Most Over Rated player of '07 (1 Viewer)

[Dhizz]

Numbers are a funny thing, you know.

Take duane's post at face value he is 100% correct. MBIII had more carries than Maroney both in 2003 and 2004. Gary Russell had a large chunk in 2005. Maroney never "carried the load" and "always shared". I do think Yukdins' point was not to refute what he said specifically, but to show that he really did handle a large number of carries and if he really did take on almost 700 carries in three years in the NCAAs, then for any reasonable person, he quieted any "he can't handle the load" talk.

In conclusion, the "owned" sign was pretty lazy.

College != NFL. Dayne carried the load in college. So did Benson. So did Chris Perry.

Chris Perry was a workhorse RB in college. How you like them apples?

Perry set a Michigan game record with 51 carries in a 27-20 win over Michigan State on November 1, 2003.

 

[David Yudkin]

IMO, toting the rock 25 times a game his last year is more than 98% of most RBs in the NFL. That works out to 400 carries over a 16 game season. Now we'll hear that he was overworked instead.

So you have no concerns about Benson then? Again, a beast in college. Work horse.NFL, not so much.

My mantra (again for those that somehow missed it) . . .I like RBs that are in line to get a big workload even if they are average in terms of production. I see Benson getting the ball a lot but not being phenomenally successful. Think Chester Taylor last year. Big workload still = decent fantasy stats.I have Benson ranked 12th not because I think he is uber talented but because I think he will get a huge piece of the pie.I have Maroney at the moment at 14th but as I outlined above he could just as easily rank 8th or 18th because scoring wise there is not a huge difference in that bandwidth.

 

[ImTheScientist]

IMO, toting the rock 25 times a game his last year is more than 98% of most RBs in the NFL. That works out to 400 carries over a 16 game season. Now we'll hear that he was overworked instead.

So you have no concerns about Benson then? Again, a beast in college. Work horse.NFL, not so much.

Benson has not been given the opportunity to be a work horse until this year. Yudkin was stating that Maroney can carry the load by showing his college stats. Do you honestly believe based off of a rookie season that Maroney can not carry the load? I think you need a larger sample size and Yudkin was showing that.

 

[Dhizz]

Because its a statistical projection and not based on last years stats

The Pats as a team had

499 rushing attempts

1969 rushing yards

3.95 ypc

20 rushing TD

Last year they finished 4th in rushing TD's in the NFL

So explain why you're projecting Addai/MJD/Bush to do worse, and Maroney to do better. Certainly not based on how they played IN the NFL.How many top 10 FF RBs have the Pats had in the last 8 years? Once? Twice?

This isn't the 2003 Chiefs we're talking about.

And they finished 4th in rushing TDs, with Dillon, who is now gone. So the next guy automatically gets his production? Man it's easy to project for football! Just switch the names and paste in the numbers.

 

[David Yudkin]

Let's turn the tables here on Joe T . . .The Pats as a team had499 rushing attempts1969 rushing yards3.95 ypc20 rushing TDThe RB corps chipped in roughly 90 receptions, 750 receiving yards, and 4 receiving TD.WHAT DO YOU SEE THE PATRIOTS RB CORPS PRODUCING THIS YEAR AND WHO PUTS UP WHAT NUMBERS?

Fair enough.I'd go:Maroney 238 1019 6Morris 125 454 4Faulk 37 126 0Hairston/Smith 39 127 0Pats= 439 1726 9Maroney receiving = 29 254 1This would put Maroney around RB 17 or 18.

The main issue here (at least for me) is that Maroney only would score 7 TD with roughly 260-270 touches. I am a big believer in randomness of TD opportunities so that certainly could happen.However, that would match Maroney's total from last year with roughly 80-90 more touches.My next question would be if the Pats RBs dropped from 24 to 11 TD, is Tom Brady going to have 40 TD this year?

 

[Dhizz]

IMO, toting the rock 25 times a game his last year is more than 98% of most RBs in the NFL. That works out to 400 carries over a 16 game season. Now we'll hear that he was overworked instead.

So you have no concerns about Benson then? Again, a beast in college. Work horse.NFL, not so much.

Benson has not been given the opportunity to be a work horse until this year. Yudkin was stating that Maroney can carry the load by showing his college stats. Do you honestly believe based off of a rookie season that Maroney can not carry the load? I think you need a larger sample size and Yudkin was showing that.

I'm saying college is different then the NFL. You can't say workhorse in college, workhorse in NFL.Explain Chris Perry to me?

I'm just tossing out Benson because a lot of people believe he's injury prone. He was a beast in college.

At some point, college ball doesn't mean anything anymore for an NFL player. Like the Tuna says, you are what your record says you are. And Maroney is what his numbers say he is. Showed some flashes, hit he wall, got hurt. That's a big leap to top 10 RB.

 

[dgreen]

Let's turn the tables here on Joe T . . .The Pats as a team had499 rushing attempts1969 rushing yards3.95 ypc20 rushing TDThe RB corps chipped in roughly 90 receptions, 750 receiving yards, and 4 receiving TD.WHAT DO YOU SEE THE PATRIOTS RB CORPS PRODUCING THIS YEAR AND WHO PUTS UP WHAT NUMBERS?

Fair enough.I'd go:Maroney 238 1019 6Morris 125 454 4Faulk 37 126 0Hairston/Smith 39 127 0Pats= 439 1726 9Maroney receiving = 29 254 1This would put Maroney around RB 17 or 18.

The main issue here (at least for me) is that Maroney only would score 7 TD with roughly 260-270 touches. I am a big believer in randomness of TD opportunities so that certainly could happen.However, that would match Maroney's total from last year with roughly 80-90 more touches.My next question would be if the Pats RBs dropped from 24 to 11 TD, is Tom Brady going to have 40 TD this year?

Also, Joe T, are these projections based on Maroney playing in 16 games? If not, how many games do you see Maroney missing?

 

[Dhizz]

IMO, toting the rock 25 times a game his last year is more than 98% of most RBs in the NFL. That works out to 400 carries over a 16 game season. Now we'll hear that he was overworked instead.

So you have no concerns about Benson then? Again, a beast in college. Work horse.NFL, not so much.

My mantra (again for those that somehow missed it) . . .I like RBs that are in line to get a big workload even if they are average in terms of production. I see Benson getting the ball a lot but not being phenomenally successful. Think Chester Taylor last year. Big workload still = decent fantasy stats.I have Benson ranked 12th not because I think he is uber talented but because I think he will get a huge piece of the pie.I have Maroney at the moment at 14th but as I outlined above he could just as easily rank 8th or 18th because scoring wise there is not a huge difference in that bandwidth.

My point is, Maroney isn't PROVEN that he can carry the load. He can carry the load in college. Chris Perry proved he can carry the load in college.That doesn't mean much.And 14th isn't a bad spot. But with his red flags, 8-10 is a fairly big leap for me. At some point, his rookie year, his injuries, have to make him riskier the higher you rank him. I agree with Joe T, 10th is far too high for my liking. At least 14-15, maybe more.

 

[Joe T]

My next question would be if the Pats RBs dropped from 24 to 11 TD, is Tom Brady going to have 40 TD this year?

Might be a tad optimistic on Brady, but not as optimistic as Maroney finishing as a top 10 RB.I do think Brady will have a lot of TD's this year.

 

[culdeus]

Let's turn the tables here on Joe T . . .The Pats as a team had499 rushing attempts1969 rushing yards3.95 ypc20 rushing TDThe RB corps chipped in roughly 90 receptions, 750 receiving yards, and 4 receiving TD.WHAT DO YOU SEE THE PATRIOTS RB CORPS PRODUCING THIS YEAR AND WHO PUTS UP WHAT NUMBERS?

Fair enough.I'd go:Maroney 238 1019 6Morris 125 454 4Faulk 37 126 0Hairston/Smith 39 127 0Pats= 439 1726 9Maroney receiving = 29 254 1This would put Maroney around RB 17 or 18.

The better question is what in the world would account for a 50% dropoff in team rushing tds?

 

[ImTheScientist]

IMO, toting the rock 25 times a game his last year is more than 98% of most RBs in the NFL. That works out to 400 carries over a 16 game season. Now we'll hear that he was overworked instead.

So you have no concerns about Benson then? Again, a beast in college. Work horse.NFL, not so much.

Benson has not been given the opportunity to be a work horse until this year. Yudkin was stating that Maroney can carry the load by showing his college stats. Do you honestly believe based off of a rookie season that Maroney can not carry the load? I think you need a larger sample size and Yudkin was showing that.

I'm saying college is different then the NFL. You can't say workhorse in college, workhorse in NFL.Explain Chris Perry to me?

I'm just tossing out Benson because a lot of people believe he's injury prone. He was a beast in college.

At some point, college ball doesn't mean anything anymore for an NFL player. Like the Tuna says, you are what your record says you are. And Maroney is what his numbers say he is. Showed some flashes, hit he wall, got hurt. That's a big leap to top 10 RB.

Do you really need me to explain this too you....sad.....For every Chris Perry (someone who carried the load in college and could not in the NFL) there are multiple players who carry the load in college and the NFL. In fact take a look at the starting RB's for every NFL team over the last 10 years and I am willing to bet that most of them carried the load in college and the NFL. Very few do not carry the load in college and carry the load in the nfl.

You are pointing out a small minority of players that fit your criteria so that you can try to prove a point (when you say that carrying the load in college does not mean you can carry the load in the NFL), when in fact you are wrong.

 

[David Yudkin]

IMO, toting the rock 25 times a game his last year is more than 98% of most RBs in the NFL. That works out to 400 carries over a 16 game season. Now we'll hear that he was overworked instead.

So you have no concerns about Benson then? Again, a beast in college. Work horse.NFL, not so much.

My mantra (again for those that somehow missed it) . . .I like RBs that are in line to get a big workload even if they are average in terms of production. I see Benson getting the ball a lot but not being phenomenally successful. Think Chester Taylor last year. Big workload still = decent fantasy stats.I have Benson ranked 12th not because I think he is uber talented but because I think he will get a huge piece of the pie.I have Maroney at the moment at 14th but as I outlined above he could just as easily rank 8th or 18th because scoring wise there is not a huge difference in that bandwidth.

My point is, Maroney isn't PROVEN that he can carry the load. He can carry the load in college. Chris Perry proved he can carry the load in college.That doesn't mean much.And 14th isn't a bad spot. But with his red flags, 8-10 is a fairly big leap for me. At some point, his rookie year, his injuries, have to make him riskier the higher you rank him. I agree with Joe T, 10th is far too high for my liking. At least 14-15, maybe more.

The difference between 10th and 15th last year was a whopping 11 fantasy points. IMO, we are debating minutiae at this point. One broken tackle that results in a 50-yard TD run is basically the difference in a half dozen rankings.

 

[Joe T]

The difference between 10th and 15th last year was a whopping 11 fantasy points. IMO, we are debating minutiae at this point. One broken tackle that results in a 50-yard TD run is basically the difference in a half dozen rankings.

Depends on scoring system, but....That is also what separates champions from the rest.

 

[David Yudkin]

My next question would be if the Pats RBs dropped from 24 to 11 TD, is Tom Brady going to have 40 TD this year?

Might be a tad optimistic on Brady, but not as optimistic as Maroney finishing as a top 10 RB.I do think Brady will have a lot of TD's this year.

If the RBs drop off by that much scoring wise and Brady doesn't improve by that much than the Pats as a whole will end up scoring fewer points on offense than they did last year. (Brady would actually need 37 TD to make it even compared to last year).

 

[LHUCKS]

He's high risk/high reward like a lot of young, upcoming talents.

I'll think he'll be there eventually, the only question is when.

Weren't people saying the same about Gore about one year ago? Shoulder injuries are not ACL injuries.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

He's high risk/high reward like a lot of young, upcoming talents.I'll think he'll be there eventually, the only question is when.Weren't people saying the same about Gore about one year ago? Shoulder injuries are not ACL injuries.

So, then every single guy who had a veteran player leave the team will be "this year's Gore"?Btw, good post Joet. This continues our long-standing tradition of finding horribly overrated players. The McGahee thread of ours was GENIUS!

 

[Banger]

I think Maroney is a risky pick based on his limited track record and injury situation. I tend to avoid the 2nd year high fliers since the failure rate is pretty high and missing on your 1st round pick tends to really put you behind the 8 ball for the entire season.

Last year probably the biggest flops were L. Jordan (ranked 8th in '06), R. Brown (5th in '06), Edge (11th) and Caddy (9th). In nearly all of those situations they failed due to O-line and/or QB implosion. I don't see that being much of a factor in NE and he has no competition at all on the roster. Maroney is in a real good situation and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he ended up as a top 5 back this year but he'll probably end up on a team other than mine.

 

[LHUCKS]

He's high risk/high reward like a lot of young, upcoming talents.I'll think he'll be there eventually, the only question is when.Weren't people saying the same about Gore about one year ago? Shoulder injuries are not ACL injuries.

So, then every single guy who had a veteran player leave the team will be "this year's Gore"?

I mentined Gore because of his shoulder surgeries last year.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

He's high risk/high reward like a lot of young, upcoming talents.I'll think he'll be there eventually, the only question is when.Weren't people saying the same about Gore about one year ago? Shoulder injuries are not ACL injuries.

So, then every single guy who had a veteran player leave the team will be "this year's Gore"?

I mentined Gore because of his shoulder surgeries last year.

Oh. In any case, I agree about "eventually"Bottom line, it's one thing to hope for 10th best RB, it's another to predict it. He's overrated right now.

 

[TD Ryan]

Let's turn the tables here on Joe T . . .

The Pats as a team had

499 rushing attempts

1969 rushing yards

3.95 ypc

20 rushing TD

The RB corps chipped in roughly 90 receptions, 750 receiving yards, and 4 receiving TD.

WHAT DO YOU SEE THE PATRIOTS RB CORPS PRODUCING THIS YEAR AND WHO PUTS UP WHAT NUMBERS?

Fair enough.I'd go:

Maroney 238 1019 6

Morris 125 454 4

Faulk 37 126 0

Hairston/Smith 39 127 0

Pats= 439 1726 9

Maroney receiving = 29 254 1

This would put Maroney around RB 17 or 18.

Hi JoeT,not saying you don't have a right to be concerned about Maroney... you do... we all do.

But to me, the issue is durability and the RISK associated with drafting Maroney so high.

He's shown that he has the talent to play well in the NFL.

If injury/durability = overrated, then I completely agree... Maroney is overrated because of his durability issues.

Here's some historical data on NE's rush attack during the Brady/Belichick era:

over the last 6 seasons, NE has averaged 1753 rush yards and 14 rush TDs
their best year for yardage during that period was 2004 (2134 yards)
their worst year for yardage during that period was 2002 (1508 yards)
their best year for rush TDs during that period was 2006 (20 rush TDs)
their worst year for rush TDs druing that period was 2002 and 2003 (9 rush TDs)JoeT, the rushing stats you've projected for NE would put them on par with their worst rushing seasons in the last 6 years.

During the '02 (1508, 9tds) and '03 (1607, 9tds) seasons, the plodding Antowain Smith "lead" NE to the 26th and 29th ranked rushing attacks in the NFL.

Here's some things to consider:

#1. The New England Offensive Line

- certainly looks the best line NE has had during their run and maybe a top 3 line in the NFL. With an O-line like this, the team should have some success running the ball whether it's Laurence Maroney or RBBC platoon filling in for Maroney.

#2. The Pats Pass attack

- IMO, it is unlikely that NE becomes a pass-first team. With all the high-profile WR signings, it's easy to THINK that's what will happen. But the bottom line for Belichick is winning football games and key parts of that formula are balance and versatility. They try to be versatile on both offense and defense. Their goal is to be able to play and win any "flavor" of football game and ideally control what flavor the game will have.

The most "unbalanced" NE has been (in the B/B era) was '02 when Brady had over 600 pass attempts... the most of his career. NE doesn't want to pass that much. They did it during that '02 - '03 stretch because the COULD NOT run the ball.

#3. Yeah, yeah... so now you want me to pony-up and give you my projections. *IF* Maroney stays reasonably healthy (miss no more than ONE game or so):

2007 Team Projections

(New England Patriots

Total Pass Yards: 4200

Total Pass TDs: 28

Total Pass Completions: 340

Total Rush Yards: 1750

Total Rush TDs: 15

QB Tom Brady

4200 yards pass

28 TDs

14 Ints

340 completions

RB L Maroney:

1300 yards rush, 10 rush TDs

30 catch, 300 yards, 1 TD

RB S Morris /Kevin Faulk/H Evans

450 yards rush

5 rush TDs

30 catch, 300 yards, 1 TD

 

[bostonfred]

Either we're going to hear about Joe T's most underrated player of 07, Tom Brady, or we're going to hear why a team that significantly upgraded the offense this year is going to score a lot fewer points.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

Let's turn the tables here on Joe T . . .

The Pats as a team had

499 rushing attempts

1969 rushing yards

3.95 ypc

20 rushing TD

The RB corps chipped in roughly 90 receptions, 750 receiving yards, and 4 receiving TD.

WHAT DO YOU SEE THE PATRIOTS RB CORPS PRODUCING THIS YEAR AND WHO PUTS UP WHAT NUMBERS?

Fair enough.I'd go:

Maroney 238 1019 6

Morris 125 454 4

Faulk 37 126 0

Hairston/Smith 39 127 0

Pats= 439 1726 9

Maroney receiving = 29 254 1

This would put Maroney around RB 17 or 18.

Hi JoeT,not saying you don't have a right to be concerned about Maroney... you do... we all do.

But to me, the issue is durability and the RISK associated with drafting Maroney so high.

He's shown that he has the talent to play well in the NFL.

If injury/durability = overrated, then I completely agree... Maroney is overrated because of his durability issues.

Here's some historical data on NE's rush attack during the Brady/Belichick era:

over the last 6 seasons, NE has averaged 1753 rush yards and 14 rush TDs
their best year for yardage during that period was 2004 (2134 yards)
their worst year for yardage during that period was 2002 (1508 yards)
their best year for rush TDs during that period was 2006 (20 rush TDs)
their worst year for rush TDs druing that period was 2002 and 2003 (9 rush TDs)JoeT, the rushing stats you've projected for NE would put them on par with their worst rushing seasons in the last 6 years.

During the '02 (1508, 9tds) and '03 (1607, 9tds) seasons, the plodding Antowain Smith "lead" NE to the 26th and 29th ranked rushing attacks in the NFL.

Here's some things to consider:

#1. The New England Offensive Line

- certainly looks the best line NE has had during their run and maybe a top 3 line in the NFL. With an O-line like this, the team should have some success running the ball whether it's Laurence Maroney or RBBC platoon filling in for Maroney.

#2. The Pats Pass attack

- IMO, it is unlikely that NE becomes a pass-first team. With all the high-profile WR signings, it's easy to THINK that's what will happen. But the bottom line for Belichick is winning football games and key parts of that formula are balance and versatility. They try to be versatile on both offense and defense. Their goal is to be able to play and win any "flavor" of football game and ideally control what flavor the game will have.

The most "unbalanced" NE has been (in the B/B era) was '02 when Brady had over 600 pass attempts... the most of his career. NE doesn't want to pass that much. They did it during that '02 - '03 stretch because the COULD NOT run the ball.

#3. Yeah, yeah... so now you want me to pony-up and give you my projections. *IF* Maroney stays reasonably healthy (miss no more than ONE game or so):

2007 Team Projections

(New England Patriots

Total Pass Yards: 4200

Total Pass TDs: 28

Total Pass Completions: 340

Total Rush Yards: 1750

Total Rush TDs: 15

QB Tom Brady

4200 yards pass

28 TDs

14 Ints

340 completions

RB L Maroney:

1300 yards rush, 10 rush TDs

30 catch, 300 yards, 1 TD

RB S Morris /Kevin Faulk/H Evans

450 yards rush

5 rush TDs

30 catch, 300 yards, 1 TD

These comments are pretty accurate.During the last 6 seasons, the top WRs for New England were Troy Brown, and Deion Branch.

"Ouch" -- maybe 1 1,000 yard season for a WR in the last 6 years.

And now they have Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth....

 

[TD Ryan]

During the last 6 seasons, the top WRs for New England were Troy Brown, and Deion Branch."Ouch" -- maybe 1 1,000 yard season for a WR in the last 6 years.And now they have Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth....

true, but I don't believe NE is going to change their philosophy and focus their game plan around Moss and Stallworth.I believe Moss and Stallworth will compliment what NE currently does, not change it dramatically.NE has been looking for the tall/fast WR for a long time now (see D Hayes, D Terrell, A Davis, B Johnson) and none have ever panned out. Moss and Stallworth will most likely come in an be asked to run a lot of the same routes NE already has in place with hopefully greater success because of their size/speed (with of course a few new wrinkles thrown in, but not an overhaul).And remember, NE is still a defensive team. Adalius Thomas was the biggest off season signing, not Moss or Stallworth.Ideally, the NE defense will control games enough that NE won't have to be careless with an all-out passing game. They'll go 5-wide and pass when they want/need to; not because it's their bread&butter.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

During the last 6 seasons, the top WRs for New England were Troy Brown, and Deion Branch."Ouch" -- maybe 1 1,000 yard season for a WR in the last 6 years.And now they have Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth....

true, but I don't believe NE is going to change their philosophy and focus their game plan around Moss and Stallworth.I believe Moss and Stallworth will compliment what NE currently does, not change it dramatically.NE has been looking for the tall/fast WR for a long time now (see D Hayes, D Terrell, A Davis, B Johnson) and none have ever panned out. Moss and Stallworth will most likely come in an be asked to run a lot of the same routes NE already has in place with hopefully greater success because of their size/speed (with of course a few new wrinkles thrown in, but not an overhaul).And remember, NE is still a defensive team. Adalius Thomas was the biggest off season signing, not Moss or Stallworth.Ideally, the NE defense will control games enough that NE won't have to be careless with an all-out passing game. They'll go 5-wide and pass when they want/need to; not because it's their bread&butter.

Again, I agree in concept. BUT, none of the 4 receivers you mentioned ever did anything ANYWHERE.I don't see a change in philosophy, I see a change is success. Brady has thrown many many many passes before. Now he has playmakers who can catch the ball. Both of these guys are significantly better than Troy Brown and/or Deion Branch.

 

[Joe T]

He's high risk/high reward like a lot of young, upcoming talents.I'll think he'll be there eventually, the only question is when.Weren't people saying the same about Gore about one year ago? Shoulder injuries are not ACL injuries.

So, then every single guy who had a veteran player leave the team will be "this year's Gore"?

I mentined Gore because of his shoulder surgeries last year.

Gore was going in the 3rd round last year. There is a huge difference.

 

[bostonfred]

I don't see a change in philosophy, I see a change is success. Brady has thrown many many many passes before. Now he has playmakers who can catch the ball. Both of these guys are significantly better than Troy Brown and/or Deion Branch.

That seems reasonable. I think the Pats will be 60/40 pass in the middle of the field, and 50/50 at the goal line, and Maroney should get most of the goal line TDs if he's healthy. I think the offense as a whole will be more productive. Setting aside the specific player, the running back in this offense seems to be set up well for decent yards, and lots of touchdowns. When you consider his talent, injury risk, Belichick's propensity for RBBC, and the caliber and style of players in the rest of the RB corps, I think Maroney should at least put up the numbers an average running back would in that offense. Do you agree?

 

[Joe T]

Either we're going to hear about Joe T's most underrated player of 07, Tom Brady, or we're going to hear why a team that significantly upgraded the offense this year is going to score a lot fewer points.

I never projected the Pats to score a lot fewer points.This is a Maroney thread.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

I don't see a change in philosophy, I see a change is success. Brady has thrown many many many passes before. Now he has playmakers who can catch the ball. Both of these guys are significantly better than Troy Brown and/or Deion Branch.

That seems reasonable. I think the Pats will be 60/40 pass in the middle of the field, and 50/50 at the goal line, and Maroney should get most of the goal line TDs if he's healthy. I think the offense as a whole will be more productive. Setting aside the specific player, the running back in this offense seems to be set up well for decent yards, and lots of touchdowns. When you consider his talent, injury risk, Belichick's propensity for RBBC, and the caliber and style of players in the rest of the RB corps, I think Maroney should at least put up the numbers an average running back would in that offense. Do you agree?

Yes. If healthy, he should put up better than average numbers. I think his health, plus the additional offensive weapons mean he's an awesome RB1.5-2. I like him, but not at RB10.

 

[LHUCKS]

He's high risk/high reward like a lot of young, upcoming talents.I'll think he'll be there eventually, the only question is when.Weren't people saying the same about Gore about one year ago? Shoulder injuries are not ACL injuries.

So, then every single guy who had a veteran player leave the team will be "this year's Gore"?

I mentined Gore because of his shoulder surgeries last year.

Gore was going in the 3rd round last year. There is a huge difference.

And I'm not comparing their ADP. Aside from injury concerns, Gore's ADP was also effected by what appeared to be other negative factors, namely offensive capability.Gore and Maroney are similar in that shoulder issues were/are issues mentioned by ff'ers for both.

 

[cmv5]

Let's turn the tables here on Joe T . . .

The Pats as a team had

499 rushing attempts

1969 rushing yards

3.95 ypc

20 rushing TD

The RB corps chipped in roughly 90 receptions, 750 receiving yards, and 4 receiving TD.

WHAT DO YOU SEE THE PATRIOTS RB CORPS PRODUCING THIS YEAR AND WHO PUTS UP WHAT NUMBERS?

Fair enough.I'd go:

Maroney 238 1019 6

Morris 125 454 4

Faulk 37 126 0

Hairston/Smith 39 127 0

Pats= 439 1726 9

Maroney receiving = 29 254 1

This would put Maroney around RB 17 or 18.

Hi JoeT,not saying you don't have a right to be concerned about Maroney... you do... we all do.

But to me, the issue is durability and the RISK associated with drafting Maroney so high.

He's shown that he has the talent to play well in the NFL.

If injury/durability = overrated, then I completely agree... Maroney is overrated because of his durability issues.

Here's some historical data on NE's rush attack during the Brady/Belichick era:

over the last 6 seasons, NE has averaged 1753 rush yards and 14 rush TDs
their best year for yardage during that period was 2004 (2134 yards)
their worst year for yardage during that period was 2002 (1508 yards)
their best year for rush TDs during that period was 2006 (20 rush TDs)
their worst year for rush TDs druing that period was 2002 and 2003 (9 rush TDs)JoeT, the rushing stats you've projected for NE would put them on par with their worst rushing seasons in the last 6 years.

During the '02 (1508, 9tds) and '03 (1607, 9tds) seasons, the plodding Antowain Smith "lead" NE to the 26th and 29th ranked rushing attacks in the NFL.

Here's some things to consider:

#1. The New England Offensive Line

- certainly looks the best line NE has had during their run and maybe a top 3 line in the NFL. With an O-line like this, the team should have some success running the ball whether it's Laurence Maroney or RBBC platoon filling in for Maroney.

#2. The Pats Pass attack

- IMO, it is unlikely that NE becomes a pass-first team. With all the high-profile WR signings, it's easy to THINK that's what will happen. But the bottom line for Belichick is winning football games and key parts of that formula are balance and versatility. They try to be versatile on both offense and defense. Their goal is to be able to play and win any "flavor" of football game and ideally control what flavor the game will have.

The most "unbalanced" NE has been (in the B/B era) was '02 when Brady had over 600 pass attempts... the most of his career. NE doesn't want to pass that much. They did it during that '02 - '03 stretch because the COULD NOT run the ball.

#3. Yeah, yeah... so now you want me to pony-up and give you my projections. *IF* Maroney stays reasonably healthy (miss no more than ONE game or so):

2007 Team Projections

(New England Patriots

Total Pass Yards: 4200

Total Pass TDs: 28

Total Pass Completions: 340

Total Rush Yards: 1750

Total Rush TDs: 15

QB Tom Brady

4200 yards pass

28 TDs

14 Ints

340 completions

RB L Maroney:

1300 yards rush, 10 rush TDs

30 catch, 300 yards, 1 TD

RB S Morris /Kevin Faulk/H Evans

450 yards rush

5 rush TDs

30 catch, 300 yards, 1 TD

Great post. Well thought out. It comes down to Maroney's health and durabiity for me as well. IF you watched that Pats-Lions game he took a monster hit. I will wait to hear how the shoulder is healing up and rank him accordingly. If the shoulder looks like an injury that will be a factor into the season then he should drop. Let's also look at the fact that the Patriots changed their blocking scheme to fit around Maroney and have done nothing significantly through free agency or the draft to indicate they don't expect Maroney to be able to get the job done. I will trust New England's coaching staff over some random speculation.

New England is a well coached team. Anybody who expects them to become a super pass happy offense just because they see a few big name wrs on the squad doesn't understand that a balanced offense is the only way to win championships. Clock time is essential.

 

[BroadwayG]

Bumping him up a few notches on my board.

 

[erymer]

The only way I buy into the arguement that he would be overated is if you are concerned about his injury history of feel he cannot carry the load of 300 carries.

I don't think to say that he is overrated because they will pass more is accurate. Opening up the offense with the pass should lead to more balance, more scoring and early leads, which means that they will be playing with a lead. This should mean that they will be running more to protect the lead and run out the clock. This all bodes well for Maroney. The only thing I would worry about is if he is completely healed.

 

[Penguin]

I like Maroney, I have him as my #2 RB on one dynasty team and my #3 on another but along with the risk concerns in '07 I have to believe that there isn't much value in where he's being drafted. For a guy that's going between 1.08-1.12 I don't see much upside. Basically he'll need 1400-1500 combined yds & 12 TD's to justify that spot, I think that's closer to his ceiling in '07. I can't see him with 1700/15 this year, I think it's more likely that he under performs on the 1400/12 or misses some time. Just my opinion but I think there's safer choices then a guy that's projected to perform closer to his ceiling then most others and is also coming off a serious shoulder injury.

 

[ravnzfan]

So, you're saying you agree that he's overrated at #10 over all?

abso-freakin'-lutely!

(I'm in the middle of a draft--I'll add commentary shortly)

 

[Joe T]

Bumping him up a few notches on my board.

How'd that work out for you Broadway G?

 

[Joe T]

So, you're saying you agree that he's overrated at #10 over all?

abso-freakin'-lutely!

(I'm in the middle of a draft--I'll add commentary shortly)

still waiting...

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Travis Henry

 

[ImTheScientist]

He hasn't played bad. Just hasn't been needed in the first two games. LT has played bad...1.9ypc average. Do you think that will continue? No. I think as the season goes on Maroney will be used more and more. He will finish top 10. It is still WAY to early in the season to consider bumping your own posts.

 

[BroadwayG]

Bumping him up a few notches on my board.

How'd that work out for you Broadway G?

Better than the poor saps who took LJ/SJ/Bush.But still pretty bad.

 

[Joe T]

You missed the most glaring concern . . . that his shoulder is still an issue. It has been relayed to me from people close to the team that in their opinion if the season started today Maroney would not be able to go.That may not matter come September as we hit July 1st, but it certainly is something to watch.

So, you're saying you agree that he's overrated at #10 over all?

I think what he was saying is that you missed the best reason to make the overrated claim.

I disagree that this is the biggest reason he is over rated.That said, I would like to discuss whether or not others agree/disagree that this guy is the most overrated player on the board as of today.

Injury is the ONLY reason he may perform to a top 10 level.The other items are weak

 

[Ignoramus]

Travis Henry

Insane.The guy's ADP was RB12 and he's leading the league in rushing. He's not found the end zone yet but with ~25 carries per game there's no way he'll continue that trend.

 

[Joe T]

He hasn't played bad. Just hasn't been needed in the first two games. LT has played bad...1.9ypc average. Do you think that will continue? No. I think as the season goes on Maroney will be used more and more. He will finish top 10. It is still WAY to early in the season to consider bumping your own posts.

You must be new here.

 

[ceo3west]

He hasn't played bad. Just hasn't been needed in the first two games. LT has played bad...1.9ypc average. Do you think that will continue? No. I think as the season goes on Maroney will be used more and more. He will finish top 10. It is still WAY to early in the season to consider bumping your own posts.

Maroney will not approach top 10. There is no evidence whatsoever that BB will increase Maroney's workload. And the way Morris looks, I wouldn't be surprised if Maroney doesn't see a GL carry all year.

 

[The Ref]

Bumping him up a few notches on my board.

How'd that work out for you Broadway G?

Ahh yes, the monday morning bump. Well Played.I'm nervous about LM, but I am sure that he get more work as the year goes on.

 

[mbuehner]

NE will run much more later in the season. Since 2002, NE runs the ball 40% more often in the 2nd half than the 1st.

In the last 5 seasons, the Patriots ran the ball 866 times in weeks 1-8, and 1191 times 9-16. Thats 325 carries, 65 per year,8.13 rushes per game.

 

[eom]

maroney is just who we thought he was.

it's tomlinson that's the most overrated of '07.

how embarrassing is it, do you think, to pop off like that and then completely fail to produce?

 

[ImTheScientist]

He hasn't played bad. Just hasn't been needed in the first two games. LT has played bad...1.9ypc average. Do you think that will continue? No. I think as the season goes on Maroney will be used more and more. He will finish top 10. It is still WAY to early in the season to consider bumping your own posts.

Maroney will not approach top 10. There is no evidence whatsoever that BB will increase Maroney's workload. And the way Morris looks, I wouldn't be surprised if Maroney doesn't see a GL carry all year.

Where is the evidence that he won't increase his workload?

 

[zamboni]

it's tomlinson that's the most overrated of '07.how embarrassing is it, do you think, to pop off like that and then completely fail to produce?

Yeah, he stinks.He started out slowly last year, and is now done facing the Bears and Patriots.

 

[jonred]

My continued hope is that Maroney will be the beneficiary of at least half of Dillion's TD production. He looked good last night when he got the rock.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

He hasn't played bad. Just hasn't been needed in the first two games. LT has played bad...1.9ypc average. Do you think that will continue? No. I think as the season goes on Maroney will be used more and more. He will finish top 10. It is still WAY to early in the season to consider bumping your own posts.

I concur with this statement althoughtop 10 may be a reach..... top 12-15, imo.