.com as a crutch. I have been focusing on only betting games where there is a reasonable sample size for each pitcher with some success. I mostly ignore line movement. If it's around -150 and the angle makes sense, I take it.
But yeah, I definitely appreciate your insight as you're lightyears ahead of me in MLB betting and I missed talking to you in general.
F5's are great, I'd say try to hit them as early as possible when they're released morning-of. I'm also going to start dabbling in 2H's, but I've been trying to cap so many different things that I am starting to run out of time.
Today:
Astros ML, -150
Astros / Orioles O11, -110
Rockies ML, -136
Rockies / Pirates O12, -110
Nationals ML, -152
Padres ML, +147
YTD 45-46-0 -$909.14
Big day here. Sitting at 49% YTD. Got about a week left until we've been at it for a month.
Could be a turning point, could be a burial!
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
My numbers say avoid the Rockies tomorroww, fwiw.
5-1 today
YTD 56-52-0 -$493.64 (52%)
Giants Fade 10-11 -$50.04
Twins Road 2-6 -$320.00
Nationals 3 8-6 -$75.49
Orioles Over 10-11 -$204.16
Astros 11-7 $80.95
Coors Over 6-7 -$150.22
Rockies Home 9-4 $225.33
We've been running red hot since the Allstar Break. We rallied back from -$2,030.86 to -$493.64.
We've officially hit 52% on the year and if we have a few good days should be in the green!
YTD 56-52-0 -$493.64 (52%)
Giants Fade 10-11 -$50.04
Twins Road 2-6 -$320.00
Nationals 3 8-6 -$75.49
Orioles Over 10-11 -$204.16
Astros 11-7 $80.95
Coors Over 6-7 -$150.22
Rockies Home 9-4 $225.33
We've been running red hot since the Allstar Break. We rallied back from -$2,030.86 to -$493.64.
We've officially hit 52% on the year and if we have a few good days should be in the green!
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
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