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I don't think most of the people who drafted Bush feel like suckers right now. As for the original question, I'd say the perceived value of picks is usually higher before the draft. However, I have 1.01 in one of my leagues and I'm not going to trade it prior to the draft because it's impossible for me to accurately gauge the value of the pick without knowing exactly what I'll have to choose from.
You implied that someone who bought the Bush hype last January was a sucker. Even if his value did drop slightly after he landed in New Orleans, people who stuck with him have clearly reaped huge benefits, as he remains an extremely valuable commodity.Big Daddy Kane said:Hindsight is 20/20 sayeth wise old man Confucius.EBF said:Post-draft Reggie Bush owners were not happy. Focus on the topic grasshoppa, focus and learn something.
This is very dependent on the league scoring system and the needs/philosophy of the teams involved. Example in a contract league I hold the number 3 overall. Assuming nobody ofers me something silly for the pick , I am taking any of three remaining even though this league is not that WR freindly. I think the drop off in talent is that huge between 3 and mediocore prospects like Hunt , Irons, Bush and anyone else you think arrives in a favorable situation.El Asso Wipo said:
Agreed. Hard to imagine a situation where Calvin falls to the 4th spot as I have them rated. It's much easier to see him move up from 3rd.This is very dependent on the league scoring system and the needs/philosophy of the teams involved. Example in a contract league I hold the number 3 overall. Assuming nobody ofers me something silly for the pick , I am taking any of three remaining even though this league is not that WR freindly. I think the drop off in talent is that huge between 3 and mediocore prospects like Hunt , Irons, Bush and anyone else you think arrives in a favorable situation.El Asso Wipo said:
Yep. In a PPR, only a fool would take Irons/Pittman/Bush/Hunt over Calvin. I would even say that Dwayne Jarrett should be drafted before those guys. I have 1.01 in one of my leagues and I'm still considering CJ.Agreed. Hard to imagine a situation where Calvin falls to the 4th spot as I have them rated. It's much easier to see him move up from 3rd.This is very dependent on the league scoring system and the needs/philosophy of the teams involved. Example in a contract league I hold the number 3 overall. Assuming nobody ofers me something silly for the pick , I am taking any of three remaining even though this league is not that WR freindly. I think the drop off in talent is that huge between 3 and mediocore prospects like Hunt , Irons, Bush and anyone else you think arrives in a favorable situation.El Asso Wipo said:
I do think one of the RB's (Bush or Pittman most likely) could make the 1.03 a tough choice if they have good combines and go to a team they'll start for.Yep. In a PPR, only a fool would take Irons/Pittman/Bush/Hunt over Calvin. I would even say that Dwayne Jarrett should be drafted before those guys. I have 1.01 in one of my leagues and I'm still considering CJ.Agreed. Hard to imagine a situation where Calvin falls to the 4th spot as I have them rated. It's much easier to see him move up from 3rd.This is very dependent on the league scoring system and the needs/philosophy of the teams involved. Example in a contract league I hold the number 3 overall. Assuming nobody ofers me something silly for the pick , I am taking any of three remaining even though this league is not that WR freindly. I think the drop off in talent is that huge between 3 and mediocore prospects like Hunt , Irons, Bush and anyone else you think arrives in a favorable situation.El Asso Wipo said:
Anything can happen. I just feel that there's such a huge talent gap between Johnson/Jarrett and whoever the RB3 is, that it would be a big mistake to make that move. Think Tatum Bell over Roy Williams/Larry Fitzgerald.I do think one of the RB's (Bush or Pittman most likely) could make the 1.03 a tough choice if they have good combines and go to a team they'll start for.Yep. In a PPR, only a fool would take Irons/Pittman/Bush/Hunt over Calvin. I would even say that Dwayne Jarrett should be drafted before those guys. I have 1.01 in one of my leagues and I'm still considering CJ.Agreed. Hard to imagine a situation where Calvin falls to the 4th spot as I have them rated. It's much easier to see him move up from 3rd.This is very dependent on the league scoring system and the needs/philosophy of the teams involved. Example in a contract league I hold the number 3 overall. Assuming nobody ofers me something silly for the pick , I am taking any of three remaining even though this league is not that WR freindly. I think the drop off in talent is that huge between 3 and mediocore prospects like Hunt , Irons, Bush and anyone else you think arrives in a favorable situation.El Asso Wipo said:
I know what you are saying, but it could be Rogers over Portis as well. History has shown that RB's that go to good situations usually do well and that should be something to consider. Don't get me wrong, I have the 1.04 and would be hard-pressed to take any of the RB's over Jarrett.Anything can happen. I just feel that there's such a huge talent gap between Johnson/Jarrett and whoever the RB3 is, that it would be a big mistake to make that move. Think Tatum Bell over Roy Williams/Larry Fitzgerald.I do think one of the RB's (Bush or Pittman most likely) could make the 1.03 a tough choice if they have good combines and go to a team they'll start for.Yep. In a PPR, only a fool would take Irons/Pittman/Bush/Hunt over Calvin. I would even say that Dwayne Jarrett should be drafted before those guys. I have 1.01 in one of my leagues and I'm still considering CJ.Agreed. Hard to imagine a situation where Calvin falls to the 4th spot as I have them rated. It's much easier to see him move up from 3rd.This is very dependent on the league scoring system and the needs/philosophy of the teams involved. Example in a contract league I hold the number 3 overall. Assuming nobody ofers me something silly for the pick , I am taking any of three remaining even though this league is not that WR freindly. I think the drop off in talent is that huge between 3 and mediocore prospects like Hunt , Irons, Bush and anyone else you think arrives in a favorable situation.El Asso Wipo said:
Jarrett isn't even the 2nd best WR in this class. Maybe not even #3.Yep. In a PPR, only a fool would take Irons/Pittman/Bush/Hunt over Calvin. I would even say that Dwayne Jarrett should be drafted before those guys. I have 1.01 in one of my leagues and I'm still considering CJ.Agreed. Hard to imagine a situation where Calvin falls to the 4th spot as I have them rated. It's much easier to see him move up from 3rd.This is very dependent on the league scoring system and the needs/philosophy of the teams involved. Example in a contract league I hold the number 3 overall. Assuming nobody ofers me something silly for the pick , I am taking any of three remaining even though this league is not that WR freindly. I think the drop off in talent is that huge between 3 and mediocore prospects like Hunt , Irons, Bush and anyone else you think arrives in a favorable situation.El Asso Wipo said:
I understand what you're saying, but Rogers had character flaws which we knew about, but many overlooked. CJ doesn't have those problems, at least from what I've seen and heard.In my leagues, it's more likely to see CJ overtaking Lynch or AD than drop to 4, but WRs are more valuable in those leagues. Not only PPR, but lineups make a key difference, if you start 1-2 RBs and 3-4 WRs, I'd take CJ top 3 without a doubt. FWIW, I find trading picks during the FF draft or before to be a better move than later, unless you wait until camp and you picked right.I know what you are saying, but it could be Rogers over Portis as well. History has shown that RB's that go to good situations usually do well and that should be something to consider. Don't get me wrong, I have the 1.04 and would be hard-pressed to take any of the RB's over Jarrett.Anything can happen. I just feel that there's such a huge talent gap between Johnson/Jarrett and whoever the RB3 is, that it would be a big mistake to make that move. Think Tatum Bell over Roy Williams/Larry Fitzgerald.I do think one of the RB's (Bush or Pittman most likely) could make the 1.03 a tough choice if they have good combines and go to a team they'll start for.Yep. In a PPR, only a fool would take Irons/Pittman/Bush/Hunt over Calvin. I would even say that Dwayne Jarrett should be drafted before those guys. I have 1.01 in one of my leagues and I'm still considering CJ.Agreed. Hard to imagine a situation where Calvin falls to the 4th spot as I have them rated. It's much easier to see him move up from 3rd.This is very dependent on the league scoring system and the needs/philosophy of the teams involved. Example in a contract league I hold the number 3 overall. Assuming nobody ofers me something silly for the pick , I am taking any of three remaining even though this league is not that WR freindly. I think the drop off in talent is that huge between 3 and mediocore prospects like Hunt , Irons, Bush and anyone else you think arrives in a favorable situation.El Asso Wipo said:
In rough order of value:1. Picks before the NFL draft (with some exceptions, usually picks 4-7 or so can increase in value)2. Picks during the FF draft (players drop to your pick who others want)3. picks before the FF draft, but after NFL draft4. after you made the pick (you're limiting the other team's options)
I, and it appears many, disagree with you here, but maybe.
Even if that's true, I'd bet pretty good money that he'll still be chosen 15-20 spots ahead of any RB not named Peterson or Lynch. He's a much better NFL prospect than any of the second tier RBs.Ramblin Wreck said:Jarrett isn't even the 2nd best WR in this class. Maybe not even #3.EBF said:Yep. In a PPR, only a fool would take Irons/Pittman/Bush/Hunt over Calvin. I would even say that Dwayne Jarrett should be drafted before those guys. I have 1.01 in one of my leagues and I'm still considering CJ.Chaos Commish said:Agreed. Hard to imagine a situation where Calvin falls to the 4th spot as I have them rated. It's much easier to see him move up from 3rd.coolnerd said:This is very dependent on the league scoring system and the needs/philosophy of the teams involved. Example in a contract league I hold the number 3 overall. Assuming nobody ofers me something silly for the pick , I am taking any of three remaining even though this league is not that WR freindly. I think the drop off in talent is that huge between 3 and mediocore prospects like Hunt , Irons, Bush and anyone else you think arrives in a favorable situation.El Asso Wipo said:Ramblin Wreck said:
Where on is picked in the NFL Draft has nothing to do with dynasty value.Would you rather have Chad Jackson or Maurice Jones-Drew?Even if that's true, I'd bet pretty good money that he'll still be chosen 15-20 spots ahead of any RB not named Peterson or Lynch. He's a much better NFL prospect than any of the second tier RBs.Ramblin Wreck said:Jarrett isn't even the 2nd best WR in this class. Maybe not even #3.EBF said:Yep. In a PPR, only a fool would take Irons/Pittman/Bush/Hunt over Calvin. I would even say that Dwayne Jarrett should be drafted before those guys. I have 1.01 in one of my leagues and I'm still considering CJ.Chaos Commish said:Agreed. Hard to imagine a situation where Calvin falls to the 4th spot as I have them rated. It's much easier to see him move up from 3rd.coolnerd said:This is very dependent on the league scoring system and the needs/philosophy of the teams involved. Example in a contract league I hold the number 3 overall. Assuming nobody ofers me something silly for the pick , I am taking any of three remaining even though this league is not that WR freindly. I think the drop off in talent is that huge between 3 and mediocore prospects like Hunt , Irons, Bush and anyone else you think arrives in a favorable situation.El Asso Wipo said:Ramblin Wreck said:
Poor example. Jackson was a poor WR prospect whereas Jarret is top-flight. The 2nd tier RB's this year are terrible compared to last year.And if you want, I can cherry pick names too: Would you rather have Mark Clayton or JJ Arrington? Roy Williams or Greg Jones?Edit: "Poor" as in compared to most years. The WR's last year were dismal.Where on is picked in the NFL Draft has nothing to do with dynasty value.Would you rather have Chad Jackson or Maurice Jones-Drew?Even if that's true, I'd bet pretty good money that he'll still be chosen 15-20 spots ahead of any RB not named Peterson or Lynch. He's a much better NFL prospect than any of the second tier RBs.Ramblin Wreck said:Jarrett isn't even the 2nd best WR in this class. Maybe not even #3.EBF said:Yep. In a PPR, only a fool would take Irons/Pittman/Bush/Hunt over Calvin. I would even say that Dwayne Jarrett should be drafted before those guys. I have 1.01 in one of my leagues and I'm still considering CJ.Chaos Commish said:Agreed. Hard to imagine a situation where Calvin falls to the 4th spot as I have them rated. It's much easier to see him move up from 3rd.coolnerd said:This is very dependent on the league scoring system and the needs/philosophy of the teams involved. Example in a contract league I hold the number 3 overall. Assuming nobody ofers me something silly for the pick , I am taking any of three remaining even though this league is not that WR freindly. I think the drop off in talent is that huge between 3 and mediocore prospects like Hunt , Irons, Bush and anyone else you think arrives in a favorable situation.El Asso Wipo said:Ramblin Wreck said:
Okay. I betcha Calvin still doesn't become the consensus #3 pick in rookie drafts. And I love the guy; just look at my username.Poor example. Jackson was a poor WR prospect whereas Jarret is top-flight. The 2nd tier RB's this year are terrible compared to last year.And if you want, I can cherry pick names too: Would you rather have Mark Clayton or JJ Arrington? Roy Williams or Greg Jones?Edit: "Poor" as in compared to most years. The WR's last year were dismal.Where on is picked in the NFL Draft has nothing to do with dynasty value.Would you rather have Chad Jackson or Maurice Jones-Drew?Even if that's true, I'd bet pretty good money that he'll still be chosen 15-20 spots ahead of any RB not named Peterson or Lynch. He's a much better NFL prospect than any of the second tier RBs.Jarrett isn't even the 2nd best WR in this class. Maybe not even #3.Yep. In a PPR, only a fool would take Irons/Pittman/Bush/Hunt over Calvin. I would even say that Dwayne Jarrett should be drafted before those guys. I have 1.01 in one of my leagues and I'm still considering CJ.Agreed. Hard to imagine a situation where Calvin falls to the 4th spot as I have them rated. It's much easier to see him move up from 3rd.This is very dependent on the league scoring system and the needs/philosophy of the teams involved. Example in a contract league I hold the number 3 overall. Assuming nobody ofers me something silly for the pick , I am taking any of three remaining even though this league is not that WR freindly. I think the drop off in talent is that huge between 3 and mediocore prospects like Hunt , Irons, Bush and anyone else you think arrives in a favorable situation.El Asso Wipo said:
That's not true. In general, first round picks succeed more frequently than second round picks. Second round picks succeed more frequently than third round picks. Third round picks succeed more frequently than fourth round picks. And so on. That doesn't mean there won't sometimes be a sixth round pick who becomes more valuable than a first round pick, but it's against the odds on average.
