The coming population decline and its implications. (3 Viewers)

[beer 30]

Greece is having all the fun this decade

Those photos make it look really nice

I'm sure it is, there isn't anyone there.

 

[Hot Diggity Dog]

The counterpoint is if a factor of how a society is ordered causes that society to eventually collapse can it be considered good?

Which is a massive assumption.

People shouldn't be taking these theories as facts, if they are going to use them to try and figure out a way to make women want to have babies.

That predisposes that the population decline is a bad thing, which I am not ready to agree with.

Agreed. More importantly, world population is still on the upswing, and this should continue for at least the next century or so. A graph

This graph is from 2015. A lot of Data has changed and of course that is pre covid. Most current population models look like a peak in global population peaking in 2050.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

As a life long Californian, there would still be plenty of space. Cali is HUGE and mostly empty.

But what would they drink?

Some kind of smoothie...

 

[Terminalxylem]

The counterpoint is if a factor of how a society is ordered causes that society to eventually collapse can it be considered good?

Which is a massive assumption.

People shouldn't be taking these theories as facts, if they are going to use them to try and figure out a way to make women want to have babies.

That predisposes that the population decline is a bad thing, which I am not ready to agree with.

Agreed. More importantly, world population is still on the upswing, and this should continue for at least the next century or so. A graph

This graph is from 2015. A lot of Data has changed and of course that is pre covid. Most current population models look like a peak in global population peaking in 2050.

I see a source claiming 2050, but that doesn’t appear to be the consensus. The UN’s 2022 estimate has world population peaking around 10 billion in the 2080s, for example. How have you determined what “most” models are predicting?

FTR, I think we’ll figure something out, regardless of the date population peaks/declines. An argument can be made there are too many people already. Also old, but interesting commentary on the earth’s human “carrying capacity”. The most common answer: 8 billion.

 

[Redwes25]

We need more immigration into this country to support economic growth but of course this fact is entirely lost in the current discussions of immigration.

 

[rockaction]

We need more immigration into this country to support economic growth but of course this fact is entirely lost in the current discussions of immigration.

It's not lost in the least. That's the main argument from pro-immigration sides. The counter is sensationalistic, but it takes growth into account. That's why the other side supports skilled immigration rather than what we've been doing.

 

[the moops]

That's why the other side supports skilled immigration rather than what we've been doing.

Do we really need skilled immigration though? I mean, yes of course get the best and brightest here if possible. But we would still do OK with using mainly the skills of people from this country. Not as well, but we are smart as ****. We need workers, unskilled and otherwise

 

[rockaction]

Do we really need skilled immigration though? I mean, yes of course get the best and brightest here if possible. But we would still do OK with using mainly the skills of people from this country.

I take your point but any further discussion would get political. I can only shrug. I was just saying the other side has taken the productivity and birth dearth aspect into account. Back when I worked for the side most known for anti-immigration, they were also writing books on the birth dearth and productivity. The sides aren’t dumb—they just shapeshift in weird ways.

 

[massraider]

Do we really need skilled immigration though? I mean, yes of course get the best and brightest here if possible. But we would still do OK with using mainly the skills of people from this country.

I take your point but any further discussion would get political. I can only shrug. I was just saying the other side has taken the productivity and birth dearth aspect into account. Back when I worked for the side most known for anti-immigration, they were also writing books on the birth dearth and productivity. The sides aren’t dumb—they just shapeshift in weird ways.

Taking politics out of it: Let's assume immigration is seriously curtailed, or dries up.
I was wondering if anyone was aware of any non-immigration solution.

I can think of three industries off the top of my head (construction, food service, and agriculture) and I am sure there are several more, where the lowest paid rung on the ladder is hard to fill. Americans do not collectively want their kids doing those jobs. That seems bipartisan to me.

Not a gotcha question, like I am trying to catch someone without a backup plan. Wondering if anyone had seen/heard a plan to fill the low paid, physically demanding jobs.

 

[The Z Machine]

Wondering if anyone had seen/heard a plan to fill the low paid, physically demanding jobs.

The only "plans" that can occur here are 1) raise the pay scale, increasing the input costs for many items. This is the way it is in other developed countries. Commodity food and restaurants can be very expensive. 2) Bring in automation to reduce the labor demand. Robotic fruit picking, sorting, packing. Robotic brick laying, concrete pouring, drywall sanding. Sure lots of trades will still require human hands, but the lower skilled jobs could be automated to reduce costs.

 

[beer 30]

Wondering if anyone had seen/heard a plan to fill the low paid, physically demanding jobs.

The only "plans" that can occur here are 1) raise the pay scale, increasing the input costs for many items. This is the way it is in other developed countries. Commodity food and restaurants can be very expensive. 2) Bring in automation to reduce the labor demand. Robotic fruit picking, sorting, packing. Robotic brick laying, concrete pouring, drywall sanding. Sure lots of trades will still require human hands, but the lower skilled jobs could be automated to reduce costs.

Pay needs to increase, across the board but certainly at the bottom end of the scale. It seems heinous to me the amount of profit generated over the last 5 years and how little has trickled down. I'll stop there because I used one of those special words.

In regards to automation, it kind of flies in the face of bringing in folks to do the work if we just figure out how to do it robotically, then we've just managed to produce another mouth to feed with no payoff. The folks mowing your lawns and roofing your house and building your buildings provide a service. You start automating those services and we just have a lot of folks sitting around wondering how they can get a bigger piece of the pie. That applies to a lot of folks already here as well. Automation is cool but it's also going to upend the workforce. If we keep just letting folks in with no discernable talent to bring to the table, we're just going to keep putting up man camps to house all these folks with no real path forward.

 

[parasaurolophus]

Taking politics out of it: Let's assume immigration is seriously curtailed, or dries up.
I was wondering if anyone was aware of any non-immigration solution.

I can think of three industries off the top of my head (construction, food service, and agriculture) and I am sure there are several more, where the lowest paid rung on the ladder is hard to fill. Americans do not collectively want their kids doing those jobs. That seems bipartisan to me.

Not a gotcha question, like I am trying to catch someone without a backup plan. Wondering if anyone had seen/heard a plan to fill the low paid, physically demanding jobs.

Once americans bit by bit start realizing how liberating having a low maintenance yard is(either in the pocketbook or their own time) that will free up a lot of workers. Probably will take forced small engine bans, but honestly i couldnt be happier with my low maintenance landscaping and I was very against some of the rules places were passing. I was so dumb about my yard before.

We can also just straight cut a ton of agriculture jobs and be better off for it. We do some really dumb things in this country in this area.

I also dont think people realize how much the construction industry becomes a self replicating machine. Construction begets construction. And nothing damages our roadways like heavy duty construction vehicles do.

Not to mention drainage and flooding issues that are just nonstop self owns.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Taking politics out of it: Let's assume immigration is seriously curtailed, or dries up.
I was wondering if anyone was aware of any non-immigration solution.

I can think of three industries off the top of my head (construction, food service, and agriculture) and I am sure there are several more, where the lowest paid rung on the ladder is hard to fill. Americans do not collectively want their kids doing those jobs. That seems bipartisan to me.

Not a gotcha question, like I am trying to catch someone without a backup plan. Wondering if anyone had seen/heard a plan to fill the low paid, physically demanding jobs.

Once americans bit by bit start realizing how liberating having a low maintenance yard is(either in the pocketbook or their own time) that will free up a lot of workers. Probably will take forced small engine bans, but honestly i couldnt be happier with my low maintenance landscaping and I was very against some of the rules places were passing. I was so dumb about my yard before.

We can also just straight cut a ton of agriculture jobs and be better off for it. We do some really dumb things in this country in this area.

I also dont think people realize how much the construction industry becomes a self replicating machine. Construction begets construction. And nothing damages our roadways like heavy duty construction vehicles do.

Not to mention drainage and flooding issues that are just nonstop self owns.

Which do you think is more likely: that a huge number of farmers are paying a bunch of workers unnecessarily out of their own pockets, or that you're misunderstanding something about agricultural production?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Wondering if anyone had seen/heard a plan to fill the low paid, physically demanding jobs.

The only "plans" that can occur here are 1) raise the pay scale, increasing the input costs for many items. This is the way it is in other developed countries. Commodity food and restaurants can be very expensive. 2) Bring in automation to reduce the labor demand. Robotic fruit picking, sorting, packing. Robotic brick laying, concrete pouring, drywall sanding. Sure lots of trades will still require human hands, but the lower skilled jobs could be automated to reduce costs.

I just got back from Europe. Restaurants were not any more expensive than here, really. That is while using fresher/better ingredients, paying their workers a living wage, and not requiring tips on top of the meal price.

This goes back to the "are we doing it right?" thread. It's just a different mindset. In Europe most people with a successful business just want to make enough money to live a decent modest life with good work/life balance. Here as soon as someone creates a successful business, the first question is "how can we extract even more profit out of this and make it even bigger and more lucrative"? Profit this quarter has to be more than last quarter, and certainly can never go down.

This trickles down to everything. Not just the restaurant owners themselves, but probably even more importantly the suppliers of those restaurants. I've said this before in here but I don't know how it is back east, but out here in the west (I'm in Utah specifically, but see the same when driving around other western states) most farms are accompanied by giant $4+ million dollar mansions. And once those profit margins are up, they're not going to let them go back down. So if those mansions have been built on the backs on underpaid immigrant labor it's not like they're suddenly going to decide to pay a living wage to non-immigrant workers and downsize their lifestyle.

I would guess the same is true for every aspect of these businesses beyond just the food ingredients themselves.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Wondering if anyone had seen/heard a plan to fill the low paid, physically demanding jobs.

The only "plans" that can occur here are 1) raise the pay scale, increasing the input costs for many items. This is the way it is in other developed countries. Commodity food and restaurants can be very expensive. 2) Bring in automation to reduce the labor demand. Robotic fruit picking, sorting, packing. Robotic brick laying, concrete pouring, drywall sanding. Sure lots of trades will still require human hands, but the lower skilled jobs could be automated to reduce costs.

I just got back from Europe. Restaurants were not any more expensive than here, really. That is while using fresher/better ingredients, paying their workers a living wage, and not requiring tips on top of the meal price.

This goes back to the "are we doing it right?" thread. It's just a different mindset. In Europe most people with a successful business just want to make enough money to live a decent modest life with good work/life balance. Here as soon as someone creates a successful business, the first question is "how can we extract even more profit out of this and make it even bigger and more lucrative"? Profit this quarter has to be more than last quarter, and certainly can never go down.

This trickles down to everything. Not just the restaurant owners themselves, but probably even more importantly the suppliers of those restaurants. I've said this before in here but I don't know how it is back east, but out here in the west (I'm in Utah specifically, but see the same when driving around other western states) most farms are accompanied by giant $4+ million dollar mansions. And once those profit margins are up, they're not going to let them go back down. So if those mansions have been built on the backs on underpaid immigrant labor it's not like they're suddenly going to decide to pay a living wage to non-immigrant workers and downsize their lifestyle.

I would guess the same is true for every aspect of these businesses beyond just the food ingredients themselves.

Restaurants are not especially profitable -- they famously fail at extremely high rates. Most restaurant owners in the US are doing exactly what you describe: making enough money to live a decent life. That's if they're successful, which they usually aren't.

Want to know why restaurant meals are relatively inexpensive in Europe? Europe is poor, and everything is cheap in poor countries when Americans come to visit. That's all it is: living standards and exchange rates.

 

[the moops]

Wondering if anyone had seen/heard a plan to fill the low paid, physically demanding jobs.

The only "plans" that can occur here are 1) raise the pay scale, increasing the input costs for many items. This is the way it is in other developed countries. Commodity food and restaurants can be very expensive. 2) Bring in automation to reduce the labor demand. Robotic fruit picking, sorting, packing. Robotic brick laying, concrete pouring, drywall sanding. Sure lots of trades will still require human hands, but the lower skilled jobs could be automated to reduce costs.

I just got back from Europe. Restaurants were not any more expensive than here, really. That is while using fresher/better ingredients, paying their workers a living wage, and not requiring tips on top of the meal price.

This goes back to the "are we doing it right?" thread. It's just a different mindset. In Europe most people with a successful business just want to make enough money to live a decent modest life with good work/life balance. Here as soon as someone creates a successful business, the first question is "how can we extract even more profit out of this and make it even bigger and more lucrative"? Profit this quarter has to be more than last quarter, and certainly can never go down.

This trickles down to everything. Not just the restaurant owners themselves, but probably even more importantly the suppliers of those restaurants. I've said this before in here but I don't know how it is back east, but out here in the west (I'm in Utah specifically, but see the same when driving around other western states) most farms are accompanied by giant $4+ million dollar mansions. And once those profit margins are up, they're not going to let them go back down. So if those mansions have been built on the backs on underpaid immigrant labor it's not like they're suddenly going to decide to pay a living wage to non-immigrant workers and downsize their lifestyle.

I would guess the same is true for every aspect of these businesses beyond just the food ingredients themselves.

Restaurants are not especially profitable -- they famously fail at extremely high rates. Most restaurant owners in the US are doing exactly what you describe: making enough money to live a decent life. That's if they're successful, which they usually aren't.

Want to know why restaurant meals are relatively inexpensive in Europe? Europe is poor, and everything is cheap in poor countries when Americans come to visit. That's all it is: living standards and exchange rates.

I think it is really hard to just lump all of Europe into one giant category. Plenty of poor, but plenty of wealth.

 

[The Z Machine]

I just got back from Europe. Restaurants were not any more expensive than here, really.

Depends on where you are. Food and restaurants here in Switzerland are definitely more expensive than in the USA. Maybe comparing Geneva to NYC, they are on par, but prices don't drop a bunch when you leave Geneva unless you go to France. Unlike leaving NYC and going to PA.

 

[dkp993]

Wondering if anyone had seen/heard a plan to fill the low paid, physically demanding jobs.

The only "plans" that can occur here are 1) raise the pay scale, increasing the input costs for many items. This is the way it is in other developed countries. Commodity food and restaurants can be very expensive. 2) Bring in automation to reduce the labor demand. Robotic fruit picking, sorting, packing. Robotic brick laying, concrete pouring, drywall sanding. Sure lots of trades will still require human hands, but the lower skilled jobs could be automated to reduce costs.

I just got back from Europe. Restaurants were not any more expensive than here, really. That is while using fresher/better ingredients, paying their workers a living wage, and not requiring tips on top of the meal price.

This goes back to the "are we doing it right?" thread. It's just a different mindset. In Europe most people with a successful business just want to make enough money to live a decent modest life with good work/life balance. Here as soon as someone creates a successful business, the first question is "how can we extract even more profit out of this and make it even bigger and more lucrative"? Profit this quarter has to be more than last quarter, and certainly can never go down.

This trickles down to everything. Not just the restaurant owners themselves, but probably even more importantly the suppliers of those restaurants. I've said this before in here but I don't know how it is back east, but out here in the west (I'm in Utah specifically, but see the same when driving around other western states) most farms are accompanied by giant $4+ million dollar mansions. And once those profit margins are up, they're not going to let them go back down. So if those mansions have been built on the backs on underpaid immigrant labor it's not like they're suddenly going to decide to pay a living wage to non-immigrant workers and downsize their lifestyle.

I would guess the same is true for every aspect of these businesses beyond just the food ingredients themselves.

Restaurants are not especially profitable -- they famously fail at extremely high rates. Most restaurant owners in the US are doing exactly what you describe: making enough money to live a decent life. That's if they're successful, which they usually aren't.

Want to know why restaurant meals are relatively inexpensive in Europe? Europe is poor, and everything is cheap in poor countries when Americans come to visit. That's all it is: living standards and exchange rates.

This.

As a lifelong restaurateur and former owner. It’s one of the most misunderstood businesses in the country.

There are also long debated threads here on this topic.

 

[parasaurolophus]

Taking politics out of it: Let's assume immigration is seriously curtailed, or dries up.
I was wondering if anyone was aware of any non-immigration solution.

I can think of three industries off the top of my head (construction, food service, and agriculture) and I am sure there are several more, where the lowest paid rung on the ladder is hard to fill. Americans do not collectively want their kids doing those jobs. That seems bipartisan to me.

Not a gotcha question, like I am trying to catch someone without a backup plan. Wondering if anyone had seen/heard a plan to fill the low paid, physically demanding jobs.

Once americans bit by bit start realizing how liberating having a low maintenance yard is(either in the pocketbook or their own time) that will free up a lot of workers. Probably will take forced small engine bans, but honestly i couldnt be happier with my low maintenance landscaping and I was very against some of the rules places were passing. I was so dumb about my yard before.

We can also just straight cut a ton of agriculture jobs and be better off for it. We do some really dumb things in this country in this area.

I also dont think people realize how much the construction industry becomes a self replicating machine. Construction begets construction. And nothing damages our roadways like heavy duty construction vehicles do.

Not to mention drainage and flooding issues that are just nonstop self owns.

Which do you think is more likely: that a huge number of farmers are paying a bunch of workers unnecessarily out of their own pockets, or that you're misunderstanding something about agricultural production?

Or a third option and i wasnt talking about on a level of an individual farmer managing their individual farm with their resource allotment.

It is hard to get into too many specifics in here without stepping on a landmine, but lets just say farming isnt exactly a free market economy.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Wondering if anyone had seen/heard a plan to fill the low paid, physically demanding jobs.

The only "plans" that can occur here are 1) raise the pay scale, increasing the input costs for many items. This is the way it is in other developed countries. Commodity food and restaurants can be very expensive. 2) Bring in automation to reduce the labor demand. Robotic fruit picking, sorting, packing. Robotic brick laying, concrete pouring, drywall sanding. Sure lots of trades will still require human hands, but the lower skilled jobs could be automated to reduce costs.

I just got back from Europe. Restaurants were not any more expensive than here, really. That is while using fresher/better ingredients, paying their workers a living wage, and not requiring tips on top of the meal price.

This goes back to the "are we doing it right?" thread. It's just a different mindset. In Europe most people with a successful business just want to make enough money to live a decent modest life with good work/life balance. Here as soon as someone creates a successful business, the first question is "how can we extract even more profit out of this and make it even bigger and more lucrative"? Profit this quarter has to be more than last quarter, and certainly can never go down.

This trickles down to everything. Not just the restaurant owners themselves, but probably even more importantly the suppliers of those restaurants. I've said this before in here but I don't know how it is back east, but out here in the west (I'm in Utah specifically, but see the same when driving around other western states) most farms are accompanied by giant $4+ million dollar mansions. And once those profit margins are up, they're not going to let them go back down. So if those mansions have been built on the backs on underpaid immigrant labor it's not like they're suddenly going to decide to pay a living wage to non-immigrant workers and downsize their lifestyle.

I would guess the same is true for every aspect of these businesses beyond just the food ingredients themselves.

Restaurants are not especially profitable -- they famously fail at extremely high rates. Most restaurant owners in the US are doing exactly what you describe: making enough money to live a decent life. That's if they're successful, which they usually aren't.

Want to know why restaurant meals are relatively inexpensive in Europe? Europe is poor, and everything is cheap in poor countries when Americans come to visit. That's all it is: living standards and exchange rates.

Sorry if I wasn't clear, I was more referring to the suppliers (ingredients etc) in this case.

I am obviously way outside of my depth here and could be totally off, but it's not lost on me that I can't spit out here without hitting a farm with a multi million dollar mansion and a boat and two jetskis and a $120k truck to tow it all. I'm guessing our restauranteers are paying more for crappier ingredients than in Europe where they get better stuff for less.

Another thing that I think holds restaurants back here is that they have to compete against profit driven chains like Darden, etc that aren't really an issue in most European cities.

Coffee shops are a really easy one to look at. Every block in most European cities has 5 coffee shops. Some are closed on Wednesdays, some on Tuesdays, some are closed from 3-7pm, some are closed from 11am-3pm, etc. All the coffee shop owners are just regular people living modest lives and balancing their personal life, and there are enough customers for all of them to survive, live a decent life, and pay their employees decently (so they can live a decent life) because no one coffee shop tries to become a billion dollar company that drives all the rest out of business.

I get the impression from the sheer number of them and general chillness of the people inside (which often include the owner) that opening a little cafe/coffee shop in Europe is a fairly low-stress way to live a decent life. I could be totally wrong.

But try to open a coffee shop in the US and have a reasonable work-life balance with limited hours and Starbucks and their minimum wage employees are going to drive you out of business in a week.

 

[parasaurolophus]

@IvanKaramazov i think i can post this Story because the whole thing is now over and done with and i dont think anybody would argue in favor of the deal that occurred there. Extreme example I realize, but trying to not make this offensive to anybody.

 

[Hot Diggity Dog]

The counterpoint is if a factor of how a society is ordered causes that society to eventually collapse can it be considered good?

Which is a massive assumption.

People shouldn't be taking these theories as facts, if they are going to use them to try and figure out a way to make women want to have babies.

That predisposes that the population decline is a bad thing, which I am not ready to agree with.

Agreed. More importantly, world population is still on the upswing, and this should continue for at least the next century or so. A graph

This graph is from 2015. A lot of Data has changed and of course that is pre covid. Most current population models look like a peak in global population peaking in 2050.

I see a source claiming 2050, but that doesn’t appear to be the consensus. The UN’s 2022 estimate has world population peaking around 10 billion in the 2080s, for example. How have you determined what “most” models are predicting?

FTR, I think we’ll figure something out, regardless of the date population peaks/declines. An argument can be made there are too many people already. Also old, but interesting commentary on the earth’s human “carrying capacity”. The most common answer: 8 billion.

Sorry I wasn't clear here with my comment. I was trying to say that the population of the industrialized world which is most of the Northern Hemisphere well be in decline by the 2050s. Areas that are growing will depend greatly on how fast they industrialize, which given the drive in areas where the population is booming like sub-Saharan Africa who knows. It seems unlikely to me that countries like Nigeria can maintain a growth rate of 6 children per woman for the next 50 years to support the global population growth.

 

[Hot Diggity Dog]

Do we really need skilled immigration though? I mean, yes of course get the best and brightest here if possible. But we would still do OK with using mainly the skills of people from this country.

I take your point but any further discussion would get political. I can only shrug. I was just saying the other side has taken the productivity and birth dearth aspect into account. Back when I worked for the side most known for anti-immigration, they were also writing books on the birth dearth and productivity. The sides aren’t dumb—they just shapeshift in weird ways.

Taking politics out of it: Let's assume immigration is seriously curtailed, or dries up.
I was wondering if anyone was aware of any non-immigration solution.

I can think of three industries off the top of my head (construction, food service, and agriculture) and I am sure there are several more, where the lowest paid rung on the ladder is hard to fill. Americans do not collectively want their kids doing those jobs. That seems bipartisan to me.

Not a gotcha question, like I am trying to catch someone without a backup plan. Wondering if anyone had seen/heard a plan to fill the low paid, physically demanding jobs.

The basic answer is if you limit the labor pool by stopping immigration the price you have to pay for that labor will go up and it will become more attractive to more people. I have been in construction as a plumber since 1993 and owned my business since 2001. There has never been a better time to become a tradesman than now. I think the word is slowly getting out to the younger generation of men that the trades are a viable option. No school debt and get paid while you get trained with the option of opening a business or being able to do side jobs for yourself in 3 to 5 years is a much better deal than college for a lot of people, even if they don't realize it yet.

 

[massraider]

The basic answer is if you limit the labor pool by stopping immigration the price you have to pay for that labor will go up and it will become more attractive to more people. I have been in construction as a plumber since 1993 and owned my business since 1993. There has never been a better time to become a tradesman than now. I think the word is slowly getting out to the younger generation of men that the trades are a viable option. No school debt and get paid while you get trained with the option of opening a business or being able to do side jobs for yourself in 3 to 5 years is a much better deal than college for a lot of people, even if they don't realize it yet.

I'm not wondering where plumbers and electricians are coming from. I asked about the lowest paid rung on the ladder.

I'm wondering where dishwashers and fruit pickers and housekeepers and farm labor are coming from.

 

[MAC_32]

I think the word is slowly getting out to the younger generation of men that the trades are a viable option.

It very much has, expect to see impacts in the labor market sooner vs later.

 

[BlackCrowes]

I think the word is slowly getting out to the younger generation of men that the trades are a viable option.

It very much has, expect to see impacts in the labor market sooner vs later.

I've been telling every 17-25 year old i know this exact thing. they seem...skeptical.

 

[MAC_32]

I think the word is slowly getting out to the younger generation of men that the trades are a viable option.

It very much has, expect to see impacts in the labor market sooner vs later.

I've been telling every 17-25 year old i know this exact thing. they seem...skeptical.

Anecdotally, from what I've observed, many don't want to, but they're treating that seed planting as something to consider if whatever their plan A goes belly up. I think a part of it is many of their parents (hi) lack handyman skills, in turn they do too, so they're not confident in their abilities to do the job. I think this will change relatively quickly as while the necessary tools are specialized, they can be learned.

 

[TripItUp]

As we continually destroy the earth and it's ecosystems in large part due to population growth...I don't have a problem with population decline.

There is only one planet(maybe two) that is inhabitable in the universe that we know of....destroying earth isn't the right move.

We will figure out the economic side of population decline...not worried about that. Significantly more concerned with what we are doing to the planet.

 

[dgreen]

Do we really need skilled immigration though? I mean, yes of course get the best and brightest here if possible. But we would still do OK with using mainly the skills of people from this country.

I take your point but any further discussion would get political. I can only shrug. I was just saying the other side has taken the productivity and birth dearth aspect into account. Back when I worked for the side most known for anti-immigration, they were also writing books on the birth dearth and productivity. The sides aren’t dumb—they just shapeshift in weird ways.

Taking politics out of it: Let's assume immigration is seriously curtailed, or dries up.
I was wondering if anyone was aware of any non-immigration solution.

I can think of three industries off the top of my head (construction, food service, and agriculture) and I am sure there are several more, where the lowest paid rung on the ladder is hard to fill. Americans do not collectively want their kids doing those jobs. That seems bipartisan to me.

Not a gotcha question, like I am trying to catch someone without a backup plan. Wondering if anyone had seen/heard a plan to fill the low paid, physically demanding jobs.

The basic answer is if you limit the labor pool by stopping immigration the price you have to pay for that labor will go up and it will become more attractive to more people. I have been in construction as a plumber since 1993 and owned my business since 2001. There has never been a better time to become a tradesman than now. I think the word is slowly getting out to the younger generation of men that the trades are a viable option. No school debt and get paid while you get trained with the option of opening a business or being able to do side jobs for yourself in 3 to 5 years is a much better deal than college for a lot of people, even if they don't realize it yet.

What are the retirement options for these jobs? Do most tradesmen have employer 401Ks?

 

[Hot Diggity Dog]

Do we really need skilled immigration though? I mean, yes of course get the best and brightest here if possible. But we would still do OK with using mainly the skills of people from this country.

I take your point but any further discussion would get political. I can only shrug. I was just saying the other side has taken the productivity and birth dearth aspect into account. Back when I worked for the side most known for anti-immigration, they were also writing books on the birth dearth and productivity. The sides aren’t dumb—they just shapeshift in weird ways.

Taking politics out of it: Let's assume immigration is seriously curtailed, or dries up.
I was wondering if anyone was aware of any non-immigration solution.

I can think of three industries off the top of my head (construction, food service, and agriculture) and I am sure there are several more, where the lowest paid rung on the ladder is hard to fill. Americans do not collectively want their kids doing those jobs. That seems bipartisan to me.

Not a gotcha question, like I am trying to catch someone without a backup plan. Wondering if anyone had seen/heard a plan to fill the low paid, physically demanding jobs.

The basic answer is if you limit the labor pool by stopping immigration the price you have to pay for that labor will go up and it will become more attractive to more people. I have been in construction as a plumber since 1993 and owned my business since 2001. There has never been a better time to become a tradesman than now. I think the word is slowly getting out to the younger generation of men that the trades are a viable option. No school debt and get paid while you get trained with the option of opening a business or being able to do side jobs for yourself in 3 to 5 years is a much better deal than college for a lot of people, even if they don't realize it yet.

What are the retirement options for these jobs? Do most tradesmen have employer 401Ks?

Honestly, I can't say what a percentage is or if most do. I offer a SEP for our employees. Most ads I see for jobs in plumbing have a 401k as a benefit listed. But my guess would be anecdotal.

 

[The Z Machine]

Do we really need skilled immigration though? I mean, yes of course get the best and brightest here if possible. But we would still do OK with using mainly the skills of people from this country.

I take your point but any further discussion would get political. I can only shrug. I was just saying the other side has taken the productivity and birth dearth aspect into account. Back when I worked for the side most known for anti-immigration, they were also writing books on the birth dearth and productivity. The sides aren’t dumb—they just shapeshift in weird ways.

Taking politics out of it: Let's assume immigration is seriously curtailed, or dries up.
I was wondering if anyone was aware of any non-immigration solution.

I can think of three industries off the top of my head (construction, food service, and agriculture) and I am sure there are several more, where the lowest paid rung on the ladder is hard to fill. Americans do not collectively want their kids doing those jobs. That seems bipartisan to me.

Not a gotcha question, like I am trying to catch someone without a backup plan. Wondering if anyone had seen/heard a plan to fill the low paid, physically demanding jobs.

The basic answer is if you limit the labor pool by stopping immigration the price you have to pay for that labor will go up and it will become more attractive to more people. I have been in construction as a plumber since 1993 and owned my business since 2001. There has never been a better time to become a tradesman than now. I think the word is slowly getting out to the younger generation of men that the trades are a viable option. No school debt and get paid while you get trained with the option of opening a business or being able to do side jobs for yourself in 3 to 5 years is a much better deal than college for a lot of people, even if they don't realize it yet.

What are the retirement options for these jobs? Do most tradesmen have employer 401Ks?

I think it depends on the size of the company. A single tradesperson hanging out their own shingle is running a small biz. Same as a lawyer, so they'll have to self-fund retirement. A large, commercial focused firm that does electrical work? They probably have a 401k, as they might have hundreds of employees, not all of which are pulling THHN through conduit.

 

[Hot Diggity Dog]

The basic answer is if you limit the labor pool by stopping immigration the price you have to pay for that labor will go up and it will become more attractive to more people. I have been in construction as a plumber since 1993 and owned my business since 1993. There has never been a better time to become a tradesman than now. I think the word is slowly getting out to the younger generation of men that the trades are a viable option. No school debt and get paid while you get trained with the option of opening a business or being able to do side jobs for yourself in 3 to 5 years is a much better deal than college for a lot of people, even if they don't realize it yet.

I'm not wondering where plumbers and electricians are coming from. I asked about the lowest paid rung on the ladder.

I'm wondering where dishwashers and fruit pickers and housekeepers and farm labor are coming from.

Your post I quoted did mention construction jobs, so I answered on a front I know about. But the concept is the same. More pay equals more applicants.

 

[CGRdrJoe]

Do we really need skilled immigration though? I mean, yes of course get the best and brightest here if possible. But we would still do OK with using mainly the skills of people from this country.

I take your point but any further discussion would get political. I can only shrug. I was just saying the other side has taken the productivity and birth dearth aspect into account. Back when I worked for the side most known for anti-immigration, they were also writing books on the birth dearth and productivity. The sides aren’t dumb—they just shapeshift in weird ways.

Taking politics out of it: Let's assume immigration is seriously curtailed, or dries up.
I was wondering if anyone was aware of any non-immigration solution.

I can think of three industries off the top of my head (construction, food service, and agriculture) and I am sure there are several more, where the lowest paid rung on the ladder is hard to fill. Americans do not collectively want their kids doing those jobs. That seems bipartisan to me.

Not a gotcha question, like I am trying to catch someone without a backup plan. Wondering if anyone had seen/heard a plan to fill the low paid, physically demanding jobs.

The basic answer is if you limit the labor pool by stopping immigration the price you have to pay for that labor will go up and it will become more attractive to more people. I have been in construction as a plumber since 1993 and owned my business since 2001. There has never been a better time to become a tradesman than now. I think the word is slowly getting out to the younger generation of men that the trades are a viable option. No school debt and get paid while you get trained with the option of opening a business or being able to do side jobs for yourself in 3 to 5 years is a much better deal than college for a lot of people, even if they don't realize it yet.

What are the retirement options for these jobs? Do most tradesmen have employer 401Ks?

depends if they are union or not, otherwise they work til they've put enough money away or can live off savings and social security.

 

[Hot Diggity Dog]

I think the word is slowly getting out to the younger generation of men that the trades are a viable option.

It very much has, expect to see impacts in the labor market sooner vs later.

I've been telling every 17-25 year old i know this exact thing. they seem...skeptical.

Anecdotally, from what I've observed, many don't want to, but they're treating that seed planting as something to consider if whatever their plan A goes belly up. I think a part of it is many of their parents (hi) lack handyman skills, in turn they do too, so they're not confident in their abilities to do the job. I think this will change relatively quickly as while the necessary tools are specialized, they can be learned.

Again, anecdotally I see lots of young guys for electricians. Plumbing is a harder sell because of the whole human and food waste thing. Although if you do new construction, it is a rare problem. Remodeling can get ugly. Drain cleaning is a totally different thing, at least here in Colorado.

 

[bagger]

Population declines are better for the human species surviving in general. Not sure why this is bad, especially when you layer in productivity gains with AI as it stands there’s a lot of people who won’t have a purpose in 100 years so may as well cut the population down.

 

[JAA]

I think the word is slowly getting out to the younger generation of men that the trades are a viable option.

It very much has, expect to see impacts in the labor market sooner vs later.

I've been telling every 17-25 year old i know this exact thing. they seem...skeptical.

Anecdotally, from what I've observed, many don't want to, but they're treating that seed planting as something to consider if whatever their plan A goes belly up. I think a part of it is many of their parents (hi) lack handyman skills, in turn they do too, so they're not confident in their abilities to do the job. I think this will change relatively quickly as while the necessary tools are specialized, they can be learned.

My observation is GenZ will have a day of reckoning with jobs. They clearly want an easy cush job because it looks like their parents have one. However, their parents still have that job and they arent opening more of those exact jobs. Thus they will need to find their own jobs.

 

[ChiefD]

I think the word is slowly getting out to the younger generation of men that the trades are a viable option.

It very much has, expect to see impacts in the labor market sooner vs later.

I've been telling every 17-25 year old i know this exact thing. they seem...skeptical.

My 17 year old son is going the trade route. The high school here in Wisconsin has an apprenticeship program where you can have a local tradesman sponsor you. So starting next fall he will go to school til around noon or so and then go work the trade in the afternoons.

And he'll get paid by the sponsoring company. He already has an electrician lined up for this.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

The basic answer is if you limit the labor pool by stopping immigration the price you have to pay for that labor will go up and it will become more attractive to more people. I have been in construction as a plumber since 1993 and owned my business since 1993. There has never been a better time to become a tradesman than now. I think the word is slowly getting out to the younger generation of men that the trades are a viable option. No school debt and get paid while you get trained with the option of opening a business or being able to do side jobs for yourself in 3 to 5 years is a much better deal than college for a lot of people, even if they don't realize it yet.

I'm not wondering where plumbers and electricians are coming from. I asked about the lowest paid rung on the ladder.

I'm wondering where dishwashers and fruit pickers and housekeepers and farm labor are coming from.

In SoCal the majority of them come from Central America. Been in restaurants forever. 99% of the back of the house in my current restaurant is Latino. 1 guy from South Africa. Majority are Mexican. And it’s been that way my entire career.

more and more Latinos are making their way into the front of house. Most are second generation, but the average American might think they are illegal aliens.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I think the word is slowly getting out to the younger generation of men that the trades are a viable option.

It very much has, expect to see impacts in the labor market sooner vs later.

I've been telling every 17-25 year old i know this exact thing. they seem...skeptical.

My 17 year old son is going the trade route. The high school here in Wisconsin has an apprenticeship program where you can have a local tradesman sponsor you. So starting next fall he will go to school til around noon or so and then go work the trade in the afternoons.

And he'll get paid by the sponsoring company. He already has an electrician lined up for this.

Chief, that’s awesome. I wouldn’t be shocked if my daughter goes this route. Strongly encouraging it, but she has to find her own path……

 

[MAC_32]

My observation is GenZ will have a day of reckoning with jobs. They clearly want an easy cush job because it looks like their parents have one. However, their parents still have that job and they arent opening more of those exact jobs. Thus they will need to find their own jobs.

Early gen Z's? Yep, agreed. Later? Oh, no. The parents of those born after the mid aughts give or take have mostly been railroaded their entire career. The oldest of those might just now be getting to their 20's, which is why I don't think it's reflected in the market yet. We're gonna start seeing a lot of cases like what @ChiefD described with older gen Z's as they come down the pipeline, pun unintended.

 

[massraider]

more and more Latinos are making their way into the front of house. Most are second generation, but the average American might think they are illegal aliens.

And that's Mexicans/Colombians/Argentinians, right? If you want the hardest working ones, you need to go to even poorer countries. Guatemala, Ecuador. El Salvador.

But we are going to fill all these jobs currently done by illegals for $10/hr with young American workers?

LOL, no we aren't.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

more and more Latinos are making their way into the front of house. Most are second generation, but the average American might think they are illegal aliens.

And that's Mexicans/Colombians/Argentinians, right? If you want the hardest working ones, you need to go to even poorer countries. Guatemala, Ecuador. El Salvador.

But we are going to fill all these jobs currently done by illegals for $10/hr with young American workers?

LOL, no we aren't.

Most are Mexican. But nearly all of Central America is represented. Very few South Americans. They all work hard, some would say harder than your average American. And they are for sure willing to do work, with a great attitude, that the average American thinks is below them.

It’s comical to think that these jobs will be done by today’s youth. They want no part in it.

 

[beer 30]

They all work hard, some would say harder than your average American. And they are for sure willing to do work, with a great attitude, that the average American thinks is below them.

It’s comical to think that these jobs will be done by today’s youth. They want no part in it.

Recently ran into this, had a leak in my roof around June, finally found a crew to fix it about a month ago. Was a father & son team, did spoke limited English, son was fully fluent so worked out when trying to converse with them. Had about 5 companies either look at it or just flat tell me no. Not stereotyping but all were Mexican crews (if you can find a non-Mexican roofing crew these days I want pictures). Dad & son busted *** for two days, was really happy to see it as dad was obviously teaching son a trade.

I was originally going to say the youth of America just seems to have quit working after COVID. It was in decline before but after COVID we lost 4-5-6? restaurants just because they couldn't staff because the kids simply didn't come back. My question is what does a kid do for cash today because I know growing up, if I wanted cash, I had to hustle. Mowing grass, cleaning out barn stalls, whatever. Same with my kids. What are kids doing to day to generate cash if they aren't working food service or doing some blue collar work in somebodies yard?

 

[DA RAIDERS]

They all work hard, some would say harder than your average American. And they are for sure willing to do work, with a great attitude, that the average American thinks is below them.

It’s comical to think that these jobs will be done by today’s youth. They want no part in it.

Recently ran into this, had a leak in my roof around June, finally found a crew to fix it about a month ago. Was a father & son team, did spoke limited English, son was fully fluent so worked out when trying to converse with them. Had about 5 companies either look at it or just flat tell me no. Not stereotyping but all were Mexican crews (if you can find a non-Mexican roofing crew these days I want pictures). Dad & son busted *** for two days, was really happy to see it as dad was obviously teaching son a trade.

I was originally going to say the youth of America just seems to have quit working after COVID. It was in decline before but after COVID we lost 4-5-6? restaurants just because they couldn't staff because the kids simply didn't come back. My question is what does a kid do for cash today because I know growing up, if I wanted cash, I had to hustle. Mowing grass, cleaning out barn stalls, whatever. Same with my kids. What are kids doing to day to generate cash if they aren't working food service or doing some blue collar work in somebodies yard?

I would say most construction crews are 65-75% Latino here in SoCal. And again, they work harder and do most of the crap work.

ETA lawn care is 99% latino

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Fewer crowds and less traffic? Sign me up.

/Thread

 

[Ministry of Pain]

We need more immigration into this country to support economic growth but of course this fact is entirely lost in the current discussions of immigration.

That's not true at all
-I'm not for open borders and think what's unfolded in recent years is unforgivable HOWEVER
I am very blunt in the communities and networks I run in to be vocal that we need the labor, too many folks sitting around doing nothing
Most of the folks I see loafing around do not look like they just walked across the border and found a park bench

-I also think leaders need to put an emphasis on people who actually get up every day and put their pants on and go to work
The 60-70% of this country that are employed need to set aside petty differences and realize they are the people that make the rich richer and the poor from being pushed into the ocean
Those folks need to huddle up and stop allowing outside forces and elected officials to push them around and set the narrative for this country

Make it cool for folks to have a job and tell everyone you're working and flourishing in this country, feels like you have to walk on eggshells and apologize for doing well
If the MoPs in laws and family knew what we made (trust me it ain't that much) they would be at our doorstep every day wanting things from us
Some people look down on others who make a 6 figure salary, that's a terrible attitude to have
There are folks that believe anyone who is gainfully employed somehow was just born into it, that's highly unfair to folks that scratched and clawed their way out of poverty

Sorry Red, I went off topic there

 

[FairWarning]

They all work hard, some would say harder than your average American. And they are for sure willing to do work, with a great attitude, that the average American thinks is below them.

It’s comical to think that these jobs will be done by today’s youth. They want no part in it.

Recently ran into this, had a leak in my roof around June, finally found a crew to fix it about a month ago. Was a father & son team, did spoke limited English, son was fully fluent so worked out when trying to converse with them. Had about 5 companies either look at it or just flat tell me no. Not stereotyping but all were Mexican crews (if you can find a non-Mexican roofing crew these days I want pictures). Dad & son busted *** for two days, was really happy to see it as dad was obviously teaching son a trade.

I was originally going to say the youth of America just seems to have quit working after COVID. It was in decline before but after COVID we lost 4-5-6? restaurants just because they couldn't staff because the kids simply didn't come back. My question is what does a kid do for cash today because I know growing up, if I wanted cash, I had to hustle. Mowing grass, cleaning out barn stalls, whatever. Same with my kids. What are kids doing to day to generate cash if they aren't working food service or doing some blue collar work in somebodies yard?

Flipping baseball cards, buying crypto, social media.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

My question is what does a kid do for cash today because I know growing up, if I wanted cash, I had to hustle. Mowing grass, cleaning out barn stalls, whatever. Same with my kids. What are kids doing to day to generate cash if they aren't working food service or doing some blue collar work in somebodies yard?

We have a bunch of other threads on here about how today's kids have no interest in learning how to drive, socializing IRL, etc. If all kids want to do is play video games and watch YouTube, they don't need cash as long as their parents foot the utility bills.