My FBG Trade Analyzer (1 Viewer)

[Scrap Iron]

I don't think this belongs in the AC forum since it relates more to the Trade Analyzer than the trade itself, but I will understand if it gets evicted fron the Pool...

I'm considering a trade, so I plugged it into the Trade Analyzer to see what it "thinks". I was surprised to see that the Analyzer did not like the trade. In fact it had me coming out on the losing end almost every week going forward - both for weekly Starting Lineup and Overall Roster strength (numbers at the bottom of this post). I can understand taking a hit in Overall Strength, but I just don't get the analysis of my weekly starting lineup pre- and post-trade.

My league parameters and current roster are in the system, so I think he Analyzer should have all the data it needs. My understanding is that current projections, Top 200 Forward and SOS are all factored into the Analyzer. (I have SOS weighted at 50%)

Is something amiss here or am I crazy?

* We start one QB. Not sure why, but I have stockpiled four: Romo, Newton, Tebow, Sanchez.

* We start one TE. I own O. Daniels and F. Davis

* We start three WR. I own Megatron, B. LLoyd, L. Moore, D. Moore and J. Ford

* We start three RB. I own McFadden, Mendenhall, Lynch, Ingram and Tolbert.

The potential trade is:

QB Romo, TE Daniels and WR L. Moore (from me)

for

TE R. Gronkowski, WR Garcon and RB I. Redman (to me)

In my mind (and according to Top 200 Forward), I am (a) trading a QB (Romo) who would be rated behind or close to Newton most weeks, and therefore only a part-time starter at best. Top 200 Forward has Newton several spots higher and Tebow in the same neighborhood as Romo; (b) clearly upgrading at TE; and © upgrading at WR2/3. Not to mention acquiring Redman as a Mendenhall handcuff.

Before trade:

QB Newton / Romo

WR Megatron

WR Lloyd

WR Moore / Ford / Moore

TE Daniels / Davis

After trade:

QB Newton / Tebow

WR Megatron

WR Lloyd

WR Garcon

TE Gronk

I thought that my QB depth had provided a real solid trade opportunity here, and the Top 200 Forward seems to agree. Am I not upgrading at two starting positions while downgrading at none?

The Trade Analyzer has me downright confounded. Anybody have an explanation?

Starting Lineup Overall Strength

Week Before After Diff Before After Diff

1 64.7 63.8 -0.9 104.9 95.8 -9.1

2 67.7 65.8 -1.8 112.1 97.6 -14.5

3 65.6 63.6 -2.0 111.4 99.7 -11.6

4 68.1 65.2 -2.9 114.0 98.9 -15.1

5 62.6 63.3 +0.7 109.1 111.1 +1.9

6 66.7 63.9 -2.8 107.4 93.0 -14.4

7 69.3 70.4 +1.1 97.9 94.6 -3.3

8 64.6 61.4 -3.3 107.4 89.5 -17.9

9 58.1 55.0 -3.1 114.4 92.2 -22.2

10 63.9 62.6 -1.3 102.2 92.3 -9.9

11 61.0 60.2 -0.8 84.5 73.3 -11.2

12 65.0 62.6 -2.4 107.6 95.6 -12.1

13 66.1 62.8 -3.2 105.7 90.8 -14.9

14 66.4 64.1 -2.3 114.0 101.4 -12.6

15 66.1 63.6 -2.5 109.9 96.9 -13.0

16 65.3 63.4 -1.8 110.5 99.2 -11.3

17 66.6 65.0 -1.6 125.0 112.2 -12.8

Overall -2.8% -11.1%

 

[unckeyherb]

I don't think this belongs in the AC forum since it relates more to the Trade Analyzer than the trade itself, but I will understand if it gets evicted fron the Pool...

I'm considering a trade, so I plugged it into the Trade Analyzer to see what it "thinks". I was surprised to see that the Analyzer did not like the trade. In fact it had me coming out on the losing end almost every week going forward - both for weekly Starting Lineup and Overall Roster strength (numbers at the bottom of this post). I can understand taking a hit in Overall Strength, but I just don't get the analysis of my weekly starting lineup pre- and post-trade.

My league parameters and current roster are in the system, so I think he Analyzer should have all the data it needs. My understanding is that current projections, Top 200 Forward and SOS are all factored into the Analyzer. (I have SOS weighted at 50%)

Is something amiss here or am I crazy?

* We start one QB. Not sure why, but I have stockpiled four: Romo, Newton, Tebow, Sanchez.

* We start one TE. I own O. Daniels and F. Davis

* We start three WR. I own Megatron, B. LLoyd, L. Moore, D. Moore and J. Ford

* We start three RB. I own McFadden, Mendenhall, Lynch, Ingram and Tolbert.

The potential trade is:

QB Romo, TE Daniels and WR L. Moore (from me)

for

TE R. Gronkowski, WR Garcon and RB I. Redman (to me)

In my mind (and according to Top 200 Forward), I am (a) trading a QB (Romo) who would be rated behind or close to Newton most weeks, and therefore only a part-time starter at best. Top 200 Forward has Newton several spots higher and Tebow in the same neighborhood as Romo; (b) clearly upgrading at TE; and © upgrading at WR2/3. Not to mention acquiring Redman as a Mendenhall handcuff.

Before trade:

QB Newton / Romo

WR Megatron

WR Lloyd

WR Moore / Ford / Moore

TE Daniels / Davis

After trade:

QB Newton / Tebow

WR Megatron

WR Lloyd

WR Garcon

TE Gronk

I thought that my QB depth had provided a real solid trade opportunity here, and the Top 200 Forward seems to agree. Am I not upgrading at two starting positions while downgrading at none?

The Trade Analyzer has me downright confounded. Anybody have an explanation?

Starting Lineup Overall Strength

Week Before After Diff Before After Diff

1 64.7 63.8 -0.9 104.9 95.8 -9.1

2 67.7 65.8 -1.8 112.1 97.6 -14.5

3 65.6 63.6 -2.0 111.4 99.7 -11.6

4 68.1 65.2 -2.9 114.0 98.9 -15.1

5 62.6 63.3 +0.7 109.1 111.1 +1.9

6 66.7 63.9 -2.8 107.4 93.0 -14.4

7 69.3 70.4 +1.1 97.9 94.6 -3.3

8 64.6 61.4 -3.3 107.4 89.5 -17.9

9 58.1 55.0 -3.1 114.4 92.2 -22.2

10 63.9 62.6 -1.3 102.2 92.3 -9.9

11 61.0 60.2 -0.8 84.5 73.3 -11.2

12 65.0 62.6 -2.4 107.6 95.6 -12.1

13 66.1 62.8 -3.2 105.7 90.8 -14.9

14 66.4 64.1 -2.3 114.0 101.4 -12.6

15 66.1 63.6 -2.5 109.9 96.9 -13.0

16 65.3 63.4 -1.8 110.5 99.2 -11.3

17 66.6 65.0 -1.6 125.0 112.2 -12.8

Overall -2.8% -11.1%

I do not have an answer for you, but similarly, according to this analyzer, I lose out on trading Romo and Meachem for Fitz, even though I have Cam and Eli and my WR's are atrocious-meaning Fitz would be a monster upgrade.

 

[drew05]

I believe it is a preseason tool and bases it's information off old projections/rankings.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

I believe it is a preseason tool and bases it's information off old projections/rankings.

I think this is correct. For in-season, you have to use the Trade Dominator.

 

[unckeyherb]

I believe it is a preseason tool and bases it's information off old projections/rankings.

I think this is correct. For in-season, you have to use the Trade Dominator.

and that can be found where?

 

[Bigboy10182000]

I believe it is a preseason tool and bases it's information off old projections/rankings.

I think this is correct. For in-season, you have to use the Trade Dominator.

and that can be found where?

Go to the week 7 content and look under the 19th.

 

[Apple Jack]

I believe it is a preseason tool and bases it's information off old projections/rankings.

I think this is correct. For in-season, you have to use the Trade Dominator.

and that can be found where?

There is not a Mac version, fwiw. Which sucks for me.

 

[Scrap Iron]

I believe it is a preseason tool and bases it's information off old projections/rankings.

Well, that could make sense, but that is not the case according to the information given when you use the Analyzer:

"How are the Starting Lineup numbers computed?

Step 1 is to figure out how many points per game each player is projected to score for the season. In the preseason, this is estimated from the preseason projections. During the season, it is estimated from David Dodds' weekly projections (for the current week) and Dodds' and Bob Henry's Forward Projections file (for future weeks). Step 2 is to adjust these numbers on a week-to-week basis for strength of schedule, estimated from Clayton Gray's SOS report. We also adjust the numbers based on injuries and suspensions. For example, if a player in injured in week 3 and expected to miss 2-to-4 weeks, he will be projected with zero points for the next few weeks and then (something in the vicinity of) half-as-many-as-usual points for a couple more weeks, then full strength thereafter. Step 3 is to figure out, based on those estimates for each player, which players should be in your starting lineup, and how many points we expect them to score as a unit."

The tool would be useless for re-draft leagues if it is based only on pre-season projections.

It would be nice to have this tool to help analyze trades, but based on the job it did here, I do not think I will trust it going forward.

Does anyone agree with the Analyzer and think that I'd be getting the bad end of a lop-sided deal?

 

[brainee]

Does anyone agree with the Analyzer and think that I'd be getting the bad end of a lop-sided deal?

Well, the short smart-### answer would be to tell you that you're the manager of your team ... not Dodds and company. If you like it, do it!A more constructive answer ... I know exactly what you're saying and I've seen the same poor analysis of trades I considered doing. The problem, I think, stems from how week-to-week scoring for the rest of the season is determined with these tools. While FBG puts a lot of thought and analysis into the weekly ratings (especially as we get to the end of the week), individual weekly scoring weeks ahead of time is a crapshoot. And it's heavily influenced by the matchup, rather than just the skill of the guy concerned. So while in your mind you have a clear starting guy at a position, the kind of guy you always play except for bye or injury, these FBG tools have you constantly starting guys deep on your bench because of matchups.Does that make sense? Here's an example that I'm seeing from one of my own teams right now. In an 8-team 2 QB league I have Rodgers, Romo, Newton, and Sanchez on my team. The top 3 guys cover each others byes, and I have pressing needs at other positions. Dropping Sanchez would seem to not hurt my team one bit. But according to the FBG tools, I take a huge hit from dropping him ... regardless of who I pick up as a replacement (and there are solid options, like Battle or Murray at RB or Little at WR). How can that be? Looking at my weekly scoring, FBGs seem to massively overestimate Sanchez when there's a good matchup (and knocking down my "studs" when there's a bad one). So my team's strength rating is based on starting Sanchez a few times. I think these advanced weightings give solid "rest of year" values. But you can't really get anything about your week-to-week lineup from them.

 

[Scrap Iron]

Does anyone agree with the Analyzer and think that I'd be getting the bad end of a lop-sided deal?

Well, the short smart-### answer would be to tell you that you're the manager of your team ... not Dodds and company. If you like it, do it!

Of course. Just using FBG as one source of information... like we all do. Accustomed to very high quality info here, so I was surprised to see the Analyzer give output that seemed (to me) to be flawed.

 

[Jersey35]

FWIW, your trade seems like exactly the type of trade that most people, much less a preprogrammed mathematical algorithm, are unable to properly digest.

In my experience, trades where you "lose" value, but improve your overall team are difficult for people to wrap their minds around. This happens often when you deal from a position of strength to cover a position of weakness. It is also difficult to evaluate trades where you trade from a position of strength to cover a backup position on your way to the playoffs.

You did both in this trade, and it's likely that very few average ff players would see the wisdom - much less a "trade evaluator app". Make the trade and don't lose any sleep over it.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Oh, so it is an AC topic after all.