MOP 2006 RB Bucket and Tiers thread (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

MOP "dirty secret about Dallas....can't stop the run" is wrong and obviously lacks research.

please check it out and report back if it affects your article/post. It is generally very well thought out and a good post

I just happen to have all 16 games on hand...let's take a look and really break it down.1. @SD 28-24...I think Gates was out that week but San Diego rushed for 103 yds on the ground...I don't go on individuals but overall team. Game was close...nothing special here. 26 yards under their average

2. WASH 13-14...fun MNF game in the last 2 minutes...gave up 104 yds on the ground...adequate I guess. 32 yards under their average

3. @SF 34-31...SF ran for 124 yds with a pretty suspect OL last season. 19 yards over their average

4. @Oak 13-19...Ouch, I'm sure they wish they had won that game when they look back at going 9-7 last season. Oakland has a terrible OL at this point and time...129 yds on the ground for them. 44 yards over their average

They haven't held a team to under 100 yds rushing yet...just keeping score...it'll get better.

5. Philadelphia 33-10...BLOWOUT! Reid doesn't call a lot of runs and when they fell behind they sure were not going to run much. 19 rushing yds for the day...but it was pretty much a blowout. But OK that's fairly impressive. 70 yards under their average

6. NYGiants 16-13 Held the GMen to 91 on the ground...solid effort 47 yards under their average

7. @Seattle 10-13...Lost the game but did hold the Seadogs in check with 72 yds. 81 yards under their average

8. ARIZONA 34-13...Blowout! Did hold them and a putrid OL to 71 yds rush in a blowout...I read little into that. right on their average

So they bounced back a bit.

9. @Philly 21-20...Held the Eagles to an eye popping 181 yds on the ground. It's amazing they won the game. Philly was ranked 28th in rushing yds for the season btw. 91 yards over their average

10. Detroit 20-7...Held the Lions to 57 on the ground. Detroit was 26th in the league in rushing last season...lot of people held them in check. 34 yards under their average

Now Dallas is 7-3 at this point and in the playoff hunt big time...this is when you need defenses to really clamp down for the stretch run into the playoffs. let's see how Parcells team did.

11. Denver 21-24...144 yds on the ground for Denver...hard team to stop for sure. 14 yards under their average

12. @NYGiants 10-17...give up 127 yds on the ground. 11 yards under their average

13. Kansas City 31-28...give up a whopping 161 on the ground. Did manage a win but they still have gotten run on good 3 weeks in a row. 12 yards over their average

14. @Wash 7-35...give up another 171 on the ground...what was Portis numbers in this one? 23 carries for 112 it seems. 35 yards over their average

And Dallas is now 8-6 after giving up no less than 125+ yds on the ground 4 weeks in a row when they are in the middle of a major playoff run...stout would not be a word I would use to describe their run defense at this point.

15. @Carolina 24-20...held them to 71 yds on the ground...Carolina ranked 29th in ypc rushing last season. 33 yards under their average

16. St.Louis 10-20...gave up 106 yds in the loss. 10 yards over their average

Let's see they held the 26th, 28th, 29th and 32nd ranked rushing teams to under 100 yds rushing...

Your resting your hat on the Seattle performance...that's 1 game.

i count more than 1 good game

DALLAS ALLOWED 4.2 YPC LAST SEASON!!!1. As I explained in the body of the thread...if I am wrong on one then likely there will be tough defense that turns soft and they counter balance a bit.

2. The fact is the Cowboys have been near the bottom of the league in ypc on defense in '04 and '05...lost Dat Nguyen who was their best LB...can you explain why they are going to be anything other than a good match up for most teams?

Your spinning the teams averages...I pointed out clearly the teams they held to under 100 yds were fairly pathetic at running the ball...if you want to come over top of that fine...but I think I did an excellent job defending myself...was there anything besides your shock of my use of Dallas and 11 OTHER TEAMS that I felt would be in the bottom part of the league in rush defense?

The thread was not about the Dallas defense or entirely what I used as SOS...but I guess a couple of you felt the need to try and exploit something there.

Good luck and have a great season.

 

[joffer]

MOP "dirty secret about Dallas....can't stop the run" is wrong and obviously lacks research.

please check it out and report back if it affects your article/post. It is generally very well thought out and a good post

I just happen to have all 16 games on hand...let's take a look and really break it down.1. @SD 28-24...I think Gates was out that week but San Diego rushed for 103 yds on the ground...I don't go on individuals but overall team. Game was close...nothing special here. 26 yards under their average

2. WASH 13-14...fun MNF game in the last 2 minutes...gave up 104 yds on the ground...adequate I guess. 32 yards under their average

3. @SF 34-31...SF ran for 124 yds with a pretty suspect OL last season. 19 yards over their average

4. @Oak 13-19...Ouch, I'm sure they wish they had won that game when they look back at going 9-7 last season. Oakland has a terrible OL at this point and time...129 yds on the ground for them. 44 yards over their average

They haven't held a team to under 100 yds rushing yet...just keeping score...it'll get better.

5. Philadelphia 33-10...BLOWOUT! Reid doesn't call a lot of runs and when they fell behind they sure were not going to run much. 19 rushing yds for the day...but it was pretty much a blowout. But OK that's fairly impressive. 70 yards under their average

6. NYGiants 16-13 Held the GMen to 91 on the ground...solid effort 47 yards under their average

7. @Seattle 10-13...Lost the game but did hold the Seadogs in check with 72 yds. 81 yards under their average

8. ARIZONA 34-13...Blowout! Did hold them and a putrid OL to 71 yds rush in a blowout...I read little into that. right on their average

So they bounced back a bit.

9. @Philly 21-20...Held the Eagles to an eye popping 181 yds on the ground. It's amazing they won the game. Philly was ranked 28th in rushing yds for the season btw. 91 yards over their average

10. Detroit 20-7...Held the Lions to 57 on the ground. Detroit was 26th in the league in rushing last season...lot of people held them in check. 34 yards under their average

Now Dallas is 7-3 at this point and in the playoff hunt big time...this is when you need defenses to really clamp down for the stretch run into the playoffs. let's see how Parcells team did.

11. Denver 21-24...144 yds on the ground for Denver...hard team to stop for sure. 14 yards under their average

12. @NYGiants 10-17...give up 127 yds on the ground. 11 yards under their average

13. Kansas City 31-28...give up a whopping 161 on the ground. Did manage a win but they still have gotten run on good 3 weeks in a row. 12 yards over their average

14. @Wash 7-35...give up another 171 on the ground...what was Portis numbers in this one? 23 carries for 112 it seems. 35 yards over their average

And Dallas is now 8-6 after giving up no less than 125+ yds on the ground 4 weeks in a row when they are in the middle of a major playoff run...stout would not be a word I would use to describe their run defense at this point.

15. @Carolina 24-20...held them to 71 yds on the ground...Carolina ranked 29th in ypc rushing last season. 33 yards under their average

16. St.Louis 10-20...gave up 106 yds in the loss. 10 yards over their average

Let's see they held the 26th, 28th, 29th and 32nd ranked rushing teams to under 100 yds rushing...

Your resting your hat on the Seattle performance...that's 1 game.

i count more than 1 good game

DALLAS ALLOWED 4.2 YPC LAST SEASON!!!1. As I explained in the body of the thread...if I am wrong on one then likely there will be tough defense that turns soft and they counter balance a bit.

2. The fact is the Cowboys have been near the bottom of the league in ypc on defense in '04 and '05...lost Dat Nguyen who was their best LB...can you explain why they are going to be anything other than a good match up for most teams?

i think they'll be slightly improved and about average. they were 24th in 2005 and 17th in 2004, right in the middle.

Your spinning the teams averages...I pointed out clearly the teams they held to under 100 yds were fairly pathetic at running the ball...if you want to come over top of that fine...but I think I did an excellent job defending myself...was there anything besides your shock of my use of Dallas and 11 OTHER TEAMS that I felt would be in the bottom part of the league in rush defense?

i'm spinning? ok.i think the teams you chose are a little arbitrary, and since it's one of your "5 factors", and inclusion of Dallas greatly affects Portis and Tiki's "grade", it seems like it's worth some debate.

The thread was not about the Dallas defense or entirely what I used as SOS...but I guess a couple of you felt the need to try and exploit something there.

exploit? lighten up, chief.

 

[rascal]

Hey MoP,

First I hope you aren't throwing me into that second to last sentence on post # 53.

Second, do you also have a WR analysis?

 

[rascal]

MOP "dirty secret about Dallas....can't stop the run" is wrong and obviously lacks research.

please check it out and report back if it affects your article/post. It is generally very well thought out and a good post

I just happen to have all 16 games on hand...let's take a look and really break it down.1. @SD 28-24...I think Gates was out that week but San Diego rushed for 103 yds on the ground...I don't go on individuals but overall team. Game was close...nothing special here. 26 yards under their average

2. WASH 13-14...fun MNF game in the last 2 minutes...gave up 104 yds on the ground...adequate I guess. 32 yards under their average

3. @SF 34-31...SF ran for 124 yds with a pretty suspect OL last season. 19 yards over their average

4. @Oak 13-19...Ouch, I'm sure they wish they had won that game when they look back at going 9-7 last season. Oakland has a terrible OL at this point and time...129 yds on the ground for them. 44 yards over their average

They haven't held a team to under 100 yds rushing yet...just keeping score...it'll get better.

5. Philadelphia 33-10...BLOWOUT! Reid doesn't call a lot of runs and when they fell behind they sure were not going to run much. 19 rushing yds for the day...but it was pretty much a blowout. But OK that's fairly impressive. 70 yards under their average

6. NYGiants 16-13 Held the GMen to 91 on the ground...solid effort 47 yards under their average

7. @Seattle 10-13...Lost the game but did hold the Seadogs in check with 72 yds. 81 yards under their average

8. ARIZONA 34-13...Blowout! Did hold them and a putrid OL to 71 yds rush in a blowout...I read little into that. right on their average

So they bounced back a bit.

9. @Philly 21-20...Held the Eagles to an eye popping 181 yds on the ground. It's amazing they won the game. Philly was ranked 28th in rushing yds for the season btw. 91 yards over their average

10. Detroit 20-7...Held the Lions to 57 on the ground. Detroit was 26th in the league in rushing last season...lot of people held them in check. 34 yards under their average

Now Dallas is 7-3 at this point and in the playoff hunt big time...this is when you need defenses to really clamp down for the stretch run into the playoffs. let's see how Parcells team did.

11. Denver 21-24...144 yds on the ground for Denver...hard team to stop for sure. 14 yards under their average

12. @NYGiants 10-17...give up 127 yds on the ground. 11 yards under their average

13. Kansas City 31-28...give up a whopping 161 on the ground. Did manage a win but they still have gotten run on good 3 weeks in a row. 12 yards over their average

14. @Wash 7-35...give up another 171 on the ground...what was Portis numbers in this one? 23 carries for 112 it seems. 35 yards over their average

And Dallas is now 8-6 after giving up no less than 125+ yds on the ground 4 weeks in a row when they are in the middle of a major playoff run...stout would not be a word I would use to describe their run defense at this point.

15. @Carolina 24-20...held them to 71 yds on the ground...Carolina ranked 29th in ypc rushing last season. 33 yards under their average

16. St.Louis 10-20...gave up 106 yds in the loss. 10 yards over their average

Let's see they held the 26th, 28th, 29th and 32nd ranked rushing teams to under 100 yds rushing...

Your resting your hat on the Seattle performance...that's 1 game.

i count more than 1 good game

DALLAS ALLOWED 4.2 YPC LAST SEASON!!!1. As I explained in the body of the thread...if I am wrong on one then likely there will be tough defense that turns soft and they counter balance a bit.

2. The fact is the Cowboys have been near the bottom of the league in ypc on defense in '04 and '05...lost Dat Nguyen who was their best LB...can you explain why they are going to be anything other than a good match up for most teams?

i think they'll be slightly improved and about average. they were 24th in 2005 and 17th in 2004, right in the middle.

Your spinning the teams averages...I pointed out clearly the teams they held to under 100 yds were fairly pathetic at running the ball...if you want to come over top of that fine...but I think I did an excellent job defending myself...was there anything besides your shock of my use of Dallas and 11 OTHER TEAMS that I felt would be in the bottom part of the league in rush defense?

i'm spinning? ok.i think the teams you chose are a little arbitrary, and since it's one of your "5 factors", and inclusion of Dallas greatly affects Portis and Tiki's "grade", it seems like it's worth some debate.

The thread was not about the Dallas defense or entirely what I used as SOS...but I guess a couple of you felt the need to try and exploit something there.

exploit? lighten up, chief.

MoP said he was using a three year average to determine their SoS. From your own statement about their ranking it's obvious that they would not make that list based on the last three years. is it possible the cowboys run defense does considerably better, sure, but MoP was using historical precedent to determine 2006, not ones personal feelings.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

i'm spinning? ok.

i think the teams you chose are a little arbitrary, and since it's one of your "5 factors", and inclusion of Dallas greatly affects Portis and Tiki's "grade", it seems like it's worth some debate.

Let's look at the schedules.Portis

MN

@Dal

@Hou

JAX

@NYG

TN

@INdy

Dallas

@Philly

@TB

Car

Atl

Philly

@NO

@St.Louis

NYG

Where are there a ton of great defenses on this schedule...forget about Dallas for a minute...TB and Car in back to back weeks...they face the AFC South which is loaded with cupcake rushing defenses in recent years...gets NO and St Louis in weeks 15 and 16...Owners can't ask for much better.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

MOP "dirty secret about Dallas....can't stop the run" is wrong and obviously lacks research.

please check it out and report back if it affects your article/post. It is generally very well thought out and a good post

I just happen to have all 16 games on hand...let's take a look and really break it down.1. @SD 28-24...I think Gates was out that week but San Diego rushed for 103 yds on the ground...I don't go on individuals but overall team. Game was close...nothing special here. 26 yards under their average

2. WASH 13-14...fun MNF game in the last 2 minutes...gave up 104 yds on the ground...adequate I guess. 32 yards under their average

3. @SF 34-31...SF ran for 124 yds with a pretty suspect OL last season. 19 yards over their average

4. @Oak 13-19...Ouch, I'm sure they wish they had won that game when they look back at going 9-7 last season. Oakland has a terrible OL at this point and time...129 yds on the ground for them. 44 yards over their average

They haven't held a team to under 100 yds rushing yet...just keeping score...it'll get better.

5. Philadelphia 33-10...BLOWOUT! Reid doesn't call a lot of runs and when they fell behind they sure were not going to run much. 19 rushing yds for the day...but it was pretty much a blowout. But OK that's fairly impressive. 70 yards under their average

6. NYGiants 16-13 Held the GMen to 91 on the ground...solid effort 47 yards under their average

7. @Seattle 10-13...Lost the game but did hold the Seadogs in check with 72 yds. 81 yards under their average

8. ARIZONA 34-13...Blowout! Did hold them and a putrid OL to 71 yds rush in a blowout...I read little into that. right on their average

So they bounced back a bit.

9. @Philly 21-20...Held the Eagles to an eye popping 181 yds on the ground. It's amazing they won the game. Philly was ranked 28th in rushing yds for the season btw. 91 yards over their average

10. Detroit 20-7...Held the Lions to 57 on the ground. Detroit was 26th in the league in rushing last season...lot of people held them in check. 34 yards under their average

Now Dallas is 7-3 at this point and in the playoff hunt big time...this is when you need defenses to really clamp down for the stretch run into the playoffs. let's see how Parcells team did.

11. Denver 21-24...144 yds on the ground for Denver...hard team to stop for sure. 14 yards under their average

12. @NYGiants 10-17...give up 127 yds on the ground. 11 yards under their average

13. Kansas City 31-28...give up a whopping 161 on the ground. Did manage a win but they still have gotten run on good 3 weeks in a row. 12 yards over their average

14. @Wash 7-35...give up another 171 on the ground...what was Portis numbers in this one? 23 carries for 112 it seems. 35 yards over their average

And Dallas is now 8-6 after giving up no less than 125+ yds on the ground 4 weeks in a row when they are in the middle of a major playoff run...stout would not be a word I would use to describe their run defense at this point.

15. @Carolina 24-20...held them to 71 yds on the ground...Carolina ranked 29th in ypc rushing last season. 33 yards under their average

16. St.Louis 10-20...gave up 106 yds in the loss. 10 yards over their average

Let's see they held the 26th, 28th, 29th and 32nd ranked rushing teams to under 100 yds rushing...

Your resting your hat on the Seattle performance...that's 1 game.

i count more than 1 good game

DALLAS ALLOWED 4.2 YPC LAST SEASON!!!1. As I explained in the body of the thread...if I am wrong on one then likely there will be tough defense that turns soft and they counter balance a bit.

2. The fact is the Cowboys have been near the bottom of the league in ypc on defense in '04 and '05...lost Dat Nguyen who was their best LB...can you explain why they are going to be anything other than a good match up for most teams?

i think they'll be slightly improved and about average. they were 24th in 2005 and 17th in 2004, right in the middle.

Your spinning the teams averages...I pointed out clearly the teams they held to under 100 yds were fairly pathetic at running the ball...if you want to come over top of that fine...but I think I did an excellent job defending myself...was there anything besides your shock of my use of Dallas and 11 OTHER TEAMS that I felt would be in the bottom part of the league in rush defense?

i'm spinning? ok.i think the teams you chose are a little arbitrary, and since it's one of your "5 factors", and inclusion of Dallas greatly affects Portis and Tiki's "grade", it seems like it's worth some debate.

The thread was not about the Dallas defense or entirely what I used as SOS...but I guess a couple of you felt the need to try and exploit something there.

exploit? lighten up, chief.

MoP said he was using a three year average to determine their SoS. From your own statement about their ranking it's obvious that they would not make that list based on the last three years. is it possible the cowboys run defense does considerably better, sure, but MoP was using historical precedent to determine 2006, not ones personal feelings.

No rascal...my beef with this is simple. I think I did a great job defending my position...Joffer came over the top out of the blue for what reason I'm not sure. His real issue is Tiki and Portis being as high as they are...totally fine. One does not need to except my rankings as a faith based movement... I don't have anything to sell. I also am a man without a local team out here in Los Angeles and I think I do a pretty good job of being unbiased. I have nothing against the Cowboys.

Maybe I should have said "The Cowboys don't defend the run as well as some of you might think"...that would have been politically more correct but I don't write politically correct posts usually.

 

[joffer]

No rascal...my beef with this is simple. I think I did a great job defending my position...Joffer came over the top out of the blue for what reason I'm not sure.

over the top and out of the blue??? should i have PM'd you first and asked if it was ok to disagree with you that Dallas only had one good game stopping the run last year?

Let's look at the schedules.PortisMN@Dal@HouJAX@NYGTN@INdyDallas@Philly@TBCarAtlPhilly@NO@St.LouisNYGWhere are there a ton of great defenses on this schedule...forget about Dallas for a minute...TB and Car in back to back weeks...they face the AFC South which is loaded with cupcake rushing defenses in recent years...gets NO and St Louis in weeks 15 and 16...Owners can't ask for much better.

i agree, overall Portis has a nice run schedule

 

[Bri]

here MOP

The Dallas defense limited the NFC’s leading rusher Shawn Alexander to 61 yards on

21 carries in Week Seven. The Cowboys held LaDanian Tomlinson to 72 yards rushing

and zero receptions in the opener. In Week Two, Dallas held Clinton Portis to 52

yards rushing on 17 carries (3.1 avg.). Portis averaged 87.7 yards-per-game on the

ground last season. Against the Giants (10/16), Dallas held Tiki Barber to 64 yards on

the ground. In the win over Detroit (11/20), Kevin Jones had 29 yards. Carolina’s

DeShaun Foster was held to 68 yards on 22 carries (12/24).

* The 19 rushing yards allowed by the Cowboys against the Eagles (10/9) was the fourth

best performance by a Dallas defense in franchise history.

I guess you just glossed over my followup postIs that a team that CAN'T stop the run?

According to that article(which was before week 17 game) they were ranked 14th against the run. Is that a team that can't stop the run?

They started how many rookies on D last year? To accomplish the above is impressive for any D, nevermind one loaded with inexperience that will only improve with experience.

 

[Bri]

i count more than 1 good game

I think when he called holding the Eagles to 19 total yards rushing "fairly impressive" that's about all you're gonna get out of him. Holding teams to those few yards rushing must happen "fairly" often

 

[Bri]

MoP said he was using a three year average to determine their SoS. From your own statement about their ranking it's obvious that they would not make that list based on the last three years. is it possible the cowboys run defense does considerably better, sure, but MoP was using historical precedent to determine 2006, not ones personal feelings.

I tried to look this up at NFL.com and their stat page form is funky2003-15th

http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/DEF-...ar?sort_col_1=7

also

http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/DEF-...ar?sort_col_1=7

2004-3rd

The funky part, both times I clicked 2003 regular season then defense then rushing The words at the top of the page(and in the link) say 2003 and then 2004 so.....let me just ask you, what's their rushing D average rank been over the last 3 years?

 

[Bri]

MOP,

you list 25th in YPC in the OL commentary more than once. Was there a tie? Is this an oops?

Indy OL didn't allow many sacks and cleared the way for Edge to run for 1506 yards. I think you're giving YPC a little too much weight.

YPC can also mean there was alot of grind out the clock runs to finish games. If in those games, their first series was a bit rough(started slow) then a RBs average YPC for the game is usually less than stellar even if the entire rest of the game he's a gem.

Having played in CDM years ago where YPC are fantasy points I can tell ya the great Barry Sanders "killed" me some weeks.

Ya don't see it here

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/SandBa00.htm

but ya do if you look here

http://www.profootballreference.com/games/SandBa00.htm

There you can see 17 carries for 24 yards, 13 for 35 etc.

Eddie George is the 16th ranked RB in rushing yards in NFL history and his YPC have never been "special" as he only had 4 or higher twice.

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/GeorEd00.htm

The BUS a HOF candidate, 5th in rushing yards in NFL history only had a YPC over 4 just 4 times. His YPC got as low as 3.2 and 3.3 some years.

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/BettJe00.htm

This board seems to have Curtis being a "lock" to go to the HOF.

He's been as low as 3.3 and 3.5 during his career.

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/MartCu00.htm

See HOF Earl's low YPC some years? Ya don't need to have watched him to know they pounded the ball with him early and often. Everyone says as such and surely you've heard.

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/CampEa00.htm

John Riggins, an excellent player but I don't think HOFer. In his best year(total rushing yards) as the main back, he also had his worst YPC average at 3.6.

I can carry on but I've brought up enough highly regarded backs with low average YPC but high total yards. I'm curious what you have to say about those guys. I understand most don't play anymore but since the NFL still has coaches that like to pound their RBs and still has good RBs, it's likely this comes up. How do you account for these "sled dog" types that carry the team on their shoulders?

If ya need a current player(other than "old" Martin) how about Portis? Running for 1500+ yards with Washington and with Denver but his average YPC is more than a yard less in Washington. You're predicting RBs and I assume 1500 yards is a very good season to you so....how does that affect your YPC thoughts?

 

[Real Man of Genius]

MOP "dirty secret about Dallas....can't stop the run" is wrong and obviously lacks research.

please check it out and report back if it affects your article/post. It is generally very well thought out and a good post

I just happen to have all 16 games on hand...let's take a look and really break it down.1. @SD 28-24...I think Gates was out that week but San Diego rushed for 103 yds on the ground...I don't go on individuals but overall team. Game was close...nothing special here.

2. WASH 13-14...fun MNF game in the last 2 minutes...gave up 104 yds on the ground...adequate I guess.

3. @SF 34-31...SF ran for 124 yds with a pretty suspect OL last season.

4. @Oak 13-19...Ouch, I'm sure they wish they had won that game when they look back at going 9-7 last season. Oakland has a terrible OL at this point and time...129 yds on the ground for them.

They haven't held a team to under 100 yds rushing yet...just keeping score...it'll get better.

5. Philadelphia 33-10...BLOWOUT! Reid doesn't call a lot of runs and when they fell behind they sure were not going to run much. 19 rushing yds for the day...but it was pretty much a blowout. But OK that's fairly impressive.

6. NYGiants 16-13 Held the GMen to 91 on the ground...solid effort

7. @Seattle 10-13...Lost the game but did hold the Seadogs in check with 72 yds.

8. ARIZONA 34-13...Blowout! Did hold them and a putrid OL to 71 yds rush in a blowout...I read little into that.

So they bounced back a bit.

9. @Philly 21-20...Held the Eagles to an eye popping 181 yds on the ground. It's amazing they won the game. Philly was ranked 28th in rushing yds for the season btw.

10. Detroit 20-7...Held the Lions to 57 on the ground. Detroit was 26th in the league in rushing last season...lot of people held them in check.

Now Dallas is 7-3 at this point and in the playoff hunt big time...this is when you need defenses to really clamp down for the stretch run into the playoffs. let's see how Parcells team did.

11. Denver 21-24...144 yds on the ground for Denver...hard team to stop for sure.

12. @NYGiants 10-17...give up 127 yds on the ground.

13. Kansas City 31-28...give up a whopping 161 on the ground. Did manage a win but they still have gotten run on good 3 weeks in a row.

14. @Wash 7-35...give up another 171 on the ground...what was Portis numbers in this one? 23 carries for 112 it seems.

And Dallas is now 8-6 after giving up no less than 125+ yds on the ground 4 weeks in a row when they are in the middle of a major playoff run...stout would not be a word I would use to describe their run defense at this point.

15. @Carolina 24-20...held them to 71 yds on the ground...Carolina ranked 29th in ypc rushing last season.

16. St.Louis 10-20...gave up 106 yds in the loss.

Let's see they held the 26th, 28th, 29th and 32nd ranked rushing teams to under 100 yds rushing...

Your resting your hat on the Seattle performance...that's 1 game.

They lost their best LB to retirement Dat Nguyen...he got injured last year...right about the time they slid into the toilet bowl...and now we're supposed to think that a rookie OLB from OSU is gonna lift them up and make them a great defense?

I'm sorry, who didn't do their research?

I'm glad you brought this up because I was a little unsure of putting Dallas into the lesser rush defenses but I feel good about it now.

FWIW, I am not sure 100 yards is a good team benchmark. Only 9 defenses held their opponents under 100 yards per game, on average, last season. Dallas was right in the middle of the pack at #15 (108 ypg). Not great, not terrible.Edited to add that I enjoyed your post. Well done!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

MOP,

you list 25th in YPC in the OL commentary more than once. Was there a tie? Is this an oops?

Indy OL didn't allow many sacks and cleared the way for Edge to run for 1506 yards. I think you're giving YPC a little too much weight.

YPC can also mean there was alot of grind out the clock runs to finish games. If in those games, their first series was a bit rough(started slow) then a RBs average YPC for the game is usually less than stellar even if the entire rest of the game he's a gem.

Having played in CDM years ago where YPC are fantasy points I can tell ya the great Barry Sanders "killed" me some weeks.

Ya don't see it here

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/SandBa00.htm

but ya do if you look here

http://www.profootballreference.com/games/SandBa00.htm

There you can see 17 carries for 24 yards, 13 for 35 etc.

Eddie George is the 16th ranked RB in rushing yards in NFL history and his YPC have never been "special" as he only had 4 or higher twice.

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/GeorEd00.htm

The BUS a HOF candidate, 5th in rushing yards in NFL history only had a YPC over 4 just 4 times. His YPC got as low as 3.2 and 3.3 some years.

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/BettJe00.htm

This board seems to have Curtis being a "lock" to go to the HOF.

He's been as low as 3.3 and 3.5 during his career.

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/MartCu00.htm

See HOF Earl's low YPC some years? Ya don't need to have watched him to know they pounded the ball with him early and often. Everyone says as such and surely you've heard.

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/CampEa00.htm

John Riggins, an excellent player but I don't think HOFer. In his best year(total rushing yards) as the main back, he also had his worst YPC average at 3.6.

I can carry on but I've brought up enough highly regarded backs with low average YPC but high total yards. I'm curious what you have to say about those guys. I understand most don't play anymore but since the NFL still has coaches that like to pound their RBs and still has good RBs, it's likely this comes up. How do you account for these "sled dog" types that carry the team on their shoulders?

If ya need a current player(other than "old" Martin) how about Portis? Running for 1500+ yards with Washington and with Denver but his average YPC is more than a yard less in Washington. You're predicting RBs and I assume 1500 yards is a very good season to you so....how does that affect your YPC thoughts?

I don't think I brought up ypc for any RB, did I? I tried very hard to leave that number out and try to focus on the overall team thus the 30% for the OL. Carolina and New England ties for 29th in the league with 3.4 ypc...I jsut don't understand the questions you are having with this article/thread...if you disagree with certain players then let's just cut to the chase and discuss them...but me having to keep defending very tiny little minooooot details within the body or context...I'm just not gonna keep doing it.Dallas has allowed over 4 ypc the past 2 seasons and they lost their top LB to retirement...are you a COwboys fan by chance? Who cares if they started rookie last season...should we give them a cookie, golf clap, a $5 Starbucks card? I don't feel the least bit sorry for them for starting rookies...usually if you have to start a few rookies its because of a rebuilding process. Parcells has rebuilt the defense...I just don't think they will be all that tough at stopping the run...you make it seem like I am saying Pittsburgh will blow chunks at stopping the run. You think Dallas is an elite defense...even if they are average that doesn't make a huge impact on the way I added up the formula so please get on with some debate over the rankings and lets talk about individuals.

Joffer agrees that Portis has a favorable run schedule with or without Dallas on the schedule...now let's get back on point.

 

[chedha]

 

[nerangers]

I give MOP credit...I could not fend off all of the questions like he is. Now I can see why he posted over the weekend.

 

[Big Score]

According to that article(which was before week 17 game) they were ranked 14th against the run. Is that a team that can't stop the run?

The best way to see how a run D really performed, is to look at their ypa ranking.This is probably the truest barometer, as it weeds out teams who have a supposed strong run D, but only achieved that because their pass D might have been worse and opposing teams went for the weakest link.

It also weeds out supposed high ranking run D's where opposing teams didn't really run on them because they were always in catch up mode.

Remember a few years back when the Raiders had the #1 Run D thru about week 5 or so, with a ridiculously few number of rushing yards given up? It was an artificial run D ranking because they jumped out to big leads early and the teams they were playing had to virtually abondon the run to try and catch up.

A few weeks later the run D came down as they ran into some teams who did not fall behind early and were able to use their running game against them.

Anyway, the 2005 Dallas run D for ypa, ranked 24th in the NFL at 4.18.

 

[Bri]

According to that article(which was before week 17 game) they were ranked 14th against the run. Is that a team that can't stop the run?

The best way to see how a run D really performed, is to look at their ypa ranking.This is probably the truest barometer, as it weeds out teams who have a supposed strong run D, but only achieved that because their pass D might have been worse and opposing teams went for the weakest link.

It also weeds out supposed high ranking run D's where opposing teams didn't really run on them because they were always in catch up mode.

Remember a few years back when the Raiders had the #1 Run D thru about week 5 or so, with a ridiculously few number of rushing yards given up? It was an artificial run D ranking because they jumped out to big leads early and the teams they were playing had to virtually abondon the run to try and catch up.

A few weeks later the run D came down as they ran into some teams who did not fall behind early and were able to use their running game against them.

Anyway, the 2005 Dallas run D for ypa, ranked 24th in the NFL at 4.18.

I disagree I mean c'mon it's rushing yards allowed per carry/attempt. How can you minimize total rushing yards allowed when that's the root stat you're getting your average from? It seems like "this stat didn't fulfill my theory so I'll try another"

sorry score, I just really strongly disagree

 

[Bri]

MOP,

you list 25th in YPC in the OL commentary more than once. Was there a tie? Is this an oops?

Indy OL didn't allow many sacks and cleared the way for Edge to run for 1506 yards. I think you're giving YPC a little too much weight.

YPC can also mean there was alot of grind out the clock runs to finish games. If in those games, their first series was a bit rough(started slow) then a RBs average YPC for the game is usually less than stellar even if the entire rest of the game he's a gem.

Having played in CDM years ago where YPC are fantasy points I can tell ya the great Barry Sanders "killed" me some weeks.

Ya don't see it here

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/SandBa00.htm

but ya do if you look here

http://www.profootballreference.com/games/SandBa00.htm

There you can see 17 carries for 24 yards, 13 for 35 etc.

Eddie George is the 16th ranked RB in rushing yards in NFL history and his YPC have never been "special" as he only had 4 or higher twice.

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/GeorEd00.htm

The BUS a HOF candidate, 5th in rushing yards in NFL history only had a YPC over 4 just 4 times. His YPC got as low as 3.2 and 3.3 some years.

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/BettJe00.htm

This board seems to have Curtis being a "lock" to go to the HOF.

He's been as low as 3.3 and 3.5 during his career.

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/MartCu00.htm

See HOF Earl's low YPC some years? Ya don't need to have watched him to know they pounded the ball with him early and often. Everyone says as such and surely you've heard.

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/CampEa00.htm

John Riggins, an excellent player but I don't think HOFer. In his best year(total rushing yards) as the main back, he also had his worst YPC average at 3.6.

I can carry on but I've brought up enough highly regarded backs with low average YPC but high total yards. I'm curious what you have to say about those guys. I understand most don't play anymore but since the NFL still has coaches that like to pound their RBs and still has good RBs, it's likely this comes up. How do you account for these "sled dog" types that carry the team on their shoulders?

If ya need a current player(other than "old" Martin) how about Portis? Running for 1500+ yards with Washington and with Denver but his average YPC is more than a yard less in Washington. You're predicting RBs and I assume 1500 yards is a very good season to you so....how does that affect your YPC thoughts?

I don't think I brought up ypc for any RB, did I? I tried very hard to leave that number out and try to focus on the overall team thus the 30% for the OL. Carolina and New England ties for 29th in the league with 3.4 ypc...I jsut don't understand the questions you are having with this article/thread...if you disagree with certain players then let's just cut to the chase and discuss them...but me having to keep defending very tiny little minooooot details within the body or context...I'm just not gonna keep doing it.Dallas has allowed over 4 ypc the past 2 seasons and they lost their top LB to retirement...are you a COwboys fan by chance? Who cares if they started rookie last season...should we give them a cookie, golf clap, a $5 Starbucks card? I don't feel the least bit sorry for them for starting rookies...usually if you have to start a few rookies its because of a rebuilding process. Parcells has rebuilt the defense...I just don't think they will be all that tough at stopping the run...you make it seem like I am saying Pittsburgh will blow chunks at stopping the run. You think Dallas is an elite defense...even if they are average that doesn't make a huge impact on the way I added up the formula so please get on with some debate over the rankings and lets talk about individuals.

Joffer agrees that Portis has a favorable run schedule with or without Dallas on the schedule...now let's get back on point.

MOP I don't know what's up with you. You're usually fun to debate with yet now you seem sensitive and .....well, I certainly didn't want to "upset" anyone

 

[Mr. Pink]

Great stuff, MoP.

Clearly one of the most thorough, insightful and thought provoking posts in this offseason. Gave me a different outlook on several RBs I've been targetting. Are your QB and WR analyses far behind?

Sorry to see there's one dissatisfied poster in the bunch. Shrug it off, this is quality stuff.

 

[Bri]

Sorry to see there's one dissatisfied poster in the bunch. Shrug it off, this is quality stuff.

It is generally very well thought out and a good post

 

[Ministry of Pain]

MOP,

you list 25th in YPC in the OL commentary more than once. Was there a tie? Is this an oops?

Indy OL didn't allow many sacks and cleared the way for Edge to run for 1506 yards. I think you're giving YPC a little too much weight.

YPC can also mean there was alot of grind out the clock runs to finish games. If in those games, their first series was a bit rough(started slow) then a RBs average YPC for the game is usually less than stellar even if the entire rest of the game he's a gem.

Having played in CDM years ago where YPC are fantasy points I can tell ya the great Barry Sanders "killed" me some weeks.

Ya don't see it here

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/SandBa00.htm

but ya do if you look here

http://www.profootballreference.com/games/SandBa00.htm

There you can see 17 carries for 24 yards, 13 for 35 etc.

Eddie George is the 16th ranked RB in rushing yards in NFL history and his YPC have never been "special" as he only had 4 or higher twice.

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/GeorEd00.htm

The BUS a HOF candidate, 5th in rushing yards in NFL history only had a YPC over 4 just 4 times. His YPC got as low as 3.2 and 3.3 some years.

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/BettJe00.htm

This board seems to have Curtis being a "lock" to go to the HOF.

He's been as low as 3.3 and 3.5 during his career.

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/MartCu00.htm

See HOF Earl's low YPC some years? Ya don't need to have watched him to know they pounded the ball with him early and often. Everyone says as such and surely you've heard.

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/CampEa00.htm

John Riggins, an excellent player but I don't think HOFer. In his best year(total rushing yards) as the main back, he also had his worst YPC average at 3.6.

I can carry on but I've brought up enough highly regarded backs with low average YPC but high total yards. I'm curious what you have to say about those guys. I understand most don't play anymore but since the NFL still has coaches that like to pound their RBs and still has good RBs, it's likely this comes up. How do you account for these "sled dog" types that carry the team on their shoulders?

If ya need a current player(other than "old" Martin) how about Portis? Running for 1500+ yards with Washington and with Denver but his average YPC is more than a yard less in Washington. You're predicting RBs and I assume 1500 yards is a very good season to you so....how does that affect your YPC thoughts?

I don't think I brought up ypc for any RB, did I? I tried very hard to leave that number out and try to focus on the overall team thus the 30% for the OL. Carolina and New England ties for 29th in the league with 3.4 ypc...I jsut don't understand the questions you are having with this article/thread...if you disagree with certain players then let's just cut to the chase and discuss them...but me having to keep defending very tiny little minooooot details within the body or context...I'm just not gonna keep doing it.Dallas has allowed over 4 ypc the past 2 seasons and they lost their top LB to retirement...are you a COwboys fan by chance? Who cares if they started rookie last season...should we give them a cookie, golf clap, a $5 Starbucks card? I don't feel the least bit sorry for them for starting rookies...usually if you have to start a few rookies its because of a rebuilding process. Parcells has rebuilt the defense...I just don't think they will be all that tough at stopping the run...you make it seem like I am saying Pittsburgh will blow chunks at stopping the run. You think Dallas is an elite defense...even if they are average that doesn't make a huge impact on the way I added up the formula so please get on with some debate over the rankings and lets talk about individuals.

Joffer agrees that Portis has a favorable run schedule with or without Dallas on the schedule...now let's get back on point.

MOP I don't know what's up with you. You're usually fun to debate with yet now you seem sensitive and .....well, I certainly didn't want to "upset" anyone

It's no problem Bri. Why not start a thread on the Dallas rushing defense and see what people say...we both might be surprised. But Score is right about where they ranked in ypc or ypa last season...same data I based my stuff on.

 

[Routilla]

The thing that sticks out about the DAL rushing D last year is inconsistency as you might expect from a younger defense. They had some really good games @SEA, WAS, PHI and some forgettable ones @OAK, @WAS etc. I believe a team's offensive performance can correlate to its defensive performance. My theory is that the more consistent the offense is in scoring points, the more consistent the D will be in allowing points. I saw DAL allowed 108 ypg with 13 TDs. So I see this as a tough D to run against on the average since you may get a performance like the SEA game vs S. Alexander in SEA no less or a performance like the KC game vs LJ in DAL. Again I believe DAL becomes more consistent with many young players logging lots of playing time last year and an offense that I believe becomes more consistent this year which will take pressure off of the D. Only time will tell of course. Good thread.

 

[Bri]

(try again)MOP,

“Cadillac” Williams: Tampa Bay2.7 B-ADP: 1.11Opps: (A-) Projected to be around 350 times this season.OL: (C-) This is still a work in progress to me. 32nd in rush TD last season…not that great in and around the goal line in my mind.Schedule: (C-) Not an easy schedule. CAR (2), Balt, Wash, Pitt, @Chi in week 15…he has a few easy games too but this is far from a cupcake schedule.Surround Cast: (B-) OK, Simms is a concern but Galloway and a healthy Clayton make a dynamic duo on the outside. Pittman possibly for a breather here and there. I like the pieces on offense.Intangibles: © Has not shown he can carry a full load all season…if he breaks down again for a month like he did last season then owners are going to be cursing him.

Not so against where Caddy is amidst ranking but I figure I'd discuss the reasons why I think he's more of a "sure thing" like his college buddy in 2006.32nd in rushing TDs should be cured with better blocking from both TEs(Gruden esp happy with Becht last I read and the rook's gotta improve) and Alstott's return. For me, Alstott is someone I figure teams don't wanna face around the goalline.re-intangibles-Here's a rebuttal someone gave me recently "What rookie RB doesn't get banged up and/or "hit the wall"? Not a fan of the Bell ranking but like someone riding him while everyone else is all over Dayne. I have a prob with the two being so close in the rankings. IF you were to project stats according to your rankings what does that give them? 800 each? (I see "ride the hot hand")If I say "pick one" you'd choose Bell, right? Why him over Dayne? can you elaborate?Re-Lamont Jordan and OL comments- What effect do you think Shell has on the OL?IIRC Marion Barber had more yards as a rook than Gore. But some brief mentions of Barber, what do you think of Julius and him. Again, "have to pick one" which do you draft+why? gut?Why don't you feel Deuce will be ready to go?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

(try again)

MOP,

“Cadillac” Williams: Tampa Bay

2.7 B-

ADP: 1.11

Opps: (A-) Projected to be around 350 times this season.

OL: (C-) This is still a work in progress to me. 32nd in rush TD last season…not that great in and around the goal line in my mind.

Schedule: (C-) Not an easy schedule. CAR (2), Balt, Wash, Pitt, @Chi in week 15…he has a few easy games too but this is far from a cupcake schedule.

Surround Cast: (B-) OK, Simms is a concern but Galloway and a healthy Clayton make a dynamic duo on the outside. Pittman possibly for a breather here and there. I like the pieces on offense.

Intangibles: © Has not shown he can carry a full load all season…if he breaks down again for a month like he did last season then owners are going to be cursing him.

Not so against where Caddy is amidst ranking but I figure I'd discuss the reasons why I think he's more of a "sure thing" like his college buddy in 2006.32nd in rushing TDs should be cured with better blocking from both TEs(Gruden esp happy with Becht last I read and the rook's gotta improve) and Alstott's return. For me, Alstott is someone I figure teams don't wanna face around the goalline.

re-intangibles-Here's a rebuttal someone gave me recently "What rookie RB doesn't get banged up and/or "hit the wall"?

Not a fan of the Bell ranking but like someone riding him while everyone else is all over Dayne. I have a prob with the two being so close in the rankings. IF you were to project stats according to your rankings what does that give them? 800 each? (I see "ride the hot hand")If I say "pick one" you'd choose Bell, right? Why him over Dayne? can you elaborate?

Re-Lamont Jordan and OL comments- What effect do you think Shell has on the OL?

IIRC Marion Barber had more yards as a rook than Gore. But some brief mentions of Barber, what do you think of Julius and him. Again, "have to pick one" which do you draft+why? gut?

Why don't you feel Deuce will be ready to go?

Great questions, lets discuss.1. "Cadillac"...while I live in Santa Monica/LA and do not have an NFL team here, most know I lived in Tampa for 10 years and Miami for 18 b4 that so I am a long time Bucs and Phish fan. I may have gone the opposite of a homer and overcompensated the other way. I like Caddy but his frame is a lot smaller than Ronnie Brown. COuld be a bit more of an injury risk...not sure if Simms is much help to anyone under center.

2. Bell/Dayne...just did a mock draft where at the #12 spot I grabbed Bell with the 4.01 and Dayne with the 5.12....You could bend that to a 3rd/6th pick on these 2. I don't care which one blows up but I want them both on my team if I don't have a top3-5 pick...you have to be able to answer the Bell against guys like LJ and LT. It isn't going to happen by taking Kevin and Julius Jones most likely...so I am looking for pop thru teams that continually spit out good rushing numbers...Denver fills that bill.

I like Tatum because he has pure speed...Dayne does not as far as I can tell. I think Dayne will take play himself out of the starting role. bell has shown consistency for 2 seasons in Denver and can at least catch the ball out of the backfield...Dayne is not much of a receiving threat. This is kind of like having to put a definition on pornography..."You simply know it when you see it"...I think I see something in Bell that I don't in Dayne.

But in case I am totally wrong, I want them both on my team. One of these 2 RB will do very well this season. And burning 2 picks in rounds 3-6 to lock up 1 of your RB spots...OK with me.

3. 12th, 17th, 12th, 27th(1993/28 total teams), 20th, Art Shell never cracked the top10 in ypc for any team he was head coach to start the season with. I'm not mesmerized by what he brings to the Raiders...I think this hiring was desperation for a team that might not win 4 games this season. Their defense is so brutal IMO...I don't see how they can win? Owners will assume that means big opps for Moss and Brooks...but we have seen that when teams get blowout...doesn't always equate to great things for the offense.

4. Not a big fan of the Dallas OL...think both will have trouble running behind it. Not planning on drafting either of them.

5. Deuce might be able to carry the ball but I doubt he will have the pop in his step for another year. Edge took awhile coming back...many other RB experience the same...not to mention the new toy in the backfield that fans will be aching to see.

 

[Big Score]

According to that article(which was before week 17 game) they were ranked 14th against the run. Is that a team that can't stop the run?

The best way to see how a run D really performed, is to look at their ypa ranking.This is probably the truest barometer, as it weeds out teams who have a supposed strong run D, but only achieved that because their pass D might have been worse and opposing teams went for the weakest link.

It also weeds out supposed high ranking run D's where opposing teams didn't really run on them because they were always in catch up mode.

Remember a few years back when the Raiders had the #1 Run D thru about week 5 or so, with a ridiculously few number of rushing yards given up? It was an artificial run D ranking because they jumped out to big leads early and the teams they were playing had to virtually abondon the run to try and catch up.

A few weeks later the run D came down as they ran into some teams who did not fall behind early and were able to use their running game against them.

Anyway, the 2005 Dallas run D for ypa, ranked 24th in the NFL at 4.18.

I disagree I mean c'mon it's rushing yards allowed per carry/attempt. How can you minimize total rushing yards allowed when that's the root stat you're getting your average from? It seems like "this stat didn't fulfill my theory so I'll try another"

sorry score, I just really strongly disagree

Of course it's your prerogative to disagree, but the fact of the matter is, (regardless of how many times teams ran the ball against the Cowboys and the total yardage they ended up surrendering in 2005) they gave up on average, 4+ yards per rushing attempt. Whenever I'm drafting and it's my turn to pick and I'm after a RB, I've got them sorted into to tiers. Within the tiers I've run an excel sheet for the D's each RB will face and gotten the average rushing yards per attempt the D's they face gave up the previous year. I tweak the avg up or down depending on what the D team has done in the off season.

I then select the RB whose run D schedule is the most favorable for average yards per carry given up, regardless of how many total rushing yards those D's that RB will be facing gave up.

I've used this system going on 7 years now and every year (barring injury) the RB I've chosen from the tier of fairly equal RB's, that particular RB ended up posting the highest rushing totals.

Basically, for me to ignore a Defensive teams average yards given up per rushing attempt, would fly in the face of 7 years worth of RB data.

It is not a matter of "this stat didn't fulfill my theory so I'll try another".

 

[(HULK)]

Mcgahee's rush schedule...let's have a look.

@NE...tough

@Miami...tough

NYJ...good match up

MN...indifferent

@Chicago...tough

@Detroit...indifferent

NE....tough

Bye

GB...indifferent

@Indy...good match up

@Hou...good match up

JAX...indifferent to tough

SanDiego...tough

@NYJ...good match up

Miami...tough

Tenn...good match up

@Balt...tough

5 good match ups and 7 tough match ups...only 1 good match up in the 1st 7 weeks if you look at the NYJ as I do and in a rebuilding mode.  Gonna be tough to trade him if he comes out slow too...I just don't see this schedule helping but much more of a hindrince than anything.

You have Ronnie Brown's schedule rated as an "A" though, and they've got all the same opponents (except for their own teams).PS- I love this article. I do buckets too, although I haven't ever gotten this indepth. I might copy cat your style this year though.

 

[Urinal Mint]

I like your work and look forward to debating your points as we move into training camp.

 

[Bri]

According to that article(which was before week 17 game) they were ranked 14th against the run. Is that a team that can't stop the run?

The best way to see how a run D really performed, is to look at their ypa ranking.This is probably the truest barometer, as it weeds out teams who have a supposed strong run D, but only achieved that because their pass D might have been worse and opposing teams went for the weakest link.

It also weeds out supposed high ranking run D's where opposing teams didn't really run on them because they were always in catch up mode.

Remember a few years back when the Raiders had the #1 Run D thru about week 5 or so, with a ridiculously few number of rushing yards given up? It was an artificial run D ranking because they jumped out to big leads early and the teams they were playing had to virtually abondon the run to try and catch up.

A few weeks later the run D came down as they ran into some teams who did not fall behind early and were able to use their running game against them.

Anyway, the 2005 Dallas run D for ypa, ranked 24th in the NFL at 4.18.

I disagree I mean c'mon it's rushing yards allowed per carry/attempt. How can you minimize total rushing yards allowed when that's the root stat you're getting your average from? It seems like "this stat didn't fulfill my theory so I'll try another"

sorry score, I just really strongly disagree

Of course it's your prerogative to disagree, but the fact of the matter is, (regardless of how many times teams ran the ball against the Cowboys and the total yardage they ended up surrendering in 2005) they gave up on average, 4+ yards per rushing attempt. Whenever I'm drafting and it's my turn to pick and I'm after a RB, I've got them sorted into to tiers. Within the tiers I've run an excel sheet for the D's each RB will face and gotten the average rushing yards per attempt the D's they face gave up the previous year. I tweak the avg up or down depending on what the D team has done in the off season.

I then select the RB whose run D schedule is the most favorable for average yards per carry given up, regardless of how many total rushing yards those D's that RB will be facing gave up.

I've used this system going on 7 years now and every year (barring injury) the RB I've chosen from the tier of fairly equal RB's, that particular RB ended up posting the highest rushing totals.

Basically, for me to ignore a Defensive teams average yards given up per rushing attempt, would fly in the face of 7 years worth of RB data.

It is not a matter of "this stat didn't fulfill my theory so I'll try another".

well, whatever works for you I guess

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I want to hear form more people. I know some of you all have more stuff to say.

Appreciate the positives so far and Joffer and Bri's challenges certainly make for good banter as well. C'mon ya'll.

 

[(HULK)]

I want to hear form more people. I know some of you all have more stuff to say.

Appreciate the positives so far and Joffer and Bri's challenges certainly make for good banter as well. C'mon ya'll.

Why is Buffalo's schedule rated a "D" and Miami's rated an "A" when they have roughly the same schedule?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I want to hear form more people.  I know some of you all have more stuff to say.

Appreciate the positives so far and Joffer and Bri's challenges certainly make for good banter as well.  C'mon ya'll.

Why is Buffalo's schedule rated a "D" and Miami's rated an "A" when they have roughly the same schedule?

One reason is they play each other twice...Buffalo is in my bottom 12 rush defenses so that's 2 extra games for Miami...and then Miami is in my top 8-10 rush defenses so that's 2 tough games to add to Buffalo's side. Miami gets Buffalo, TN, Houston, and the NYJ in 4 of their 1st 6 games...i see them running well in all of those games. Pitt and NE will not be easy on the road but much better in Sept/earlyOct than December. Brown will have a nice quick start to the season which will help owners possibly even leverage this guy for an even better RB for the 2nd half of the season.

Will also play GB, KC, MN all at home while its still pretty hot and sticky..closes with NYJ, Buff, and Indy.

I think Brown has a better schedule.

 

[(HULK)]

I want to hear form more people.  I know some of you all have more stuff to say.

Appreciate the positives so far and Joffer and Bri's challenges certainly make for good banter as well.  C'mon ya'll.

Why is Buffalo's schedule rated a "D" and Miami's rated an "A" when they have roughly the same schedule?

One reason is they play each other twice...Buffalo is in my bottom 12 rush defenses so that's 2 extra games for Miami...and then Miami is in my top 8-10 rush defenses so that's 2 tough games to add to Buffalo's side. Miami gets Buffalo, TN, Houston, and the NYJ in 4 of their 1st 6 games...i see them running well in all of those games. Pitt and NE will not be easy on the road but much better in Sept/earlyOct than December. Brown will have a nice quick start to the season which will help owners possibly even leverage this guy for an even better RB for the 2nd half of the season.

Will also play GB, KC, MN all at home while its still pretty hot and sticky..closes with NYJ, Buff, and Indy.

I think Brown has a better schedule.

I agree that Brown's schedule is slightly better because he faces Buf instead of Mia, and because his great matchups in weeks 15 and 16. However, I don't think this is a big enough difference to rate McGahee's schedule as a D.I would give Brown's schedule an A or A+ even.

I would bump up McGahee's schedule to at least a B.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Why does Dayne get a "B" for intangibles, the same grade as Tiki. The explanations for Dayne's grade in that category seem more to do with surrounding cast and opps than intangibles.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Why does Dayne get a "B" for intangibles, the same grade as Tiki. The explanations for Dayne's grade in that category seem more to do with surrounding cast and opps than intangibles.

The intangibles are really an area where I can inject some personal gut feelings based on the weight of the other 4 categories...but I only count it as 10% so it can't bring the entire overall grading system down all that much.Dayne got a "B" based almost entirely on the fact Shanny syas he is the starter at this point and time...you have to take that seriously.

 

[Big Blue Wrecking Crew]

 

[pigskinliquors]

Great Post MOP!! Another example of why I believe you are the best fantasy mind on this board. Very insightful, and more importantly, your results can be defended. While I have disagreements with some of your rankings, I can not argue against your methods. Extremely well-done!

~Liquor

 

[tommyGunZ]

Wow - thx for bumping this - I missed it when it was originally posted a week ago. I need a couple hours to digest and come back with some opinions, but this is why the Shark Pool RULEZ.

Fantastic work MOP.

 

[rascal]

I'm doing the same thing and hope to have it done soon. Be interesting to compare.

 

[AB in DC]

Larry Johnson: KC

3.5 A

ADP: 1.01

OL: (A) 5th in ypc last season. 2nd in rush TD. Great OL still intact.

Spoke too soon MOP...

 

[djjosee]

 

[Da Beers]

Thanks MOP -- I look forward to these threads every year

 

[broncofan13000]

thanks for the work, i'll be revisiting this thread for sure...

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Good stuff MOP.