Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
GO!
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***MNF Bonanza***The New England Patriots(8-4) at the Buffalo Bills(7-4)*** (-3) O/U 39.5 Wind is Howling (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ministry of Pain
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
35 degrees with a nice 25 Mph steady wind, not a lot of rain in the forecast this evening. I would think the RBs are going to lead the way tonight allowing the QBs to catch the opposing defenses here and there in some play-action as the they move throughout the night.
Long balls down the field could be hard to come by going into the wind.
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Insoxicated
Best Forecast I've Seen:
Looking like 35F with SW Winds 25-35mph with gusts up to 55mph.
Minimal chance of precipitation (wintry mix).
Deep ball is going to be a challenge tonight... Watch Dugger's status (COV19). He's somewhat of a key cog and from what I understand, is a big part of containing Allen. Consider Allen Rushing prop overs if he's inactive.
Looking like 35F with SW Winds 25-35mph with gusts up to 55mph.
Minimal chance of precipitation (wintry mix).
Deep ball is going to be a challenge tonight... Watch Dugger's status (COV19). He's somewhat of a key cog and from what I understand, is a big part of containing Allen. Consider Allen Rushing prop overs if he's inactive.
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rockaction
Footballguy
MoPe, you're early today! Excited?
Dang, I was hoping to last until about 4:00 PM PST time or so before firing this one up. Christmas is early, folks!
I have no idea what will happen tonight. I'm really most interested in the weather. I have Josh Allen in one league needing ten points to win the game this week and stay alive in the playoff hunt. Let's go Bills! Big game Josh.
Dang, I was hoping to last until about 4:00 PM PST time or so before firing this one up. Christmas is early, folks!
I have no idea what will happen tonight. I'm really most interested in the weather. I have Josh Allen in one league needing ten points to win the game this week and stay alive in the playoff hunt. Let's go Bills! Big game Josh.
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
Hoping for a NEP Defensive shut out and zero points from Nick Folk
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Insoxicated
My Plays on tonight's game, so far:
"Risk Free" Same Game Parlay: NEP +7.5 + Under 47.5 + D Harris to Score a TD (+450) ---- 1u
D Harris 100yds Rushing / Diggs 100yds Receiving (+2200) --- (0.25u micro-bet)
Bourne to Score TD (+320) --- (0.25u micro-bet)
E Sanders u31.5 Rec Yds (-115) --- (0.25u microbet)
J Allen o35.5 Rush Yds (-120) - 1u
TB -4.5 / NEP +9.5 (-130) ---- 2u
"Risk Free" First TD Wager: Harris to score first TD (+900) ---- 1u
"Risk Free" Same Game Parlay: NEP +7.5 + Under 47.5 + D Harris to Score a TD (+450) ---- 1u
D Harris 100yds Rushing / Diggs 100yds Receiving (+2200) --- (0.25u micro-bet)
Bourne to Score TD (+320) --- (0.25u micro-bet)
E Sanders u31.5 Rec Yds (-115) --- (0.25u microbet)
J Allen o35.5 Rush Yds (-120) - 1u
TB -4.5 / NEP +9.5 (-130) ---- 2u
"Risk Free" First TD Wager: Harris to score first TD (+900) ---- 1u
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
Guess I need NE to shut Buffalo down in one spot and for Diggs to get ~15 in another. Might be a thin needle.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
For this particular gam I certainly am. Miami is 6-7, a Buffalo loss would put us just 1 win less than what they've totaled on the season, it's an interesting match up, hard to believe the Patriots are going to juts keep rolling with the rookie QB.
You got Week 14 to yourself next week, I started launching Sat afternoon, I needed to have a big week to make a playoff push in a few leagues and like many of you, some years I cruise into the Playoffs and many times 1 and done, but then you have other seasons where you never feel like you have a legit chance to win and then suddenly you catch some lightning in a bottle and you get hot at just the right moment.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
The spread for the point total has dropped a lot, opened at 46, moving to 41...
I'm getting 13-9 game totals either way coming up on my Magic-8 Ball, what are you all finding?
TEs are going to be deployed tonight, all passes will be of the shorter variety me thinks. Allen might have to use his wheels tonight to move the team.
I'm getting 13-9 game totals either way coming up on my Magic-8 Ball, what are you all finding?
TEs are going to be deployed tonight, all passes will be of the shorter variety me thinks. Allen might have to use his wheels tonight to move the team.
Dizzy
Footballguy
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Insoxicated
Why?
Mac Jones is by FAR the best rookie QB, and is currently PFF's 7th highest graded QB overall. He throws "Catchable balls" at a clip that allows NEP receivers to maintain a league low 3.3% drop rate.. and has the 2nd highest completion percentage in the NFL (70.3%).
Part of that is the NEP dink and dunk offense, part of that is Mac's play-action proficiency (completed 11 PA passes in a row vs TENN). It goes without saying that play-action will be important tonight.
The Patriots are just fine rolling with Mac at the helm.
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
You misinterpreted, I'm not knocking mac Jones at all...hard to believe...how about we try don't want to believe, is that better? I'm just saying that the patriots tough pill to swallow down here watching them rise to the best team in the AFC right now. Nobody wants to play them.
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Dizzy
Footballguy
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Possible point totals tonight just based on the idea these teams will have huge issues kicking the football, these winds are going to be very difficult and so you might see both teams going for it more often than usual.
I could see the score being 8-6 New England leading late 2nd as hey are going into the Half and just getting into FG range won't cut it.
A shootout seems more and ore unlikely plus don't these two Defenses rank like 1st and 2nd in FF or am I sniffing glue?
I could see the score being 8-6 New England leading late 2nd as hey are going into the Half and just getting into FG range won't cut it.
A shootout seems more and ore unlikely plus don't these two Defenses rank like 1st and 2nd in FF or am I sniffing glue?
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Insoxicated
Tre’Davious White tearing his ACL opens things up for Bourne / Agholor.
Taron Johnson should give Meyers some fits out of the slot.
If Either team has a weakness it's vs RB (6th best Schedule adjusted FP Allowed at -2.7 - NEP is #18).
The Bills are#1 vs QB at -6.2 (NE is #2), #1 vs WR (NE is #4), and #3 vs TE (NE is #1)
Taron Johnson should give Meyers some fits out of the slot.
If Either team has a weakness it's vs RB (6th best Schedule adjusted FP Allowed at -2.7 - NEP is #18).
The Bills are#1 vs QB at -6.2 (NE is #2), #1 vs WR (NE is #4), and #3 vs TE (NE is #1)
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Tonight and next week doesn't get a lot better on MNF.
Rams vs Cards next week
Rams vs Cards next week
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Insoxicated
Historical QB Data
(IMO generally historical data is pointless, but NEP defensive scheme has remained similar enough over the years that there's at least SOME relevance.):
Josh Allen vs NEP: 56.3 Comp% / 76.7 QBR / 7 TD vs 6 INT. He's rushed for 157yds and 2TDs in 5 games.
Mac10 obviously has no historical data vs BUF.
2021 Red Zone QB Data:
Josh Allen: 105.0 QBR (3rd) with 18TD and 1INT. Rushing 18att for 68yd and 3TD
Mac Jones: 99.0 QBR (7th) with 12TD and 0INT. Rushing 6 att for 16yd and 0TD
(IMO generally historical data is pointless, but NEP defensive scheme has remained similar enough over the years that there's at least SOME relevance.):
Josh Allen vs NEP: 56.3 Comp% / 76.7 QBR / 7 TD vs 6 INT. He's rushed for 157yds and 2TDs in 5 games.
Mac10 obviously has no historical data vs BUF.
2021 Red Zone QB Data:
Josh Allen: 105.0 QBR (3rd) with 18TD and 1INT. Rushing 18att for 68yd and 3TD
Mac Jones: 99.0 QBR (7th) with 12TD and 0INT. Rushing 6 att for 16yd and 0TD
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BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
Letterman one of the Manningcast guests. Cant find any other info on who the others are...
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
Looks like the rain has passed for the most part. Still a very dreary, dark cloudy day, but minimal rain or possibly pockets of snow for the rest of the day.
It's pretty windy...consistent winds right now, not necessarily gusts. Orchard Park is under a high wind warning but it appears to expire at 7 PM tonight. Temps have been steadily dropping all day, from mid-50s this morning to low-40s now, dropping closer to ~35 or so at kickoff. Could dip below freezing during the game. Wind will be a factor but maybe not as much as originally predicted, if the reports of the wind warning expiring at 7 are accurate. Inside the stadium is its own wind environment anyway, though.
Can't help but think the Patriots have a distinct advantage in these conditions. They don't turn the ball over and will be able to consistently run the ball. Bills inability to run will force Allen to have to make big plays, which aren't easy to come by against New England. Patriots are the hottest team in the NFL right now and this plays right into their hands. It'll probably be close, but I feel like the Bills will shoot themselves in the foot one too many times - a costly turnover or two, bad penalties - and the Patriots won't beat themselves. Patriots will win something like 24-17.
It's pretty windy...consistent winds right now, not necessarily gusts. Orchard Park is under a high wind warning but it appears to expire at 7 PM tonight. Temps have been steadily dropping all day, from mid-50s this morning to low-40s now, dropping closer to ~35 or so at kickoff. Could dip below freezing during the game. Wind will be a factor but maybe not as much as originally predicted, if the reports of the wind warning expiring at 7 are accurate. Inside the stadium is its own wind environment anyway, though.
Can't help but think the Patriots have a distinct advantage in these conditions. They don't turn the ball over and will be able to consistently run the ball. Bills inability to run will force Allen to have to make big plays, which aren't easy to come by against New England. Patriots are the hottest team in the NFL right now and this plays right into their hands. It'll probably be close, but I feel like the Bills will shoot themselves in the foot one too many times - a costly turnover or two, bad penalties - and the Patriots won't beat themselves. Patriots will win something like 24-17.
rockaction
Footballguy
Oh no! I secretly hate doing it. I was just giving you ####. Best of luck with your playoff aspirations. You never know. I've seen tons of six seeds in twelve team leagues just crush Weeks 14, 15, and 16 because of injuries or what have you. This year it'll be 15, 16, and 17, but you get what I'm saying.
Good luck. I was kidding yesterday and today. It's a pain to look up the odds, and I've been told I use the unreliable CBS Sports, which I only use because they're the easiest in Google to find odds, spread, over/under, etc.
Ay de mi.
Maybe we can get Insein to take the reins back. Peace, y'all.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I tend to lean the same way. If I thought the Patriots needed to lean on Jones to win I’d feel a lot more confident as McDermott is 7-2 against rookie QBs and they’ve thrown 4 TDs versus 13 INTs against his defenses. But I don’t think Jones has to do much for the Patriots to win. He just needs to make a few key quick throws to keep drives going and not turn the ball over. Those are things he excels at.
Buffalo’s best hope is to get an early turnover or two, go up 14+ points early, and put pressure on the Pats to throw the ball more than they’d like.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Excellent analysis and I want to play along with your scenario and Bills drop to 7-5, then a road trip next week off a MNF game down to Tampa where the weather is likely to be a lot warmer and my point is its possible they lose that game as well and now they're 7-6, where do they go from there? What's the path for them to the Playoffs?
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
When I first read about Dugger possibly missing, the impact was described as Knox having a big game, so now I'm confused how to determine impact on game script.
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
There's still a path to the playoff, but they'd need help. 3 of the 4 remaining games at that point would be the Falcons, Jets, Panthers. Gotta win those 3. 538 gives the Bills something like a 62% chance of making the playoffs even with a loss tonight and next week. Winning those 3 gets you to 10-7, assuming they lose in Foxboro. 10-7 with some help could get it done. The division is basically lost if the Bills lose tonight though.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Manning Cast tonight
1st-David Letterman, I hope he doesn't just sit there smug and make silly smiles for the camera. I'm told he's an avid sports fan but I've never seen him utter a word of football knowledge.
2nd Aquib Talib and I always like this guy in interviews, he's pretty raw and will not sugarcoat whatever he is watching plus he played for Coach BB, this could be great going into Halftime, kinda wish he was coming on in the 3rd Q BUT....
3rd Joe Buck and I guess if the game is close he could mildly interesting in the 2nd Half but I'm guessing he mostly just kisses Peyton's you know what the whole time.
1st-David Letterman, I hope he doesn't just sit there smug and make silly smiles for the camera. I'm told he's an avid sports fan but I've never seen him utter a word of football knowledge.
2nd Aquib Talib and I always like this guy in interviews, he's pretty raw and will not sugarcoat whatever he is watching plus he played for Coach BB, this could be great going into Halftime, kinda wish he was coming on in the 3rd Q BUT....
3rd Joe Buck and I guess if the game is close he could mildly interesting in the 2nd Half but I'm guessing he mostly just kisses Peyton's you know what the whole time.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I think Buffalo has talented enough receivers that short passes combined with YAC can provide a suitable alternative to deep passing impacts of bad weather.
On paper I would give NE and advantage in having an offense driven by Harris and Stevenson.
On paper I would give NE and advantage in having an offense driven by Harris and Stevenson.
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Boston
Footballguy
Actually, Collins could have an important role tonight...the weather is shaping up that Allen running could be a major factor in this game...Collins has the athleticism to make some plays if that is the case...on the flipside if Duggar doesn't play that is a real negative if this is going to be a run-heavy game.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Just spit balling, but I think the weather helps the Pats. On paper, they have a better running game, a more accurate passer who excels at short passes, solid special teams, and have been really doing well in the field position battle and time of possession of late. I want to say they have been doing better holding onto the ball and forcing turnovers (+13 turnovers in their winning streak while the Bills have turned it over 11 times in 4 games). But wet, windy conditions can often lead to turnovers based just on the weather.
By comparison, Allen has been more of a downfield passer (which could be impeded by the wind), the Bills have had games where they abandoned or couldn't get much going on the ground, and they have had a few games where they were gashed on the ground and were steamrolled against physical teams.
That being said, I hope Jones can stay level-headed and not wilt in a big game on national TV in inclement weather. We don't really know how he will fare in those situations. Normally I am not opposed to playing keep away with long time-consuming drives and settling for FGs when the defense has been so solid. Not sure they can rely on that tonight (or if they want to be kicking as much with the wind). If they can keep Allen in the pocket, that will help. I am guessing a lot of zone, a spy in the middle of the field, and try to get Allen to make some poor decisions like he did when he was younger. I think if NE sticks with the run, the Bills front defensive line will be worn down by the end of the game and the Pats will be able to keep running late in the game. At least that's the Disney version of the game script.
A split of the Buffalo games actually really helps the Bills, as they could end up holding the tie breaker with a better division record.
Boston
Footballguy
What scares me is Buffalo is more desperate right now...the Pats have been rolling and the Bills have had some bad games recently...with away games at Tampa and the Pats coming up, on paper this game may mean more to the Bills.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I think the Bills are pretty unlikely to win the division if they lose tonight, but it's not a totally lost cause. Splitting the series with NE but getting a win against the Jets guarantees us the tiebreaker since the Patriots lost to Miami earlier in the year. (We might get the tiebreaker even if we lose to the Jets, but at that point we just have too many losses and the tiebreaker wouldn't be an issue).
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Insoxicated
IMO Both coaches and teams know how important this game is. I think both these teams end up in the playoffs, but that 1 seed is extremely valuable given the parity in the AFC this year.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Yeah, we could probably talk ourselves into a bunch of narratives and intangibles that could influence the game. The main one I am not buying is that the boogeyman is back and the Bills are scared of NE. Another is BB wanting to atone for the abomination that was the Bills blowout at the end of last year so it's really important to him to win (like he would try less hard otherwise). I am not sure I buy into teams being more desperate as a story line for games (unless a team has locked up their playoff seeding), but I certainly can support the Pats are due for a clunker and have been playing over their heads. Put a better way, teams don't keep up a 25-point margin of victory for very long. Their numbers of late are not sustainable. That bubble is going to burst at some point . . . and the question will be whether they can play a B game or a C game and still win. I would say clearly not for a C level effort, but a B level outing and stealing an ugly win is still better than a pretty loss (or a morale victory).
IMO, NE comes out a little flat, plays a little scared out of the gate, and gets behind early. Not sure Mac can lead a comeback at this stage in his development in a hostile environment against a top opponent with potential weather issues. I still say he has some WTF was he thinking rookie moments in him that will rear their ugly heads at some point in the worst possible moments. I hope I am wrong, but it's tough to fully trust a rookie QB. If you want to then wrap that up and tie it together with a bow that the Bills were the more desperate team, that's as good a reason as any, I guess.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The Chiefs are looking very tough these days and have the easiest schedule left. IMO, they have a much easier path to a bye than NE does (or any other AFC team). But we've seen good teams look horrible against inferior opponents this year, so who knows how things will play out.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I'd say my bigger concern is the "overblown" nature of the current winning streak, given key injuries impacting the wins over Cleveland and Tennessee. NE might be proven to be a paper tiger tonight...we'll see.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Buffalo has the lowest YAC of any team in the league. They’re horrible at it. Not sure if it’s design, ball placement, or receivers, but they get almost all of their passing yards in the air.
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Insoxicated
Indeed. I'm DAMN glad the Pats have the Week 14 Bye to allow for some rest and game planning for the IND / BUF v2 games the next two weeks. This month is a gauntlet.
Hell... last week @ Miami is always a high risk game for us. Hopefully we got our annual loss to them out of the way back in September.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Neither team has faced many top tier teams. The Bills beat the Chiefs . . . but they also beat Jacoby Brissett, Taylor Heinicke, Davis Mills, Tua, Mike White, and Trevor Siemian. In a different thread, I compared some of those wins and gaudy numbers to the tomato can teams and QBs the Pats beat in the early part of the 2019. IMO, both teams are probably very good but not great. Both should be playoff teams but may not get far. But there are still plenty of games for fortunes to change for a lot of teams.
Boston
Footballguy
I don't think Buffalo is scared and they are a very good team but I do think this game is more important to them...the Bills have been bumpy recently...a home loss to the Pats with a road trip to Tampa next week and another one to Foxboro a couple of weeks after that puts them in a spot they'd rather not be.
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Dizzy
Footballguy
This is just terrible news... said the guy who is in the clubhouse, sitting on a lead, and playing against Josh Allen and Nick Folk.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
"We're here in super windy conditions tonight, 6-0 Buffalo as we go Midway thru the 3rd Q"
Riddick: "We talked about this Steve at that top of the broadcast that points were going to be hard to come by"
Griese: "Has anyone seen my flask?"
Riddick: "We talked about this Steve at that top of the broadcast that points were going to be hard to come by"
Griese: "Has anyone seen my flask?"
Dizzy
Footballguy
Riddick: "I'm telling you what... the meteorologists better have their big boy pants on tonight!"
In this season of thanks... I am thankful for the Manning Bros. MNF option.
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