Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
So here we are again friends. Another season of the National Football League(cue the MNF theme). I see the Shark Pool has lots of new faces and plenty of the old guard too. For those who have never read any of my preseason threads on buckets and tiers, allow me to give you the ground rules and help you enjoy this article more.
The 1st thing you will notice in this thread is no mention of any hard stats. That’s right, I do not project stats for hundreds of players in the NFL. One of the most simple reasons is I have so many stat geeks between the message boards, as well as tons of experts from FBG and other sites to do all this for me. It use to be fun when the info was hard to come by but now it is simply tedious and I hardly ever come up with night and day numbers from what the experts predict at FBG. I did use David Dodd’s ballpark numbers for total touches in order to come up with a grade in the ever important Opportunities column.
Another reason I think stats are way overused is that people treat them like they actually are going to happen. At best it’s a guess and at worst it’s a trap to which you lock onto players that you shouldn’t. No one knows exactly what Larry Johnson is going to produce this season…yes we have a pretty good idea of what he might achieve but what if we are wrong for some reason? Could we see it coming ahead of time if we stopped drilling in hard numbers through some algebraic equation that is far fetched in the first place? My answer is possibly yes.
What I have done is simply take 5 categories and assign letter grades to those 5 categories. Than I weigh them at a certain percentage, total the number, divide by 12, carry the 3…this sounds like those algebraic equations I just made fun of. Seriously, it’s much simpler and I think leads to a much better analysis and debate based on observations, player movements, coaching mindset, offensive scheme, etc… If you simply put Clinton Portis stats up based on his production the past couple of years in Washington, you are not taking into account the hiring of Al Saunders as the new OC and I think it makes a major difference.
So here are my 5 categories and also the percentage of weight I used for each category.
I.Opportunity: Simply put, how many times will the RB touch the ball approximately over the course of the season. You can have all the talent in the world but if you never touch the ball than you cannot put points up for my team. This category has a weight of 30% and I almost think it needs a higher weight but I left it at that.
II.Offensive Line: How good are the 5 guys at RB in front of the player. It’s really important to the success of any RB. This is different than surrounding talent. These 5 oversized blockers can make or break a season for FF owners. It stinks when you figure it out too late in the season. Think the Denver OL makes a difference for all these studs they produce? How bout the KC Chiefs? Think Minnesota will be better with the $50 million dollar Steve Hutchinson now lining up next to McKinnie? I put a weight of 30% on this.
III.Schedule: This is going to be long so relax. I think it matters how many potential cream puffs that a RB will face and also how many really tough defenses will be on the docket. Let’s look at what I felt were the toughest run defenses and next the easiest.
I took the ypc avg of defenses from last season…not yds per game…I think what they hold the opposing offense to on a ypc basis is a better indication of what they are capable of. Last year they finished as follows: Pitt, SD, TB, NE, CAR, SEA, MIAMI, Balt, Chi, Philly, SF…they all held the opposing offenses to under 4.0 ypc…3.9 and less. Next I went back and looked up ’03 and ’04 to see if any of these defenses consistently year in and year out can keep this great stat up…not so much but I found some that were on that list 2 out of the 3 years. A couple that have done it the past 2 years in a row which is strong. I also took the liberty of adding in a few that I felt were capable of returning or entering the list for a variety of reasons.
Pitt: ’05, ‘04
SD: ’05, ‘04
TB: ‘05
NE: ’05, ‘03
Car: ‘05
Sea: ‘05
Mia: ’05, ‘03
Balt: ’05, ’04, ‘03
Chi: ‘05
Phil: ‘05
SF: ‘05
Pitt: Strong defense and a great Safety that make them hard to run on
SD: They have done it 2 years in a row and they have a strong veteran LB crew
NE: 2 out of the last 3 years…BB is a great coach and will make them hard to run at
Miami: New coach has gotten them back on track in a hurry.
TB: Always tough on defense, no fun to enter their house and run on.
CAR: Only got tougher on defense, odds on favorite in many mags to run at the SB
Balt: They have been on all 3 years but have gotten worse each year…I left em for now.
CHI: Lovie Smith has got the defense in place he wants to grind out wins.
Wash: I added them because they have the most feared duo at Safety to help a talented front 7. Archuleta and Sean Taylor…OUCH! I see them as very tough to run on and 2 years ago held the opposition to just 3 ypc…they could return to that level.
Philly and SF I left off as I feel they overachieved a bit…not saying they will be awful but SF for instance lost a lot of players that were starting to come around and I see them taking a few steps back on defense this season.
Now let’s do the same for the easy rush defenses and identify them. Most of these teams let the opposition rush for at least 4.2 ypc and a lot of the allowed much more. From worst working up they were St Louis, Atl, Hou, Buff, Indy, NO, Cinci, Cle, Dallas, TN, Det…and here is the same breakdown over the past 3 seasons.
St.Louis: ’05, ’04, ‘03...just get worse and worse
Atlanta: ’05, ‘03...4.7 ypc last season...WOW!
Houston: ’05, ’04, ‘03...couldn't stop the run under Dom Capers.
Buff: ’05…but they got stinky in a hurry.
Indy: ’05, ’04, ’03...like a broken record
New Orleans: ’05, ’04, ‘03...AWFUL!
Cincinnati: ’05, ’04 ‘03...just has not happened there yet.
Cleveland: ’05, ‘04’ 03…but they are getting better
Dallas: ’05, ‘04...dirty secret about Dallas...can't stop the run.
Tennessee: ’05, ‘04...rebuilding right now
Detroit: ’05...not that bad.
I listed 12 defenses that I feel will be relatively soft to putrid in ’06…many are not hard to spot as they have been repeat offensders for years now. St.Louis, Hou, Buff, Indy, NO, Dallas, Tennessee, SF(they got a lot worse), NYJ(rebuilding), Oak (Got worse), Cinci, and Atlanta.
Now if I pick wrong I have insurance and here is why. For every team I identify with a strong defense that doesn’t measure up…there is probably a soft rush defense that I missed…nothing is 100%. So I use the best knowledge I have and try and make an analysis from there. TD are harder to figure out so I basically went on ypc and left it at that.
IV.Surrounding Cast is the QB and WR duo and sometimes the TE is thrown in where I think he makes a real difference for the team.
V.Intangibles is where I take into account things like injuries, coaching changes, player influx, and the ole gut feeling.
The schedule, surround cast, and intangibles combine to make about 40% of the scores. So it’s 60% Opps/OL, and 40% Sched, Surround Cast, and Intangibles. I think it’s a good ratio.
Now I try and put the players into tiers and buckets. There is a category for A, B, C..etc…some of the buckets are separated by just a little bit but nonetheless this system can work for you and also as a crosscheck for stat geeks to make sure they do not simply project the same numbers as last season.
3 pages later let’s get started with the A/A- group and work our way down.
“A” tier
Clinton Portis: WAS
3.6 A
ADP: 1.04
Opps: (A) Will likely touch the ball around 375 times for the season
OL: (B) 9th in ypc last season. 12th in rush TD. Good but not an elite OL yet.
Schedule: (A) Has a very nice setup with Hou, Ten, Indy, Atlanta, Dallas (2), on the schedule and get this…in weeks 15 and 16 he gets to feast on NO, and St. Louis on turf…holy snickerdoodles. Has 2 games against TB and Car in back to back weeks and otherwise you rarely even think twice about who he might have to play. He has one of the best schedules to succeed.
Surround Cast: (B) I like the quartet of Moss, Randle El, Lloyd, and C.Cooley. Brunell is not a stud but he is fine at QB and will get better as this offense gels under Saunders.
Intangibles: (A) Al Saunders, associate head coach and offense, end of story.
Larry Johnson: KC
3.5 A
ADP: 1.01
Opps: (A) Will likely touch the ball 375 times this season
OL: (A) 5th in ypc last season. 2nd in rush TD. Great OL still intact.
Schedule: (C+) For every cream puff he has a pretty tough matchup but the reality is you are never gonna look at match ups with this guy if you are lucky enough to get him.
Surround Cast: (B) Not a great WR in the group but Gonzo is still top3 in the league at TE. Green is a pretty decent starting QB.
Intangibles: (B+) Hard to give this grade with a new coach and losing the OC…here’s praying it doesn’t make a difference for him…Vermeil found a way to really motivate this guy. I have some serious reservations with Saunders gone, Vermeil gone, and Hermie taking over…but if I rate this as much less than LJ starts sliding out of the top5 and we can’t have that can we? If I had the #1 pick I would trade down to probably #4 and gladly take Portis…you should think about doing the same and upgrading your 2nd round and 4th round picks perhaps.
Tiki Barber: NYG
3.5 A
ADP: 1.05
Opps: (A) Most experts project him to touch it about 360 times this season
OL: (A) 2nd in ypc so don’t say this team cannot run block cause they can. Don’t kid yourself that this a bottom rung OL with a wonder boy in the backfield.
Schedule: (B-) Has games against Indy, Atlanta, Dallas (2), Houston, TN, NO in week 16…also has his fare share of tougher match ups.
Surround Cast: (C+) Has OK WR and an underachieving TE at times. Eli is coming along but they are not tearing it up yet.
Intangibles: (B) Getting a bit older but he still produces at a very high level. Able to dodge a lot of punishment and has the heart of a lion…he can play for me anytime.
The A- tier is pretty close and I don’t have a major problem if you swirl these 2 particular tiers into 1 if need be. All the RB in both tiers should be taken off the board before any WR or QB go IMO.
“A-“ tier
L.Tomlinson: SD
3.3 A-
ADP: 1.03
Opps: (A+) Has a real chance to touch the ball 400 times a season.
OL: (C+) This OL is not talent rich but they get the job done and can creat a little space for LT to operate.
Schedule: (A-) Oak and TN to open…YES! SF, St.Louis, Cinci, Oak again, Buff, really does not see too many stout defenses…a nice soft run schedule that helps counteract a few deficiencies in some other areas.
Surround Cast: (C-) An old WR as a #1, nothing really earth shattering out of the WR2 slot…Gates certainly compensates but then we have Phillip Rivers lining up under center with virtually no NFL experience. If I am a DC, I game plan against LT only and force Rivers to beat me.
Intangibles: (B+) I am sure he will have a good season with the fairly easy schedule, however this guy has not been on the field all the time the past 2 seasons. With 30 and 40 point performances also have come some below performances due to injuries and the like. He’s a stud but he has put a lot of wear and tear on that body.
Shaun Alexander: SEA
3.3 A-
ADP: 1.02
Opps: (A) Will likely touch the ball 375 times this season
OL: (B) The loss of Hutch cannot be measured just yet but certainly it has to be a major blow to the overall performance. It’s still a pretty good OL.
Schedule: (B) Only 3 really tough match ups against Chi SD and TB…the problem is he sees 2 of those 3 in weeks 16 and 17…hope the Seadogs have not locked up the division by that point but it’s highly likely. He faces a lot of soft defenses though leading up to that so enjoy.
Surround Cast: (A) Hass, DJax, Burleson back as a WR2 where he is comfy, and Engram at the WR3…this is a great trio of WR and Seattle could just line up and throw it if they want to.
Intangibles: (A) Guy is money on the ground. TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTD…over 27 rushing TD a year ago…guy is gold. Should live up to his draft slot…can you make a case for less than 1,500 yds and 12-15 TD from him…really that’s about the minimum for this cat.
Ronnie Brown: MIAMI
3.3 A-
ADP: 1.09
Opps: (B) Should touch the ball at least 300 times this season.
OL: (B+) 7th in ypc last season, Houck is the OL coach and he is perhaps the best in the NFL…really milks the most out of his guys. Even if they are not the best talent wise I look at the OL coach quite a bit too. Houck’s resume speaks for itself.
Schedule: (A) Buff (2), TN, Hou, NYJ(2), Indy…really has a lot of mediocre teams on the schedule at stopping the run. Plays a lot of the easy ones early in the season…could draft him then trade him for an even better RB 5-6 games into the season. Gotta think ahead a bit too.
Surround Cast: (B) Chambers, CPepp, McMichael…this is a pretty talented group around him and I don’t think you can argue it much.
Intangibles: (B) A little concerned about the work load but he wasn’t picked #4 in the draft to carry the ball 12-15 times a game…he’s gonna see a lot of work. Draft him in the 1st round and be excited.
Edge: AZ
3.3 A-
ADP: 1.07
Opps: (A-) Looking at about 350 touches for the season.
OL: (D+) Horrible OL to date. This is an area of concern for sure.
Schedule: (A+) SF, StLouis, KC, Oak, GB, Dall, Det, MN, St Louis again, SF again…hardest game is against SD all the way in week 17…this schedule is absolute cake…and even with an inept OL he will have chances to explode…awesome schedule.
Surround Cast: (A) Fitz and Boldin are a deadly duo that can stretch the field from all angles…and Warner can still chuck it down the field to them. He is losing quite abit from Manning to Warner/Leinart…but I can’t see going from Wayne/Harrison to Fitz/Boldin as much of a loss at all at this stage. Not many RB have 2 potential 100rec WR lining up on the outside…how is a Safety going to sneak up…they can’t!
Intangibles: (A) Edge makes a great prize for people that have to wait till the middle of the 1st round. People point to an OL that doesn’t perform but Edge will make them better as he did in Indy. I look for him to perform as well in Arizona on grass…he is gonna flourish in the heat as he did at the “U”.
There really is not a B+ tier…so IMO there is a significant drop off after the 1st 7 RB go off the board. You really need to start planning what you are going to do at the bottom of the late middle and late 1st round. It might be unwise to blindly pick RB/RB on the turn…I would at least start thinking about a top tier WR or Manning in 6pt passTD leagues.
“B” tier
Tatum Bell: Denver
2.9 B
ADP: 4.05
Opps: © Somewhere in the range of about 250 times. I am basing it on experts and the FBG mag which is basically David Dodd’s projection work. This number has the potential to be larger.
OL: (A) Just keep making household names out of 6th round draft picks, Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns, Olandis Gary, the list keeps going.
Schedule: (C+) Not super easy and not incredibly tough either. Somewhere in the middle
Surround Cast: (B) Plummer can light it up at times. Rod Smith and Walker make a nice 1-2 punch at WR…we will see if Lelie steps up his game from the 3 hole now.
Intangibles: (A) I am high on Tatum Bell this season but I didn’t project big numbers…I simply am plugging in my formula to his situation…if the touches were to move closer to perhaps 300…he might easily be a 1st round talent in a redraft. Don’t be so quick to dismiss him or buy into the Shanny is the devil argument. Use your brain…someone has to rack up yds in Denver…you really think Ron Dayne can produce 1,200-1,500 yds on the ground? He has never come anywhere close to that…if he can it would be in a Broncos uniform. I think you can secure both of them and ride the hot hand as Shanny will likely do at times this season.
Steven Jackson: St Louis
2.9 B
ADP: 1.06
Opps: (B+) somewhere in the 320-330 range…has some potential for more.
OL: (C+) Pace is a great cornerstone for this unit but the rest are getting old or are simply average. Were 12th in ypc last season.
Schedule: © Not a lot of easy games but not brutal either.
Surround Cast: (B) Holt is super, Bruce is aging…like Curtis, and Bulger is OK as long as he is healthy but he never performed like Warner did in this offense.
Intangibles: (A) Has a terrible defense so he may be get lots of opps when the Rams are down 7 and 14 points…even if they throw a lot because they play from behind this is a very talented skill set on offense.
Dom Davis: Houston
2.8 B
ADP: 2.01
Opps: (B-) Projections are between 280-290…could creep higher if he totes the rock a bit more. Excellent receiver and gets a lot of touches out of the backfield.
OL: (B) It’s better than some think. At least when it comes to rush blocking. Tied for 9th in the league with 4.2 ypc. Hard to dispute.
Schedule: (A) A ton of easy match ups for him. Houston gets Indy and TN both twice. Also will see Buf, NYJ, and Oak…he has some real potential with this schedule.
Surround Cast: (C-) Till Carr can prove he can lead this team the score will always drag DD down. C- might be generous at this point.
Intangibles (B) Houston passed on Reggie Bush and maybe they knew better at this point and time. I like Gary Kubiak as the new head coach…look for big improvements on the offensive side of the ball. DD should be a big target towards the end of the 1st round…has some potential for a huge season.
Rudi Johnson: Cincinnati
2.8 B
ADP: 1.11
Opps: (B+) Looking at about 320 and most of it on the ground…could see a few more touches.
OL: (B) This OL is good but isn’t great. They get a few too many props in my book. They were 9th in ypc last season…good enough
Schedule: (D) I’m being generous. Baltimore and Pitt both twice…I realize he can put up numbers on them. Has 3 games in a row against NE, TB, and CAR. Has SD…does have Oak and Indy in weeks 14 and 15…right when the playoffs start.
Surround Cast: (A) Solid QB, elite WR, good WR2 and WR3…he plays in a very explosive offense.
Intangibles: (B) I am sure he will have another good year on the ground…wish he didn’t get all his points from rushing the ball.
Not far behind is the next group. Many you will want to grab within the 1st 2 rounds of a traditional 12 team draft. Remember that I am not advocating that you take the RB in order of how I list them…you must use ADP and also look at the value that you can find.
“B-“ tier
“Cadillac” Williams: Tampa Bay
2.7 B-
ADP: 1.11
Opps: (A-) Projected to be around 350 times this season.
OL: (C-) This is still a work in progress to me. 32nd in rush TD last season…not that great in and around the goal line in my mind.
Schedule: (C-) Not an easy schedule. CAR (2), Balt, Wash, Pitt, @Chi in week 15…he has a few easy games too but this is far from a cupcake schedule.
Surround Cast: (B-) OK, Simms is a concern but Galloway and a healthy Clayton make a dynamic duo on the outside. Pittman possibly for a breather here and there. I like the pieces on offense.
Intangibles: © Has not shown he can carry a full load all season…if he breaks down again for a month like he did last season then owners are going to be cursing him.
Willie Parker: Pitt
2.7 B-
ADP: 3.01
Opps: (B) Experts projecting around 300 touches this season.
OL: (B) Everyone thinks this is an elite OL…I am not sure it is actually a superior line. Oh it’s good but I don’t put them on the same level as Denver or KC necessarily. They were 12th in the league in ypc…they just run the ball a lot so they end up near the top in rushing but this is not an elite OL.
Schedule: (C-) Tough schedule…not gonna be a lot of cream puffs on this schedule.
Surround Cast: (B) Roth and Ward make for a good air attack behind him.
Intangibles: (B) If he is starting and gets 18-20 carries a week then good things will happen, it’s that simple…but don’t think he is a top5 RB for a minute.
Ron Dayne: Denver
2.6 B-
ADP: 6.12
Opps: (D) If he only touches it 175 times then he is not gonna be a top RB this season. It is the difference for him being down here and being in the upper buckets. If he truly wins the starting nod he should touch the ball in the 275-300 range.
OL: (A) See Tatum Bell
Schedule: (C+) See Tatume Bell
Surround Cast: (B) See Tatum Bell
Intangibles: (B) He has all the help around him to succeed…but will he win the job and be the man on 1st and 2nd down in Denver? I have my doubts but you have to listen to Shanny and I see him flying up the charts is he can touch the ball north of 275 times for the season. Don’t be afraid of the Denver RB spot.
I haven’t listed the RB you are locked in on the 1st round yet? Might want to rethink your analysis friend.
“C+” tier
Lamont Jordan: Oak
2.5 C+
ADP: 1.08
Opps: (B+) 320-330
OL: (D+) Finished 20th in ypc and 29th in rushing with the aid of Norv Turner mind you…better pray that Jordan continues to catch a lot of balls because his OL is not that good right now.
Schedule: (C+) Pretty in the middle…not too many cream puffs and not too many hardnose defenses either.
Surround Cast: (B) Moss and porter are great…not sure how Brooks is gonna do. Same field where he threw it backwards last season…I’m sure Oakland fans are really excited about him.
Intangibles: (B) He is a good runner and should jump ahead of where I have put him but I have to go with my theory and this is where he ends up. The OL could really be a detriment to him improving. I think #7 in the draft is way too high for this guy in 2006. he was a good deal last season but too high this year.
Brian Westbrook: Philly
2.5 C+
ADP: 2.02
Opps: © As always, will have a hard time getting a lot of carries but makes up for it with his receptions
OL: © 16th in the league in ypc rushing…that’s not a great RB team in my mind.
Schedule: (B+) Very very nice with a lot of fairly easy rush defenses…problem is he doesn’t usually run more than 10-12 times a game so he rarely takes advantage of this.
Surround Talent: © QB is great but there is little on the outside to scare any CB from the opposing teams. Also the Safeties can creep up if they need to.
Intangibles: (B) I gave him a decent grade here. I am not a big fan of Westy in leagues that do not reward receptions. He still is a great option to pop in around 100 yds combined every week assuming he is healty…and probably score 8TD or so over the course of the whole season. He is a good RB2.
Reuben Droughns: Cleveland
2.5 C+
ADP: 3.07
Opps: (B+) 340 touches seems to be the general consensus. That’s a lot of ball handling from this spot in the draft.
OL: (B-) I am of the notion that this is one of the best OL that the new Cleveland team has seen. Granted it’s been bad for a long time but this looks much better…Bentley and Shaffer come in and solidify the line.
Schedule: (C-) There are a lot of tough rund defenses he will see…but also some fairly easy ones too. It’s either one or the other most weeks…not a lot of middle of the road defenses like so many other RBs get.
Surround Cast: (D) I’m being generous. Charlie Frye is your starting QB? Edwards and JJ are decent at the WR spots but Edwards is still unproven, JJ is best as a compliment type…and don’t get me started on KWII. Lots of questions on offense but I doubt Cleveland will try and air it out much so expect Droughns to pound the rock a lot.
Intangibles: © Can’t get too excited over 2 TD last season. Hope that improves but there is no denying the value he has in this particular tier. I think he makes an excellent RB2 if he can up those TD to something like 6-8 this season.
Julius Jones: Dallas
2.5 C+
ADP: 2.10
Opps: (B) Should touch the ball about 320 times this season.
OL: (D) 25th in the league in ypc last season. Maybe Allen leaving is a good thing? I doubt it. I just am not high on their OL which I think will be better at pass blocking so Bledsoe can air it out to TO, Glenn, and Witten. Even though it’s Bill Parcells you might see this team throw first then try and run.
Schedule: (B-) A good mix of teams. Lots of middle of the road defenses which cannot hurt him.
Surround Cast: (A-) Owens, Glenn, a healthy Crayton in the slot, and Witten…hard to defend them all thru the air. Bledsoe can still deliver the ball and has lots of weapons.
Intangibles: (B) A lot of owners are going to gloss over JJ but I see some value here. Lock up MBIII later and you might be just fine. I am concerned over the OL but hopefully the air attack will stretch the defense and allow the running game to flourish a bit.
Warrick Dunn: Atlanta
2.5 C+
ADP: 3.12
Opps: (B) about 300-320 for the season
OL: (B) Vick tends to balloon the numbers a bit with the ypc. The Falcons do rank 1st with 4.8 ypc but temper your enthusiasm. Did get Gandy to sign in the off season.
Schedule: (D+) Schedule is tough…gonna see TB and CAR twice. Wash, Pitt and Balt will not be real fun either.
Surround Cast: © Mediocre WRs, a QB that is exciting but not great thru the air, and a very talented TE in Crumpler…average when you mix it all up.
Intangibles © Not getting any younger…but he will be asked to run the ball 15+ times a game. Wish they could get the ball in his hands more out of the backfield. He remains a viable RB2 in almost any league. Will have a few big games that balloon the stats a bit too.
Thomas Jones: Chicago
2.5 C+
ADP: 5.11
Opps: (C+) The call is for about 275 touches. You can make a case that Cedric Benson will be much more involved in the offense this season.
OL: B+ Mean and nasty. They just like to line up and ram it down your throat till you choke…3 yds and a pile of dust ought to be stitched into their jerseys. 7th in ypc with 4,3 and 17th in rush TD.
Schedule: (B) Not a ton of stout defenses on the schedule. Bodes well for him.
Surround Cast: (D) Just a total lack of punch thru the air.
Intangibles: © I am not excited about a player trying to fend off an extremely high draft pick from last season…course TJ was in the same boat as Benson is when he was with the Cardinals and Pittman was playing ahead of him. I just have a gut feeling that Benson will a lot more action this season…and maybe a bit of the Bears magic from last season will be gone.
Joseph Addai: Indy
2.4 C+
ADP: 5.04
Opps: (C-) A lot of sites are coming up with a round 200…I think that could be on the low side especially when he beats out for Rhodes for the starting spot…OOPS!
OL: (D+) A much better pass blocking group then they are at run blocking.
24th in ypc with 3.7 last season…ouch!
Schedule: (A) They get HOU (2), NYJ, TEN (2), Buff, Dallas, Cinci…they get Cinci and Houston in weeks 15 and 16…very nice!
Surround Cast: (A+) Do I have to explain this?
Intangibles: (B) Just give him the ball…oh how I pray Tony Dungy and the OC utilize this kid. If you do not get him and he starts off slow I would trade for him. An easy Schedule, Surround Cast, and Dominic Rhodes cannot be a bad thing. I think locking up the Indy backfield is smart if you are not getting an early pick in the draft…or it could be a nice gamble for someone that got Portis/LJ/Shaun in the early part of the draft too.
Fred Taylor: Jacksonville
2.4 C+
ADP: 5.12
Opps: © 250 touches for the season is the expert consensus it seems. He’s a dangerous RB to predict. His production has fallen the past coupke of years from 8…20…33 granted he has had injuries but you have to factor that in with Freddie.
OL: © They are OK
Schedule: (A) Surprise, surprise, surprise…another AFC South RB and another cake and I do mean cake schedule. No less than 9 pretty soft defenses that he will face this season.
Surround Cast: © Lot os unproven talent all over the place.
Intangibles: © The gut is saying he makes a return this season. His back ups behind him have not really done anything that I would call “special”. That said this spot is more indicative of a favorable schedule really. Whoever runs the ball in Jax as the starter is going to do well. Jones or Pearman will need to be secured as a handcuff.
Chester Taylor: Minnesota
2.4 C+
ADP: 3.09
Opps: © Somewhere around 250 touches but I imagine that has the potential to be higher.
OL: (B+) McKinnie and Hutch make for a powerful left side of the OL. This is now an OL to really be reckoned with.
Schedule: (C-) Far from a cupcake schedule. But the OL should balance that a bit.
Surround Cast: (C-) Brad Johnson does not excite more. The WR are mostly average at this point.
Intangibles: © This year’s Lamont Jordan? People are hoping. I think his backup is talented enough to take a big bite out of his total potential. If taylor ends up touching the ball 300 times then his stats have the potential to be in one of the upper tiers.
That was a large tier and the next one is pretty big as well. Again you can move them up and down the tiers as you see fit.
“C” tier
Corey Dillon: New England
2.2 C
ADP: 4.09
Opps: (C-) 200 touches
OL: (C-) Injuries hurt them last season. Ranked 29th with 3.4 ypc. Yikes!
Schedule: (A) Has a bunch of rushing cake games. I count about 7 easy match ups and only 3 real juggernauts on the schedule.
Surround Cast: (B) Top notch QB and an improving WR corp…also has a nice TE combo around him.
Intangibles: (D) Rookie pushing him for playing time. His production in term of rushing between the 20s went downhill last season. I see Dillon moving into a Jerome Bettis like role. He will get the touches inside the 10 and 20 but I don’t see him racking up tons of yards…in TD only leagues he will be much more valuable.
Dhominic Rhodes: Indy
2.2 C
ADP: 6.06
Opps: (C-) 200
OL: (D+) See J.Addai
Schedule: (A) See J.Addai
Surround Cast: (A+) See J.Addai
Intangibles: (D) Never has shown the burst after he injured his knee some seasons back. I think Addai will be the guy who gets the carries between the 20s and Rhodes will be more of a TD vulture than anything. If he wins the starting job however he is quite valuable. I like locking the Indy backfield up…one of them will prove starter material. The gut says the rookie will succeed.
Kevin Jones: Detroit
2.1 C
ADP: 2.10
Opps: © 250 touches
OL: (D+): 25th in the league with 3.6 ypc…they struggle too much for all the top picks over the years they have invested in the OL.
Schedule: (B-) Not too hard and not too soft.
Surround Cast: (B-) Lot of untapped talent at the WR spot. QB will see a nice change with Kitna at the controls. I think Detroit will score more points this season.
Intangibles: (B) I think the offense for Detroit will be better but he still has a challenging OL to block in front of him. Martz will speed up the air attack and KJ will find more room to roam on the ground. I think there is upside here but you do not want to invest too high in KJ.
Willis McGahee: Buffalo
2.0 C
ADP: 2.05
Opps: (B+) 325-340 sounds about right. Lot of touches to be this far down in the order but let’s take a look at the rest of the categories to get a better idea.
OL: (D) This is one of the worst in the leagues. 20th in rush with 3.8 ypc. 29th in rush TD. They lost Mike Williams and Trey Teague in the off season. I just do not see anything to really write home about here.
Schedule: (D+) Does see a few easy games but has a fairly hard schedule with no less than 7 teams that either held the opposition under 3.9 ypc last season or are improved enough to make that leap this season.
Surround Cast: (D) Terrible. QB position is in disarray…lost Moulds, Parrish is unproven on the outside…nothing to get excited over. We’ll see what lee Evans does as the #1WR in this offense now.
Intangibles: (D) I never predict injuries but when you have a bad OL and no one to deliver the ball thru the air…disaster is waiting to happen. I think WM could be in jeopardy of getting himself killed in this offense this season. I am not real high on his upside for 2006…but that does not mean I think McGahee is void of any and all talent because I don’t. He can be a special player but not the way this offense is set up right now.
Jamal Lewis: Baltimore
2.0 C
ADP: 3.06
Opps: © 250 touches. Mike Anderson will see the ball some but if Lewis can return to form with a healthy off season then this number could rise to as much as 300.
OL: (D+) Has Ogden gotten old in a hurray? The rest of the OL is very mediocre. Nothing special here right now.
Schedule: © Mix of hard and easy. The easy games are countered with difficult match ups. This category should not make or break your decision for Lewis.
Surround Talent: © When McNair is healthy then this is probably a higher grade. McNair with Mason and Clayton have the potential to stretch the defenses…something the Ravens have not had in quite some time.
Intangibles: © You cannot discount the signing of Mike Anderson and his 4 year $8 million deal. He will see the field…especially on short yardage IMO.
DeShaun Foster: Carolina
2.0 C
ADP: 4.05
Opps: © 250…if he can stay healthy
OL: (C-) This is not one of the better OL in the league. In fact they ranked 29th with 3.4 ypc last season but 8th in rush TD…that should tell you something.
Schedule: © Just mediocre. Not always a bad thing as match ups can not always be predicted.
Surround Cast: (A) He has Steve Smith and Keyshaun Johnson on the outside to harass the secondaries. Smith has to be double teamed…Keyshawn can eat up a corner 1 on 1 with short out routes to the sidelines. Safeties will not be able to sneak up on the line a whole lot. Delhomme is a fine NFL QB who delivers the ball well and has been to a Super Bowl and 2 NFC Championships…he has the experience and will keep the air attack moving.
Intangibles: (D) Major injury risk…this guy is never healthy so why will this year be any different. I love the kid behind him and have no problem drafting Foster and then taking DeAngelo Williams with him to fill up my RB2/RB3 spots.
Frank Gore: San Fran
2.0 C
ADP: 7.01
Opps: (C-) We are looking at about 200 right now but that could soar upwards if he is declared the starter.
OL: © Larry Allen comes in from Dallas…I like it. They were 16th in the league with 3.9 ypc last season. There is some room for optimism here.
Schedule: (B) Other than week 6 and 7 match ups with San Diego and Chicago you will be hard pressed to find any juggernauts on the schedule. It is not nearly as easy as some others I highlighted but really no long stretches against tough defenses at this point.
Surround Cast: (D) Alex Smith, Bryant, Arnaz Battle, and a rookie all star TE named Vernon Davis. Lot to prove.
Intangibles: (C+) The 49ers will be terrible on defense this season. They will get lot so of opps to be on offense because of that. Unfortunately they have a lot of unproven talent on offense. I like Gore, think he is now 2-3 years from his serious knee injuries in college so he may be even better than last season. He showed some flashes as a rookie including 19/79, 10/68 with 2 TD, and 25/108 in the final 3 weeks of the season. He is going to be very involved with the offense this season. I also like the addition of Norv Turner. If you think Barlow is a better fit that’s fine…but I think one of them will be the clear starter and you can get both of them at later positions in the draft…beyond the 1st 4-5 rounds is what I’m saying.
Cedric Benson: Chicago
2.0 C
ADP: 5.09
Opps: (D-) 150 touches…not even 10 a game. I just have a hard time thinking this guy will not be on the field much.
OL: (B+) See T.Jones
Schedule: (B) See T.Jones
Surround Talent: (D) See T.Jones
Intangibles: © If he can get on the field more he is going to be a huge pick up later in the draft for folks. Where would he be picked up if he were #3 off the board this season? I think he has to be looked at and not overlooked in Chicago. Easiest way to get him is T.Jones earlier in the draft and then handcuff him to Benson. Chicago should run the ball well this season.
Ahman Green: Green Bay
1.9 C
ADP: 6.05
Opps: (C-) 225 touches from most experts.
OL: (D+) Lot of problems on that OL.
Schedule: (B-) Not that bad.
Surround Cast: (C+) Brett Favre, Donald Driver, Bubba Franks…not the worst you are going to find. They are going to be behind a lot so look for the offense to move it up and down the field…depending on how the OL responds.
Intangibles: © I think the injury he suffered will be hard to bounce right back from. Still he only has to fight off Gado at this point. At some point in the draft someone will have a player that does have some upside as a possible RB2.
Chris Brown: Tennessee
1.9 C
ADP: 7.03
Opps: (C-) 200 touches
OL: (C-) Added Mawae…lost Hopkins to retirement. 2 starting Tackles with limited experience but a decent interior part of the OL…if Mawae misses significant time then you would quickly have an ugly situation.
Schedule: (B) Plays in the AFC South so there are lots of good match ups for him or any Titan RB.
Surround Cast: (D) Volek and the rookie under center. Bennett and Givens will make for a decent combo. If Volek could catch some of that magic from 2004 you might have something…but there is a lot to prove here. I do think the Titans defense is something to be desired and they will have to score 30+ to stay in it most weeks…that’s good for offense players in FF.
Intangibles: (D) I don’t really see him holding down the starting spot for long. LenDale White will have a chip on his shoulder and is better suited to run between the Tackles where they have a better chance to run. Take him but you better handcuff him quickly to White. There is some merit and value in the Titans on offense this season.
Update: Chris Brown has requested a trade in writing to the Titans...the road is being paved for LenDale White...could be the darkhorse for ROTY after he was not taken in the 1st round of the draft...this guy was a monster at USC.
Curtis Martin: New York Jets
1.7 C-
ADP: 7.01
Opps: (C-) 200 touches roughly...although if he's healthy that number would move up significantly.
OL: (D+) They lost Mawae and weren't all that great before that move. 28th in the NFL last season with 3.5 ypc...yuck!
Schedule: (C+) Quite a few favorable match ups.
Surround Cast: (C-) QB is a mess...WR are average really...nothing special, sorry.
Intangibles: (D) Has value later rather than earlier...old and now starting to break down...not gonna get much help to take the heat of him either.
Reggie Bush: New Orleans
1.7 C-
ADP: 3.10
Opps: © 260 touches roughly…can’t imagine Deuce is ready to go.
OL: (D) Oh my goodness is this OL in heaps of trouble.
Schedule: (D) Brutal schedule. Lots of juggernauts on tap for NO…plays in the same division as TB and CAR so it just will not be a fun go of it.
Surround Talent: (B) Horn and Stallworth make for a nice 1-2 punch at WR…have to wait and see if Brees is 100% and ready to air it out.
Intangibles: © The Saints will be playing from behind this year…a lot! So maybe they will get a lot of opps on offense. The OL and schedule however do not make me highly optimistic for Reggie in season number 1. I don’t see how Deuce will be ready 100% to go for 2006.
OK now there are a lot of back ups that score out in the C-/D+ category but many have a lot of merit. I will name a few. Most of the low scores are simply from the lack of opps they will get because of who is starting in front of them. In no particular order they are.
Deuce McAllister: New Orleans…should be handcuffed to Reggie Bush
LenDale White: Tennessee…I see him eventually taking over there this year.
DeAngelo Williams: Carolina…will see the field this season whether by way of injury or simply playing better than Foster.
Laurence Maroney: New England…temper the enthusiasm as NE has a RB they like already in front of him. If Dillon has lost a step or two then you might see him hit the field a little more.
Kevan Barlow: San Fran…could see a resurgence under norv Turner…but he has had so many chances before.
Marion Barber III: Dallas…certainly in the mix there and a must have for Julius Jones owners. The leash is going to be real short on JJ and Parcells still might use both backs and split the carries a bit.
Chris Perry: Cincinnati…if Rudi were to go down many FF owners would be eager to see this kid in the backfield. He is a much better receiver than Rudi will ever be.
Greg Jones: JAX…pick a player on Jax as the backup, you can toss Pearman in the mix too.
Mewelde Moore: Minnesota…just seems to be destined as a backup in Minnesota no matter what he does.
Mike Anderson: Baltimore…Lewis owners need to be aware he is now the backup in Baltimore and could see some significant time if pressed into action.
Duce Staley: Pittsburgh…I see him pimped as a steal late in the draft…I hold very little value for this guy at this stage in his career, sorry.
Cedric Houston: NYJets…CMart is starting to break down, this guy is another potential
strong backup if an injury were to happen in front of him.
Samkon Gado: Green Bay…draft Green…you better grab Gado too.
Priest Holmes: Kansas City…have to put him somewhere. Not sure he is ever going to make it back but if he did I am sure he would carry the ball a little bit in KC…what a nighmare for LJ owners if he was actually cleared to play and got 8-12 carries a game.
Let’s land the plane. I am certainly not telling you to pick Ron Dayne before you take Lamont Jordan. Mainly because you can grab him several rounds later. What I am highlighting is the potential of some of these RB based on analysis and not just stats. Stats are the by product of Opps…OL…Sched…Surround Cast…and some Intangibles. If you like the theory but hate the way the RB come up then go ahead and make some changes…maybe you think someone has an easier or harder schedule…perhaps you see some player getting a lot more carries or “potential” amount of touches. I have no problem with any of that. I got my defense analysis from NFL.com…and my touches were mostly from David Dodds and the absolute excellent never to be duplicated FBG.com Mag which was a real treat to read. Hopefully not everyone in your draft brings that with them or your in big trouble.
Thanks for taking the time to read this, I hope you get something out of it and I look forward to your feedback and criticisms.
Have a great season!
The 1st thing you will notice in this thread is no mention of any hard stats. That’s right, I do not project stats for hundreds of players in the NFL. One of the most simple reasons is I have so many stat geeks between the message boards, as well as tons of experts from FBG and other sites to do all this for me. It use to be fun when the info was hard to come by but now it is simply tedious and I hardly ever come up with night and day numbers from what the experts predict at FBG. I did use David Dodd’s ballpark numbers for total touches in order to come up with a grade in the ever important Opportunities column.
Another reason I think stats are way overused is that people treat them like they actually are going to happen. At best it’s a guess and at worst it’s a trap to which you lock onto players that you shouldn’t. No one knows exactly what Larry Johnson is going to produce this season…yes we have a pretty good idea of what he might achieve but what if we are wrong for some reason? Could we see it coming ahead of time if we stopped drilling in hard numbers through some algebraic equation that is far fetched in the first place? My answer is possibly yes.
What I have done is simply take 5 categories and assign letter grades to those 5 categories. Than I weigh them at a certain percentage, total the number, divide by 12, carry the 3…this sounds like those algebraic equations I just made fun of. Seriously, it’s much simpler and I think leads to a much better analysis and debate based on observations, player movements, coaching mindset, offensive scheme, etc… If you simply put Clinton Portis stats up based on his production the past couple of years in Washington, you are not taking into account the hiring of Al Saunders as the new OC and I think it makes a major difference.
So here are my 5 categories and also the percentage of weight I used for each category.
I.Opportunity: Simply put, how many times will the RB touch the ball approximately over the course of the season. You can have all the talent in the world but if you never touch the ball than you cannot put points up for my team. This category has a weight of 30% and I almost think it needs a higher weight but I left it at that.
II.Offensive Line: How good are the 5 guys at RB in front of the player. It’s really important to the success of any RB. This is different than surrounding talent. These 5 oversized blockers can make or break a season for FF owners. It stinks when you figure it out too late in the season. Think the Denver OL makes a difference for all these studs they produce? How bout the KC Chiefs? Think Minnesota will be better with the $50 million dollar Steve Hutchinson now lining up next to McKinnie? I put a weight of 30% on this.
III.Schedule: This is going to be long so relax. I think it matters how many potential cream puffs that a RB will face and also how many really tough defenses will be on the docket. Let’s look at what I felt were the toughest run defenses and next the easiest.
I took the ypc avg of defenses from last season…not yds per game…I think what they hold the opposing offense to on a ypc basis is a better indication of what they are capable of. Last year they finished as follows: Pitt, SD, TB, NE, CAR, SEA, MIAMI, Balt, Chi, Philly, SF…they all held the opposing offenses to under 4.0 ypc…3.9 and less. Next I went back and looked up ’03 and ’04 to see if any of these defenses consistently year in and year out can keep this great stat up…not so much but I found some that were on that list 2 out of the 3 years. A couple that have done it the past 2 years in a row which is strong. I also took the liberty of adding in a few that I felt were capable of returning or entering the list for a variety of reasons.
Pitt: ’05, ‘04
SD: ’05, ‘04
TB: ‘05
NE: ’05, ‘03
Car: ‘05
Sea: ‘05
Mia: ’05, ‘03
Balt: ’05, ’04, ‘03
Chi: ‘05
Phil: ‘05
SF: ‘05
Pitt: Strong defense and a great Safety that make them hard to run on
SD: They have done it 2 years in a row and they have a strong veteran LB crew
NE: 2 out of the last 3 years…BB is a great coach and will make them hard to run at
Miami: New coach has gotten them back on track in a hurry.
TB: Always tough on defense, no fun to enter their house and run on.
CAR: Only got tougher on defense, odds on favorite in many mags to run at the SB
Balt: They have been on all 3 years but have gotten worse each year…I left em for now.
CHI: Lovie Smith has got the defense in place he wants to grind out wins.
Wash: I added them because they have the most feared duo at Safety to help a talented front 7. Archuleta and Sean Taylor…OUCH! I see them as very tough to run on and 2 years ago held the opposition to just 3 ypc…they could return to that level.
Philly and SF I left off as I feel they overachieved a bit…not saying they will be awful but SF for instance lost a lot of players that were starting to come around and I see them taking a few steps back on defense this season.
Now let’s do the same for the easy rush defenses and identify them. Most of these teams let the opposition rush for at least 4.2 ypc and a lot of the allowed much more. From worst working up they were St Louis, Atl, Hou, Buff, Indy, NO, Cinci, Cle, Dallas, TN, Det…and here is the same breakdown over the past 3 seasons.
St.Louis: ’05, ’04, ‘03...just get worse and worse
Atlanta: ’05, ‘03...4.7 ypc last season...WOW!
Houston: ’05, ’04, ‘03...couldn't stop the run under Dom Capers.
Buff: ’05…but they got stinky in a hurry.
Indy: ’05, ’04, ’03...like a broken record
New Orleans: ’05, ’04, ‘03...AWFUL!
Cincinnati: ’05, ’04 ‘03...just has not happened there yet.
Cleveland: ’05, ‘04’ 03…but they are getting better
Dallas: ’05, ‘04...dirty secret about Dallas...can't stop the run.
Tennessee: ’05, ‘04...rebuilding right now
Detroit: ’05...not that bad.
I listed 12 defenses that I feel will be relatively soft to putrid in ’06…many are not hard to spot as they have been repeat offensders for years now. St.Louis, Hou, Buff, Indy, NO, Dallas, Tennessee, SF(they got a lot worse), NYJ(rebuilding), Oak (Got worse), Cinci, and Atlanta.
Now if I pick wrong I have insurance and here is why. For every team I identify with a strong defense that doesn’t measure up…there is probably a soft rush defense that I missed…nothing is 100%. So I use the best knowledge I have and try and make an analysis from there. TD are harder to figure out so I basically went on ypc and left it at that.
IV.Surrounding Cast is the QB and WR duo and sometimes the TE is thrown in where I think he makes a real difference for the team.
V.Intangibles is where I take into account things like injuries, coaching changes, player influx, and the ole gut feeling.
The schedule, surround cast, and intangibles combine to make about 40% of the scores. So it’s 60% Opps/OL, and 40% Sched, Surround Cast, and Intangibles. I think it’s a good ratio.
Now I try and put the players into tiers and buckets. There is a category for A, B, C..etc…some of the buckets are separated by just a little bit but nonetheless this system can work for you and also as a crosscheck for stat geeks to make sure they do not simply project the same numbers as last season.
3 pages later let’s get started with the A/A- group and work our way down.
“A” tier
Clinton Portis: WAS
3.6 A
ADP: 1.04
Opps: (A) Will likely touch the ball around 375 times for the season
OL: (B) 9th in ypc last season. 12th in rush TD. Good but not an elite OL yet.
Schedule: (A) Has a very nice setup with Hou, Ten, Indy, Atlanta, Dallas (2), on the schedule and get this…in weeks 15 and 16 he gets to feast on NO, and St. Louis on turf…holy snickerdoodles. Has 2 games against TB and Car in back to back weeks and otherwise you rarely even think twice about who he might have to play. He has one of the best schedules to succeed.
Surround Cast: (B) I like the quartet of Moss, Randle El, Lloyd, and C.Cooley. Brunell is not a stud but he is fine at QB and will get better as this offense gels under Saunders.
Intangibles: (A) Al Saunders, associate head coach and offense, end of story.
Larry Johnson: KC
3.5 A
ADP: 1.01
Opps: (A) Will likely touch the ball 375 times this season
OL: (A) 5th in ypc last season. 2nd in rush TD. Great OL still intact.
Schedule: (C+) For every cream puff he has a pretty tough matchup but the reality is you are never gonna look at match ups with this guy if you are lucky enough to get him.
Surround Cast: (B) Not a great WR in the group but Gonzo is still top3 in the league at TE. Green is a pretty decent starting QB.
Intangibles: (B+) Hard to give this grade with a new coach and losing the OC…here’s praying it doesn’t make a difference for him…Vermeil found a way to really motivate this guy. I have some serious reservations with Saunders gone, Vermeil gone, and Hermie taking over…but if I rate this as much less than LJ starts sliding out of the top5 and we can’t have that can we? If I had the #1 pick I would trade down to probably #4 and gladly take Portis…you should think about doing the same and upgrading your 2nd round and 4th round picks perhaps.
Tiki Barber: NYG
3.5 A
ADP: 1.05
Opps: (A) Most experts project him to touch it about 360 times this season
OL: (A) 2nd in ypc so don’t say this team cannot run block cause they can. Don’t kid yourself that this a bottom rung OL with a wonder boy in the backfield.
Schedule: (B-) Has games against Indy, Atlanta, Dallas (2), Houston, TN, NO in week 16…also has his fare share of tougher match ups.
Surround Cast: (C+) Has OK WR and an underachieving TE at times. Eli is coming along but they are not tearing it up yet.
Intangibles: (B) Getting a bit older but he still produces at a very high level. Able to dodge a lot of punishment and has the heart of a lion…he can play for me anytime.
The A- tier is pretty close and I don’t have a major problem if you swirl these 2 particular tiers into 1 if need be. All the RB in both tiers should be taken off the board before any WR or QB go IMO.
“A-“ tier
L.Tomlinson: SD
3.3 A-
ADP: 1.03
Opps: (A+) Has a real chance to touch the ball 400 times a season.
OL: (C+) This OL is not talent rich but they get the job done and can creat a little space for LT to operate.
Schedule: (A-) Oak and TN to open…YES! SF, St.Louis, Cinci, Oak again, Buff, really does not see too many stout defenses…a nice soft run schedule that helps counteract a few deficiencies in some other areas.
Surround Cast: (C-) An old WR as a #1, nothing really earth shattering out of the WR2 slot…Gates certainly compensates but then we have Phillip Rivers lining up under center with virtually no NFL experience. If I am a DC, I game plan against LT only and force Rivers to beat me.
Intangibles: (B+) I am sure he will have a good season with the fairly easy schedule, however this guy has not been on the field all the time the past 2 seasons. With 30 and 40 point performances also have come some below performances due to injuries and the like. He’s a stud but he has put a lot of wear and tear on that body.
Shaun Alexander: SEA
3.3 A-
ADP: 1.02
Opps: (A) Will likely touch the ball 375 times this season
OL: (B) The loss of Hutch cannot be measured just yet but certainly it has to be a major blow to the overall performance. It’s still a pretty good OL.
Schedule: (B) Only 3 really tough match ups against Chi SD and TB…the problem is he sees 2 of those 3 in weeks 16 and 17…hope the Seadogs have not locked up the division by that point but it’s highly likely. He faces a lot of soft defenses though leading up to that so enjoy.
Surround Cast: (A) Hass, DJax, Burleson back as a WR2 where he is comfy, and Engram at the WR3…this is a great trio of WR and Seattle could just line up and throw it if they want to.
Intangibles: (A) Guy is money on the ground. TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTD…over 27 rushing TD a year ago…guy is gold. Should live up to his draft slot…can you make a case for less than 1,500 yds and 12-15 TD from him…really that’s about the minimum for this cat.
Ronnie Brown: MIAMI
3.3 A-
ADP: 1.09
Opps: (B) Should touch the ball at least 300 times this season.
OL: (B+) 7th in ypc last season, Houck is the OL coach and he is perhaps the best in the NFL…really milks the most out of his guys. Even if they are not the best talent wise I look at the OL coach quite a bit too. Houck’s resume speaks for itself.
Schedule: (A) Buff (2), TN, Hou, NYJ(2), Indy…really has a lot of mediocre teams on the schedule at stopping the run. Plays a lot of the easy ones early in the season…could draft him then trade him for an even better RB 5-6 games into the season. Gotta think ahead a bit too.
Surround Cast: (B) Chambers, CPepp, McMichael…this is a pretty talented group around him and I don’t think you can argue it much.
Intangibles: (B) A little concerned about the work load but he wasn’t picked #4 in the draft to carry the ball 12-15 times a game…he’s gonna see a lot of work. Draft him in the 1st round and be excited.
Edge: AZ
3.3 A-
ADP: 1.07
Opps: (A-) Looking at about 350 touches for the season.
OL: (D+) Horrible OL to date. This is an area of concern for sure.
Schedule: (A+) SF, StLouis, KC, Oak, GB, Dall, Det, MN, St Louis again, SF again…hardest game is against SD all the way in week 17…this schedule is absolute cake…and even with an inept OL he will have chances to explode…awesome schedule.
Surround Cast: (A) Fitz and Boldin are a deadly duo that can stretch the field from all angles…and Warner can still chuck it down the field to them. He is losing quite abit from Manning to Warner/Leinart…but I can’t see going from Wayne/Harrison to Fitz/Boldin as much of a loss at all at this stage. Not many RB have 2 potential 100rec WR lining up on the outside…how is a Safety going to sneak up…they can’t!
Intangibles: (A) Edge makes a great prize for people that have to wait till the middle of the 1st round. People point to an OL that doesn’t perform but Edge will make them better as he did in Indy. I look for him to perform as well in Arizona on grass…he is gonna flourish in the heat as he did at the “U”.
There really is not a B+ tier…so IMO there is a significant drop off after the 1st 7 RB go off the board. You really need to start planning what you are going to do at the bottom of the late middle and late 1st round. It might be unwise to blindly pick RB/RB on the turn…I would at least start thinking about a top tier WR or Manning in 6pt passTD leagues.
“B” tier
Tatum Bell: Denver
2.9 B
ADP: 4.05
Opps: © Somewhere in the range of about 250 times. I am basing it on experts and the FBG mag which is basically David Dodd’s projection work. This number has the potential to be larger.
OL: (A) Just keep making household names out of 6th round draft picks, Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns, Olandis Gary, the list keeps going.
Schedule: (C+) Not super easy and not incredibly tough either. Somewhere in the middle
Surround Cast: (B) Plummer can light it up at times. Rod Smith and Walker make a nice 1-2 punch at WR…we will see if Lelie steps up his game from the 3 hole now.
Intangibles: (A) I am high on Tatum Bell this season but I didn’t project big numbers…I simply am plugging in my formula to his situation…if the touches were to move closer to perhaps 300…he might easily be a 1st round talent in a redraft. Don’t be so quick to dismiss him or buy into the Shanny is the devil argument. Use your brain…someone has to rack up yds in Denver…you really think Ron Dayne can produce 1,200-1,500 yds on the ground? He has never come anywhere close to that…if he can it would be in a Broncos uniform. I think you can secure both of them and ride the hot hand as Shanny will likely do at times this season.
Steven Jackson: St Louis
2.9 B
ADP: 1.06
Opps: (B+) somewhere in the 320-330 range…has some potential for more.
OL: (C+) Pace is a great cornerstone for this unit but the rest are getting old or are simply average. Were 12th in ypc last season.
Schedule: © Not a lot of easy games but not brutal either.
Surround Cast: (B) Holt is super, Bruce is aging…like Curtis, and Bulger is OK as long as he is healthy but he never performed like Warner did in this offense.
Intangibles: (A) Has a terrible defense so he may be get lots of opps when the Rams are down 7 and 14 points…even if they throw a lot because they play from behind this is a very talented skill set on offense.
Dom Davis: Houston
2.8 B
ADP: 2.01
Opps: (B-) Projections are between 280-290…could creep higher if he totes the rock a bit more. Excellent receiver and gets a lot of touches out of the backfield.
OL: (B) It’s better than some think. At least when it comes to rush blocking. Tied for 9th in the league with 4.2 ypc. Hard to dispute.
Schedule: (A) A ton of easy match ups for him. Houston gets Indy and TN both twice. Also will see Buf, NYJ, and Oak…he has some real potential with this schedule.
Surround Cast: (C-) Till Carr can prove he can lead this team the score will always drag DD down. C- might be generous at this point.
Intangibles (B) Houston passed on Reggie Bush and maybe they knew better at this point and time. I like Gary Kubiak as the new head coach…look for big improvements on the offensive side of the ball. DD should be a big target towards the end of the 1st round…has some potential for a huge season.
Rudi Johnson: Cincinnati
2.8 B
ADP: 1.11
Opps: (B+) Looking at about 320 and most of it on the ground…could see a few more touches.
OL: (B) This OL is good but isn’t great. They get a few too many props in my book. They were 9th in ypc last season…good enough
Schedule: (D) I’m being generous. Baltimore and Pitt both twice…I realize he can put up numbers on them. Has 3 games in a row against NE, TB, and CAR. Has SD…does have Oak and Indy in weeks 14 and 15…right when the playoffs start.
Surround Cast: (A) Solid QB, elite WR, good WR2 and WR3…he plays in a very explosive offense.
Intangibles: (B) I am sure he will have another good year on the ground…wish he didn’t get all his points from rushing the ball.
Not far behind is the next group. Many you will want to grab within the 1st 2 rounds of a traditional 12 team draft. Remember that I am not advocating that you take the RB in order of how I list them…you must use ADP and also look at the value that you can find.
“B-“ tier
“Cadillac” Williams: Tampa Bay
2.7 B-
ADP: 1.11
Opps: (A-) Projected to be around 350 times this season.
OL: (C-) This is still a work in progress to me. 32nd in rush TD last season…not that great in and around the goal line in my mind.
Schedule: (C-) Not an easy schedule. CAR (2), Balt, Wash, Pitt, @Chi in week 15…he has a few easy games too but this is far from a cupcake schedule.
Surround Cast: (B-) OK, Simms is a concern but Galloway and a healthy Clayton make a dynamic duo on the outside. Pittman possibly for a breather here and there. I like the pieces on offense.
Intangibles: © Has not shown he can carry a full load all season…if he breaks down again for a month like he did last season then owners are going to be cursing him.
Willie Parker: Pitt
2.7 B-
ADP: 3.01
Opps: (B) Experts projecting around 300 touches this season.
OL: (B) Everyone thinks this is an elite OL…I am not sure it is actually a superior line. Oh it’s good but I don’t put them on the same level as Denver or KC necessarily. They were 12th in the league in ypc…they just run the ball a lot so they end up near the top in rushing but this is not an elite OL.
Schedule: (C-) Tough schedule…not gonna be a lot of cream puffs on this schedule.
Surround Cast: (B) Roth and Ward make for a good air attack behind him.
Intangibles: (B) If he is starting and gets 18-20 carries a week then good things will happen, it’s that simple…but don’t think he is a top5 RB for a minute.
Ron Dayne: Denver
2.6 B-
ADP: 6.12
Opps: (D) If he only touches it 175 times then he is not gonna be a top RB this season. It is the difference for him being down here and being in the upper buckets. If he truly wins the starting nod he should touch the ball in the 275-300 range.
OL: (A) See Tatum Bell
Schedule: (C+) See Tatume Bell
Surround Cast: (B) See Tatum Bell
Intangibles: (B) He has all the help around him to succeed…but will he win the job and be the man on 1st and 2nd down in Denver? I have my doubts but you have to listen to Shanny and I see him flying up the charts is he can touch the ball north of 275 times for the season. Don’t be afraid of the Denver RB spot.
I haven’t listed the RB you are locked in on the 1st round yet? Might want to rethink your analysis friend.
“C+” tier
Lamont Jordan: Oak
2.5 C+
ADP: 1.08
Opps: (B+) 320-330
OL: (D+) Finished 20th in ypc and 29th in rushing with the aid of Norv Turner mind you…better pray that Jordan continues to catch a lot of balls because his OL is not that good right now.
Schedule: (C+) Pretty in the middle…not too many cream puffs and not too many hardnose defenses either.
Surround Cast: (B) Moss and porter are great…not sure how Brooks is gonna do. Same field where he threw it backwards last season…I’m sure Oakland fans are really excited about him.
Intangibles: (B) He is a good runner and should jump ahead of where I have put him but I have to go with my theory and this is where he ends up. The OL could really be a detriment to him improving. I think #7 in the draft is way too high for this guy in 2006. he was a good deal last season but too high this year.
Brian Westbrook: Philly
2.5 C+
ADP: 2.02
Opps: © As always, will have a hard time getting a lot of carries but makes up for it with his receptions
OL: © 16th in the league in ypc rushing…that’s not a great RB team in my mind.
Schedule: (B+) Very very nice with a lot of fairly easy rush defenses…problem is he doesn’t usually run more than 10-12 times a game so he rarely takes advantage of this.
Surround Talent: © QB is great but there is little on the outside to scare any CB from the opposing teams. Also the Safeties can creep up if they need to.
Intangibles: (B) I gave him a decent grade here. I am not a big fan of Westy in leagues that do not reward receptions. He still is a great option to pop in around 100 yds combined every week assuming he is healty…and probably score 8TD or so over the course of the whole season. He is a good RB2.
Reuben Droughns: Cleveland
2.5 C+
ADP: 3.07
Opps: (B+) 340 touches seems to be the general consensus. That’s a lot of ball handling from this spot in the draft.
OL: (B-) I am of the notion that this is one of the best OL that the new Cleveland team has seen. Granted it’s been bad for a long time but this looks much better…Bentley and Shaffer come in and solidify the line.
Schedule: (C-) There are a lot of tough rund defenses he will see…but also some fairly easy ones too. It’s either one or the other most weeks…not a lot of middle of the road defenses like so many other RBs get.
Surround Cast: (D) I’m being generous. Charlie Frye is your starting QB? Edwards and JJ are decent at the WR spots but Edwards is still unproven, JJ is best as a compliment type…and don’t get me started on KWII. Lots of questions on offense but I doubt Cleveland will try and air it out much so expect Droughns to pound the rock a lot.
Intangibles: © Can’t get too excited over 2 TD last season. Hope that improves but there is no denying the value he has in this particular tier. I think he makes an excellent RB2 if he can up those TD to something like 6-8 this season.
Julius Jones: Dallas
2.5 C+
ADP: 2.10
Opps: (B) Should touch the ball about 320 times this season.
OL: (D) 25th in the league in ypc last season. Maybe Allen leaving is a good thing? I doubt it. I just am not high on their OL which I think will be better at pass blocking so Bledsoe can air it out to TO, Glenn, and Witten. Even though it’s Bill Parcells you might see this team throw first then try and run.
Schedule: (B-) A good mix of teams. Lots of middle of the road defenses which cannot hurt him.
Surround Cast: (A-) Owens, Glenn, a healthy Crayton in the slot, and Witten…hard to defend them all thru the air. Bledsoe can still deliver the ball and has lots of weapons.
Intangibles: (B) A lot of owners are going to gloss over JJ but I see some value here. Lock up MBIII later and you might be just fine. I am concerned over the OL but hopefully the air attack will stretch the defense and allow the running game to flourish a bit.
Warrick Dunn: Atlanta
2.5 C+
ADP: 3.12
Opps: (B) about 300-320 for the season
OL: (B) Vick tends to balloon the numbers a bit with the ypc. The Falcons do rank 1st with 4.8 ypc but temper your enthusiasm. Did get Gandy to sign in the off season.
Schedule: (D+) Schedule is tough…gonna see TB and CAR twice. Wash, Pitt and Balt will not be real fun either.
Surround Cast: © Mediocre WRs, a QB that is exciting but not great thru the air, and a very talented TE in Crumpler…average when you mix it all up.
Intangibles © Not getting any younger…but he will be asked to run the ball 15+ times a game. Wish they could get the ball in his hands more out of the backfield. He remains a viable RB2 in almost any league. Will have a few big games that balloon the stats a bit too.
Thomas Jones: Chicago
2.5 C+
ADP: 5.11
Opps: (C+) The call is for about 275 touches. You can make a case that Cedric Benson will be much more involved in the offense this season.
OL: B+ Mean and nasty. They just like to line up and ram it down your throat till you choke…3 yds and a pile of dust ought to be stitched into their jerseys. 7th in ypc with 4,3 and 17th in rush TD.
Schedule: (B) Not a ton of stout defenses on the schedule. Bodes well for him.
Surround Cast: (D) Just a total lack of punch thru the air.
Intangibles: © I am not excited about a player trying to fend off an extremely high draft pick from last season…course TJ was in the same boat as Benson is when he was with the Cardinals and Pittman was playing ahead of him. I just have a gut feeling that Benson will a lot more action this season…and maybe a bit of the Bears magic from last season will be gone.
Joseph Addai: Indy
2.4 C+
ADP: 5.04
Opps: (C-) A lot of sites are coming up with a round 200…I think that could be on the low side especially when he beats out for Rhodes for the starting spot…OOPS!
OL: (D+) A much better pass blocking group then they are at run blocking.
24th in ypc with 3.7 last season…ouch!
Schedule: (A) They get HOU (2), NYJ, TEN (2), Buff, Dallas, Cinci…they get Cinci and Houston in weeks 15 and 16…very nice!
Surround Cast: (A+) Do I have to explain this?
Intangibles: (B) Just give him the ball…oh how I pray Tony Dungy and the OC utilize this kid. If you do not get him and he starts off slow I would trade for him. An easy Schedule, Surround Cast, and Dominic Rhodes cannot be a bad thing. I think locking up the Indy backfield is smart if you are not getting an early pick in the draft…or it could be a nice gamble for someone that got Portis/LJ/Shaun in the early part of the draft too.
Fred Taylor: Jacksonville
2.4 C+
ADP: 5.12
Opps: © 250 touches for the season is the expert consensus it seems. He’s a dangerous RB to predict. His production has fallen the past coupke of years from 8…20…33 granted he has had injuries but you have to factor that in with Freddie.
OL: © They are OK
Schedule: (A) Surprise, surprise, surprise…another AFC South RB and another cake and I do mean cake schedule. No less than 9 pretty soft defenses that he will face this season.
Surround Cast: © Lot os unproven talent all over the place.
Intangibles: © The gut is saying he makes a return this season. His back ups behind him have not really done anything that I would call “special”. That said this spot is more indicative of a favorable schedule really. Whoever runs the ball in Jax as the starter is going to do well. Jones or Pearman will need to be secured as a handcuff.
Chester Taylor: Minnesota
2.4 C+
ADP: 3.09
Opps: © Somewhere around 250 touches but I imagine that has the potential to be higher.
OL: (B+) McKinnie and Hutch make for a powerful left side of the OL. This is now an OL to really be reckoned with.
Schedule: (C-) Far from a cupcake schedule. But the OL should balance that a bit.
Surround Cast: (C-) Brad Johnson does not excite more. The WR are mostly average at this point.
Intangibles: © This year’s Lamont Jordan? People are hoping. I think his backup is talented enough to take a big bite out of his total potential. If taylor ends up touching the ball 300 times then his stats have the potential to be in one of the upper tiers.
That was a large tier and the next one is pretty big as well. Again you can move them up and down the tiers as you see fit.
“C” tier
Corey Dillon: New England
2.2 C
ADP: 4.09
Opps: (C-) 200 touches
OL: (C-) Injuries hurt them last season. Ranked 29th with 3.4 ypc. Yikes!
Schedule: (A) Has a bunch of rushing cake games. I count about 7 easy match ups and only 3 real juggernauts on the schedule.
Surround Cast: (B) Top notch QB and an improving WR corp…also has a nice TE combo around him.
Intangibles: (D) Rookie pushing him for playing time. His production in term of rushing between the 20s went downhill last season. I see Dillon moving into a Jerome Bettis like role. He will get the touches inside the 10 and 20 but I don’t see him racking up tons of yards…in TD only leagues he will be much more valuable.
Dhominic Rhodes: Indy
2.2 C
ADP: 6.06
Opps: (C-) 200
OL: (D+) See J.Addai
Schedule: (A) See J.Addai
Surround Cast: (A+) See J.Addai
Intangibles: (D) Never has shown the burst after he injured his knee some seasons back. I think Addai will be the guy who gets the carries between the 20s and Rhodes will be more of a TD vulture than anything. If he wins the starting job however he is quite valuable. I like locking the Indy backfield up…one of them will prove starter material. The gut says the rookie will succeed.
Kevin Jones: Detroit
2.1 C
ADP: 2.10
Opps: © 250 touches
OL: (D+): 25th in the league with 3.6 ypc…they struggle too much for all the top picks over the years they have invested in the OL.
Schedule: (B-) Not too hard and not too soft.
Surround Cast: (B-) Lot of untapped talent at the WR spot. QB will see a nice change with Kitna at the controls. I think Detroit will score more points this season.
Intangibles: (B) I think the offense for Detroit will be better but he still has a challenging OL to block in front of him. Martz will speed up the air attack and KJ will find more room to roam on the ground. I think there is upside here but you do not want to invest too high in KJ.
Willis McGahee: Buffalo
2.0 C
ADP: 2.05
Opps: (B+) 325-340 sounds about right. Lot of touches to be this far down in the order but let’s take a look at the rest of the categories to get a better idea.
OL: (D) This is one of the worst in the leagues. 20th in rush with 3.8 ypc. 29th in rush TD. They lost Mike Williams and Trey Teague in the off season. I just do not see anything to really write home about here.
Schedule: (D+) Does see a few easy games but has a fairly hard schedule with no less than 7 teams that either held the opposition under 3.9 ypc last season or are improved enough to make that leap this season.
Surround Cast: (D) Terrible. QB position is in disarray…lost Moulds, Parrish is unproven on the outside…nothing to get excited over. We’ll see what lee Evans does as the #1WR in this offense now.
Intangibles: (D) I never predict injuries but when you have a bad OL and no one to deliver the ball thru the air…disaster is waiting to happen. I think WM could be in jeopardy of getting himself killed in this offense this season. I am not real high on his upside for 2006…but that does not mean I think McGahee is void of any and all talent because I don’t. He can be a special player but not the way this offense is set up right now.
Jamal Lewis: Baltimore
2.0 C
ADP: 3.06
Opps: © 250 touches. Mike Anderson will see the ball some but if Lewis can return to form with a healthy off season then this number could rise to as much as 300.
OL: (D+) Has Ogden gotten old in a hurray? The rest of the OL is very mediocre. Nothing special here right now.
Schedule: © Mix of hard and easy. The easy games are countered with difficult match ups. This category should not make or break your decision for Lewis.
Surround Talent: © When McNair is healthy then this is probably a higher grade. McNair with Mason and Clayton have the potential to stretch the defenses…something the Ravens have not had in quite some time.
Intangibles: © You cannot discount the signing of Mike Anderson and his 4 year $8 million deal. He will see the field…especially on short yardage IMO.
DeShaun Foster: Carolina
2.0 C
ADP: 4.05
Opps: © 250…if he can stay healthy
OL: (C-) This is not one of the better OL in the league. In fact they ranked 29th with 3.4 ypc last season but 8th in rush TD…that should tell you something.
Schedule: © Just mediocre. Not always a bad thing as match ups can not always be predicted.
Surround Cast: (A) He has Steve Smith and Keyshaun Johnson on the outside to harass the secondaries. Smith has to be double teamed…Keyshawn can eat up a corner 1 on 1 with short out routes to the sidelines. Safeties will not be able to sneak up on the line a whole lot. Delhomme is a fine NFL QB who delivers the ball well and has been to a Super Bowl and 2 NFC Championships…he has the experience and will keep the air attack moving.
Intangibles: (D) Major injury risk…this guy is never healthy so why will this year be any different. I love the kid behind him and have no problem drafting Foster and then taking DeAngelo Williams with him to fill up my RB2/RB3 spots.
Frank Gore: San Fran
2.0 C
ADP: 7.01
Opps: (C-) We are looking at about 200 right now but that could soar upwards if he is declared the starter.
OL: © Larry Allen comes in from Dallas…I like it. They were 16th in the league with 3.9 ypc last season. There is some room for optimism here.
Schedule: (B) Other than week 6 and 7 match ups with San Diego and Chicago you will be hard pressed to find any juggernauts on the schedule. It is not nearly as easy as some others I highlighted but really no long stretches against tough defenses at this point.
Surround Cast: (D) Alex Smith, Bryant, Arnaz Battle, and a rookie all star TE named Vernon Davis. Lot to prove.
Intangibles: (C+) The 49ers will be terrible on defense this season. They will get lot so of opps to be on offense because of that. Unfortunately they have a lot of unproven talent on offense. I like Gore, think he is now 2-3 years from his serious knee injuries in college so he may be even better than last season. He showed some flashes as a rookie including 19/79, 10/68 with 2 TD, and 25/108 in the final 3 weeks of the season. He is going to be very involved with the offense this season. I also like the addition of Norv Turner. If you think Barlow is a better fit that’s fine…but I think one of them will be the clear starter and you can get both of them at later positions in the draft…beyond the 1st 4-5 rounds is what I’m saying.
Cedric Benson: Chicago
2.0 C
ADP: 5.09
Opps: (D-) 150 touches…not even 10 a game. I just have a hard time thinking this guy will not be on the field much.
OL: (B+) See T.Jones
Schedule: (B) See T.Jones
Surround Talent: (D) See T.Jones
Intangibles: © If he can get on the field more he is going to be a huge pick up later in the draft for folks. Where would he be picked up if he were #3 off the board this season? I think he has to be looked at and not overlooked in Chicago. Easiest way to get him is T.Jones earlier in the draft and then handcuff him to Benson. Chicago should run the ball well this season.
Ahman Green: Green Bay
1.9 C
ADP: 6.05
Opps: (C-) 225 touches from most experts.
OL: (D+) Lot of problems on that OL.
Schedule: (B-) Not that bad.
Surround Cast: (C+) Brett Favre, Donald Driver, Bubba Franks…not the worst you are going to find. They are going to be behind a lot so look for the offense to move it up and down the field…depending on how the OL responds.
Intangibles: © I think the injury he suffered will be hard to bounce right back from. Still he only has to fight off Gado at this point. At some point in the draft someone will have a player that does have some upside as a possible RB2.
Chris Brown: Tennessee
1.9 C
ADP: 7.03
Opps: (C-) 200 touches
OL: (C-) Added Mawae…lost Hopkins to retirement. 2 starting Tackles with limited experience but a decent interior part of the OL…if Mawae misses significant time then you would quickly have an ugly situation.
Schedule: (B) Plays in the AFC South so there are lots of good match ups for him or any Titan RB.
Surround Cast: (D) Volek and the rookie under center. Bennett and Givens will make for a decent combo. If Volek could catch some of that magic from 2004 you might have something…but there is a lot to prove here. I do think the Titans defense is something to be desired and they will have to score 30+ to stay in it most weeks…that’s good for offense players in FF.
Intangibles: (D) I don’t really see him holding down the starting spot for long. LenDale White will have a chip on his shoulder and is better suited to run between the Tackles where they have a better chance to run. Take him but you better handcuff him quickly to White. There is some merit and value in the Titans on offense this season.
Update: Chris Brown has requested a trade in writing to the Titans...the road is being paved for LenDale White...could be the darkhorse for ROTY after he was not taken in the 1st round of the draft...this guy was a monster at USC.
Curtis Martin: New York Jets
1.7 C-
ADP: 7.01
Opps: (C-) 200 touches roughly...although if he's healthy that number would move up significantly.
OL: (D+) They lost Mawae and weren't all that great before that move. 28th in the NFL last season with 3.5 ypc...yuck!
Schedule: (C+) Quite a few favorable match ups.
Surround Cast: (C-) QB is a mess...WR are average really...nothing special, sorry.
Intangibles: (D) Has value later rather than earlier...old and now starting to break down...not gonna get much help to take the heat of him either.
Reggie Bush: New Orleans
1.7 C-
ADP: 3.10
Opps: © 260 touches roughly…can’t imagine Deuce is ready to go.
OL: (D) Oh my goodness is this OL in heaps of trouble.
Schedule: (D) Brutal schedule. Lots of juggernauts on tap for NO…plays in the same division as TB and CAR so it just will not be a fun go of it.
Surround Talent: (B) Horn and Stallworth make for a nice 1-2 punch at WR…have to wait and see if Brees is 100% and ready to air it out.
Intangibles: © The Saints will be playing from behind this year…a lot! So maybe they will get a lot of opps on offense. The OL and schedule however do not make me highly optimistic for Reggie in season number 1. I don’t see how Deuce will be ready 100% to go for 2006.
OK now there are a lot of back ups that score out in the C-/D+ category but many have a lot of merit. I will name a few. Most of the low scores are simply from the lack of opps they will get because of who is starting in front of them. In no particular order they are.
Deuce McAllister: New Orleans…should be handcuffed to Reggie Bush
LenDale White: Tennessee…I see him eventually taking over there this year.
DeAngelo Williams: Carolina…will see the field this season whether by way of injury or simply playing better than Foster.
Laurence Maroney: New England…temper the enthusiasm as NE has a RB they like already in front of him. If Dillon has lost a step or two then you might see him hit the field a little more.
Kevan Barlow: San Fran…could see a resurgence under norv Turner…but he has had so many chances before.
Marion Barber III: Dallas…certainly in the mix there and a must have for Julius Jones owners. The leash is going to be real short on JJ and Parcells still might use both backs and split the carries a bit.
Chris Perry: Cincinnati…if Rudi were to go down many FF owners would be eager to see this kid in the backfield. He is a much better receiver than Rudi will ever be.
Greg Jones: JAX…pick a player on Jax as the backup, you can toss Pearman in the mix too.
Mewelde Moore: Minnesota…just seems to be destined as a backup in Minnesota no matter what he does.
Mike Anderson: Baltimore…Lewis owners need to be aware he is now the backup in Baltimore and could see some significant time if pressed into action.
Duce Staley: Pittsburgh…I see him pimped as a steal late in the draft…I hold very little value for this guy at this stage in his career, sorry.
Cedric Houston: NYJets…CMart is starting to break down, this guy is another potential
strong backup if an injury were to happen in front of him.
Samkon Gado: Green Bay…draft Green…you better grab Gado too.
Priest Holmes: Kansas City…have to put him somewhere. Not sure he is ever going to make it back but if he did I am sure he would carry the ball a little bit in KC…what a nighmare for LJ owners if he was actually cleared to play and got 8-12 carries a game.
Let’s land the plane. I am certainly not telling you to pick Ron Dayne before you take Lamont Jordan. Mainly because you can grab him several rounds later. What I am highlighting is the potential of some of these RB based on analysis and not just stats. Stats are the by product of Opps…OL…Sched…Surround Cast…and some Intangibles. If you like the theory but hate the way the RB come up then go ahead and make some changes…maybe you think someone has an easier or harder schedule…perhaps you see some player getting a lot more carries or “potential” amount of touches. I have no problem with any of that. I got my defense analysis from NFL.com…and my touches were mostly from David Dodds and the absolute excellent never to be duplicated FBG.com Mag which was a real treat to read. Hopefully not everyone in your draft brings that with them or your in big trouble.
Thanks for taking the time to read this, I hope you get something out of it and I look forward to your feedback and criticisms.
Have a great season!
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