Mortgage Rates (2 Viewers)

[General Malaise]

Mortgage rates tumble on tariffs, but housing costs still near record high​

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/mortgage-rates-tumble-tariffs.html

This is a huge goal, need lower rates not just for housing affordability but to finance our bloated debt. We'll see where it goes from here.

I thought we didn't want inflation?

 

[djmich]

Mortgage rates tumble on tariffs, but housing costs still near record high​

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/mortgage-rates-tumble-tariffs.html

This is a huge goal, need lower rates not just for housing affordability but to finance our bloated debt. We'll see where it goes from here.

I thought we didn't want inflation?

We don't? Rates are generally correlated with expectations around inflation. Rates typically wouldn't go down if expectations for inflation go up.

 

[General Malaise]

Mortgage rates tumble on tariffs, but housing costs still near record high​

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/mortgage-rates-tumble-tariffs.html

This is a huge goal, need lower rates not just for housing affordability but to finance our bloated debt. We'll see where it goes from here.

I thought we didn't want inflation?

We don't? Rates are generally correlated with expectations around inflation. Rates typically wouldn't go down if expectations for inflation go up.

Are you suggesting that we want higher inflation? I thought that was a major selling point of the last election?

 

[djmich]

Mortgage rates tumble on tariffs, but housing costs still near record high​

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/mortgage-rates-tumble-tariffs.html

This is a huge goal, need lower rates not just for housing affordability but to finance our bloated debt. We'll see where it goes from here.

I thought we didn't want inflation?

We don't? Rates are generally correlated with expectations around inflation. Rates typically wouldn't go down if expectations for inflation go up.

Are you suggesting that we want higher inflation? I thought that was a major selling point of the last election?

We don't, that's what I was saying, we don't?? Where did I say we did? Mortgage rates tumbled, thats what my comment was about. You brough up inflation, not me, to which I added typically you would not see long term rates go lower if higher inflation is expected. They are typically correlated.

To be clear we want great gdp growth, full employment, no inflation, less taxes, to save the world, import the worlds goods and people, all the benefits of running a huge fiscal deficit with huge debt load just spending our way to 25% annual stock market returns.

 

[Instinctive]

As someone buying a house in the next 1-5 years probably...is LOVE to see rates come down. My mortgage is like $3500/month. At today's rates plus home price, I'd be paying double that for my own house. It's bonkers.

 

[General Malaise]

Mortgage rates tumble on tariffs, but housing costs still near record high​

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/mortgage-rates-tumble-tariffs.html

This is a huge goal, need lower rates not just for housing affordability but to finance our bloated debt. We'll see where it goes from here.

I thought we didn't want inflation?

We don't? Rates are generally correlated with expectations around inflation. Rates typically wouldn't go down if expectations for inflation go up.

Are you suggesting that we want higher inflation? I thought that was a major selling point of the last election?

We don't, that's what I was saying, we don't?? Where did I say we did? Mortgage rates tumbled, thats what my comment was about. You brough up inflation, not me, to which I added typically you would not see long term rates go lower if higher inflation is expected. They are typically correlated.

To be clear we want great gdp growth, full employment, no inflation, less taxes, to save the world, import the worlds goods and people, all the benefits of running a huge fiscal deficit with huge debt load just spending our way to 25% annual stock market returns.

Your awkward use of question marks confuse and baffle me.

 

[djmich]

Mortgage rates tumble on tariffs, but housing costs still near record high​

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/mortgage-rates-tumble-tariffs.html

This is a huge goal, need lower rates not just for housing affordability but to finance our bloated debt. We'll see where it goes from here.

I thought we didn't want inflation?

We don't? Rates are generally correlated with expectations around inflation. Rates typically wouldn't go down if expectations for inflation go up.

Are you suggesting that we want higher inflation? I thought that was a major selling point of the last election?

We don't, that's what I was saying, we don't?? Where did I say we did? Mortgage rates tumbled, thats what my comment was about. You brough up inflation, not me, to which I added typically you would not see long term rates go lower if higher inflation is expected. They are typically correlated.

To be clear we want great gdp growth, full employment, no inflation, less taxes, to save the world, import the worlds goods and people, all the benefits of running a huge fiscal deficit with huge debt load just spending our way to 25% annual stock market returns.

Your awkward use of question marks confuse and baffle me.

Yes, I realize that now lol. All good man.

 

[General Malaise]

Mortgage rates tumble on tariffs, but housing costs still near record high​

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/mortgage-rates-tumble-tariffs.html

This is a huge goal, need lower rates not just for housing affordability but to finance our bloated debt. We'll see where it goes from here.

I thought we didn't want inflation?

We don't? Rates are generally correlated with expectations around inflation. Rates typically wouldn't go down if expectations for inflation go up.

Are you suggesting that we want higher inflation? I thought that was a major selling point of the last election?

We don't, that's what I was saying, we don't?? Where did I say we did? Mortgage rates tumbled, thats what my comment was about. You brough up inflation, not me, to which I added typically you would not see long term rates go lower if higher inflation is expected. They are typically correlated.

To be clear we want great gdp growth, full employment, no inflation, less taxes, to save the world, import the worlds goods and people, all the benefits of running a huge fiscal deficit with huge debt load just spending our way to 25% annual stock market returns.

Your awkward use of question marks confuse and baffle me.

Yes, I realize that now lol. All good man.

Fed is going to have to lower rates, right? In this environment, it's now essential. Good for borrowers, bad for inflation.

I can't tell what anybody is rooting for anymore. Cheaper mortgage rates are great for new home buyers, but bad for people crying about the price of eggs.

Right?

 

[djmich]

Mortgage rates tumble on tariffs, but housing costs still near record high​

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/mortgage-rates-tumble-tariffs.html

This is a huge goal, need lower rates not just for housing affordability but to finance our bloated debt. We'll see where it goes from here.

I thought we didn't want inflation?

We don't? Rates are generally correlated with expectations around inflation. Rates typically wouldn't go down if expectations for inflation go up.

Are you suggesting that we want higher inflation? I thought that was a major selling point of the last election?

We don't, that's what I was saying, we don't?? Where did I say we did? Mortgage rates tumbled, thats what my comment was about. You brough up inflation, not me, to which I added typically you would not see long term rates go lower if higher inflation is expected. They are typically correlated.

To be clear we want great gdp growth, full employment, no inflation, less taxes, to save the world, import the worlds goods and people, all the benefits of running a huge fiscal deficit with huge debt load just spending our way to 25% annual stock market returns.

Your awkward use of question marks confuse and baffle me.

Yes, I realize that now lol. All good man.

Fed is going to have to lower rates, right? In this environment, it's now essential. Good for borrowers, bad for inflation.

I can't tell what anybody is rooting for anymore. Cheaper mortgage rates are great for new home buyers, but bad for people crying about the price of eggs.

Right?

I honestly don't think the Fed lowering rates means much to long term rates. Long term rates are going to be based on the markets expectations for inflation and a number of other factors (spending, printing of money, etc). Lower long-term rates are generally good, are not indicative of inflation, including for the price of eggs lol. Thats my understanding, open to different data and fact patterns.

If the Fed could lower 30yr rates, they should tomorrow so we can refinance all our debt. And then we can raise them again at some point.

 

[Nugget]

I had fed at one cut for 2025, 2 for 2026. I’d lean towards zero for 2025 at this point.

 

[Stoneworker]

I had fed at one cut for 2025, 2 for 2026. I’d lean towards zero for 2025 at this point.

That's interesting because today the CME Fedwatch probability for a 25 bps cut at the May FOMC mtg just went from 10% to 33%.

 

[djmich]

I had fed at one cut for 2025, 2 for 2026. I’d lean towards zero for 2025 at this point.

That's interesting because today the CME Fedwatch probability for a 25 bps cut at the May FOMC mtg just went from 10% to 33%.

Right, if there’s any fears of the economy cooling off because of tariffs, that is more likely to induce more cuts than less

 

[Nugget]

I had fed at one cut for 2025, 2 for 2026. I’d lean towards zero for 2025 at this point.

That's interesting because today the CME Fedwatch probability for a 25 bps cut at the May FOMC mtg just went from 10% to 33%.

Right, if there’s any fears of the economy cooling off because of tariffs, that is more likely to induce more cuts than less

I don't see the fed cutting rates while inflation is rising. I think less housing gets built due to supply costs and I see a shift in production to more expensive US based vehicles (Trucks/Large SUVs) vs the small cars/SUVs from Mexico. Fed's preferred inlfation metric doesn't include food or fuel costs. I do see gas prices dropping as OPEC over supplies the market. As the 10 year falls, I don't see housing prices falling.

 

[djmich]

I had fed at one cut for 2025, 2 for 2026. I’d lean towards zero for 2025 at this point.

That's interesting because today the CME Fedwatch probability for a 25 bps cut at the May FOMC mtg just went from 10% to 33%.

Right, if there’s any fears of the economy cooling off because of tariffs, that is more likely to induce more cuts than less

I don't see the fed cutting rates while inflation is rising. I think less housing gets built due to supply costs and I see a shift in production to more expensive US based vehicles (Trucks/Large SUVs) vs the small cars/SUVs from Mexico. Fed's preferred inlfation metric doesn't include food or fuel costs. I do see gas prices dropping as OPEC over supplies the market. As the 10 year falls, I don't see housing prices falling.

Totally possible. They’ll have to balance inflation, economy, and a crap ton of federal debt to find buyers for.

 

[Stoneworker]

I had fed at one cut for 2025, 2 for 2026. I’d lean towards zero for 2025 at this point.

That's interesting because today the CME Fedwatch probability for a 25 bps cut at the May FOMC mtg just went from 10% to 33%.

Right, if there’s any fears of the economy cooling off because of tariffs, that is more likely to induce more cuts than less

I don't see the fed cutting rates while inflation is rising. I think less housing gets built due to supply costs and I see a shift in production to more expensive US based vehicles (Trucks/Large SUVs) vs the small cars/SUVs from Mexico. Fed's preferred inlfation metric doesn't include food or fuel costs. I do see gas prices dropping as OPEC over supplies the market. As the 10 year falls, I don't see housing prices falling.

Potentially. There is certainly debate but today's moves indicate that the mkts believe near-term recession/unemployment risks outweigh inflation. That and the Fed recently stating that it would be "looking through" tariff-related inflation spikes (i.e. the "T" word).

 

[Chadstroma]

10 year treasury yield under 4%. Lowest in 7 months.

 

[Chadstroma]

Where are your re-fi rates right now?

Really depends. I just quoted a client with a conventional A paper 6.875%/7.040%APR

 

[Chadstroma]

According to the Federal Reserve, U.S. homeowners held over $29 trillion in home equity in 2023

 

[Chadstroma]

Back over 4% yield on the 10 year

 

[Chadstroma]

4.407% 10 yr yield right now. Jumped up. Speculation on margin calls and, dumping by Chinese, Japanese and UK.

 

[The Z Machine]

4.407% 10 yr yield right now. Jumped up. Speculation on margin calls and, dumping by Chinese, Japanese and UK.

Can you blame them?

 

[Chadstroma]

4.407% 10 yr yield right now. Jumped up. Speculation on margin calls and, dumping by Chinese, Japanese and UK.

Can you blame them?

Kind of reminds me of the kid that gets upset and knocks the monopoly board over when they get called out on their cheating but yea... I don't blame them. It sucks not to be able to take advantage of someone after doing it for so very long.

Most countries are knocking down the door to negotiate. China will hold out for sure but when it comes down to it, their economy, which has been struggling for a while and been sucking on Chinese stimulus, needs us more than we need them. So, economically, China will break first and I believe they know that but I think that they are hoping to break the political will of the US to reverse. With the divisiveness we see currently, I can't say that is a bad bet but at the same time this administration is taking action to change how things are done probably more than any administration since Teddy Rosevelt.

I do think it is interesting how those upset about these tariffs the most never said a peep over the last 4 years. And some of the loudest politicians against it now were pushing tariffs against China well before Trump was even in politics. Politics has a way of shifting the narratives politicians push. I am not worried about that as much as I am on the economic and geopolitics of this all. China is, without any doubt, a nation security problem that we have consistently been losing ground to in economically, geopolitically, and militarily. Forcing China to either become a true trading partner (best outcome) or to stop it from eating off of us like a parasite that gets stronger as it's host gets weaker is the not as desirable of an outcome but still good. We really can not continue on the course we have been.

For all other countries, I have full expectation that deals will be made and a level playing field will be gained which will be positive for the US long term. If it was easy and not at any cost, previous politicians would have done it well before.

 

[Manster]

4.407% 10 yr yield right now. Jumped up. Speculation on margin calls and, dumping by Chinese, Japanese and UK.

Can you blame them?

Kind of reminds me of the kid that gets upset and knocks the monopoly board over when they get called out on their cheating but yea... I don't blame them. It sucks not to be able to take advantage of someone after doing it for so very long.

Most countries are knocking down the door to negotiate. China will hold out for sure but when it comes down to it, their economy, which has been struggling for a while and been sucking on Chinese stimulus, needs us more than we need them. So, economically, China will break first and I believe they know that but I think that they are hoping to break the political will of the US to reverse. With the divisiveness we see currently, I can't say that is a bad bet but at the same time this administration is taking action to change how things are done probably more than any administration since Teddy Rosevelt.

I do think it is interesting how those upset about these tariffs the most never said a peep over the last 4 years. And some of the loudest politicians against it now were pushing tariffs against China well before Trump was even in politics. Politics has a way of shifting the narratives politicians push. I am not worried about that as much as I am on the economic and geopolitics of this all. China is, without any doubt, a nation security problem that we have consistently been losing ground to in economically, geopolitically, and militarily. Forcing China to either become a true trading partner (best outcome) or to stop it from eating off of us like a parasite that gets stronger as it's host gets weaker is the not as desirable of an outcome but still good. We really can not continue on the course we have been.

For all other countries, I have full expectation that deals will be made and a level playing field will be gained which will be positive for the US long term. If it was easy and not at any cost, previous politicians would have done it well before.

Theres some great info here.

My guy good, your guy bad.....its amazing how the narrative on political stances can shift depending on who's making the call, and how it's being portrayed in the media.....its been going on since the beginning of time.

I think with the current administration, folks lose site of that, even more than normal........it all feels ham handed, so I get it. I honestly don't even know how to feel about the direction of our country. I'm definitely trying to look at it from an economic standpoint. So I appreciate your post Chad.

 

[The Z Machine]

Chad, I think you're underestimating Xi here. He doesn't have to answer to anyone and is playing a longer game than anyone in the west.

 

[Chadstroma]

Chad, I think you're underestimating Xi here. He doesn't have to answer to anyone and is playing a longer game than anyone in the west.

Xi is in a much more precarious position that I think you are considering. China is, as we all know, under an authoritarian police state. This has not been an issue since Tiananmen Square Massacre largely due to the enormous economical explosion of prosperity at break neck speed for a very long time. We saw small cracks with how quickly the people could turn on the government with the real estate crisis from Evergrande (which they are still not out of yet). Their economy exports about 16-17% of their exports to us while we export about 7% of ours to them.

The goal here is to level the playing field. China does not allow US to buy land at all in China. They put tariffs and other barriers to trade from US. They manipulate thier currency to make their exports cheaper and imports more expensive. They steal intellectual properties and force technological transfers. They subsidize state own businesses to give them competitive advantages and they do product dumping to force competition out of business. This is not even touching on the myriad of spying, territorial bullying, threatening Taiwan on almost a daily basis, and much more. We have allowed them (Presidents of both parties) to take our money and kick us in the rear as they do it to their benefit almost non-stop. It is truly a national security issue. I know you have been in the Ukraine thread enough to have seen some of my posts that the real impact of the Ukraine War is about stopping China from invading Taiwan (something that we can not allow, not even on moral, political, or for commitment but simply economic survival. Taiwan can not fall to China and that means a direct war with us that would result in millions of deaths and a true WWIII)

The advantage of Xi is that he doesn't have an opposition party and a media that is mostly aligned against him. But the Chinese society will only allow him so much free range and the more the Chinese economy struggles, the more his grip on power is in danger. He cares about that much more than he does winning a trade war.

 

[Chadstroma]

Theres some great info here.

My guy good, your guy bad.....its amazing how the narrative on political stances can shift depending on who's making the call, and how it's being portrayed in the media.....its been going on since the beginning of time.

I think with the current administration, folks lose site of that, even more than normal........it all feels ham handed, so I get it. I honestly don't even know how to feel about the direction of our country. I'm definitely trying to look at it from an economic standpoint. So I appreciate your post Chad.

I think the communication is the ham handed... since Trump talks like a 6 year old.

 

[Chadstroma]

US Treasury 10-year note auction outcome shows strong demand​

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A U.S. Treasury debt auction of $39 billion in benchmark 10-year notes was well received on Wednesday, showing solid investor demand even after a bond market sell-off driven by an escalating trade war between the United States and its major trading partners led by China.

The U.S. Treasury's auction came in better than expected, priced at a high yield of 4.435%, lower than the rate forecast at the bid deadline.

After the auction, the 10-year yield was last at 4.38%, down from 4.466% just before the 1300 EDT auction. That said, the 10-year has risen sharply this week by 37 basis points, on track for its largest weekly gain since June 2013.

"The 10-year Treasury auction went better than expected certainly against a backdrop where the bond market had been trading very weakly over the course of the last week," said Jeffrey Palma, head of multi-asset solutions and macro research, at Cohen Steers in New York.

"That strong result at least in the short run is a positive for sentiment. The longer-term questions still remain around the impact from tariffs and so forth on growth. But at least for the short run it's a bit of welcome good news against what has been a tough backdrop."

The auction statistics were robust across the board.

The bid-to-cover ratio, another gauge of demand, was 2.67, the highest since December, solidly above the 2.53 average.

Indirect bidders, which include foreign central banks, took up a record 87.9% of the bids, up from 67.4% last month.

Dealer participation was at 10.7%, lower than the 13.1% in the previous month and the 14.5% average. High dealer participation in Treasury auctions suggests lack of interest from other investors, meaning dealers had to step in to absorb the note.

Investors have been worried about the prospect of a major trade conflict, which has sparked worries about demand for what is supposed to be a global safe haven.

Those fears may have eased for now after U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he would pause many of his new tariffs for 90 days, even as he raised them further on imports from China.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Treasury sold $58 billion in three-year notes and it was poorly received by the market. The note was priced at 3.784%, higher by over 2 bps than what the market indicated, suggesting investors demanded a premium to buy the three-year debt. In bond market parlance, the three-year note auction "tailed".

Last month's 10-year note auction came in within expectations as well, with end-user demand stable. The bid-to-cover ratio, another gauge of demand, was 2.59, the highest since December.

Wells Fargo had earlier pointed out in a research note that 10-year note auctions in April usually tend to be weak.

The last five 10-year reopening auctions had been softer than anticipated, with the largest tail in n 2024 at 3.1 bps. The average tail over the last five years was 1.8 bps, Wells Fargo wrote.

On Thursday, the U.S. Treasury will sell the last supply for the week: $22 billion in 30-year bonds. The long-term bond has been massively sold off in the cash market pushing their yields to the highest since November 2023. The 30-year bond yield was last up 7.7 bps at 4.791%.

 

[The Z Machine]

The advantage of Xi is that he doesn't have an opposition party and a media that is mostly aligned against him. But the Chinese society will only allow him so much free range and the more the Chinese economy struggles, the more his grip on power is in danger.

When was the last time the people of China had any say in their leadership and forced a transfer of power? 1949? Not that I'm an expert, but I talk with Chinese colleagues daily and have been there for work maybe 10 times. They are willing to withstand much more economic pain than Americans. Plus, they have no means to effect change. Finally, Xi has purged a lot of those that could challenge him and there's really nobody that would step in and reverse course to negotiate with the US. A deal will only happen if Xi wants to make a deal. Same with Trump, although ostensibly Trump's time is limited and Xi's is not.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

China has a giant population problem that will take years, maybe decades, to play out and there's no guarantee of reversal. Do people have children when under an authoritarian government where there's economic instability?

 

[The Z Machine]

China has a giant population problem that will take years, maybe decades, to play out and there's no guarantee of reversal. Do people have children when under an authoritarian government where there's economic instability?

I think that die was cast 20 years ago. China took too long to reverse the 1 child policy and there will be a demographic gulf that cannot be easily made up. I cam tell you that my colleagues now often have 2 children under 10 but few have more than that.

 

[Chadstroma]

The advantage of Xi is that he doesn't have an opposition party and a media that is mostly aligned against him. But the Chinese society will only allow him so much free range and the more the Chinese economy struggles, the more his grip on power is in danger.

When was the last time the people of China had any say in their leadership and forced a transfer of power? 1949? Not that I'm an expert, but I talk with Chinese colleagues daily and have been there for work maybe 10 times. They are willing to withstand much more economic pain than Americans. Plus, they have no means to effect change. Finally, Xi has purged a lot of those that could challenge him and there's really nobody that would step in and reverse course to negotiate with the US. A deal will only happen if Xi wants to make a deal. Same with Trump, although ostensibly Trump's time is limited and Xi's is not.

Xi Jinping is worried about the economy - what do Chinese people think?

Two new pieces of research offer a rare glimpse into how Chinese people feel about their future.

www.bbc.com

A whole lot of prosperity tends to pacify a populace. Unlike say Venezuela or Russia, Chinese citizens have seen their standard of living exponentially increase over the last couple of decades. When your life is much better now than it was before you can forgive a lot of the harshness in other areas where you lack freedom.

We have seen protests happen more and more in China since the real estate crisis in ways previously never seen. There is a direct corelation on that.

Anc again, they export to us way more than we export to them. And no matter how much they have grown, they are still a much smaller economy than ours. Our economy can outlast theirs and our society can outlast theirs. The one advantage they have is political as they can outlast ours to a point until the economic pressures cause unres which could threaten the communist party.

The suspension of other tariffs and increase against China is a clear signal to Xi. Come, be reasonable and negotiate. And after all, don't liberals say Trump is crazy, maniacal and more? Why would a guy like that fold in something like this? In negotiations it pays to have your opposition believe you are willing to go the distance further than you. If liberals believe what they say and how the world sees Trump, why wouldn't the world believe we are willing to do what we say.

 

[The Z Machine]

I'm not going to comment directly on the behaviors and psychology of our leadership as that's not within guidelines here. While many of the economic stats you say are true, I think the structure of the 2 societies and the social-political-economic contract are very different. China has a distinct advantage in that space.

Finally, also don't underestimate the amount of pain and disruption that China could wreak on the bond market if they wanted to. Particularly if tariffs are affecting other countries. They may turn to China for leadership, binding themselves to China's fight in this trade war.

 

[Chadstroma]

I'm not going to comment directly on the behaviors and psychology of our leadership as that's not within guidelines here. While many of the economic stats you say are true, I think the structure of the 2 societies and the social-political-economic contract are very different. China has a distinct advantage in that space.

Finally, also don't underestimate the amount of pain and disruption that China could wreak on the bond market if they wanted to. Particularly if tariffs are affecting other countries. They may turn to China for leadership, binding themselves to China's fight in this trade war.

We have other levers to pull as well. For example, a large military equipment package sold to Taiwan. Beneficial for us and Taiwan and is something Beijing really doesn't want. There are more. This is a fight we can win and more importantly, unless we want to continue to give up ground to the Chinese, it is a stand we must take. No other politician... of either party... will be willing to do it. It just isn't politically beneficial even as it will benefit the country.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

China thinks in decades. Trump has less than 4 years. China will wait it out.

 

[Instinctive]

Can we get back to Mortgage rates please? Continuing to fall it seems?

 

[Chadstroma]

Can we get back to Mortgage rates please? Continuing to fall it seems?

Worsened from opening today.

 

[Instinctive]

Can we get back to Mortgage rates please? Continuing to fall it seems?

Worsened from opening today.

is worsened lower or higher?

 

[Chadstroma]

Can we get back to Mortgage rates please? Continuing to fall it seems?

Worsened from opening today.

is worsened lower or higher?

I am a mortgage broker... which would you think I would think is worse?

 

[Chadstroma]

China thinks in decades. Trump has less than 4 years. China will wait it out.

No doubt, China is patient while politicians typically have a 4 year span of thinking at the absolute most and really most until the newest polling data comes out. One of the benefits of being an autocratic one party and being "president for life" versus a Republic. This is why this may be our only chance to get a level playing field... or at least an economic level playing field.... with China. It is very hard to imagine any politician, short of war, having the backbone to do this. For me, I would very much like to avoid a war with China this may be the best way peaceful way we can avoid it in the future. I am all in 100% on this.

 

[Chadstroma]

Protests erupt in China after furious workers demand back pay as Trump’s tariffs on imports jolt economy​

Protests from furious factory workers in China demanding back pay are spreading across the country after President Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports began impacting the communist nation’s economy.

Unrest has been reported across the country as workers have taken to the streets protesting unpaid wages and challenging unfair dismissals following the closures of factories squeezed by US tariffs, according to Radio Free Asia.

Chinese industry leaders, meanwhile, are “extremely anxious” about the steep duties, with many telling factories and suppliers to halt or delay supplies, Wang Xin, head of an industry group representing more than 2,000 Chinese merchants told the Financial Times.

At least 16 million jobs across many industries in China are at risk due to President Trump’s imposing of a 145% tariff on Chinese imports, according to analysis from Goldman Sachs.

“It’s not easy at the moment,” a 26-year-old toy factory worker told the FT. His employer, in the Chinese city of Zhejiang, mostly sells to the US, and management recently forced workers to take two weeks off unpaid in the face of the tariffs.

Last month, construction workers threatened to throw themselves off the buildings they were working on unless they received their unpaid wages in the northeastern city of Tongliao, Radio Free Asia reported.

Elsewhere, a sporting goods factory in southern Hunan province also shut without warning last month, offering no compensation or social security benefits, leading hundreds of workers to go on strike, the outlet said.

Protests in China have increased since the COVID pandemic as the country’s economy has struggled to bounce back, Beijing-based activist Ji Feng, who was one of the student leaders during the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests, told Radio Free Asia.

Chinese authorities have acknowledged that the tariffs are impacting the country’s economy.

In April, China’s factory activity showed its steepest contraction in 16 months, while new export orders dropped to their lowest levels in three years since the pandemic.Experts have grown fearful about President Trump’s aggressive tactics, however, the contraction in China’s industrial output and the protests show the president may still have leverage — despite Beijing raising its own duties on imports of US products to as high as 125%.

China’s President Xi Jinping has also traveled to his neighboring countries in Southeast Asia as he looks to forge closer ties with Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia in response.

Simarlarly, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has reached out to his counterparts in the UK and the European Union.

President Trump has insisted things were going “fine with China”but it remains unclear whether any meeting between Trump and Xi will take place.

The president said he had no plans to speak to his Chinese counterpart this week during a conversation with reporters on board Air Force One on Sunday.

“But China and our people are talking about different things,” he added.

As I said before, China is not nearly as sound economically and social/politically as some think. Though protests here means it is Tuesday, protests in China are extremely significant. This goes strongly to back my whole argument in this thread earlier.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Protests erupt in China after furious workers demand back pay as Trump’s tariffs on imports jolt economy​

Protests from furious factory workers in China demanding back pay are spreading across the country after President Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports began impacting the communist nation’s economy.

Unrest has been reported across the country as workers have taken to the streets protesting unpaid wages and challenging unfair dismissals following the closures of factories squeezed by US tariffs, according to Radio Free Asia.

Chinese industry leaders, meanwhile, are “extremely anxious” about the steep duties, with many telling factories and suppliers to halt or delay supplies, Wang Xin, head of an industry group representing more than 2,000 Chinese merchants told the Financial Times.

At least 16 million jobs across many industries in China are at risk due to President Trump’s imposing of a 145% tariff on Chinese imports, according to analysis from Goldman Sachs.

“It’s not easy at the moment,” a 26-year-old toy factory worker told the FT. His employer, in the Chinese city of Zhejiang, mostly sells to the US, and management recently forced workers to take two weeks off unpaid in the face of the tariffs.

Last month, construction workers threatened to throw themselves off the buildings they were working on unless they received their unpaid wages in the northeastern city of Tongliao, Radio Free Asia reported.

Elsewhere, a sporting goods factory in southern Hunan province also shut without warning last month, offering no compensation or social security benefits, leading hundreds of workers to go on strike, the outlet said.

Protests in China have increased since the COVID pandemic as the country’s economy has struggled to bounce back, Beijing-based activist Ji Feng, who was one of the student leaders during the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests, told Radio Free Asia.

Chinese authorities have acknowledged that the tariffs are impacting the country’s economy.

In April, China’s factory activity showed its steepest contraction in 16 months, while new export orders dropped to their lowest levels in three years since the pandemic.Experts have grown fearful about President Trump’s aggressive tactics, however, the contraction in China’s industrial output and the protests show the president may still have leverage — despite Beijing raising its own duties on imports of US products to as high as 125%.

China’s President Xi Jinping has also traveled to his neighboring countries in Southeast Asia as he looks to forge closer ties with Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia in response.

Simarlarly, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has reached out to his counterparts in the UK and the European Union.

President Trump has insisted things were going “fine with China”but it remains unclear whether any meeting between Trump and Xi will take place.

The president said he had no plans to speak to his Chinese counterpart this week during a conversation with reporters on board Air Force One on Sunday.

“But China and our people are talking about different things,” he added.

As I said before, China is not nearly as sound economically and social/politically as some think. Though protests here means it is Tuesday, protests in China are extremely significant. This goes strongly to back my whole argument in this thread earlier.

I agree, that's what makes these situations so tough. China can get pretty good insight into how these things are affecting our economy and our leadership, but we don't have the same kind of insight into theirs. So they may be painting a rosy picture like this is no big deal for them, but really we have no idea if that's true or if it's just propoganda and they're hanging on by a thread.

 

[Chadstroma]

Protests erupt in China after furious workers demand back pay as Trump’s tariffs on imports jolt economy​

Protests from furious factory workers in China demanding back pay are spreading across the country after President Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports began impacting the communist nation’s economy.

Unrest has been reported across the country as workers have taken to the streets protesting unpaid wages and challenging unfair dismissals following the closures of factories squeezed by US tariffs, according to Radio Free Asia.

Chinese industry leaders, meanwhile, are “extremely anxious” about the steep duties, with many telling factories and suppliers to halt or delay supplies, Wang Xin, head of an industry group representing more than 2,000 Chinese merchants told the Financial Times.

At least 16 million jobs across many industries in China are at risk due to President Trump’s imposing of a 145% tariff on Chinese imports, according to analysis from Goldman Sachs.

“It’s not easy at the moment,” a 26-year-old toy factory worker told the FT. His employer, in the Chinese city of Zhejiang, mostly sells to the US, and management recently forced workers to take two weeks off unpaid in the face of the tariffs.

Last month, construction workers threatened to throw themselves off the buildings they were working on unless they received their unpaid wages in the northeastern city of Tongliao, Radio Free Asia reported.

Elsewhere, a sporting goods factory in southern Hunan province also shut without warning last month, offering no compensation or social security benefits, leading hundreds of workers to go on strike, the outlet said.

Protests in China have increased since the COVID pandemic as the country’s economy has struggled to bounce back, Beijing-based activist Ji Feng, who was one of the student leaders during the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests, told Radio Free Asia.

Chinese authorities have acknowledged that the tariffs are impacting the country’s economy.

In April, China’s factory activity showed its steepest contraction in 16 months, while new export orders dropped to their lowest levels in three years since the pandemic.Experts have grown fearful about President Trump’s aggressive tactics, however, the contraction in China’s industrial output and the protests show the president may still have leverage — despite Beijing raising its own duties on imports of US products to as high as 125%.

China’s President Xi Jinping has also traveled to his neighboring countries in Southeast Asia as he looks to forge closer ties with Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia in response.

Simarlarly, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has reached out to his counterparts in the UK and the European Union.

President Trump has insisted things were going “fine with China”but it remains unclear whether any meeting between Trump and Xi will take place.

The president said he had no plans to speak to his Chinese counterpart this week during a conversation with reporters on board Air Force One on Sunday.

“But China and our people are talking about different things,” he added.

As I said before, China is not nearly as sound economically and social/politically as some think. Though protests here means it is Tuesday, protests in China are extremely significant. This goes strongly to back my whole argument in this thread earlier.

I agree, that's what makes these situations so tough. China can get pretty good insight into how these things are affecting our economy and our leadership, but we don't have the same kind of insight into theirs. So they may be painting a rosy picture like this is no big deal for them, but really we have no idea if that's true or if it's just propoganda and they're hanging on by a thread.

China is extremely secretive, manipulative and intent on propaganda. You never really know much about much of their industry because it is known that they hide things and are 'creative' with what they do communicate.

As I said before, they export to us significantly more than we export to them. This article talks about them reaching out to other countries but I think they have screwed themselves on this. Pretty much every bordering country or nearby country to them they have territorial disputes with. Some more 'hot' disputes than others but that along with their long standing bully tactics have most of the pacific rim countries nervous as hell. Even their belt and road initiative is increasingly being seen as negative and just another bully tactic by even countries that have received the help. The Chinese reaching out to the UK and EU is hilarious, as if the Europeans, particularly the Brits, are dumb enough to work with them against US interests.

 

[dkp993]

Pretty much every bordering country or nearby country to them they have territorial disputes with.

Seems we are following in their lead with this.

 

[The Z Machine]

Protests erupt in China after furious workers demand back pay as Trump’s tariffs on imports jolt economy​

Protests from furious factory workers in China demanding back pay are spreading across the country after President Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports began impacting the communist nation’s economy.

Unrest has been reported across the country as workers have taken to the streets protesting unpaid wages and challenging unfair dismissals following the closures of factories squeezed by US tariffs, according to Radio Free Asia.

Chinese industry leaders, meanwhile, are “extremely anxious” about the steep duties, with many telling factories and suppliers to halt or delay supplies, Wang Xin, head of an industry group representing more than 2,000 Chinese merchants told the Financial Times.

At least 16 million jobs across many industries in China are at risk due to President Trump’s imposing of a 145% tariff on Chinese imports, according to analysis from Goldman Sachs.

“It’s not easy at the moment,” a 26-year-old toy factory worker told the FT. His employer, in the Chinese city of Zhejiang, mostly sells to the US, and management recently forced workers to take two weeks off unpaid in the face of the tariffs.

Last month, construction workers threatened to throw themselves off the buildings they were working on unless they received their unpaid wages in the northeastern city of Tongliao, Radio Free Asia reported.

Elsewhere, a sporting goods factory in southern Hunan province also shut without warning last month, offering no compensation or social security benefits, leading hundreds of workers to go on strike, the outlet said.

Protests in China have increased since the COVID pandemic as the country’s economy has struggled to bounce back, Beijing-based activist Ji Feng, who was one of the student leaders during the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests, told Radio Free Asia.

Chinese authorities have acknowledged that the tariffs are impacting the country’s economy.

In April, China’s factory activity showed its steepest contraction in 16 months, while new export orders dropped to their lowest levels in three years since the pandemic.Experts have grown fearful about President Trump’s aggressive tactics, however, the contraction in China’s industrial output and the protests show the president may still have leverage — despite Beijing raising its own duties on imports of US products to as high as 125%.

China’s President Xi Jinping has also traveled to his neighboring countries in Southeast Asia as he looks to forge closer ties with Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia in response.

Simarlarly, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has reached out to his counterparts in the UK and the European Union.

President Trump has insisted things were going “fine with China”but it remains unclear whether any meeting between Trump and Xi will take place.

The president said he had no plans to speak to his Chinese counterpart this week during a conversation with reporters on board Air Force One on Sunday.

“But China and our people are talking about different things,” he added.

As I said before, China is not nearly as sound economically and social/politically as some think. Though protests here means it is Tuesday, protests in China are extremely significant. This goes strongly to back my whole argument in this thread earlier.

I agree, that's what makes these situations so tough. China can get pretty good insight into how these things are affecting our economy and our leadership, but we don't have the same kind of insight into theirs. So they may be painting a rosy picture like this is no big deal for them, but really we have no idea if that's true or if it's just propoganda and they're hanging on by a thread.

China is extremely secretive, manipulative and intent on propaganda. You never really know much about much of their industry because it is known that they hide things and are 'creative' with what they do communicate.

As I said before, they export to us significantly more than we export to them. This article talks about them reaching out to other countries but I think they have screwed themselves on this. Pretty much every bordering country or nearby country to them they have territorial disputes with. Some more 'hot' disputes than others but that along with their long standing bully tactics have most of the pacific rim countries nervous as hell. Even their belt and road initiative is increasingly being seen as negative and just another bully tactic by even countries that have received the help. The Chinese reaching out to the UK and EU is hilarious, as if the Europeans, particularly the Brits, are dumb enough to work with them against US interests.

I think you're wrong on this. Vietnam is using Chinese expertise to move up the supply chain ladder. They are partnering with Beijing to allow Chinese companies to invest in Vietnam, training the Vietnamese workforce, and bringing up the standard of living of Vietnamese people. Sure, they have their disputes, but China is bringing a lot of wealth to their neighbors these days, both in currency and in expertise.

 

[The Z Machine]

Also, lots of Europeans see the US as an unreliable partner and one that might undermine their own democracies. At least they know where Xi stands on those things. And Xi isn't ramping up trade barriers on European economies.

 

[Chadstroma]

I think you're wrong on this. Vietnam is using Chinese expertise to move up the supply chain ladder. They are partnering with Beijing to allow Chinese companies to invest in Vietnam, training the Vietnamese workforce, and bringing up the standard of living of Vietnamese people. Sure, they have their disputes, but China is bringing a lot of wealth to their neighbors these days, both in currency and in expertise.

That paints an overly rosy picture for a very complex and complicated relationship, which is not unlike many in the region with China.

Vietnam and China fought a brief war in 1979 that then transformed into border skirmishes (not unlike what we have seen with India and China recently) up until.... 1990 I think it was. They still have disputes over a couple of island groups though they did sign an agreement to handle disputes peacefully- they still have had conflict between fishing vessels and coast guard which strains relations.

Vietnam has just announced a purchase of F-16V, up to 24, is reportedly considering C-130's and purchased some training aircraft not long ago which represents a dramatic departure from being Russian reliant. It also represents an attempt to straddle a line, much like Malaysia is doing, to not align with either the US or China. It is seen as largely a way to keep trade relationships with both healthy but mostly not to antagonize a China that has shown to be essentially a bully.

The Philippines are trying to bulk up their military aggressively due to Chinese aggression in territorial disputes and represents the other camp of Chinese neighbors who are outright aligned or aligning with the US.

As for Europe, the EU imposed a 125% punitive tariff on top of the existing 20% on Chinese goods just a month ago. This is largely about decoupling from Chinese economy to the West as well as fighting unfair trade practices which is the hallmark of the Chinese economy.