My projections for 2009 (1 Viewer)

[Billymac24]

I have done this the past 3 years, but never felt confident enough to share them; not sure I am more confident this year, but interested in any comments.

The process:

1. I start out with my projections for the NFL as a whole..(You would be surprised how much it does NOT change from year to year).

2. I then project each team (# of plays and % pass/rush, Yards and % Pass/Rush, TD and % pass/rush)

3. Then I take all the players and project what percentage of each scoring category I think they will have over the coming season.

All this input then gives me my player projections.

A few nice things about this method:

- As training camp and pre-season offer insight into team/player tendencies, I can adjust either the team or the player projections and %.

- It all adds up receiving = passing

- I also have a scoring input tab where you can input your league rules (FYI...the bonus pieces do not work)

As the pre-season and training camps progress, I usually will take the SOS by week and calculate weekly projections for players. I use this to break any ties, and if there are players that have an significantly easier early season schedule, I willl bump up their projections for my final cheatsheet.

My Projections for 2009

Let me know,

Billy

 

[Deuce'sWild]

Very impressive. Your projections look very similar to mine (and FBGs staff).

Thanks for sharing it.

 

[Billymac24]

Thanks for the feedback. I am sure the projections at this point are similar to FBG and most sites, as I like to start with a somewhat solid base before I start tweaking. The beauty of the spreadsheeet is that it is easy to tweak.

 

[Darko M]

docs.google.com

 

[Billymac24]

I would have used google docs, but the file is 2 MB.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

where did you get this spreadsheet?

 

[Billymac24]

I made it myself

 

[Deuce'sWild]

very cool. I usually just use the projections dominator and tweak it to my liking.

 

[Billymac24]

One suggestion...once you get the projections the way you like, you need to copy and paste special the player projections tab. that way you can sort, filter, create a cheatsheet....whatever. You cannot do this with the player projection tab now because it has too many formulas in it.

 

[moleculo]

looks good - lots of work.

I went through all of this last year, and my stumbling block was trying to kep up with all 32 teams - I simply don't have the bandwidth to manage detailed projections for the whole league. I dropped the ball in some key areas and it came back to bite me come draft time.

How are you dealing with this?

eta: what did you use as a baseline, and how do you ensure everything balances?

 

[Billymac24]

1. I started with the 32 teams and came up with what I thought were reasonable projections for (Number of plays and what percentage of those would be run/pass, then did the same for yards and TDs. Fumbles were basically last year numbers, completion percentage and interceptions were based on last year with some tweaks based on new QB or new system or OL changes. I tried to look at 3 year averages at both the team and the league level to ensure my numbers were reasonable.

2. Once I have the league and team totals....I created a worksheet with all the players in the league. Here is where I kind of cheated. I took basically the stats from the FBG free projections and determined what % of each scoring category FBG had their players. I then applied that baseline to my league/team projections. Saved a ton of time and probably several mistakes.

3. Everything stays in balance because # of receptions is based on # of completions, and # of receiving TD is based on # of passing TD.

4. Since my initial projections, I have tweaked some players one way or another based on feedback on the forums or gut feelings. I will continue to do this throughout training camps and pre-season as more information is made available.

Tweaking is easy, I can either change the league/team totals and % which pretty much always stays in balance. If I change the player percentages, I have to change at least 2 players....so that a column always equals 100%. IE if I think Marion Barber will get more carries that I initially projected, I will up his % and lower either Felix Jones or Tashard Choice, or both. This is somewhat manual, but I really do not see an easy alternative.