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My own Top 5 worst & best preseason takes (1 Viewer)


We're at the end of week 10, I think there are some takes I can eat crow on and a few others to beat my chest.

Worst takes:

5 - Ridley will be a difference maker. He is, technically. He is killing my teams because I keep starting him.
4 - Gibson would be a monster.
3 - Kamara won't get the receptions people are looking for.
2 - Daniel Jones will take a step forward.
1 - Gesicki will finish near Hockenson.

There are others but those have hurt a bit. Although in truth Gesicki has been nowhere near my lineups but I definitely drafted the eff out of him.

Best takes:

5 - mid-to-late WR targets like Doubs/Nico/Shaheed/Thielen/Downs/Dell
4 - mid-to-late QB targets like Goff/Purdy/Howell/Baker
3 - mid-to-late TE targets like Ferguson, McBride, Kinkaid, Kmet
2 - Tyreek at 1.01
1 - dead zone RBs like Swift, R White, Monty, (possibly Herbert)

kind of a weird list I guess but just thought I'd put this out there, maybe others can share their own takes that have or haven't held up.

I figured that Detroit, Tampa and Houston would take steps forward this year but I thought Jacksonville would as well.
@barackdhouse , I have some similar notes. It's frustrating that injuries have made evaluation opinions tough.

I didn't get much Waller but I did trade for him in a rookie draft for 2.02- on a team that should have used the pick. I was high on him going into the year.
Similar to you on Daniel Jones.
I was hilariously high on Ridley (had him projected as WR12) and Hopkins (WR16).
I was semi-fading Garret Wilson and was right but for the wrong reason. Hope for his sake he doesn't end up a rich man's DJ Moore.

Many of the rest of the bad takes are more like incomplete.

Good takes- I'm way too superstitious for that one.
We're at the end of week 10, I think there are some takes I can eat crow on and a few others to beat my chest.

Best takes:

3 - mid-to-late TE targets like Ferguson, McBride, Kinkaid, Kmet
In retrospect I agree with this, although I'm wondering how many are like me and put off drafting top line TE and then suffered through 3-4 weeks of goose eggs with these and ended up dropping, only to become right after the players produce on someone else's roster.

1. Jahan Dotson would push London, Wilson and Olave for top WR of the class
2. Dallas Goedert over Hockenson and Kittle
3, Antonio Gibson would be doing what Brian Robinson is currently doing
4, Trevor Lawrence was going to take the step into Justin Herbert level fantasy production
5. Michael Pittman was DOA


1. ETN is an RB1
2. Amari Cooper isn't fun to draft but it's the right thing to do
3. Bijan should not be a 1st round pick
4. Lamb and Amon Ra should be 1st round picks valued right with JJ, Chase, Hill and Diggs (though a couple times I didn't have the balls to follow through)
5. Kupp was a bad 1st round pick (even before the hamstring injury)
1. Wasted my time on Jeudy w/ sunk cost fallacy.
2. Gibson
3. K. Toney
3. Dealing Joe Burrow away before they got healthy
4. Jerrick McKinnon
5. Dropping K. Hunt too soon.

1. Drafting Mark Andrews was solid to avoid TE Hell
2. Tyler Lockett>Metcalf... at cost
3. Jumping on R. Rice and more so Tank Dell ASAP, basically once I heard Stroud asked for him I was sold and then holding onto him thru concussion injury.
4. Lotto RBs: I've assembled Moss, Ford, Charb, Spears, Warren, Mitchell for my bench. I think having to do that Lotto RB thread just made me obsess over getting them. I lost Chubb/Dobbins this year so clinged to them.
5. Grabbing Jets/Browns DST and making them a committee has made me very happy.
Worst takes:
Tank Bigsby was gonna be a thing.
Darren Waller was gonna be elite.
Antonio Gibson and Jahan Dotson were going to be massive steals.

Best takes:
Be very high on the Lions offense...I think that was my only good take!
Worst takes:
Tank Bigsby was gonna be a thing.
Darren Waller was gonna be elite.
Antonio Gibson and Jahan Dotson were going to be massive steals.

Best takes:
Be very high on the Lions offense...I think that was my only good take!
This was my worst rookie dynasty take as well. I was sure he was going to get receiving work and goal line work, and wasn’t high on Etienne. I actually thought Bigsby might overtake Etienne by the end of the year.

Etienne has looked excellent and Bigsby hasn’t just looked bad, but borderline off the roster cut as a rookie. He’s had at least two passes go through his hands that ended up as INTs. He single handidly kept the Colts game close with a bizarre fumble play. He hasn’t looked very explosive and consistently seems lost.

My best take was rookie dynasty Stroud / AR 15 >>>> Bryce Young. Why anyone would draft a guy with the body of a high school freshman is beyond me. Easiest #1 pick bust maybe ever.
Worst takes:

Not bad value compared to round I took them or $ paid in auction but production is not great
Gibson - took him everywhere

Reached for him everywhere:

Taking a flyer on Kendre Miller in a couple keeper leagues instead of Achane

Grabbing Jordan Love in Super Flex as QB2 or 3

Took Christian Watson in several leagues

Drafted no Stroud, Collins, Dell - this wasn't a take but I'm still sad 😓

Best takes:

Grabbed these guys on almost all teams
Browns D
Brandon Aubrey
Sam Howell
Kenneth Walker
Gibbs or Hall

Ignored Patriots, Raiders, Giants, Titans and Cardinals in drafts & auctions (have since picked up a player or two from these squads)
Last edited:
I’ll have to think about this a little and list more out later but off top of my head the thing I was most wrong about was Ridley. Still don’t think it’s because of him but does not matter either.
Bad takes:
Drafting from the 12 spot, go old school and take Saquon and Pollard. Looked good for a stretch- looks putrid now.

Antonio Gibson is a steal.

Lamar will be just as good as Maholmes and Hurts.

You can put together a decent team with Lockett, Gabe Davis, Michael Thomas as your starting WRs.

Waller is gonna be top 3 TE

Decent takes:
Pick up Puka off waivers Week 1

Can’t get Hurts, AJ or Devonta? Goedert and Jake Elliott are good pick-ups.

You can get by streaming Defenses every year
Right off the top of my head one of my biggest off-season misses has been Miles Sanders. Seemed like a lock for 300 touches while the rookie #1 pick makes the transition into the NFL.
had him in everything! Christian Watson-tried to get him in everything. thank god only got him in 2 out of 6 leagues.
Worst takes:
Ridley is a borderline wr1
Toney could be a league winner
Treylon breakout 😢
Cam Akers is going to pick up where he left off at the end of the season 🥴
Geno is a qb1 you can get late in superflex

Best takes:
Mostert as the best double digit round rb pick
Kamara is an rb1 in round 6/7
Pitts breakout ain't happening this year
Addison is the highest scoring rookie wr
DK in round 3 makes no sense

Leaning into the first 2 good takes in most of my redraft leagues has helped cover a whole lot of bad decisions elsewhere.
Punt QB. Took Sam Howell with my last pick. People even laughed at that.
Do whatever it takes to get Tyreek Hill. I didn't draft high enough but traded away what seemed like a lot to get him on board, it wasn't.

Believing in Miles Sanders
Believing in Diontae Johnson
Best takes:

1) Tank Dell and Zay Flowers are gonna start a new wave of WRs and be very productive in the NFL (and fantasy)
2) Lamb is top, top elite tier
3) J Jefferson wouldn't finish top 5 for WRs (I'm claiming a W, even tho it's shameful to do)
4) Nico Collins is going to be a solid receiver in the NFL

Worst Takes:
1) Najee Harris. Might have a strong 2nd half, but ew.
2) Thinking Allen Robinson was gonna have a mini-comeback
3) Basically anything RB related
Best takes
1) They paid Monty and he was going to be in a great position to vastly exceed his draft spot
2) Mostert would still have juice in that offense and was a great RB lotto pick (drafted both)
3) Christian Kirk would still be the guy Lawrence gravitates towards and would out produce Ridley
4) CeeDee Lamb was the best mid season buy low in the history of mankind
5) Draft all Lions

Worst takes
1) Bigsby would make Etienne less valuable due to goal line work
2) Lawrence would take the next step forward after a 25 TD, 8 INT season. Had to happen with growth and Ridley addition, right?
3) Pollard would be fantasy gold
4) Russell Wilson would be a totally lost cause. Payton has had a huge impact on him with decision making
5) Avoid all Rams. McVay finds a way. When Stafford was healthy RB's and WR's outperformed where they were drafted
6) Mayfield would be terrible. Avoid all Buc receivers at draft position
Worst takes:

1. Mentioned this upthread but it starts with Ridley. By the time the season had rolled around I had him as WR11 and felt cocksure about it.

2. Cole Kmet and DJ Moore. I don't believe in Justin Fields ability as a passer so had no interest in either of these but Moore was producing at a high level with him and Kmet with and without him in TE premium leagues. Not consistent, but overall strong and if Fields had not gone down I think I'd have looked more off.

3. Mostert. I don't like old RB's, he had never really done a lot and Miami seemed to constantly be on the hunt for another RB and I had no interest in this guy who heading into this week might be best pick of the year.

4. I said Bigsbly would be as problematic for ETN as Charbs would be to Walker. This actually looked like a solid call the first few weeks of the season but is now way off. This did not lead me to drafting much of Bigsb, but it did led me to pretty much not touching ETN at his price.

5. I wanted to refrain from injuries as that's not the spirit of this IMO but I saved this one for last as it was the biggest negative to my fantasy season. We had that tier of WR's who were usually late mid first to very early second round picks which usually included ASB, AJB, Diggs, Lamb and Wilson. I had Mr. Wilson atop that list and again this was super impactful to me as high majority of my drafts I drew picks in the later part of round one. Now if Rodgers does not go down maybe I stood a chance, but Garrett would have needed to increase his production 50% to really be in the mix with the others. Maybe he would have and this is just injury related but again hard for me to do this and not list what has been my biggest negative impact to my teams on the year.

Best takes:

1. The league had shifted smaller on the defensive side and there was not as much reason to be down on smaller players or to be a slave to stats like "no player this small had done this since X" type of mindset. Achane, Tank, Downs, Keaton Mitchell just to name a few.(***Just to note if you still are not a fan of the small WR's this draft class was made for you!****)

2. I'll tie two things together. Being more confident in ACL recovery timelines and along with that investing in players that due to returning from an injury or suspension did not project as much use early in the season. Kamara, Kupp, Taylor, Breece and Javonte headline this group which might soon if not already include Kyler. Varying degrees of success here with Kupp maybe the only one everyone would consider the miss? But this all relative to where they dipped so when I mention Kupp I'm talking more of a third-fourth round buy,Taylor 6-7th, Breece 4th-5th, Javonte and Kamara 6-7th. The two RB's coming off ACL I had little expectations for early in the season so I'm not really focusin on YTD PPG which is why I put them in this group asI thought both of them would struggle the first few weeks and I trying to bench them both if I could. I just think the discounts on this group was a nice win on the whole so far, Kupp again being the major one I'd say was not, but if you got any of them at their low prices and are still in the mix I bet you are glad you did on all of them.

3. Jamhyr Gibbs now and forever. I said at one point I was not sure he was ever going to be a top 3 RB at any point in his career but I thought due to his age and that he'd not be overused that if his health held up he could give you 6+ RB1 seasons-which is more of a dynasty take. I might have lowballed him a little tbh. but my belief in him was strong. Now it did waver a little after the first few weeks but I'm keeping this as my pre-season thoughts.

4. Najee Harris. I did a few FFPC Main Event drafts with a friend of mine who allows/makes me decide on every pick. He usually has a few players he likes and I'll try and get some of them on a team or two, at minimum use it to decide close calls and maybe a way for me to work a player or two on my team I'd not normally draft. We've been doing some drafts together for over 20 years and I can't recall being as adamant about not drafting someone relative to where he was going(which was third/super early 4th at the time) as I was about not drafting Najee and I can't recall him fighting harder for me to draft someone. We did 3 drafts, drew mid to late picks in each one and in each of those I had to firmly hold despite some uncharacteristically strong pushback from my friend. Typically when he's that passionate about a player I'd work him in one of those 3 leagues but this was not a case where I wanted to cover my bases or work someone in, was not having it.

5. A bit low hanging fruit since a lot of QB's are super close but I did have Jalen Hurts as QB1 and he's the only QB in non Best Ball leagues I used a top three round pick o draft and took him as high as top of round 3.
1. Bought into the Waller hype
2. Thought Dalvin Cook might still be relevant
3. Was pretty sure Akers was going to be the guy
4. Avoided Nico Collins 'cuz his QB
5. Over-drafted Jeudy thinking he'd pick up where he left off

1. Drafted Achane eveywhere
2. Same with Warren
3. Drafted Howell in 2QB
4. Figured Addison would get some
5. Picked up Puka and Kyren ahead of the rush
I'm going to go by who I really touted on the board and who I wound up drafting because the proof is in the pudding.

Best Takes:

1) I have Mostert in both FFA leagues I participate in. He's been a godsend.
2) Kendre Miller is for next year so I have him nowhere in redraft and I have Alvin Kamara all over the place (dynasty and both FFA leagues). All you had to do was watch Alvin preseason first game back to know this.
3) Tony Pollard would not get the volume of 20+ rushes per game, and would be problematic without Zeke (I have him in one league where he nuked me worse than I even expected)
4) Tyreek Hill is worth any first-round pick you can muster
5) Thought Bryce Young was in serious trouble once I saw a few college games and saw the preseason and that A Rich would be good

Worst Takes:

1) Jahan Dotson second year leap. I believed hard. Matt Harmon still does, but I ain't seeing it.
2) Miles Sanders (but that was more hoping than anything) would be a viable RB2
3) Tank Dell and the small receivers wouldn't break on through
4) The tight end class. I punted in dynasty. That was so, so stupid and could affect me negatively for years. I had the 2.7 and 2.12 and didn't take one. Oof.
5) Bijan Robinson was worthy of the number four pick in Summerpalooza over other backs guaranteed volume (now three of those backs got hurt for significant stretches, but should have seen Arthur Smith coming)

Three things that continue to not surprise me that I've thought

1) Kyle Pitts's continued mediocrity and the rise of Jonnu Smith, possibly due to Arthur Smith, but who cares?
2a) Khalil Herbert is one of the best pure runners in the game according to advanced metrics, and he's done it again when healthy this year
2b) D'Onta Foreman signed with the wrong team and is a starting NFL running back
3) Travis Etienne is good for fantasy. Waldman can quibble all he wants about between the tackles; ETN's usage speaks volumes about his volume

Three things I've been wrong about that have bitten me in some way

1) CeeDee Lamb is that good. I was so enamored of speed when we rookie drafted that I passed
2) I traded away AJ Brown and Javonte Williams for DK Metcalf, Breece Hall, and Courtland Sutton. That's sort of a wash, but A.J. Brown is the man I thought he'd never be
3) Miles Sanders (again) was a good NFL running back. Could be injuries, but Chuba has done okay behind that line. Sanders has done poorly and lost his job.

Three things remaining to be seen

1) Breece Hall is that guy. Jury is still out because of Zach and the offensive line of the Jets.
2) Christian Watson is Martavis Bryant waiting to happen. I stole that from Matt Harmon, but I still believe in him even if he's a lousy high pointer and contested catch guy.
3) Is Ja'Marr Chase better than some of the guys that score more fantasy points than him, like A.J. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, and Amon Ra St. Brown? I say yes, and emphatically.

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