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Mr. Market (1 Viewer)

ShaHBucks

Footballguy
Wondered if you guys care to list some players you feel are being undervalued along with your main reasons why. It doesn’t matter if it’s a top 50 guy or Mr. Irrelevant. But to make it easy to read list your picks with the headline of a “Starter”, “Depth”, or “Undrafted” based on current ADP. Here are some of my notes.

Starter:

WR Eric Decker – Been a fan of his since Minnesota. Decker had some dominate stretches last year, If not for D. Thomas highlights everyone would know who the best WR is Denver is. I watched a P. Manning interview where he talked about hitting Decker on a back shoulder fade for a TD in a team scrimmage for the fans. That’s the type of chemistry I expect Manning and Decker to develop. 85rec 1200yds 10td is in reach.

WR Steve Smith – I understand if you are afraid to draft Jordy Nelson, Juilo or Cruz but when a veteran puts up a top 6 season we usually overreact. Smith did just that and still has a top Qb throwing him the football. I understand regression could set in but being ranked in the 15-20’s I don’t get. Don’t make the same mistake twice!

TE Fred Davis – Drafted this guy every time I heard the skins we’re going to a two TE system and it didn’t pay off until last year. He’s basically Aaron Hernandez to me.

Depth:

WR Austin Collie – I was already targeting Collie before the reports come out that he could be moved to the outside. Try not to laugh but roto world wrote that “He'll have to beat out Donnie Avery and rookie LaVon Brazill.” Lol When healthy he was a dominate slot receiver and he will do the same on the outside. Not running as many underneath routs can only help the concussion issue. Collie as a WR5 is beyond undervalued based on talent.

RB Toby Gerhart – Rack up 540yds and 4tds in the last 6 games to end the season and you have my attention. I don’t think Percy Harvin will carry the ball as much as he did last year and AP could use a break on third downs, insert Gerhart who had the better hands. One setback to Peterson and Gerhart is owned in 100% of leagues again.

Undrafted:

TE James Casey – Buy NFL rewind just to watch him vs. the saints last year. Complete mismatch against anyone on the field. Downside is he's never in the gameplan

TE Kyle Rudolph – 6’6 260 with ridiculous hands. If use right he’s Rob Gronkowski good. I mentioned this last year in a few "who’s the next Gronk post." Grab him as a TE2. I see him tearing up the preseason and being drafted high. I have him at or around TE #14

WR Brian Hartline – The best WR on the dolphins. Ocho should line up opposite with Bess in the slot. He’s likely my last pick of a few drafts and a guy I’ll watch in the preseason hoping to get a teams top WR as my 5th-6th.

WR Jordan Shipley – PPR watchlist. His good rookie season was forgotten due to injury last year. If he's over the injury and you add a good QB, AJ Green and Gresham to free him up he can be worth a roster spot. *Shipley was just taken of the PUP list.

WR Kris Durham – 4th round pick last year for the Seahawks but now all of a sudden the Wr corps is crowded. BMW got the boot, at 6’5 215 and 4.4 speed Durham can replace him. He is a guy I’m watching preseason in hope he can produce later. And Pete Carroll hasn’t been missing too often.

WR Riley Cooper – I’m an Eagles fan and I actually want this guy to start for Jackson. DeSean runs one rout because of his size. Cooper is the handcuff to Maclin and DeSean, remember this. When Maclin was hurt I recommended Cooper on this forum when most experts said grab Avant. He went for 70 and a TD on the Gmen that weekend, followed by 71yds vs. NE, 93yds vs Seattle, then back to the bench.

 
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Loved Graham's book!
I'm starting to see a lot of similarities based on fantasy footballs popularity. Particularly how much the news changes people's viewpoints, how much we listen and pay for expert advice especially if it's not worth the payout, and how much speculation and emotion people put on the guys they draft. Some guys are over/under valued based on past performance and how we can best project their future while factoring in risk, that's all I'm trying to spot. And hell of a book! Lol
 
And about Decker, one of the Audible Guys always points out that he can't get separation. When your really good that's actually a good thing. DB's ran side by side with Jerry Rice until he had to burn you for a TD, he tought that to TO. When Moss put his hand up he was OPEN! Part of not understanding this is why Keven Kolb isn't a fan favorite in Ari. You see Larry Fitz one on one just throw the ball to a spot. He'll either catch it, get a flag or you lose a down. I'd take those odds and I doubt Peyton Manning doesn't already realize this.

 
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Loved Graham's book!
I'm starting to see a lot of similarities based on fantasy footballs popularity. Particularly how much the news changes people's viewpoints, how much we listen and pay for expert advice especially if it's not worth the payout, and how much speculation and emotion people put on the guys they draft. Some guys are over/under valued based on past performance and how we can best project their future while factoring in risk, that's all I'm trying to spot. And hell of a book! Lol
I've built a history of FF success based off this. I zig when everyone else zags.Tangible Asset Value - I use this equation constantly when hunting for stocks to add to my watch list. There aren't many stocks out there that fit within the 30% premium of their TAV.
 

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