Moss vs. Owens (1 Viewer)

[timschochet]

With all apologies to Reggie Wayne, these are the two guys you want for the rest of the year. FBG has Moss rated #1, as do most experts, but I think TO is really the best guy to have.

If we just stick to the number of receptions. Moss' first 4 games were awesome: 9,8,5,9. But look at the 5 games since then: 3,6,4,3,9. If we exclude the game against Indy, cleary his numbers are going down, as Brady spreads the field to Welker and Stallworth. Defensive teams seem to choose this option rather than allow Moss one on one coverage, and I believe this trend will continue.

Now look at Owens: first 5 games: 3,5,8,3,2, nothing special by any means. Last 4 games: 6,7,10,6. Clearly Owens' numbers are increasing. Witten is a great target for Romo, but Owens remains his main man, IMO much more than Moss is Brady's main man.

Of course the key factor here is the weather. The cold weather games coming up for NE should mean less passing and more running in the playoffs. This will hurt Brady (slightly) and Moss and help Maroney.

It's very close, but for the games ahead and especially the FF playoffs, I'll take Owens over Moss.

 

[Phlash]

Why are we throwing out the game against Indy again? Oh yeah, it doesn't support your argument of a downwards trend.

Fla\/\/ed argument.

 

[Kuz]

With all apologies to Reggie Wayne, these are the two guys you want for the rest of the year. FBG has Moss rated #1, as do most experts, but I think TO is really the best guy to have. If we just stick to the number of receptions. Moss' first 4 games were awesome: 9,8,5,9. But look at the 5 games since then: 3,6,4,3,9. If we exclude the game against Indy, cleary his numbers are going down, as Brady spreads the field to Welker and Stallworth. Defensive teams seem to choose this option rather than allow Moss one on one coverage, and I believe this trend will continue.Now look at Owens: first 5 games: 3,5,8,3,2, nothing special by any means. Last 4 games: 6,7,10,6. Clearly Owens' numbers are increasing. Witten is a great target for Romo, but Owens remains his main man, IMO much more than Moss is Brady's main man. Of course the key factor here is the weather. The cold weather games coming up for NE should mean less passing and more running in the playoffs. This will hurt Brady (slightly) and Moss and help Maroney.It's very close, but for the games ahead and especially the FF playoffs, I'll take Owens over Moss.

Great info here.. so I want Moss or Owens for the playoffs... okay..

 

[timschochet]

Why are we throwing out the game against Indy again? Oh yeah, it doesn't support your argument of a downwards trend.Fla\/\/ed argument.

If he goes back to 8 or 9 receptions Sunday night, then you'll have a point. I don't think he will; I think Indy's defense allowed them to go to Moss more, and most teams won't be willing to do so. But even if I am wrong about this, the cold weather argument remains decisive...

 

[timschochet]

With all apologies to Reggie Wayne, these are the two guys you want for the rest of the year. FBG has Moss rated #1, as do most experts, but I think TO is really the best guy to have. If we just stick to the number of receptions. Moss' first 4 games were awesome: 9,8,5,9. But look at the 5 games since then: 3,6,4,3,9. If we exclude the game against Indy, cleary his numbers are going down, as Brady spreads the field to Welker and Stallworth. Defensive teams seem to choose this option rather than allow Moss one on one coverage, and I believe this trend will continue.Now look at Owens: first 5 games: 3,5,8,3,2, nothing special by any means. Last 4 games: 6,7,10,6. Clearly Owens' numbers are increasing. Witten is a great target for Romo, but Owens remains his main man, IMO much more than Moss is Brady's main man. Of course the key factor here is the weather. The cold weather games coming up for NE should mean less passing and more running in the playoffs. This will hurt Brady (slightly) and Moss and help Maroney.It's very close, but for the games ahead and especially the FF playoffs, I'll take Owens over Moss.

Great info here.. so I want Moss or Owens for the playoffs... okay..

Here's the point- if you own Moss, I would offer to trade him to the Owens owner for T.O. and something else- you'll be better off.

 

[Kuz]

With all apologies to Reggie Wayne, these are the two guys you want for the rest of the year. FBG has Moss rated #1, as do most experts, but I think TO is really the best guy to have. If we just stick to the number of receptions. Moss' first 4 games were awesome: 9,8,5,9. But look at the 5 games since then: 3,6,4,3,9. If we exclude the game against Indy, cleary his numbers are going down, as Brady spreads the field to Welker and Stallworth. Defensive teams seem to choose this option rather than allow Moss one on one coverage, and I believe this trend will continue.Now look at Owens: first 5 games: 3,5,8,3,2, nothing special by any means. Last 4 games: 6,7,10,6. Clearly Owens' numbers are increasing. Witten is a great target for Romo, but Owens remains his main man, IMO much more than Moss is Brady's main man. Of course the key factor here is the weather. The cold weather games coming up for NE should mean less passing and more running in the playoffs. This will hurt Brady (slightly) and Moss and help Maroney.It's very close, but for the games ahead and especially the FF playoffs, I'll take Owens over Moss.

Great info here.. so I want Moss or Owens for the playoffs... okay..

Here's the point- if you own Moss, I would offer to trade him to the Owens owner for T.O. and something else- you'll be better off.

I doubt you would get much more than Owens for Moss but if you could then I agree with you.. I think they will be about the same from here on & if you also could get a RB2/3 then sure.. that would work out for you..

 

[einstein2u]

i like moss.

especially week 15 against the JETS.

 

[timschochet]

i like moss.especially week 15 against the JETS.

Seriously, the matchup situation for WR's never seems to work out well. (It doesn't always work out for RB's, either- look at what Ryan Grant did against the Vikings last week). You simply cannot make any predictions about how a WR will perform based on a matchup. All you can do is look at trends, consistency, and outside factors. Both Moss and Owens have been consistently excellent. Moss is trending downward , whereas Owens is trending upwards (IMO). The outside factor of weather determines their value in relation to each other.

 

[cowboysin07]

I own Owens and bias aside I would not trade straight up. I would also rather have Wayne and probably a couple of other recievers.

 

[Sack-Religious]

Didn't you start a thread weeks ago about TO being the #1 WR this year? Seemed awfully quiet when Moss was tearing it up. While Moss's last 5 games have been 3, 6, 4, 3, 9 in the catch department his the yardage and TD's have been there, save for the Cleveland game.

3-46

6-59-1 TD

4-122-2 TD

3-47-1 TD

9-145-1 TD

Owens has been equally impressive over the past 6 weeks in both yardage and TD's.

Both are great WR's, who are playing well for their NFL and fantasy teams, but from this and previous postings it appears that you're a TO owner who's trying to justify your player being the better player.

The upcoming weather argument is valid, but hardly decisive. We have no clue what the Patriots will be doing in those games, nor can we say that the weather will be so bad that it will limit the NE passing game. Sure it might be bad, but there are no guarantees. The way the Pats are slinging the ball this year it wouldn't surprise me to see them continue with it.

 

[PatsFanCT]

i like moss.especially week 15 against the JETS.

Seriously, the matchup situation for WR's never seems to work out well. (It doesn't always work out for RB's, either- look at what Ryan Grant did against the Vikings last week). You simply cannot make any predictions about how a WR will perform based on a matchup. All you can do is look at trends, consistency, and outside factors. Both Moss and Owens have been consistently excellent. Moss is trending downward , whereas Owens is trending upwards (IMO). The outside factor of weather determines their value in relation to each other.

Seriously, Moss could end up 10 for 200 and 4 in that game. I agree matchups do tend to look better on paper than on the field, but a pissed off Belichick half a mil lighter in the pocket, going against a not-so-good Jets team at home spells total doom and domination. I also don't agree with your "outside factor", but I do know that Moss will be the highest scoring WR in week 15.

 

[MDSkinner]

i like moss.

especially week 15 against the JETS.

Seriously, the matchup situation for WR's never seems to work out well. (It doesn't always work out for RB's, either- look at what Ryan Grant did against the Vikings last week). You simply cannot make any predictions about how a WR will perform based on a matchup. All you can do is look at trends, consistency, and outside factors. Both Moss and Owens have been consistently excellent. Moss is trending downward , whereas Owens is trending upwards (IMO). The outside factor of weather determines their value in relation to each other.

I disagree. I think matchups for WR's certainly have a great deal of bearing on their situation.A prime example this year is Lee Evans. In the 9 games, he has had 4 AWFUL games, 2 Good games and 3 Spectacular games. the 4 awful games were against Denver, Pit, New England and Dallas. The 2 good were against the Jets and the Fins. The 3 spectacular games were against the Jets, Bengals and a tremendously depleted Ravens crew. The only games out of those 9 where you would not have expected what happened against the matchup were the Dallas game and the Miami game. Dallas is a midrange pass defense so that could have gone either way, and Miami is a good defense who gave up 65 yards to the guy (good, not great).

IMO, the matchup is every bit as good of a predictor as trends. Neither is a good predictor when it comes to WR's, both can certainly be useful, but no matter who they play against or how good they have been the past X number of games a WR can always explode or implode in a given game.

That said, I probably would rather have Owens out of the two guys down the stretch anyway. So even though I think your argument that matchups are a worse predictor than some other things is flawed, I think you are correct in your overall evaluation of the two. More than likely they will both be tremendous however and I would love to have either on my team.

 

[JimboJim]

What does it really matter. They are both likely to be top-5 from here on out. If you own one or the other, good for you. If you don't, good luck prying either one from their owner for market value.

Pointless thread...

 

[ckalltheway]

I traded Owens and a late first next year for Moss in my keep 3/max 2 per position/1 under 25 league because...

Moss is 4 1/2 years younger

The guy I'll probably play in the final has Brady

Moss is better and now my receivers are Moss, Ocho, Calvin, Marvin (when he gets healthy) and Isaac Bruce

I think it's a good deal for me, won my week 10 bye without Moss, but am getting clowned in my league. We'll see who gets the last laugh.

 

[Sack-Religious]

What's really scary is that based on pre-season ADP's a team could have both TO (2nd round) and Moss (4th round) and possibly Romo (6th or 7th round).

 

[gianmarco]

What's really scary is that based on pre-season ADP's a team could have both TO (2nd round) and Moss (4th round) and possibly Romo (6th or 7th round).

That shoulda been me. Passed on Moss to get H. Ward, or I would had TO/Moss all year.

 

[Men-in-Cleats]

i like moss.

especially week 15 against the JETS.

Seriously, the matchup situation for WR's never seems to work out well. (It doesn't always work out for RB's, either- look at what Ryan Grant did against the Vikings last week). You simply cannot make any predictions about how a WR will perform based on a matchup. All you can do is look at trends, consistency, and outside factors. Both Moss and Owens have been consistently excellent. Moss is trending downward , whereas Owens is trending upwards (IMO). The outside factor of weather determines their value in relation to each other.

I disagree. I think matchups for WR's certainly have a great deal of bearing on their situation.A prime example this year is Lee Evans. In the 9 games, he has had 4 AWFUL games, 2 Good games and 3 Spectacular games. the 4 awful games were against Denver, Pit, New England and Dallas. The 2 good were against the Jets and the Fins. The 3 spectacular games were against the Jets, Bengals and a tremendously depleted Ravens crew. The only games out of those 9 where you would not have expected what happened against the matchup were the Dallas game and the Miami game. Dallas is a midrange pass defense so that could have gone either way, and Miami is a good defense who gave up 65 yards to the guy (good, not great).

IMO, the matchup is every bit as good of a predictor as trends. Neither is a good predictor when it comes to WR's, both can certainly be useful, but no matter who they play against or how good they have been the past X number of games a WR can always explode or implode in a given game.

That said, I probably would rather have Owens out of the two guys down the stretch anyway. So even though I think your argument that matchups are a worse predictor than some other things is flawed, I think you are correct in your overall evaluation of the two. More than likely they will both be tremendous however and I would love to have either on my team.

WR matchups are just too variable. Lee Evans is a terrible counter to this because he is the only solid WR on the entire team. His entire production will depend on the matchup as good teams will blanket him and the whole passing game tanks while poor teams can't cover him and he blows up, probably still taking the majority of the yardage and TD's. Teams like New England it is more variable because if they play a poor defense and have three quality WR's and a good TE then you don't know what coverage the teams will do. A poor team might not be able to cover Moss completely with a double team but Welker or Stallworth might be smoking past the nickel back all day long and suck up all of the yards. Do you throw it to Moss on the times he can beat the double team or do you chuck it to one of the other targets that don't have anybody within 10 yards of them all day long? Sometimes it is against good teams where guys like Moss excell because they have better corners and use single coverage more often. It just always seems like whenever I think I have stellar matchups for my star WR it turns out that every WR, TE, and RB catches a TD but my guy.